软件开发在35-40岁之后真的是没有前途的工作吗（四）
正文翻译
Is software development really a dead-end job after age 35-40?
软件开发在35-40岁之后真的是没有前途的工作吗?
Is software development really a dead-end job after age 35-40?
软件开发在35-40岁之后真的是没有前途的工作吗?
评论翻译
Zsolt - Dev Career Mastery
If your strengths and expertise lie in software development, becoming a below average manager just burns you out, lowers your self-esteem and your job satisfaction.
Look at all the code schools promising to teach you software development in 3 months. They are trending, because there is a lot more demand for good software developers than supply. This trend will continue.
There are great software developers at the age of 50 or above. One of my neighbors was an excellent software engineer at the age of 60. He kept reinventing himself, and he was competent in whatever field he was in.
If you want some reinforcement, connect with other developers above the age of 40, and see how well they are doing. I could suggest looking at Robert C. Martin, Douglas Crockford, or other well known names, but the perspective is slightly distorted. Look at people who are not influencers, or authors of popular books. There are many great software engineers out there.
Let’s see some statistics. I don’t have access to overall surveys. One source I know about is the user base of StackOverflow. See their 2016 and their 2015 survey on age. The figures seem to be alarming at first glance, 10% to 13%.
如果你的优势和专长在于软件开发，成为一名低于平均水平的管理者只会让你筋疲力尽，降低你的自尊和工作满意度。
看看所有承诺在3个月内教你软件开发的代码学校。他们正在形成趋势，因为对优秀软件开发人员的需求远远大于供给。这一趋势将继续下去。
50岁以上的优秀软件开发人员比比皆是。我的一个邻居60岁时是一名优秀的软件工程师。他一直在重塑自己，他在任何领域都能胜任。
如果你想要在技能上得到一些强化，那就联系其他40岁以上的开发者，看看他们做得如何。我建议可以看看罗伯特·C·马丁、道格拉斯·克罗克福德或其他知名人士，但这种观点略有扭曲。看看那些不是那么有影响力的人，也不是畅销书的作者，有很多是伟大的软件工程师。
让我们看一些数据。我没有去全面的调查资料。我知道的一个来源是StackOverflow的用户群。查看他们2016年和2015年做的年龄调查。乍一看，这些数字似乎令人震惊，从10%到13%。
If your strengths and expertise lie in software development, becoming a below average manager just burns you out, lowers your self-esteem and your job satisfaction.
Look at all the code schools promising to teach you software development in 3 months. They are trending, because there is a lot more demand for good software developers than supply. This trend will continue.
There are great software developers at the age of 50 or above. One of my neighbors was an excellent software engineer at the age of 60. He kept reinventing himself, and he was competent in whatever field he was in.
If you want some reinforcement, connect with other developers above the age of 40, and see how well they are doing. I could suggest looking at Robert C. Martin, Douglas Crockford, or other well known names, but the perspective is slightly distorted. Look at people who are not influencers, or authors of popular books. There are many great software engineers out there.
Let’s see some statistics. I don’t have access to overall surveys. One source I know about is the user base of StackOverflow. See their 2016 and their 2015 survey on age. The figures seem to be alarming at first glance, 10% to 13%.
如果你的优势和专长在于软件开发，成为一名低于平均水平的管理者只会让你筋疲力尽，降低你的自尊和工作满意度。
看看所有承诺在3个月内教你软件开发的代码学校。他们正在形成趋势，因为对优秀软件开发人员的需求远远大于供给。这一趋势将继续下去。
50岁以上的优秀软件开发人员比比皆是。我的一个邻居60岁时是一名优秀的软件工程师。他一直在重塑自己，他在任何领域都能胜任。
如果你想要在技能上得到一些强化，那就联系其他40岁以上的开发者，看看他们做得如何。我建议可以看看罗伯特·C·马丁、道格拉斯·克罗克福德或其他知名人士，但这种观点略有扭曲。看看那些不是那么有影响力的人，也不是畅销书的作者，有很多是伟大的软件工程师。
让我们看一些数据。我没有去全面的调查资料。我知道的一个来源是StackOverflow的用户群。查看他们2016年和2015年做的年龄调查。乍一看，这些数字似乎令人震惊，从10%到13%。
Whether or not age discrimination plays a role, we don’t know. Due to the perceived threat of age discrimination, some people do move into management. Some developers change careers or burn out. Others retire young. Others just got wide enough access to the education path of becoming a software developer. There are also more young people than old people.
Just build and maintain a personal brand for yourself, add value to the company, and eventually you find out that it is a mere limiting belief that age matters. I work with multiple software developers, who are above 40. In our recruitment process, age is simply not a factor.
It is ultimately your choice whether you focus on things you can influence (such as moving towards a fulfilling career), or you focus on things that you can’t influence (such as age discrimination in some unprofessional companies). As at least 10% of software developers are above 40, and there is a continuously increasing gap between demand for developers than supply of competent developers, I would not worry about my future above 40.
年龄歧视是否在其中起作用，我们不得而知。由于受到年龄歧视的威胁，一些人确实进入了管理层。一些开发人员转行或精疲力尽的在写代码。一些人在年轻时就退休了。还有些人只是获得了成为软件开发人员所需的足够广泛的教育途径，不过年轻人也比老年人多。
只要建立和维护你自己的个人品牌，为公司增加价值，最终你就会发现，认为年龄很重要只是一种狭隘的信念。我与多个40岁以上的软件开发人员一起工作。在我们的招聘过程中，年龄根本不是一个因素。
你是关注你能影响的事情(比如走向一个充实的职业生涯)，还是关注你不能影响的事情(比如一些不专业的公司的年龄歧视)，这最终是你的选择。由于至少有10%的软件开发人员年龄在40岁以上，而且有能力的开发人员供不应求，因此我是不会担心40岁以后的未来的。
Just build and maintain a personal brand for yourself, add value to the company, and eventually you find out that it is a mere limiting belief that age matters. I work with multiple software developers, who are above 40. In our recruitment process, age is simply not a factor.
