如何防止经济危机?（一）
正文翻译
How do you prevent an economic crisis?
如何防止经济危机?
如何防止经济危机?
评论翻译
Owen Ross
Preventing an economic crisis is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires a coordinated effort from various stakeholders, including policymakers, regulators, businesses, and consumers. Here are some possible ways to prevent an economic crisis:
Strengthening Financial Regulations: One of the primary causes of economic crises is financial market instability, which can lead to asset bubbles, excessive borrowing, and risky investments. To prevent this, policymakers and regulators can enforce stricter rules on financial institutions and promote transparency and accountability in the financial sector.
Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability: Macroeconomic stability is essential for preventing economic crises. Governments can maintain stable inflation rates, avoid excessive budget deficits and debt levels, and ensure stable exchange rates to prevent market volatility.
Promoting Diversification and Resilience: Diversification of the economy and financial system can help prevent economic crises by reducing dependence on a single sector or market. Building resilience through risk management and contingency planning can also help minimize the impact of economic shocks.
Stimulating Economic Growth: Economic growth can reduce the risk of an economic crisis by increasing employment, income, and consumer confidence. Governments can stimulate economic growth through fiscal and monetary policies that promote investment, innovation, and productivity.
Improving Financial Education: Improving financial literacy can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances and reduce the risk of engaging in risky financial practices.
Ultimately, preventing an economic crisis requires a long-term commitment to promoting stability, sustainability, and resilience in the economy and financial system.
预防经济危机是一个复杂而多方面的问题，需要包括政策制定者、监管机构、企业和消费者在内的各种利益相关者的协调努力。以下是防止经济危机方面可能的一些方法：
加强金融监管：经济危机的主要原因之一是金融市场不稳定，这可能导致资产泡沫、过度借贷和风险投资。为了防止这种情况，政策制定者和监管机构可以对金融机构实施更严格的规则，并促进金融部门的透明度和问责制。
维持宏观经济稳定：宏观经济稳定对防止经济危机至关重要。政府可以保持稳定的通货膨胀率，避免过度的预算赤字和债务水平，并确保稳定的汇率以防止市场波动。
促进多样化和恢复力：经济和金融体系的多样化可以减少对单一部门或市场的依赖，从而有助于防止经济危机。通过风险管理和应急计划建立恢复力也有助于将经济冲击的影响降至最低。
刺激经济增长：经济增长可以通过增加就业、收入和消费者信心来降低经济危机的风险。政府可以通过促进投资、创新和生产力的财政和货币政策来刺激经济增长。
改善金融教育：提高金融知识可以帮助个人和企业对自己的财务做出明智的决定，并减少从事有风险的金融活动的风险。
归根结底，预防经济危机需要长期致力于促进经济和金融体系的稳定、可持续性和恢复力。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Preventing an economic crisis is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires a coordinated effort from various stakeholders, including policymakers, regulators, businesses, and consumers. Here are some possible ways to prevent an economic crisis:
Strengthening Financial Regulations: One of the primary causes of economic crises is financial market instability, which can lead to asset bubbles, excessive borrowing, and risky investments. To prevent this, policymakers and regulators can enforce stricter rules on financial institutions and promote transparency and accountability in the financial sector.
Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability: Macroeconomic stability is essential for preventing economic crises. Governments can maintain stable inflation rates, avoid excessive budget deficits and debt levels, and ensure stable exchange rates to prevent market volatility.
Promoting Diversification and Resilience: Diversification of the economy and financial system can help prevent economic crises by reducing dependence on a single sector or market. Building resilience through risk management and contingency planning can also help minimize the impact of economic shocks.
Stimulating Economic Growth: Economic growth can reduce the risk of an economic crisis by increasing employment, income, and consumer confidence. Governments can stimulate economic growth through fiscal and monetary policies that promote investment, innovation, and productivity.
Improving Financial Education: Improving financial literacy can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances and reduce the risk of engaging in risky financial practices.
Ultimately, preventing an economic crisis requires a long-term commitment to promoting stability, sustainability, and resilience in the economy and financial system.
