科学家称,英国第三波疫情可能正在路上
2021-06-07 jiangye111 10399
正文翻译
Third wave of Covid may be under way in UK, scientists say
-With new infections at level last seen in March, experts have cautioned against lifting restrictions too soon

科学家称,英国第三波疫情可能正在路上
——着新感染病例回到3月份的水平,专家警告不要过早解除限制


(A Covid-19 sign on the high street in Hounslow, west London.)

(伦敦西部豪恩斯洛大街上的抗疫宣传)
新闻:

Scientists have warned ministers that a third wave of coronavirus may have already begun in Britain, casting doubt on plans in England to lift all lockdown restrictions in three weeks’ time.

科学家警告大臣们,英国可能已经开始出现第三疫情,这让人们对英国在三周内取消所有封锁限制的计划产生了质疑。

Experts cautioned that any rise in coronavirus hospital admissions could leave the NHS struggling to cope as it battles to clear the huge backlog in non-Covid cases.

专家警告称,新冠肺炎住院人数的任何上升都可能让英国国家医疗体系难以应对,因为国家医疗体系正在努力清理大量前期积压的非新冠肺炎病人。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Downing Street insisted it was too soon for speculation about whether the plan to lift all lockdown rules in England on 21 June could go ahead, prompting calls from the hospitality industry for the government to ensure it provided “advance notice” for struggling businesses of any “lingering” measures.

唐宁街坚称,现在猜测6月21日取消英国所有封锁规定的计划是否会继续实施还为时过早,这促使酒店业呼吁政府确保要向陷入困境的企业提供任何“拖延”措施的“预先通知”。

The vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, refused to deny that some restrictions such as mask wearing and working from home might remain in place to reduce the spread of the virus. Senior scientific advisers believe that, where possible, working from home makes sense beyond June because it would cut the number of people who come into contact with each other.

疫苗大臣纳迪姆·扎哈维拒绝否认为了减少病毒的传播,可能会继续采取一些限制措施,比如戴口罩和在家工作。高级科学顾问认为,在可能的情况下,6月之后在家工作是有意义的,因为这将减少人与人之间的接触。

Ministers are grappling with whether a rise in cases and further spread of the Covid variant first discovered in India could throw Boris Johnson’s roadmap off track. Despite the progress of the vaccination programme, advisers are unsure to what extent the new infections – which are at levels last seen at the end of March – will translate into hospitalisations and deaths.

大臣们正在努力应对首次在印度发现的新型冠状病毒病例的增加和进一步传播是否会使鲍里斯·约翰逊的抗疫路线图偏离轨道。尽管疫苗接种计划取得了进展,但顾问们不确定新感染(3月底出现的水平)将在多大程度上转化为住院和死亡。

Outbreak modellers advising Sage expected a resurgence of infections even before the new variant, called B.1.617.2, was found in the UK. That is because, as restrictions ease, the virus can spread more easily among millions of people who have not been protected by vaccines. Research by Public Health England that suggests the new variant is highly transmissible and partially resistant to vaccines has heightened concerns that a third wave could overwhelm the NHS.

疾病爆发建模师高速英国政府科学顾问小组,即使在名为B.1.617.2的新变种在英国被发现之前,就预计感染会卷土重来了。这是因为,随着限制的放宽,病毒可以更容易地在数百万没有得到疫苗保护的人群中传播。英国公共卫生部门的研究表明,这种新变种具有高度传染性,而且对疫苗具有部分抗药性,这加剧了人们对第三波疫情可能淹没英国国家医疗服务体系的担忧。

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Zahawi refused to rule out that the planned unlocking could be tweaked, adding that an announcement will be made on 14 June. “We have to look at the data and we will share that with the country,” he said. “It would be completely wrong for me to now speculate. There are many people watching your programme, in jobs and businesses, who want to basically follow the exact direction the government is giving them whilst taking personal responsibility.

