东南亚国家哪些有前途？哪些没有前途？
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Yap You Wai, former Chairman of Risk Mgmt Committee (2006-2017)，Lived in Ho Chi Minh City2008–2011
Which countries in SEA have the darkest future?
Guess the term, “darkest” or “dark” is a tad gloomy and might not be so suitably used in our forecast or speculation?
[1] There’s this tiny country called Timor Leste which was released from the grasp of Indonesia not so long ago? The country has a small oil exploration but apart from that nothing much else? The half island has some pristine beaches but they need investment to be developed into resorts and the Auth’s solid plan to promote tourism? At present, the education level of the pop. is rather low and really in need of an upgrade. Highly challenging……
我想“最黑暗”或“黑暗”这个词有点悲观，可能不太适合用于我们的预测或猜测？
[1] 有一个叫东帝汶的小国，不久前从印度尼西亚的控制下独立出来。这个国家只有少量的石油储量，但除此之外就没有别的了。这个半岛有一些原始的海滩，但它们需要投资才能发展成度假胜地。目前，该国大众的教育水平很低，确实需要提升，但这极具挑战性……
Which countries in SEA have the darkest future?
Guess the term, “darkest” or “dark” is a tad gloomy and might not be so suitably used in our forecast or speculation?
[1] There’s this tiny country called Timor Leste which was released from the grasp of Indonesia not so long ago? The country has a small oil exploration but apart from that nothing much else? The half island has some pristine beaches but they need investment to be developed into resorts and the Auth’s solid plan to promote tourism? At present, the education level of the pop. is rather low and really in need of an upgrade. Highly challenging……
我想“最黑暗”或“黑暗”这个词有点悲观，可能不太适合用于我们的预测或猜测？
[1] 有一个叫东帝汶的小国，不久前从印度尼西亚的控制下独立出来。这个国家只有少量的石油储量，但除此之外就没有别的了。这个半岛有一些原始的海滩，但它们需要投资才能发展成度假胜地。目前，该国大众的教育水平很低，确实需要提升，但这极具挑战性……
[2] There’s another smallish country located btwn Sabah & Sarawak, both in the Federation of M’sia, in the north of Borneo known as Brunei? It has been ruled by the only Sultan since gaining independence from the Brits and its development was previously financed by oil revenue. But as oil price is on the decline and the demand for oil is less certain going fwd, Brunei’s future isn’t very bright? Also, the Sultan is growing old and the successor might not be able to manage the Admin as well?
[2] 有另一个位于在婆罗洲北部马来西亚联邦的沙巴和沙捞越之间的小国叫做文莱，自从脱离英国独立以来，它一直由唯一的苏丹统治。它的发展以前是靠石油收入，但随着油价的下跌和对石油的需求越来越不确定，文莱的未来并不光明。而且，苏丹正在变老，继任者可能也无法管理整个国家。
[2] 有另一个位于在婆罗洲北部马来西亚联邦的沙巴和沙捞越之间的小国叫做文莱，自从脱离英国独立以来，它一直由唯一的苏丹统治。它的发展以前是靠石油收入，但随着油价的下跌和对石油的需求越来越不确定，文莱的未来并不光明。而且，苏丹正在变老，继任者可能也无法管理整个国家。
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Mohammad Dayyan
I am surprised only one person has mentioned this nation Brunei.
The people of Brunei enjoy a lot free healthcare and no income tax, but that soon maybe over. The Bruneian economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas.
But when that finishes they will lose all that. The countries gdp growth rate has been inconsistent.
我很惊讶只有一个人提到文莱这个国家。
文莱人民享受着很多免费的医疗保健，没有所得税，但这可能很快就会结束，因为文莱的经济严重依赖石油和天然气。
但当这一切结束时，他们将失去一切，因为这个国家的GDP增长率一直都不稳定。
Mohammad Dayyan
I am surprised only one person has mentioned this nation Brunei.
The people of Brunei enjoy a lot free healthcare and no income tax, but that soon maybe over. The Bruneian economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas.
But when that finishes they will lose all that. The countries gdp growth rate has been inconsistent.
我很惊讶只有一个人提到文莱这个国家。
文莱人民享受着很多免费的医疗保健，没有所得税，但这可能很快就会结束，因为文莱的经济严重依赖石油和天然气。
但当这一切结束时，他们将失去一切，因为这个国家的GDP增长率一直都不稳定。
Also they have the highest unemployment in ASEAN nations (sorry it is Blury)
They better start diversification or they will become a poverty stricken nation
而且他们的失业率在东盟国家中是最高
他们最好开始多样化，否则他们将成为一个贫穷的国家。
They better start diversification or they will become a poverty stricken nation
而且他们的失业率在东盟国家中是最高
他们最好开始多样化，否则他们将成为一个贫穷的国家。
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Anonymous
In the 169 years from its founding on July 4, 1776, to the end of World War II, the United States was at war 93% of the time. On November 1, 1955, to April 30, 1975, the United States spent nearly 600,000 troops and 150 billion dollars to fight a bitter war in Vietnam for 20 years, but finally lost. The Vietnam War was undoubtedly the biggest Waterloo that the United States had encountered.
