网帖翻译

Can India become a manufacturing superpower yet ? I contend that we have missed the bus on any realistic chances of such an outcome.

印度能成为制造业超级大国吗? 我认为，我们已经错过了实现这种结果的任何现实机会。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Question: are you saying seriously that we cannot become a manufacturing power in the future?

问:你说我们未来不能成为制造大国，这是认真地吗?

Answer: Yes, 3D printing, robotics and AI is taking over and we aren't investing in this.

答:是的，3D打印、机器人和人工智能正在接管（制造业），而我们并未在这方面投资。

We were 200 years late to the industrial revolution at independence. Nevertheless we had begun to build an industrial base under Nehru with steel, cement, fertilizer and other basic industrial capabilities. Then the planned economy of socialism put a stop to that. We lost 40 years of economic development . When we had the advantage of wage arbitrage, we squandered the opportunity to industrialize. At the time that China was industrializing, India was on a lower economic base and had the advantage of an English speaking workforce. We had the advantage. Today our wages may be marginally lower but our skill set is very low in comparison to even China.

我们独立时，工业革命已过去了200年。尽管如此，在尼赫鲁的领导下，我们已经开始建立一个拥有钢铁、水泥、化肥和其他基本工业能力的工业基础。后来社会主义计划经济让其中断。我们失去了40年的经济发展。当我们拥有工资套利的优势时，我们浪费了工业化的机会。当中国正在工业化时，印度的经济基础低下，然而拥有一个优势：劳动力说英语。我们有优势。今天我们的工资可能略低，但即使与中国相比，我们的技能都非常低。

The global workplace today is entirely merit and skill based.

如今的全球职场完全是基于能力和技能的。

An Indian student in high school today is not learning about robotics or playing with 3D printing or AI, at least not in your ordinary school. On the other hand, you have Indian children who have moved abroad, say, to the US, learning these skills at the same age in high school, and putting it to practical use. This is what is going to set them apart for the industrial economy of the future.

今天的印度高中生不会学习机器人技术，也不会玩3D打印或人工智能，至少在普通的学校里不会。另一方面，那些移居国外，比如美国的印度孩子，他们在同样年龄的高中学习这些技能，并将其用于实际应用。这将使他们在未来的工业经济中脱颖而出。

When the world in the pre-industrial times was purely based on physical strength, the difference between the strongest individual and the average individual was never more than one order of magnitude that is 10x. If the strongest person could lift 300 kilos, then the average person could lift at least 30 to 60 kilos whereas the strongest person would also eat five times as much, negating any advantage. However, once mechanical advantage and chemical advantage came into play, the person inventing the machine or industrial process was even a thousand times more valuable than an ordinary worker.

前工业时代的世界纯粹以体力为基础，最强壮的个体与普通个体之间的差距从来不会超过一个数量级，也就是10倍。如果最强壮的人能举起300公斤，那么一般人至少能举起30到60公斤，而最强壮的人也要吃5倍的饭，这就消灭了任何优势。然而，一旦机械优势和化学优势发挥作用，发明机器或工业过程的人的价值甚至是普通工人的一千倍。

If you went back a hundred years there was very little skilled requirement for holding a job. Somebody could become a general just because they were the prince of a state, and somebody could be given a job in a factory because their father worked there. Whereas with the technology of even the '80s you needed competence - you could not ask someone to run a lathe if they were not a trained machinist.

如果回到一百年前，对一份工作的技能要求非常低。有人可能仅仅因为他们是一个国家的王子，就成为将军，有人可能因为他们的父亲在工厂工作，就在工厂工作。然而，即使是80年代的技术，你也需要能力——如果一个人不是受过训练的机械师，你就不能让他开车床。

As these machines advanced the world has divided itself into two parts- the first part is low skilled people aided by smart technology and the second much smaller part is incredibly smart and well trained people operating or creating incredibly complex technology. Think of a swiggy driver or call center operator versus a Spacex engineer. This second section of people are going to create the real economic opportunities and industries of today and tomorrow.

