下一个牛市可能是铜 - 龙腾网移动版

【下一个牛市可能是铜】

Glencore’s aggressive pursuit of Canada’s Teck Resources has put a spotlight on the race to secure access to copper.

嘉能可(Glencore)正在积极寻求收购Teck Resources，铜矿开采权的竞争成为关注的焦点。

Traditionally seen as a cyclical economic indicator, the metal is also poised to play a key role in the world’s green transition—which is being supercharged by recent legislation, including the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed last year. Green technologies including electric vehicles and solar panels use more copper than equivalent fossil-fuel-based technologies, and supply growth looks likely to fall far well short of demand over the coming decade.

传统上，铜被视为一个周期性的经济指标，它也将在世界的绿色转型中发挥关键作用--最近的立法，包括去年通过的《通胀削减法案》（IRA），正在为此推波助澜。包括电动汽车和太阳能电池板在内的绿色技术比基于化石燃料的同等技术会使用更多的铜，而在未来十年，未来十年的铜供应增长看起来可能远远满足不了需求。

In early and mid-2023, the slow pace of China’s property recovery and global economic headwinds could limit the upside for copper, currently trading around $8,500 metric ton. But the long-run outlook is quite different.

在2023年初和年终，中国房地产复苏步伐缓慢和全球经济逆风可能限制铜的上升空间，目前铜的交易价格约为8500美元。但长期的前景则完全不同。

U.S. demand, long dwarfed by China’s, will be key. The IRA offers beefy tax credits and other support for clean-energy projects including wind farms, batteries, solar and hydrogen. Goldman Sachs reckons that between 2023 and 2030 it could increase average annual demand by about 180,000 metric tons, or roughly 1% of current global consumption. The bank says that “green” copper demand drives 7% of global consumption today, up from just 4% in 2020, and will account for a whopping 47% of total demand growth between 2023 and 2040.

美国的铜需求将是关键。很长时间以来，美国的铜需求一直远低于中国。美国的《通胀削减法案》为包括风电场、电池、太阳能和氢在内的清洁能源项目提供大量的税收抵免和其他支持。高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，2023年至2030年美国年均铜需求量可能增加约18万吨，大致相当于当前全球铜消费量的1%。高盛称，目前“绿色”项目的铜需求占到全球铜消费的7%，相比之下，2020年这一数字仅为4%；估计2023年至2040年整体铜需求增长中将有高达47%来自“绿色”项目。

Current investment plans would probably fall far short of meeting that. A McKinsey report in February projected global copper demand of 36.6 million metric tons by 2031, largely driven by the green transition, against a supply of just 30.1 million metric tons. Goldman is even more bullish: Figures in its April report imply 2030 demand of 40 million metric tons.

而目前的投资计划很可能远远满足不了这样的需求。麦肯锡(McKinsey)在2月份的一份报告中预计，2031年以前全球铜需求量将达到3,660万吨，主要受绿色能源转型驱动，而供应量将仅为3,010万吨。高盛甚至更为乐观：其4月报告中的数字暗示2030年铜需求量将达到4,000万吨。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Still, there are a few bullish trends for supply growth too, mostly related to politics.

不过供应增长方面也有一些看涨趋势，主要与政治有关。

To quality for tax credits under the IRA, for example, EVs must use batteries with a certain percentage of their “critical minerals” sourced either from the U.S. or a country that has a free-trade agreement with the U.S. Copper isn’t currently on the list of critical minerals, but some researchers and politicians—including senators in battleground states such as Arizona and Georgia—are already beginning to advocate its inclusion.

例如，为符合《通胀削减法案》中规定的税收减免资格，电动汽车电池使用的“关键矿物”必须有一定比例来自美国或与美国有自由贸易协定的国家。铜目前尚不在关键矿物清单上，但一些研究人员和政界人士已开始主张将其纳入清单。这些政界人士包括亚利桑那州和佐治亚州等摇摆州的参议员。

The idea is to wrest from China control of the supply chain for clean power minerals. A Brookings Institution report last year put China’s share of refining capacity at 73% for cobalt, 68% for nickel, 59% for lithium and 40% for copper. China has also been directly buying up mineral assets worldwide, especially lithium, to fuel its own massive greentech industry.

