英国科学家警告称,取消防疫规定就好比建造“变种工厂”
2021-07-12 jiangye111 10777
正文翻译
UK scientists caution that lifting of Covid rules is like building ‘variant factories’
-Experts react with dismay to ‘frightening’ attitude of Sajid Javid towards removing protections

英国科学家警告称,取消防疫规定就好比建造“变种工厂”
——专家们对赛义德·贾维德关于取消防护措施的“令人恐惧”的态度感到震惊
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处



(Sajid Javid : ‘We need to be clear that cases are going to rise significantly … No date we choose will ever come without risk.’)

(萨吉德·贾维德:“我们需要明白的是,病例将显著增加……我们选择的任何开放日期都会有风险。”)
新闻:

UK scientists have warned that the lifting of all Covid-19 restrictions is like building new “variant factories” at a very fast rate, and said the attitude of the new health and social care secretary, Sajid Javid, is “frightening”.

英国科学家警告称,取消所有防疫措施就像以非常快的速度建造新的“变种工厂”,并表示新任卫生和社会保障大臣赛义德·贾维德的态度“令人恐惧”。

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Javid said the best way to protect the nation’s health was by lifting the main Covid-19 restrictions. “Rules that we have had to put in place have caused a shocking rise in domestic violence and a terrible impact on so many people’s mental health,” he said.

贾维德在周日的《每日邮报》上写道,保护国民健康的最佳方式是取消主要防疫限制。他说:“我们不得不实施的法规导致了家庭暴力的急剧上升,对很多人的心理健康造成了可怕的影响。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Reacting to the comments, Prof Stephen Reicher at the University of St Andrews, a member of the Sage subcommittee advising on behavioural science, tweeted: “It is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who still thinks Covid is flu. Who is unconcerned at levels of infection. Who doesn’t realise that those who do best for health, also do best for the economy. Who wants to ditch all protections while only half of us are vaccinated.

圣安德鲁斯大学的斯蒂芬·雷谢尔教授是英国政府科学顾问小组行为科学咨询委员会的成员,他在推特上回应这些评论:“一个‘卫生’大臣仍然认为新冠肺炎不过只是流感,这令人恐惧。他不关心感染程度。他不知道那些为健康做得最好的人,也会为经济做得最好。他想在我们只有一半人接种疫苗的情况下就放弃所有保护措施。

“Above all, it is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who wants to make all protections a matter of personal choice when the key message of the pandemic is “this isn’t an ‘I’ thing, it’s a ‘we’ thing.”

“最要命的是,当疫情的关键信息是“这不是‘我’的问题,而是‘我们’的问题”时,却有一个想要把所有保护措施都变成个人选择的‘卫生’大臣,这是令人恐惧的。”

On Monday, the cabinet is expected to sign off the easing of various Covid restrictions in England, including allowing fully vaccinated adults to travel to amber-list countries without having to self-isolate when they return; making the wearing of face masks voluntary, apart from in hospitals and other healthcare settings; and no longer requiring fully vaccinated adults to take a Covid-19 test or self-isolate or if they’ve come into contact with an infected person.

周一,英国内阁预计将批准放松对新冠肺炎的各种限制,包括允许完全接种疫苗的成年人前往黄色级别名单的国家旅行,且回国时无需自我隔离;除在医院和其他医疗机构外,可自愿佩戴口罩;不再要求完全接种过疫苗的成年人进行病毒检测或自我隔离,即使他们接触过感染者,也不再要求。

The school “bubbles” system that has forced hundreds of thousands of pupils to self-isolate at home, if someone in their bubble tests positive, is also expected to be dropped; while pub and restaurant customers may no longer have to scan an NHS QR code upon their arrival.

如果有人在学生们的泡泡检测中呈阳性的话,就迫使成千上万的学生在家里自我隔离的学校的“泡泡”系统,预计也将被取消;而酒吧和餐厅的顾客可能再也不用在到达时扫描国家医疗体系的二维码了。

Javid said: “We need to be clear that cases are going to rise significantly. I know many people will be cautious about the easing of restrictions – that’s completely understandable. But no date we choose will ever come without risk, so we have to take a broad and balanced view.