预防经济危机是一个复杂而多方面的问题，需要包括政策制定者、监管机构、企业和消费者在内的各种利益相关者的协调努力。以下是防止经济危机方面可能的一些方法：
加强金融监管：经济危机的主要原因之一是金融市场不稳定，这可能导致资产泡沫、过度借贷和风险投资。为了防止这种情况，政策制定者和监管机构可以对金融机构实施更严格的规则，并促进金融部门的透明度和问责制。
维持宏观经济稳定：宏观经济稳定对防止经济危机至关重要。政府可以保持稳定的通货膨胀率，避免过度的预算赤字和债务水平，并确保稳定的汇率以防止市场波动。
促进多样化和恢复力：经济和金融体系的多样化可以减少对单一部门或市场的依赖，从而有助于防止经济危机。通过风险管理和应急计划建立恢复力也有助于将经济冲击的影响降至最低。
刺激经济增长：经济增长可以通过增加就业、收入和消费者信心来降低经济危机的风险。政府可以通过促进投资、创新和生产力的财政和货币政策来刺激经济增长。
改善金融教育：提高金融知识可以帮助个人和企业对自己的财务做出明智的决定，并减少从事有风险的金融活动的风险。
归根结底，预防经济危机需要长期致力于促进经济和金融体系的稳定、可持续性和恢复力。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Anubhav Jain
What are some ways of getting out of financial difficulty quickly?
I know a grocery shop owner. He owned a large scale industry earlier.
Once his industry went in huge losses and there were enormous debts as well.
He went bankrupt and his every asset was sold off.
He was left with a petty amount.
He started a small grocery shop leaving aside his ego of being a big industrialist.
Made immense efforts, started his shop at 6 am and shut it down after 10 pm each day.
Today, after years, he has a chain of stores and is much more well settled than earlier.
The learning here is that, when you are in a financial distress, drop your ego, and start small, you will always get an opportunity to survive which is much better than prolonged sufferings.
And no one has seen the future so keep making genuine efforts.
Answering this question-
You need to drop your ego and start climbing from a few steps down to get out of financial distress quickly.
有哪些方法可以快速摆脱财务困境？
我认识一个杂货店老板。他早些时候拥有一个大型产业。
有一次，他的产业遭受了巨大的损失，还欠下了巨额债务。
他破产了，所有资产都被卖掉了。
他只剩下一小笔钱。
他开了一家小杂货店，抛开了他作为大实业家的自负。
他付出了巨大的努力，每天早上6点开始开店，晚上10点后关门。
多年后的今天，他拥有了一家连锁店，而且比以前安定得多。
这里学到的是，当你陷入经济困境时，放下自我，从小处着手，你总会有生存的机会，这比长期的痛苦要好得多。
没有人看到过未来，所以继续努力吧。
回答这个问题：
你需要放下自我，从头开始攀爬，以迅速摆脱财务困境。
What are some ways of getting out of financial difficulty quickly?
I know a grocery shop owner. He owned a large scale industry earlier.
Once his industry went in huge losses and there were enormous debts as well.
He went bankrupt and his every asset was sold off.
He was left with a petty amount.
He started a small grocery shop leaving aside his ego of being a big industrialist.
Made immense efforts, started his shop at 6 am and shut it down after 10 pm each day.
Today, after years, he has a chain of stores and is much more well settled than earlier.
The learning here is that, when you are in a financial distress, drop your ego, and start small, you will always get an opportunity to survive which is much better than prolonged sufferings.
And no one has seen the future so keep making genuine efforts.
Answering this question-
You need to drop your ego and start climbing from a few steps down to get out of financial distress quickly.
有哪些方法可以快速摆脱财务困境？
我认识一个杂货店老板。他早些时候拥有一个大型产业。
有一次，他的产业遭受了巨大的损失，还欠下了巨额债务。
他破产了，所有资产都被卖掉了。
他只剩下一小笔钱。
他开了一家小杂货店，抛开了他作为大实业家的自负。
他付出了巨大的努力，每天早上6点开始开店，晚上10点后关门。
多年后的今天，他拥有了一家连锁店，而且比以前安定得多。
这里学到的是，当你陷入经济困境时，放下自我，从小处着手，你总会有生存的机会，这比长期的痛苦要好得多。
没有人看到过未来，所以继续努力吧。
回答这个问题：
你需要放下自我，从头开始攀爬，以迅速摆脱财务困境。
Rodolfo
Not too many weeks ago I got a hold of a stack of the “new” Venezuelan Bolívares - that is, the new bills they had to come up with after begrudgingly admitting inflation was out of control.
When I saw these bills I was very surprised, both because I hadn't seen any up until that point, and also because I was dumbfounded at how little they amounted to.
