网帖翻译

Do aliens really exist?

外星人真的存在吗？（一）

Andy Kashen
Daytime Dilettante, Nighttime Renaissance Man
Aliens definitely exist and the first time I ever saw them was as a small boy in a rural area outside Cleveland, Ohio. And I have proof.

外星人是绝对存在的，第一次看到它们的时候，我还是一个孩子。当时，我是在俄亥俄州的克利夫兰看到外星人的，而且我还有证据。

I should probably preface this in context as a Baby Boomer. My first recollection of what “aliens” were came from Saturday morning cartoons. They came from outer space in flying saucers and they were usually bad, ugly, and green, though some, like Superman, were humanoid and good. So I was prone to be afraid of them, but open-minded.

首先自我介绍一下，我是在婴儿潮时期（从1946年至1964年）出生的。而我对“外星人”的第一印象，则是来自周六早上的卡通动画。它们都乘坐飞碟从外太空而来，而且普遍都是那种坏人、丑陋且一身绿色的形象，当然，也有一些外星人心地善良，有着人类的外表，就像超人一样。所以，我对外星人还是有些惧怕的，但我还是持有一种开放的心态。

My dad and I were visiting some guy who was building a new house on small clearing in a heavily wooded area. He wanted my dad’s help with something - I don’t remember what. There were no other houses around and my dad got lost and he was upset because we were late. It was getting darker and the remoteness of the area was a little scary to me.

当年，我和爸爸去拜访了一个朋友，他在位于一片茂密的树林里的一小块空地上盖一所新房子。他想让我爸爸帮忙做点什么——但具体我不记得是什么了。那个地方的周围根本就没有其他房子，后来走着走着，我爸爸就迷路了，于是那个朋友很生气，因为我们迟到了。天越来越黑了，这个凄凉偏远的地方让我感觉有点害怕。

When we finally found the property my Dad was quiet and looked worried. A guy came out of a parked car near the entrance and my dad got out to meet him in the driveway after telling me to stay put. He also left the car running which was never a good sign. It was then, through the dashboard window, that I first saw these three humanoid creatures milling around in the distance. I was stupefied. All of them had yellow turtle-like shells covering the top of their heads and large translucent blisters covering what appeared to be their eyes. The exposed parts of their skin and hair(?) were darker than ours (I’m white) but not as dark as the few black people I’d seen up to that point (none lived in my small town). Their thoracic area gave off a dim fluorescent yellow and orange glow in the twilight.

当我们最终找到那所房子的时候，爸爸一言不发，带着一丝担忧的表情。这时候，一个人从家门口停靠的车里走了出来，我爸爸告诉我不要动，然后下了车去见那个人。但是爸爸一直让我们的开着，这可不是什么好兆头。就在那个时候，通过仪表盘上的窗口，我人生中第一次看到了三个人形的生物在远处转来转去。我当时都惊呆了。它们的头上都顶着一层黄色的龟壳，眼睛周围都是半透明的大水泡。它们暴露在外的皮肤和头发比我们要黑一些（我本人是个白人），但是，和我之间遇到过的黑人相比（我居住的镇子上没有黑人），它们还不是太黑。在朦胧的暮色中，它们的胸部发出微弱的黄色和橙色的光。

My dad and the man were clearly also aware of these humanoids because I saw both men point in their direction in an agitated manner and my father started towards the car several times as if he wanted to leave. So I could tell something was wrong. I rolled down my window to listen but it was hard to hear them over the car engine as they talked in hushed whispers. I also noticed that the humanoids seemed to be communicating with each other too. At first I couldn’t make it out but then they suddenly got much louder as if they were getting mad. However, if what they were speaking was a language, it was certainly unlike anything I’d ever heard before.

很明显，我爸爸和那个男人也注意到了这些类人生物，因为我看到它们激动地指着这些生物的方向，我爸爸好几次都朝汽车走来，好像他想要离开这个地方。我知道出问题了。于是，我摇下车窗去听他们的声音，但是，他们在低声交谈，在汽车引擎的轰鸣声中很难听到他们的声音。我还注意到，这些类人生物似乎也在互相交流。起初，我根本就听不清这些生物的声音，但后来声音突然大了起来，好像它们发疯了似的。如果他们说的是一种语言，肯定和我以前所听到的语言完全不同。

Suddenly my dad stopped whispering and started yelling at the man and told him to go do something to himself I didn’t understand at the time. Then he jolted and ran to the car, swiftly got in, and peeled around back to the road in a cloud of dust. For a minute, the only sounds were from the accelerating car engine and tires spinning on gravel. Then I blurted out in panic, “What’s wrong?! What happened?! What was that?!“ My dad angrily pounded the steering wheel with his fist and exploded, “Damn illegal aliens! No way I’m going to work with the Goddamn illegal aliens!” Then he went silent with a scowl on his face.

