话题讨论：德国第一次地区性模拟停电，预计96小时内将有400人死亡
正文翻译
Germany's municipalities are getting serious and preparing for the concrete consequences of a widespread power blackout. The Hessian Rheingau-Taunus district is the first of 401 German districts and urban districts to have a specialist company in Berlin examine and simulate what threatens in the event of a blackout in order to be prepared for the increasingly likely eventuality.
德国的市政当局正变得严肃起来，准备应对大范围停电的具体后果。在德国401个区和城区中，黑森莱茵加陶努斯区率先行动，请柏林的一家专业公司负责检查和模拟在停电情况下可能出现的威胁，以便为这种越来越可能发生的情况做好准备。
Germany's municipalities are getting serious and preparing for the concrete consequences of a widespread power blackout. The Hessian Rheingau-Taunus district is the first of 401 German districts and urban districts to have a specialist company in Berlin examine and simulate what threatens in the event of a blackout in order to be prepared for the increasingly likely eventuality.
德国的市政当局正变得严肃起来，准备应对大范围停电的具体后果。在德国401个区和城区中，黑森莱茵加陶努斯区率先行动，请柏林的一家专业公司负责检查和模拟在停电情况下可能出现的威胁，以便为这种越来越可能发生的情况做好准备。
According to this, 400 deaths could be expected within 96 hours. After 24 hours, livestock would die, substations would fail, and water tanks would run dry. Then there would be looting, fires and economic damage in the hundreds of millions. Unlike Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck, district fire inspector Christian Rossel currently considers the risk of a blackout to be much more likely than a lack of gas, which would not have such dramatic consequences, even if one were not preparing for it.
据此估计，96小时内可能会有400人死亡。24小时后，牲畜会死亡，变电站会失灵，水箱会干涸。然后就会发生抢劫、火灾和数亿的经济损失。与联邦经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克不同，地区消防督察克里斯蒂安·罗塞尔认为，目前停电的风险比天然气短缺的可能性要大得多，即使人们没有为后者做准备，也不会造成如此严重的后果。
据此估计，96小时内可能会有400人死亡。24小时后，牲畜会死亡，变电站会失灵，水箱会干涸。然后就会发生抢劫、火灾和数亿的经济损失。与联邦经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克不同，地区消防督察克里斯蒂安·罗塞尔认为，目前停电的风险比天然气短缺的可能性要大得多，即使人们没有为后者做准备，也不会造成如此严重的后果。
Authorities admit danger is real
当局承认危险是真实存在的。
当局承认危险是真实存在的。
The blackout, a widespread power failure, is sadly no longer a horror fairy tale of sinister conspiracy theorists as authorities now consider the danger to be real (but conceal the fact that it is home-made and a consequence of their own catastrophic policies).
不幸的是，这次大范围的停电不再是邪恶阴谋论者的恐怖童话，因为当局现在认为危险是真实存在的(但掩盖了一个事实，这种后果是他们自己的灾难性政策造成的)。
不幸的是，这次大范围的停电不再是邪恶阴谋论者的恐怖童话，因为当局现在认为危险是真实存在的(但掩盖了一个事实，这种后果是他们自己的灾难性政策造成的)。
The German Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) sounded the alarm and warned of a possible overload of the German power grid. Even worse: cities and municipalities are not remotely prepared for such a scenario.
德国城镇和市政协会 (DStGB) 曾拉响警报，警告德国电网可能过载。更糟糕的是，城市和市政当局根本没有为这种情况做好准备。
德国城镇和市政协会 (DStGB) 曾拉响警报，警告德国电网可能过载。更糟糕的是，城市和市政当局根本没有为这种情况做好准备。
“There is a risk of a blackout,” said DStGB chief executive Gerd Landsberg told German weekly Welt am Sonntag that realistic scenarios are both hacker attacks and “an overload of the power grid – for example, if the 650 000 fan heaters sold this year are connected to the grid if the gas supply fails”. In this case, Landsberg expressly does not want to rule out widespread power failures.
“有停电的风险，”DStGB首席执行官Gerd Landsberg告诉德国《周日世界报》，现实的情况是黑客攻击和“电网过载——例如，如果今年销售的65万台暖风机在天然气供应失效时连接到电网”。在这种情况下，兰德斯伯格明确表示不排除大范围停电的可能性。
“有停电的风险，”DStGB首席执行官Gerd Landsberg告诉德国《周日世界报》，现实的情况是黑客攻击和“电网过载——例如，如果今年销售的65万台暖风机在天然气供应失效时连接到电网”。在这种情况下，兰德斯伯格明确表示不排除大范围停电的可能性。
The head of the DStGB is even clearer: the federal government has recognized the situation, but is not responding as it should. Every citizen must be aware of what happens when there is no electricity: “Then there is no water, you can’t fill up, after two days you can’t charge your cell phone. We are in no way prepared for such a scenario!”.
DStGB的负责人说得更清楚：联邦政府已经认识到了这一形势，但没有做出应有的反应。每个公民都必须意识到没有电会发生什么:“然后没有水，你不能加油，两天后你的手机不能充电。我们对这种情况完全没有准备!”
DStGB的负责人说得更清楚：联邦政府已经认识到了这一形势，但没有做出应有的反应。每个公民都必须意识到没有电会发生什么:“然后没有水，你不能加油，两天后你的手机不能充电。我们对这种情况完全没有准备!”
The “blackout” would only be a particularly drastic scenario. Less drastic scenarios such as electricity or gas shortages have long been casting their shadows. An umbrella organization for independent welfare in Germany based in Berlin, the Paritätischer Wohlfahrtsverband recently warned that, as a result of the exploding energy costs, “the livelihoods of social institutions and services are threatened to an unprecedented extent”.