当前的意图是要从中国手中夺得清洁能源矿产供应链的控制权。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)去年的一份报告指出，中国在精炼产能中所占份额分别为钴73%、镍68%、锂59%，铜40%。为驱动其庞大的绿色科技产业，中国还在全球范围内直接收购矿业资产，尤其是锂。

A more bifurcated supply chain will raise costs for everyone, especially in the early phases of the green transition. But those higher material prices will also stimulate investment. Mineral processing is the key bottleneck, but that probably implies more upstream mining investment too—especially since the IRA will require many battery minerals to be both mined and processed in the U.S. or countries with U.S. free-trade agreements.

更加分化的供应链将使所有人的成本都上升，特别是在绿色能源转型的早期阶段。但这些材料价格的上涨也将刺激投资。矿物加工是关键的瓶颈，但也可能意味着上游采矿投资的增加，特别是考虑到《通胀削减法案》将要求很多电池矿物在美国或与美国签署自由贸易协定的国家进行开采和加工。

One key uncertainty is the U.S. Congress. Republicans’ opening move in the debt-ceiling battle has included a demand to undo parts of the IRA.

美国国会是关键的不确定因素。共和党人在债务上限之争中打出的第一炮，就包括提出撤销《通胀削减法案》的部分内容。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

But assuming the law remains intact, the U.S., China and Europe will all move aggressively to green their economies over the next decade. The world will need much more copper to achieve that, especially if global supply chains keep Balkanizing.

但假设这项法律保持不变，美国、中国和欧洲都将在未来10年积极推进绿色经济转型。为实现这一目标，世界需要多得多的铜，如果全球供应链继续碎片化就更是如此。
【Uber正在靠它核心业务一路狂奔】

How well is Uber Technologies doing these days? Well enough that it can afford to be magnanimous.

优步(Uber Technologies Inc., UBER)最近表现如何？很好，好到不能再好。

The ride-share giant had some kind words for its smaller and struggling rival Lyft on Tuesday. Addressing a question from an analyst on a conference call to discuss Uber’s first-quarter results Tuesday morning, Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi called Lyft “a very, very strong brand.” And while conceding his competitor is “going through a lot of changes,” he added that Lyft is also “not going anywhere.” He added that he expects Lyft’s continued presence to set up a “constructive competitive environment going forward,” one in which ride-share providers no longer chase market share at the expense of profitability. “Those days are over,” he said.

这家网约车巨头周二为其规模较小、处境艰难的竞争对手Lyft Inc. (LYFT)说了一些好话。周二上午，在讨论优步第一财季业绩的电话会议上，首席执行官霍斯劳沙希(Dara Khosrowshahi)在回答一位分析师的问题时，称Lyft是一个“非常、非常强大的品牌”。虽然承认这个竞争对手“正在经历很多变革”，但他也表示，Lyft不会退出该行业。他还说，预计Lyft的持续存在将为未来打造一个“建设性的竞争环境”，在这个环境中，网约车服务提供商再也不会不惜牺牲盈利能力来争夺市场份额。他说：“那种日子已一去不返。”

Lyft will get a chance to further spell out its direction under new boss David Risher when it reports its own results on Thursday. But Uber’s numbers Tuesday show what a tough road the smaller ride-share provider faces. In the area where the two companies compete most directly, Uber’s ride-share revenue jumped 72% year over year to $4.3 billion. Lyft expects to report revenue of $975 million—representing 11% growth year over year—for the same period.

Lyft将于周四公布财报，届时该公司将有机会进一步阐明其在新老板David Risher领导下的发展方向。但优步周二公布的数据显示，Lyft面前是一条坎坷之路。在这两家公司短兵相接的领域，优步的网约车业务收入同比增长72%，达到43亿美元。Lyft预计将公布同期收入为9.75亿美元，同比增长11%。

Uber of course is about more than rides. Its meal-delivery business now accounts for a greater share of gross bookings, and revenue there rose 23% year over year. Gross bookings growth for both businesses accelerated from the December quarter, and Uber projected total gross bookings of $33.5 billion for the second quarter, which was 2% ahead of Wall Street’s projections.