突然，我爸爸不再小声说话了，开始对那个人大喊大叫，让他去做一些我当时根本无法理解的事情。然后他摇摇晃晃地跑向汽车，飞快地上了车，绕过一片土路走上了马路。当时，我唯一能够听到的声音来自汽车引擎加速的声音以及轮胎在沙砾上转动的声音。然后我惊恐地说：“怎么了？！发生了什么事？！那是什么？！爸爸生气地用拳头捶打方向盘，怒吼着说：“该死的非法移民！”我才不会和那些该死的非法移民一起工作！说完，他皱着眉头就不吭声了。

It was suddenly obvious to me, all of it. The humanoids were indeed aliens. And these must be bad aliens because my dad didn’t like them and they were illegal. Apparently the government knew the aliens existed and were dangerous. Otherwise why would they pass laws making them illegal? All sorts of realizations and new questions begin entering my mind. How many aliens were there? Were they a secret for some reason? Were they all bad/illegal? Was the man talking with my dad working with the aliens to take over the Earth - or just the greater Cleveland area? If so, how did they communicate? I had always wondered why my parents made me lock my car door whenever we went to the city. Prior to my alien encounter I had assumed it might be because of all the black people I saw there since they were also often the bad guys on TV. Now I knew it must be because of the aliens, who were dark, like the black people. Were blacks working with the aliens too? That’s why the city was dangerous and not just the traffic! For me it was one horrifying epiphany after another.

我突然就明白了，这些类人生物确实是外星人。不过，这些肯定是坏外星人，因为我爸爸不喜欢他们，而且他们是非法的。显然，政府知道外星人的存在，而且知道它们很危险。否则，为什么政府会立法判定外星人是违法存在呢？于是，我的脑中开始涌现各种各样新的认知和问题。那里有多少外星人？它们是因为某种原因而被当做秘密隐藏的吗？它们都是坏的/非法的吗？那个和我爸爸谈话的男人，是为了占领地球或者仅仅大克利夫兰地区才和外星人合作的吗？如果外星人真的存在，他们是如何交流的？我一直想知道，为什么每次去城里，父母总要我锁上车门。在遇到这些外星人之前，也许是我在电视上看到的所有黑人都是坏人形象的缘故，我认为外星人也都是邪恶的。它们的皮肤和黑人一样黑。难道黑人也在和外星人一起工作吗？所以，城市里危险的不仅仅是交通事故而已！这是我发现的另外一个可怕真相。

Then I just started blurting out lots of questions at my father in quick succession.
“Are you gonna call the police? The army? Does the President know? Does Mommy?!!!!”

然后，我就像发射连发炮似的，向我的父亲提出了很多的问题。
“你会报警吗？上报军队吗？总统知道这件事吗？需要告诉妈妈这件事吗？”

My dad just said, “No, and you don’t need to be telling anybody either. We just need to mind our own business.” I was getting mad and ashamed. My dad was a strapping six foot tall athlete who served our country in the Korean War. Now he was a pitiful coward, complicit in a potential alien invasion, too afraid to say anything. However, on sudden reflection I realized my dad could not be a coward. Obviously the man had threatened my father and our family or my father knew they could. He was protecting me and mommy. I wanted to tell him that I wouldn’t mind risking my life to help stop the aliens. I thought mommy would too but I’m sure learning about the aliens would be a terrible shock to her. Ultimately, I knew these were grown up problems and like with everything else argumentative, I’d just be told I was too young to understand. What could one small boy do? So like a coward, it was I who kept my mouth shut.

但是，我爸爸说：“不，任何人都不要告诉。我们只需要管好自己的事就行了。”我很生气，也觉得很羞愧。我的父亲身高六尺，是一名魁梧的运动员，曾在朝鲜战争中为我们的国家效力。可是现在，他成了一个可怜的懦夫，面对那些潜在的外星人入侵，连话都不敢说。然而，我突然意识到我的父亲不可能是一个懦夫。很明显，那个人威胁过我父亲和我们的家人，或者说我父亲知道他们可能会威胁我们。他所做的一切，都是在保护我和妈妈。我想告诉他，我不介意冒着生命危险去帮助他阻止外星人的阴谋。我以为妈妈也会这样做，但我同时也明白，外星人对她来说是一个可怕的打击。最终我明白，和其它所有的争论一样，这些都是成年人才能处理的问题。父亲告诉我，你还小，根本就不懂。也是，一个小男孩能做什么呢？所以，我像个懦夫一样闭上了嘴。

Michelle Rose, former Graduate, Master''s degree RCTE at University of Arizona, Tucson (2016-2019)
That’s a question everyone would like answered and, unfortunately, there’s no good way to find out. Here’s why:

这是一个所有人都很感兴趣的问题，但不幸的是：根本就没有答案。为什么呢？

The Milky Way is huge. Best estimates put it at around 100,000 light years across and it might be even a bit larger. There are, by most estimates, about 100 billion planets in our galaxy. Even if we estimate that only 1% of them are Earth-like planets, that’s still about a billion planets possibly capable of supporting life as we know it. But they are so very far apart.

