如果没有一战和二战的大规模红利,美国现在会怎么样?
2023-08-13 地平线123 5534
正文翻译


众所周知,因为一战和二战使欧洲的列强实力大减,美国和苏联才趁势崛起,成为超级大国,如果没有这两场战争的话,美国今天会更好还是会更糟?

评论翻译
George Miller
We would be better off today. The USA was the world’s leading economic power well before World War 1. This was inevitable given the size and resources of the nation and its vibrant entrepreneurial culture, but the arms race in Europe between the other powers accelerated the process: Britain bled itself on sustaining its empire and an arms race with Germany while America built railroads and steel mills.
We temporarily armed for World War 1 but then disarmed again. The feeling was that the 2 oceans bordering us provided sufficient security from the militarists of the world, coupled with a mid-sized Navy.
On the eve of World War 2 we had an army of only 189,000 - smaller than Czechoslovakia’s. However our economy comprised 19.9% of World output - larger than Germany, Japan, Italy and Austria combined

如果没有一战和二战的红利,我们现在会过的更好。一战之前,美国就是领先全球的经济强国。鉴于美国的体量和资源以及他充满活力的企业文化,这一切都是不可避免的。但欧洲列强之间的军备竞赛加速了这一进程:英国为了维持自己的帝国不断的失血与德国进行军备竞赛,而同时期的美国却在修建铁路和炼钢厂。
为了参加第一次世界大战我们曾短暂的扩军备战,但之后又再次解除了武装。当时我们觉得我们被两大洋环绕,有足够的安全感,不管世界上的哪只军队都不能入侵我们,再加上我们自己还有一只中等规模的海军力量。
二战前夕,我们的军队规模只有18.9万,还比不上捷克斯洛伐克。然而,我们的经济产出占全球的19.9%,比德国,日本,意大利和奥地利加起来还要多。

By 1945 we had 8.3 million soldiers in the Army alone, and 4 million more in other armed services. The shock of World War 2 and the new technologies of long range aircraft and aircraft carriers, coupled with the ensuing Cold War with the USSR led to a changes in our society that have deeply damaged our culture and society. We are now militarized, deeply entangled in the affairs of other nations (which George Washington famously warned against) and bleeding our economy just like Britain did (which Dwight Eisenhower warned against).
I would love to see leadership that had the courage to pull back our defense perimeter to Iceland in the East and Guam in the West.
Let South Korea deal with North Korea. The South is not the impoverished nation it was 70 years ago. They’re an economic competitor of the USA.
Let India, Japan, Australia, the Phillipines and South Korea deal with the new imperialist, China. The Himalayas and South China Sea are not our problem.
Let China bleed itself policing the Persian Gulf to secure its oil supply. Not our problem.
Let Western Europe pay for its own defense against an enfeebled Russia. Western Europe has the wealth if not the will. Not our problem.

到1945年,单单陆军我们就有830万,还有400万士兵分布在其他军种之中。二战的冲击以及长途飞机和航母新技术的发展,再加上随后与苏联的冷战导致我们的社会发生了巨大的变化,美国的文化和社会遭到了巨大的破坏。美国如今成了军事化国家,深深卷入到了其他国家的事务之中,(这是当初华盛顿极力反对的),像英国以前一样让自己的经济失血(这是艾森豪威尔曾极力警告反对的)
我觉得最好美国能够将自己的防卫力量回撤,东边以冰岛为界,西边以关岛为界。
让韩国自己去应付朝鲜。韩国70年前是一个穷国,但现在不是,他们现在是美国在经济上的竞争对手。
让印度,日本,澳大利亚,菲律宾和韩国自己去应付中国这个新帝国主义。喜马拉雅和南海不是我们的问题。
让中国自己去流血保护波斯湾确保他的石油供应。这不是我们的问题
让西欧自己花钱建设国防去对抗衰弱的俄罗斯,他们有钱,只是没有这样的意愿。这也不是我们的问题

And let America return to what it was: a country admired rather than feared, celebrating its arts and industry rather than its murderous elite special forces, celebrating “amber waves of grain” rather than “bombs bursting in air”. We have a bloated military and an impoverished underclass. Our life expectancy is declining. Bring the troops home. Retrain them as machinists and electrical engineers. Wouldn’t it be nice to see “Made in America” stamped on things again?