It is ultimately your choice whether you focus on things you can influence (such as moving towards a fulfilling career), or you focus on things that you can’t influence (such as age discrimination in some unprofessional companies). As at least 10% of software developers are above 40, and there is a continuously increasing gap between demand for developers than supply of competent developers, I would not worry about my future above 40.
年龄歧视是否在其中起作用，我们不得而知。由于受到年龄歧视的威胁，一些人确实进入了管理层。一些开发人员转行或精疲力尽的在写代码。一些人在年轻时就退休了。还有些人只是获得了成为软件开发人员所需的足够广泛的教育途径，不过年轻人也比老年人多。
只要建立和维护你自己的个人品牌，为公司增加价值，最终你就会发现，认为年龄很重要只是一种狭隘的信念。我与多个40岁以上的软件开发人员一起工作。在我们的招聘过程中，年龄根本不是一个因素。
你是关注你能影响的事情(比如走向一个充实的职业生涯)，还是关注你不能影响的事情(比如一些不专业的公司的年龄歧视)，这最终是你的选择。由于至少有10%的软件开发人员年龄在40岁以上，而且有能力的开发人员供不应求，因此我是不会担心40岁以后的未来的。
Laeeth Isharc
Couple of years back I got a call from a headhunter looking to fill the job of head of fixed income portfolio management at Blackrock (a very big asset manager). It’s not at all my bag, but I knew they had been looking for a while and was curious about why - it’s a job that probably pays many millions and has high status and you’ll have resources to build things. She said that they want someone who understands markets and is quantitative. Okay - not that many people really _understand_ markets, but we both know plenty of people who could do that job well who would jump at the chance. She said sorry - she meant they wanted someone who could understand markets and _program_.
I almost fell off my chair, because one thinks of that kind of job as a management job where the important things are internal and customer relationships and you don’t have so much time to actually do direct work. But if you look at their website, you’ll see why the new focus. I started programming in 1983, and although I used that skill in finance to solve problems on the side in my spare time (programming really can be like a superpower when your alternative to doing it yourself is that it’s impossible to get what you want done at all), I never played it up, because there is this lingering image of programming and people didn’t associate the qualities needed to be a good programmer with those needed to make money in markets.
几年前，我接到一位猎头的电话，希望我能填补贝莱德（一家非常大的资产管理公司）固定收益投资组合管理主管的职位空缺。这完全不是我的囊中之物，但我知道他们已经找了一段时间了，我很好奇为什么——这是一份可能薪水数百万、地位高、有资源建造东西的工作。她说，他们想要的是懂市场、能量化的人。好吧，真正了解市场的人并不多，但我们都知道很多人可以做好这份工作，他们会抓住这个机会。她说对不起——她的意思是他们需要一个懂市场和程序的人。
我差点从椅子上摔下来，因为人们认为这种工作是一种管理工作，重要的事情是内部和客户关系，你没有那么多时间实际做具体的工作。但如果你看看他们的网站，你就会明白为什么会有新的关注点。我从1983年开始编程，虽然我在业余时间用金融方面的技能来解决问题(编程真的可以像一种超能力，当你不自己动手的时候，你根本不可能得到你想要的)，我从来没有夸大它，因为编程的印象挥之不去，人们没有把成为一名优秀程序员所需的素质与在市场上赚钱所需的素质联系起来。
Couple of years back I got a call from a headhunter looking to fill the job of head of fixed income portfolio management at Blackrock (a very big asset manager). It’s not at all my bag, but I knew they had been looking for a while and was curious about why - it’s a job that probably pays many millions and has high status and you’ll have resources to build things. She said that they want someone who understands markets and is quantitative. Okay - not that many people really _understand_ markets, but we both know plenty of people who could do that job well who would jump at the chance. She said sorry - she meant they wanted someone who could understand markets and _program_.
I almost fell off my chair, because one thinks of that kind of job as a management job where the important things are internal and customer relationships and you don’t have so much time to actually do direct work. But if you look at their website, you’ll see why the new focus. I started programming in 1983, and although I used that skill in finance to solve problems on the side in my spare time (programming really can be like a superpower when your alternative to doing it yourself is that it’s impossible to get what you want done at all), I never played it up, because there is this lingering image of programming and people didn’t associate the qualities needed to be a good programmer with those needed to make money in markets.
几年前，我接到一位猎头的电话，希望我能填补贝莱德（一家非常大的资产管理公司）固定收益投资组合管理主管的职位空缺。这完全不是我的囊中之物，但我知道他们已经找了一段时间了，我很好奇为什么——这是一份可能薪水数百万、地位高、有资源建造东西的工作。她说，他们想要的是懂市场、能量化的人。好吧，真正了解市场的人并不多，但我们都知道很多人可以做好这份工作，他们会抓住这个机会。她说对不起——她的意思是他们需要一个懂市场和程序的人。
我差点从椅子上摔下来，因为人们认为这种工作是一种管理工作，重要的事情是内部和客户关系，你没有那么多时间实际做具体的工作。但如果你看看他们的网站，你就会明白为什么会有新的关注点。我从1983年开始编程，虽然我在业余时间用金融方面的技能来解决问题(编程真的可以像一种超能力，当你不自己动手的时候，你根本不可能得到你想要的)，我从来没有夸大它，因为编程的印象挥之不去，人们没有把成为一名优秀程序员所需的素质与在市场上赚钱所需的素质联系起来。
And I personally have benefited in the past years from a moment of recognition I had at my then startup fund that technology was quite critical, and that whilst comparative advantage and the division of labour are excellent principles they do not always translate simply into the operations of an investment firm because of the nature of tacit knowledge (see Hayek and Polanyi) and the creative process itself.
So I speak about finance, because that’s what I know well, and because I am backing my view with my own allocation of resources and time.
