印度网友讨论:5万亿经济体的目标遥不可及
2022-01-06 碧波荡漾恒河水 29451
正文翻译

The elusive $5-trillion economy

印度网友讨论:5万亿经济体的目标遥不可及

评论翻译
Rosesh_I_Sarabhai
We are in 2020 v3.0 as of today. So 2022 is two years later, so you have to vote for Mudiji again to get 5 trollion economy./s

现在我们要第三次度过2020年。所以2022年是两年后,所以你必须再次投票给莫迪姬,才能实现5万亿经济体。/狗头

SnooSnooDingo
Standup comedy at its best. I love serious comedians.

最精彩的单口相声。我喜欢严肃的喜剧演员。

Worried-Code-83
even if there we would've become 5 trillion economy, it would've been useless because of rising inequality, poverty, hunger, crime, useless education for the majority, etc.

即使我们的经济规模达到了5万亿美元,也无济于事,因为印度依然存在不平等、贫困、饥饿、犯罪、对大多数人无用的教育,等等。

Tough time ahead guys, especially in the Education Sector. Private Companies and Schools/Colleges are going to eat your children for Breakfast and You for Lunch and Everybody else for Dinner.

伙计们,艰难的日子还在后面呢,尤其是在教育领域。私人公司和学校/大学会把你的孩子当早餐吃,把你当午餐吃,把其他人当晚餐吃。

Potential_kitten69
Exactly. GDP is not the only figure that matters. We really need to bring in foreign investment into employment heavy sectors like manufacturing to take the saturation off the agricultural and informal labour market. But instead these clowns opt to raise tariffs in the name of atmanirbhar bharat and destroy value added manufacturing industries that were supposed to be our golden ticket to prosperous virtuous cycle.

完全正确。GDP并不是唯一重要的尺度。我们真的需要把外国投资引入制造业等就业密集型行业,以缓解农业和非正规劳动力市场的饱和状态。但这些小丑却选择以“印度自力更生”的名义提高关税,摧毁附加值制造业,而这些制造业本应是我们通往繁荣良性循环的黄金门票。

drashya
Might get a lot of flak for this (and I’m not bhakt, mind you) - but you gotta take covid into account.

我的看法可能会招致很多批评(请注意,我不是印度人),但你们必须考虑到新冠疫情。

demo_crazy
That covid which has caused historically unprecedented growth in wealth of the rich?

就是那个让富人的财富实现前所未有增长的新冠疫情?
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drashya
Not the nation as a whole. Several sectors are still dead and/or struggling to pick up.
Macro-level trends & analyses don’t go along with ?? -picked datapoints.

并非整个国家都是这样。但有些行业依然停滞不前,和/或难以复苏。
宏观趋势与分析不符合?因为他们对数据精挑细选。

demo_crazy
Indeed. "Covid" and "covid mismanagement" are separate issues though.

确实。“新冠疫情”和“对新冠疫情应对不善”是两个问题。

drashya
Indeed.
Although there were no economies that grew during the last two years, except for those who saw major O&G discoveries (Guyana, Egypt,..) or China.
(I hope we don’t go into the blackhole of why China≠India)

确实。
尽管过去两年所有经济体都没有正增长,除了那些发现重要油气资源的国家(圭亚那、埃及等)还有中国。
(希望我们不要讨论“为什么印度与中国不同”的黑洞问题。)
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demo_crazy
And which economies started shrinking before covid even hit?

哪些经济体在新冠疫情之前就开始萎缩了?

drashya
I guess you can google that ??

我猜你可以谷歌一下?
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demo_crazy
Covid is a factor. Covid is not 'the' factor. We were going that way anyways.

新冠疫情是一个因素,但不是“关键”因素。反正我们也要走上那条路。
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Dex_Lionhart
Don't kid youself, Bangladesh and Vietnam had been growing since the last two years because of their favourable foreign investment policies. The market pie that should've been in our favour after China, our stupid policies and tariffs blew it off.

别自欺欺人了,孟加拉国和越南由于优惠的外国投资政策,在过去两年里一直在增长。市场份额本应有利与我们,让我们紧追中国,但我们的愚蠢政策和关税将其毁掉了。

drashya
You’re right. I seem to have a little lesser understanding of our current economic situation that I thought. I’ll shut up now, and listen more.

你是对的。我对当前经济形势的理解似乎比我想象的要少。我现在闭嘴,多听点。
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Dex_Lionhart
Yea sure sure, been on internet enough to understand sarcasm.

是的,当然当然,我上过网,知道什么是讽刺。

drashya
No I was serious. Sorry if that came off as sarcasm.