当然，优步的业务不仅限于网约车服务。目前，其外卖送餐业务占该公司订单总额的份额增加，收入同比增长23%。这两项业务的订单总额增长较去年12月当季加快，优步预计第二财季订单总额为335亿美元，比华尔街分析师的预期高出2%。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

As Mr. Khosrowshahi indicated though, growth at Uber no longer takes a back seat to profitability. The company delivered here as well, posting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $761 million for the first quarter, which was 10% ahead of analysts’ forecasts. It projected that metric rising to a midpoint of $825 million for the second quarter, which was also ahead of consensus targets. Free cash flow of $549 million blew away Wall Street’s estimate by 25%. Uber’s stock—up 32% for the year already ahead of the results—jumped another 12% Tuesday.

正如霍斯劳沙希所说，优步增长的重要性不再次于盈利能力。该公司在盈利方面也表现出色，第一财季调整后的利息﹑税项﹑折旧﹑摊销前收益(Ebitda)为7.61亿美元，比分析师的预测高出10%。该公司预计第二财季Ebitda区间的中点在8.25亿美元，这也超过了分析师平均预期。第一财季自由现金流为5.49亿美元，比华尔街估计值高出25%。优步股价在该业绩公布前已于今年年内上涨32%，周二前市又进一步跳涨8%。

A theoretical turnaround at Lyft could certainly damp Uber’s growth. But Uber’s scale advantage, which allows for both rides and meal delivery over the same platform, is only getting more difficult for rivals to overcome. And its Uber One membership program seems to only be furthering that advantage. Launched in late 2021, the program allows for discounts on rides and meals and other perks for a monthly $9.99 fee. Mr. Khosrowshahi said Tuesday that Uber One now accounts for 27% of the company’s total gross bookings, with members spending four times as much on the platform as nonmembers do.

Lyft理论上的翻身肯定会抑制优步的增长。但是优步的规模优势，即允许用户在同一平台上叫车、点外卖的功能，只会让竞争对手越来越难以超越。而其Uber One会员计划似乎只会进一步扩大这一优势。该计划于2021年底推出，用户每月只需支付9.99美元就可以享受叫车、点外卖优惠以及其他津贴。霍斯劳沙希周二表示，Uber One现在占该公司订单总额的27%，会员在该平台上的支出是非会员的四倍。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The only blemish on Uber’s recent results was its freight business. Revenue there slipped 23% year over year to $1.4 billion, with an adjusted Ebitda loss growing to $23 million from $8 million in the December quarter. Uber Chief Financial Officer Nelson Chai chalked up the poor performance to an “oversupplied market” post-Covid but also noted that the company raised external capital for the freight business and funds it separately. He noted that Uber has “a lot of optionality” around the freight business; Bloomberg reported in March that the company was considering a spinoff or initial public offering of the unit. That could prove a tough haul in the current market, but so long as Uber keeps focused on hungry people who also need to go places, freight shouldn’t weigh the company down.

优步最新业绩中的唯一缺憾是货运业务。该业务收入同比下滑23%，至14亿美元，调整后的Ebitda亏损从去年12月当季的800万美元扩大到2,300万美元。优步首席财务官Nelson Chai将该糟糕表现归咎于新冠疫情后“市场供过于求”，但也指出，该公司为货运业务筹集了外部资本，并为其单独提供资金。他指出，优步在货运业务方面有很多选择；彭博(Bloomberg)在3月份报道说，优步正考虑将货运业务分拆出去或将其单独上市。以当前市况来看，这可能是一个艰难之旅，但只要优步继续将重点放在即需要点外卖又需要约车的人群，货运业务应该不会给该公司拖后腿。
【近300人在“暗网”芬太尼打击行动中被捕】

WASHINGTON—International authorities have shut down an online marketplace and arrested nearly 300 people who allegedly used it and other parts of the so-called dark web to buy and sell fentanyl and other dangerous opioids, in a sweep officials said underscores how hard it is to stem the tide of drug trafficking in the internet’s hidden corners.

国际执法机构已关闭一个在线市场平台，并逮捕近300人。这些人涉嫌利用该平台和“暗网”上的其他平台买卖芬太尼和其他危险的阿片类药物。官员们表示，这一清理行动凸显了阻断互联网隐蔽角落的非法贩运药品热潮有多困难。

The operation went on for more than 18 months and spanned three continents, U.S. officials said Tuesday. Law-enforcement agencies also seized more than $53 million in cash and virtual currencies, along with guns and nearly 2,000 pounds of drugs.