If memory does not fail what you're seeing is close to 800.000 Venezuelan Bolívares, maybe a bit more. A stack that once put all together would look like a brick of some 2 inches thick - not small by any means.
They represent the government not being able to hide the sheer volume of the hyperinflation. Before them the biggest bill was 100 Bolívares, which made paying for things a difficult task considering everything costs thousands. From that bill the bubble grew so big that they had no choice but to finally print all these, from 1.000 to, as you can see, to 100.000 Bolívares. even these new bills don't cut it
就在几周前，我拿到了一堆“新”委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔——也就是说，在不情愿地承认通货膨胀失控后，他们不得不提出新的钞票。
当我看到这些钞票时，我感到非常惊讶，因为在那之前我从来没有见过这些钞票，也因为我惊讶于它们的价值如此之少。
如果没记错的话你看到的是接近80万委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔，也许更多一点。一旦把它们堆在一起，看起来就像一块大约2英寸厚的砖——无论如何都不算少了。
它们代表着政府无法掩盖恶性通货膨胀的严重程度。在它们出现之前，最大面值钞票是100 玻利瓦尔，这使得支付东西成为一项艰巨的任务，因为每件东西都要花费数千玻利瓦尔。从新钞票推出开始，泡沫变得如此之大，以至于他们别无选择，只能最终打印所有面值货币：如你所见，从1000到100000玻利瓦尔，即使是这些新钞票也不能解决这个问题。
Not too many weeks ago I got a hold of a stack of the “new” Venezuelan Bolívares - that is, the new bills they had to come up with after begrudgingly admitting inflation was out of control.
When I saw these bills I was very surprised, both because I hadn't seen any up until that point, and also because I was dumbfounded at how little they amounted to.
If memory does not fail what you're seeing is close to 800.000 Venezuelan Bolívares, maybe a bit more. A stack that once put all together would look like a brick of some 2 inches thick - not small by any means.
They represent the government not being able to hide the sheer volume of the hyperinflation. Before them the biggest bill was 100 Bolívares, which made paying for things a difficult task considering everything costs thousands. From that bill the bubble grew so big that they had no choice but to finally print all these, from 1.000 to, as you can see, to 100.000 Bolívares. even these new bills don't cut it
就在几周前，我拿到了一堆“新”委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔——也就是说，在不情愿地承认通货膨胀失控后，他们不得不提出新的钞票。
当我看到这些钞票时，我感到非常惊讶，因为在那之前我从来没有见过这些钞票，也因为我惊讶于它们的价值如此之少。
如果没记错的话你看到的是接近80万委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔，也许更多一点。一旦把它们堆在一起，看起来就像一块大约2英寸厚的砖——无论如何都不算少了。
它们代表着政府无法掩盖恶性通货膨胀的严重程度。在它们出现之前，最大面值钞票是100 玻利瓦尔，这使得支付东西成为一项艰巨的任务，因为每件东西都要花费数千玻利瓦尔。从新钞票推出开始，泡沫变得如此之大，以至于他们别无选择，只能最终打印所有面值货币：如你所见，从1000到100000玻利瓦尔，即使是这些新钞票也不能解决这个问题。
Peter Livingston
Could Bitcoin become the cause of the next financial crisis?
Over the course of its life, Bitcoin has doubled in value every 8 months, on average. If this rate of growth continues, then Bitcoin will be worth more than all the money in the world in about 6 years.
More than likely, this won’t happen. Bitcoin will fill only a market niche, such as gold.
But what if it does keep growing, and becomes “the future of money?”
Here’s an easy question: if you live in Venezuela, and you have the choice between owning money that loses 90% of its value every year, and money that tends to grow in value - which one would you choose? Obviously, you would choose the one that grows in value.
Here’s a harder question: if you live in the US, and you have the choice between owning money that loses 2% of its value per year, and money that tends to grow in value - which one would you choose? Assuming equal volatility, perceived risk, etc. - I would again choose the one that grows in value.
Right now, Bitcoin is extremely volatile. But this volatility will decline over time (it already has declined significantly) as it continues to grow in size and adoption, more infrastructure is built out, and futures/derivatives come online. Bitcoin is already less volatile than the Venezuelan Bolivar, and I can see a future in which it becomes less volatile than the US Dollar.
So assuming volatility declines, I don’t see how an inflationary currency (fiat) and an appreciating currency (crypto) can coexist. All else being equal, any rational person will dump their inflationary currency for the “good” currency that has a limited supply (and therefore tends to grow in value over time).