从1776年7月4日建国到第二次世界大战结束的169年间，美国93%的时间处于战争状态。从1955年11月1日至1975年4月30日，美国花费近60万兵力和1500亿美元，在越南打了20年苦战，但最终还是输了。越南战争无疑是美国遭遇的最大的滑铁卢。
Anonymous
In the 169 years from its founding on July 4, 1776, to the end of World War II, the United States was at war 93% of the time. On November 1, 1955, to April 30, 1975, the United States spent nearly 600,000 troops and 150 billion dollars to fight a bitter war in Vietnam for 20 years, but finally lost. The Vietnam War was undoubtedly the biggest Waterloo that the United States had encountered.
从1776年7月4日建国到第二次世界大战结束的169年间，美国93%的时间处于战争状态。从1955年11月1日至1975年4月30日，美国花费近60万兵力和1500亿美元，在越南打了20年苦战，但最终还是输了。越南战争无疑是美国遭遇的最大的滑铁卢。
The warm exchanges between the US and Vietnam in recent years were initially not well received by the outside world. In particular, in 2020, when the world was fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh spoke on the phone frequently.
美国和越南近年来的热情交流最初并不受到外界的欢迎。尤其是在2020年，当全世界都在抗击大流行时，美国国务卿蓬佩奥和越南副总理兼外长范平明经常通电话。
美国和越南近年来的热情交流最初并不受到外界的欢迎。尤其是在2020年，当全世界都在抗击大流行时，美国国务卿蓬佩奥和越南副总理兼外长范平明经常通电话。
In fact, after the friendship between the United States and Vietnam, the American capitalist thought was also brought in by Pham Binh Minh. Meanwhile, the economic contradiction in the United States was also transferred after the settlement of the epidemic in the United States. As a result, more Vietnamese agricultural products could be exported to the United States and American factories began to appear in large numbers in Vietnam. Of course, the United States is not so kind, in addition to economic and trade exchanges, the United States political infiltration is also going on.
事实上，在美越友好之后，美国的资本主义思想也被范平明引入。同时，当疫情在美国得到解决后，美越之间的经济矛盾也将随之转移。因此，更多的越南农产品可以出口到美国，美国工厂也会大量出现在越南。当然，美国也不是那么好心，除了经贸往来，美国的政治渗透也在进行中。
事实上，在美越友好之后，美国的资本主义思想也被范平明引入。同时，当疫情在美国得到解决后，美越之间的经济矛盾也将随之转移。因此，更多的越南农产品可以出口到美国，美国工厂也会大量出现在越南。当然，美国也不是那么好心，除了经贸往来，美国的政治渗透也在进行中。
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Abhishek Das, Young businessman/entrepreneur，Lives in India
If I speak of a big economy then it's definitely Thailand . Unless they take some necessary steps that country won't step out of the middle income trap.
I feel that Thai government should start giving incentives to families to have more babies and change the old age demographics since it is also acting as a time bomb.
如果要说一个大一些的经济体，那肯定是泰国。除非他们采取一些必要的措施，否则这个国家将无法走出中等收入陷阱。
我觉得泰国政府应该开始鼓励家庭多生孩子，改变老龄化的人口结构，因为这也是一个定时炸弹。
Abhishek Das, Young businessman/entrepreneur，Lives in India
If I speak of a big economy then it's definitely Thailand . Unless they take some necessary steps that country won't step out of the middle income trap.
I feel that Thai government should start giving incentives to families to have more babies and change the old age demographics since it is also acting as a time bomb.
如果要说一个大一些的经济体，那肯定是泰国。除非他们采取一些必要的措施，否则这个国家将无法走出中等收入陷阱。
我觉得泰国政府应该开始鼓励家庭多生孩子，改变老龄化的人口结构，因为这也是一个定时炸弹。
Thailand has invested quite well in retail like malls but they should invest more on universities too. Check the number of universities by countries and Thailand is way behind Vietnam and Phillipines. A good tertiary education will help them to achieve the target of industry 4.0 .
Tourism should never be 20% of GDP, it's risky. Now thais may say so should we shoo travellers away. Well, let's says have the tourism but use those resources to invest in other high end services like IT just like Malaysia.
泰国在零售类商场方面的投资相当不错，但他们也应该在大学方面加大投资。按国家划分，泰国的大学数量远远落后于越南和菲律宾。良好的高等教育将帮助他们实现工业4.0的目标。
旅游业永远不应该占GDP的20%，这是有风险的。现在泰国人可能会问，我们应该把游客拒之门外吗？好吧，我们可以拥有旅游业，但我们也可以利用这些资源投资于如IT之类的其他高端服务业（就像马来西亚一样）。
Tourism should never be 20% of GDP, it's risky. Now thais may say so should we shoo travellers away. Well, let's says have the tourism but use those resources to invest in other high end services like IT just like Malaysia.
泰国在零售类商场方面的投资相当不错，但他们也应该在大学方面加大投资。按国家划分，泰国的大学数量远远落后于越南和菲律宾。良好的高等教育将帮助他们实现工业4.0的目标。
旅游业永远不应该占GDP的20%，这是有风险的。现在泰国人可能会问，我们应该把游客拒之门外吗？好吧，我们可以拥有旅游业，但我们也可以利用这些资源投资于如IT之类的其他高端服务业（就像马来西亚一样）。
The kind of budget Thailand has they can easily invest in thier own companies R$D. It's fine that you are exporting foreign cars but you should have ur own too now as well.