But I think more generally there’s an insight there that may be helpful to some people.
I think it is true that you slow down a bit with age. Fluid intelligence declines - slowly initially, and it’s precipitous later; but crystallized intelligence (‘experience’) means that one can still be productive - maybe very much more productive than one once was, but perhaps one will need to change the way one works. Some things are definitely a young man or woman’s game; on the other hand some other things go much better with experience.
To a certain extent, it’s true that it’s a matter of attitude. One can still learn things with age provided one is able to re-experience the unaccustomed process of accurately feeling temporarily incompetent. (In many other professional fields you can kind of get to the top of your profession and milk it for quite a while - not so in programming). I haven’t felt as repeatedly stupid as I have in the past 2.5 years when learning first python,after not doing so much programming before that. I’m 43, by the way. But maybe you have a bit more fear, and a bit less enthusiasm about shiny new things - and probably this becomes more noticeable in another couple of decades.
在过去的几年里，我个人受益于我在当时的创业基金中认识到技术是非常关键的，虽然比较优势和分工是很好的原则，但由于隐性知识的本质（见Hayek和Polanyi）和创造性过程本身，它们并不总是简单地转化为投资公司的运营能力。
我之所以讲金融，因为这是我所熟知的，因为我用我自己的资源和时间来支持我的观点。
但我认为，更普遍地说，这里有一种见解，可能对某些人有所帮助。
我认为随着年龄的增长，你确实会放慢脚步。流动智力下降——最初缓慢，后来急剧下降；但是，但固定智力(“经验”)意味着一个人仍然可以富有成效——也许比以前更有生产力，但也许需要改变工作方式。有些事情绝对是年轻人的游戏；另一方面，在做有些事情时，越有经验越轻松。
在某种程度上，这确实是一个态度问题。随着年龄的增长，你仍然可以学到东西，只要你能够重新体验这个不习惯的过程，准确地感觉到自身暂时的无能。（在许多其他专业领域，你可以达到你专业的顶峰，并在相当长的一段时间内利用它，而在编程领域则不然）。在过去的2.5年里，当第一次学习python时，在那之前没有做太多编程工作，我再也没有像过去那样觉得自己是愚蠢的人了。顺便说一下，我43岁了，但也许你对闪亮的新事物有更多的恐惧，而没有那么多的热情—也许再过几十年，这一点会变得更加明显。
So I speak about finance, because that’s what I know well, and because I am backing my view with my own allocation of resources and time.
But I think more generally there’s an insight there that may be helpful to some people.
I think it is true that you slow down a bit with age. Fluid intelligence declines - slowly initially, and it’s precipitous later; but crystallized intelligence (‘experience’) means that one can still be productive - maybe very much more productive than one once was, but perhaps one will need to change the way one works. Some things are definitely a young man or woman’s game; on the other hand some other things go much better with experience.
To a certain extent, it’s true that it’s a matter of attitude. One can still learn things with age provided one is able to re-experience the unaccustomed process of accurately feeling temporarily incompetent. (In many other professional fields you can kind of get to the top of your profession and milk it for quite a while - not so in programming). I haven’t felt as repeatedly stupid as I have in the past 2.5 years when learning first python,after not doing so much programming before that. I’m 43, by the way. But maybe you have a bit more fear, and a bit less enthusiasm about shiny new things - and probably this becomes more noticeable in another couple of decades.
在过去的几年里，我个人受益于我在当时的创业基金中认识到技术是非常关键的，虽然比较优势和分工是很好的原则，但由于隐性知识的本质（见Hayek和Polanyi）和创造性过程本身，它们并不总是简单地转化为投资公司的运营能力。
我之所以讲金融，因为这是我所熟知的，因为我用我自己的资源和时间来支持我的观点。
但我认为，更普遍地说，这里有一种见解，可能对某些人有所帮助。
我认为随着年龄的增长，你确实会放慢脚步。流动智力下降——最初缓慢，后来急剧下降；但是，但固定智力(“经验”)意味着一个人仍然可以富有成效——也许比以前更有生产力，但也许需要改变工作方式。有些事情绝对是年轻人的游戏；另一方面，在做有些事情时，越有经验越轻松。
在某种程度上，这确实是一个态度问题。随着年龄的增长，你仍然可以学到东西，只要你能够重新体验这个不习惯的过程，准确地感觉到自身暂时的无能。（在许多其他专业领域，你可以达到你专业的顶峰，并在相当长的一段时间内利用它，而在编程领域则不然）。在过去的2.5年里，当第一次学习python时，在那之前没有做太多编程工作，我再也没有像过去那样觉得自己是愚蠢的人了。顺便说一下，我43岁了，但也许你对闪亮的新事物有更多的恐惧，而没有那么多的热情—也许再过几十年，这一点会变得更加明显。
My real point is that top notch programmers don’t grow on trees, but what’s most scarce today, and especially valuable is people who are technical _and_ understand the business. If you’re a technical guy and the requirements is just a list of things with numbers on them, it’s very hard to develop a feeling for what users really want and need, and the proper tradeoffs to make. To a certain extent then people build in flexibility and extensibility out of what is to them a justified sense of paranoia - because it seems very hard to anticipate what the business will need, since their needs don’t exist in you as a living thing, but arrive like incoming missiles. Certainly what they say they wanted and what it turns out they really do need are not always the same thing.
And on the other hand the business itself doesn’t really typically understand technology - what new possibilities it has created or will create in a couple of years given present trends; how it will change their own business, and that of their customers and competitors. And perhaps that’s part of the reason for the faddishness that enterprise technology has occasionally been prone to. People are looking for an answer, and prey for those who sell them the promise of one.
