【上】如果1941年希特勒没有入侵苏联，而是继续执行《海狮行动》并入侵英国，将会是什么结局？英国能否挺住？美国会协同守护英国吗？
正文翻译
评论翻译
Kutluk Özgüven, history buff
I am surprised so many fantastic answers lack the basics. War needs oil. Germans needed oil desperately and quickly. Britain did not have oil, Azerbaijan, Iran and Iraq had. So they had three routes: (1) Vichy North Africa to Egypt to Iraq, (2) Turkey to all destinations, (3) Russia to Azerbaijan.
North African route was ideal but it was nowhere near success.
Turkey was a choice for invasion. People expected invasion. Turkish army withdrew from Europe and positioned in Asia. But Turkey had mountaneous terrain, easily blockable bad roads and a stubborn martial culture ideal for guerilla warfare. Hitler thought Turkey too much of a fight. Turks played a neutral but German appeasing friendly tune until Hitler was stuck elsewhere.
Soviet unx on the other hand was a dictatorship with many nationalities and a culture of party fratricide. The country was flat and with several roads. Hitler believed once a shock attack succeeded the USSR would have collapsed. So he attacked and his scouts made it down to Caucasus after which he would have free oil for a long war. But the southern 6th army, the army of securing free oil, couldn’t pass the Volga and annihilated around Stalingrad.
As a result the Third Reich was stuck with Romanian oil, which wasn’t enough for endless heavy tank maneouvering and moving forces and resources between huge distances. German forces became less mobile.
No oil meant the war was a lost cause in 1943. Allies could have easily cut a deal then but war is a good thing for military industrial complex as well as banks. Especially guaranteed to win wars.
What kept Hitler in war in 1943 was the hope of new strategic weapons: Heisenberg a-bomb, V2 that delivered, heavily armed jets and others.
An invasion of US-supported heavily populated rainy Britain would have been pointless for an oil-poor dying empire.
令我感到意外的是，这么多精彩的回答里都缺乏最基本的常识——战争需要大量石油的支撑。当时德国军队急需大量石油，可英国并没有德国想要的这种资源，但是阿塞拜疆、伊朗和伊拉克这几个国家却拥有大量石油资源。所以，德国人有三种路线可供选择：一、从法国维希政府掌控下的北非开始出发，进攻埃及，然后直达伊拉克；二、通过土耳其来抵达所有目的国；三、通过苏联来抵达阿塞拜疆。
其中，北非这条路线是最理想的，但基本是不可能实现的。
进攻土耳其是一种可选方案，土耳其人盼望外部势力干涉，而且当时土耳其军队也撤出了欧洲地区，并驻扎在亚洲。但是，考虑到土耳其的多山地形、易堵塞的糟糕道路和根深蒂固的游击战思想，希特勒认为，进攻土耳其的代价很大。而且，在希特勒的军队被困在其他战场之前，土耳其一直都是选择中立态度和绥靖政策。
相比之下，苏联在本质上是一个多民族的毒菜统治国家，而且还有一种内部残杀的政党文化。这个国家地势平坦，有几条主要的道路。希特勒认为，一旦闪电战获得胜利，苏联就会土崩瓦解。于是，希特勒对前苏联发动了战争，一旦德军进入高加索地区，他们就可以获得免费的石油来打一场长期的战争。然而，在苏联负责守卫石油的南部第六集团军却未能通过伏尔加河，最终在斯大林格勒地区附近被苏联军队全歼。
结果，第三帝国的军队被罗马尼亚石油限制住了，这些石油根本无法维持德国重型坦克的机动，以及远距离输送军队和资源。于是，德国军队的机动性被削弱了。
缺乏石油就是导致德国1943年失败的原因。当时的同盟国可以轻易地达成协议，但是战争对于军工企业和银行来说是一件好事，尤其是注定会胜利的战争。
希特勒一直顽抗到1943年，因为他一直寄希望于战略武器：比如海森堡原子弹、V2导弹、重型战斗机和其他武器。
对于一个缺油而且即将死亡的帝国而言，如果继续入侵一个人口密集、多雨而且得到美国支持的英国，将会把这个帝国拖入无底深渊。
I am surprised so many fantastic answers lack the basics. War needs oil. Germans needed oil desperately and quickly. Britain did not have oil, Azerbaijan, Iran and Iraq had. So they had three routes: (1) Vichy North Africa to Egypt to Iraq, (2) Turkey to all destinations, (3) Russia to Azerbaijan.
North African route was ideal but it was nowhere near success.
Turkey was a choice for invasion. People expected invasion. Turkish army withdrew from Europe and positioned in Asia. But Turkey had mountaneous terrain, easily blockable bad roads and a stubborn martial culture ideal for guerilla warfare. Hitler thought Turkey too much of a fight. Turks played a neutral but German appeasing friendly tune until Hitler was stuck elsewhere.
