2021-08-02 jiangye111 15645
UK and Ireland among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, study suggests
-Researchers say a worldwide breakdown could happen "within a few decades" and have identified five countries most likely to withstand future threats.


(The UK and Ireland were among five countries identified by researchers as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders)


The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.


A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.


A "very likely" collapse would be characterised by the disintegration of supply chains, international agreements and global financial structures, according to researchers at the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University.


They said problems could spread quickly because of how connected and economically dependant countries are on one another.

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Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.

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All of them are islands or island continents which have fewer extremes in temperatures and varied amounts of rainfall due to their proximity to oceans.


Researchers said this makes them most likely to have relatively stable conditions in the future, despite the effects of climate change - which is expected to hit subtropics and tropics the hardest.


New Zealand's ability to produce geothermal and hydroelectric energy, its abundant agricultural land and its low population would allow it to survive relatively unscathed.


Although the UK has generally fertile soils and varied agricultural output, it does not have as much agricultural land available because of its population density, raising questions about future self-sufficiency.


Britain's reliance on fossil fuels and nuclear energy was considered to be a risk as power sources could be "rendered at least partly inoperable" if global supply chains collapse.


Researchers said this could be mitigated by the nation's manufacturing capabilities.


Meeting the large population's energy demands through renewables alone would require very extensive infrastructure, they said, but the UK could increase its resilience by harnessing more energy from wind and water bodies like lagoons or barrages in the Severn Estuary.


Professor Aled Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said "significant changes are possible in the coming years and decades".


He said: "The impact of climate change, including increased frequency and intensity of drought and flooding, extreme temperatures, and greater population movement, could dictate the severity of these changes."


Researchers identified pandemics as another risk to societal stability, citing the United Nations' warning that future pandemics could be even more severe than COVID-19.


Twenty countries were analysed in the report.


Speaking from the UK, I have a terrible, sinking feeling that Brexit was my country pulling up the ladder on the rest of Europe.


I’ve been thinking that…
Governments must know that they need to plan for this shit. They won’t tell us as it will lead to anarchy.
Fucking Britain, we’re the worst
Colonises world, takes resources, becomes superpower Starts industrial Revolution, setting of climate change Spends a few decades playing nicely with the other countries, gives back colonies, joins with Europe Leaves Europe, watches the world burn


They literally can’t produce enough food to feed everyone. They’re going to have to cull the population of that was the plan


The UK can easily feed it's own population. The types of food grown depends on market price, not calorie efficiency. During WW2 British agriculture basically became a planned economy, and the people's diets actually improved, at the cost of variety.


In the 80’s, before Thatcherite privatisation we were 80% self sufficient. Now we are under 50%. With the ramifications of brexit, it will be even less, seeing we can’t get labour to pick the crops and they are left to rot. If we want to achieve food security at high levels, we really need to pull our socks up. Though, this isn’t even on the horizon, the politicians in charge can’t see beyond their immediate self interests.


Is the UK able to feed its population on its own? Without importing food? I can't believe it


It would be a struggle, but I think it’s possible. Lots of our land is golf courses, National parks, Dutchy land (belongs to the royals) etc. Much of that could become farm land. Island nations have a resource in fish many nations don’t have Lots of mountains and sea for wind power Rivers and lakes in Scotland and Wales for water We’d have to ration, stop industrial meat and dairy production (much of our farm land is for animal feed) Convert all personal gardens to allotments and for keeping chickens and other small animals Lots of us are obese too, we’ve got a few years worth of fat supply


By the time climate collapses, overfishing will have destroyed most of oceanic life on earth. Netflix's seaspiracy (if I remember the name right) covered the impending destruction of the oceans quite extensively and posited that most fish populations will be gone before 2050. Not to mention that the eventual collapse of the Gulf Stream would also turn Britain's sunny upplands into snowy Siberia pretty quick. As such, I remain highly sceptical of Britain surviving this.


Firstly, I enjoyed seaspiracy and haven’t eaten fish for 5 years for these reasons…but it didn’t hold up too well against fact checkers. Secondly, no one knows what kind of chaos is going to go off with the Gulf Stream if it were to collapse, so yes this is a possibility but not a certainly.


The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.
A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within few decades", with climate change making things worse.
A "very likely" collapse would be characterised by the disintegration of supply chains, international agreements and global financial structures, according to researchers at the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University.
The five are New Zealand, Iceland, United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia
Interesting that these are all islands

这五个国家是新西兰、冰岛、英国、爱尔兰和澳大利亚 有趣的是,这些都是岛屿国家

Interesting that these are all islands
And almost all of them are English-speaking; it sounds like a bias. Also, I know for a fact that the UK is not self-sufficient in food.


Has a lot to do with farms being paid to let them grow wild flowers and act as flood plains, and the sheer amount grown for animal feed. Hell we give more land to golf courses than we do to fruit and veg growth.


Are you talking about England? Currently over 60% of our land is used for agricultural produce, we are extremely agricultural based, also the wild flower comment, I don't even know where to begin, yeah grants are now being released to encourage biodiversity, soil health and planting trees, largely because previously the land has been overgrazed and fertilizers have been massively over used. But so far that hasn't begun properly, the farm payment grant (money for farming anything) runs out next year. We are not self sustainable at all, not due to a lack of farming, purely due to a ridiculous population for a small island

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UK as a whole could be. Would require a massive shift in diets and the removal of meat but yeah we could do it. Wouldn't be fun and would require a fuck load more farmers and fishermen killing off most of the fish at the same time. But we could. Like I said we have more space set out for golf courses than growing fruit and veg. Rest is for animals/animal produce/left wild.
Crop rotation would help with the soul quality to a degree.


