网帖翻译

The Fed that failed

失败的美联储

Why the Federal Reserve has made a historic mistake on inflation

为什么美联储在通货膨胀方面犯下历史性错误

What comes next will set the path for the world economy

下一步举措将为世界经济指明道路

Central banks are supposed to inspire confidence in the economy by keeping inflation low and stable. America’s Federal Reserve has suffered a hair-raising loss of control. In March consumer prices were 8.5% higher than a year earlier, the fastest annual rise since 1981. In Washington inflation-watching is usually the preserve of wonks in shabby offices. Now nearly a fifth of Americans say inflation is the country’s most important problem; President Joe Biden has released oil from strategic reserves to try to curb petrol prices; and Democrats are searching for villains to blame, from greedy bosses to Vladimir Putin.

中央银行应该通过保持较低和稳定的通胀水平为经济提振信心，但美联储遭遇了惊心动魄的通胀失控。3月份，美国消费价格同比增长8.5%，是1981年以来增速最快的一年。在华盛顿，通货膨胀往往由破旧办公室里的书呆子们专门关注。如今有近20%的美国人认为通胀是美国的头等大事；总统拜登为了抑制汽油价格而释放战略石油储备；民主党正在寻找替罪羊，从贪婪的老板到普京不一而足。

It is the Fed, however, that had the tools to stop inflation and failed to use them in time. The result is the worst overheating in a big and rich economy in the 30-year era of inflation-targeting central banks. The good news is that inflation may have peaked at last. But the Fed’s 2% target will remain a long way off—forcing agonising choices on the central bank. Apologists for America’s policymakers point to annual price rises of 7.5% in the euro area and 7% in Britain as evidence of a global problem, driven by the soaring price of commodities, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nearly three-quarters of the euro zone’s inflation is attributable to rocketing energy and food prices.

然而，正是美联储拥有遏制通胀的工具，却未能及时加以利用。结果在各国央行实行通货膨胀目标制的30年里，这个富裕大国出现了最严重的经济过热。好消息是通胀可能终于见顶了，但距离美联储的2%目标仍然相距甚远，迫使央行面临痛苦的抉择。为美国决策层辩护的人们指出，欧元区和英国的年物价涨幅分别为7.5%和7%，以此证明这是商品价格上涨导致的全球问题，尤其是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来。欧元区近四分之三的通胀源于能源和食品价格的飙升。

America, though, benefits from abundant shale gas, and its higher incomes mean that staples have a smaller effect on average prices. Strip out energy and food and the euro zone’s inflation is 3%—but America’s is 6.5%. Also, America’s labour market, unlike Europe’s, is clearly overheating, with wages growing at an average pace of nearly 6%. Recent falls in the prices of oil, used cars and shipping probably mean that inflation will fall in the coming months. But it will stay far too high, given the underlying upward pressure on prices.

然而，美国受益于储量丰富的页岩气，较高的收入水平意味着粮食对平均价格的影响较小。如果剔除能源和粮食因素，那么欧元区的通胀率为3%，而美国为6.5%。另外与欧洲不同的是，美国劳动力市场明显过热，工资平均增速接近6%。最近石油、二手车、海运价格下降，可能意味着通胀会在未来几个月下降。但考虑到物价面临潜在的上行压力，通胀仍将高居不下。

Uncle Sam has been on a unique path because of Mr Biden’s excessive $1.9trn fiscal stimulus, which passed in March 2021. It added extra oomph to an economy that was already recovering fast after multiple rounds of spending, and brought the total pandemic stimulus to 25% of gdp—the highest in the rich world. As the White House hit the accelerator, the Fed should have applied the brakes. It did not. Its hesitancy stemmed partly from the difficulty of forecasting the path of the economy during the pandemic, and also from the tendency of policymakers to fight the last war. For most of the decade after the global financial crisis of 2007-09 the economy was hung over and monetary policy was too tight. Predicting inflation’s return was for those who wore tinfoil hats.

2021年3月，美国国会通过了拜登先生提交的1.9万亿过度的财政刺激计划，使山姆大叔走上一条独特道路。在经过多轮支出后，这项刺激计划给原本快速复苏的经济增添了更多活力，使疫情财政刺激总额高达GDP的25%，在发达国家中比重最高。当白宫踩油门时，美联储应该踩刹车，但它没有这样做。美联储犹豫不决的部分原因是疫情期间难以预测经济前景，也是因为决策者习惯于打上一场战争。在2007-09全球金融危机结束后的大部分十年里，经济停滞，货币政策过紧，只有阴谋论者才会预测通胀会卷土重来。

Yet the Fed’s failure also reflects an insidious change among central bankers globally. As our special report in this issue explains, around the world many are dissatisfied with the staid work of managing the business cycle and wish to take on more glamorous tasks, from fighting climate change to minting digital currencies. At the Fed the shift was apparent in promises that it would pursue a “broad-based and inclusive” recovery. The rhetorical shift ignored the fact, taught to every undergraduate economist, that the rate of unemployment at which inflation takes off is not something central banks can control.

