如果纳粹德国从未输掉战争,世界会是什么样子?(四)
2022-11-14 翻译熊 5952
正文翻译

What would the world be like if Nazi Germany had never lost the war?

如果纳粹德国从未输掉战争,世界会是什么样子?

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评论翻译
Elijah Kourt
That exactly is the question that inspired Philip Dick into writing his great novel, The Man in the High Castle, and furthermore led to the creation of the homonymous television series of which I am a great fan: The Man in the High Castle (TV Series 2015– )
With a glimpse over the other answers, it becomes pretty clear how Europe would have looked like.
Nevertheless, here is a map of what the USA could have looked like had the Nazis been the first ones to invent the nuclear bomb:
Not a world I would have liked to live in.

正是这个问题启发了菲利普·迪克写出了他伟大的小说《高堡奇人》,并进一步促成了同名电视剧的创作,我非常喜欢这部电视剧:《高堡奇人》。
看一下其他答案,我们就能清楚地知道欧洲会是什么样子了。
尽管如此,这里有一张地图,展示了如果纳粹是第一个发明核弹的人,美国将会是什么样子: 我可不想生活在这样的世界里。
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Yasser Hamdan
Life would have been really good, if you were white.

如果你当时是白人,你的生活会很好。

Pierre Henry
Well, Slavs are "white" and they would certainly not have had a good time !

斯拉夫人是“白人”,但他们当时肯定算不上好时光!

Yasser Hamdan
Slavs aren't Aryan. White=Aryan and Nordic.

斯拉夫人不是雅利安人。白人是雅利安和北欧人。

Edmund Kemper
True, but the term white actually should only apply to slavs, they literally are the whittest people on the planet

没错,但是“白人”这个词只适用于斯拉夫人,他们真的是这个星球上最白的人。

Michael Meissner
Germany was nowhere near close to finishing the atomic bomb during WWII. Besides being scientifically far behind the Manhattan Project, they also lacked the raw resources, like uranium-235 or heavy water (to produce plutonium), that were necessary to construct an atom bomb. If the Nazis had won, it's quite likely that no nuclear weapon would have ever been used against a nation in war.

二战期间,德国离完成原子弹还差得远呢。除了在科学上远远落后于曼哈顿计划之外,他们还缺乏制造原子弹所必需的原材料,如铀-235或重水(用于生产钚)。如果纳粹赢了,很可能不会有核武器用于战争中的国家。

Alexander Finnegan
Hitler and the Nazis intended to conquer Europe and the Soviet unx. Boundaries would be redrawn. Hitler believes in ethno-nationalism. Aryans were the “pure” race that was superior. Other races were considered inferior. Jews and communists were slated for total extermination. Disabled people, Romanis, people with malformations, and others were to be exterminated to make room for the “master race.” Those not exterminated would become slaves.
Forced labor camps were used. The Nazis rented out slave labor to German corporations like Bayer and Volkswagen. Hubert Bucke devised the “Hunger Plan,” which was to starve up to 30 million Slavs after Operation Barbarossa to feed the Germans since their food supplies were unreliable. There were many Nazi supporters in the Eastern Bloc nations. Some even collaborated with the Nazis to round up Jews to be sent to the extermination camps. The support for fascism was so strong that Stalin had to move Polish and other nationalist factions away from there homes just to keep the peace.
If Germany won map

希特勒和纳粹企图征服欧洲和苏联。边界将被重新划定。希特勒信奉民族主义。雅利安人是优等的“纯粹”种族。其他种族被认为是低人一等的。犹太人和共产主义者被列为彻底灭绝的对象。残疾人、罗马人、有畸形的人以及其他一些人将被消灭,为“优等民族”腾出空间。那些没有被消灭的人将成为奴隶。



强制劳改营被使用。纳粹将奴隶劳工出租给拜耳和大众等德国公司。
休伯特·巴克(Hubert Bucke)制定了“饥饿计划”,计划在巴巴罗萨行动后让3000万斯拉夫人挨饿,以养活德国人,因为德国人的食物供应不可靠。
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在东方集团国家中有许多纳粹的支持者。有些人甚至与纳粹合作,围捕犹太人,将他们送往灭绝集中营。对法西斯主义的支持是如此强烈,以至于斯大林不得不将波兰和其他民族主义派别从他们的家园迁离,以维持和平。
所以如果德国获胜了,地图会是这个样子:(见第一张图)



