国外研究显示,英国和爱尔兰是最有可能在全球文明崩溃中幸存下来的五个国家之二
2021-08-02 jiangye111 15645
正文翻译
UK and Ireland among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, study suggests
-Researchers say a worldwide breakdown could happen "within a few decades" and have identified five countries most likely to withstand future threats.

研究显示,英国和爱尔兰是最有可能在全球文明崩溃中幸存下来的五个国家之二
——研究人员称,一场全球性的崩溃可能在“几十年内”发生,并确定了五个最有可能抵御未来威胁的国家。


(The UK and Ireland were among five countries identified by researchers as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders)

(研究人员认为,英国和爱尔兰是五个在本国境内维持文明的最佳国家之二)
新闻:

The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

研究人员称,英国和爱尔兰是最有可能在全球文明崩溃中幸存下来的五个国家之二。

A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

一项研究表明,生态破坏、有限的资源和人口增长可能会在“几十年内”引发全球范围内的崩溃,而气候变化会使情况变得更糟。

A "very likely" collapse would be characterised by the disintegration of supply chains, international agreements and global financial structures, according to researchers at the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University.

安格利亚鲁斯金大学全球可持续发展研究所的研究人员表示,“很有可能的”崩溃的特征是供应链、国际协议和全球金融结构的瓦解。

They said problems could spread quickly because of how connected and economically dependant countries are on one another.

他们表示,由于国家之间的联系和经济依赖,问题可能会迅速蔓延。
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Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.

有五个国家被认为最适合在本国境内保持文明,新西兰名列榜首,冰岛、英国、爱尔兰和澳大利亚紧随其后。
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All of them are islands or island continents which have fewer extremes in temperatures and varied amounts of rainfall due to their proximity to oceans.

它们都是岛屿或岛屿型大陆,由于靠近海洋,极端温度较少,降雨量变化也不大。

Researchers said this makes them most likely to have relatively stable conditions in the future, despite the effects of climate change - which is expected to hit subtropics and tropics the hardest.

研究人员说,这使它们最有可能在未来拥有相对稳定的条件,尽管有气候变化的影响——预计亚热带和热带地区受到的冲击将最大。

New Zealand's ability to produce geothermal and hydroelectric energy, its abundant agricultural land and its low population would allow it to survive relatively unscathed.

新西兰生产地热和水力发电的能力、丰富的农业用地和低人口数量将使其相对无损地生存下来。

Although the UK has generally fertile soils and varied agricultural output, it does not have as much agricultural land available because of its population density, raising questions about future self-sufficiency.

尽管英国土壤肥沃,农业产量多样,但由于人口密度大,农业用地并不多,这就给未来的自给自足带来了问题。

Britain's reliance on fossil fuels and nuclear energy was considered to be a risk as power sources could be "rendered at least partly inoperable" if global supply chains collapse.

英国对化石燃料和核能的依赖被认为是一种风险,因为如果全球供应链崩溃,能源可能“至少部分无法使用”。

Researchers said this could be mitigated by the nation's manufacturing capabilities.

但研究人员表示,这个问题可能会被该国的制造能力所缓解。

Meeting the large population's energy demands through renewables alone would require very extensive infrastructure, they said, but the UK could increase its resilience by harnessing more energy from wind and water bodies like lagoons or barrages in the Severn Estuary.

他们说,仅通过可再生能源来满足大量人口的能源需求将需要非常广泛的基础设施,但英国可以通过从风和水体(比如塞汶河口的泻湖或堤坝)利用更多的能源来提高其韧性。

Professor Aled Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said "significant changes are possible in the coming years and decades".

安格利亚鲁斯金大学全球可持续发展研究所所长阿勒德·琼斯教授表示:“在未来几年乃至几十年,重大变化都有可能发生。”

He said: "The impact of climate change, including increased frequency and intensity of drought and flooding, extreme temperatures, and greater population movement, could dictate the severity of these changes."

