网友讨论:求仁得仁,特朗普支持者群体的新冠死亡率遥遥领先!
2021-12-11 盐兆 19891
正文翻译

Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. That's according to a new analysis by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a significant share of the deaths in the pandemic.
NPR looked at deaths per 100,000 people in roughly 3,000 counties across the U.S. from May 2021, the point at which vaccinations widely became available. People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.78 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates.
In October, the reddest tenth of the country saw death rates that were six times higher than the bluest tenth, according to Charles Gaba, an independent health care analyst who's been tracking partisanship trends during the pandemic and helped to review NPR's methodology. Those numbers have dropped slightly in recent weeks, Gaba says: "It's back down to around 5.5 times higher."

自2021年5月以来,在上次总统大选中大力支持唐纳德·特朗普的地区的人们死于新冠病毒的概率遥遥领先,是现任总统拜登支持者所在地区的三倍。这一结论来自与美国国家公共广播电台的一项新的研究,此项研究旨在调查政治分化和误导性信息是如何在疫情大流行中对死亡病例产生重大影响的。
美国国家公共广播电台调查了全美约三千个地区每十万人的死亡人数,时间起点是疫苗接种开始广泛施行的2021年5月。
在特朗普大选支持率超过60%甚至更高的地区,当地人的新冠死亡率是拜登支持者地区的2.78倍。特朗普支持率愈高的地区,新冠病毒死亡率愈高。
根据独立医疗保健分析师查尔斯加巴的观点,在10月份,前十分之一的泛红城市的新冠死亡率是前十分之一的泛蓝地区的新冠死亡率的6倍。查尔斯加巴一直在跟踪疫情大流行期间的党派趋势,并且帮助审查美国国家公共广播电台的(研究所采用的)方法论,他说这些数字在最近几周有轻微的回落,到了大概5.5倍的水平。

The trend was robust, even when controlling for age, which is the primary demographic risk of COVID-19 mortality. The data also reveal a major contributing factor to the death rate difference: The higher the vote share for Trump, the lower the vaccination rate.
The analysis only looked at the geographic location of COVID-19 deaths. The exact political views of each person taken by the disease remains unknowable. But the strength of the association, combined with polling information about vaccination, strongly suggests that Republicans are being disproportionately affected.
Recent polling shows that partisanship is now this single strongest identifying predictor of whether someone is vaccinated. Polling also shows that mistrust in official sources of information and exposure to misinformation, about both COVID-19 and the vaccines, run high among Republicans.

“年龄”是新冠病毒死亡病例的首要人口学特征,即使控制“年龄”这一变量,这一趋势也是明显稳健的。数据还揭示了造成如此不同新冠死亡率的一个主要因素:特朗普投票支持率愈高的地区,其新冠疫苗接种率愈低。
这一研究只调查了新冠病毒死亡病例的地理分布。每个新冠死亡病例的确切政治观点仍然无法得知。即使在控制年龄的情况下,这一趋势也是稳健的,因为年龄是COVID-19死亡率的主要人口学风险。数据还显示了造成死亡率差异的一个主要因素。特朗普的得票率越高,疫苗接种率越低。
该分析只考察了COVID-19死亡的地理位置,至于每个新冠死亡病例的确切政治观点,我们仍然无法得知。但这种(新冠病毒死亡率和特朗读支持率之间)关联的程度,再加上有关疫苗接种的民调信息,强烈暗示着共和党人群染疫的概率有受到(其政治倾向)的影响。
最近的民意调查显示,党派类别现在是这个人是否接种疫苗的唯一最有力的识别标签。民调还显示,在共和党人群中,对官方信息的不信任度以及对新冠病毒和疫苗的错误信息的接受度都很高。

"An unvaccinated person is three times as likely to lean Republican as they are to lean Democrat," says Liz Hamel, vice president of public opinion and survey research at the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health policy think tank that tracks attitudes toward vaccination. Political affiliation is now the strongest indicator of whether someone is vaccinated, she says: "If I wanted to guess if somebody was vaccinated or not and I could only know one thing about them, I would probably ask what their party affiliation is."
It was not always this way. Earlier in the pandemic, many different groups expressed hesitancy toward getting vaccinated. African Americans, younger Americans and rural Americans all had significant portions of their demographic that resisted vaccination. But over time, the vaccination rates in those demographics have risen, while the rate of Republican vaccination against COVID-19 has flatlined at just 59%, according to the latest numbers from Kaiser. By comparison, 91% of Democrats are vaccinated.