银河系真的是太大了。根据最准确的估计，它的直径大概是10万光年左右，可能还会更大一些。据估计，银河系中大约有1000亿颗行星。即使其中只有1%是类地行星，可能维持生命的行星仍有大约10亿颗。但它们之间的距离实在是太远了。

Here’s an analogy of the distances involved: if the Sun was about the size of a basketball, placed right on the edge of the eastern coastline of Florida, and the Earth a little smaller than the size of a BB placed about 93 feet away from the basketball-Sun, then our closest stellar neighbor, the Alpha Centauri system, would be somewhere in California. (real distance about 2500 miles) Look carefully at that little BB. Imagine microscopic bacteria crawling all over it. That’s life on Earth, including us, the human species. Now turn toward California and imagine those microscopic organisms trying to reach California, either with spaceships or radio. And everything in between those two points, the BB in Florida and the Centauri system in California, is empty. Imagine trying to call California. Just saying hello would take four years for the message to reach Cal. The answer would take another four years to come back.

我们可以对这个距离进行一个比较：假设我们的太阳有篮球那么大，而我们的地球是一个BB弹，将篮球（太阳）放在佛罗里达州东海岸边，然后将BB弹（地球）放在距离篮球（太阳）93英尺的位置，然后，离我们最近的恒星系——半人马座阿尔法星系，它的位置大概是在加利福尼亚州（实际距离大概是2500公里左右）。仔细盯好了那个小BB弹。想象一下，这个BB弹上到处都是微小的细菌。这就是地球上的生命，包括我们人类。现在把镜头转向加利福尼亚，想象那些微生物试图通过宇宙飞船到达加利福尼亚，或者通过无线电建立联系。在这两点之间的一切——包括佛罗里达的BB弹和加利福尼亚的半人马座星系，都是空荡荡的。想象一下，给加州打电话。仅仅说声“你好”，就需要4年时间才能把信息传到加州那里，而回复又需要4年时间才能传回来。

When astronomers peer out into the sky, looking for new planets, it takes a very specialized form of astronomy to determine if the star even has planets. Never mind the techniques; we’ve found only a handful of Earth-like planets so far and even those are pretty iffy. Yes, it’s possible that another civilization like ours—or even really different—may be trying to do the same thing. But: space is vast. Bigger than we can conceive, even with the analogy I mentioned. We could be looking right at a star with a planet that has life similar to ours and we’d never know unless they happened to be looking at us and signaled us at exactly the same time we happened to be looking at them. What are the odds?

当我们的天文学家仰望天空，试图寻找新行星的时候，他们需要用到一种非常特殊的天文学方式来确定某个恒星是否有行星。撇开技术不说；截至目前，我们人类只发现了少数类地行星，但即便如此，对这些行星的性质也很不确定。没错，有可能另外一个和我们一样的文明——甚至是完全不同的文明——也在试图做着和我们一样的事情。但是，宇宙空间是巨大的，甚至比我上面的类比还要大得多。很有可能，我们正看着一颗有生命的恒星和行星，但是，我们永远不会知道上面有生命，除非它们恰好在看我们，并且在我们恰好在看它们的同时向我们发出信号。这样的几率，究竟有多大呢？

Pretty bad, actually. The Drake equation—see the other answers on this thread—indicates that there should be many civilizations in this galaxy. But, for them to contact us, they’d have to be extremely advanced. If they are, then they wouldn’t necessarily want to talk to us anyway. Do you want to talk to those microscopic bacteria crawling all over that BB? It would be a rather boring conversation, I think.

实际上，这种几率低的可怜。根据“德雷克公式”和这个帖子上其它回复，我们可以知道了，这个星系里存在很多其他文明。但是，其它文明只有达到了高度发达的程度，才能够和我们建立联系。可是，如果这些文明真的非常发达，它们可能就没有必要和我们这样的文明联系了。假设一下，你愿意和BB弹上面的细菌联系吗？如果联系了，那一定会是极其无聊的对话吧。

The chances are pretty good that there are other inhabited planets with fairly advanced civilizations in the Milky Way. Here’s the catch: there is also an equally likely chance that those civilizations are nowhere near as advanced as us. In fact, it’s quite possible that we may be among the first. It’s also quite possible that there may have been many civilizations that have already risen, hit their peak, and then died off, for one reason or another.