随着这些机器的进步，世界已经分成了两部分——第一部分是得到智能技术帮助的低技能人群，第二部分是非常聪明和训练有素的人，他们操作或创造了非常复杂的技术。想象一下外卖员或呼叫中心接线员，与Spacex的工程师的差别。第二部分人将在今天和明天创造真正的经济机会和产业。

Skill is even more of a requirement today because not everyone can understand 3D printing, robotics, and machine learning. But Indian society is focused towards social equality and social advancement. Skill and merit is not being invested in as much as social justice is.

如今，技能更是一种要求，因为不是每个人都能理解3D打印、机器人和机器学习。但印度社会专注于社会平等和社会进步。人们对技能和价值的投入不如对社会公正的投入多。

Let us not be fooled by the success we had in creating an IT economy starting from the '90s . It is relatively cheap to learn web programming, digital art and other skills with the help of a PC and some software which can be pirated. On the other hand to learn robotics, 3D printing, etc. you need to invest in expensive labs that have dedicated technology. I think the cheapest 3D printer which is somewhat usable will cost at least one lakh rupees . This is a phase of industrialization that favors the richer countries.

我们不要被我们从90年代开始在创建IT经济方面取得的成功所愚弄。在个人电脑和一些可以盗版的软件的帮助下，学习网络编程、数字艺术和其他技能相对便宜。另一方面，要想学习机器人，3D打印等，就需要投资昂贵的实验室，有专门的技术。我认为最便宜的3D打印机至少要10万卢比。这是一个有利于富裕国家的工业化阶段。

So in short, India has once again missed the bus on the modern industrial revolution which is based on intelligent machines which need to be programmed.

简而言之，印度再次错过了现代工业革命的班车，而现代工业革命是基于需要编程的智能机器。

If not already, in about 5 to 10 years, it'll be too late because the advantage that the West will enjoy when it comes to industrial technology will simply not be able to be matched by other countries. As I said, the ratio of advantage when it was just physical strength was a maximum cap of 10 times. But with industrialization the advantage of machines was even greater, maybe a few thousand times. Now with the advantage of AI and robotics and 3D printing you are going to have an advantage of several million times.

如果现在还没有，在大约5到10年内，就会为时已晚，因为西方在工业技术方面所享有的优势将根本无法被其他国家所匹敌。就像我说过的，只说体力方面的优势，比例上限是10倍。但随着工业化，机器的优势更大，可能是几千倍。现在有了人工智能、机器人和3D打印的优势，这种优势将是数百万倍。

You are already using a million times more powerful AI everyday when you search Google. It is impossible using any normal method of databases to retrieve search results as quickly as Google does. It is the AI engine that allows for instantaneous retri of results. So you could say Google is a million times more effective than a non AI powered search engine. These advantages cannot be easily competed against.

当你每天搜索谷歌时，你已经在使用强大了100万倍的人工智能。使用任何正常的数据库方法都不可能像谷歌那样快速检索和搜索结果。这就是允许即时检索结果的AI引擎。所以可以说谷歌比非人工智能搜索引擎高效一百万倍。这些优势是无法轻易与之竞争的。

In the 1940s learning stenography and typewriting guaranteed you a job for life. I just typed this entire wall of text using speech recognition on my phone.

在20世纪40年代，学习速记和打字可以保证你终身得到一份工作。而我刚刚用我手机上的语音识别打了可以布满一面墙的文字。

The-first-laugh
Ok first of all, automation technology like AI or robotics is not for India. It might work out in countries like USA with their relatively small population and larger land area but not in India. In India, with our average age being around 20s, getting an automated ticket service or vending machines will only result in job losses, unlike USA where population is about a quarter.

好的。首先，像人工智能或机器人这样的自动化技术不适合印度。它可能适用于美国等人口相对较少、土地面积较大的国家，但不适用于印度。我们印度的平均年龄在20岁左右，使用自动售票服务或自动售货机只会导致失业，不像美国，人口只有我们的四分之一。

As for your point on schooling systems, I don't know which world you are living in but kids in USA are not taught AI in highschool. They actually learn less than what we learn, most of them aren't industry experts, more often than not their first jobs are being a cashier at a McDonald's or a staff in Walmart. No, this is not their preferred summer job but their actual starting point.