贾维德说:“我们需要明确的是,病例将显著上升。我知道很多人会对放松限制持谨慎态度——这完全可以理解。但是,我们选择的任何日期都有风险,所以我们必须采取一个广泛和平衡的观点。

“We are going to have to learn to accept the existence of Covid and find ways to cope with it – just as we already do with flu.”

“我们必须学会接受新冠病毒的存在,并找到应对它的方法——就像我们对付流感一样。”

Prof Susan Michie, the director of the Centre for Behaviour Change at University College London, and another member of Sage’s behavioural science subcommittee, tweeted: “Allowing community transmission to surge is like building new ‘variant factories’ at a very fast rate.”

伦敦大学学院行为变化中心主任、英国政府科学顾问小组行为科学小组委员会的另一名成员苏珊·米基教授在推特上写道:“允许社区传播激增,就像以非常快的速度建造新的‘变种工厂’。”

Writing in a blog for the British Medical Journal last week, Michie, together with Reicher and Prof Ann Phoenix at UCL’s Institute of Education, said Javid’s singular emphasis on the responsibility of individuals to identify and mitigate against Covid-19 risks, took the emphasis away from what the government must also do.

上周,米基和赖歇尔以及伦敦大学学院教育学院的安·菲尼克斯教授在为《英国医学杂志》撰写的一篇博客中写道,贾维德强调个人有责任识别和减轻新冠风险,把重点从政府必须做的事情上转移开。

“If people are to act responsibly they need their government to fulfil its own responsibilities to make safe behaviour possible,” they said. “The fear is that when government talks about a “freedom day” when all restrictions are lifted, it doesn’t mean that the virus has gone away, and it doesn’t mean that measures are not needed to prevent a resurgence.

他们说:“如果人们要采取负责任的行动,他们就需要政府履行自己的责任,让安全行为成为可能。令人担忧的是,当政府谈到所有限制被取消的‘自由日’时,并不意味着病毒已经消失,也不意味着不需要采取措施防止病毒再次爆发。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


“What it does mean is that the government is planning to withdraw all forms of support and abandon us to deal with the pandemic on our own.”

“这意味着政府计划撤回所有形式的防疫支持,抛弃了我们,让我们自己去应对这种大流行。”

However, other scientists said the relaxation of many of the restrictions, while not risk-free, made sense. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “Double-vaccinated people are less likely to get an infection and even if infected are less likely to infect others.”

然而,其他科学家表示,尽管放宽许多限制并非没有风险,但也是有道理的。东安格利亚大学的医学教授保罗·亨特说:“接种过两次疫苗的人不太可能感染,即使被感染了也不太可能传染给其他人。”

Similarly, he said the additional risk posed by relaxing mask-wearing was unlikely to be great – although it made sense for vulnerable groups to wear them in crowded indoor environments, and for those visiting very vulnerable individual indoors – at least while community rates remained high.

同样,他说,放松佩戴口罩带来的额外风险不大可能很大——尽管在拥挤的室内环境中戴口罩对弱势群体有意义,对那些在室内拜访弱势群体的人也有意义——至少在社区覆盖率仍然很高的情况下是这样。

“The school bubble system may have had some value, but if we accept that we are all going to get repeated Sars-CoV-2 infections throughout life, and we are unlikely to vaccinate children under 11, and may not vaccinate children from 11 to 16, then all this can be said to be doing is delaying the inevitable. This is causing considerable disruption for relatively little benefit,” Hunter said. “Even relying on daily testing of asymptomatic individuals is open to debate.

亨特说:“学校的泡泡系统可能有一些价值,但如果我们接受我们都会在一生中反复感染新冠,并且我们不太可能给11岁以下的儿童接种疫苗,也不太可能给11岁至16岁的儿童接种疫苗,的话,那么,所有这些措施都可以说只是在拖延不可避免的结果而已。这造成了相当大的破坏,而收益却相对较少。甚至依赖无症状个体的日常检测也存在争议。

“Of course, we have seen new issues appear during the course of this epidemic and so no one can be certain of the challenges over coming months, but we will eventually come into an equilibrium with this virus as we have with all the other endemic respiratory infections.”