让美国回到他原来的样子:一个受人钦佩而不是让人害怕的国家,赞赏艺术和工业而非残忍的精英特种部队,赞赏琥珀色的谷浪而非在空中爆炸的炸弹。我们的军队过度膨胀,我们的底层人民饱受贫穷之苦。我们的预期寿命正在下降。让军队回家吧,把他们重新教育成机械师和电子工程师。看到产品上重新贴上“美国制造”的标签难道不好吗?

Kevin McKenna
If you are assuming the US gained economically in a monetary sense , you will have to look deeper .
Yes , the US economy and industry increased during the First World War . Yes , some few munitions barons made a vast profit .
The US loaned hundreds of millions of dollars to Allied nations prior to entering the War . Once in the War , the US paid French aircraft companies tens of millions of dollars to outfit the US Air Corps .
After the War , the US spent more tens of millions to feed , house , sustain millions of war refugees through the Hoover plan .
During the Depression , the US refinanced original loans to Allies .
Eventually forgave all outstanding loans .
World War II . The US became the “ Arsenal of Democracy” . Yes , the US expected Great Britain to pay for the munitions . Until they could not afford to pay , then instituted Lend/Lease . A clever way to trade munitions for temporary bases .
Again , after the War the US forgave all debts .
The US benefitted by increasing industrial capacity , and establishing new markets while the European countries were busy killing each other . Do NOT believe the “evil “ USA made a huge profit on the misery of Europeans warring with one another .

如果你认为美国是在财政意义上取得了经济利益的话,那么你应该看的更深一点。
没错,美国经济和工业在一战中获得了提升,但获取巨大利益的只是少数的一些军火巨头。在参战之前美国给同盟国提供了数亿美元的贷款。一次在战争中,美国向法国飞机制造商付了数千万美元,以装备美国的陆军航空兵。
战后,美国要通过胡佛计划花数千万美元为数百万战争难民提供食物和住房。
在大萧条期间,美国要为同盟国提供原始金融贷款,最后所有未尝还的贷款都被美国豁免。
二战期间,美国成为了“民主国家的军火库”。没错,美国希望英国能花钱买军火,直到他们无力承担,才签订了《租借法案》。美国非常聪明的用军火换到了临时的军事基地。
战争结束后,美国又一次免除了所有的债务。在欧洲国家忙于自相残杀的时候,美国正通过提高工业产能,建立新市场让自己获益。不要相信美国在欧洲国家战火纷飞的痛苦基础上获得巨大红利的邪恶谣言。

Brent Cooper
The US did profit from the wars. But it had industrial capabilities greater than any other country. It would have continued to grow economically whether the wars happened or not.
What the two wars did was widen the divide between the US and it’s competition, particularly Britain. The two wars bankrupted Britain, France, Japan and Germany, the main competitors of the US. The gap was never as wide as it was after the wars.
All have recovered economically from the war. But the gap with the US has increased, particularly with China coming into the picture.

美国没有从战争中获利。但美国拥有最强的工业生产能力,不管有没有发生战争,美国的经济都会继续发展。
这两场战争的结果只不过是加大了美国和竞争对手,特别是英国,之间的差距。这两场战争使美国的主要竞争对手英国,法国,德国和日本破产,战争结束后他们与美国的差距是前所未有的。
所有国家的经济都从战争中恢复了过来,但他们与美国的差距已经缩小了,特别是图中的中国。

Will Jessop
It’s hard to see where it really profited from World War 1. Sure it weakened some of their economic rivals but it’s not like they really gained anything directly. World War 2 allowed it to notably expand it’s sphere of influence however on the flip side this brought new financial commitments in terms of defense spending. So given the flaws with the premise of the question it is hard really to give this a direct answer.

很难看到美国从一战中获得了什么好处。可以肯定的是,一战削弱了美国的经济竞争对手,但美国并没有真的从战争中获得什么直接的好处。二战让美国极大的扩大了自己的势力范围,然而另一方面,它也为美国在国防预算带来了新的财政负担。所以鉴于这个问题的前提存在的缺陷,很难给出一个直接的答案。

很赞 1
收藏