“停电”只会是一个特别极端的情况。长期以来，电力或天然气短缺等不那么严重的情况一直在产生影响。总部位于柏林的德国独立福利组织Paritätischer Wohlfahrtsverband最近警告称，由于能源成本的爆炸式增长，“社会机构和服务的生计受到了前所未有的威胁”。
“停电”只会是一个特别极端的情况。长期以来，电力或天然气短缺等不那么严重的情况一直在产生影响。总部位于柏林的德国独立福利组织Paritätischer Wohlfahrtsverband最近警告称，由于能源成本的爆炸式增长，“社会机构和服务的生计受到了前所未有的威胁”。
Retirement and nursing homes, for example, are coming under pressure due to the rapidly increasing costs. The Federal Association of Private Providers of Social Services (BPA) predicted that “this crisis will cost some providers their existence because the burdens from rising energy costs, general inflation and the omnipresent shortage of skilled workers can no longer be borne”. And all this is just the beginning, according to Bloomberg. The federal government’s €65 billion financial aid package will not be able to prevent the impending recession.
例如，由于成本迅速增加，养老院和疗养院正面临压力。联邦私营社会服务提供者协会(BPA)预测，“这场危机将使一些提供者难以幸存，因为能源成本上升、普遍通货膨胀和技术工人无处不在的短缺所带来的负担将无法再承受”。据彭博社报道，这一切仅仅是个开始。联邦政府650亿欧元的财政援助计划将无法阻止即将到来的经济衰退。
例如，由于成本迅速增加，养老院和疗养院正面临压力。联邦私营社会服务提供者协会(BPA)预测，“这场危机将使一些提供者难以幸存，因为能源成本上升、普遍通货膨胀和技术工人无处不在的短缺所带来的负担将无法再承受”。据彭博社报道，这一切仅仅是个开始。联邦政府650亿欧元的财政援助计划将无法阻止即将到来的经济衰退。
Commerzbank economist Jörg Krämer meanwhile warned that the announced steps only “create the illusion that large parts of the population can be protected from the consequences of rising energy prices”.
与此同时，德国商业银行经济学家Jörg Krämer警告称，已宣布的措施只“制造了一种错觉，即大部分人可以免受能源价格上涨的影响”。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
与此同时，德国商业银行经济学家Jörg Krämer警告称，已宣布的措施只“制造了一种错觉，即大部分人可以免受能源价格上涨的影响”。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
What happens if the lights go out?
如果灯灭了会发生什么?
如果灯灭了会发生什么?
In the event of a widespread power failure, nothing works anymore. Internet, landline telephony and heating systems would fail first, followed closely by mobile communications and digital radio. Gas stations would run out of petrol, electronic money and payment systems would fail, food could no longer be cooled. Clinics, care facilities and water suppliers and disposal companies depend on their respective equipment to outlast the blackout. Rossel made it clear that the district could not ensure the power supply. Like Landsberg, he advised citizens to stock up on food and drinking water for 14 days.
在大范围停电的情况下，一切都无法运转。互联网、座机电话和供暖系统将首先失效，紧随其后的是移动通信和数字无线电。加油站将耗尽汽油，电子货币和支付系统将失灵，食物将无法再冷藏。诊所、护理设施、水供应商和污水处理公司依靠各自的设备度过停电。罗塞尔明确表示，该地区无法保证电力供应。和兰茨伯格一样，他建议市民储备14天的食物和饮用水。
在大范围停电的情况下，一切都无法运转。互联网、座机电话和供暖系统将首先失效，紧随其后的是移动通信和数字无线电。加油站将耗尽汽油，电子货币和支付系统将失灵，食物将无法再冷藏。诊所、护理设施、水供应商和污水处理公司依靠各自的设备度过停电。罗塞尔明确表示，该地区无法保证电力供应。和兰茨伯格一样，他建议市民储备14天的食物和饮用水。
The district will ensure that administration and civil protection work so that emergency aid can be coordinated. For this, the “equipment security” has to ensure electricity for servers and satellite-supported communication systems for the crisis management teams. The current emergency generator can run continuously for 16 hours. However, since the police, fire brigades and rescue workers would also need several 10 000 liters per day, negotiations are being held with heating oil suppliers.
该地区将确保行政和民防工作，以便协调紧急援助。为此，必须确保“设备安全”，为危机管理团队的服务器和卫星支持的通信系统供电。目前的应急发电机可连续运行16小时。但是，由于警察、消防队和救援人员每天也需要1万升的燃料油，因此正在与燃料油供应商进行协商。
该地区将确保行政和民防工作，以便协调紧急援助。为此，必须确保“设备安全”，为危机管理团队的服务器和卫星支持的通信系统供电。目前的应急发电机可连续运行16小时。但是，由于警察、消防队和救援人员每天也需要1万升的燃料油，因此正在与燃料油供应商进行协商。
All of these scenarios show a country that is on the brink of complete collapse in an emergency due to ideology-driven politics and decades of neglect of important infrastructure.
所有这些情景都表明，由于意识形态驱动的政治和几十年来对重要基础设施的忽视，一个国家正处于紧急情况下完全崩溃的边缘。
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所有这些情景都表明，由于意识形态驱动的政治和几十年来对重要基础设施的忽视，一个国家正处于紧急情况下完全崩溃的边缘。
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In addition, there is a risk of “load undersupply” due to the planned shutdown of the last three nuclear power plants, so that in certain areas the entire electricity demand of Germany can no longer be covered. Then large electricity consumers such as industrial companies would have to be switched off voluntarily or by force.
