高盛预测,2023年美国房地产低迷会进一步恶化
2022-09-02 一只小猪猪 6143
正文翻译
The U.S. housing market downturn will be worse in 2023, forecasts Goldman Sachs

高盛预测:2023年美国房地产低迷恐进一步加剧
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


BYLANCE LAMBERT
August 31, 2022 at 5:10 PM GMT+8
The U.S. entered into its first housing downturn of the post–Great Financial Crisis era. And the worst still awaits.

美国房地产首次进入后经济危机时代以来的下行区间,但更糟糕的事情还在后面。

On Tuesday, researchers at Goldman Sachs released a paper titled “The Housing Downturn: Further to Fall.” The investment bank now forecasts that activity in the U.S. housing market will end 2022 down across the board. The firm projects sharp declines this year in new home sales (22% drop), existing home sales (17% drop), and housing GDP (8.9% drop). For perspective, Russia’s souring economy is only expected to see its GDP fall 3% this year.

周二,高盛集团分析师发布了名为《房地产下行:看跌未来》的研究报告。投资银行预测,美国住房市场将在2022年底全面下滑。高盛预测美国今年新屋销售将下跌22%;现存房屋销售下降17%;住房GDP将下跌8.9%。对比来看,其预测俄罗斯经济也不过只会下滑3%。

And don’t expect relief in 2023. Goldman Sachs projects further declines next year in new home sales (another 8% drop), existing home sales (another 14% drop), and housing GDP (another 9.2% drop).

高盛还表示,不要期待2023年情况会有所好转。预测2023年新屋销售将在基础上继续下降八个百分点,现存房屋销售下降14%,住房GDP下降9.2%。


This housing downturn, of course, is a direct result of the Federal Reserve's inflation fight. Not long after the central bank began applying upward pressure this spring on mortgage rates, the housing market slipped into slowdown mode. Home shoppers across the country put their home search on pause. That housing market downturn, the Fed hopes, will slow down the rest of the economy and, in theory, help to rein in runaway inflation.

本轮住房市场下行,是美联储抗击通胀的直接结果。就在美联储对住房抵押贷款施加上行压力后不久,房屋市场就开始调入下行模式。全美购房者都不再寻找房源。美联储希望住房市场下行会为整体经济降温,以此有助于抗击“无法控制的通胀”。

"It [housing] is not the target, but it [housing] is essentially the target," Bill McBride, author of the economics blog Calculated Risk, told Fortune last month.

经济博客“风险计算的作者比尔·麦克布莱德称,就算住房不是美联储的针对目标,但政策本质逃不开房地产市场。

There's another driving force behind the housing downturn: household formation. The pandemic—and the WFH revolution it set off—saw a historic spike in household formation. Can you blame Gen Zers for not wanting to work from home alongside their roommate? But that phenomenon is over now, according to Goldman Sachs.

除美联储政策外,还有一个驱动房地产下行的因素,那就是家庭组成形式有所变化。疫情引发了”卫生革命,导致家庭组成达到历史高峰。你无法指责年轻人远程工作时不想有室友的心理,但高盛表示,但现在这种现象已经结束了。

Some of the recent weakness appears to reflect the reversal of pandemic-related preference shifts that are proving more fleeting than we’d expected. We previously noted that the virus shock accelerated household formation and boosted demand for second homes... [but] those tailwinds have already largely faded, as regions that experienced outsized increases in home sales and building permits in 2020 and 2021 are now experiencing disproportionate declines this year," write Goldman Sachs researchers.

高盛在报告中称:最近房屋市场疲软放映了疫情相关偏好的反转,这一情形比我们预估的要快。我们此前预估,病毒冲击会加速人们对第二套房的需求,加快家庭组建,但是这些利好很大程度上已经消失。那些2020到2021年间,房屋销售和建造超出规模的地区,现在2022年正在经历不成比例的下跌。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


What does this housing downturn mean for home prices? The honest answer: It's hard to say.

但房地产下行会对房间有什么影响呢?这难以预测。

评论翻译
部分推特网友表示“其所在地区的房价并无变化?
对此,你怎么看?你认为房价在2023年会下跌吗?你会相信高盛的预测,调整投资组合吗?


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