比特币会成为下一次金融危机的原因吗？
在其生命周期中，比特币的价值平均每8个月翻一番。如果这种增长速度继续下去，那么比特币的价值将在大约6年内超过世界上所有的钱。
更有可能的是，这不会发生。比特币只会填补像黄金这样的利基市场。
但如果它真的继续增长，并成为“未来货币”怎么办？
这里有一个简单的问题:如果你住在委内瑞拉，你选择持有每年损失90%价值的货币，还是持有倾向于增值的货币（比特币），你会选择哪一个？你显然会选择价值会增值的货币。
这里有一个更难的问题:如果你住在美国，你可以在持有每年损失2%的货币和倾向于增值的货币之间做出选择——你会选择哪一个?假设波动性、感知风险等因素相等，我还是会选择增值的货币。
目前，比特币非常不稳定。但这种波动性将随着时间的推移而下降(它已经显著下降)，因为它的规模和接受度将继续增长，更多的基础结构将被建立，期货/衍生品将上线。比特币的波动性已经低于委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔，我可以看到未来比特币的波动性将低于美元。
因此，假设波动性下降，我看不出通货膨胀货币（法定货币）和升值货币（加密货币）如何共存。在其他条件相同的情况下，任何理性的人都会抛售通胀货币，转而购买供应有限的“好”货币(因此往往会随着时间的推移而升值)。
Could Bitcoin become the cause of the next financial crisis?
Over the course of its life, Bitcoin has doubled in value every 8 months, on average. If this rate of growth continues, then Bitcoin will be worth more than all the money in the world in about 6 years.
More than likely, this won’t happen. Bitcoin will fill only a market niche, such as gold.
But what if it does keep growing, and becomes “the future of money?”
Here’s an easy question: if you live in Venezuela, and you have the choice between owning money that loses 90% of its value every year, and money that tends to grow in value - which one would you choose? Obviously, you would choose the one that grows in value.
Here’s a harder question: if you live in the US, and you have the choice between owning money that loses 2% of its value per year, and money that tends to grow in value - which one would you choose? Assuming equal volatility, perceived risk, etc. - I would again choose the one that grows in value.
Right now, Bitcoin is extremely volatile. But this volatility will decline over time (it already has declined significantly) as it continues to grow in size and adoption, more infrastructure is built out, and futures/derivatives come online. Bitcoin is already less volatile than the Venezuelan Bolivar, and I can see a future in which it becomes less volatile than the US Dollar.
So assuming volatility declines, I don’t see how an inflationary currency (fiat) and an appreciating currency (crypto) can coexist. All else being equal, any rational person will dump their inflationary currency for the “good” currency that has a limited supply (and therefore tends to grow in value over time).
比特币会成为下一次金融危机的原因吗？
在其生命周期中，比特币的价值平均每8个月翻一番。如果这种增长速度继续下去，那么比特币的价值将在大约6年内超过世界上所有的钱。
更有可能的是，这不会发生。比特币只会填补像黄金这样的利基市场。
但如果它真的继续增长，并成为“未来货币”怎么办？
这里有一个简单的问题:如果你住在委内瑞拉，你选择持有每年损失90%价值的货币，还是持有倾向于增值的货币（比特币），你会选择哪一个？你显然会选择价值会增值的货币。
这里有一个更难的问题:如果你住在美国，你可以在持有每年损失2%的货币和倾向于增值的货币之间做出选择——你会选择哪一个?假设波动性、感知风险等因素相等，我还是会选择增值的货币。
目前，比特币非常不稳定。但这种波动性将随着时间的推移而下降(它已经显著下降)，因为它的规模和接受度将继续增长，更多的基础结构将被建立，期货/衍生品将上线。比特币的波动性已经低于委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔，我可以看到未来比特币的波动性将低于美元。
因此，假设波动性下降，我看不出通货膨胀货币（法定货币）和升值货币（加密货币）如何共存。在其他条件相同的情况下，任何理性的人都会抛售通胀货币，转而购买供应有限的“好”货币(因此往往会随着时间的推移而升值)。
So I can see a possible progression, where first Bitcoin eats the weakest fiat currencies, and works its way up and eventually eats the strongest, such as the Dollar, Euro, and Yen. And I think it will accelerate over time, as more and more people catch on and dump their fiat to get more of the “good” currency. If this happens, all the world’s fiat currencies will spin into hyperinflation.