“当然,我们看到在疫情期间出现了新的问题,所以没有人能确定未来几个月将面临哪些挑战,但我们最终将与这种病毒达成平衡,就像我们与所有其他地方性呼吸道感染达成了平衡一样。”

Prof Allyson Pollock, clinical professor of public health at Newcastle University, said Javid’s approach was “sensible”. She said: “Population immunity is rapidly being achieved due to a combination of naturally acquired immunity through infection and vaccination. Unknowns are duration of immunity, impact of variants and who is at individual risk of reinfection or transmission.

纽卡斯尔大学公共卫生临床教授阿廖森·波洛克表示,贾维德的做法是“明智的”。她说:“由于通过感染和接种疫苗产生的自然获得性免疫的结合,人群免疫力正在迅速获得。未知因素包括免疫持续时间、变种的影响以及谁有再次感染或传播的个人风险。

“Good infection and outbreak control measures are still important at local level. However, mass testing and daily testing should be stopped, as testing of asymptomatic people is causing unnecessary harms with no evidence that it contributes to reducing transmission.”

“良好的感染和疫情控制措施在地方层面仍然很重要。但是,应该停止大规模检测和日常检测,因为对无症状人群的检测正在造成不必要的危害,没有证据表明这么做能有助于减少传播。”

评论翻译
wontom_soup
Okay, but what are we supposed to do from here on out? Run back into our rabbit holes every time there is a variant?
COVID is here to stay. We need to find ways to get on with our lives without locking down.

好吧,但从现在开始我们该怎么办呢?一有变种就跑回我们的兔子洞躲起来吗?新冠肺炎将继续存在。我们得想办法在不被束缚的情况下继续我们的生活。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


rockhardcowpoke
I don’t know what they’re thinking. Just stay locked down for the rest of humanities future? At some point we have to say that the measures in place are such that normal function can continue and covid isn’t going anywhere.

我不知道他们在想什么。为了其他的人的未来保持封锁状态吗?从某种程度上说,我们不得不说,目前采取的措施已经足以让正常功能继续了,并且新冠肺炎也不会严重到哪去了。

chinchillah_killah
No, we can do what they did in Australia and China. Short hard localized lockdowns to snuff out outbreaks before they go anywhere. And everyone else gets to keep going about their normal lives if they don't live in that specific area.
They've spent hardly any time under lockdown compared to us and have way, way lower death rates. At some point you have to be like, hmm maybe we should try that.
Yeah, that's called #covidzero. Australia, NZ, China have all spent hardly any time under lockdown compared to us, because they did it properly - short hard localized lockdowns to prevent outbreaks from spreading around the entire country.
We couldn't even do hotel quarantine right. This is purely a fuckup of our governments and public health.

不,我们可以效仿澳大利亚和中国的做法。短期严格的局部封锁,在病毒扩散之前将其消灭。而每个人都可以继续他们的正常生活,如果他们不住在那个特定的区域的话。
与我们相比,他们几乎没有被封锁过,而且死亡率也低得多。有时候你会想,好吧,也许我们也应该试一试。
是的,这就叫零病例战略。与我们相比,澳大利亚、新西兰和中国几乎没有花任何时间进行封锁,因为他们做得很好——短期、强硬的局部封锁,防止疫情在整个国家蔓延。
而我们连酒店隔离都做不好。这纯粹距是政府和公众健康搞砸的烂摊子。

amazoncon
One way to counter this notion is to ask how we would be expected to act if this were Ebola instead of COVID. Of course that seems crazy - Ebola is massively contagious and virtually 100% fatal. We wouldn't just declare ourselves tired of trying to avoid it, because if we didn't contain the spread it would seemingly kill us all.
Start working backward from there, each disease being somewhat less likely to kill, until you find the threshold that you'd tolerate.
Smallpox only kills 30% of those it infects, so what if that arose again out of some bio-weapons lab? Would we just shrug and tell ourselves to live with smallpox without taking a public stance to contain it? By comparison, anthrax only kills 10% of those who get it - is that something we could just live with rather than combat? Would it be OK to let Anthrax infected people pass the disease around, so we could re-open restaurants and bars and sporting events?
Go down the list of diseases in order of most to least infectious and deadly, until you hit the number of dead people per year that you're willing to accept. How many Americans can die every year, from here to eternity, in order to restore whatever it is that you miss the most about pre-COVID living.
The math, equating human lives to dollars or days at the beach or whatever, is really hard-nosed. Insurance companies take shit for doing that every single day, but that's the proposal behind re-opening everything and just tossing masks out the window. How many dead are acceptable?