图:有趣的事实——希特勒计划屠掉莫斯科所有居民,然后用湖泊替代

Richard Manning
The most likely answer is that 2016 would look similar to our timeline… except in one key way. The original purpose of the Manhattan Project was for the US to develop the atomic bomb before Nazi Germany could—at the time, it wasn’t known that German scientists believed such a device to be infeasible—and the original plan was that it would be used against Germany.
Given the “Europe First” policy that the war was fought under, then, had Europe still been under Nazi control once our first atomic bombs had been prepared, they would have been used against German targets, rather than Japanese targets. If Britain was still independent, then B-29s would have flown from British bases to deliver them; if the UK had fallen, then the US would have rushed development of the B-36 and, once it was ready, started using it to attack Germany from North American bases. In either event, nuclear weapons would have been used as they became available to destroy Germany’s ability to fight and will to fight. The Army planned to use atomic weapons liberally; plans for the Invasion of Japan set for summer of 1946 would have used twelve atomic bombs—four dropped on the landing beaches in the hours before the invasion, and then eight more dropped on key cities after establishing a beachhead, to clear the way for the invasion forces.

最有可能的答案是,2016年看起来与我们的时间线相似,除了一个关键的方面。曼哈顿计划的最初目的是让美国赶在纳粹德国之前研制出原子弹——当时还不知道德国科学家认为这种装置是不可行的——最初的计划是用来对付德国。
考虑到战争是在“欧洲优先”的政策下进行的,那么,一旦我们的第一颗原子弹准备好,如果欧洲仍在纳粹的控制下,它们就会被用来对付德国,而不是日本。如果英国仍然是独立的,那么B -29轰炸机将从英国基地起飞运送它们;如果英国战败了,那么美国就会匆忙研制B-36,一旦准备就绪,就开始用它从北美基地攻击德国。在任何一种情况下,核武器都将被用来摧毁德国的战斗能力和战斗意志。陆军计划自由使用原子武器;1946年夏天的侵略日本计划将使用12颗原子弹,其中4颗在入侵前几个小时投在登陆海滩上,然后在建立滩头阵地后再投8颗在主要城市,为侵略军扫清道路。

The most likely scenario, then, is that several dozen major cities in Europe would have been nuked to destroy their value to the Germans, prior to either a second invasion of Europe (this time, preceded by heavy bombardment of the landing beaches with atomic bombs) or simply the collapse of the German economy and thus fall of the Nazi government. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, depending on how quickly the “island-hopping” campaign went, either the Allies would have invaded the Japanese Home Islands in 1946 (likely resulting in the complete destruction of the Japanese culture), or, if things bogged down, the submarine force would have been allowed to finish the job of starving Japan into surrender. There was no chance of the Allies accepting a peace with the Axis that left the Nazis in control of Europe, and the sheer scale of American industrial might (40% of the entire world’s manufacturing capability, even BEFORE our massive build-up of capacity during the war) combined with the massive manpower reserves of the US and USSR would have meant that, in the end, Germany would have lost the war—it’s just a matter of how many cities were reduced to radioactive wastelands, and exactly when each party surrendered.

那么,最有可能的情况是,在第二次入侵欧洲之前(这一次,在登陆海滩遭到原子弹的猛烈轰炸之前),或者是德国经济崩溃,从而导致纳粹政府垮台之前,欧洲的几十个主要城市将被核弹摧毁,摧毁它们对德国人的价值。
与此同时,在太平洋上(取决于“夺岛”战役进行得有多快),盟军要么在1946年入侵日本本土列岛(很可能导致日本文化的彻底毁灭),要么,如果事情陷入僵局,潜艇部队将被允许完成迫使日本投降的围困任务。
盟军没可能与轴心国达成和平,这回让纳粹控制了欧洲,而美国工业力量的规模(占整个世界制造业能力的40%,甚至在我们在战争期间大规模建立产能之前)加上美国和苏联的大量人力储备就意味着——最终,德国会输掉这场战争(这只是多少城市沦为放射性废物的问题),以及各方投降的确切时间。
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Anix Orov
This would heavily depend on who would succeed Hitler. No Nazi leader had exactly the same views as Hitler had.
If a type like Heidrich would assume power, the state would become more bureaucratic, ascetic and the ideology would lose its spirit. He would likely finalize the Germanization of the Soviet territory but would try to avoid new wars.
If Himmler would succeed, the ideology would shift to become more esoteric and mystic, possibly Christianity would have been abolished.
If Goering would succeed, the ideology would become more conservative and the elite's life would become more luxurious. There would be a lot of rallies and celebrations.
If somebody like Ribbentrop would succeed, an animosity against the USA would persist while he would try to make anti-US alliances in the East.
If Speer would succeed, the usage of slave labor and scientific research would be widened, a lot of construction and mega-projects commenced.
Goebbels most likely would continue most of the already conducted policy, but a lot of new wars possibly would unfold. He would lead Germany into total war with a lot of countries.