You have a good expat population but mostly they are sort of lifestyle entrepreneurs. Try to create that ecosystem to bring those expats who will invest in ur software and startups. Your neighbouring nations like Vietnam and indonesia are building startups unicorns. And this is the age of startups unicorns ( companies with billion dollar valuations) .
泰国有这样的预算，他们可以很容易地投资于他们自己的公司的研发。虽然出口外国品牌的汽车很不错，但现在是时候出口你自己品牌的汽车了。
泰国有很多外籍人口，但他们大多只是在泰国度假。所以可以试着创造一个生态系统，把那些愿意投资于泰国的软件和初创企业的外籍人士带到这里来。像越南和印度尼西亚这样的邻国正在建立独角兽创业公司，现在是初创独角兽公司（估值10亿美元的公司）的时代了。
You have a good expat population but mostly they are sort of lifestyle entrepreneurs. Try to create that ecosystem to bring those expats who will invest in ur software and startups. Your neighbouring nations like Vietnam and indonesia are building startups unicorns. And this is the age of startups unicorns ( companies with billion dollar valuations) .
泰国有这样的预算，他们可以很容易地投资于他们自己的公司的研发。虽然出口外国品牌的汽车很不错，但现在是时候出口你自己品牌的汽车了。
泰国有很多外籍人口，但他们大多只是在泰国度假。所以可以试着创造一个生态系统，把那些愿意投资于泰国的软件和初创企业的外籍人士带到这里来。像越南和印度尼西亚这样的邻国正在建立独角兽创业公司，现在是初创独角兽公司（估值10亿美元的公司）的时代了。
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Wasut Pornpatcharapong, lives in Chiang Mai, Thailand (2018-present)
Amongst major SEA economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), the title belongs to Thailand.
We have looming demographics time bomb, and we got stuck in the middle income trap. We fail to ride the wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Compared to other major SEA economies, we don't even have unicorns.
在主要的东南亚经济体（新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南）中，这一头衔归泰国所有。
我们存在迫在眉睫的人口定时炸弹，我们陷入了中等收入陷阱，我们未能驾驭第四次工业革命的浪潮。与其他主要的东南亚经济体相比，我们甚至没有独角兽公司。
Wasut Pornpatcharapong, lives in Chiang Mai, Thailand (2018-present)
Amongst major SEA economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), the title belongs to Thailand.
We have looming demographics time bomb, and we got stuck in the middle income trap. We fail to ride the wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Compared to other major SEA economies, we don't even have unicorns.
在主要的东南亚经济体（新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南）中，这一头衔归泰国所有。
我们存在迫在眉睫的人口定时炸弹，我们陷入了中等收入陷阱，我们未能驾驭第四次工业革命的浪潮。与其他主要的东南亚经济体相比，我们甚至没有独角兽公司。
We are also mired in political instability, and we are destined to be greatly affected by global warming (Bangkok is slightly above the sea level). With COVID-19, tourism as an industry that provides much-needed hard currency for our economy also came to a screeching halt. Our income inequality is also among the worst in the world.
我们还深陷政治不稳定之中，我们注定会受到全球气候变暖的严重影响（曼谷略高于海平面）。随着新冠病毒的出现，旅游业作为一个为我国经济提供急需硬通货的行业也戛然而止。我们的收入不平等也是世界上最严重的。
我们还深陷政治不稳定之中，我们注定会受到全球气候变暖的严重影响（曼谷略高于海平面）。随着新冠病毒的出现，旅游业作为一个为我国经济提供急需硬通货的行业也戛然而止。我们的收入不平等也是世界上最严重的。
But development and progress are dynamical. Thailand's prospects may seem so bleak now, but hey, who knows what the future may hold? Maybe someday someone will come in and turn things around.
但发展和进步是动态的。虽然泰国的前景现在看起来很暗淡，但是谁知道未来会怎样呢？也许有一天会有人来扭转局面。
但发展和进步是动态的。虽然泰国的前景现在看起来很暗淡，但是谁知道未来会怎样呢？也许有一天会有人来扭转局面。
Erwin Anciano
The Philippines to be honest is largely in the same boat.
We don’t have the demographic time bomb problem but we have a lot of other problems too. If I had to rank it though we’re just slightly above Thailand for future prospects.
This is how I’d rate it from brightest to darkest.
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
说实话，菲律宾基本上和泰国是难兄难弟。
虽然我们没有人口定时炸弹的问题，但我们也有很多其他的问题。如果我不得不给它排名的话，我们在未来的前景上只略高于泰国。
以下是我从最亮到最暗的评价：
新加坡
马来西亚
印度尼西亚
越南
菲律宾
泰国
The Philippines to be honest is largely in the same boat.
We don’t have the demographic time bomb problem but we have a lot of other problems too. If I had to rank it though we’re just slightly above Thailand for future prospects.
This is how I’d rate it from brightest to darkest.
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
说实话，菲律宾基本上和泰国是难兄难弟。
虽然我们没有人口定时炸弹的问题，但我们也有很多其他的问题。如果我不得不给它排名的话，我们在未来的前景上只略高于泰国。
以下是我从最亮到最暗的评价：
新加坡
马来西亚
印度尼西亚
越南
菲律宾
泰国
Joey Guadalupe
Vietnam has worst population demographic time bomb than thailand. But theyll get by, and i believe thailand will too.