美国官员周二表示，上述行动持续了18个多月，跨越三大洲。执法机构还缴获了超过5,300万美元现金和虚拟货币，以及枪支和近2,000磅违禁药品。

A focus of the effort was the potent synthetic opioid fentanyl. The drug’s inexpensive, easy-to-replicate formula has boosted its appeal among criminal networks, fueling a U.S. drug-overdose crisis that claimed a record 106,700 lives in the U.S. in 2021.

该项行动的一个主要针对目标是强效的合成阿片类药物芬太尼。芬太尼以其制作成本低廉、配方容易复制的特点在犯罪网络中大受欢迎，为美国的药物滥用危机火上浇油；2021年，美国有106,700人死于药物滥用。

The bust was the latest of its kind by U.S. and allied law-enforcement agencies, which have for several years sought, with limited success, to shut down darknet forums to curb the rash of drug trafficking, ransomware attacks and other criminal activity.

此次搜捕是美国和盟国执法机构的最新此类行动；多年来，美国和盟国执法机构一直试图关闭暗网论坛，以遏制猖獗的药品非法贩运、勒索软件攻击和其他刑事犯罪活动，但成效有限。

Security experts have observed criminals quickly finding another marketplace shortly after one goes under. The October 2013 seizure of Silk Road was considered a watershed operation at the time, but criminals soon found a similar option in the AlphaBay marketplace until it, too, was knocked offline in a law-enforcement operation in 2017.

安全专家观察到，犯罪分子在一个市场平台被取缔后很快就会找到另一个市场平台。2013年10月查封Silk Road在当时被认为是一次分水岭式的行动，但犯罪分子很快在AlphaBay市场平台找到了类似的选择，直到后者在2017年的一次执法行动中也被打掉。

Attorney General Merrick Garland acknowledged that criminals are often able to reconstitute quickly but said that the expanding law-enforcement pressure was making it harder for replacement marketplaces to spin up.

美国司法部长加兰德(Merrick Garland)承认，犯罪分子往往能够迅速重新组织起来，但他说，随着执法压力不断扩大，替代性的市场平台更难运转起来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

“There is a bit of a whack-a-mole problem here, and we are whacking as hard as we can,” Mr. Garland said. “We do believe it is having an impact.”

“这有点像打地鼠，我们竭尽全力重拳出击，”加兰德说。“我们确实相信这正在产生影响。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The Justice Department’s operation was coordinated with other agencies including Europol, which said European law-enforcement authorities seized “Monopoly Market,” a marketplace operating on the dark web, a network of websites that uses anonymity software to hide users’ locations. Customers on darknet forums use cryptocurrency to pay for illegal goods such as drugs or services such as malware for cyberattacks, making it sometimes difficult for investigators to track them down.

司法部的行动是与包括欧洲刑警组织(Europol)在内的其他机构协同进行的。欧洲刑警组织表示，该机构查封了“Monopoly Market”，这是一个在暗网上运营的市场平台。暗网是一个使用匿名软件隐藏用户位置的互联网网络。暗网论坛上的用户使用加密货币支付毒品等非法商品或网络攻击恶意软件等服务，这使得调查人员有时难以追踪到他们。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The investigation began in October 2021 and resulted in 153 arrests in the U.S., the Justice Department said, including that of a California man who allegedly used at least nine different marketplaces and employed a network of workers to ship millions of pills laced with fentanyl and methamphetamine to darknet buyers.

美国司法部表示，这项调查始于2021年10月，导致153人在美国被捕，其中包括一名加州男子，据称他使用了至少九个不同的市场平台并雇佣了一个工人网络，向暗网买家运送数百万粒掺有芬太尼和甲基苯丙胺的药丸。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

For the first time this year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation began reaching out to darknet narcotics buyers “to let them know that their actions were not anonymous and to warn them about the perils of the purchases they made,” FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate said, as dealers increasingly cut their product with potentially deadly doses of fentanyl.