我真正想说的是，顶尖程序员不是多得俯拾皆是，但如今最稀缺、尤其是懂技术、懂业务的人最具价值。如果你是一个技术人员，而需求只是一列有数字的东西，你很难了解用户真正想要和需要什么，并做出适当的权衡。在某种程度上，人们出于一种合理的偏执狂意识而构建灵活性和可扩展性——因为似乎很难预测业务将需要什么，因为他们的需求在你的身体里并不存在，而是像飞来的导弹一样到达。当然，他们说他们想要的和他们实际需要的并不总是同一件事。
另一方面，企业本身通常并不真正了解技术——根据目前的趋势，它已经创造或将在几年内创造什么新的可能性；它将如何改变他们自己的业务，以及他们的客户和竞争对手的业务。也许这就是企业技术偶尔会流行起来的部分原因。人们都在寻找答案，为那些向他们兜售承诺的人祈祷吧。
And on the other hand the business itself doesn’t really typically understand technology - what new possibilities it has created or will create in a couple of years given present trends; how it will change their own business, and that of their customers and competitors. And perhaps that’s part of the reason for the faddishness that enterprise technology has occasionally been prone to. People are looking for an answer, and prey for those who sell them the promise of one.
我真正想说的是，顶尖程序员不是多得俯拾皆是，但如今最稀缺、尤其是懂技术、懂业务的人最具价值。如果你是一个技术人员，而需求只是一列有数字的东西，你很难了解用户真正想要和需要什么，并做出适当的权衡。在某种程度上，人们出于一种合理的偏执狂意识而构建灵活性和可扩展性——因为似乎很难预测业务将需要什么，因为他们的需求在你的身体里并不存在，而是像飞来的导弹一样到达。当然，他们说他们想要的和他们实际需要的并不总是同一件事。
另一方面，企业本身通常并不真正了解技术——根据目前的趋势，它已经创造或将在几年内创造什么新的可能性；它将如何改变他们自己的业务，以及他们的客户和竞争对手的业务。也许这就是企业技术偶尔会流行起来的部分原因。人们都在寻找答案，为那些向他们兜售承诺的人祈祷吧。
A friend of mine from early in my career was recently appointed Treasurer of a decent-sized private bank. He spent his first few months writing a cash management system in VBA. McKinsey would have told him he was insane - just look at the opportunity cost of programmers, and look at your own opportunity cost: if it takes 20 guys to write the same thing you can do yourself, it still makes no sense to do it.
But McKinsey would have been wrong, and he was right, because by doing so he understood the nature of the problem, how the systems of the firm worked, and what was required when they bought a proper enterprise product, spending a few million on it.
Research from Boston Consulting Group says that the implications of machine learning are that people and teams with multiple skills will become quite valuable.
So in short - take advantage of years till then to understand some part of the business very well, and try to create or move to a role where you can combine business understanding with technology understanding. That might not be possible in a big firm that moves slowly, but smaller firms have the luxury of not being able always to hire one person for each job, which creates also an opportunity.
我职业生涯早期的一个朋友最近被任命为一家规模可观的私人银行的财务主管。他在最初的几个月里用VBA编写了一个现金管理系统。麦肯锡会告诉他，他疯了——看看程序员的机会成本，再看看你自己的机会成本:如果你自己能做的事情需要20个人来写，那还是没有意义。
但麦肯锡可能是错的，他是对的，因为通过这样做，他了解了问题的本质，公司的系统是如何工作的，以及当他们花几百万购买一个合适的企业产品时需要什么。
波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）的研究表明，机器学习的意义在于，拥有多种技能的人员和团队将变得非常有价值。
因此，简而言之，利用几年的时间充分了解业务的某些部分，并尝试创造或转移到一个可以将业务理解与技术理解结合起来的职位。这对于一个行动缓慢的大公司来说可能是不可能的，但小公司也不可能为每个工作内容专门雇用一个人，这也创造了一个机会。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
But McKinsey would have been wrong, and he was right, because by doing so he understood the nature of the problem, how the systems of the firm worked, and what was required when they bought a proper enterprise product, spending a few million on it.
Research from Boston Consulting Group says that the implications of machine learning are that people and teams with multiple skills will become quite valuable.
So in short - take advantage of years till then to understand some part of the business very well, and try to create or move to a role where you can combine business understanding with technology understanding. That might not be possible in a big firm that moves slowly, but smaller firms have the luxury of not being able always to hire one person for each job, which creates also an opportunity.
我职业生涯早期的一个朋友最近被任命为一家规模可观的私人银行的财务主管。他在最初的几个月里用VBA编写了一个现金管理系统。麦肯锡会告诉他，他疯了——看看程序员的机会成本，再看看你自己的机会成本:如果你自己能做的事情需要20个人来写，那还是没有意义。
但麦肯锡可能是错的，他是对的，因为通过这样做，他了解了问题的本质，公司的系统是如何工作的，以及当他们花几百万购买一个合适的企业产品时需要什么。
波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）的研究表明，机器学习的意义在于，拥有多种技能的人员和团队将变得非常有价值。
因此，简而言之，利用几年的时间充分了解业务的某些部分，并尝试创造或转移到一个可以将业务理解与技术理解结合起来的职位。这对于一个行动缓慢的大公司来说可能是不可能的，但小公司也不可能为每个工作内容专门雇用一个人，这也创造了一个机会。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Tom Psillas
I was doing good until age 60.
What has happened is over 1 million H1B Visa programmers from India replaced over 500,000 programmer US citizens over the last 5 years, just as companies were cutting back a bit. This caused wages to drop like a rocket, just as many software developers were reaching retirement age, but not yet ready to retire.
Also offshore software development has caused a massive decline in the need for US onshore programming jobs.
But, this is happening in many job categories, as well.
Just like eBay and Amazon disrupted retail, most high paying US jobs have been decimated by 30% or more.
The IT field, in general, is very stressful. Companies want more for less, just like consumers and eventually we get priced out of the market.