Soviet unx on the other hand was a dictatorship with many nationalities and a culture of party fratricide. The country was flat and with several roads. Hitler believed once a shock attack succeeded the USSR would have collapsed. So he attacked and his scouts made it down to Caucasus after which he would have free oil for a long war. But the southern 6th army, the army of securing free oil, couldn’t pass the Volga and annihilated around Stalingrad.
As a result the Third Reich was stuck with Romanian oil, which wasn’t enough for endless heavy tank maneouvering and moving forces and resources between huge distances. German forces became less mobile.
No oil meant the war was a lost cause in 1943. Allies could have easily cut a deal then but war is a good thing for military industrial complex as well as banks. Especially guaranteed to win wars.
What kept Hitler in war in 1943 was the hope of new strategic weapons: Heisenberg a-bomb, V2 that delivered, heavily armed jets and others.
An invasion of US-supported heavily populated rainy Britain would have been pointless for an oil-poor dying empire.
令我感到意外的是，这么多精彩的回答里都缺乏最基本的常识——战争需要大量石油的支撑。当时德国军队急需大量石油，可英国并没有德国想要的这种资源，但是阿塞拜疆、伊朗和伊拉克这几个国家却拥有大量石油资源。所以，德国人有三种路线可供选择：一、从法国维希政府掌控下的北非开始出发，进攻埃及，然后直达伊拉克；二、通过土耳其来抵达所有目的国；三、通过苏联来抵达阿塞拜疆。
其中，北非这条路线是最理想的，但基本是不可能实现的。
进攻土耳其是一种可选方案，土耳其人盼望外部势力干涉，而且当时土耳其军队也撤出了欧洲地区，并驻扎在亚洲。但是，考虑到土耳其的多山地形、易堵塞的糟糕道路和根深蒂固的游击战思想，希特勒认为，进攻土耳其的代价很大。而且，在希特勒的军队被困在其他战场之前，土耳其一直都是选择中立态度和绥靖政策。
相比之下，苏联在本质上是一个多民族的毒菜统治国家，而且还有一种内部残杀的政党文化。这个国家地势平坦，有几条主要的道路。希特勒认为，一旦闪电战获得胜利，苏联就会土崩瓦解。于是，希特勒对前苏联发动了战争，一旦德军进入高加索地区，他们就可以获得免费的石油来打一场长期的战争。然而，在苏联负责守卫石油的南部第六集团军却未能通过伏尔加河，最终在斯大林格勒地区附近被苏联军队全歼。
结果，第三帝国的军队被罗马尼亚石油限制住了，这些石油根本无法维持德国重型坦克的机动，以及远距离输送军队和资源。于是，德国军队的机动性被削弱了。
缺乏石油就是导致德国1943年失败的原因。当时的同盟国可以轻易地达成协议，但是战争对于军工企业和银行来说是一件好事，尤其是注定会胜利的战争。
希特勒一直顽抗到1943年，因为他一直寄希望于战略武器：比如海森堡原子弹、V2导弹、重型战斗机和其他武器。
对于一个缺油而且即将死亡的帝国而言，如果继续入侵一个人口密集、多雨而且得到美国支持的英国，将会把这个帝国拖入无底深渊。
Tudor Ion, I am a history nerd
If Hitler had tried to invade Britain on June 22, 1941, entire Europe would have entered under the domination of the USSR.
This is the most possible outcome for a German invasion of Britain in 1941. Entire Europe ( maybe with the exception of Spain and Portugal ) would have been either annexed into the USSR or transformed in puppet states.
Let’s analyze what will bring to this outcome:
Firstly, we should revive Wehrmacht capabilities to invade Britain in June 1941. I will take this date and not other because then Axis invaded USSR ( Russia was only a Republic inside of the unx and Germans had to invade before Ukraine, a part of Poland, Belarus and the Baltic States before they reached Russia ).
If Hitler had tried to invade Britain Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe would have played the essential role. The Heer ( the Land Forces ) would have never put the foot on the soil of Britain if Germans hadn’t had the supremacy in air and on water.
German Navy didn’t have any chance in front of the Royal Navy. Kriegsmarine had a very clear disadvantage from the start of the War. Despite its losses in WW1, budget cuts and the advance of the American and Japanese navies, Royal Navy was still undoubtedly the most powerful navy in the World at the time. It had over 1,400 vessels, among them: 7 aircraft carries, 66 cruisers, 184 destroyers, 15 battleships and 60 submarines. Kriegsmarine had at the beginning of the War only 4 battleships, 6 heavy cruisers, 6 light cruisers and 21 destroyers. The single sector where Germans were in advantage was submarines. To make things worse, during the Battle of Norway Kriegsmarine had lost one heavy cruiser, 10 destroyers and 3 light cruisers. It was impossible for Germans to produce more ships than Britan during the War.