越南的人口定时炸弹问题比泰国还严重。但是他们会度过去的，我相信泰国也会。
Vietnam has worst population demographic time bomb than thailand. But theyll get by, and i believe thailand will too.
越南的人口定时炸弹问题比泰国还严重。但是他们会度过去的，我相信泰国也会。
Anugrah Setiawan
Well, Indonesia already have 2 child policy back in Suharto’s era. liked or not, it helps Indonesia from have too many people on too little land.
But, as per now, our government do not impose this policy anymore, yet many people stick on just 2 child per family. now it just simply because education and healthcare is expensive if you had a big family.
在苏哈托时代，印尼已经有了二胎政策。不管喜欢与否，它帮助印尼摆脱了人多地少的困境。
但是，根据现在的情况，我们的政府不再实施这一政策，然而许多人坚持每个家庭只生两个孩子，这仅仅是因为如果你有一个大家庭，你将很难负担得起教育和医疗的开销。
Well, Indonesia already have 2 child policy back in Suharto’s era. liked or not, it helps Indonesia from have too many people on too little land.
But, as per now, our government do not impose this policy anymore, yet many people stick on just 2 child per family. now it just simply because education and healthcare is expensive if you had a big family.
在苏哈托时代，印尼已经有了二胎政策。不管喜欢与否，它帮助印尼摆脱了人多地少的困境。
但是，根据现在的情况，我们的政府不再实施这一政策，然而许多人坚持每个家庭只生两个孩子，这仅仅是因为如果你有一个大家庭，你将很难负担得起教育和医疗的开销。
Duy Inoue Le
for vietnam it usually education that made parent think about have more kid , we spend alot money on education , too bad minority ethnic dont think like us = they are general poorer then us and hoa ( chinese ) but thing are changing slowly
对越南来说，通常是教育让父母想到生更多的孩子，我们在教育上花了很多钱，可惜少数民族不像我们这样想，因为他们普遍比我们和华（中国人）人穷，但事情正在慢慢改变。
for vietnam it usually education that made parent think about have more kid , we spend alot money on education , too bad minority ethnic dont think like us = they are general poorer then us and hoa ( chinese ) but thing are changing slowly
对越南来说，通常是教育让父母想到生更多的孩子，我们在教育上花了很多钱，可惜少数民族不像我们这样想，因为他们普遍比我们和华（中国人）人穷，但事情正在慢慢改变。
Sukhdeep Patel
I’d put Vietnam higher, probably in third because they have a highly intelligent population and a one party state that can get things done more efficiently. The PH should be last, it’s just dysfunctional and the country seems owned by a few rich families. It also can’t control it’s population thanks to the Catholic church
我认为越南的排名更高，可能排在第三位，因为他们拥有高度聪明的人口和能够更有效地完成任务的一党专政的政体。菲律宾应该排在最后，它似乎是一个由几个富裕的家庭拥有的功能失调的国家。多亏了天主教堂，它无法控制自己的人口规模。
I’d put Vietnam higher, probably in third because they have a highly intelligent population and a one party state that can get things done more efficiently. The PH should be last, it’s just dysfunctional and the country seems owned by a few rich families. It also can’t control it’s population thanks to the Catholic church
我认为越南的排名更高，可能排在第三位，因为他们拥有高度聪明的人口和能够更有效地完成任务的一党专政的政体。菲律宾应该排在最后，它似乎是一个由几个富裕的家庭拥有的功能失调的国家。多亏了天主教堂，它无法控制自己的人口规模。
Tudor Reece
Thailand does produce a decent amount of machinery and tech goods, which is a profitable thing, but I don’t believe it’s enough. And from what I’ve learned, the tourism, while still booming, is pretty minor to the economy.
Thailand’s issue is sustainability and planning for the future, from what I can see. Too many super rich guys and not enough grass roots development.
泰国确实生产了相当数量的机械和科技产品，虽然这是一件有利可图的事业，但我认为这还不够。据我所知，泰国的旅游业虽然仍在蓬勃发展，但对经济的影响很小。
据我所见，泰国的问题在于经济发展的可持续性和对未来的规划。泰国的超级富豪太多了，底层草根的发展不够。
Thailand does produce a decent amount of machinery and tech goods, which is a profitable thing, but I don’t believe it’s enough. And from what I’ve learned, the tourism, while still booming, is pretty minor to the economy.
Thailand’s issue is sustainability and planning for the future, from what I can see. Too many super rich guys and not enough grass roots development.
泰国确实生产了相当数量的机械和科技产品，虽然这是一件有利可图的事业，但我认为这还不够。据我所知，泰国的旅游业虽然仍在蓬勃发展，但对经济的影响很小。
据我所见，泰国的问题在于经济发展的可持续性和对未来的规划。泰国的超级富豪太多了，底层草根的发展不够。
Wasut Pornpatcharapong
In the past, yes. I would say 2001–2006 was the most optimistic period in recent history of Thailand, so people were hopeful of their bright future. However, since 2006, Thailand got stuck in a political mess that doesn't seem to ever get resolved, and we became much more polarized akin to the polarization of US politics post-Reagan.