随着毒贩越来越多地售卖掺有致命剂量芬太尼的产品，美国联邦调查局(FBI)副局长Paul Abbate称，FBI今年首次开始接触暗网毒品买家，“让他们知道，他们的行为不是匿名的，并警告他们购买此类毒品的危险”。

The pace of takedowns has intensified. Last year, for example, U.S. and German partners shut down Hydra Market, which officials described at the time as one of the world’s largest darknet marketplaces, accounting for 80% of all darknet-related crypto transactions. Hydra was said to mainly serve Russian-speaking countries, as have some other seized marketplaces.

查禁此类毒品的速度已经加快了。例如，去年美国和德国联手关闭了Hydra Market，官员们当时将其描述为全球最大的暗网市场平台之一，占所有与暗网相关加密货币交易的80%。据称Hydra主要服务于俄语国家，其他一些被查获的市场平台也是如此。

Darknet seizures are part of a broader Biden administration strategy to curtail crypto-fueled crime, one that has also included sanctioning a number of crypto exchanges, also largely operated in Russia, such as Suex OTC, which was accused of helping to launder ransomware payments.

打掉暗网，是拜登(Biden)政府遏制加密货币相关犯罪行为的更广泛战略的一部分，该战略还包括制裁一些主要在俄罗斯运营的加密货币交易所，比如Suex OTC，该交易所被控帮助勒索软件洗钱。

Increasingly, investigators have been able to lix cryptocurrency use to criminals, challenging the notion that bitcoin and similar products provide anonymity.

调查人员逐渐可以将加密货币的使用与犯罪分子联系起来，这对比特币和类似产品提供匿名性的固有观念构成挑战。

The Justice Department has increasingly focused more resources on crypto-supported crime since bitcoin and other currencies have become more appealing to criminals, as they have exploded in both value and popularity over the past decade.

随着比特币和其他货币对犯罪分子的吸引力增强，司法部逐渐将更多资源集中在受加密货币支持的犯罪活动上；在过去十年里，比特币和其他货币的价值及受欢迎程度都出现了爆炸式增长。
【为什么说美国银行业乱象尚未结束？】

The panic phase of the past month’s banking crisis may be ending. The big question now is how much of a hit the economy faces from any lending pullback. The answer may not be clear for months.

过去一个月美国银行业危机引起的恐慌可能已近尾声。但现在的主要问题是，如果贷款投放减少，对经济的打击有多大？答案可能要到几个月后才会明朗。

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank one month ago disrupted an already fragile equilibrium because many banks hadn’t raised deposit rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively lifted short-term interest rates to fight high inflation.

一个月前硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)和Signature Bank相继倒闭，打破了业内本就脆弱的平衡状态，因为在美联储积极提高短期利率以抗击高通胀之际，许多银行尚未提高存款利率。

Depositor runs on both banks led customers at other small or regional banks, including corporate treasurers that maintained large payroll accounts, to question whether they should move uninsured deposits to the big money-center banks that are subject to tougher regulation.

这两家银行遭遇储户挤兑，导致其他小型或地区性银行的客户，包括维护大量工资账户的公司财务主管，开始考虑是否应将未受保存款转移到监管更严格的大型货币中心银行。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

So far, bank earning reports last week showed regional lenders, assisted by a quick and extraordinary government response that implicitly backed all uninsured deposits, have stanched the most severe outflows. Quarterly figures from First Republic Bank, whose shares were hardest hit last month, are due to be reported Monday. They will be heavily scrutinized for signs that the worst of the current turmoil has passed.

到目前为止，上周公布的银行财报显示，得益于政府作出的迅速且非同寻常的反应，即暗中支持所有未受保存款，地区性银行止住了最严重的资金外流。First Republic Bank (FRC)的季度财报已于周一公布，该行股价上个月受到的打击最大。外界密切关注这些财报数据，从中寻找本轮动荡高峰已过的迹象。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

But a slow-and-steady erosion of deposits at small and midsize banks could continue now that longtime consumers have awakened to the potential to earn more on their money by moving it to money-market mutual funds.