他说:“气候变化的影响,包括干旱和洪水的频率和强度的增加,极端气温,以及更大的人口流动,可能决定这些变化的严重性。”

Researchers identified pandemics as another risk to societal stability, citing the United Nations' warning that future pandemics could be even more severe than COVID-19.

研究人员指出,大流行是社会稳定的另一个风险,并援引联合国的警告称,未来的大流行可能比新冠疫情更加严重。

Twenty countries were analysed in the report.

该报告共分析了20个国家。

评论翻译
wet-sun
Speaking from the UK, I have a terrible, sinking feeling that Brexit was my country pulling up the ladder on the rest of Europe.

在英国这里,我有一种可怕的、不安的感觉,认为英国脱欧是我的国家在拆欧洲其他国家的台。

tossacoin2yourwitch
I’ve been thinking that…
Governments must know that they need to plan for this shit. They won’t tell us as it will lead to anarchy.
Fucking Britain, we’re the worst
Colonises world, takes resources, becomes superpower Starts industrial Revolution, setting of climate change Spends a few decades playing nicely with the other countries, gives back colonies, joins with Europe Leaves Europe, watches the world burn

我一直在想……
政府必须知道他们需要为这些破事做计划。他们不会告诉我们的,因为这会导致无政府状态。
该死的英国,我们是最差劲的
殖民世界,攫取资源,成为超级大国开始工业革命,设定气候变化,花小几十年与其他国家友好相处,归还殖民地,加入欧洲又离开欧洲,看着世界陷入水深火热

MyCuntSmellsLikeHam
They literally can’t produce enough food to feed everyone. They’re going to have to cull the population of that was the plan

他们根本无法生产足够的食物来养活所有人。他们将不得不按照计划进行种群筛选

Anthro
The UK can easily feed it's own population. The types of food grown depends on market price, not calorie efficiency. During WW2 British agriculture basically became a planned economy, and the people's diets actually improved, at the cost of variety.

英国能很容易地养活自己的人口。种植的食物类型取决于市场价格,而不是卡路里效率。二战期间,英国的农业基本上变成了计划经济模式,人们的饮食实际上得到了改善,但以牺牲多样性为代价。

jim_jiminy
In the 80’s, before Thatcherite privatisation we were 80% self sufficient. Now we are under 50%. With the ramifications of brexit, it will be even less, seeing we can’t get labour to pick the crops and they are left to rot. If we want to achieve food security at high levels, we really need to pull our socks up. Though, this isn’t even on the horizon, the politicians in charge can’t see beyond their immediate self interests.

在80年代,在撒切尔主义私有化之前,我们80%的人口能自给自足。今天我们的比例不到50%。随着英国脱欧的影响,粮食安全将变得更严峻,因为我们无法获得采摘农作物的劳动力,而任由它们腐烂在地里。如果我们想要实现高水平的粮食安全,我们真的需要提高警惕。虽然,这个问题甚至还没有出现在地平线上,但掌权的政客们无法超越他们眼前的自身利益。

Sertalin
Is the UK able to feed its population on its own? Without importing food? I can't believe it

英国能靠自己养活自己的人口吗?在没有进口食品的情况下?我简直不敢相信

tossacoin2yourwitch
It would be a struggle, but I think it’s possible. Lots of our land is golf courses, National parks, Dutchy land (belongs to the royals) etc. Much of that could become farm land. Island nations have a resource in fish many nations don’t have Lots of mountains and sea for wind power Rivers and lakes in Scotland and Wales for water We’d have to ration, stop industrial meat and dairy production (much of our farm land is for animal feed) Convert all personal gardens to allotments and for keeping chickens and other small animals Lots of us are obese too, we’ve got a few years worth of fat supply

这相当困难,但我认为这是有可能的。我们有很多土地都是高尔夫球场,国家公园,“荷兰土地”(属于王室)等等。其中大部分都可以被改成农田。岛屿国家有许多国家所没有的丰富的鱼类资源,有足够的山脉和海洋来发电,在苏格兰和威尔士的河流和湖泊取水,我们必须限量供应,停止肉类和奶制品的工业生产(我们的大部分农田被用来发展畜牧业了),把所有的私人花园变成菜园,用来养鸡和其他小动物。我们很多人也很肥胖,我们有够撑(e)好几年的脂肪储备

Crixalion
By the time climate collapses, overfishing will have destroyed most of oceanic life on earth. Netflix's seaspiracy (if I remember the name right) covered the impending destruction of the oceans quite extensively and posited that most fish populations will be gone before 2050. Not to mention that the eventual collapse of the Gulf Stream would also turn Britain's sunny upplands into snowy Siberia pretty quick. As such, I remain highly sceptical of Britain surviving this.