在过去，是这样。我想说2001-2006年是泰国近代史上最乐观的时期，所以人们对自己的美好未来充满了希望。然而，自2006年以来，泰国陷入了一场似乎永远无法解决的政治混乱，我们变得更加两极分化，类似于后里根时代美国政治的两极分化。
In the past, yes. I would say 2001–2006 was the most optimistic period in recent history of Thailand, so people were hopeful of their bright future. However, since 2006, Thailand got stuck in a political mess that doesn't seem to ever get resolved, and we became much more polarized akin to the polarization of US politics post-Reagan.
在过去，是这样。我想说2001-2006年是泰国近代史上最乐观的时期，所以人们对自己的美好未来充满了希望。然而，自2006年以来，泰国陷入了一场似乎永远无法解决的政治混乱，我们变得更加两极分化，类似于后里根时代美国政治的两极分化。
In terms of machineries and high tech goods, the problem is we are merely manufacturing for someone else but we don't have our own brands. (Even Vietnam has their own car brand, but Thailand doesn't). Our rich people are good at retailing and reselling, but poor at innovation, and general populace are risk-averse and prefer to work as salarymen / women in the government or big, reputable companies for the sake of financial stability (this is getting worse as the economy becomes worse in recent years). This leads to the relative absence of Thailand in a startup scene compare to our neighbors.
在机械和高科技产品方面，问题在于我们只是为别人生产，我们没有自己的品牌（甚至越南也有自己的汽车品牌，但泰国没有）。我们的富人擅长零售和转售，但他们缺乏创新能力，而普通的民众厌恶风险，为了稳定他们更愿意在政府或知名大公司当工薪阶层（随着近年来经济的恶化，情况越来越糟）。这就导致泰国在创业领域与我们的邻国相比相对缺失。
在机械和高科技产品方面，问题在于我们只是为别人生产，我们没有自己的品牌（甚至越南也有自己的汽车品牌，但泰国没有）。我们的富人擅长零售和转售，但他们缺乏创新能力，而普通的民众厌恶风险，为了稳定他们更愿意在政府或知名大公司当工薪阶层（随着近年来经济的恶化，情况越来越糟）。这就导致泰国在创业领域与我们的邻国相比相对缺失。
Tourism is also a significant chunk of our economy, and it became more significant in recent years, (17% of GDP in the first half of 2019)
Because of this, our economy is predicted to crash the most in ASEAN-6 this year, and recovered the least next year.
旅游业也是我国经济的一个重要组成部分，近年来变得更加重要（2019年上半年占GDP的17%）
正因为如此，我们的经济预计今年在东盟六国中受到的打击最大，明年复苏得最少。
Because of this, our economy is predicted to crash the most in ASEAN-6 this year, and recovered the least next year.
旅游业也是我国经济的一个重要组成部分，近年来变得更加重要（2019年上半年占GDP的17%）
正因为如此，我们的经济预计今年在东盟六国中受到的打击最大，明年复苏得最少。
Erick Lama
here is my imagination about the future of ASEAN. please dont take it seriously
Indonesia will ended like Malaysia today (prosperous but quite laid back and conservative)
Malaysia will ended up like Singapore today (the differences is The malay will control the country not chinese)
Thailand will ended up like Greece (depends heavily on tourisme)
Philiphines will ended up like Thailand today (quite prosperous but there is no significant development)
以下是我对东盟未来的想象，请不要当真。
印尼最终会发展到今天的马来西亚的水平（繁荣但相当悠闲和保守）
马来西亚会发展到新加坡的水平（不同的是马来人会控制这个国家而不是华人）
泰国最终会像希腊一样（严重依赖旅游业）
菲律宾最终会像今天的泰国一样（相当繁荣，但没有重大发展）
here is my imagination about the future of ASEAN. please dont take it seriously
Indonesia will ended like Malaysia today (prosperous but quite laid back and conservative)
Malaysia will ended up like Singapore today (the differences is The malay will control the country not chinese)
Thailand will ended up like Greece (depends heavily on tourisme)
Philiphines will ended up like Thailand today (quite prosperous but there is no significant development)
以下是我对东盟未来的想象，请不要当真。
印尼最终会发展到今天的马来西亚的水平（繁荣但相当悠闲和保守）
马来西亚会发展到新加坡的水平（不同的是马来人会控制这个国家而不是华人）
泰国最终会像希腊一样（严重依赖旅游业）
菲律宾最终会像今天的泰国一样（相当繁荣，但没有重大发展）
Vietnam will ended up like S. Korea (very competitive and well developed)
Singapore will stay the same
Other SEA country will more prosperous and develped.
thanks
越南最终会像韩国一样（竞争激烈，发展良好）
新加坡将保持不变
其他东南亚国家将更加繁荣和有更多发展
谢谢
Singapore will stay the same
Other SEA country will more prosperous and develped.
thanks
越南最终会像韩国一样（竞争激烈，发展良好）
新加坡将保持不变
其他东南亚国家将更加繁荣和有更多发展
谢谢
Anh Phong Nguyen
In Asean 6, except Singapore and Malaysia, I think the rest will stuck in the middle income trap. Vietnam lost all of its prime time to develop (2006–2016) due to a corrupted prime minister. Even though the current administration has done a superb job, the population is just aging too fast. I really just hope Vietnam would reach to the point of Thailand in the next decade.