不过，鉴于中小型银行的长期客户已经意识到将资金转移到货币市场共同基金或许能赚到更多钱，这些银行的存款可能会继续缓慢而稳步地下降。

Higher funding costs for banks will squeeze profits. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate every 10% decline in bank profitability reduces lending by 2%. If the share of Fed interest-rate changes that are passed on to bank deposit rates, sometimes called “deposit betas,” reach levels seen in 2007—the last time the Fed raised rates close to current levels—that could lead to a 3% to 6% decline in lending in the U.S.

融资成本上涨将挤压银行的利润。据高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家估算，银行的利润率每下降10%，贷款发放就会减少2%。如果美联储利率调整传导至银行存款利率的部分（有时称为“存款贝塔系数”）达到2007年的水平，可能导致美国的贷款发放量下降3%到6%；美联储上一次加息至接近当前水平就是在2007年。

Goldman expects that could reduce economic output by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points this year.

高盛预计，这种情况可能令美国今年经济产出减少0.3至0.5个百分点。

The bank’s economists see reasons why deposit betas could be higher than in previous cycles. The speed of recent Fed rate increases may have made inattentive customers suddenly notice higher-yielding alternatives. Mobile banking also has lowered the cost of moving deposits between banks, increasing competition.

高盛的经济学家指出了这一次存款贝塔系数可能高于前几轮周期的原因。美联储近来的加息速度可能使那些不太关注的客户突然注意到还有收益率更高的替代品。线上银行业务也降低了在银行之间转移存款的成本，加剧了银行间的竞争。

Deposit rates tend to peak around two to three quarters after the Fed stops raising its benchmark federal-funds rate, which suggests that they could continue to rise through the end of this year. Fed officials have signaled they are likely to raise the fed-funds rate at their meeting May 2-3 to just above 5% before entertaining a pause.

存款利率往往在美联储停止提高基准联邦基金利率后的两到三个季度里达到峰值，这意味着美国的存款利率可能将继续上升直至今年年底。美联储官员已经暗示，他们有可能在5月2-3日的政策会议上将联邦基金利率提高到略高于5%的水平，然后才进入暂停加息状态。

Small and midsize banks losing a cheap source of funds through deposit flight could face pressure to raise capital. But that is less attractive when stock prices have fallen, and banks that have lost significant stock-market capitalization may find they can’t raise capital.

由于存款外逃而失去廉价资金来源的中小型银行可能面临筹资难的压力。但在美股价格已经走低的时候，通过股市融资就不那么有吸引力了，而那些股票市值大量缩水的银行可能会发现它们无法筹到资金。

Loan-to-deposit ratios sit near 80% for many small banks compared with 60% for large banks, said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Large banks with more deposits have less reason to worry about losing them and are more likely to reduce their securities holdings rather than loans if they need to shrink their balance sheets, he said.

TS Lombard的首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz说，许多小银行的贷存比率接近80%，相比之下，大银行的贷存比率为60%。他表示，拥有更多存款的大银行没有多少理由担心失去存款，如果需要收缩资产负债表，它们更有可能减持证券，而不是减少贷款。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

For hundreds of smaller banks, the likely solution will be to reduce lending. “What’s going on nationwide is every one of these banks has either frozen their loan-to-deposit ratio or, more likely, is very intent on shrinking it,” said former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan on a call hosted by investment-banking advisory company Evercore ISI this month. “That is why a lot of small and midsize businesses in this country are getting a phone call saying, politely, ‘At the end of the year, we are not going to be able to give you a loan anymore, or we’re going to reprice your loan.’”

对于数以百计规模较小的银行来说，可能的解决方案将是减少放贷。美国达拉斯联储银行前行长卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)在投行业务咨询公司Evercore ISI本月举行的一次电话会议上称：“全国范围内的情况是，这些银行要么冻结了贷存比率，要么非常倾向于降低贷存比率，而且更有可能是后一种情况。”他表示：“这就是为什么很多美国中小型企业接到了电话，被礼貌地告知，‘到年底，我们将无法再为您提供贷款，或者对您的贷款重新定价。’”

Why is that necessary if the crisis has calmed down? The problem, he said, is that more bank executives realize they may face losses down the road on riskier commercial real-estate loans and commercial and industrial loans for which they haven’t set aside enough of a cushion.