我一直干得很好，直到60岁。
过去5年里，超过100万持H1B签证的印度程序员取代了超过50万的美国程序员，而与此同时，公司也在削减开支。这导致工资像火箭一样下降，而许多软件开发人员已经到了退休年龄，但还没有准备好退休。
此外，离岸软件开发导致对美国本土编程工作的需求大幅下降。
但是，这也发生在许多工作类别中。
就像eBay和亚马逊颠覆了零售业一样，美国大多数高薪工作岗位都被削减了30%或更多。
一般来说，IT领域压力很大。像消费者一样，公司希望以更少的成本获得更多的利润，最终我们被排挤出市场。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I was doing good until age 60.
What has happened is over 1 million H1B Visa programmers from India replaced over 500,000 programmer US citizens over the last 5 years, just as companies were cutting back a bit. This caused wages to drop like a rocket, just as many software developers were reaching retirement age, but not yet ready to retire.
Also offshore software development has caused a massive decline in the need for US onshore programming jobs.
But, this is happening in many job categories, as well.
Just like eBay and Amazon disrupted retail, most high paying US jobs have been decimated by 30% or more.
The IT field, in general, is very stressful. Companies want more for less, just like consumers and eventually we get priced out of the market.
我一直干得很好，直到60岁。
过去5年里，超过100万持H1B签证的印度程序员取代了超过50万的美国程序员，而与此同时，公司也在削减开支。这导致工资像火箭一样下降，而许多软件开发人员已经到了退休年龄，但还没有准备好退休。
此外，离岸软件开发导致对美国本土编程工作的需求大幅下降。
但是，这也发生在许多工作类别中。
就像eBay和亚马逊颠覆了零售业一样，美国大多数高薪工作岗位都被削减了30%或更多。
一般来说，IT领域压力很大。像消费者一样，公司希望以更少的成本获得更多的利润，最终我们被排挤出市场。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Over 60% of my former co-workers have left the field and moved into self-employment, sales, teaching, and other careers.
Of course, eventually, our government will realize that you need an strong consumer base for the US economy to survive and protectionism will return.
We may have to weather a bad recession or depression for 10 years, but our economy will eventually rebound again in 20 years fro now. Too late for me, though.
My suggestion is to learn to sell. That skill will always keep you gainfully employed. Learn new skills or pick areas in IT that fewer competitors are in. You can also try to find IT jobs that require security clearance, like in Washington, DC.
I am the CEO of Wet Crow Internet, www.wetcrow.com, which came as a result of the difficulty in staying gainfully employed in IT.
I wish you the best of success.
我以前的同事中有六成以上已经离开了这个领域，进行自主创业,、销售、教学和其他职业。
当然，我国政府最终将认识到，美国经济需要一个强大的消费基础才能生存，保护主义才会卷土重来。
我们可能要经受10年严重的经济衰退或萧条，但我们的经济最终将在20年后再次反弹，不过对我来说太晚了。
我的建议是学会销售，这项技能会让你一直有收入。学习新技能，或者选择竞争对手较少的IT领域。你也可以尝试找一些需要安全许可的IT工作，比如在华盛顿特区。
我是Wet Crow Internet 的首席执行官，这是由于在IT行业很难保持高薪工作的结果。
祝你一切顺利。
Of course, eventually, our government will realize that you need an strong consumer base for the US economy to survive and protectionism will return.
We may have to weather a bad recession or depression for 10 years, but our economy will eventually rebound again in 20 years fro now. Too late for me, though.
My suggestion is to learn to sell. That skill will always keep you gainfully employed. Learn new skills or pick areas in IT that fewer competitors are in. You can also try to find IT jobs that require security clearance, like in Washington, DC.
I am the CEO of Wet Crow Internet, www.wetcrow.com, which came as a result of the difficulty in staying gainfully employed in IT.
I wish you the best of success.
我以前的同事中有六成以上已经离开了这个领域，进行自主创业,、销售、教学和其他职业。
当然，我国政府最终将认识到，美国经济需要一个强大的消费基础才能生存，保护主义才会卷土重来。
我们可能要经受10年严重的经济衰退或萧条，但我们的经济最终将在20年后再次反弹，不过对我来说太晚了。
我的建议是学会销售，这项技能会让你一直有收入。学习新技能，或者选择竞争对手较少的IT领域。你也可以尝试找一些需要安全许可的IT工作，比如在华盛顿特区。
我是Wet Crow Internet 的首席执行官，这是由于在IT行业很难保持高薪工作的结果。
祝你一切顺利。
Imtiaz Mohammad
In 1870, almost 50 percent of the U.S. population was employed in agriculture. As of 2008, less than 2 percent of the population is directly employed in agriculture. Agriculture in the United States - Wikipedia
Industrialization, westernization or becoming an “advanced country” is not entirely fun. It also brings worries like high debt, maintaining credit score, insurance, disintegrating families, health and stress. That is the cost of high lifestyle.
Anyway, the whole point of technology is to do things faster, cheaper and better than humans. With computers and advanced problem solving techniques, jobs will be eliminated much faster than people imagine.
How do you handle the change and stress?
Know that comfort zone is a dead-end.
Acknowledge the reality of jobs. People living in denial and fantasies will be the worst affected.
Understand that there will always be “problems” on this planet no matter what.
List down the problems you are interested in solving (IT and/or non-IT). Yes, you won’t go far without having a passion to solve problems (of any domain). It is a crime to be an engineer and not be passionate about problem solving.
Re/Up-skill to face the new set of challenges with rigor. For example, people are gaga about Machine Learning.
1870年，几乎50%的美国人口从事农业。截至2008年，只有不到2%的人口直接从事农业。维基百科上搜索美国农业可以得到相关信息。
工业化、西化或成为“先进国家”并不完全有趣。它还带来了诸如高债务、维持信用评分、保险、家庭解体、健康和压力等担忧。这就是高级生活方式的代价。
总之，技术的全部意义就是比人类做事情更快、更便宜、更好。有了计算机和先进的问题解决技术，工作岗位的消失速度将比人们想象的要快得多。
你如何应对这种变化和压力?