此外，由于计划关闭最后三座核电站，存在“负荷不足”的风险，因此在某些地区，德国的整个电力需求无法再得到满足。那么，工业企业等大型用电企业将不得不自愿或强行切断电源。
此外，由于计划关闭最后三座核电站，存在“负荷不足”的风险，因此在某些地区，德国的整个电力需求无法再得到满足。那么，工业企业等大型用电企业将不得不自愿或强行切断电源。
Moreover, the population hardly follows the recommendations of the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK). As recently as July, the ill-informed German Minister of Economics Robert Habeck declared: “The fact is: we currently have a gas problem, not an electricity problem.” At the time, the statement was part of his propaganda strategy to prevent the continued operation of the three remaining German nuclear power plants.
此外，人们几乎不会遵守联邦民防和灾害援助办公室(BBK)的建议。就在今年7月，消息不灵通的德国经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克宣称:“事实是：我们目前面临的是天然气问题，而不是电力问题。”当时，这一声明是他阻止德国其余三座核电站继续运行的宣传策略的一部分。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
此外，人们几乎不会遵守联邦民防和灾害援助办公室(BBK)的建议。就在今年7月，消息不灵通的德国经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克宣称:“事实是：我们目前面临的是天然气问题，而不是电力问题。”当时，这一声明是他阻止德国其余三座核电站继续运行的宣传策略的一部分。
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Thus, Habeck pushed hundreds of thousands of citizens to buy fan heaters, which DStGB boss Landsberg now fears will finish off the German power grid. The nationwide “Warning Day”, on which the functioning of the civil protection measures is to be tested by means of a test alarm, will take place this year on December 8 – although it is actually scheduled for the second Thursday in September every year.
因此，哈贝克推动数十万市民购买暖风机，DStGB老板兰德斯伯格现在担心这将终结德国电网。今年的全国“预警日”将在12月8日举行，以测试警报的方式测试民防措施的功能，但实际上定于每年9月的第二个星期四。
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因此，哈贝克推动数十万市民购买暖风机，DStGB老板兰德斯伯格现在担心这将终结德国电网。今年的全国“预警日”将在12月8日举行，以测试警报的方式测试民防措施的功能，但实际上定于每年9月的第二个星期四。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Civil protection failing
民防失败
民防失败
The last attempt two years ago, on September 10, 2020, failed miserably because not even the warning apps worked. In the event of an actual catastrophe, many citizens were not warned at all (similar to what happened three quarters of a year later in the Ahr Valley and in southern North Rhine-Westphalia during the flood of the century).
上一次尝试是在两年前的2020年9月10日，失败得一塌糊涂，因为连预警APP都不管用。在真正发生灾难的情况下，许多市民根本没有得到警告(类似于四分之三年后发生在阿尔河谷，以及世纪大洪水期间发生在北莱茵-威斯特法伦州南部的情况)。
上一次尝试是在两年前的2020年9月10日，失败得一塌糊涂，因为连预警APP都不管用。在真正发生灾难的情况下，许多市民根本没有得到警告(类似于四分之三年后发生在阿尔河谷，以及世纪大洪水期间发生在北莱茵-威斯特法伦州南部的情况)。
The Ministry of the Interior had described the test alarm as “failed”. A spokesman for the Munich fire department said at the time that there had been no sirens in the city for years because they had been removed after the end of the Cold War. The same applies to large parts of Berlin.
内政部称这个测试警报“失败了”。慕尼黑消防部门的一名发言人当时表示，这座城市已经多年没有警报器了，因为它们在冷战结束后被拆除了。柏林的大部分地区也是如此。
内政部称这个测试警报“失败了”。慕尼黑消防部门的一名发言人当时表示，这座城市已经多年没有警报器了，因为它们在冷战结束后被拆除了。柏林的大部分地区也是如此。
In 2021, the warning day was completely dispensed with because the BBK was supposed to set up a “comprehensive test landscape” beforehand . This year’s warning day has been moved to December to accommodate Cell Broadcast testing. This is a system in which all mobile phone users who are in the area of a radio cell at a certain time receive a message that looks like an SMS. Unlike the warning apps “Nina” and “Katwarn”, which failed in 2020, people without smartphones are also reached.
2021年，因为人们以为BBK提前设置了“综合测试形势”，因此该警告日完全取消了。今年的警告日已移至12月，以适应手机广播测试。在这个系统中，所有在特定时间处于无线蜂窝区域内的手机用户都会收到一条类似短信的信息。与2020年失败的预警应用“Nina”和“Katwarn”不同，没有智能手机的人也能收到警告。
2021年，因为人们以为BBK提前设置了“综合测试形势”，因此该警告日完全取消了。今年的警告日已移至12月，以适应手机广播测试。在这个系统中，所有在特定时间处于无线蜂窝区域内的手机用户都会收到一条类似短信的信息。与2020年失败的预警应用“Nina”和“Katwarn”不同，没有智能手机的人也能收到警告。
Given the current situation in Germany, one can only hope that at least this system will work.
考虑到德国目前的情况，我们只能希望至少这个体系能发挥作用。
考虑到德国目前的情况，我们只能希望至少这个体系能发挥作用。
评论翻译
JASHIKO_
I find this interesting as I have seen regular periods of up to 7 days without water or power after massive storms (cyclones hurricanes, etc) and there have never been any deaths related to the power or water shortages caused by them. Only ever the storm itself.
我觉得这个报道很有趣，因为我曾见过在大规模风暴(飓风等)之后，有长达7天的时间没有水或电，但从来没有人因风暴造成的电力或水短缺而死亡。只有人死于风暴本身。
I find this interesting as I have seen regular periods of up to 7 days without water or power after massive storms (cyclones hurricanes, etc) and there have never been any deaths related to the power or water shortages caused by them. Only ever the storm itself.