至于你关于教育系统的观点，我不知道你生活在哪个世界，但美国的孩子在高中不教人工智能。他们实际上学的比我们少，他们中的大多数人不是行业专家，他们的第一份工作通常是麦当劳的收银员或沃尔玛的员工。不，这不是他们喜欢的暑期工作，而是他们实际的起点。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

As for your point that we can't get into manufacturing because we apparently missed some train/bus, please keep up with the latest news. Our current indeginous weapon Tejas mk 2 is being eyed by USA itself, we were the first and only country till date to have a self flying drone that worked on its first try. Right here we have both manufacturing and AI success stories from this very year, your talking about not being caught up with the success in the 1990s?

至于你所说的我们无法进入制造业是因为我们显然错过了一些火车/公共汽车，请跟进最新的消息。我们目前的自主武器光辉mk 2，就连美国都垂涎不已，我们是迄今为止第一个也是唯一一个拥有第一次尝试就成功的自动飞行无人机的国家。就在这里，就在今年，我们出现了制造业和人工智能的成功故事，你说的我们没有赶上上世纪90年代的成功?

The 3d printer is not banned in India. If you feel your kid should play with it, go ahead and buy it. This is the one I use, there are very few left hurry.

印度并没有禁止3d打印机。如果你觉得你的孩子应该玩它，那就去买吧。我就用了一台，剩下的不多了，快去买。

MaffeoPolo
According to latest figures, the Tejas imports about 50 to 60% of its components. Which is about the same level of indigenization as the Sukhoi 30 MKI.

根据最新数据，光辉战机大约50%到60%的部件是进口的。这与苏霍伊30 MKI的国产化水平大致相同。

Whether it is the Arjun main battle tank or the light combat helicopter or the numerous other famous indigenized projects, they all include about half or more of imported components.

无论是“阿琼”主战坦克、轻型战斗直升机，还是众多其他著名的国产化项目，它们都有大约一半或更多的部件是进口的。

Our main battle tanks still operate on tractor engines when Western tanks operate on helicopter engines. Forget gas turbine engines, we are not yet capable of producing world class piston engines without technology collaboration with the West.

我们的主战坦克仍然使用拖拉机发动机，而西方坦克使用直升机发动机。更别说燃气涡轮发动机，如果没有与西方的技术合作，我们还不能生产世界级的活塞发动机。

We aren't ready for the next generation leap in manufacturing and as much as we would like to deny it, modern factories like Tesla giga factory employ a handful of people and produce world class products. In fact, one of the main reasons why Tesla is able to roll out upxes to cars like we are used to in the software world is because a majority of the manufacturing process uses robots that can be reprogrammed overnight. This is a paradigm of industrial manufacturing that is new even to the USA.

我们还没有为制造业的下一代飞跃做好准备，而且尽管我们很想否认这一点，但像特斯拉这样的现代工厂只雇佣少量人，却生产世界级的产品。事实上，特斯拉之所以能够像我们在软件世界中习惯的那样推出汽车更新，主要原因之一是大多数制造过程都使用了可以在一夜之间重新编程的机器人。这是一种工业制造的模式，甚至对美国来说都是新的。

As for American schools, that is a dual tier system there. There are excellent public schools that are at the level that I describe and then there is your average public school where you end up flipping burgers after graduating. Look at where families that earn more than $150,000 a year end up sending their children to. All the documentaries on America cover the poor and the working classes just as documentaries on India do not focus on the average middle class Indian but have a slumdog millionaire story to sell to the audience. Upper Middle class America that is largely white but also Indian and Asian has a very different value system and the kind of schools that their children go to and the opportunities that are open to them are of a different category altogether.

至于美国学校，这是一个双层体系。那里有优秀的公立学校，可以达到我所描述的水平，也有普通的公立学校，毕业后只能去卖汉堡。看看那些年收入超过15万美元的家庭最终把孩子送到了哪里。所有关于美国的纪录片都在报道穷人和工人阶级，就像关于印度的纪录片不关注印度的普通中产阶级，却高一个贫民窟的百万富翁的故事来卖给观众。美国的中上层阶级主要是白人，但美国也有印度人和亚洲人，他们的价值观非常不同，他们的孩子所上学校的类型，以及向他们开放的机会，都处于一个完全不同的水平。

The same is true of colleges. You have your average degree mill college and then there is Carnegie Mellon with its robotics lab that managed to build an automated humvee that could traverse that Nevada desert way back in 2003.