不,我是认真的,如果听起来像讽刺我道歉。

mrfreeze2000
My wealth has increased drastically this year. Practically everyone I know who was financially savvy (read: already well off) has grown anywhere from 25-200% in net worth, from 50% increase in salary to 100% growth in equities

我的财富今年急剧增加。实际上,我认识的每一个有金融头脑的人(也就是已经很富有的人)的净资产都增长了25-200%,有人工资增长了50%,有人股票增长了100%。

Potential_kitten69
Even taking Covid into account we were not on track for that goal after the devastating hits from demonetisation and the hastily rolled out GST. Not to mention increasing protectionism (raising trade tariffs makes Indian exports less competitive. That is why our export index value has been stagnant since atmanirbhar bharat began) and violent politics destroying investor confidence in the nation. And even after all of that, investment into healthcare and education (the key sectors that we need to build a powerful human resources base) has dwindled.

即使考虑到新冠疫情,在废币令和匆忙推出的消费税带来的毁灭性打击之后,我们也没有走上实现这一目标的轨道。更不用说日益增长的保护主义(提高贸易关税使印度出口竞争力下降)。这就是为什么我们的出口指数自推出“印度自力更生”政策以来一直停滞不前。而且暴力政治摧毁了投资者对这个国家的信心。即便如此,对医疗保健和教育(这是我们建立强大人力资源基础所需的关键行业)的投资仍在减少。

drashya
Good points..
All I was saying that the economy dropped dead last year, so it will take time for it to even come back to that level. And sure, we might not have reached 5tn by 2022, but we would have been much closer than we are now.

说得好。
我刚才说的是,印度经济去年陷入了低谷,所以要回到那个水平还需要时间。当然,到2022年,我们可能不会达到5万亿美元,但我们会比现在更接近。

When Modi made the 5tn claim in 2018 - the economy already had enough steam that he had to do the bare minimum (keep the govt stable, and let things run BAU) to reach that goal. When covid did hit, he also did the bare minimum - but no matter what he did or could have done - the economy would still have nosedived.

当莫迪在2018年宣布5万亿美元的目标时,我们的经济有足够的动力,以至于他只需要做最低限度的工作(保持政府稳定,让事情一切顺利的动起来),就能实现这一目标。当新冠疫情来袭时,他也做了最低限度的努力——但无论他做了什么,或本可以做什么,经济还是会暴跌。

As for investments in healthcare & education - haven’t read yet about those, but I’m sure you’re right. Only a country with a practically dead education system can give rise to a monster like Byju’s.

至于对医疗保健和教育的投资——我还没有读到这方面的资料,但我相信你是对的。只有教育系统基本上死掉的国家才会产生像Byju这样的怪物。
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TL;DR: both the economy growth pre-Covid and economic nose-dive during covid - were largely out of Modi’s hands.

2019冠状病毒病之前的经济增长和2019冠状病毒病期间的经济暴跌,在很大程度上都不在莫迪的掌控之中。

Potential_kitten69
TL;DR: both the economy growth pre-Covid and economic nose-dive during covid - were largely out of Modi’s hands.
What? It was literally started by his government.

什么?(下跌)实际上是由他的政府开始的。

Most of the things that have lead to a significant slowdown in employment and the general economy were directly from the actions and inactions of the government. Even if things went BAU, it would definitely not hit 5 trillion because of the sheer stupidity of the return to protectionism and destruction of value added industry.

导致就业和整体经济大幅放缓的大部分原因,是政府的作为和不作为。由于回归保护主义的极端愚蠢做法,以及对增值产业的破坏,即使一切顺利,印度的经济总量也肯定不会达到5万亿。

One thing that the Modi govt has been doing ok (or maybe even better) is in infrastructure. Our logistics network is a nightmare but the current govt has been making good advances in road laying and building dedicated economic corridors. Whether they will be completed on time remains to be seen but they are making the effort.

莫迪政府在基础设施方面做得不错(甚至可能更好)。我们的物流网络是一场噩梦,但现任政府在道路铺设和建设专用经济走廊方面取得了良好进展。能否按时完成还有待观察,但他们正在努力。

Now back to the failures: the PLI scheme is a vibrant display of the incompetence of the govt as they are trying to pay companies to set up business in a place that does not make logical sense to do so and that too only in sext industries. Instead of you know... working on making India a favourable place to set up the businesses and global supply chain processes that are moving out of an increasingly expensive China. The market share being absorbed by India is a minute fraction of its actual capacity and the rest is going to focused countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh etc that have favourable policies.