我觉得这个报道很有趣，因为我曾见过在大规模风暴(飓风等)之后，有长达7天的时间没有水或电，但从来没有人因风暴造成的电力或水短缺而死亡。只有人死于风暴本身。
96 hours in winter might be a little bit different however people should have plenty of winter gear and clothing where they live. You just put on a few layers of winter clothes and jackets then wrap yourself in a blanket or 2. All stuff people generally have anyway. German winters are mild for the most part (at least the last few years have been)
冬天的96个小时可能有点不同，但是人们应该在居住的地方储备了足够的冬季装备和衣服。你只需要穿上几层冬天的衣服和夹克，然后用一条或两条毯子把自己裹起来。人们通常都有这些东西。德国的冬天大部分是温和的(至少过去几年是这样)。
冬天的96个小时可能有点不同，但是人们应该在居住的地方储备了足够的冬季装备和衣服。你只需要穿上几层冬天的衣服和夹克，然后用一条或两条毯子把自己裹起来。人们通常都有这些东西。德国的冬天大部分是温和的(至少过去几年是这样)。
On top of this Germans are generally a civilized bunch as well so I'm curious if it is the non-native germans who have issues and end up rioting etc. At first, I thought the homeless would have a lot of problems but they honestly have the most experience with this so probably don't make up much of the numbers...
除此之外，德国人通常也是一群文明人，所以我很好奇，是不是外来的德国人有问题，最终引发了骚乱等等。一开始，我以为无家可归的人会有很多问题，但说实话，他们在这方面最有经验，所以可能不占大多数……
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
除此之外，德国人通常也是一群文明人，所以我很好奇，是不是外来的德国人有问题，最终引发了骚乱等等。一开始，我以为无家可归的人会有很多问题，但说实话，他们在这方面最有经验，所以可能不占大多数……
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Stefano_Zebra
In places where there are cyclones or hurricanes people are also accustomed and prepared to power outages, how many years (or decades) has the European citizen not seen a prolonged blackout?
在有气旋或飓风的地方，人们也习惯并为停电做好了准备，欧洲公民有多少年(或几十年)没有见过长时间的停电?
In places where there are cyclones or hurricanes people are also accustomed and prepared to power outages, how many years (or decades) has the European citizen not seen a prolonged blackout?
在有气旋或飓风的地方，人们也习惯并为停电做好了准备，欧洲公民有多少年(或几十年)没有见过长时间的停电?
JASHIKO_
That is of course the other aspect of it. but as shit as not having power is, it's better than not having water. Not having water is a nightmare in comparison. I think the longest power outage I've seen here in the last 6 years was about 2 hours. and that was limited to my building which had a fault.
这当然是另一方面。虽然没电很糟糕，但总比没水好。相比之下，没有水就是一场噩梦。我想在过去的6年里，我在这里见过最长的停电时间大约是2小时。而且仅限于我那栋有故障的大楼。
That is of course the other aspect of it. but as shit as not having power is, it's better than not having water. Not having water is a nightmare in comparison. I think the longest power outage I've seen here in the last 6 years was about 2 hours. and that was limited to my building which had a fault.
这当然是另一方面。虽然没电很糟糕，但总比没水好。相比之下，没有水就是一场噩梦。我想在过去的6年里，我在这里见过最长的停电时间大约是2小时。而且仅限于我那栋有故障的大楼。
Mischeese
This will be the problem. Here in the U.K. we’ve not had rolling blackouts since the early 1970s. People weren’t even prepared for the shops being shut last Monday because of the Queens funeral. Pretty much everything reopened at 4-5pm. And people were freaking out because they couldn’t buy milk and bread for 12 hours. It’s going to get messy if there are regular power cuts, we just aren’t geared for it and no one is telling them to be prepared.
这就是问题所在。在英国，自20世纪70年代初以来，我们就没有发生过轮流停电。人们甚至没有对上周一因女王的葬礼而关闭的商店做好准备。下午4点到5点，几乎所有的店都重新开张了。人们都吓坏了，因为他们12小时都买不到牛奶和面包。如果经常停电，情况会变得很混乱，我们没有为此做好准备，也没有人告诉我们要做好准备。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
This will be the problem. Here in the U.K. we’ve not had rolling blackouts since the early 1970s. People weren’t even prepared for the shops being shut last Monday because of the Queens funeral. Pretty much everything reopened at 4-5pm. And people were freaking out because they couldn’t buy milk and bread for 12 hours. It’s going to get messy if there are regular power cuts, we just aren’t geared for it and no one is telling them to be prepared.
这就是问题所在。在英国，自20世纪70年代初以来，我们就没有发生过轮流停电。人们甚至没有对上周一因女王的葬礼而关闭的商店做好准备。下午4点到5点，几乎所有的店都重新开张了。人们都吓坏了，因为他们12小时都买不到牛奶和面包。如果经常停电，情况会变得很混乱，我们没有为此做好准备，也没有人告诉我们要做好准备。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Stefano_Zebra
I have come to the conclusion that telling people to prepare is a waste of time.
我得出的结论是，告诉人们准备是浪费时间。
I have come to the conclusion that telling people to prepare is a waste of time.
我得出的结论是，告诉人们准备是浪费时间。
95% of them will not listen to you, I think there is some sort of "psychological rejection" that something like this can happen.
95%的人不会听你的，我认为对于可能会发生这种事情，人们存在一种“心理排斥”。
95%的人不会听你的，我认为对于可能会发生这种事情，人们存在一种“心理排斥”。
Many say they can't afford to spend money on a water filter and a lithium-ion battery lantern but there is always money for an aperitif or restaurant on the weekend.