It’s true, the Royal Navy had to fight all around the World, from the North Sea and Atlantic to the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but had the capacity to protect the islands from any attempt of a German invasion.
Also, the Germans didn’t even have a landing vehicle. They were planning to use river barges ( !!! ) for the invasion.
Now about Aviation. In this aspect, the Germans stayed better. In 1939 Luftwaffe was one of the best airforces in the World. It had some of the most modern aircraft and some of the best-trained pilots ( many of them with experience from the Spanish Civil War). But it had a big problem: the numbers. The single years when German aircraft production was bigger than the British ones were 1939 ( 8,295 vs 7,940 ) and 1943 ( when already it didn’t matter because Americans were in the War ). In 1940 the production of aircraft for Germany and the UK were: 10,862 vs 15,049 and respectively 12,401 vs 20,094. Let’s not forget about two other two important aspects: the Lend-Lease and the oil. In the case of an invasion, the British could have requested more aircraft from the USA and also ask for some oil. Germans had to rely only on its own production and the oil imported from Romania ( I know Germany imported oil from USSR too but I think the oil deliveries from the Soviets will suddenly start to drop, you will see later why ).
It will be a hard battle for the British but the victory will be on their side.
Not least, let’s speak about the land forces. There isn’t any question, in 1941 the Heer was most probably the most powerful land army in the World. There were only two land forces who could have put a resistance: the USA Army ( on the other side of the Atlantic ) and the Red Army ( what it really did ). But there is a problem for Germans: they weren’t capable to use their entire force on the British. They were barely capable of landing infantry troops. There wasn’t any chance to land tanks and artillery in the first wave of the invasion.
On the other hand, we have the British Army. At the start of the War, it wasn’t in the best possible state ( after years of budget cuts ) but it made great progress daily. They were capable to evacuate the biggest part of the Expeditionary Corp after the Battle of France had been lost. This means around 550,000 soldiers ( if you count the French ones). Unfortunately, they had to left behind a great amount of equipment.
Also, in May 1940, it was founded the Home Guard, an armed citizen militia formed of men who were too young or too old for the military service. Its scope was to assist the regular army against a German invasion and organize the resistance in case the islands would have been occupied.
Finally, after the Fall of France, the British started to build up fortifications all across the islands.
In conclusion, any German attempt to invade the UK would have ended in a disaster.
Secondly, let’s analyze the reaction of the USA and the USSR in this scenario.
The USA most probably would have not intervened directly. FDR would have wanted to declare war on Germany but he would not have had a casus belli. He would have had to wait until Pearl Harbor and until then the invasion would have been repelled already. FDR would have to limit only to send a more extended Lend-Lease than in our timeline.
Now about the reaction of the USSR in this scenario. I think the most possible outcome would be the Soviet invasion of Europe.
Stalin had everything to invade Germany. He had:
Motivation: the spreading of the communism
Capacity: in 1941 the Red Army outnumbered the Germans in almost everything.
Occasion: what better time than when your two greatest enemies: the Capitalists and the Fascists are busy killing each other?
If Stalin tries to invade Europe how time Hitler is busy losing the last pieces of Kriegsmarine, a huge number of aircraft and tens of thousands of soldiers in the British Channel I think he would have a very good chance.
British didn’t have the capacity to stop the Soviets. They would have rolled over Germany, through France until they would have reached the Atlantic. I am curious about the reaction of the UK and USA in this scenario.
Susanna Viljanen, works at Aalto University
In 1941 Germany was in no position anymore to attack Britain.
The reason is that a) Luftwaffe had lost the Battle of Britain and the cadre of the most experienced and seasoned aviators and b) Kriegsmarine had been all but obliterated - it was no longer a fighting force.
A successful invasion requires air superiority, naval superiority, dedicated landing craft and secure logistics. And I would call the secure logistics the most crucial aspect for a successful invasion. Germany simply did not have it.
The Battle of Britain had been a catastrophe to Luftwaffe. Vernichtende Niederlage. While the 1,700-odd aircraft lost in action and accidents were replaceable, the 2,500 seasoned, experienced and skilled aircrew were not. And not only that, but the Blitz had been a failure as well. Too many bomber aircraft and their experienced crews had been lost. The Royal Air Force had been bled, but not defeated, and in 1941 it was far stronger than 1940; most of the Battle of Britain aircrew had survived, and the aircraft factories had cranked out aircraft with knobs turned up to 11. The Luftwaffe simply was in no position any longer to gain aerial superiority. The reason is the abysmally bad range of the Bf 109E, and the Bf 110 simply would have been butchered as in 1940.