应对这种想法的一种方法是问,如果这是埃博拉病毒,而不是新冠,我们将如何采取行动。当然这听起来很疯狂——埃博拉病毒具有大规模传染性,而且几乎100%致命。我们不会仅仅宣布自己已经厌倦了就试图避免它,因为如果我们不控制传播,它似乎就会杀死我们所有人。
从那里开始,每一种疾病致死的可能性都比较小,直到你找到你能忍受的阈值。
天花只会杀死30%被感染的人,所以如果这种病毒在生物武器实验室再次出现该怎么办?我们会只是耸耸肩,然后告诉自己学会与天花共存,而不采取公开立场来控制它吗?相比之下,炭疽热只杀死了10%的感染者——这是一种我们可以忍受而不是与之战斗的疾病吗?让炭疽病毒感染者四处传播疾病,这样我们就可以重新开放餐馆、酒吧和体育赛事,这样行吗?
按照传染性和致命程度从高到低的顺序依次往下看,直到达到你愿意接受的每年死亡人数。从现在到永远,每年有多少美国人会为了恢复你最怀念的新冠肺炎前的生活而死去。
把人的生命等同于金钱或在海滩上的日子或其他东西的数学计算是非常势利的。保险公司每天都因为这样做而受到指责,但这就是重新打开一切,把口罩扔出窗外的背后的建议——死多少人是可以接受的?

rickk79
As long as we have the mindset of yours, we will be forced to live with ever stronger and possibly deadlier strains of this virus.

只要我们有你们这样的心态,我们就会被迫与这种病毒的更强大、可能更致命的变种共存。

wontom_soup
I’m not saying we shouldn’t have measures in place to prevent the spread. I’m saying those measures should be focused on vaccination and testing, not keeping people inside their houses.
What are we heading towards? No indoor dining during winter COVID season? No more live music? House parties are a thing of the past? None of that is realistic.

我并不是说我们不应该采取措施来防止传播。我的意思是,这些措施应该集中在疫苗接种和检测上,而不是让人们呆在家里。
我们在走向什么?冬季疫情季不能室内用餐?没有现场音乐?家庭聚会成为了过往记忆?这些都不现实。

FatihaBx 1
I completely agree but I’ve been thinking, since now there are far too many people I know that have had corona including me, do you think everything has to go to shit before it gets better again?
The Euros have made Glasgow and London Covid hotspots, Tokyo hosting the olympics in a few weeks (with no fans but it’s still a risk), summer festivals still said to continue August - September, schools reopening August - September again. Everyone booking their holidays whilst the UK of course are planning to ease restrictions.
It’s going to be a breeding factory for this virus in the upcoming months I can’t tell if it’s going to be chaos or if it’s going to be exactly what we need to overcome it.

我完全赞同,但我一直在想,因为现在我认识的很多人包括我在内都感染了新冠,你认为一切都要先搞砸,然后才会好转吗?
欧洲杯已经把格拉斯哥和伦敦变成了疫情热点地区,东京将在几周后举办奥运会(虽然没有球迷,但仍有风险),夏季节日据说仍将在8月至9月继续,学校将在8月至9月再次开学。每个人都在预订自己的假期,而英国当然正在计划放松限制。
在接下来的几个月里,它将成为这种病毒的繁殖工厂,我不知道局势将会是混乱的还是我们需要克服它。

Neirchill
Literally the entire point of lockdown is to keep people away from other people and reduce the spread until the vaccine is at herd immunity. We might not even be able to achieve herd immunity now because of people refusing to be inconvenienced for a bit longer. We were so close to being on track then we collectively tripped right before the finish line and apparently decided to just lay there.
It makes all the "suffering" you went through already essentially pointless in the long run.