许多人说，他们买不起滤水器和锂离子电池灯笼，但他们总有钱在周末喝一杯开胃酒或去餐厅。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
许多人说，他们买不起滤水器和锂离子电池灯笼，但他们总有钱在周末喝一杯开胃酒或去餐厅。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Do they think they can order on Amazon the same day or the day after the disaster?
他们认为他们可以在灾难当天或灾后第二天在亚马逊上订购吗?
他们认为他们可以在灾难当天或灾后第二天在亚马逊上订购吗?
MasterTater02
Do they think they can order on Amazon the same day or the day after the disaster?
In my experience, they most certainly do.
根据我的经验，他们肯定会这样想。
Do they think they can order on Amazon the same day or the day after the disaster?
In my experience, they most certainly do.
根据我的经验，他们肯定会这样想。
Prepperpoints2Ponder
Normalcy bias
正常化偏误。
Normalcy bias
正常化偏误。
VexMajoris
I have come to the conclusion that telling people to prepare is a waste of time.
I reached a similar conclusion years back. Most people are simply not mentally capable - for whatever reason, it's not lack of intelligence in many cases - of really processing and actualizing the possibility of disaster. I personally know people who ran out of TP during 2020 because they insisted it was all overblown. Do they stock extra TP today? No.
几年前我也得出了类似的结论。大多数人在心理上都没有能力真正处理和实现灾难的可能性——不管出于什么原因，在很多情况下并不是缺乏智力——我本人就认识一些这种人。他们在2020年用光了厕纸，因为他们坚持认为一切都被夸大了。他们今天有多余的厕纸吗? 不。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I have come to the conclusion that telling people to prepare is a waste of time.
I reached a similar conclusion years back. Most people are simply not mentally capable - for whatever reason, it's not lack of intelligence in many cases - of really processing and actualizing the possibility of disaster. I personally know people who ran out of TP during 2020 because they insisted it was all overblown. Do they stock extra TP today? No.
几年前我也得出了类似的结论。大多数人在心理上都没有能力真正处理和实现灾难的可能性——不管出于什么原因，在很多情况下并不是缺乏智力——我本人就认识一些这种人。他们在2020年用光了厕纸，因为他们坚持认为一切都被夸大了。他们今天有多余的厕纸吗? 不。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Do they think they can order on Amazon the same day or the day after the disaster?
Yes. They'll panic and buy stuff without a plan or any thought process beyond fear. This is how grocery stores get stripped right before a bad storm or incoming hurricane. It's why the first things to go are the perishables that need refrigeration, like milk, eggs, etc. You know, the things that will go bad as soon as the power goes out.
是的。他们会惊慌失措，毫无计划地买东西，除了恐惧，没有任何思考过程。这就是杂货店在暴风雨或即将到来的飓风来临前被抢购一空的原因。这就是为什么首先要吃掉的是需要冷藏的易腐食品，比如牛奶、鸡蛋等。你知道的，就是那些一旦停电就会坏掉的东西。
Yes. They'll panic and buy stuff without a plan or any thought process beyond fear. This is how grocery stores get stripped right before a bad storm or incoming hurricane. It's why the first things to go are the perishables that need refrigeration, like milk, eggs, etc. You know, the things that will go bad as soon as the power goes out.
是的。他们会惊慌失措，毫无计划地买东西，除了恐惧，没有任何思考过程。这就是杂货店在暴风雨或即将到来的飓风来临前被抢购一空的原因。这就是为什么首先要吃掉的是需要冷藏的易腐食品，比如牛奶、鸡蛋等。你知道的，就是那些一旦停电就会坏掉的东西。
Stefano_Zebra
Agree
Here 2 years ago the TP ended when some newspaper articles appeared and the TV talked about it. People need to imitate people. If they see someone buying certain items or the TV says they all buy certain things they will run to do it.
同意。
2年前，当一些报纸文章出现，电视也在谈论厕纸时，厕纸就脱销了。人们需要模仿别人。如果他们看到有人买某种东西，或者电视上说大家都在买某种东西，他们就会跑去买。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Agree
Here 2 years ago the TP ended when some newspaper articles appeared and the TV talked about it. People need to imitate people. If they see someone buying certain items or the TV says they all buy certain things they will run to do it.
同意。
2年前，当一些报纸文章出现，电视也在谈论厕纸时，厕纸就脱销了。人们需要模仿别人。如果他们看到有人买某种东西，或者电视上说大家都在买某种东西，他们就会跑去买。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Nonpareilchocolate
Do they stock extra TP today? No.
Don't you love it? For years I've tried to get my relatives to store more than an extra can of coffee, but no dice. "The store's down the street. It'll be fine." I've stop trying.
他们今天会多囤厕纸吗? 不会。
你不喜欢吗? 多年来，我一直试图让我的亲戚多存一罐咖啡，但没有成功。“商店就在这条街上。没事的。”我不说了。
Do they stock extra TP today? No.
Don't you love it? For years I've tried to get my relatives to store more than an extra can of coffee, but no dice. "The store's down the street. It'll be fine." I've stop trying.
他们今天会多囤厕纸吗? 不会。
你不喜欢吗? 多年来，我一直试图让我的亲戚多存一罐咖啡，但没有成功。“商店就在这条街上。没事的。”我不说了。
Kdzoom35
Its probably not worth the anxiety, they will probably still survive all be it with some panic. And when some real SHTF scenario hits most of us will be screwed preping or not. So its probably better to live in the Bliss of Ignorance.
这可能不值得焦虑，他们在一些恐慌中可能仍然会活下来。当真正的大条事件发生时，我们中的大多数人无论是否准备都会完蛋。所以最好还是生活在无知的幸福中。
Its probably not worth the anxiety, they will probably still survive all be it with some panic. And when some real SHTF scenario hits most of us will be screwed preping or not. So its probably better to live in the Bliss of Ignorance.