要知道呆在舒适区是没有啥出路的。
承认就业的现实，生活在否认和幻想中的人将受到最严重的影响。
要明白，无论如何，这个星球上总会有“问题”。
列出你有兴趣解决的问题(IT和/或非IT)。是的，如果没有解决(任何领域)问题的热情，你不会走得很远。作为一名工程师，对解决问题没有热情是一种犯罪。
升级技能，严格面对新的挑战。例如，如今人们痴迷于机器学习。
In 1870, almost 50 percent of the U.S. population was employed in agriculture. As of 2008, less than 2 percent of the population is directly employed in agriculture. Agriculture in the United States - Wikipedia
Industrialization, westernization or becoming an “advanced country” is not entirely fun. It also brings worries like high debt, maintaining credit score, insurance, disintegrating families, health and stress. That is the cost of high lifestyle.
Anyway, the whole point of technology is to do things faster, cheaper and better than humans. With computers and advanced problem solving techniques, jobs will be eliminated much faster than people imagine.
How do you handle the change and stress?
Know that comfort zone is a dead-end.
Acknowledge the reality of jobs. People living in denial and fantasies will be the worst affected.
Understand that there will always be “problems” on this planet no matter what.
List down the problems you are interested in solving (IT and/or non-IT). Yes, you won’t go far without having a passion to solve problems (of any domain). It is a crime to be an engineer and not be passionate about problem solving.
Re/Up-skill to face the new set of challenges with rigor. For example, people are gaga about Machine Learning.
1870年，几乎50%的美国人口从事农业。截至2008年，只有不到2%的人口直接从事农业。维基百科上搜索美国农业可以得到相关信息。
工业化、西化或成为“先进国家”并不完全有趣。它还带来了诸如高债务、维持信用评分、保险、家庭解体、健康和压力等担忧。这就是高级生活方式的代价。
总之，技术的全部意义就是比人类做事情更快、更便宜、更好。有了计算机和先进的问题解决技术，工作岗位的消失速度将比人们想象的要快得多。
你如何应对这种变化和压力?
要知道呆在舒适区是没有啥出路的。
承认就业的现实，生活在否认和幻想中的人将受到最严重的影响。
要明白，无论如何，这个星球上总会有“问题”。
列出你有兴趣解决的问题(IT和/或非IT)。是的，如果没有解决(任何领域)问题的热情，你不会走得很远。作为一名工程师，对解决问题没有热情是一种犯罪。
升级技能，严格面对新的挑战。例如，如今人们痴迷于机器学习。
Aravind Akshan
Once I was in a big project converting COBOL to Java at the back-end . There were 450 forms and we needed an expert to understand certain COBOL programs and translate for rest of the “new” programmers. It was hard to find a person.
That is when our company came across a 70 year old COBOL programmer, who was very good in understanding and translating. Usually, other programmers were paid < $100 per hour while, this person was paid $150 per hour. This person was super good at what he does and fun to work with. He used to take nap in between, but when working, really great.
Again, I met another person who is 65, doing Java programming. Amazing person who is 1000 times better in programming than many new programmers .
It is not a dead-end job after 35–40. But again, to the newgen, anything above 35 is dead :)
我曾经参与过一个大项目，在后端将面向商业的通用语言（COBOL ）转换为Java语言。有450个表单，我们需要一位专家来理解某些COBOL 程序，并为其他“新”程序员翻译，很难找到这样一个人。
就在那时，我们公司遇到了一位70岁的COBOL程序员，他非常擅长理解和翻译。通常，其他程序员的工资低于每小时100美元，而此人的工资为每小时150美元。这个人非常擅长他的工作，与他共事也很有趣。他过去常常在休息时间小睡一会儿，但工作时的状态真的很棒。
再次，我遇到了另一位65岁的人，他在做Java编程。也是一个了不起的人，他的编程能力是许多新程序员的1000倍。
在35-40岁之后，这并不是一个没有前途的工作。但对下一代来说，35岁以上的人确实就没有啥前途。
Once I was in a big project converting COBOL to Java at the back-end . There were 450 forms and we needed an expert to understand certain COBOL programs and translate for rest of the “new” programmers. It was hard to find a person.
That is when our company came across a 70 year old COBOL programmer, who was very good in understanding and translating. Usually, other programmers were paid < $100 per hour while, this person was paid $150 per hour. This person was super good at what he does and fun to work with. He used to take nap in between, but when working, really great.
Again, I met another person who is 65, doing Java programming. Amazing person who is 1000 times better in programming than many new programmers .
It is not a dead-end job after 35–40. But again, to the newgen, anything above 35 is dead :)
我曾经参与过一个大项目，在后端将面向商业的通用语言（COBOL ）转换为Java语言。有450个表单，我们需要一位专家来理解某些COBOL 程序，并为其他“新”程序员翻译，很难找到这样一个人。
就在那时，我们公司遇到了一位70岁的COBOL程序员，他非常擅长理解和翻译。通常，其他程序员的工资低于每小时100美元，而此人的工资为每小时150美元。这个人非常擅长他的工作，与他共事也很有趣。他过去常常在休息时间小睡一会儿，但工作时的状态真的很棒。
再次，我遇到了另一位65岁的人，他在做Java编程。也是一个了不起的人，他的编程能力是许多新程序员的1000倍。
在35-40岁之后，这并不是一个没有前途的工作。但对下一代来说，35岁以上的人确实就没有啥前途。
Pepito Fernandez
If you answer YES to this question, you are a complete loser (and deserve to be unemployed).
Most “young” developers don’t have the academic knowledge that mid 30/40s do. Most of them come from “bootcamps” where they teach you how to plumb libraries together.
Knowledge is ageless. Now, when it comes to software development, if you are one of those lazy mid-age developers that “don’t feel like” learning the new stuff, then you are done. Pack and go.