So then, in that future state of the world, we would have absolute chaos. Everyone holding Bitcoin would be just fine, even become wealthy. But everyone who is still stuck in a fiat economy will be screwed. All fiat debt, such as mortgages or bonds will become worthless - which means that anyone who holds that debt (such as banks) will be in deep trouble. But on the flip side, anyone who owes debt will see their debt vanish.
In fact, maybe the largest countries in the world would love for this to happen. The US, Japan, and many other major countries owe an unsustainable amount of debt. Wouldn’t it be nice if that debt suddenly disappeared?
So here’s my recommendation if you see this future state of the world coming ( buying Bitcoin/crypto): 1) get rid of all the fiat-denominated debt you own (such as bonds), 2) borrow as much fiat-denominated debt as you can (i.e. get a mortgage), and 3) remain diversified in value-producing assets, such as stocks and real estate. Stocks and real estate will still have value - they will just pay their dividends in a different currency in the future.
所以我可以看到一个可能的进展，比特币首先会吃掉最弱的法定货币，然后逐渐上升，最终吃掉最强的货币，比如美元、欧元和日元。我认为随着时间的推移，它会加速，因为越来越多的人会跟上，并抛弃他们的法定货币，以获得更多的“好”货币。如果发生这种情况，世界上所有的法定货币都将陷入恶性通货膨胀。
因此，在未来的世界状态下，我们将陷入绝对的混乱。每个持有比特币的人都会很好，甚至会变得富有。但是，所有仍然困在法定经济中的国家都将完蛋。所有法定债务，如抵押贷款或债券将变得一文不值——这意味着任何持有这些债务的人(如银行)都将陷入困境。但另一方面，任何欠债的人都会看到他们的债务消失。
事实上，也许世界上最大的国家都希望这种情况发生。美国、日本和许多其他主要国家都欠下了不可持续的巨额债务。如果债务突然消失不是很好吗?
因此，如果你看到未来世界的这种状态即将到来（购买比特币/加密货币），我的建议是：
1、摆脱你拥有的所有法定货币计价的债务（如债券）；
2、尽可能多地借入法定货币计价债务（即获得抵押贷款）；
3、在有价值的资产上保持多元化，比如股票和房地产。股票和房地产仍然有价值——只是在未来用不同的货币支付股息。
So then, in that future state of the world, we would have absolute chaos. Everyone holding Bitcoin would be just fine, even become wealthy. But everyone who is still stuck in a fiat economy will be screwed. All fiat debt, such as mortgages or bonds will become worthless - which means that anyone who holds that debt (such as banks) will be in deep trouble. But on the flip side, anyone who owes debt will see their debt vanish.
In fact, maybe the largest countries in the world would love for this to happen. The US, Japan, and many other major countries owe an unsustainable amount of debt. Wouldn’t it be nice if that debt suddenly disappeared?
So here’s my recommendation if you see this future state of the world coming ( buying Bitcoin/crypto): 1) get rid of all the fiat-denominated debt you own (such as bonds), 2) borrow as much fiat-denominated debt as you can (i.e. get a mortgage), and 3) remain diversified in value-producing assets, such as stocks and real estate. Stocks and real estate will still have value - they will just pay their dividends in a different currency in the future.
所以我可以看到一个可能的进展，比特币首先会吃掉最弱的法定货币，然后逐渐上升，最终吃掉最强的货币，比如美元、欧元和日元。我认为随着时间的推移，它会加速，因为越来越多的人会跟上，并抛弃他们的法定货币，以获得更多的“好”货币。如果发生这种情况，世界上所有的法定货币都将陷入恶性通货膨胀。
因此，在未来的世界状态下，我们将陷入绝对的混乱。每个持有比特币的人都会很好，甚至会变得富有。但是，所有仍然困在法定经济中的国家都将完蛋。所有法定债务，如抵押贷款或债券将变得一文不值——这意味着任何持有这些债务的人(如银行)都将陷入困境。但另一方面，任何欠债的人都会看到他们的债务消失。
事实上，也许世界上最大的国家都希望这种情况发生。美国、日本和许多其他主要国家都欠下了不可持续的巨额债务。如果债务突然消失不是很好吗?