这可能不值得焦虑，他们在一些恐慌中可能仍然会活下来。当真正的大条事件发生时，我们中的大多数人无论是否准备都会完蛋。所以最好还是生活在无知的幸福中。
Nonpareilchocolate
people were freaking out because they couldn’t buy milk and bread for 12 hours.
Jeez. I'd be ashamed if I were that ill prepared - especially if I had a family to take care of. And the funeral didn't come out of the blue; people had time to get another gallon of milk and a loaf of bread before the funeral if that was their issue.
呀。如果我准备得那么差，我会感到羞愧的——尤其是如果我还要照顾家人的话。要命的事情也不是突如其来的；如果是他们的问题，人们在坏事发生前，还有时间再买一加仑牛奶和一条面包。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
people were freaking out because they couldn’t buy milk and bread for 12 hours.
Jeez. I'd be ashamed if I were that ill prepared - especially if I had a family to take care of. And the funeral didn't come out of the blue; people had time to get another gallon of milk and a loaf of bread before the funeral if that was their issue.
呀。如果我准备得那么差，我会感到羞愧的——尤其是如果我还要照顾家人的话。要命的事情也不是突如其来的；如果是他们的问题，人们在坏事发生前，还有时间再买一加仑牛奶和一条面包。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Still_Water_4759
They said it would be mostly the elderly, because carehomes can't be managed (or might even be abandoned). And water would stop coming way too soon.
他们说，死者将主要是老年人，因为养老院无法应对(甚至可能被遗弃)。而且很快就会停水。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
They said it would be mostly the elderly, because carehomes can't be managed (or might even be abandoned). And water would stop coming way too soon.
他们说，死者将主要是老年人，因为养老院无法应对(甚至可能被遗弃)。而且很快就会停水。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
AldusPrime
Same. My Big Berkey wasn't cheap, but in a bad situation it could save our lives. Given that I use it every day, now, it feels like it was a great purchase.
相同。我的Big Berkey不便宜，但在糟糕的情况下，它可以救我们的命。考虑到我每天都在用它，现在感觉买的很划算。
Same. My Big Berkey wasn't cheap, but in a bad situation it could save our lives. Given that I use it every day, now, it feels like it was a great purchase.
相同。我的Big Berkey不便宜，但在糟糕的情况下，它可以救我们的命。考虑到我每天都在用它，现在感觉买的很划算。
DeliciousCourage7490
My wife thinks I'm crazy, but whenever the power goes out, I fill up the bath tub.
我妻子认为我疯了，但只要没电，我就会把浴缸里的水装满。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
My wife thinks I'm crazy, but whenever the power goes out, I fill up the bath tub.
我妻子认为我疯了，但只要没电，我就会把浴缸里的水装满。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Stefano_Zebra
It is a good idea, you must not only think about the water to drink but also about what is necessary for washing or perhaps rinsing dishes.
这是一个好主意，你不仅要考虑喝的水，还要考虑洗碗或漂洗碗需要什么。
It is a good idea, you must not only think about the water to drink but also about what is necessary for washing or perhaps rinsing dishes.
这是一个好主意，你不仅要考虑喝的水，还要考虑洗碗或漂洗碗需要什么。
In case of emergency, if you have a water boiler, that too can be a source to draw from.
在紧急情况下，如果你有一个水锅炉，它也可以是一个水源。
在紧急情况下，如果你有一个水锅炉，它也可以是一个水源。
Loeden
And for flushing toilets. A bucket of water will force a flush.
还可以用于冲厕所，一桶水可以冲一次。
And for flushing toilets. A bucket of water will force a flush.
还可以用于冲厕所，一桶水可以冲一次。
Kdzoom35
The top of your toilet is also clean water.
马桶顶部的水也是干净的。
The top of your toilet is also clean water.
马桶顶部的水也是干净的。
kingofthesofas
this really saved us from having to use snow to flush toilets in the Texas freeze.
真是救了老命了，我们不必在德克萨斯的严寒中用雪来冲马桶。
this really saved us from having to use snow to flush toilets in the Texas freeze.
真是救了老命了，我们不必在德克萨斯的严寒中用雪来冲马桶。
mOfN81
she thinks that you are crazy, but god forbid one time you will be in a position that you will need clean water she will love you for doing it (certain blackouts will bring water treatment plants and pumps to a full stop)
她认为你疯了，但如果当你有一次需要干净的水，她会喜欢你这样做的(某些停电会使水处理厂和水泵完全停止)。
she thinks that you are crazy, but god forbid one time you will be in a position that you will need clean water she will love you for doing it (certain blackouts will bring water treatment plants and pumps to a full stop)
她认为你疯了，但如果当你有一次需要干净的水，她会喜欢你这样做的(某些停电会使水处理厂和水泵完全停止)。
4BigData
What method can be used to turn rainwater in barrels into driving water besides filtering, Clorox, boiling...
除了过滤，高乐氏，煮沸，还有什么方法可以把桶里的雨水变成可用的水呢?
What method can be used to turn rainwater in barrels into driving water besides filtering, Clorox, boiling...
除了过滤，高乐氏，煮沸，还有什么方法可以把桶里的雨水变成可用的水呢?
Wytch78
UV light
紫外灯。
UV light
紫外灯。
4BigData
Wow what device do you recommend?
哇，你推荐什么设备?
Wow what device do you recommend?
哇，你推荐什么设备?
Wytch78
No idea, haven’t tried it, only heard about it.
不知道，没试过，只是听说过。
No idea, haven’t tried it, only heard about it.