在东盟6国中，除了新加坡和马来西亚，我认为其他国家都将陷入中等收入陷阱。由于一位腐败的总理，越南失去了所有发展的黄金时期（2006-2016年）。尽管本届政府做得很出色，但越南人口的老龄化太快了，我真希望越南在未来十年能达到泰国的水平。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
In Asean 6, except Singapore and Malaysia, I think the rest will stuck in the middle income trap. Vietnam lost all of its prime time to develop (2006–2016) due to a corrupted prime minister. Even though the current administration has done a superb job, the population is just aging too fast. I really just hope Vietnam would reach to the point of Thailand in the next decade.
在东盟6国中，除了新加坡和马来西亚，我认为其他国家都将陷入中等收入陷阱。由于一位腐败的总理，越南失去了所有发展的黄金时期（2006-2016年）。尽管本届政府做得很出色，但越南人口的老龄化太快了，我真希望越南在未来十年能达到泰国的水平。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
============
Danzel Samuel, lives in Tangerang, Banten, Indonesia
I’m surprised that nobody has mentioned Brunei.
The oil-rich country has been hugely dependant on oil ever since it’s existence. It is their main source of income. 90% of their exports are oil and gas as of 2018.
Oil has brought them enormous wealth, huge benefits for Bruneians (no income tax, free healthcare, free education), cheap fuel, and made their royal family rich.
我很惊讶没有人提到文莱。
这个盛产石油的国家自诞生之日起就严重依赖石油，这是他们的主要收入来源。截至2018年，他们90%的出口产品是石油和天然气。
石油给他们带来了巨大的财富，给文莱人带来了巨大的利益（在文莱没有所得税，实行免费的医疗，免费的教育），提供廉价的燃料，并使他们的王室变得富有。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Danzel Samuel, lives in Tangerang, Banten, Indonesia
I’m surprised that nobody has mentioned Brunei.
The oil-rich country has been hugely dependant on oil ever since it’s existence. It is their main source of income. 90% of their exports are oil and gas as of 2018.
Oil has brought them enormous wealth, huge benefits for Bruneians (no income tax, free healthcare, free education), cheap fuel, and made their royal family rich.
我很惊讶没有人提到文莱。
这个盛产石油的国家自诞生之日起就严重依赖石油，这是他们的主要收入来源。截至2018年，他们90%的出口产品是石油和天然气。
石油给他们带来了巨大的财富，给文莱人带来了巨大的利益（在文莱没有所得税，实行免费的医疗，免费的教育），提供廉价的燃料，并使他们的王室变得富有。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
However, the decline in oil prices and demand has seen their fortunes dried up.
In a 2018 report, Asean Today said in part:
Oil and gas sector contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has already fallen from 63.3% in 2014 to an estimated 50% these days…Brunei Darussalam remains committed to natural gas production and its customers through continued commitment in rejuvenating its upstream and downstream facilities to ensure the reliability of supply to its existing and future customers for the next 30 years.
然而，石油价格和需求的下降使他们的财富开始枯竭。
在2018年的一份报告中，关于东盟的部分写到：
石油和天然气行业对该国国内生产总值（GDP）的贡献率已从2014年的63.3%下降到目前估计的50%……文莱将继续致力于天然气生产及其客户的开发，通过持续致力于振兴其上下游设施，以确保在未来30年为现有的和未来的客户提供天然气供应服务的可靠性。
In a 2018 report, Asean Today said in part:
Oil and gas sector contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has already fallen from 63.3% in 2014 to an estimated 50% these days…Brunei Darussalam remains committed to natural gas production and its customers through continued commitment in rejuvenating its upstream and downstream facilities to ensure the reliability of supply to its existing and future customers for the next 30 years.
然而，石油价格和需求的下降使他们的财富开始枯竭。
在2018年的一份报告中，关于东盟的部分写到：
石油和天然气行业对该国国内生产总值（GDP）的贡献率已从2014年的63.3%下降到目前估计的50%……文莱将继续致力于天然气生产及其客户的开发，通过持续致力于振兴其上下游设施，以确保在未来30年为现有的和未来的客户提供天然气供应服务的可靠性。
Their GDP has also declined From 2012 to 2016 it dropped from $19.05 billion to $11.4 billion. It is expected to decline in 2020 after a brief rise.
It’s GDP annual growth is also not looking good. It’s fluctuating between recession and growth.
Looking from this, a good way to counter this would be to diversify the economy, like what Saudi Arabia did to counter the oil crash. However, they increased their oil production, despite a global oversupply.
从2012年到2016年，他们的国内生产总值也有所下降，从190.5亿美元下降到114亿美元。在短暂上升之后，预计到2020年还会下降。
它的GDP年增长率看起来也不好，它一直在衰退和增长之间波动。
从这一点来看，应对这种情况的一个好办法是实现经济的多样化，就像沙特阿拉伯为应对石油危机所做的那样。然而，尽管全球石油供应过剩，但它们还是增加了石油产量。
It’s GDP annual growth is also not looking good. It’s fluctuating between recession and growth.
Looking from this, a good way to counter this would be to diversify the economy, like what Saudi Arabia did to counter the oil crash. However, they increased their oil production, despite a global oversupply.