大学也是如此。那里有普通的混学位的大学，也有卡耐基梅隆大学，后者的机器人实验室，甚至早在2003年，就建造了一辆自动悍马，可以穿越内华达州的沙漠。

The recaptcha technology invented in Carnegie Mellon now powers every website in the world. Name one technology that is invented by an Indian university that is in worldwide use.

卡耐基梅隆大学发明的recaptcha技术现在为世界上的每个网站提供动力。请说出一项由印度大学发明并在世界范围内使用的技术。

Why is China able to produce mobile phones for the world when the rest of the world isn''t? What started out as cheap labor in China has now progressed to fantastically complicated assembly lines that cannot be replicated elsewhere in the world. It is not all sweatshop labor and slavery.

为什么中国能够为世界生产手机，而世界其他地方却不能? 中国最初的廉价劳动力，现在已经发展成为世界其他地方无法复制的极其复杂的装配线。这并不全是xx工厂的劳动和nl制。

As for the 3D printing that is available on Amazon, that is just the tip of the iceberg. You can go to any second tier town in USA and still find a CNC laser cutting machine to cut aluminum blocks or wood. You can ship a drawing and get back a machined product by overnight FedEx. This is the industrial base I am talking about that we need to invest in. Merely knowing how to extrude a small piece of plastic in your bedroom does not make you capable of producing a business venture.

至于亚马逊上的3D打印机，只是冰山一角。你可以去美国的任何一个二线城镇，但仍然可以找到一台数控激光切割机，用于切割铝块或木材。您可以通过联邦快递隔夜运送图纸并取回加工好的产品。这就是我所说的我们需要投资的工业基础。仅仅知道如何在卧室里挤出一小块塑料，并不意味着你有能力创业。

Mid to large 3D printing machines are not present in India let alone being manufactured in India.

印度没有中型到大型3D打印机，更不用说在印度制造了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The-first-laugh
You need to understand what made in India and imported products are. Those components that you are pointing towards are mostly made in India through technology transfer, you know the exact same thing China does, only we do it legally. Also when I said Tejas, I said Tejas mk 2 not Tejas mk 1. Mk 2 variant is planned as import free. So now again I ask you, what makes you think India is not leaping towards manufacturing?

你需要了解什么是印度制造，什么是进口产品。你指的那些部件大部分是通过技术转让在印度制造的，你知道中国所做的事情完全一样，只是我们是合法的。还有，当我说光辉时，我说的是光辉mk 2，而不是光辉mk 1。mk2改型计划为没有任何进口零件。所以现在我再问你，是什么让你认为印度没有向制造业飞跃?

As for your point on American school systems, we have the exact same thing here. A student who passed out of schools like Kendriya which are highly respected and colleges like IIT or BITS or IIIT. Where do you think the highly proposed e scooter and Hyperloop systems where built and inaugurated at recently?

至于你关于美国学校系统的观点，我们这里也有完全相同的东西。比如那些从肯德里亚这样备受尊敬的学校，以及印度理工学院、博拉理工学院或印度信息技术研究所毕业的学生。你认为备受推崇的电动滑板车和超级高铁系统最近是在哪里建成和启用的?
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Why is China able to produce mobile phones for the world when the rest of the world isn''t? What started out as cheap labor in China has now progressed to fantastically complicated assembly lines that cannot be replicated elsewhere in the world. It is not all sweatshop labor and slavery.

“为什么中国能够为世界生产手机，而世界其他地方却不能? 中国最初的廉价劳动力，现在已经发展成为世界其他地方无法复制的极其复杂的装配线。这并不全是xx工厂的劳动和nl制。”

Again, that's the point of make in India which companies are following religiously.

再说一次，这就是“印度制造”的意义，各个公司都在认真地效仿。

Mid to large 3D printing machines are not present in India let alone being manufactured in India.

“印度没有中型到大型3D打印机，更不用说在印度制造了。”

There's a reason for that, in USA itself these are used to create guns to shoot shit up. Heck, one of the safest countries in the world, Japan itself had a recent assassination where the components of the gun were made using 3D printers. Unless, we put up restrictions into the software and make it safe, I wouldn't really want a shooting taking place over here.