不知道，没试过，只是听说过。
Stefano_Zebra
I have never used those products but the most famous is Steripen.
我从未使用过这些产品，但最有名的是Steripen。
I have never used those products but the most famous is Steripen.
我从未使用过这些产品，但最有名的是Steripen。
To consider that it is an expensive product, a battery may be required (it is good to have one or more spare batteries) - the battery runtime fluctuates between 50 and 150 uses.
考虑到它是一个昂贵的产品，可能需要一个电池(最好有一个或多个备用电池)-电池运行时间在50到150次之间波动。
考虑到它是一个昂贵的产品，可能需要一个电池(最好有一个或多个备用电池)-电池运行时间在50到150次之间波动。
There are various Steripen models with various types of batteries. If I had to choose I would buy the model that uses AA batteries (for their availability)
Steripen有各种各样的型号和各种类型的电池。如果我必须选择，我会买使用AA电池的型号(因为它们的可用性)。
Steripen有各种各样的型号和各种类型的电池。如果我必须选择，我会买使用AA电池的型号(因为它们的可用性)。
But for the supply of batteries I would use AA Energizer Lithium batteries, they work well even in frost, they have a very long storage, no problem of acid leaks.
但对于电池的供应，我会使用AA Energizer锂电池，它们即使在霜冻中也能很好地工作，它们有很长的储存时间，没有酸泄漏的问题。
但对于电池的供应，我会使用AA Energizer锂电池，它们即使在霜冻中也能很好地工作，它们有很长的储存时间，没有酸泄漏的问题。
The UV light is not eternal, depending on the model, the life of the bulb is between 3000 and 8000 uses.
紫外光不是永恒的，根据型号的不同，灯泡的寿命在3000到8000次之间。
紫外光不是永恒的，根据型号的不同，灯泡的寿命在3000到8000次之间。
Stefano_Zebra
Tnx But however (personal opinion) I would never rely on a single solution like that.
谢谢，但是(就我个人而言)，我绝不会依赖这样的单一解决方案。
Tnx But however (personal opinion) I would never rely on a single solution like that.
谢谢，但是(就我个人而言)，我绝不会依赖这样的单一解决方案。
UV water Filter may be ok but I would still prefer to have one or more traditional filters in my bag like the Sawyer Mini or the LifeStraw.
紫外线滤水器可能是可以的，但我还是喜欢在我的包里有一个或多个传统的过滤器，如Sawyer Mini或LifeStraw。
紫外线滤水器可能是可以的，但我还是喜欢在我的包里有一个或多个传统的过滤器，如Sawyer Mini或LifeStraw。
Maybe purifying the water with UV rays and then drinking it anyway with the filter. (Steripen does not filter mud or dirt)
也许用紫外线净化水，然后用过滤器饮用。(Steripen不能过滤泥浆或污垢)。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
也许用紫外线净化水，然后用过滤器饮用。(Steripen不能过滤泥浆或污垢)。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Also, something that has electrical components or a bulb can be damaged or broken more easily.
此外，有电子元件或灯泡的东西更容易损坏或打破。
此外，有电子元件或灯泡的东西更容易损坏或打破。
4BigData
I have about 10 4 gallon bottles and 4 rainwater barrels
我有10个4加仑的瓶子和4个雨水桶。
I have about 10 4 gallon bottles and 4 rainwater barrels
我有10个4加仑的瓶子和4个雨水桶。
DwarvenRedshirt
It wasn't really clear to me. It looks like they just state the conclusions from the simulation in the first paragraph, then talk about other things (speculations, other simulations/tests, etc) in the rest of the article.
我不是很清楚。看起来他们只是在第一段陈述模拟的结论，然后在文章的其余部分讨论其他事情(推测、其他模拟/测试等)。
It wasn't really clear to me. It looks like they just state the conclusions from the simulation in the first paragraph, then talk about other things (speculations, other simulations/tests, etc) in the rest of the article.
我不是很清楚。看起来他们只是在第一段陈述模拟的结论，然后在文章的其余部分讨论其他事情(推测、其他模拟/测试等)。
So there's no details as to the parameters of the simulation to say how realistic it is.
所以没有关于这场模拟的细节参数来说明它有多真实。
所以没有关于这场模拟的细节参数来说明它有多真实。
Stefano_Zebra
That's right, little information.
没错，信息很少。
That's right, little information.
没错，信息很少。
But it is reasonable to think that the panic would be very high.
但我们有理由认为，恐慌会非常严重。
但我们有理由认为，恐慌会非常严重。
People are psychologically exhausted, three years of pandemic, economic and energy crisis, a possible war in evolution ..
人们的心理已经疲惫不堪，三年的流行病，经济和能源危机，一场战争正在酝酿……
人们的心理已经疲惫不堪，三年的流行病，经济和能源危机，一场战争正在酝酿……
DwarvenRedshirt
Yeah, but it's one thing to say panic would be high, it's another to say "We predict that X% will then go out and loot and pillage" when it hasn't happened in that population before.
是的，但说恐慌程度会很高是一回事，说“我们预测X%的人会出去抢劫”是另一回事，而在这一人群中从未发生过这种事。
Yeah, but it's one thing to say panic would be high, it's another to say "We predict that X% will then go out and loot and pillage" when it hasn't happened in that population before.
是的，但说恐慌程度会很高是一回事，说“我们预测X%的人会出去抢劫”是另一回事，而在这一人群中从未发生过这种事。
Stefano_Zebra
In fact, plundering and looting (in the dark and probably in the cold) is a difficult undertaking.
事实上，劫掠(在黑暗中，可能在寒冷中)是一项艰巨的任务。
In fact, plundering and looting (in the dark and probably in the cold) is a difficult undertaking.