从2012年到2016年，他们的国内生产总值也有所下降，从190.5亿美元下降到114亿美元。在短暂上升之后，预计到2020年还会下降。
它的GDP年增长率看起来也不好，它一直在衰退和增长之间波动。
从这一点来看，应对这种情况的一个好办法是实现经济的多样化，就像沙特阿拉伯为应对石油危机所做的那样。然而，尽管全球石油供应过剩，但它们还是增加了石油产量。
The minister added that trading for May cargo will be continued and trading for the June cargo to begin today, noting that the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting demand especially in the US, which will have implications on other benchmarks.
“Production will be continued in Brunei and I’ve had a discussion with Brunei Shell Petroleum Co Sdn Bhd (BSP) on this matter as well, and this is the time when you really need to make sure that you always have a diversified portfolio of buyers, ” said the minister.
文莱的部长补充说，5月份的货物交易将继续进行，6月份的货物交易将于今天开始，他指出，大流行正在影响需求（尤其是在美国），这将对其他基准产生影响。
“文莱的油气生产将继续进行，我也与文莱壳牌石油有限公司就此事进行了讨论，现在是我们真正需要确保拥有多样化的买家组合的时候了”，这位部长说。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
“Production will be continued in Brunei and I’ve had a discussion with Brunei Shell Petroleum Co Sdn Bhd (BSP) on this matter as well, and this is the time when you really need to make sure that you always have a diversified portfolio of buyers, ” said the minister.
文莱的部长补充说，5月份的货物交易将继续进行，6月份的货物交易将于今天开始，他指出，大流行正在影响需求（尤其是在美国），这将对其他基准产生影响。
“文莱的油气生产将继续进行，我也与文莱壳牌石油有限公司就此事进行了讨论，现在是我们真正需要确保拥有多样化的买家组合的时候了”，这位部长说。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
They actually had the opportunity to introduce tourism but sharia law killed any chance of tourists spending their dollars. It has also tarnished its public image.
The decline has also affected it’s people. Youth unemployment is at 25%, the highest in ASEAN. Its unemployment rate is at 9.12%
Unless Brunei diversifies their economy, it will continue to decline. It’s brightest will leave for greener pastures.
他们实际上有机会发展旅游业，但伊斯兰教法扼杀了游客花钱的任何机会，这也破坏了自己的公众形象。
这种衰退也影响到了它的人民，文莱青年的失业率为25%，为东盟最高，它的整体失业率也达到了9.12%。
除非文莱实现经济多样化，否则文莱经济将继续下滑。
The decline has also affected it’s people. Youth unemployment is at 25%, the highest in ASEAN. Its unemployment rate is at 9.12%
Unless Brunei diversifies their economy, it will continue to decline. It’s brightest will leave for greener pastures.
他们实际上有机会发展旅游业，但伊斯兰教法扼杀了游客花钱的任何机会，这也破坏了自己的公众形象。
这种衰退也影响到了它的人民，文莱青年的失业率为25%，为东盟最高，它的整体失业率也达到了9.12%。
除非文莱实现经济多样化，否则文莱经济将继续下滑。
Chen Jiat
I read one Quora answer somewhere that suggest when Brunei’s oil depletes, it will sell its ports to China and become sort of a puppet state. This will allow China to have a foothold on SEA region, which is scarily not hard to imagine.
我在某个地方读到过一个Quora答案，上面说，当文莱的石油枯竭时，文莱将把港口卖给中国并成为一个傀L国家。这将使中国能够在东南亚地区站稳脚跟，这一点不难想象。
I read one Quora answer somewhere that suggest when Brunei’s oil depletes, it will sell its ports to China and become sort of a puppet state. This will allow China to have a foothold on SEA region, which is scarily not hard to imagine.
我在某个地方读到过一个Quora答案，上面说，当文莱的石油枯竭时，文莱将把港口卖给中国并成为一个傀L国家。这将使中国能够在东南亚地区站稳脚跟，这一点不难想象。
Vivianne Chin
i think they will probably sell to the US. Since USD still have much higher value than RMB, and probably more desperate to regain her control over SEA region.
我想他们可能会卖给美国，因为美元仍然比人民币有更高的价值，而且美国可能更迫切地想重新控制东南亚地区。
i think they will probably sell to the US. Since USD still have much higher value than RMB, and probably more desperate to regain her control over SEA region.
我想他们可能会卖给美国，因为美元仍然比人民币有更高的价值，而且美国可能更迫切地想重新控制东南亚地区。
Andrew Chang
Doesn't make sense, since most goods to maintain quality of life for their citizens will come from China anyway. Unless Bruneians want copious amounts of beef, barley and soybeans from the USA.
这不合理，因为不管怎样，它们的大多数维持本国公民生活质量的商品都将来自中国，除非文莱人想要从美国进口大量的牛肉、大麦和大豆。
Doesn't make sense, since most goods to maintain quality of life for their citizens will come from China anyway. Unless Bruneians want copious amounts of beef, barley and soybeans from the USA.
这不合理，因为不管怎样，它们的大多数维持本国公民生活质量的商品都将来自中国，除非文莱人想要从美国进口大量的牛肉、大麦和大豆。
Gokula Krishnan
Why would china stop selling goods if Brunei sell its port to US. China will sell it for money. Isn't china still having trade with US even after trump criticize them often.
如果文莱把港口卖给美国，中国为什么要停止销售货物给它们？中国会把它卖了赚钱，即使美国经常批评中国，中国不也还是在和美国做生意吗？
Why would china stop selling goods if Brunei sell its port to US. China will sell it for money. Isn't china still having trade with US even after trump criticize them often.