By 1941 the UK had won the Battle of the Atlantic and obliterated the Kriegsmarine. The Kriegsmarine was no longer a fighting force - it was merely a raiding force. It attempted to avoid the White Ensign as much as possible, and concentrate on the Red Ensign. Royal Navy - including the Fleet Air Arm - would have had complete naval supremacy. When Operation Barbarossa began on 22.6. 1941, Germany had one intact and one damaged battlecruiser, one incomplete battleship, one incomplete carrier, four intact heavy cruisers, two intact light cruisers and twenty destroyers. Not much to challenge the Royal Navy.
The German generals and admirals were not stupid. They knew what the outcome would be. And they also knew that a) they had no suitable landing craft and b) airborne operations on a large scale were extremely risky - the Netherlands operation had been almost a complete catastrophe.
For a successful invasion, you need to seize a bridgehead, you need to seize an airhead and you need to establish supply lines. Without the logistics, the invasion will peter out and fail, like Dieppe 1942. It is not enough to seize a bridgehead and secure it, you also need copious amounts of fuel, lubricants, victuals, spares, supplies, medicines and other provisions.
如果希特勒选择在1941年6月22日进攻英国，最终的结果是：整个欧洲地区都将被苏联掌控。
如果德国在1941年入侵英国，这将是最可能发生的结果。整个欧洲地区（也许西班牙和葡萄牙除外）都会被苏联兼并，或者成为苏联的傀儡国家。
我们来分析下出现这种结果的原因：
首先，我们假设德国国防军在1941年6月有能力入侵英国，我们选择这个日期的原因是，当时轴心国开始入侵苏联（由于俄罗斯只是苏联的一个共和国而已，所以，在抵达俄罗斯领土前，德国人必须先要入侵乌克兰、波兰部分地区、白俄罗斯和波罗的海诸国）。
如果希特勒尝试入侵英国，那么纳粹德国的海军和空军将会成为战争主力。如果德国无法占据空中和海面优势的话，那么德国的陆军根本就没有机会踏上英国的土地。
然而，在英国皇家海军面前，德国海军根本就没有任何获胜的机会。战争开始，德国海军就展示出了自己的劣势：除了在一战中的损失之外，德国还削减了海军的军事预算，不仅如此，美国和日本海军也开始崛起，皇家海军还是当时最为强大的海军。英国皇家海军拥有1400艘作战船只，其中包括：7艘航空母舰、66艘巡洋舰、184艘驱逐舰、15艘战列舰和60艘潜艇。相比之下，战争初期的德国海军仅仅拥有4艘战列舰、6艘重型巡洋舰、6艘轻型巡洋舰和21艘驱逐舰。而德国唯一占据优势的，就是潜艇。更加糟糕的是，在挪威一战中，德国海军损失了1艘重型巡洋舰、10艘驱逐舰和3艘轻型巡洋舰。在战争时期，德国基本上无法制造更多的作战船只了。
当然，英国皇家海军的战场遍布整个世界，从北海到大西洋、太平洋和印度洋，但是，它仍然有能力保卫自己的本土免受德国入侵。
而且，德国人根本就没有登陆艇。他们甚至打算用驳船（！！！）来入侵英国。
现在来谈一谈空军。在这一领域，德国稍微占据优势。1939年，纳粹德国空军跻身世界最强空军行列，它拥有世界上最先进的战斗机和经验最丰富的飞行员（其中许多都在西班牙内战中获得了丰富的作战经验）。但是，纳粹德国空军有一个大问题：仅仅在1939年（8295架对7940架）和1943年（德国飞机数量已无关紧要，因为美国已经参战），德国战机的生产数量超过了英国，而在1940年，德国和英国的飞机制造数量分别为10862比15049和12401比20094。而且，我们不要忘了另外十分重要的两点因素：贷款和石油。一旦国家遭受外敌入侵，英国能够从美国获取更多的作战飞机和石油。反观德国，它的石油只能通过国内生产，或者从罗马尼亚进口（我知道，德国可以从苏联那里获取石油，但是很快，从苏联获取的石油数量会突然猛跌，稍后你就明白原因了。）
在这场战争里对英国将面临一场苦战，但是，胜利的天平仍然会向英国倾斜。
最重要的一环，让我们来讨论下陆军。毫无疑问，1941年的德国陆军是世界上最强大的力量。世界上只有两只力量能够与之抗衡，那就是美国陆军（在大西洋的另外一边）和苏联红军（也在实际中和德军较量）。但是，德国人面临着一个问题：他们无法将自己所有的陆军都投入到对付英国之中。德国人很难派步兵登陆英国，更不要说在首轮进攻中使用坦克和火炮了。