现在回到失败的地方:PLI计划有力的展现了政府的无能,因为他们试图付钱给公司,让后者在一个不合理的地方做生意,而且只在某些特定的行业。而不是你知道的……致力于使印度成为建立企业和全球供应链流程的有利位置,这些企业正从成本日益高昂的中国转移出去。印度吸收的市场份额只是自身实际产能的一小部分,其余的将流向越南、孟加拉国等有优惠政策的重点国家。

In the agricultural sector, their incompetence were put on full display again with the three farm bills that were either a) rolled out specifically to benefit big corporations at the cost of farmers revenues or b) they were too stupid to realise the effect it would have on the market with such a difference in negotiating power b/w farmers and corporations

在农业部门,三个农业法案充分展示了他们的无能,这些法案要么以农民收入为代价,专为大公司而推出;要么太愚蠢,意识不到它们将对市场产生的影响,因为农民和大公司在议价能力上存在巨大的差距。

One of the other big idiotic moves they are doing is the move back to protectionism and raising trade tariffs instead of negotiating free trade agreements to help our businesses. Raising tariffs will choke hold vital value added export industries and make Indian exports uncompetitive compared to the rest of the world. Keep in mind these are the industries that have the most potential to bring in jobs and historically led to social and economic development in Asian nations who's power is a vast labour pool. Another thing they do is keep moving around the tariffs. Even with a raised tariff, if anyone wanted to start a heavily employing manufacturing industry in India (for some reason idk), they would have no assurance that their business won't shut down next year because the govt just felt like raising tariffs on your razor thin margins.

他们正在做的另一个愚蠢的举动,是回归保护主义和提高贸易关税,而不是通过谈判获得自由贸易协定来帮助我们的企业。提高关税将抑制至关重要的附加值出口行业,使印度出口产品与世界其他地区相比失去竞争力。请记住,这些行业带来就业机会的潜力最大,并在历史上引领了亚洲国家的社会和经济发展,这些国家的力量是巨大的劳动力储备。他们做的另一件事是不断绕着关税打转。即使提高了关税,如果有人想在印度建立一家雇佣大量工人的制造业(出于某种原因,我不知道)企业,他们也无法保证他们的企业明年不会关门,因为印度政府只想对他们那利润微薄的产品提高关税。

And if you look at a lot of countries, the economic impact of Covid was disproportionately bad in India. Especially for a growing developing economy like ours. For comparison Bangladesh's economy actually grew in the covid shock.

如果你看看很多国家的情况,就知道新冠疫情对印度的经济造成的影响严重得不成比例。特别是对于像我们这样一个不断发展的经济体来说。相比之下,孟加拉国的经济实际上在新冠疫情冲击下增长了。

Many_Department3366
When Modi made the 5tn claim in 2018 - the economy already had enough steam that he had to do the bare minimum
2017 - India’s GDP was at $2.65 trillion ( UK - $2.64 and France $2.5 trillions)
2018 - India’s GDP was at $2.7 trillion. ( UK - $2.8 and France $2.8 trillions)
Thus, In 2018, India Slipped down (not up) from 5th largest economy to 7th largest economy behind UK and France.

2017年,印度GDP为2.65万亿美元(英国为2.64万亿美元,法国为2.5万亿美元)
2018年,印度GDP为2.7万亿美元。(英国为2.8万亿美元,法国为2.8万亿美元)
因此,2018年,印度从第5大经济体下滑(而非上升)至第7大经济体,排在英国和法国之后。
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India’s GDP growth rates:
2018 - 6.5%
2019 - 4.0%
Even before the pandemic india was doing terrible and it's GDP growth rate was constantly declining after 2016. (just Google the data or check economic survey for verification)
So how in the world would India have doubled it's GDP in 3 years (extra 2.5t) when it barely managed 0.05t in 1 year between 17-2018 when modi told that lie?

印度GDP增长率:

2018 - 6.5%
2019 - 4.0%

即便在大流行之前,印度的情况也很糟糕,2016年后,它的GDP增长率一直在下降。(请搜索数据或经济调查结果进行核实)
那么,在2017-2018年间,也就是莫迪撒下那个谎的时候,印度1年时间勉强实现了0.05万亿的GDP,它怎么可能在3年内(额外增加2.5万亿)翻倍呢?

Dex_Lionhart
Read a bit of history, protectionism never worked for India, ever. Even somewhat of the better conditions we have now is because of globalisation. This protectionist mindset is all politics and is hurting the economy and the masses are devouring this bullcrap like fake nationalism at it's peak.

读一下历史,保护主义对印度从来都不起作用。即便是我们现在所拥有的更好的条件,在某种程度上也是全球化的结果。这种保护主义的思维方式完全是政治,而且正在伤害经济,然而印度的大众却在笑纳这种废话,正如虚假的民族主义正在登峰造极。

buttshnickles
There's no point of discussing why we were never near the $5 trillion target even without the pandemic. Other users have covered it.