到气候崩溃的时候,过度捕捞将摧毁地球上的大部分海洋生物。网飞的纪录片《海洋盗窃》(如果我没记错片名的话)对海洋即将遭受的破坏进行了相当广泛的研究,并假设大多数鱼类将在2050年之前灭绝。更不用说墨西哥湾流的最终崩溃也会很快把英国阳光明媚的高地变成白雪皑皑的西伯利亚。因此,我仍然高度怀疑英国能否挺过这一难关。

tossacoin2yourwitch
Firstly, I enjoyed seaspiracy and haven’t eaten fish for 5 years for these reasons…but it didn’t hold up too well against fact checkers. Secondly, no one knows what kind of chaos is going to go off with the Gulf Stream if it were to collapse, so yes this is a possibility but not a certainly.

首先,我很喜欢《海洋盗窃》,因为这些原因,我已经5年没吃鱼了……但它在事实核查员面前站不住脚。第二,没有人知道如果墨西哥湾流崩溃到底会带来什么样的混乱,所以是的,这只是一种可能性,但不是肯定的。

esprit-de-lescalier
The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.
A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within few decades", with climate change making things worse.
A "very likely" collapse would be characterised by the disintegration of supply chains, international agreements and global financial structures, according to researchers at the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University.
The five are New Zealand, Iceland, United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia
Interesting that these are all islands

“研究人员称,英国和爱尔兰是最有可能在全球文明崩溃中幸存下来的五个国家之二。
一项研究表明,生态破坏、有限的资源和人口增长可能会在“几十年内”引发全球范围内的崩溃,而气候变化会使情况变得更糟。
安格利亚鲁斯金大学全球可持续发展研究所的研究人员表示,“很有可能的”崩溃的特征是供应链、国际协议和全球金融结构的瓦解。”
这五个国家是新西兰、冰岛、英国、爱尔兰和澳大利亚 有趣的是,这些都是岛屿国家

In_der_Tat
Interesting that these are all islands
And almost all of them are English-speaking; it sounds like a bias. Also, I know for a fact that the UK is not self-sufficient in food.

“有趣的是,这些都是岛屿国家”
而且它们几乎都是说英语的国家;这听起来像是一种偏见。此外,我知道英国在粮食上无法自给自足。

ragnarspoonbrok
Has a lot to do with farms being paid to let them grow wild flowers and act as flood plains, and the sheer amount grown for animal feed. Hell we give more land to golf courses than we do to fruit and veg growth.

与租用农场长野花和充当洪水平原有很大关系,而且种植作物的数量纯粹是为了动物饲料。见鬼,我们给高尔夫球场分配的土地比给水果和蔬菜分配的土地还多。

Gillett1998
Are you talking about England? Currently over 60% of our land is used for agricultural produce, we are extremely agricultural based, also the wild flower comment, I don't even know where to begin, yeah grants are now being released to encourage biodiversity, soil health and planting trees, largely because previously the land has been overgrazed and fertilizers have been massively over used. But so far that hasn't begun properly, the farm payment grant (money for farming anything) runs out next year. We are not self sustainable at all, not due to a lack of farming, purely due to a ridiculous population for a small island

你是在说英国吗?目前我们超过60%的土地用于农业生产,我们非常以农业为基础,还有你关于长野花评论,我甚至不知道这是从哪来的,是的,现在拨款正在发放,以鼓励生物多样性,土壤健康和种植树木,但很大程度上是因为以前土地被过度放牧,化肥被大量滥用。但到目前为止,这还没有真正开始,农业补贴(用于农业的任何资金)将于明年耗尽。我们根本不能自给自足,不是因为缺少农业,纯粹是因为这个小岛上荒谬的(巨大)人口数量
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ragnarspoonbrok
UK as a whole could be. Would require a massive shift in diets and the removal of meat but yeah we could do it. Wouldn't be fun and would require a fuck load more farmers and fishermen killing off most of the fish at the same time. But we could. Like I said we have more space set out for golf courses than growing fruit and veg. Rest is for animals/animal produce/left wild.
Crop rotation would help with the soul quality to a degree.