另外一方面，英国也拥有自己的陆军。在战争初期，英国陆军状态并不太好（由于多年的预算削减所导致），但是之后，英国陆军开始取得巨大的提升。在输掉法国战役后，英国军队能够将远征军的大部分军队撤退到本土，这意味着550000名士兵（如果加上法国士兵的话）。不幸的是，他们抛弃了大量的武器装备。
同样，在1940年5月，英国成立了英国地方军，该军由不适宜作战的老人和孩子组成。其目的就是协助正规军抵抗德国的入侵，并在英国本岛被占领的情况下，继续组织抵抗运动。
最后，当整个法国沦陷后，英国开始所有岛屿上建造防御工事。
总结来说，如果德军试图入侵英国，结果将会是灾难性的。
其次，我们来分析下，如果德军入侵英国，美国和苏联分别会有如何回应。
极有可能，美国不会直接出兵干预。美国总统罗斯福希望对德宣战，但苦于找不到开战的借口。所以，他只能等到出现类似珍珠港这样的事件时才能宣战，但此时德国的入侵早已被英国击退了。所以，罗斯福只能向英国提供周期更长的战争贷款。
现在，来讨论下苏联可能的回应。我认为，一旦德国入侵英国，整个欧洲地区都会面临苏联的侵略。
因为，斯大林拥有入侵德国的一切必要条件：
入侵德国的动机：传播意识形态
军队规模：1941年的苏联红军，几乎在所有方面都超越了德军
战机：当你的两个头号敌人：资本家和法西斯分子在互相残杀时，还有比这更好的进攻机会吗？
当希特勒在损失自己仅有的国防军、并把大量的战机和成千上万士兵布置在英国海峡附近时，这就是斯大林入侵欧洲的最佳时机。
英国人根本就没有能力阻挡住当时的苏联红军。所以，一旦德国入侵英国，苏联红军将会越过德国、法国，并直达大西洋。在这种局势下，我很想知道，英国和美国将会有和反应呢？
1941年，德军根本就无力进攻英国了。
原因如下：一、在不列颠之战中，纳粹德国空军输掉了战争，并损失了自己最精锐的军事干部和最有经验的飞行员。二、纳粹德国空军已经被摧毁了，它再也不具备战斗力了。
想要实施入侵的一方，必须要获得空中优势、海上优势、专用的登陆艇和安全的补给线。而我认为，安全的补给线是成功实施入侵的最重要一环。可德国并不具备这一条件。
对于纳粹德国空军而言，大不列颠战役简直就是一场灾难和彻底毁灭。在战斗中损失的1700多架战斗机是可以替代的，然而，德国损失的2500名具有丰富经验的飞行员却根本无法补充。虽然英国也遭遇了挫折，损失了很多的战机和丰富经验的飞行员，而且英国皇家空军一直在流血，但是它并没有被击败。1941年的英国皇家空军实力反而超过了1940年，在大不列颠战役中，大多数飞行员都幸存下来了。而且英国的飞机制造厂开始加大马力制造战斗机。纳粹德国空军再也无法获得空中优势。其原因是，纳粹德国的Bf 109E战斗机航程极短，而Bf 110战斗机在1940年都已被击落。
1941年，英国赢得了大西洋海战，并摧毁了纳粹德国海军。自此，纳粹德国海军再也无法有效作战，只能执行侵袭任务而已；它只能尽量避开英国皇家海军，转而把目标投向了英国商船。皇家海军，包括海军航空兵，已经完全取得了海上优势。当德国在1941年6月22日发动巴巴罗萨行动时，德国仅存1艘受损的战列巡洋舰、1艘未完工的战列舰、1艘未完工的航母、4艘重型巡洋舰、2艘完整的轻型巡洋舰和20艘驱逐舰了。而这些力量根本无法对英国皇家海军构成威胁。
德国将军和舰队司令并不傻，他们知道战争的最终结果是什么，也清楚：一、他们根本就没有合适的登陆艇；二、发动大规模空降行动需要承担极大的风险——在荷兰发动的作战行动几乎就是一场灾难。
要成功发动一场入侵，你需要夺取对方的桥头堡、空军前进基地并建立起补给线。如果没有补给线，入侵势必要失败的，就像1942年迪耶普行动一样。而且，仅仅夺取并守卫桥头堡也是不够的，你还要准备大量的燃料、润滑油、食物、备件、补给、药品和其他物资。
If Hitler had tried to invade Britain on June 22, 1941, entire Europe would have entered under the domination of the USSR.
This is the most possible outcome for a German invasion of Britain in 1941. Entire Europe ( maybe with the exception of Spain and Portugal ) would have been either annexed into the USSR or transformed in puppet states.
Let’s analyze what will bring to this outcome:
Firstly, we should revive Wehrmacht capabilities to invade Britain in June 1941. I will take this date and not other because then Axis invaded USSR ( Russia was only a Republic inside of the unx and Germans had to invade before Ukraine, a part of Poland, Belarus and the Baltic States before they reached Russia ).
If Hitler had tried to invade Britain Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe would have played the essential role. The Heer ( the Land Forces ) would have never put the foot on the soil of Britain if Germans hadn’t had the supremacy in air and on water.