讨论为什么即使没有大流行,我们也从未接近5万亿美元的目标是没有意义的。其他用户已经说过了。

The reason for this post is to highlight the unnecessary chest thumping of the current government. Just like the moron went to Davos or some place and declared India "defeated COVID." And the rest is history. And he doesn't fucking learn. It's like he likes accepting an Ocsar even before getting nominated.

发这个帖子的原因是为了强调现任政府不必要的夸夸其谈。就像那个白痴去达沃斯或其他地方宣布印度“击败了新冠病毒”一样。剩下的我们都知道了。而他却不吸取教训。就好像他喜欢在还没被提名之前就“接受”奥萨尔奖一样。

And all these hollow promises is what is driving them to cause more communal divide. Because this way it is easier to keep the public engaged and make them forget the past. Because a hate speech in Dharam Sansad or whatever makes more headlines than employment or economy.

而所有这些空洞的承诺正促使他们制造更大的社会分歧。因为这样更容易让公众参与进来,让他们忘记过去。因为在《达拉姆珊德》上发表仇恨言论之类的比就业或经济更能成为头条新闻。
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Nobody was even expecting or asked for $5 trillion economy. But they sensed the demonatisation fuck-up will come and bite their ass 2-3 years later. So they created a smoke-screen of $5 trillion economy. And they themselves knew perfectly well they won't ever achieve this. So they already had other shenanigans planned. So the whole government has to go and make up figures because the Prime Moron declared something on a whim. Just like he said he fought for Bangladesh's freedom and the PMO had to go in defense mode to cover up for him.

根本没有人期待或要求5万亿美元的经济。但他们意识到,废钞令的失败将在未来2-3年引火烧身。所以他们制造了一个5万亿美元经济的烟幕。而他们自己也很清楚,他们不可能实现它。所以他们已经计划好了其他的鬼把戏。所以因为那个白痴总理一时兴起宣布了什么,整个政府都不得不去编造数据。比如他说他要为孟加拉国的自由而战,PMO就不得不进入防御模式来为他打掩护。

drashya
All of this makes sense. Very insightful!

这些都很有道理,很有见地!

AssCrack_42069
This wannabe intellectual crap is why no one takes redditors seriously.

你这个自以为是的破烂知识分子,就是为什么没人认真对待红迪人的原因。

orangepoopsickle
Its like dangling a carrot in-front of the donkey!

这就像在驴子的前面晃悠一根胡萝卜!

yrumad
IIRC, someone asked the ruling party guy who was harping about 5trillion economy to tell how many zeroes does 5trillion have in it and that guy was wtf? I don't answer "out of syllabus questions" ha ha!

如果我没记错,有个执政党的家伙一直在喋喋不休地谈论5万亿的经济,有人问他5万亿有多少个零,那家伙就傻了。他说:“我不会回答发言大纲之外的问题。”哈哈!

It was hilarious.

简直离谱。
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But sadly, these ninocomps have screwed the economy beyond repair. Only way I see it recovering back is if Dr.MMS takes helm of affair or is actively involved in decisions.

但可悲的是,这些废物把印度经济搞得无法修复。我认为唯一能让它恢复的方法就是MMS(莫汉姆辛格)博士接手或者积极参与决策。
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Consistent-Tie-6619
not possible if india was neoliberal, then it might be possible (well at least 3.5 trillion)

不可能,如果印度搞新自由主义,那或许有可能(至少可以达到3.5万亿)。

UnlikelyCookie3983
Well I wouldn't really go far with this, no one could have predicted that there would be a pandemic so there is really no point in digging on that

嗯,我不会对这个问题说的那么深入,因为没人能预料到会发生一场疫情,所以对这个问题盘根究底真的没有意义。

chet11
We don't even manufacture anything. India is a consumer country. How do they expect to achieve this?

我们根本不制造任何东西。印度是个消费国家。他们怎么能指望实现这个目标?
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evereddy
If all of us had spent the 15L we received on our bank accounts, then we surely would have reached a 5Tr economy!

如果我们把银行账户收到的150万卢比都花掉,那我们肯定能达到5万亿经济体的目标!
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Any-Bug9959
Unfortunately focus is too much on religion rather than development.

不幸的是,人们过于关注宗教而忽视了发展。

mrfreeze2000
Tbh you can easily become a huge economy nominally by artificially inflating assets through endless money printing
At a time of indiscriminate money printing, the 5 trillion of 2025 will not be the same as the 5T of 2020

老实说,通过无休止的印钞,人为地鼓吹资产,我们很容易成为一个名义上的巨大经济体。
在不加选择地印钞的时代,2025年的5万亿美元将不同于2020年的5万亿美元。

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