扎哈维在BBC的安德鲁·马尔节目中表示,他不排除计划中的解封可能会有所调整的可能性,并补充说将于6月14日正式宣布。他说:“我们必须研究这些数据,我们将与全国分享这些数据。如果我现在去猜测,那将是完全错误的。有很多人在看你的节目,在工作和商业中,他们想要遵循政府给他们的方向,同时承担个人责任。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


“At the moment, we don’t have enough data. There are some parts of the country where there’s literally no B.1.617.2 and everything is pretty stable; in other parts of the country it is beginning to overtake the B.1.1.7 variant – the Kent variant.”

“目前,我们没有足够的数据。这个国家的一些地方没有出现B.1.617.2的新变种,并且一切都很稳定;而在英国的其他地方,它开始超过B.1.1.7型变种——肯特型。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was similarly cautious, telling the Mail on Sunday: “We will know more as we approach the date.” The India variant is thought to be driving a rise in cases in parts of the UK and there are signs of a slight rise in hospitalisations. Up to three-quarters of new Covid cases in the UK are thought to be caused by the variant.

财政大臣里希·苏纳克也同样谨慎,他周日对《每日邮报》表示:“随着(解封)日期的临近,我们将了解更多信息。”印度变种被认为是导致英国部分地区病例增加的原因,有迹象表明住院治疗的人数略有上升。在英国,多达四分之三的新增病例被认为是由这种变异病毒引起的。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he believed the third wave had begun.

伦敦卫生与热带医学学院欧洲公共卫生教授马丁·麦基表示,他认为第三波疫情已经开始了。

“We can already see that the current measures are not stopping cases rising rapidly in many parts of the country. This looks very much as if we are now early in a third wave,” he said. “Unless there is a miracle, opening up further in June is a huge risk. The rise in cases we are seeing now should cause a reassessment of the most recent relaxation.”

“我们已经可以看到,目前的措施并不能阻止该国许多地区的病例迅速上升。这看起来很像是我们正处于第三波浪潮的早期。除非出现奇迹,否则在6月进一步开放是一个巨大的风险。我们现在看到的病例增多,应该让我们重新评估即将开始的放松。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he was concerned the UK was seeing the early signs of a third wave earlier this month, as it became clear the India variant was spreading in the community.

东安格利亚大学医学教授保罗·亨特表示,他担心英国在本月早些时候看到了第三次疫情爆发的早期迹象,因为有迹象表明印度变异病毒正在社区中传播。

Prof Ravi Gupta of the University of Cambridge, a co-opted member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), also raised concerns. “If things go as I think they are going to go, we will likely end up with a third wave. It will be a big wave of infections and there will be deaths and severe illness,” he said.

剑桥大学的拉维·古普塔教授是新出现呼吸道病毒威胁咨询小组的增选成员,他也提出了担忧。“如果事情像我认为的那样发展,我们可能会迎来第三波疫情。这将是一场感染的大潮,将出现死亡和严重疾病,”他说。

“It will put pressure on the NHS at a time when we are trying to get back to normal and it is going to require a redoubling of efforts from the government to step up vaccination and to look at boosting of waning [immune] responses.”

“如果我们努力恢复正常,这将给国家医疗体系带来压力,需要加倍努力来加强疫苗接种,并研究如何提高(免疫)应答。”

Gupta said he was in favour of delaying the planned 21 June relaxation in England until the summer holidays, when the chance of spread within educational settings is reduced.

古普塔说,他赞成把原定于6月21日在英国的封锁放松计划推迟到暑假,那时在教育环境中传播的机会会减少。

A substantial rise in coronavirus patients would hit the NHS just as staff are facing lengthy waiting lists for delayed procedures. Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, said staff were “going full pelt” to deal with the backlog and did not have the space for a significant increase in coronavirus admissions.

新冠肺炎患者的大幅增加将对国家医疗体系造成冲击,而与此同时,国家医疗体系工作人员正面临漫长的等待程序。国家医疗体系服务提供商首席执行官克里斯·霍普森表示,工作人员正在“全力以赴”处理积压的病人,没有空间容纳新冠感染病例的显著增加。

“While it’s great news that the vaccinations are working – and I think that sends us one message in terms of opening up on 21 June – what we mustn’t forget is there are still lots of people who need to be vaccinated, and we know this variant that originated in India is much more transmissible,” Hopson told BBC Breakfast.