事实上，劫掠(在黑暗中，可能在寒冷中)是一项艰巨的任务。
DwarvenRedshirt
Yeah, riots usually don't happen in the middle of winter. For some reason, they don't like going out in the cold. Although, that's if the power and gas are still working.
是啊，骚乱通常不会在隆冬发生。出于某种原因，他们不喜欢在寒冷的天气里外出。不过，那是在电力和煤气还能用的情况下。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yeah, riots usually don't happen in the middle of winter. For some reason, they don't like going out in the cold. Although, that's if the power and gas are still working.
是啊，骚乱通常不会在隆冬发生。出于某种原因，他们不喜欢在寒冷的天气里外出。不过，那是在电力和煤气还能用的情况下。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
RockyMtnAnonymo
I missed the word 'simulation' and was really worried/confused there for a second. Oof.
我看漏了“模拟”这个词，真的很担心/困惑了一秒钟。吁。
I missed the word 'simulation' and was really worried/confused there for a second. Oof.
我看漏了“模拟”这个词，真的很担心/困惑了一秒钟。吁。
mannDog74
What kind of source is this
这是什么鬼信源？
What kind of source is this
这是什么鬼信源？
ChanceAd8948
Man I'm glad I grew up in the Balkans, more specifically Bosnia. People there are quite used to temporary outages and know what to do. I feel here in the west people have no clue, and as someone said people look at you like you are crazy when you say obvious things regarding crisis handling.
天，我很高兴我在巴尔干长大，更确切地说，是波斯尼亚。那里的人们很习惯暂时的停电，也知道该怎么做。我觉得在西方，人们对此毫无头绪，就像有人说的，当你说一些关于危机处理的显而易见的事情时，人们会看着你，好像你疯了一样。
Man I'm glad I grew up in the Balkans, more specifically Bosnia. People there are quite used to temporary outages and know what to do. I feel here in the west people have no clue, and as someone said people look at you like you are crazy when you say obvious things regarding crisis handling.
天，我很高兴我在巴尔干长大，更确切地说，是波斯尼亚。那里的人们很习惯暂时的停电，也知道该怎么做。我觉得在西方，人们对此毫无头绪，就像有人说的，当你说一些关于危机处理的显而易见的事情时，人们会看着你，好像你疯了一样。
AraNormer
That "simulation" looks to me like it was thought up by somebody without common sense. Sure, it sounds downright terrible that after 24 hours without electricity livestock is gone and looters are hoarding tp, canned goods and flatscreen TV's, but when you think about it... How believable that scenario is in a modern western society? How likely it is, that in the heart of Europe, after mere 96 hours, it's Soylent Green time? I feel like there's an issue with given time frx. Hours? Were they perhaps originally talking about days, or even weeks?
在我看来，这种“模拟”就像是某个没有常识的人想出来的。当然，听起来非常可怕，在24小时没有电后，牲畜死了了，掠夺者囤积卫生纸、罐头食品和平板电视，但当你想想……在现代西方社会，这种情景有多可信? 在欧洲的中心，仅仅96小时后，就到了《超世纪谍杀案》时间，有多大可能? 我觉得这个时间框架有点问题。小时? 他们最初讨论的是几天，还是几周?
That "simulation" looks to me like it was thought up by somebody without common sense. Sure, it sounds downright terrible that after 24 hours without electricity livestock is gone and looters are hoarding tp, canned goods and flatscreen TV's, but when you think about it... How believable that scenario is in a modern western society? How likely it is, that in the heart of Europe, after mere 96 hours, it's Soylent Green time? I feel like there's an issue with given time frx. Hours? Were they perhaps originally talking about days, or even weeks?
在我看来，这种“模拟”就像是某个没有常识的人想出来的。当然，听起来非常可怕，在24小时没有电后，牲畜死了了，掠夺者囤积卫生纸、罐头食品和平板电视，但当你想想……在现代西方社会，这种情景有多可信? 在欧洲的中心，仅仅96小时后，就到了《超世纪谍杀案》时间，有多大可能? 我觉得这个时间框架有点问题。小时? 他们最初讨论的是几天，还是几周?
Nonpareilchocolate
Maybe I'm missing something. In the US, we have hurricanes, ice storms, etc. that can leave the power out for days or even weeks. I'm pretty sure 400 people don't die in Miami or Boston if they don't have tap water.
也许我漏掉了什么。我们美国有飓风、冰风暴等，可以让电力中断几天甚至几周。我很确定迈阿密或波士顿如果停了自来水不会有400人死亡。
Maybe I'm missing something. In the US, we have hurricanes, ice storms, etc. that can leave the power out for days or even weeks. I'm pretty sure 400 people don't die in Miami or Boston if they don't have tap water.
也许我漏掉了什么。我们美国有飓风、冰风暴等，可以让电力中断几天甚至几周。我很确定迈阿密或波士顿如果停了自来水不会有400人死亡。
Do people not store water in Germany? Wouldn't there be some bottled water left in the stores? Are there no big water trucks from emergency preparedness or their national guard? You wouldn't think 4 days would take out 400 people.
德国人不储存水吗? 难道商店里不会还有瓶装水吗? 应急准备和国民警卫队没有大型水车吗? 我觉得4天不可能干掉400个人。
德国人不储存水吗? 难道商店里不会还有瓶装水吗? 应急准备和国民警卫队没有大型水车吗? 我觉得4天不可能干掉400个人。
mOfN81
When there is a "simulation", you can bet that those blackouts are already planned.
当出现一个“模拟”时，我可以打赌，那些停电已经计划好了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
When there is a "simulation", you can bet that those blackouts are already planned.
当出现一个“模拟”时，我可以打赌，那些停电已经计划好了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
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