“一个未接种疫苗的人倾向于共和党的可能性是倾向于民主党的可能性的三倍,”凯撒家庭基金会负责舆论和调查研究的副总裁莉兹哈梅尔说,该基金会是一个无党派健康政策智库,致力于跟踪民众对疫苗接种的态度。她说:"如果我想猜测某人是否接种了疫苗,而我只能知道他们的一件事,我可能会问他们的党派是什么。"
事实并非总是如此,在大流行的早期,许多不同的群体对接种疫苗表示犹豫不决。非裔美国人、年轻的美国人和乡村地区的美国人都有很大一部分人抵制接种疫苗。但随着时间的推移,这些人群的疫苗接种率已经上升,而根据凯撒公司的最新数据,共和党人群的新冠疫苗疫苗接种率已经停滞不前,只有区区59%,相比之下,91%的民主党人群都接种了疫苗。

Being unvaccinated increases the risk of death from COVID-19 dramatically, according to the CDC. The vast majority of deaths since May, around 150,000, have occurred among the unvaccinated, says Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.
While vaccine hesitancy exists in many different groups, Hotez suspects that the deaths are "overwhelmingly" concentrated in more politically conservative communities. "How does this make sense at any level?" he asks.

根据CDC的数据,未接种疫苗会大大增加新冠病毒的死亡风险。贝勒医学院国家热带医学学院院长彼得霍特兹说,自5月以来,绝大多数的死亡病例(大约15万例),都发生在未接种疫苗的人群中。
虽然在许多不同的群体中都存在对疫苗的踌躇不决,但霍特兹怀疑这些死亡病例“绝大多数”都集中在政治上比较保守的社区。

The consequences for individuals are real. Mark Valentine still remembers when his brother called him to tell him he had contracted coronavirus. Valentine is a trial consultant in North Carolina. His brother Phil, 61, was a well-known conservative talk show host in Nashville, Tenn., who often expressed skepticism about vaccination.
Neither brother was vaccinated, and neither one was particularly worried about Phil's positive result. His brother said he was trying several alternative therapies commonly promoted in conservative circles. "He said, 'I've got the ivermectin, I started it this morning, and I don't think it's going to be a big deal,' " Mark Valentine recalls. "And frankly I didn't think about it anymore."
But a week later, Mark said he got a call from his brother's wife saying that the two were going to the hospital. "Before I knew it, he was in there and I couldn't get to him, couldn't talk to him," Valentine recalls. "His situation took a nosedive like you can't believe."
Phil Valentine died in August about five weeks after he announced he had tested positive for COVID-19.

对个人来说,后果是真实的。马克-瓦伦丁仍然记得当时他的兄弟打电话来,说他感染了新冠病毒。瓦伦丁是北卡罗来纳州的一名审判顾问。他的哥哥菲尔,61岁,是田纳西州纳什维尔的一位知名保守派脱口秀主持人,他经常对疫苗接种的作用表示怀疑。
兄弟俩都没有接种疫苗,也都对菲尔的阳性结果没有特别地担心。他的哥哥说,他正在尝试保守派圈子里普遍提倡的几种替代疗法。根据马克瓦伦丁的回忆,菲尔说“我有伊维菌素,我今天早上开始服用,我不认为这将是一个大问题”。马克说,“后来我也就没有再关注这件事"。
但是一个星期后,马克接到了他嫂子的电话,说他们夫妻俩要去医院。“在我了解情况之前,他已经在医院那里了,我无法接近他,无法和他说话,”瓦伦丁回忆说,“他的情况急转直下,让你无法相信。”
宣布新冠病毒检测阳性的五周后,菲尔在八月去世了。