“虽然疫苗正在起作用是个好消息——并且我认为这向我们传达了6月21日解封的信息——我们不能忘记的是,仍然有很多人需要接种疫苗,我们知道这种起源于印度的变种更具传染性,”霍普森告诉BBC早间新闻。

Dr William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard, said the UK’s current approach was not enough to prevent a third wave of infections. “The only question is how consequential it will be in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, and when exactly it happens,” he said. “A full reopening in June is not compatible with controlling the virus.”

哈佛大学传染病进化和流行病学教授威廉·哈纳奇博士表示,英国目前的方法不足以防止第三波疫情。他说:“唯一的问题是,它对住院和死亡的影响有多大,以及它到底什么时候发生。6月全面重开与控制疫情是不相容的。”

评论翻译
Difficult_Hornet_100
I am going to sound very ignorant here, but as a large majority people are now vaccinated- including all of the most vulnerable - will a third wave have any real effects?

我可能听起来很无知,但是现在绝大多数人——包括所有最脆弱的人——都接种了疫苗,第三波疫情还会造成什么实际影响吗?

munkijunk
Full efficacy is not seen until around 2 weeks after dose 2, so around 13-14 weeks after dose 1 in the UK.
Further, we are seeing a lot of social mixing in cohorts who have not been, have recently been or who are soon to be vaccinated, and so we can expect that in these age groups we will see a rising incidence because they have an associated low efficacy. Think about otitis media or measles which dont present in adults much but are typically spread from child to child through their interactions. That's something I think we can expect to see in the current landscape.
Finally, no vaccine is 100% effective, so if there is a large pool of active cases in a cohort we can expect that there will be some of the fully vaccinated cohort who'll get sick. So while we have ~70% adherence, the population level of protection is quite a bit lower (adherence*efficacy) and in some cohorts it is pretty much zero.
We are seeing all metrics (case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths) on the rise over the past week, and while they are still low, any increase is worthy of concern. If the past year has taught us anything it should be that any delay in taking actions costs lives and hurts the economy.

在英国,只有在第2次注射后,也就是第1剂注射后的13-14周,才会看到完全的疗效。
此外,我们看到很多没有接种过,最近接种过或即将接种的人群中出现了社会混合接触现象,因此我们可以预计,在这些年龄组中,我们将看到发病率上升,因为他们的有效率较低。想想中耳炎或麻疹这些在成人中不常见但通常通过儿童间的互动传播的疾病吧。我认为这是我们可以期待在当前形势下看到的场景。
最后,没有一种疫苗是100%有效的,因此,如果一个队列中有大量活跃病例,我们可以预期,将会有一些完全接种了疫苗的人群也患病。所以虽然我们有70%的依从性,人群的保护水平相当低(服从性×有效性),在一些队列中几乎为零。
我们看到过去一周所有指标(病例数、住院人数和死亡人数)都在上升,尽管它们仍然很低,但任何增长都值得关注。如果说过去一年教会了我们什么的话,那就是任何拖延采取行动都要付出生命的代价,并损害经济。

millionreddit617
70% adherence is ridiculous.
Those 30% are on their own now as far as I’m concerned. You refuse a vaccine and get sick, that’s on you.

服从性只有70%的是荒谬的。
据我所知,那30%现在只能靠他们自己了。如果你拒绝注射疫苗而生病,那是你自己的错。

zygomaticus_minor
There are still tens of millions of people who have had no vaccine or whose immune response is still maturing - the latter being way more of an issue for the currently circulating Indian variant than the Kent one. Third wave won’t be as deadly but it will still pack hospitals full of cases. A combination of fat younger people and a number of vaccinated older people who prove that no vaccine is 100% effective. Full hospitals is itself a problem when you run out of capacity for heart attacks and strokes and cancer investigations and so on.
Situation is very marginal at the moment. We’ve not quite vaccinated enough people to shrug off a third wave yet but we will get there soon. But the virus is really spreading very fast right now.
Unfortunately for The Plan it’ll probably be pushed back from June 21 to maybe a month or two later. Very annoying but I feel an end is in sight now.