如果文莱把港口卖给美国，中国为什么要停止销售货物给它们？中国会把它卖了赚钱，即使美国经常批评中国，中国不也还是在和美国做生意吗？
Chys Barr
Brunei probably is running out of the crude oil reserves now.
One of my friends who worked in the O&G industry in that region told me a few years ago that Brunei was/still working with its neighbouring country using horizontal pipeline technique to “suck” the crude oil to their country. He was one of the project engineers and Brunei paid the government leaders from that neighbouring country very well due to their kindness.
文莱现在的原油储备可能已经用完了。
几年前，我在该地区油气行业工作的一位朋友告诉我，文莱正在/仍在与邻国合作，利用水平管道技术将别人的原油“吸”到他们的国家。他是项目工程师之一，由于邻国政府的领导人对文莱的好意，文莱给了他们很好的报酬。
Brunei probably is running out of the crude oil reserves now.
One of my friends who worked in the O&G industry in that region told me a few years ago that Brunei was/still working with its neighbouring country using horizontal pipeline technique to “suck” the crude oil to their country. He was one of the project engineers and Brunei paid the government leaders from that neighbouring country very well due to their kindness.
文莱现在的原油储备可能已经用完了。
几年前，我在该地区油气行业工作的一位朋友告诉我，文莱正在/仍在与邻国合作，利用水平管道技术将别人的原油“吸”到他们的国家。他是项目工程师之一，由于邻国政府的领导人对文莱的好意，文莱给了他们很好的报酬。
Jansen Junaedi
You're very right. I was planning on writing brunei, but you have answered it. Instead of modernizing like UAE, brunei went Sharia which is a stupid decision especially for an islamic country with no significant islamic holy site.
你说得很对。我本来打算写写文莱，但你已经回答了。文莱没有像阿联酋那样实现现代化，而是选择了伊斯兰教法，这是一个愚蠢的决定，尤其是对于一个没有重要的伊斯兰圣地的伊斯兰国家来说。
You're very right. I was planning on writing brunei, but you have answered it. Instead of modernizing like UAE, brunei went Sharia which is a stupid decision especially for an islamic country with no significant islamic holy site.
你说得很对。我本来打算写写文莱，但你已经回答了。文莱没有像阿联酋那样实现现代化，而是选择了伊斯兰教法，这是一个愚蠢的决定，尤其是对于一个没有重要的伊斯兰圣地的伊斯兰国家来说。
Han Shyone Ooi
Brunei is a small country. Just what can they diversify to?
文莱是个小国，他们能做什么样的多样化？
Brunei is a small country. Just what can they diversify to?
文莱是个小国，他们能做什么样的多样化？
Edrick Lawrence Ong
They could’ve gone the way of the UAE and turned Brunei into another Dubai, turned Brunei International Airport into an entry/jumping-off point for people all over the world to South-East Asia, Australia, and Oceania, essentially, compete with Singapore, become a stopping point for container ships headed to and from China, Australia and New Zealand etc, unfortunately, they didn’t do any of this, Brunei is essentially in the middle of pulling off a Nauru and squandering all of it’s money.
他们本可以走阿联酋的路，把文莱变成另一个迪拜，并与新加坡竞争，把文莱国际机场变成全世界人到东南亚、澳大利亚和大洋洲的一个入口/出发点，成为往来中国、澳大利亚、新西兰的集装箱船的停靠点....不幸的是，他们没有这样做，文莱基本上是处于成为下一个瑙鲁和挥霍所有的钱的中间状态。
They could’ve gone the way of the UAE and turned Brunei into another Dubai, turned Brunei International Airport into an entry/jumping-off point for people all over the world to South-East Asia, Australia, and Oceania, essentially, compete with Singapore, become a stopping point for container ships headed to and from China, Australia and New Zealand etc, unfortunately, they didn’t do any of this, Brunei is essentially in the middle of pulling off a Nauru and squandering all of it’s money.
他们本可以走阿联酋的路，把文莱变成另一个迪拜，并与新加坡竞争，把文莱国际机场变成全世界人到东南亚、澳大利亚和大洋洲的一个入口/出发点，成为往来中国、澳大利亚、新西兰的集装箱船的停靠点....不幸的是，他们没有这样做，文莱基本上是处于成为下一个瑙鲁和挥霍所有的钱的中间状态。
Riana Citra
Qatar and Norway are small country heavily depend on oil and gas. But they have many assets and properties across the world with their national pension fund. atleast those two probably can survive eating the interest from the assets since they dont have many people to feed either hahaha
卡塔尔和挪威是严重依赖石油和天然气的小国，但他们的国家养老基金在世界各地拥有许多资产和财产。至少这两个国家可以靠这些资产产生的利息来生存，因为他们没有太多的人口需要养活，哈哈哈。
Qatar and Norway are small country heavily depend on oil and gas. But they have many assets and properties across the world with their national pension fund. atleast those two probably can survive eating the interest from the assets since they dont have many people to feed either hahaha
卡塔尔和挪威是严重依赖石油和天然气的小国，但他们的国家养老基金在世界各地拥有许多资产和财产。至少这两个国家可以靠这些资产产生的利息来生存，因为他们没有太多的人口需要养活，哈哈哈。
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