在我们这个银河系中，很有可能还有其他人类居住的星球和相当先进的文明。这里有一个问题：有可能，这些文明并不如地球文明先进。很有可能，我们是第一个孕育出的文明。也有可能，许多文明都已经崛起，达到自己的巅峰，然后因为这样或那样的原因灭绝了。

We don’t know. In fact, we may never know. We may be like those possible civilizations that rose, peaked, and fell without ever contacting another living world in the whole of their existence. Depressing, isn’t it? So here is my suggestion to you:

但是，这些我们可能不太清楚了，也许以后也不会有机会知道真相了。我们可能会和那些文明一样，在自己整个文明进程中，独自发展、到达巅峰、衰落，不曾接触另外其它的文明，不是吗？所以，我的建议是：

Go to school. Study science and technology, physics, math, anything that helps increase the possibilities of communication with anyone or anything Out There. Try to break the Rule: most civilizations might never contact another. Do something unique. Think outside the box; in fact, get rid of the box altogether and think in ways that have never been attempted. But stay smart and scientific. Don’t trade reality for fantasy and imagine that every light in the sky is an alien spacecraft visiting us. Instead, figure out a way to build spacecraft of our own to go Out There and find those aliens. It’s worth doing.

我们应该去上学，学习科学、技术、物理、数学，以及任何能够增加我们和外文明沟通可能性的知识。试着去打破“大多数文明可能不会联系其它外文明”的这种规则，搞一些事出来。挑出思维定式，摆脱那些条条框框，并用从未尝试过的方式去思考。但是要保证智慧和科学技术。不要用现实来换取幻想，不要把天空中的每一束光都想象成一艘来访的外星飞船。相反，我们应该想办法建造我们自己的宇宙飞船，去那里寻找那些外星人。这才是真正值得做的事情。

Steve Jones , Multi-thousandaire, cat servant, extreme walking enthusiast
Enormous.
I''m not going to get into all the details, because that would take forever, but when it comes to aliens, scientists have largely relied on two things: Drake’s Equation, and the Fermi Paradox. Drake’s Equation dates back to 1961, when astronomer Frank Drake tried to calculate the number of intelligent civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy by devising a formula that used the number of stars formed, star systems with planets, planets with the conditions for life, and several other variables. The answer: There are likely thousands of hundreds of thousands of civilizations in the Milky Way alone. In more than 50 years since, scientists have continued to tweak Drake’s formula based on new discoveries, and the current estimate says there could be 150,000 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.

这个宇宙存在大量的外星人。关于细节，我就不多说了，因为那要花很长时间，但当谈到外星人时，科学家的依据主要有两点：那就是“德雷克公式”和“费米悖论”。“德雷克公式”可以追溯到1961年，当年，天文学家弗兰克·德雷克试图计算银河系内智慧文明的数量，于是，他设计了一个公式，其中的变量包括形成的恒星数量、有行星的恒星系统、有生命条件的行星以及其他几个变量。答案就是：仅仅银河系就可能有成千上万的文明。50多年来，科学家们一直基于新发现对德雷克的公式进行调整，目前的估计是，我们的银河系可能有15万个智慧文明。

So where is everybody? That’s the subject of the Fermi Paradox: If there really are that many civilizations out there, where are they? Shouldn''t we have seen some sign of them? Why do we hear nothing but silence when we listen for signals? And this is where it gets really interesting, because the possible answers to Enrico Fermi’s paradox can also double as fundamental questions about life: Are we alone? Is intelligence a freak accident? Is it the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself? Did some cataclysm wipe out the others? Are we listening the correct way for signals? Would we even recognize alien chatter if we heard it? Is it dangerous to broadcast our existence to the rest of the galaxy? Are other civilizations afraid to advertise their existence?

那么大家都去哪了？这就是费米悖论的主题：如果宇宙中真的有那么多文明存在，那么它们在哪里呢？难道，我们不应该看到他们的一些迹象吗？为什么当我们倾听那些外来信号时，却只能得到沉默呢？这就是真正有趣的地方了，因为“费米悖论”的答案同时也可以作为关于生命的基本问题：我们人类文明是孤独的吗？智慧是一种意外吗？自我毁灭是智慧生命的本性吗？是大灾难把其他文明都消灭了吗？我们接受并解析信号的方式正确吗？如果我们听到外星人的声音，我们能够辨别出来它们吗？向银河系其他地方广播我们的存在，这是一种危险行为吗？或者说，其他文明害怕向宇宙宣布自己的存在吗？