作为一个整体,英国可以做到自给自足。这就需要饮食上的巨大转变,不吃肉,但我们可以做到。这一点都不好玩,还需要多得多的农民和渔民同时杀死大部分的鱼。但是我们可以做到。就像我说的,我们有更多的土地空间去建高尔夫球场了,而不是种植水果和蔬菜。其他的土地则用来供给动物/动物产品/未利用。
作物轮作也将在一定程度上帮助改善土壤品质。

Farren246
"Ecological destruction" can easily happen when rising sea levels sink your largest (coastal) cities, displacing millions. That leaves your supply chain useless - where do you deliver food to when there is no centre of population? Even if the population somehow stayed together as they relocated inland, you can't just dump meat into the middle of a crowd; you need efficient distribution such as meat shops, and refridgeration in homes so it doesn't spoil, both of which no longer exist. And the industrial centres that can made and service farm equipment would suffer a huge hit. These all add up to mass starvation. Well... first it means people roaming the countryside eating anything they can get their hands on even if they have to steal it, even things like seeds that could be planted to create more food down the line. And when THEN after THAT food runs out, comes the mass starvation.

当海平面上升使最大的(沿海)城市下沉,数百万人流离失所时,“生态破坏”就很容易发生。这会让你的供应链变得毫无用处——如果没有人口中心,你要把食物送到哪里去呢?即使人口迁移到内陆后还聚在一起,你也不能就这么把肉扔到人群中间;你需要有效的配送,比如肉店,送到家里的冰箱,使它不变质,但(届时)这两种东西已经不复存在了。并且生产和服务农业设备的工业中心将遭受巨大打击。这些都会导致大规模的饥荒。好吧…首先,这意味着人们在乡间游荡,吃他们能拿到的任何东西,甚至是偷来的,甚至是可以种植更多食物的种子。当食物被耗尽后,就会出现大规模饥荒。

Ghostifier2k0
Really depends which part of the UK you live in. Folks who don't live here might not know but the South gets significantly worse effects such as flooding, massive heatwaves and what not.
In the North things are very ideal.
For my Irish homies they've got to be worried a bit because when a major storm happens they're always the first to be impacted by the strongest of that storm.
For me I believe Northern England or Scotland would be the more ideal places. After all in a couple decades London is going to be having flooding problems.

文明能不能延续下来取决于你住在英国的哪个地区。不住在这里的人可能不知道,南方受到的影响更严重,比如洪水、大规模热浪等等。
但在北方,一切都很理想。
对于我的爱尔兰同胞来说,他们有点担心,因为当一场大风暴发生时,他们总是第一个受到最强风暴的影响。
对我来说,我相信英格兰北部或苏格兰会是更理想的地方。毕竟,再过几十年,伦敦就将面临洪水泛滥的问题了。

ExpensiveTwist4432
According to the study, 72% of the UK consists of arable land. A significant fraction of that is current un- or underexploited, with large inefficiencies in food usage (30% wasted). A reduction in food wastage, combined with elimination of animal feed growing, would basically get you to 100% self-sufficiency without major changes in land under cultivation. Meat products would still be available from semi-arable, hilly grasslands, although this would be rarer and more expensive.
There are also fairly large reserves of mineral resources, including lithium. There is also a good availability of natural gas for the haber-borsch process (inorganic fertiliser supplies). Coal liquification could be used to replace oil imports provided petrochemicals are reserved for only military/pharmaceutical/agricultural usage.
Something not mentioned in the paper, but particularly relevant, is regional versus national collapse. A non-collapsed UK sits next to a non-collapsed Ireland, and make up for each others weakness in agricultural production and industrial base respectively.