Misinformation appears to be a major factor in the lagging vaccination rates. The Kaiser Family Foundation's polling shows Republicans are far more likely to believe false statements about COVID-19 and vaccines. A full 94% of Republicans think one or more false statements about COVID-19 and vaccines might be true, and 46% believe four or more statements might be true. By contrast, only 14% of Democrats believe four or more false statements about the disease.
Belief in multiple false statements highly correlates with vaccination status, Hamel says. "If you believe that the vaccines can damage your fertility, that they contain a microchip and that the government is inflating the number of COVID-19 deaths, you're going to think really differently about whether to get vaccinated."

错误信息似乎是导致疫苗接种率落后的一个主要因素。凯撒家庭基金会的民意调查显示,共和党人更有可能相信关于新冠病毒和疫苗的虚假说法。整整94%的共和党人群认为关于新冠病毒和疫苗的一个或多个错误说法可能是真的,46%的人认为四个或更多的说法可能是真的。相比之下,只有14%的民主党人群相信关于这种疾病的四种或更多的错误说法。
哈梅尔说,相信多种虚假说法与疫苗接种状况高度相关。“如果你相信疫苗会损害你的生育能力,相信疫苗含有微型芯片,相信政府在夸大新冠病毒的死亡人数,那么你在是否接种疫苗的问题上就会有非常不同的想法。”

Hamel says that underestimating the severity of COVID-19 appears to be a major reason why Republicans in particular have fallen behind in vaccination: "We've seen lower levels of personal worry among Republicans who remain unvaccinated," she says. "That's a real contrast with what we saw in communities of color, where there was a high level of worry about getting sick."
Complacency around the risks of contracting COVID-19 certainly seemed to be a major reason why the Valentine brothers avoided vaccination. While not conspiracy theorists, they were staunch Trump supporters. The arrival of coronavirus just ahead of the presidential election of 2020 seemed like "the most fortuitous pandemic in the history of the world" for the Democratic Party, recalls Mark.
Despite the media coverage, Phil Valentine didn't believe COVID-19 was serious as long as you were healthy: "He said, 'The likelihood of me getting it is low. In the unlikely event that I do get it, the likelihood that I will survive it is 99-plus %,' " Mark Valentine recalls.
Vaccine researcher Peter Hotez is deeply troubled by the current state of affairs. A winter surge in COVID-19 cases is brewing, and the newly discovered omicron variant has the potential to make things far worse.
He thinks the elements of the Republican Party that are endorsing anti-vaccine ideas need to take a big step back. "I'm not trying to change Republican thinking or far-right thinking," he says. "I'm trying to say: 'The anti-science doesn't belong; it doesn't fit. ... Just stop it and save lives.' ''
Before his illness, Phil Valentine had sometimes promoted unproven alternative therapies and taken a mocking tone toward vaccination. As his situation deteriorated, Mark says the talk show host realized he needed to encourage his listeners to get vaccinated. Phil told his brother, "'My fear is that because I didn't get it, other folks may not get it," Mark Valentine recalls. The family put out a statement in support of vaccination, and Mark went on to his brother's talk show to encourage listeners to take the shot.