从技术上讲,封锁的全部目的是让人们远离其他人,减少传播,直到通过疫苗达到群体免疫。我们现在甚至可能无法实现群体免疫,因为人们拒绝忍受在一段时间内感到不便。我们距离重回正轨如此之近,但就在终点线之前我们集体摔倒了,并且显然决定躺平在那里。
从长远来看,这会让你经历的所有“痛苦”都变得毫无意义。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


neverless43
And what do you suggest? Running back into our rabbit holes every time there’s a variant and keeping everything locked down forever?

那你有什么建议?每次一有变种就跑回我们的兔子洞永远封锁一切吗?

Hyndis
The chance to eradicate COVID19 was in October 2019, at the latest. That ship has long since sailed.
Its endemic and its here to stay, forever. It'll be just like the Spanish flu where it never really ended. The Spanish Flu is still around even today. I caught a case of it about 10 years ago with the swine flu. It sucked, but I survived.
Fully eradicating covid is impossible. Unless you have a time machine in your back pocket there is no scenario where the disease is gone. We have to learn to live with it.

根除新冠病毒的机会最迟在2019年10月。船已启航很久了。
它已经变成了一种地方性的疾病,它将永远留在这里。就像西班牙流感一样,永远不会结束。西班牙流感直到今天仍然存在。大约10年前我得了猪流感。糟透了,但我活下来了。
完全根除新冠病毒是不可能的。除非你的口袋里有一台时光机,否则这种疾病就不可能消失。我们必须学会与它共存。

creep_with_mustache
They are right ofc but wtf are we supposed to do? You can't keep everything closed forever, but you can't open everything either. We can't really eradicate it so whatever is the way out of this?

这些专家说的当然是对的,但我们tmd该怎么做?你不能永远关着所有东西,但你也不能把所有东西都打开。我们也无法真正根除它,那么该怎么解决呢?
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Clueless_Otter
It doesn't seem too hard to imagine a middle-ground between "keep everything closed forever" and "pretend COVID doesn't exist anymore." You can open things back up, but continue to recommend masks, encourage companies to allow increased WFH if possible, etc.

在“永远封闭一切”和“假装新冠病毒不复存在”之间寻找一个中间地带似乎并不难。你可以重新开放,但是继续推荐口罩,如果可能的话鼓励公司允许增加在家办公,等等。

munkijunk
Why do people seem to think that if every measure isn't dropped now and completely that we'll be stuck with them forever? The scientists who are concerned about this (and as a scientist myself I feel it's a more than valid concern) are just saying that perhaps persisting with dropping every measure now when all metrics on the UK, cases, hospitalisations and deaths are on the rise is only going to hurry up a return to an overwhelmed NHS and a return to another costly lockdown. Exponential growth in hospitalisations as the UK has now will result in that worse case scenario. The vaccines have bought time, but that's all. If a varient does arise that is capable of vaccine escape that time will be drastically cut.
The UK government has unfortunate form in rushing at every step and then paying for it after, and this smacks of yet another page in their ledger of incompetence in dealing with this global crisis. Their impatience through all of this when all the evidence was screaming of looming disaster will be looked back on with utter bamboozlment for how wishful thinking was unable to overcome harsh reality.

为什么人们似乎认为,如果现在不完全放弃每一项措施,我们就会永远被它们困住?关注这一点的科学家(作为一名科学家,我觉得这是一个更合理的担忧)只是在说,在英国的所有指标、病例、住院和死亡人数都在上升的情况下,坚持放弃每一项防疫措施,只会加速国家医疗体系不堪重负的局面,并再次陷入代价高昂的封锁。英国现在的住院人数呈指数级增长,这将导致更糟糕的情况。疫苗赢得了时间,但仅此而已。如果出现了一种能够逃避疫苗的变种,那么时间窗口将大大缩短。
不幸的是,英国政府每走一步都匆匆忙忙,然后又为此付出代价,这让人觉得,他们在应对这场全球危机方面的无能又多了一页。当所有的证据都在尖叫着灾难即将来临的时候,他们对这一切的不耐烦将被彻底的愚弄,因为一厢情愿的想法是无法克服残酷的现实的。

Ov3r9O0O
And what would they have us do? Stay locked in our homes forever until there are zero cases worldwide? Part of having freedom is being able to take risks. Totalitarianism in the name of “your own good” is still totalitarianism.