根据这项研究(译注:链接),英国72%的土地是耕地。其中很大一部分是目前未开发或未充分开发的,在产粮使用方面存在很大的效率低下(30%被浪费了)。减少食物浪费,再加上减少动物饲料的种植,基本上就可以在不改变耕地的情况下实现100%的自给自足。肉制品仍然可以从半可耕种的丘陵草原上得到,尽管这将更加稀少和昂贵。
还有相当大的矿产资源储备,包括锂。此外,天然气的供应也很好,能保障哈伯博斯制氨法(无机肥料供应)。如果石化产品只用于军事/医药/农业用途,煤化油可以用来替代石油进口。
这篇文章没有提到,但与此特别相关的是地区与国家的崩溃。一个没有崩溃的英国紧挨着一个没有崩溃的爱尔兰,在农业生产和工业基础上正好相互弥补各自的弱点。

Pootle001
Would the UK be able to get oil? Oil will be needed for agriculture. At present it gets it from Norway and the US.
What would the UK do about climate refugees? There will hundreds of thousands arriving each week. Shoot them on the beach? EAT them?

英国能得到石油吗?农业将需要石油。目前,它是从挪威和美国进口的。
英国将如何应对气候难民?每周将有数十万人抵达。难不成在海滩上射杀他们吗?吃掉他们吗?

oxyoxyboi
Yes likely they will be shot on arrival, with large migrant group in cities vs country sides expect tribalism and regional skirmishes. Diversity is nice until SHTF then sadly people tend to align to factors most common to them - Race n religion

是的,他们可能会在抵达后被枪杀,城市和农村的大量移民群体预计会发生部落冲突和地区冲突。多样性是好的,但不幸的是,人们倾向于与他们最常见的因素保持一致——种族和宗教

OvershootDieOff
Ireland; yes: population 6 million. UK population: 70 million = lots of death.

爱尔兰:能延续,因为人口只有600万。英国人口:7000万 = 要死上一大堆。

anthropoz
So you think the government of the UK government would just let 70 million people starve while defenceless Ireland produces an excess of food? 70 million = lots of soldiers.

所以你认为英国政府的政府会让7000万人挨饿,而毫无防御能力的爱尔兰却生产过剩的粮食?要知道7000万 = 很多士兵。
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OvershootDieOff
Really? And who is going to join the British Army when there is no money to pay them. How many people are going to leave their families and go on an expedition? Not many. The ruling classes will use the military to preserve order for as long as possible. When food gets short people will be busy fending off migrant crossing the channel.

真的吗?有谁会在拿不到军饷的情况下加入英国军队呢?有多少人会离开家人去冒险?没有几个。统治阶级将尽可能长时间地使用军队来维持秩序。当食物短缺时,人们将忙于阻挡横渡海峡的移民。

Accomplished_Fly882
The Brits at it once again, having exported the industrial revolution, colonial oppression and cricket to the rest of the world, and now sitting here as everyone else dies. (At least this time we're not fully fucking the Irish over). Classic Brits.

英国人又来了一次,把工业革命、殖民压迫和板球输出到世界其他地方,现在却坐在这里坐看其他人死去。(至少这次我们没有把爱尔兰人整惨)。真是典型的英国人。

Plappeye
Tbf I could totally see Britiain fucking the Irish over in this scenario, invade to secure food production etc, or just as a nationalistic distraction lol, hopeful we'd work together peacefully tho

说实话,在这种情况下,我完全可以预见英国会cao爱尔兰,为了安全的粮食生产而入侵它等等,或者只是分散民族主义的注意力,呵呵,希望我们能和平合作

OvershootDieOff
Britain has one huge disadvantage over Ireland - a vast immigrant population. When societies start to collapse they disintegrate into factions. In fact I think inter regional conflict will be the issue. London gets not enough food - so people go into the rural areas and pillage agricultural areas, leading to further reductions in food supply. The logical use for military force would be to circumvallate the cities and prevent raiding.
Also I will wager that nothing will bring the Nationalists and unxists together faster than having to repel boatloads of unwanted people.