这在很大程度上取决于谁将接替希特勒。没有哪个纳粹领导人的观点与希特勒完全相同。
如果像海德里希这样的人掌权,国家将变得更加官僚主义、禁欲主义,意识形态将失去其精神。他可能会完成苏联领土的德国化,但会尽量避免新的战争。
如果希姆莱成功了,意识形态就会变得更加深奥和神秘,基督教可能就会被废除。
如果戈林成功了,意识形态将变得更加保守,精英的生活将变得更加奢华。
如果像里宾特洛甫这样的人成功了,对美国的仇恨就会持续下去,而他会试图在东方建立反美联盟。
如果施佩尔成功了,奴隶劳动的使用和科学研究将得到扩大,许多建筑和大型项目将开始。
戈培尔很可能会继续大部分已经实施的政策,但很多新的战争可能会展开。他将带领德国与许多国家展开全面战争。

Jörg Sprave
Nazi Germany IS still here today.
Yes, Adolf Hitler and his horrible Nazi party was removed and Germany was defeated. But not eradicated.
Modern day Germany isn’t just the legal successor of the “Deutsches Reich”. The highest German court (“Bundesverfassungsgericht”) made it very clear that the “Bundesrepublik Deutschland” is identical with the “Deutsches Reich”. Hence the new Germany took over full responsibility for the catastrophic and utterly evil things the Nazis did. But after the war Germany as a nation wasn’t permanently eradicated. Instead it gradually got back full self control until the reunification and finally the two plus four treaty (effective 1991) reinstated Germany’s full and official authority over it’s territories.
The allied forces removed a German government, not the German nation. This could indeed have been done differently. The German nation was just 75 years old in 1945 and the allies could simply have divided it’s territory, for example by giving the parts to the neighboring countries (like France, Poland, Italy, The Netherlands, Denmark and so on). This even happened in a way, but only on a small scale (Eastern Prussia and the Alsace, namely).

纳粹德国今天还在这里。
是的,阿道夫·希特勒和他可怕的纳粹党被赶下台了,德国被打败了。但并没有被根除。
现代德国不仅仅是“德意志帝国”的合法继承者。德国最高法院明确表示,“Bundesrepublik Deutschland”与“Deutsches Reich”完全相同。因此,新德国承担了纳粹所做的灾难性和完全邪恶的事情的全部责任。但战后德国作为一个国家并没有被永久消灭。相反,它逐渐恢复了完全的自我控制,直到统一,最终二加四条约(1991年生效)恢复了德国对其领土的完全和官方权威。
盟军推翻的是德国政府,而不是德意志民族。这确实可以用不同的方式来处理。1945年,德国只有75岁,同盟国可以直接分割它的领土,比如把部分领土分给邻国(如法国、波兰、意大利、荷兰、丹麦等)。这在某种程度上也发生过,但只是小规模的(即东普鲁士和阿尔萨斯)。
所以从历史上讲,纳粹统治只是德国147年历史中某个(犯罪)政府的12年任期。

Maybe your real question was/is if the Nazis would still rule Germany without the war? Not likely. Even an empire like the Soviet unx, with it’s unfathomable natural resources, was not able to cling to powers indefinably. Such administrations have the tendency to overplay their hands and/or spend too much money, which at some point leads to crashes, reforms or revolution. But it is not impossible that the Nazi party would still run Germany today. What a horrible imagination.
In a way even the “Nazi spirit” survived. When the cold war broke out, Germany was needed as a partner for the West, and the great majority of ex Nazi party members never had to face legal consequences. Many ex Nazis got into very powerful positions in the new administration and also in the new German military (“Bundeswehr”). In fact the majority of civil servants in the Germany of the fifties, even the sixties, had a Nazi history.
Some people say that this spirit still is palpable in parts of the German bureaucratic organizations, maybe because the high ranking officers usually sexted their own successors.