German Navy didn’t have any chance in front of the Royal Navy. Kriegsmarine had a very clear disadvantage from the start of the War. Despite its losses in WW1, budget cuts and the advance of the American and Japanese navies, Royal Navy was still undoubtedly the most powerful navy in the World at the time. It had over 1,400 vessels, among them: 7 aircraft carries, 66 cruisers, 184 destroyers, 15 battleships and 60 submarines. Kriegsmarine had at the beginning of the War only 4 battleships, 6 heavy cruisers, 6 light cruisers and 21 destroyers. The single sector where Germans were in advantage was submarines. To make things worse, during the Battle of Norway Kriegsmarine had lost one heavy cruiser, 10 destroyers and 3 light cruisers. It was impossible for Germans to produce more ships than Britan during the War.
It’s true, the Royal Navy had to fight all around the World, from the North Sea and Atlantic to the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but had the capacity to protect the islands from any attempt of a German invasion.
Also, the Germans didn’t even have a landing vehicle. They were planning to use river barges ( !!! ) for the invasion.
Now about Aviation. In this aspect, the Germans stayed better. In 1939 Luftwaffe was one of the best airforces in the World. It had some of the most modern aircraft and some of the best-trained pilots ( many of them with experience from the Spanish Civil War). But it had a big problem: the numbers. The single years when German aircraft production was bigger than the British ones were 1939 ( 8,295 vs 7,940 ) and 1943 ( when already it didn’t matter because Americans were in the War ). In 1940 the production of aircraft for Germany and the UK were: 10,862 vs 15,049 and respectively 12,401 vs 20,094. Let’s not forget about two other two important aspects: the Lend-Lease and the oil. In the case of an invasion, the British could have requested more aircraft from the USA and also ask for some oil. Germans had to rely only on its own production and the oil imported from Romania ( I know Germany imported oil from USSR too but I think the oil deliveries from the Soviets will suddenly start to drop, you will see later why ).
It will be a hard battle for the British but the victory will be on their side.
Not least, let’s speak about the land forces. There isn’t any question, in 1941 the Heer was most probably the most powerful land army in the World. There were only two land forces who could have put a resistance: the USA Army ( on the other side of the Atlantic ) and the Red Army ( what it really did ). But there is a problem for Germans: they weren’t capable to use their entire force on the British. They were barely capable of landing infantry troops. There wasn’t any chance to land tanks and artillery in the first wave of the invasion.
On the other hand, we have the British Army. At the start of the War, it wasn’t in the best possible state ( after years of budget cuts ) but it made great progress daily. They were capable to evacuate the biggest part of the Expeditionary Corp after the Battle of France had been lost. This means around 550,000 soldiers ( if you count the French ones). Unfortunately, they had to left behind a great amount of equipment.
Also, in May 1940, it was founded the Home Guard, an armed citizen militia formed of men who were too young or too old for the military service. Its scope was to assist the regular army against a German invasion and organize the resistance in case the islands would have been occupied.
Finally, after the Fall of France, the British started to build up fortifications all across the islands.
In conclusion, any German attempt to invade the UK would have ended in a disaster.
Secondly, let’s analyze the reaction of the USA and the USSR in this scenario.
The USA most probably would have not intervened directly. FDR would have wanted to declare war on Germany but he would not have had a casus belli. He would have had to wait until Pearl Harbor and until then the invasion would have been repelled already. FDR would have to limit only to send a more extended Lend-Lease than in our timeline.
Now about the reaction of the USSR in this scenario. I think the most possible outcome would be the Soviet invasion of Europe.
Stalin had everything to invade Germany. He had:
Motivation: the spreading of the communism
Capacity: in 1941 the Red Army outnumbered the Germans in almost everything.
Occasion: what better time than when your two greatest enemies: the Capitalists and the Fascists are busy killing each other?
If Stalin tries to invade Europe how time Hitler is busy losing the last pieces of Kriegsmarine, a huge number of aircraft and tens of thousands of soldiers in the British Channel I think he would have a very good chance.
British didn’t have the capacity to stop the Soviets. They would have rolled over Germany, through France until they would have reached the Atlantic. I am curious about the reaction of the UK and USA in this scenario.
Susanna Viljanen, works at Aalto University
In 1941 Germany was in no position anymore to attack Britain.
The reason is that a) Luftwaffe had lost the Battle of Britain and the cadre of the most experienced and seasoned aviators and b) Kriegsmarine had been all but obliterated - it was no longer a fighting force.
A successful invasion requires air superiority, naval superiority, dedicated landing craft and secure logistics. And I would call the secure logistics the most crucial aspect for a successful invasion. Germany simply did not have it.