"Ecological destruction" can easily happen when rising sea levels sink your largest (coastal) cities, displacing millions. That leaves your supply chain useless - where do you deliver food to when there is no centre of population? Even if the population somehow stayed together as they relocated inland, you can't just dump meat into the middle of a crowd; you need efficient distribution such as meat shops, and refridgeration in homes so it doesn't spoil, both of which no longer exist. And the industrial centres that can made and service farm equipment would suffer a huge hit. These all add up to mass starvation. Well... first it means people roaming the countryside eating anything they can get their hands on even if they have to steal it, even things like seeds that could be planted to create more food down the line. And when THEN after THAT food runs out, comes the mass starvation.


Really depends which part of the UK you live in. Folks who don't live here might not know but the South gets significantly worse effects such as flooding, massive heatwaves and what not.
In the North things are very ideal.
For my Irish homies they've got to be worried a bit because when a major storm happens they're always the first to be impacted by the strongest of that storm.
For me I believe Northern England or Scotland would be the more ideal places. After all in a couple decades London is going to be having flooding problems.


According to the study, 72% of the UK consists of arable land. A significant fraction of that is current un- or underexploited, with large inefficiencies in food usage (30% wasted). A reduction in food wastage, combined with elimination of animal feed growing, would basically get you to 100% self-sufficiency without major changes in land under cultivation. Meat products would still be available from semi-arable, hilly grasslands, although this would be rarer and more expensive.
There are also fairly large reserves of mineral resources, including lithium. There is also a good availability of natural gas for the haber-borsch process (inorganic fertiliser supplies). Coal liquification could be used to replace oil imports provided petrochemicals are reserved for only military/pharmaceutical/agricultural usage.
Something not mentioned in the paper, but particularly relevant, is regional versus national collapse. A non-collapsed UK sits next to a non-collapsed Ireland, and make up for each others weakness in agricultural production and industrial base respectively.


Would the UK be able to get oil? Oil will be needed for agriculture. At present it gets it from Norway and the US.
What would the UK do about climate refugees? There will hundreds of thousands arriving each week. Shoot them on the beach? EAT them?


Yes likely they will be shot on arrival, with large migrant group in cities vs country sides expect tribalism and regional skirmishes. Diversity is nice until SHTF then sadly people tend to align to factors most common to them - Race n religion


Ireland; yes: population 6 million. UK population: 70 million = lots of death.

爱尔兰:能延续,因为人口只有600万。英国人口:7000万 = 要死上一大堆。

So you think the government of the UK government would just let 70 million people starve while defenceless Ireland produces an excess of food? 70 million = lots of soldiers.

所以你认为英国政府的政府会让7000万人挨饿,而毫无防御能力的爱尔兰却生产过剩的粮食?要知道7000万 = 很多士兵。
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Really? And who is going to join the British Army when there is no money to pay them. How many people are going to leave their families and go on an expedition? Not many. The ruling classes will use the military to preserve order for as long as possible. When food gets short people will be busy fending off migrant crossing the channel.


The Brits at it once again, having exported the industrial revolution, colonial oppression and cricket to the rest of the world, and now sitting here as everyone else dies. (At least this time we're not fully fucking the Irish over). Classic Brits.


Tbf I could totally see Britiain fucking the Irish over in this scenario, invade to secure food production etc, or just as a nationalistic distraction lol, hopeful we'd work together peacefully tho


Britain has one huge disadvantage over Ireland - a vast immigrant population. When societies start to collapse they disintegrate into factions. In fact I think inter regional conflict will be the issue. London gets not enough food - so people go into the rural areas and pillage agricultural areas, leading to further reductions in food supply. The logical use for military force would be to circumvallate the cities and prevent raiding.
Also I will wager that nothing will bring the Nationalists and unxists together faster than having to repel boatloads of unwanted people.


It would be interesting to see all these global scenarios play out.
Ireland is in the EU. If it’s one of the best places to escape to, would Ireland quickly start to fill up with European immigrants escaping climate catastrophe? Would the UK erect a massive border wall in Northern Ireland or would Ireland decide it was better off with Britain. Or would Britain abandon NI?


Well Ireland would likely accept a fair number of European migrants but in a global collapse sort of thing we'd decide that number ourselves, freedom of movement would be entirely optional for each state. Border wall is impossible, UK and Ireland would defo cooperate together yeah, probs with Iceland and the British and Danish too, get a whole North sea thing going on, tho we'd never join an actual unx again lol.
The only real way for large number of climate refugees to get in would be on the southern English coast, so pretty dystopian measures would probably be needed there.


While it’s possible, I think it may not be necessary. Ireland grows enough food to feed all of uk and itself, maybe not a ideal varied diet but food aplenty. I could see a food for defense/electricity partnership as well - though likely to be very strained by crises.
Basically I’d think greater cooperation would happen, followed by decay.


Yeah I'd hope we'd pull together, we have the Council of the Isles, which is the nation's of the UK, the crown dependencies and Ireland, combine that with Iceland and Danish dependencies and it could be a nice little sphere of cooperation. Ireland as a bread basket, the UK providing manufacturing and protection, plenty of fishing and energy resources to go around.


Another good thing about Britain is that it has a navy to go get oil and other resources for the islands if they need any which is a good thing.


Thank fuck I have Irish citizenship.