也许你真正的问题是,如果没有这场战争,纳粹是否还会统治德国?不太可能。即使是像苏联这样拥有深不可测的自然资源的帝国,也无法无限期地依附于权力。这样的政府倾向于高估自己的能力和/或花费过多的钱,这在某种程度上导致了崩溃、改革或革命。但纳粹党在今天仍然统治德国并非不可能。这是多么可怕的景象啊!
在某种程度上,甚至连“纳粹精神”都幸存了下来。冷战爆发时,西方需要德国作为合作伙伴,绝大多数前纳粹党成员从未面临法律后果。许多前纳粹分子在新政府和新的德国军队(“德国国防军”)中担任了非常重要的职位。事实上,德国50年代,甚至60年代的大多数公务员,都有纳粹历史。
有人说,这种精神在德国官僚机构的某些部分仍然很明显,可能是因为高级官员通常都是选择自己的继任者。

Werner Hoermann
To say that the “Nazi spirit” survived is akin to say that the “communist international spirit” still permeates Angela Merkel. After all, she was a high ranking functionary in the communist youth organization.
The vast majority of people in a country just wants to live their lives and survive. They are not interested in politics and if survival of their family requires getting along with the people holding power and to join their civic organizations, you do it.
On second thought though, in the case of Angela Merkel you may be right.

说“纳粹精神”幸存下来,就好比说“共产主义国际精神”仍渗透在安格拉·默克尔体内。毕竟,她曾是共产主义青年组织的高级官员。
一个国家的绝大多数人只想过自己的生活。他们对政治不感兴趣,如果他们的家庭的生存需要与掌权的人相处,并加入他们的公民组织,你就会去做。
不过仔细想想,就安格拉·默克尔而言,你可能是对的。

Ethan Carter
Nazi Germany prior to the war was actually popular amongst other countries, they had a lot of support, given more time they would have slowly swayed other countries to ally with them, Romania was an example. Keeping in mind the nazis only became unpopular late and after the war.
Citizens were very happy, industry enjoyed the nazis, the voting system was rigged, people were given free vacations, re-education, modernization and scientific breakthroughs. So people prior to the war were the happiest on earth, industry was happy, inter government was happy, generally speaking a very proud nation.

纳粹德国在战前实际上在其他国家中很受欢迎,他们有很多支持,如果有更多的时间,他们会慢慢地说服其他国家与他们结盟,罗马尼亚就是一个例子。记住,纳粹只是在战争后期和战后才变得不受欢迎。
公民非常高兴,工业享受纳粹主义,投票系统被操纵,人们被给予免费假期,再教育,现代化和科学突破。所以战前的人们是世界上最幸福的,工业界很幸福,政府间也很幸福,总体来说,这是一个非常自豪的国家。

What people don’t realize is if Hitler didn’t declare war, given another 5 years Germany would have been an economic and industrial super power, resources prior to the war were supplied by the Soviets and the allied nations, people say the Soviet unx would have eventually attacked, that’s bs, Stalin was always scared of a frontal war with Germany.
Now we go into the landscape of the world, of Germany, Japan, Soviet unx and all these countries didn’t go to war, they’d still exist and they would have progressed. Germany wouldn’t have lost their scientists for example, they would have kept progressing.

人们没有意识到的是,如果希特勒不宣战,再过5年,德国就会成为一个经济和工业超级大国,战前的资源是由苏联和盟国提供的,人们说苏联最终会进攻的,这是胡说,斯大林总是害怕与德国正面冲突。
现在我们来看看世界的格局,德国,日本,苏联所有这些国家如果没有战争,他们仍然存在,他们也会进步。例如,德国不会失去他们的科学家,他们会继续进步。

The war also changed many social aspects, these countries also had strong national pride, so citizens would have been exposed to long term propeganda, the people of the world wouldn’t be what they are today. Because of world war 2 we had many other major engagements, the Cold War etc, the war pushed the US and allied nations to progress, this would have happened. People would be very different.
So would they still exist today, yes, the rest of us would not. The German people didn’t hate them, prior to the war most countries were envious, the liberal politically correct world we live in now wouldn’t exist.

战争也改变了许多社会方面的东西,这些国家也有强烈的民族自豪感,所以公民将暴露在长期的宣传下,世界人民不会是他们今天的样子。因为第二次世界大战,随后我们经历了很多其他重大全球事务,比如冷战等,战争推动了美国和盟国的进步,这是会发生的。人们会非常不同。
所以,如果他们(纳粹德国)今天还存在,是的,我们其他人就不会存在了。德国人并不讨厌他们,在战前大多数国家都羡慕他们,不过我们现在生活的、自由的、政治正确的世界将不复存在。

Reinhardt Vogt
No way. Societies in Europe would have progressed around Germany, and no dictatorship would have been able to survive this until today, especially without complete control of the media which could not have been maintained for so long. People would have yearned for personal freedom like they did in the GDR, eventually leading to a western-type democracy.