The Battle of Britain had been a catastrophe to Luftwaffe. Vernichtende Niederlage. While the 1,700-odd aircraft lost in action and accidents were replaceable, the 2,500 seasoned, experienced and skilled aircrew were not. And not only that, but the Blitz had been a failure as well. Too many bomber aircraft and their experienced crews had been lost. The Royal Air Force had been bled, but not defeated, and in 1941 it was far stronger than 1940; most of the Battle of Britain aircrew had survived, and the aircraft factories had cranked out aircraft with knobs turned up to 11. The Luftwaffe simply was in no position any longer to gain aerial superiority. The reason is the abysmally bad range of the Bf 109E, and the Bf 110 simply would have been butchered as in 1940.
By 1941 the UK had won the Battle of the Atlantic and obliterated the Kriegsmarine. The Kriegsmarine was no longer a fighting force - it was merely a raiding force. It attempted to avoid the White Ensign as much as possible, and concentrate on the Red Ensign. Royal Navy - including the Fleet Air Arm - would have had complete naval supremacy. When Operation Barbarossa began on 22.6. 1941, Germany had one intact and one damaged battlecruiser, one incomplete battleship, one incomplete carrier, four intact heavy cruisers, two intact light cruisers and twenty destroyers. Not much to challenge the Royal Navy.
The German generals and admirals were not stupid. They knew what the outcome would be. And they also knew that a) they had no suitable landing craft and b) airborne operations on a large scale were extremely risky - the Netherlands operation had been almost a complete catastrophe.
For a successful invasion, you need to seize a bridgehead, you need to seize an airhead and you need to establish supply lines. Without the logistics, the invasion will peter out and fail, like Dieppe 1942. It is not enough to seize a bridgehead and secure it, you also need copious amounts of fuel, lubricants, victuals, spares, supplies, medicines and other provisions.
如果希特勒选择在1941年6月22日进攻英国，最终的结果是：整个欧洲地区都将被苏联掌控。
如果德国在1941年入侵英国，这将是最可能发生的结果。整个欧洲地区（也许西班牙和葡萄牙除外）都会被苏联兼并，或者成为苏联的傀儡国家。
我们来分析下出现这种结果的原因：
首先，我们假设德国国防军在1941年6月有能力入侵英国，我们选择这个日期的原因是，当时轴心国开始入侵苏联（由于俄罗斯只是苏联的一个共和国而已，所以，在抵达俄罗斯领土前，德国人必须先要入侵乌克兰、波兰部分地区、白俄罗斯和波罗的海诸国）。
如果希特勒尝试入侵英国，那么纳粹德国的海军和空军将会成为战争主力。如果德国无法占据空中和海面优势的话，那么德国的陆军根本就没有机会踏上英国的土地。