如果危机已经平息，为什么还需要这么做？他说，问题在于，更多的银行高管意识到，未来他们可能会在风险较高的商业房地产贷款以及工商业贷款上面临损失，而他们没有为此留出足够的缓冲。

Interest-rate risk was the catalyst for the SVB panic. Banks bulked up their investment portfolios with mortgage-backed securities or longer-dated Treasurys in 2020 and 2021 as fiscal stimulus sent deposits flooding in. Higher rates lowered the value of those bonds, leading to potentially large unrealized losses on the securities’ holdings.

利率风险是导致硅谷银行相关恐慌的催化剂。在2020年和2021年，随着财政刺激措施推动存款大量涌入，银行通过抵押贷款支持证券或较长期美国国债扩大了投资组合。利率上升导致这些债券的价值下降，进而导致持有这些证券可能面临巨大的未兑现损失。

Depositor anxiety could resurface if and when banks face worries over losses due to loan defaults.

如果银行面临对贷款违约损失的担忧，储户的焦虑情绪可能会重新浮现。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The current bank crisis “is in the second or third inning, not the seventh inning,” said Mr. Kaplan. He thinks the Fed shouldn’t raise interest rates until it has a better view of the fallout, particularly because it would be damaging to have to cut rates later this year to address a bigger crisis. “I’m afraid we’ve got something coming that we don’t fully understand,” he said.

Kaplan称，目前的银行业危机“处于第二或第三回合，而不是第七回合”。他认为，在对后果有更好的认识之前，美联储不应该加息，特别是考虑到如果今年晚些时候美联储不得不降息以应对更大的危机，那就会带来破坏性的影响。他说：“恐怕我们未来会遇到一些我们无法完全理解的事情。”

Any lending squeeze could disproportionately affect small businesses because bigger companies that mostly borrow in the capital markets have seen little change over the past month in credit costs or availability.

任何贷款收缩可能会过多影响小企业，因为大企业主要在资本市场融资，过去一个月它们的信贷成本和融资难度没有什么变化。

Businesses with fewer than 100 employees receive nearly 70% of their commercial and industrial loans from banks with less than $250 billion in assets, and 30% of such lending from banks with less than $10 billion, according to Goldman.

高盛(Goldman)的数据显示，雇员少于100人的企业近70%的工商业贷款来自资产规模低于2,500亿美元的银行，30%的此类贷款来自资产规模低于100亿美元的银行。

The bank’s economists estimate that lix is tighter outside of large cities: In most U.S. counties, small and midsize banks account for 90% of loans to small businesses.

该行的经济学家估计，在大城市以外，这种联系更为紧密：在美国大多数县，中小银行为小企业提供了90%的贷款。

To be sure, the current situation bears little resemblance to the financial crisis of 2008, which was driven by poorly underwritten mortgages that had been bundled into hard-to-value securities. Back then, a dangerous feedback loop developed in which falling prices of mortgage bonds caused banks to stop lending, leading to more foreclosures and, in turn, even lower prices on mortgage bonds.

当然，目前的情况与2008年金融危机没有什么相似之处，那次危机是由不顾风险发放的住房抵押贷款推动，这些贷款被捆绑成难以估值的证券。当时，出现了一个危险的恶性循环，房贷支持债券的价格下跌促使银行停止放贷，导致更多抵押品被取消赎回权，这又进一步压低房贷支持债券的价格。

Worries about banking stress have led government-bond prices to rise and yields to decline, which has trimmed unrealized losses on banks’ securities holdings that sparked the SVB crisis. “This is more of a self-limiting cycle than a self-reinforcing one,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in Montreal.

对银行业压力的担忧导致政府债券价格上涨，收益率下降，这已降低了银行所持证券的未兑现损失，正是此类损失此前引发了硅谷银行危机。蒙特利尔BCA Research的首席全球策略师Peter Berezin表示，这更像是一个自我限制周期，而非自我强化周期。

That makes it possible the current upheaval will instead resemble the savings-and-loan crisis of the late 1980s, when hundreds of lending institutions failed. Problems festered for years but the economy avoided a recession until 1990.

因此目前的动荡可能更类似于20世纪80年代末的储贷危机，当时数以百计的贷款机构倒闭。相关问题发酵了数年，但美国经济直到1990年才陷入衰退。