I started in the early 90s. I come from the times where things like “bit calculation” was important because of the hardware limitations. Today, I write anything from Microservices to Mobile Apps. I stay on top of the wave. I read a book or two every month.
It would’ve been easier for me to say… “PHP for Life” and vegetate for decades until I can retire, and isolate myself from what technology is all about.
如果你对这个问题的回答是肯定的，那么你就是一个彻底的失败者（理应失业）。
大多数“年轻”开发人员没有30/40岁左右的人的学术知识。他们大多来自“训练营”，在那里他们教你如何在图书馆搜寻信息。
知识是永恒的。现在，当谈到软件开发时，如果你是那些懒惰的中年开发人员之一，“不想”学习新东西，那么你就完了，打包滚蛋吧。
我是在90年代初开始的，我所处的时代，由于硬件的限制，“Bit计算器”之类的东西很重要。如今，从微服务到移动应用，我什么都写。我一直呆在浪尖上，我每个月读一两本书。
对我来说，说“PHP for Life”（终生从事服务器端编程语言工作）会更容易一些，然后在这里生长几十年，直到我可以退休，让我自己远离技术的一切。
If you answer YES to this question, you are a complete loser (and deserve to be unemployed).
Most “young” developers don’t have the academic knowledge that mid 30/40s do. Most of them come from “bootcamps” where they teach you how to plumb libraries together.
Knowledge is ageless. Now, when it comes to software development, if you are one of those lazy mid-age developers that “don’t feel like” learning the new stuff, then you are done. Pack and go.
I started in the early 90s. I come from the times where things like “bit calculation” was important because of the hardware limitations. Today, I write anything from Microservices to Mobile Apps. I stay on top of the wave. I read a book or two every month.
It would’ve been easier for me to say… “PHP for Life” and vegetate for decades until I can retire, and isolate myself from what technology is all about.
如果你对这个问题的回答是肯定的，那么你就是一个彻底的失败者（理应失业）。
大多数“年轻”开发人员没有30/40岁左右的人的学术知识。他们大多来自“训练营”，在那里他们教你如何在图书馆搜寻信息。
知识是永恒的。现在，当谈到软件开发时，如果你是那些懒惰的中年开发人员之一，“不想”学习新东西，那么你就完了，打包滚蛋吧。
我是在90年代初开始的，我所处的时代，由于硬件的限制，“Bit计算器”之类的东西很重要。如今，从微服务到移动应用，我什么都写。我一直呆在浪尖上，我每个月读一两本书。
对我来说，说“PHP for Life”（终生从事服务器端编程语言工作）会更容易一些，然后在这里生长几十年，直到我可以退休，让我自己远离技术的一切。
John Brothers
I'll be 46 this year, and I haven't seen this yet. Perhaps when I'm 50? Perhaps. But at the moment, I don't spend a lot of time worrying about it. I like solving problems and (possibly more importantly) I like finding new ways to solve problems. Because of that, I seem to have skills that are always in demand.
1) I stay relatively current - I recently wrote a project in Node.JS, I've worked with Hadoop, written and published Android apps, worked with NoSQL, written code in Go and familiarized myself with various features of JQuery and Bootstrap.
2) While Java wasn't the language I used straight out of college, I picked it up fairly soon after college, and I've kept at it. And at this point, having 15+ years of java experience is still considered quite valuable for consulting purposes. I've kept reasonably up to date with Java as well - I've picked up Spring, JMS, REST, JSON and JPA and other related technologies as I go.
3) I keep reasonably up to date with the rest of the ecosystem - I've used IntelliJ and Eclipse and Sublime and Emacs and Vi over the years, and I'm comfortable with all of them for solving different problems. I started with CVS, learned Subversion and more recently worked with git. I've worked with AWS as well. I've written lots of automated unit tests (test-first development is one of my favorite intellectual challenges when I'm architecting and building a system)
我今年46岁了，我还没看到这一幕。也许当我50岁的时候会见到吧？但目前，我不会花太多时间去担心它。我喜欢解决问题，而且（可能更重要的是）我喜欢找到解决问题的新方法。正因为如此，我似乎总是很抢手。
1、我紧跟潮流——最近我用Node.js写了一个项目。我使用过Hadoop，编写并发布过Android应用程序，使用NoSQL，用Go编写代码，熟悉JQuery和Bootstrap的各种特性。
2、而Java并不是我一毕业就使用的语言，但我在大学毕业后不久就学会了，而且我一直在学习。在这一点上，拥有15年以上的java经验对咨询来说仍然被认为是非常有价值。我也对Java持续学习—我已经掌握了Spring、JMS、REST、JSON和JPA以及其他相关技术。
3、我合理地与生态系统的其他部分保持同步-多年来我使用了IntelliJ、Eclipse、Sublime、Emacs和Vi，我对它们都很满意，可以解决不同的问题。我从CVS开始，学习了Subversion，最近又学习了git，AWS方面我也用过。我写了很多自动化单元测试(测试优先的开发是我在架构和构建系统时最喜欢的智力挑战之一)。
I'll be 46 this year, and I haven't seen this yet. Perhaps when I'm 50? Perhaps. But at the moment, I don't spend a lot of time worrying about it. I like solving problems and (possibly more importantly) I like finding new ways to solve problems. Because of that, I seem to have skills that are always in demand.
1) I stay relatively current - I recently wrote a project in Node.JS, I've worked with Hadoop, written and published Android apps, worked with NoSQL, written code in Go and familiarized myself with various features of JQuery and Bootstrap.
2) While Java wasn't the language I used straight out of college, I picked it up fairly soon after college, and I've kept at it. And at this point, having 15+ years of java experience is still considered quite valuable for consulting purposes. I've kept reasonably up to date with Java as well - I've picked up Spring, JMS, REST, JSON and JPA and other related technologies as I go.