然而，在英国皇家海军面前，德国海军根本就没有任何获胜的机会。战争开始，德国海军就展示出了自己的劣势：除了在一战中的损失之外，德国还削减了海军的军事预算，不仅如此，美国和日本海军也开始崛起，皇家海军还是当时最为强大的海军。英国皇家海军拥有1400艘作战船只，其中包括：7艘航空母舰、66艘巡洋舰、184艘驱逐舰、15艘战列舰和60艘潜艇。相比之下，战争初期的德国海军仅仅拥有4艘战列舰、6艘重型巡洋舰、6艘轻型巡洋舰和21艘驱逐舰。而德国唯一占据优势的，就是潜艇。更加糟糕的是，在挪威一战中，德国海军损失了1艘重型巡洋舰、10艘驱逐舰和3艘轻型巡洋舰。在战争时期，德国基本上无法制造更多的作战船只了。
当然，英国皇家海军的战场遍布整个世界，从北海到大西洋、太平洋和印度洋，但是，它仍然有能力保卫自己的本土免受德国入侵。
而且，德国人根本就没有登陆艇。他们甚至打算用驳船（！！！）来入侵英国。
现在来谈一谈空军。在这一领域，德国稍微占据优势。1939年，纳粹德国空军跻身世界最强空军行列，它拥有世界上最先进的战斗机和经验最丰富的飞行员（其中许多都在西班牙内战中获得了丰富的作战经验）。但是，纳粹德国空军有一个大问题：仅仅在1939年（8295架对7940架）和1943年（德国飞机数量已无关紧要，因为美国已经参战），德国战机的生产数量超过了英国，而在1940年，德国和英国的飞机制造数量分别为10862比15049和12401比20094。而且，我们不要忘了另外十分重要的两点因素：贷款和石油。一旦国家遭受外敌入侵，英国能够从美国获取更多的作战飞机和石油。反观德国，它的石油只能通过国内生产，或者从罗马尼亚进口（我知道，德国可以从苏联那里获取石油，但是很快，从苏联获取的石油数量会突然猛跌，稍后你就明白原因了。）
在这场战争里对英国将面临一场苦战，但是，胜利的天平仍然会向英国倾斜。
最重要的一环，让我们来讨论下陆军。毫无疑问，1941年的德国陆军是世界上最强大的力量。世界上只有两只力量能够与之抗衡，那就是美国陆军（在大西洋的另外一边）和苏联红军（也在实际中和德军较量）。但是，德国人面临着一个问题：他们无法将自己所有的陆军都投入到对付英国之中。德国人很难派步兵登陆英国，更不要说在首轮进攻中使用坦克和火炮了。
另外一方面，英国也拥有自己的陆军。在战争初期，英国陆军状态并不太好（由于多年的预算削减所导致），但是之后，英国陆军开始取得巨大的提升。在输掉法国战役后，英国军队能够将远征军的大部分军队撤退到本土，这意味着550000名士兵（如果加上法国士兵的话）。不幸的是，他们抛弃了大量的武器装备。
同样，在1940年5月，英国成立了英国地方军，该军由不适宜作战的老人和孩子组成。其目的就是协助正规军抵抗德国的入侵，并在英国本岛被占领的情况下，继续组织抵抗运动。
最后，当整个法国沦陷后，英国开始所有岛屿上建造防御工事。
总结来说，如果德军试图入侵英国，结果将会是灾难性的。
其次，我们来分析下，如果德军入侵英国，美国和苏联分别会有如何回应。
极有可能，美国不会直接出兵干预。美国总统罗斯福希望对德宣战，但苦于找不到开战的借口。所以，他只能等到出现类似珍珠港这样的事件时才能宣战，但此时德国的入侵早已被英国击退了。所以，罗斯福只能向英国提供周期更长的战争贷款。
现在，来讨论下苏联可能的回应。我认为，一旦德国入侵英国，整个欧洲地区都会面临苏联的侵略。
因为，斯大林拥有入侵德国的一切必要条件：
入侵德国的动机：传播意识形态
军队规模：1941年的苏联红军，几乎在所有方面都超越了德军
战机：当你的两个头号敌人：资本家和法西斯分子在互相残杀时，还有比这更好的进攻机会吗？
当希特勒在损失自己仅有的国防军、并把大量的战机和成千上万士兵布置在英国海峡附近时，这就是斯大林入侵欧洲的最佳时机。
英国人根本就没有能力阻挡住当时的苏联红军。所以，一旦德国入侵英国，苏联红军将会越过德国、法国，并直达大西洋。在这种局势下，我很想知道，英国和美国将会有和反应呢？
1941年，德军根本就无力进攻英国了。
原因如下：一、在不列颠之战中，纳粹德国空军输掉了战争，并损失了自己最精锐的军事干部和最有经验的飞行员。二、纳粹德国空军已经被摧毁了，它再也不具备战斗力了。
想要实施入侵的一方，必须要获得空中优势、海上优势、专用的登陆艇和安全的补给线。而我认为，安全的补给线是成功实施入侵的最重要一环。可德国并不具备这一条件。
对于纳粹德国空军而言，大不列颠战役简直就是一场灾难和彻底毁灭。在战斗中损失的1700多架战斗机是可以替代的，然而，德国损失的2500名具有丰富经验的飞行员却根本无法补充。虽然英国也遭遇了挫折，损失了很多的战机和丰富经验的飞行员，而且英国皇家空军一直在流血，但是它并没有被击败。1941年的英国皇家空军实力反而超过了1940年，在大不列颠战役中，大多数飞行员都幸存下来了。而且英国的飞机制造厂开始加大马力制造战斗机。纳粹德国空军再也无法获得空中优势。其原因是，纳粹德国的Bf 109E战斗机航程极短，而Bf 110战斗机在1940年都已被击落。
1941年，英国赢得了大西洋海战，并摧毁了纳粹德国海军。自此，纳粹德国海军再也无法有效作战，只能执行侵袭任务而已；它只能尽量避开英国皇家海军，转而把目标投向了英国商船。皇家海军，包括海军航空兵，已经完全取得了海上优势。当德国在1941年6月22日发动巴巴罗萨行动时，德国仅存1艘受损的战列巡洋舰、1艘未完工的战列舰、1艘未完工的航母、4艘重型巡洋舰、2艘完整的轻型巡洋舰和20艘驱逐舰了。而这些力量根本无法对英国皇家海军构成威胁。
德国将军和舰队司令并不傻，他们知道战争的最终结果是什么，也清楚：一、他们根本就没有合适的登陆艇；二、发动大规模空降行动需要承担极大的风险——在荷兰发动的作战行动几乎就是一场灾难。
要成功发动一场入侵，你需要夺取对方的桥头堡、空军前进基地并建立起补给线。如果没有补给线，入侵势必要失败的，就像1942年迪耶普行动一样。而且，仅仅夺取并守卫桥头堡也是不够的，你还要准备大量的燃料、润滑油、食物、备件、补给、药品和其他物资。
很赞 2
收藏