这是有原因的，在美国，这些东西是用来制造枪支的。日本作为世界上最安全的国家之一，最近却发生了一起暗杀事件，枪支的部件就是用3D打印机制造的。除非我们对软件进行限制，并使其安全，否则我真的不希望在这里发生枪击事件。

MaffeoPolo
The engine of the Tejas is not made in India even on technology transfer. It is fully imported. As regards, Tejas MK2, We will see when 100% indigenization happens. It is a stretch goal but we are yet to do that in any field. I doubt that we will have a local engine by the time MK2 is ready.

光辉战机的发动机不是印度制造的，甚至不是技术转让。它是完全进口的。至于光辉MK2，它何时能实现100%的国产化，我们拭目以待。这是一个艰巨的目标，但我们还没有在任何领域做到这一点。我怀疑直到MK2就绪，我们是否能拥有一台国产发动机。

As I had explained in the example of the Tesla gigafactory, there is a new kind of manufacturing that is happening today. What you see in a Tesla is going to come soon to the fighter jet. Gone are the days when it took 25 to 30 years to conceive design and build a new aircraft. In the coming years you will see an aircraft going from idea to implementation in under 2 years. There will be rolling upxes that greatly increase the feature set of aircraft and other vehicles.

正如我在特斯拉超级工厂的例子中所解释的那样，今天正在发生一种新的制造方式。我们在特斯拉上看到的东西很快就会出现在战斗机上。花25到30年构思设计和制造一架新飞机的日子一去不复返了。在未来的几年里，我们会看到一架飞机在不到两年的时间里从想法到实施。将出现滚动更新，大大增加飞机和其他交通工具的功能集。

Let us accept one thing. We are a developing nation, a third world country, if you will and we are limited by what we can afford and our human capital base which is fairly low.

我们要接受一件事。我们是一个发展中国家，一个第三世界国家，我们所能负担的有限，而且我们的人力资本基础相当低。

We need to build technology of a generation which is greater than what we are at today. Now going this way may produce job losses, shake up the economy and create other social issues. But that is not what we are discussing here. That decision has to happen independent of the technology. Technology always comes into play sooner or later, no country has successfully said no to technology forever. Society and its social issues have always made way to accommodate technology that delivers better results.

我们需要建立新一代技术，比我们今天的更先进。现在，走这条路可能会导致失业，动摇经济，并产生其他社会问题。但这不是我们在这里讨论的内容。这个决定必须发生，与技术无关。技术迟早会发挥作用，任何一个国家都不能永远成功地对技术说不。社会及其社会问题总是让位于能给出更好结果的技术。

For example , a restaurant is going to employ an automated cook instead of a human if it is cheap enough. In the '80s, nearly every restaurant had someone in the back room creating batter for Idlis using manual labor. Now every restaurant uses a wet grinder. You are going to see this kind of pervasive use of 3D printed tech or tech that uses AI in everyday activities. And it is not going to be Indian.

例如，如果成本足够低，一家餐厅将雇佣一名自动厨师而不是人类厨师。在80年代，几乎每家餐厅都有人在里屋用手工为酒酿饼制作面糊。现在每家餐馆都用湿磨机。我们会看到3D打印技术的普遍使用，或在日常活动中使用人工智能技术。而且这种情况不会发生在印度人身上。

Whether the concern is that there will be job loss or as you say 3D printed parts of socially harmful instruments, It is going to happen nevertheless. One can print parts of a 3D gun at home using a printer that one buys on Amazon.

无论是否担心会发生失业，还是像你说的，3D打印会制造对社会有害的部件，它都将发生。人们可以在家里用亚马逊上买的打印机打印3D枪的零件。

What India needs to understand is that we are not yet capable of challenging countries that have 20 to 30 times our GDP. As much as we can pretend we are the next superpower, we are very far away from that goal. Our mig21 aircraft do not carry GPS so our pilots tape GPS units into the cockpit. That is the level of make do technology or jugaad we are at.