3) I keep reasonably up to date with the rest of the ecosystem - I've used IntelliJ and Eclipse and Sublime and Emacs and Vi over the years, and I'm comfortable with all of them for solving different problems. I started with CVS, learned Subversion and more recently worked with git. I've worked with AWS as well. I've written lots of automated unit tests (test-first development is one of my favorite intellectual challenges when I'm architecting and building a system)
我今年46岁了，我还没看到这一幕。也许当我50岁的时候会见到吧？但目前，我不会花太多时间去担心它。我喜欢解决问题，而且（可能更重要的是）我喜欢找到解决问题的新方法。正因为如此，我似乎总是很抢手。
1、我紧跟潮流——最近我用Node.js写了一个项目。我使用过Hadoop，编写并发布过Android应用程序，使用NoSQL，用Go编写代码，熟悉JQuery和Bootstrap的各种特性。
2、而Java并不是我一毕业就使用的语言，但我在大学毕业后不久就学会了，而且我一直在学习。在这一点上，拥有15年以上的java经验对咨询来说仍然被认为是非常有价值。我也对Java持续学习—我已经掌握了Spring、JMS、REST、JSON和JPA以及其他相关技术。
3、我合理地与生态系统的其他部分保持同步-多年来我使用了IntelliJ、Eclipse、Sublime、Emacs和Vi，我对它们都很满意，可以解决不同的问题。我从CVS开始，学习了Subversion，最近又学习了git，AWS方面我也用过。我写了很多自动化单元测试(测试优先的开发是我在架构和构建系统时最喜欢的智力挑战之一)。
4) I'm not afraid to pick something up, learn it, and put it away - I've written web apps in Ruby on Rails and Grails, and solved business problems with apps written in Perl, PHP and Python. I've worked with SOAP and AOP. When someone asks me what the strengths and weaknesses of different technological approaches or platforms, I can usually give a well-thought-out answer.
5) I try to be a full-stack developer - I understand Unix well and regularly write shell scxts. I'm comfortable with deploying apps, servers and tools, both for development and production purposes. I know SQL and NoSQL and understand when each is better. I'm comfortable with TCP/IP - I know the basics of routing & DHCP and various types of proxies. I've built MVC apps, message-based apps and EJB and Spring services. I've worked with jaxcript and CSS on the front end. I'm not ever going to be an award-winning UX developer, but I can at least get the basics done.
I'm planning on working for another 21 years. I am hopeful that my expansive background, willingness to pick up new technologies and overall expertise with web-based development will continue to provide me with meaningful work for the next 2 decades. If we switch away from web-based development to building everything with D-wave servers, I may get left behind. If functional programming finally takes over, I may get left behind. But until then, I'm going to continue to be hopeful.
4、我不怕拿起东西，学会它，然后把它置于一边——我用Ruby on Rails和Grails编写过web应用程序，用Perl、PHP和Python编写的应用程序解决了业务问题。我用过SOAP和AOP。当有人问我不同技术方法或平台的优缺点时，我通常会给出一个深思熟虑的答案。
5、我试图成为一名全栈开发人员——我很了解Unix，并定期编写shell脚本。无论是出于开发还是生产目的，我对部署应用程序、服务器和工具感到满意。我了解SQL和NoSQL，并了解何时用哪种语言更好。我对TCP/IP很熟悉-我知道路由和动态主机配置协议以及各种代理的基础知识。我构建了MVC应用程序、基于消息的应用程序以及 JAVA 中的商业应用组件技术和Spring服务。我在前端使用了jaxcript和CSS。我永远不会成为一名屡获殊荣的用户体验开发人员，但我至少可以完成基本的工作。
我打算再工作21年。我希望我广阔的背景、学习新技术的意愿和基于网络开发的全面专业知识在未来20年将继续为我提供有意义的工作。如果我们从基于web的开发转向使用D-wave服务器构建一切，我可能算落后。如果函数式编程最终占主流，我可能会属于落后层次。但在那之前，我将继续满怀希望。
5) I try to be a full-stack developer - I understand Unix well and regularly write shell scxts. I'm comfortable with deploying apps, servers and tools, both for development and production purposes. I know SQL and NoSQL and understand when each is better. I'm comfortable with TCP/IP - I know the basics of routing & DHCP and various types of proxies. I've built MVC apps, message-based apps and EJB and Spring services. I've worked with jaxcript and CSS on the front end. I'm not ever going to be an award-winning UX developer, but I can at least get the basics done.
I'm planning on working for another 21 years. I am hopeful that my expansive background, willingness to pick up new technologies and overall expertise with web-based development will continue to provide me with meaningful work for the next 2 decades. If we switch away from web-based development to building everything with D-wave servers, I may get left behind. If functional programming finally takes over, I may get left behind. But until then, I'm going to continue to be hopeful.
4、我不怕拿起东西，学会它，然后把它置于一边——我用Ruby on Rails和Grails编写过web应用程序，用Perl、PHP和Python编写的应用程序解决了业务问题。我用过SOAP和AOP。当有人问我不同技术方法或平台的优缺点时，我通常会给出一个深思熟虑的答案。
5、我试图成为一名全栈开发人员——我很了解Unix，并定期编写shell脚本。无论是出于开发还是生产目的，我对部署应用程序、服务器和工具感到满意。我了解SQL和NoSQL，并了解何时用哪种语言更好。我对TCP/IP很熟悉-我知道路由和动态主机配置协议以及各种代理的基础知识。我构建了MVC应用程序、基于消息的应用程序以及 JAVA 中的商业应用组件技术和Spring服务。我在前端使用了jaxcript和CSS。我永远不会成为一名屡获殊荣的用户体验开发人员，但我至少可以完成基本的工作。
我打算再工作21年。我希望我广阔的背景、学习新技术的意愿和基于网络开发的全面专业知识在未来20年将继续为我提供有意义的工作。如果我们从基于web的开发转向使用D-wave服务器构建一切，我可能算落后。如果函数式编程最终占主流，我可能会属于落后层次。但在那之前，我将继续满怀希望。
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