这些专家要我们怎么做?永远被锁在家里直到全世界没有病例吗?拥有自由的一部分就是能够承担风险。以“为了你们好”为名的极权主义仍然是极权主义。

LL112
Honestly fuck this government. At each stage they've been two steps behind scrabbling for ways to personally profit from covid. Its a national disgrace, yet fools will defend this in the name of freedom. Conservatism is cancer for society, a deep rot that makes everyone collectively worse off.

真是qnmd政府。在每一个阶段,他们都落后两步,并且想方设法从新冠疫情中获取个人利益。这是国家的耻辱,但愚蠢的人会以自由的名义捍卫它。保守主义是社会的毒瘤,它是一种使每个人的境况都整体恶化的深度腐败。

mileswilliams
Err no... don't we have national protests about getting out of lockdown? Every time the police try to stop a gathering they are told they are too heavy handed (for grabbing a woman that was refusing to wear a mask at an illegal gathering in London for instance). We have a government that is too soft in my opinion, every protest we have had has put back our efforts to stop this but for some reason it is necessary for us to protest say a black man in the US that died from a bad cop(s). Or a woman that was murdered, it was essential that we all gathered in London to wave a candle, even though nobody at the event knew her 3 days earlier. It is also essential that everyone then protested at being told they couldn't have a vigil during a global pandemic...
If you think the government is trying to make money by unlocking you are right, they don't want the economy to be fucked forever, if you were in government and didn't take the economy into account you'd be shit at your job. On the other hand they have to pander to the snowflakes that can't seem to understand what is going on or what is needed to stop it.

呃,不是这样的……我们不是在全国范围内抗议并逃出封锁吗?每当警察试图阻止一个集会时,他们总是被告知他们的手段太过强硬(比如在伦敦的非法集会上,他们抓了一个拒绝戴口罩的妇女)。在我看来,我们的政府太软弱了,我们的每一次抗议都阻碍了我们阻止这一切的努力,但出于某种原因,我们有必要抗议,比如美国的一名黑人死于一个坏警察。或者是一个被谋杀的女人,我们必须聚集在伦敦挥动一支蜡烛,尽管三天前在场的人还都不认识她。同样重要的是,每个人都抗议被告知在全球大流行期间不能搞守夜活动。
如果你认为政府试图通过解封来赚钱,你是对的,他们不想让经济永远被搞砸,如果你在政府里,不考虑经济,你的工作就会一团糟。另一方面,他们不得不迎合那些似乎不知道发生了什么或需要什么来阻止它的玻璃心们。

rikki1q
The Tories are bored of managing it now and are using the words personal responsibility to push the issue onto the public.
When the inevitable next wave happens and the hospitals are snowed under they will blame the public by using the words personal responsibility.
What a corrupt inept shit show of a government we have

现在,保守党已经厌倦了处理这一问题,他们开始用“个人责任”这个词来把这个问题推向公众。
当不可避免的下一波疫情发生时,医院会被淹没,他们会用“个人责任”这个词来指责公众。
我们的政府多么腐败无能啊
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


carolinemathildes
I'll admit I'm selfish and say I hope that I can visit without quarantining in 2022 because I have a trip planned for then. Until then, I hope they get it sorted.

我承认我很自私,我希望我能在2022年不被隔离,因为那时我有一个旅行计划。在那之前,我希望他们能解决问题。

ThaVerySadTruth
The Global community needs to look at places such as India, sub-Saharan Africa, and south east Asia and assist them with establishing proper hygiene in the slums. Those are the real variant factories

国际社会需要关注印度、撒哈拉以南非洲和东南亚等地,并帮助它们在贫民窟建立适当的卫生条件。那些地方才是真正的变种工厂

收藏译文