不可能。欧洲的社会是围绕德国发展起来的,没有一个独裁政权能够在这种情况下生存到今天,特别是在没有对媒体的完全控制的情况下,这种控制不可能维持这么长时间。
人们会像在民主德国一样渴望个人自由,最终导致了西方式的民主。

Ethan Carter
Totally disagree, I respect your opinion but it was World War II that shaped the social agendas, the German people were happy, given 15–20 years more propeganda and social engineering and you’d have an aryan Germany after 20+ years. also they didn’t have much of a voting system ;) who would have voted them out

完全不同意,我尊重你的观点,但是二战塑造了社会议程。
德国人当时很高兴,再给他们15-20年的宣传和社会工程,20多年后你会看到一个雅利安德国。再者他们(民主派)在投票体系下得票并不多,就算投票也没法当选。

Jeff Dean
There are some brilliant and horrifying descxtions here, but I want to go in a slightly different direction.
Many of these terrific responses primarily suppose that had the Nazis won, we would all now be living in a hellscape dominated by pure evil. I want to offer what I consider to be a more chilling prospect: had the Nazis won, we would live in a world that most every one of us would experience as entirely normal and not at all terrible. We might know a small amount about the slaughter of millions of Jews and Slavs, but we would shrug our shoulders, say “that's a horrible shame,” and then continue driving along in our Volkswagens.
Had the Nazis won, no footage or photographs of the Holocaust would have been captured. No Diary of Anne Frank would have been published, no Schindler’s list filmed. By this moment in history, the German Reich would likely have issued a tacit acknowledgment of the historical “tragedy,” and some commentators would suggest they were “courageous” for “confronting their unfortunate past.” But very, very few people would care very much.

这里有一些精彩而可怕的描述,但我想从一个稍微不同的方向讲。
在这些令人震惊的回应中,很多人都认为,如果纳粹获胜,我们现在就会生活在一个由纯粹的邪恶主宰的地狱之中。我想提出一个我认为更令人不寒而栗的前景:
如果纳粹赢了,我们将生活在一个几乎每个人都能感受到的完全正常的世界里,一点也不可怕。我们可能对数百万犹太人和斯拉夫人被屠杀的情况有一点了解,但我们会耸耸肩,说“这真是可怕的耻辱”,然后继续开着我们的大众汽车前进。
如果纳粹获胜,大屠杀的视频或照片就不会被人们看到。就不会有《安妮日记》出版,就不会有《辛德勒名单》的拍摄。在历史的这一时刻,德意志帝国很可能已经默认了这一历史“悲剧”,一些评论员会认为他们“勇敢地面对自己不幸的过去”。但是很少,很少有人会非常关心。

I believe this would be the case because we *do* inhabit such a world now—a world in which the Turks massacred the Armenians, the Americans slaughtered the native populations, and the Bolsheviks liquidated millions of their own people, yet few of us loose sleep over those incidents. Tragedy in the past becomes increasingly “normal” to us with every passing day.
The real horror of history is therefore not the near miss but rather the direct hits we've come to think of as merely unfortunate turning points in the past.
To me, realizing I could live in a world wherein such evil is just taken as part of history is bone chilling. But we *do* live in precisely that kind of world, relative to other wholesale massacres of innocent human lives.

我相信情况会是这样的,因为我们现在确实生活在这样一个世界——在这个世界里,土耳其人屠杀亚美尼亚人,美国人屠杀土著居民,……,但我们很少有人会因为这些事件而失眠。过去的悲剧对我们来说越来越“正常”。
因此,历史的真正可怕之处不是那些细微差别,而是那些我们认为它仅仅是过去的不幸。
对我来说,意识到我可能生活在一个这样的邪恶被视为历史的一部分的世界里,令人毛骨悚然。但相对于其他对无辜生命的大规模屠杀,我们*确实*生活在这样的世界里。
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Jeff Quiggle
History books are written by the victors. Had the Nazis and their allies won, we would certainly have a different perspective on many aspects of the war.

历史书是胜利者写的。如果纳粹和他们的盟友赢了,我们肯定会对战争的许多方面有不同的看法。

Alex Wong
In this era, history books are written by everyone. You can find a lot of history books about the genocide committed by the the US in US bookstores. Mass media and the internet has changed how history is recorded.

在这个时代,历史书是每个人写的。你可以在美国书店里找到很多关于美国犯下的种族灭绝的历史书。大众媒体和互联网改变了记录历史的方式。

Heath Lee Fournier
This is a good answer, and almost certainly true unfortunately.

这是一个很好的答案,不幸的是,几乎可以肯定是正确的。

 
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