仍有数千万人没有接种疫苗,或者他们的免疫反应仍在形成过程中——后者对目前流行的印度变种的抵抗力,相比岁比肯特变种的更是个问题。第三波疫情不会那么致命,但医院里仍然挤满了病例。一组肥胖的年轻人和一些接种过疫苗的老年人证明没有疫苗是100%有效的。当你无力处理心脏病发作、中风和癌症等非新冠病症时,满员的医院本身就是一个问题。
目前形势非常危急。我们还没有给足够多的人接种疫苗来应对第三波疫情,但我们很快就会到达那里。但现在病毒传播得非常快。
不幸的是,解封计划可能会从6月21日推迟到一两个月之后。很烦人,但我觉得现在已经可以看到终点了。

Charlie_MouseScotland
Vaccinations should help mitigate things to some extent. Emphasis on “should” and ”to some extent”. Whether it’s enough we don’t know for sure yet.
There are some early indications that vaccination may be reducing hospitalisation rates but again we don’t know for sure yet.
I have to admit this pisses me off. Just for once I’d like to see the U.K. take the path of caution and pause opening up until we do know for sure. Much as we’re all tired of restrictions all repeatedly ploughing ahead with blind optimism has bought us is worse outbreaks that need even longer under lockdown/restrictions to bring back under control, more deaths, more economic damage.
And we’re not just talking about once: this is what has happened several times now over the past fifteen months and we apparently never fucking learn. Maybe this time we’ll be lucky. Maybe not.

接种疫苗应该在一定程度上有助于缓解这种情况。强调“应该”和“一定程度上”。这是否足够,我们还不确定。
有一些早期迹象表明,接种疫苗可能会降低住院率,但我们仍然不确定。
我得承认这让我很生气。就这一次,我希望看到英国采取谨慎的态度,在我们确定之前先暂停开放。就像我们都厌倦了限制一样,我们都带着盲目的乐观不断地向前推进,给我们带来的是更糟糕的疫情,需要更长的封锁/限制才能控制住疫情,更多的死亡,以及更多的经济损失。
我们说的不是一次:这种情况在过去的15个月里已经发生过好几次了,我们显然从来没有吸取教训。也许这次我们会走运。也许不会。

munkijunk
Speaking as a health economist who works in vaccine roll outs, and who as worked on Covid, a real danger now is a risk of a vaccine resistant variant arising. Given the UK does not have a vaccine passport system in place, and assuming that there will be a lot of mixing in age stratified cohorts as socialising increases, it's not unreasonable to assume that the people who will be getting the greatest number of infections are going to be the same young people who may well have a vaccination around that time, and so will have a low efficacy. This is only compounded by the UKs 12 weeks between vaccine doses.
Why is that a concern? Because it is far more likely for a vaccine resistant strain to occur in that situation. If that does occur, and the vaccines are proven useless against it, then we may have to see a return to more costly lockdowns (or delay and have even more costly lockdowns). As variants arrise too there is always a chance that one will emerge which is more deadly to a wider cohort.
I'm not hugely concerned of everything being undone, but we're not free and clear yet and it doesn't hurt to remain cautious. We really do not want to give this virus yet another chance now we have it on the ropes here.

作为一名从事疫苗推广和新冠病毒研究的卫生经济学家,我认为现在真正的危险是出现疫苗耐药变异的风险。考虑到英国没有疫苗护照系统,并假设随着社交活动的增加,将会出现大量年龄分层人群的混合,这不是不合理的假设,感染最多的人将是那些可能接种了疫苗的年轻人,因此效果很低。在英国,接种两剂疫苗间隔长达12周。
为什么要担心?因为在这种情况下更有可能出现疫苗耐药毒株。如果这种情况真的发生了,而且疫苗被证明对它无效,那么我们可能不得不看到代价更高的封锁的回归(或者延长封锁,造成更昂贵的封锁)。随着变异的出现,总有可能出现一种对更广泛群体更致命的变异。
我并不十分担心所有的事情都被破坏了,但我们还没有自由和清楚,保持谨慎也没有坏处。我们真的不想再给这种病毒一次机会,现在我们已经把它压制到了就要被消灭的地步了。