然而，美联储的失败也反映出全球各国央行的一种隐秘变化。正如我们本期特别报道所阐述的，世界许多央行厌倦了乏味的商业周期管理，它们喜欢承担更令人向往的任务，诸如应对气候变化、铸造数字货币等。美联储的承诺是追求“广泛而包容的”复苏，其中的变化显而易见。这种措辞上的变化忽视了所有本科学历经济学家都学过的事实：导致通货膨胀的失业率不是央行所能控制的。

In September 2020 the Fed codified its new views by promising not to raise interest rates at all until employment had already reached its maximum sustainable level. Its pledge guaranteed that it would fall far behind the curve. It was cheered on by left-wing activists who wanted to imbue one of Washington’s few functional institutions with an egalitarian ethos.

2020年9月，美联储将新的观点加以整理形成了法规条文，承诺在就业率达到可持续的最高水平之前不会加息。该承诺注定了美联储无法做到与时俱进。左翼人士欢呼雀跃，他们希望向华盛顿为数不多的职能机构之一灌输平等主义理念。

The result was a mess which the Fed is only now trying to clear up. In December it projected a measly 0.75 percentage points of interest-rate rises this year. Today an increase of 2.5 points is expected. Both policymakers and financial markets think this will be enough to bring inflation to heel. They are probably being too optimistic again. The usual way to rein in inflation is to raise rates above their neutral level—thought to be about 2-3%—by more than the rise in underlying inflation. That points to a federal-funds rate of 5-6%, unseen since 2007.

结果造成一片混乱，美联储现在才试图清理。12月份，美联储预测今年加息微不足道的0.75个百分点，如今可能加息2.5个百分点。决策层和金融市场都以为这足以遏制通胀，他们可能又过于乐观了。抑制通胀的常用方法是将利率提高到中性水平以上——据认为大约2-3%——超过潜在通胀率的增幅。这意味着联邦基金利率达到2007年以来从未出现的5-6%。

Rates that high would tame rising prices—but by engineering a recession. In the past 60 years the Fed has on only three occasions managed significantly to slow America’s economy without causing a downturn. It has never done so having let inflation rise as high as it is today.

这么高的利率能够抑制物价上涨，但会导致经济衰退。在过去60年里，美联储只有三次在不造成衰退的情况下使经济大幅放缓，在通胀率如今这么高的情况下从未这样做过。

An American contraction therefore hangs over the global economy as part of a trio of risks, along with Europe’s energy security and China’s struggle to suppress covid-19. Poor and middle-income countries in particular have a lot to lose from sharply higher rates at the Fed, which will tempt away capital and weaken their exchange rates, especially if a global downturn saps demand for their exports at the same time.

因此，美国经济萎缩已成为威胁全球经济的三大风险之一，此外还有欧洲能源安全和中国抗击新冠疫情。尤其对于贫穷和中等收入国家，美联储大幅加息会使它们遭受重大损失，导致它们的资本外流和汇率走弱，尤其是全球经济使它们的出口需求下降的时候。

Does the Fed have the stomach to inflict such economic pain? Many economists advocate higher inflation, because in the long run interest rates would go up in tandem, lifting them further away from zero, below which they are hard to cut in a crisis. Inflation is already helping the federal government by shrinking the real value of its debts. Around 2025, when the Fed reviews its policymaking frxwork, it will have the chance to raise the target. There is nothing special about 2%, except the fact that the Fed has promised it in the past.

美联储是否有胆量造成这样的经济困境？许多经济学家支持更高的通胀率，因为从长远来看，利率也会同时上升，从而远离零利率，负利率在危机时期很难下调。通货膨胀正在帮助联邦政府减少债务的实际价值。预计美联储将在2025年左右重新考虑决策框架，届时有机会提高通胀目标。2%没什么特别之处，但美联储以前承诺过这个目标。

My word is my bond

言出必行

Inflation that is stable and modestly above 2% might be tolerable for the real economy, but there is no guarantee the Fed’s stance today can deliver even that. And breaking promises has consequences. It hurts long-term bondholders, including foreign central banks and governments which own $4trn-worth of Treasury bonds. (A decade of 4% inflation instead of 2% would cut the purchasing power of money repaid at the end of that period by 18%.) It might add an inflation risk premium to America’s cost of borrowing. And if even America broke its inflation promises in tough times, investors might worry that other central banks—many of which are looking over their shoulders at indebted governments—would do the same. In the 1980s the recessions brought about by Paul Volcker’s Fed laid the foundations for inflation-targeting regimes worldwide. Every month inflation runs too hot, part of that hard-won credibility ebbs away.

对于实体经济而言，通胀率稳定在略高于2%尚可承受，但美联储当今的立场也无法保证实现这一目标。违背承诺会造成后果，长期债券持有人将遭受损失，包括持有4万亿美元长期国库债券的外国央行和政府（如果十年通胀率达到4%而不是2%，那么到期偿还资金的购买力会下降18%），可能会给美国的借贷成本增加通胀风险溢价。如果就连美国在困难时期也违背通胀承诺，投资者可能担心其他央行也会这样做——许多央行正在密切关注负债的政府。20世纪80年代，保罗·沃尔克执掌的美联储引发了经济衰退，由此为通货膨胀目标制奠定了基础。随着通货膨胀月月过高，来之不易的部分信誉正在逐渐下降。

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