哈梅尔说,低估新冠病毒的严重性似乎是特别是共和党人在疫苗接种方面落后的一个主要原因。"她说:“我们看到仍然没有接种疫苗的共和党人的个人担忧程度较低。”这与我们在有色人种社区看到的情况形成了真正的对比,那里的人们对染疫的担心程度很高。”
围绕着感染新冠病毒的风险而产生的自满情绪似乎是瓦伦丁兄弟没有接种疫苗的一个主要原因。虽然不是阴谋论者,但他们是特朗普的坚定支持者。马克回忆说,冠状病毒在2020年总统选举前的爆发,对民主党来说似乎是 "世界历史上最巧合的大流行病"。
尽管有相关的媒体报道,但菲尔瓦伦丁并不认为新冠病毒很严重,只要你是健康的。他说,“我得这种病的可能性很低”。根据马克瓦伦丁的回忆,菲尔瓦伦丁说:”万一我真的感染了它,我活下来的可能性是99%以上”。
疫苗研究员彼得霍特兹对目前的状况深感不安。新冠病毒病例的冬季激增正在酝酿之中,而新发现的omicron变体有可能使事情变得更糟。
他认为共和党中赞同反疫苗观点的分子需要退后一大步。他说:“我不是要改变共和党人的思想或极右翼思想,我是想说:‘反科学不属于;它不适合... 请停止偏见,拯救生命。''
在患病之前,菲尔瓦伦丁有时会宣传未经证实的替代疗法,并对接种新冠疫苗采取嘲弄的口吻。马克说,随着他哥哥情况的恶化,这位脱口秀主持人意识到他需要鼓励他的听众接种疫苗。根据马克瓦伦丁的回忆,他告诉弟弟:“我担心的是,由于我没有接种疫苗,其他人可能不会接种。”这家人发表了一份支持接种疫苗的声明,马克还在他哥哥的脱口秀里鼓励听众接种疫苗。

原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


评论翻译
A_norny_mousse:
This is the statistic I've been wanting to see for over a year now! Thanks NPR, thanks OP!

这就是我一直想看到的统计报告!感谢!

SheridanVsLennier:
The petty part of my brain says "fuck em".
The empathetic part of my brain says to help them.
The rational part of my brain says they'll reject the offer but to make it anyway.

我内心小气的部分说“去TM的”。
我内心富有同情心的部分说“帮帮他们”。
我内心理性的部分说“他们会拒绝我的帮助,但我还是要提出来”。

Namika:
I still laugh at how the Republicans lost the Georgia Senate race by a smaller margin of votes than the number of registered Republicans who died of Covid in Georgia.
They are literally killing off their own voter base... to own the libs.

一想到这个我就想笑,共和党在佐治亚州参议院选举中失利,他们丢掉的选票数比佐治亚州死于新冠病毒的共和党人数还要少。
他们实际上是在扼杀自己的选民基础......

Slackman0000:
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. At this stage, we might as well end pushing for mandates and just go back to normal baring a few exceptions (like emergency services requiring vaccination).
Pro-vaccine advocates have done their job. It's not their fault if morons don't want to accept it, get COVID and die.

你可以把马引到水边,但你不能强迫它们喝水。在这个阶段,我们不妨停止推动强制性规定,只需回到正常状态,除了少数例外情况(如紧急服务需要接种疫苗)。
疫苗倡导者们已经完成了他们的本职工作。如果哪个白痴不愿意接受接种,感染新冠而翘掉,那就不是疫苗倡导者的错了。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


121mhz:
In my opinion, we should continue to try because collateral deaths from fully vaccinated people in the same area will still be tragic.
You might call those deaths a rare statistic but I called one of them Mom. Fully vaccinated in March, died in the Delta wave in September.

在我看来,我们应该继续尝试推广疫苗,悲惨的是明明完全接种了疫苗的人,却因当地疫情传播而丢掉性命。
你可能认为这些死亡案例只是统计数字中的某个特例,但对我来说却是我的妈妈离去了。她在3月份完全接种疫苗,9月份死于Delta 爆发。

Civil-Night-8378:
These people are insane.

这些人的脑子有点问题。

MethylatedToSeeYou:
I don't think misinformation is the issue. Disinformation is.
Disinformation started by Donald Trump to help him win an election he lost, and perpetuated by Republican governors, senators who hope to gain votes by pandering to trump followers who took everything he said to heart.

我不认为错误信息是问题所在,虚假信息才是关键。
虚假信息是唐纳德特朗普带起来的,用来帮助他赢得(最终失败的)选举,然后共和党州长、参议员们继续鼓吹这些谬论,他们希望通过迎合特朗普的追随者来获得选票,这些追随者把他说的每句话都记在心里。

User avatar:
Well at least they will not be voting in the next election!

好吧,至少他们不能在下一次选举中投票了。

PoppaPipe6000:
Trump lied, people died.

川宝动动嘴,人民直蹬腿。

原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


收藏译文