与爱尔兰相比,英国有一个巨大的劣势——庞大的移民人口。当社会开始崩溃时,它们就会分裂成派系。事实上,我认为地区间的冲突将是问题所在。伦敦没有足够的食物,所以人们会进入农村地区,抢劫农业区,导致食物供应进一步减少。军事力量的合理用途是拱卫城市,防止袭击。
我还敢打赌,没有什么比击退一船又一船不受欢迎的人更能让民族主义者和统一派团结起来了。

tossacoin2yourwitch
It would be interesting to see all these global scenarios play out.
Ireland is in the EU. If it’s one of the best places to escape to, would Ireland quickly start to fill up with European immigrants escaping climate catastrophe? Would the UK erect a massive border wall in Northern Ireland or would Ireland decide it was better off with Britain. Or would Britain abandon NI?

如果能看到所有这些全球性的情景发生,那将是一件有趣的事情。
爱尔兰是欧盟成员国。如果爱尔兰是避难的最佳地点之一,那么逃离气候灾难的欧洲移民会不会很快就挤爆爱尔兰呢?是英国在北爱尔兰竖起一堵巨大的边境墙,还是爱尔兰认为和英国在一起更好?还是说英国会放弃北爱尔兰?

Plappeye
Well Ireland would likely accept a fair number of European migrants but in a global collapse sort of thing we'd decide that number ourselves, freedom of movement would be entirely optional for each state. Border wall is impossible, UK and Ireland would defo cooperate together yeah, probs with Iceland and the British and Danish too, get a whole North sea thing going on, tho we'd never join an actual unx again lol.
The only real way for large number of climate refugees to get in would be on the southern English coast, so pretty dystopian measures would probably be needed there.

好吧,爱尔兰可能会接受相当数量的欧洲移民,但在全球崩溃的情况下,我们会自己决定移民的数量,移民自由将完全由每个国家选择。边境墙是不可能的,英国和爱尔兰肯定会合作,可能还会和冰岛、英国和丹麦合作,搞出一个北海联合之类的东西,不过我们永远不会再加入一个真正的联盟了,呵呵。
大量气候难民进入英国的唯一路径是在英国南部海岸,所以那里可能需要相当反乌托邦的措施。

CarpeValde
While it’s possible, I think it may not be necessary. Ireland grows enough food to feed all of uk and itself, maybe not a ideal varied diet but food aplenty. I could see a food for defense/electricity partnership as well - though likely to be very strained by crises.
Basically I’d think greater cooperation would happen, followed by decay.

虽然有可能,但我认为没有必要。爱尔兰种植的食物足够养活整个英国和它自己,也许不是一个理想的多样化的饮食,但起码能温饱。我还可以看到一个食品国防/电力合作伙伴关系——尽管可能会因危机而非常紧张。
基本上,我认为更大的合作会发生,随之而来的是衰退。

Plappeye
Yeah I'd hope we'd pull together, we have the Council of the Isles, which is the nation's of the UK, the crown dependencies and Ireland, combine that with Iceland and Danish dependencies and it could be a nice little sphere of cooperation. Ireland as a bread basket, the UK providing manufacturing and protection, plenty of fishing and energy resources to go around.

是的,我希望我们能团结起来,我们有群岛委员会,这是英国的联邦国家、皇家属地和爱尔兰,再将其与冰岛和丹麦属地结合起来,这将是一个很好的合作领域。爱尔兰当一个面包篮子,英国则提供制造业和军事保护、丰富的渔业和能源资源。

PapaPeaches1
Another good thing about Britain is that it has a navy to go get oil and other resources for the islands if they need any which is a good thing.

英国的另一个好处在于,如果他们需要石油和其他资源,他们有一支皇家海军,这是一件好事。

BernieSnowden
Thank fuck I have Irish citizenship.

谢天谢地我有爱尔兰公民身份。

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