WrackspurtsNargles
Whilst it will have less deaths and less of an impact than the other waves, I'm seriously concerned about what this will do to healthcare workers. After we all started getting our vaccines in January there was a notable relief and rise in morale. In the past few weeks when the variants have made an appearance multiple staff members have handed in their notice. I'm so relieved that I'm going on maternity leave in 3 months, because I'm not sure how much longer I can cope with the additional pressure. We've had people go off on long term sick leave for mental health, and every day we're getting pulled to different units to cover absences. It's not sustainable, and I don't know how much longer we can do this.

虽然与前几次相比,第3波疫情造成的死亡和影响更小,但我非常担心这会对医疗工作者造成什么影响。在我们1月份开始接种疫苗后,情况明显好转,士气也有所提升。过去几周,当这些变体出现时,多名员工递交了辞呈。三个月后我就要休产假了,这让我松了一口气,因为我不知道我还能承受多久额外的压力。我们有很多人因为心理健康问题请了很长时间的病假,每天我们都被拉到不同的部门去弥补缺工。这是不可持续的,我不知道我们还能坚持多久。

NomasTheDankEngine
If I owned a business I would be calling a conference of all my cities effected businesses and pushing for a collective ignoring of this shit. As a customer I would support them. Enough is enough. These powers were always going to have to be stripped from them.
Cases are extremely low. Most people have been vaccinated. Most people who get it get it mildly. Allot of people who get it don’t even know it.
If you want to hide away in fear for the rest of your life than feel free to. I’m not.

如果我拥有自己的企业,我会召集所有受影响城市的企业召开会议,推动大家对这些垃圾封锁政策的集体无视。作为消费者,我会支持它们。够了就是够了。这些权力总是要被剥夺的。
病例数极低。大多数人都接种过疫苗。大多数人症状都是温和的。很多感染它的人甚至不知道自己感染了。
如果你想余生都躲在恐惧中,那就请自便。我不想。

armoured
Don't be a dumb weak little bitch; my wife complained less even when her dad died and we were prevented from going to the funeral - she showed more backbone than you're showing now.

别做一个又傻又弱的小婊砸。我的妻子抱怨得更少,甚至在她父亲去世后,我们也被阻止去参加葬礼——她表现得比你现在更有骨气。

NomasTheDankEngine
Hahahaha yeh ok. I’m the fanny. Our liberties are being unnecessarily curtailed and you suck it up like the good little citizen you are and you call me the bitch. Il live my life, you go hide.

哈哈哈是好的。我是婊砸。我们的自由被不必要地被限制了,而你却像个好公民一样忍着还叫我婊砸。我过我的生活,要躲你去躲好了。

armoured
You think every government on the planet has suddenly decided to destroy their economies for no reason? From the UK to North Korea, 195 countries are taking similar precautions. Unless you believe that there's a global conspiracy going that includes every country on the planet, regardless of alliances, then I don't get where you're pulling the word unnecessary from.
We need people to stand up to authority when they step out of line, not idiots standing up to authority when they're actually trying to do the right thing and listen to scientists for once.
Get to fuck you toddler

你认为地球上的每一个政府都突然决定无缘无故地摧毁它们的经济吗?从英国到朝鲜,195个国家正在采取类似的预防措施。除非你相信有一个包括地球上的每一个国家的,不管联盟派系的全球性的大阴谋,否则我不明白你从哪里扯出了这么个不必要的淡。
我们需要的是在公权力越轨的时候站起来反抗权威的人,而不是在他们试图做正确的事情并听科学家的话的时候站起来反抗权威的SB。
Qnmbd的小屁孩

NomasTheDankEngine
Have I upset you?

我踩到你尾巴了吗?

armoured
We need people to stand up to authority when they step out of line, not idiots standing up to authority when they're actually trying to do the right thing and listen to scientists for once.
Man you'd be angry too if you'd lost people and still had to act stoic in the face of it all while cry babies like you go around carelessly and shitting all over the compromises we've had to make. I mean fuck,some of us are trying to use logic and fortitude to get through this, while you're running on feelings like a fucking child. Grow up mate.