印度需要明白的是，我们还没有能力挑战那些GDP是我们20到30倍的国家。尽管我们假装自己是下一个超级大国，但我们离这个目标还很远。我们的米格21飞机并未携带GPS，所以我们的飞行员把GPS装置粘在驾驶舱里。这就是我们所处的“凑合着过”（ jugaad——印度式的“随机应变” ）技术水平。

It is very impressive that we were able to develop lots of apps for delivery, banking, etc. domestically however, we must realize that every swiggy delivery or Ola pickup will not be possible without the billions invested by Google into mapping technology. This is the heavy weight realm of technology that we have not entered into. Google is licensing this tech to the world, but we are at infancy when it comes to anything similar.

我们能够在国内为快递、银行等开发大量应用程序，这一点令人印象深刻，然而，我们必须意识到，如果没有谷歌在地图技术上投入的数十亿美元，每一次swiggy外卖或Ola打车都是不可能实现的。这是一个我们还没有进入的重量级技术领域。谷歌正在向全世界授权这项技术，但当涉及到类似的东西时，我们还处于起步阶段。

The latest smartphone that we use is only assembled in India but nearly every component is imported. The Make in India scheme does not stipulate that it has to be manufactured here. We are not going to get to become a manufacturing nation because of some bureaucratic scheme.

我们使用的最新智能手机只是在印度组装的，但几乎每个部件都是进口的。“印度制造”计划并没有规定必须在印度制造。我们不会因为一些官僚主义的计划而成为一个制造业国家。

We need to first recognize that we are a couple of decades behind in many areas of technology.

我们需要首先认识到，我们在许多技术领域落后了几十年。

Every country that is starved for good news will boast and speak up minor achievements. I don't think that is any real chance of Tejas being imported by the US except in very minor and niche roles.

每个渴望好消息的国家都会吹嘘和宣扬那些渺小的成就。我认为美国不太可能进口光辉战机，除非将其用在非常次要和小众的角色上。

It is not a minor achievement that we were able to produce an aircraft like Tejas, but let us not kid ourselves. There is a very long way to go and we are far from being a competent fighter jet manufacturer.

我们能够生产光辉战机，这不是一个小成就，但我们不要自欺欺人。我们还有很长的路要走，我们离成为一个合格的战斗机制造国还很远。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Having an assembly line that costs billions does not make us a manufacturing nation. Take the case of the Arjun main battle tank. The landed cost of an Arjun MBT is nearly 10 million dollars when a T72 costs about $1.5 million, a T90 about $2.5 million and even the best tank in the world that Israeli import costs about 4.5 million per piece. So the Arjun was delivered 20 years later costing twice as much as the best tank in the world and is too large to fit on Indian railways. Cannot cross most Indian bridges and is unsuitable except in the desert terrain of Rajasthan. And even now it uses a German engine on technology transfer. About 50 - 60% of Arjun is imported. This is exactly why I say we are lacking as a manufacturing nation because it doesn't matter if you can produce the best things in the world if they are four to five times what they should cost. Inefficiency is as good as incapacity.

拥有一条耗资数十亿美元的装配线，并不能使我们成为一个制造业国家。以阿琼主战坦克为例。阿琼主战坦克的落地成本接近1000万美元，而T72的成本约为150万美元，T90约为250万美元，即使是以色列进口的世界上最好的坦克，每辆成本也只有约为450万美元。所以阿琼交付晚了20年，价格却比世界上最好的坦克贵了一倍，而且太大了，无法匹配印度铁路。它不能通行大多数印度桥梁，不适应除了拉贾斯坦邦的沙漠地带外之外的任何地方。即使现在，它也使用着技术转让的德国发动机。大约50 - 60%的阿琼部件是进口的。这就是为什么我说我们是一个缺乏制造业的国家，即便我们能生产出世界上最好的东西，如果它们是正常成本的4到5倍，那也毫无意义。效率低和没有能力是一样的。

Even when these parts are made in India, supposedly they are just being assembled here. The technology is made in several parts of the world. None of the chips are made in India, for example, and the optics are made elsewhere, so there is really not that much indigenization difference between a Sukhoi 30 MKI that is made out of imported components by HAL and a Tejas.

即使这些零件是在印度制造的，据说它们只是在这里组装。世界上好几个地方都有这种技术。例如，没有一款芯片是印度制造的，而且光学元件是在其他地方制造的，所以HAL用进口部件制造的苏霍伊30 MKI和光辉战斗机在国产化方面的差异并不大。