“我们需要的是在公权力越轨的时候站起来反抗权威的人,而不是在他们试图做正确的事情并听科学家的话的时候站起来反抗权威的SB”
伙计,如果你失去了亲人,还得在面对这一切时表现得坚忍,而像你这样的巨婴却到处乱跑,对我们不得不做出的妥协满不在乎时,换成你也会生气的。我的意思是,cao,我们中的一些人试图用逻辑和毅力来挺过难关,而你却像个孩子一样依靠感性。长大吧,伙计。

NomasTheDankEngine
Duno, I think there’s an irony in you calling me a cry baby. You cower and hide in a constant state of fear and il just crack on living my life.

杜诺,我觉得你叫我巨婴很讽刺。是你畏缩不前,躲在恐惧中,而我会继续过我的生活该咋样咋样。

anonymouse39993
I can’t see how there will be enough hospitalizations to be a problem.
I certainly would not tolerate another lockdown

我看不出有那么多住院病人怎么就成了问题了。
反正我绝对不能容忍再次封锁了

NorthbankN5
People who say they won’t tolerate another lockdown make me laugh. Where you gonna go when everything is closed?

那些说他们不能忍受再次禁闭的人让我笑了。一切都关闭了,你又能去哪里?

standbehind
Enough is enough, if you are concerned, stay at home, life needs to resume.

我已经受够了,如果你害怕,就呆在家里好了,但生活需要恢复。

HairyMechanicNorthamptonshire
Unfortunately it's not as simple as that.

不幸的是,事情没有那么简单。

millionreddit617
It is.

就这么简单。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


HairyMechanicNorthamptonshire
You're saying if you have concerns then just stay at home and let everyone else continue with normality.
That just won't work for bar staff who may not want to go back to fully normality until they've got two doses of the vaccination. They might be happy with limited table service at the moment because of steps and measures in place.
How are you going to cover the gap where the hospitality sector is already struggling to recruit staff before you then potentially lose others because they're uncomfortable with working conditions?
That's just one example for one industry - extend that over most industries and you've still got the same problem. Even within offices, which are less public facing but will still have a contribution, you're going to have staff who aren't wanting to rush back to the old 'normal' because it doesn't benefit them.

你的意思是,如果你有顾虑,那就呆在家里,让其他不怕的人继续正常生活。
但这对酒吧工作人员不适用,因为他们可能不想在注射两剂疫苗前就恢复到完全正常的状态。他们可能会对目前有限的餐桌服务感到满意,因为现行的相应抗疫措施。
你将如何弥补酒店行业已经在努力招聘员工的缺口,然后你还可能会失去其他员工,因为他们对工作环境不舒服?
这只是一个行业的一个例子——如果把它延伸到大多数行业,你仍然会遇到同样的问题。即使是在虽然不太面向公众,但仍然可以做出贡献的办公室里,你也会遇到一些员工不愿匆忙回到过去的“正常”状态,因为这对他们没有好处。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


millionreddit617
They have to do their own risk/reward analysis and make their own life choices.
There’s a risk of a car crash every time I drive to work.
There’s a risk of being stabbed to death every time I walk to the shops.
There’s a risk of being killed by a stray ball every time I play golf.
There’s a risk of hitting my head on a reef every time I go surfing.
There’s a risk of being mauled by a dog every time I walk past the local travellers site.
But you’ve gotta get on with your life.
The extremely low risk of being severely ill due to covid is now just another one of life’s risks, and it should now be up to the individual to decide.
The government has done enough.

他们必须自己做风险/回报分析,做出自己的人生选择。
我每次开车去上班都有发生车祸的危险。
我每次去商店都有被捅死的危险。
我每次打高尔夫球都有被球砸死的危险。
我每次去冲浪都有头撞到礁石的危险。
每次经过当地旅游景点,我都有被狗咬伤的危险。
但你得继续你的生活。
因新冠病毒而罹患重病的极低风险现在只是另一种生命风险,现在应该由个人来决定怎么做。
政府已经做得够多了。

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