因此，如果你看到未来世界的这种状态即将到来（购买比特币/加密货币），我的建议是：
1、摆脱你拥有的所有法定货币计价的债务（如债券）；
2、尽可能多地借入法定货币计价债务（即获得抵押贷款）；
3、在有价值的资产上保持多元化，比如股票和房地产。股票和房地产仍然有价值——只是在未来用不同的货币支付股息。
Federico Sellitti
Could Bitcoin become the cause of the next financial crisis?
What I’m going to write is a story. A story called “reality”. It is a sad story. Very sad.
To understand if Bitcoin can cause the next financial crisis, we need to analyze what caused last financial crisis, the one in 2008.
In September 2008, the bankruptcy of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers and the downfall of AIG, the world's largest insurance company, triggered a global financial crisis. This caused a global recession, which cost the world tens of trillions of dollars, 30 million people unemployed and doubled the national debt in the United States, not to talk about other countries, especially in Europe.
Was that an accident that could not be controlled? No! It was caused by an industry that was out of control and by people who wanted to get more and more because their millions were not enough. People who supposed to regulate and control the financial stability of the Country.
This makes me think of a Latin phrase: "quis custodiet ipsos custodes?", which can be translated to: "who will guard the guards themselves?".
比特币会成为下一次金融危机的原因吗？
我要写的是一个故事。一个叫做“现实”的故事。这是一个悲伤的故事，非常令人难过。
为了了解比特币是否会引发下一次金融危机，我们需要分析是什么导致了上次金融危机，即2008年的金融危机。
2008年9月，美国投资银行雷曼兄弟破产，全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团 (AIG)倒闭，引发了全球金融危机。这导致了一场全球经济衰退，给世界造成了数万亿美元的损失，3000万人失业，美国的国债翻了一番，更不用说其他国家，尤其是欧洲了。
那是一起无法控制的事故吗？不，这是由一个失控的行业和那些因为数百万美元不够而想要获得更多的人造成的，是那些本应监管和控制国家金融稳定的人造成的。
这让我想到了一个拉丁短语：“quis custodiet ipsos custodes？”，可以翻译为：“谁应该监督监督者自己？”。
Could Bitcoin become the cause of the next financial crisis?
What I’m going to write is a story. A story called “reality”. It is a sad story. Very sad.
To understand if Bitcoin can cause the next financial crisis, we need to analyze what caused last financial crisis, the one in 2008.
In September 2008, the bankruptcy of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers and the downfall of AIG, the world's largest insurance company, triggered a global financial crisis. This caused a global recession, which cost the world tens of trillions of dollars, 30 million people unemployed and doubled the national debt in the United States, not to talk about other countries, especially in Europe.
Was that an accident that could not be controlled? No! It was caused by an industry that was out of control and by people who wanted to get more and more because their millions were not enough. People who supposed to regulate and control the financial stability of the Country.
This makes me think of a Latin phrase: "quis custodiet ipsos custodes?", which can be translated to: "who will guard the guards themselves?".
比特币会成为下一次金融危机的原因吗？
我要写的是一个故事。一个叫做“现实”的故事。这是一个悲伤的故事，非常令人难过。
为了了解比特币是否会引发下一次金融危机，我们需要分析是什么导致了上次金融危机，即2008年的金融危机。
2008年9月，美国投资银行雷曼兄弟破产，全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团 (AIG)倒闭，引发了全球金融危机。这导致了一场全球经济衰退，给世界造成了数万亿美元的损失，3000万人失业，美国的国债翻了一番，更不用说其他国家，尤其是欧洲了。
那是一起无法控制的事故吗？不，这是由一个失控的行业和那些因为数百万美元不够而想要获得更多的人造成的，是那些本应监管和控制国家金融稳定的人造成的。
这让我想到了一个拉丁短语：“quis custodiet ipsos custodes？”，可以翻译为：“谁应该监督监督者自己？”。
1980–1989
It is known as 2008 financial crisis, but when did it start? I believe that the first important mistake was made in 1982, when the Reagan administration deregulated savings-and-loan companies, allowing them to make risky investments with depositors' money.
The FDIC Banking Review reports that 1,043 out of 3,234 savings-and-loan companies collapsed from 1986 to 1995, creating a crisis that today is known as S&L crisis (Saving and loan crisis).
By the end of the '80s, hundreds of these companies had already failed. This cost the taxpayers $124 billion and cost many people their life savings.
The most popular case was Charles Keating. Keating was investigated by regulators and he hired an economist to uate his business plan.
This economist publicly praised Keating and said that there was no risk in allowing Keating to invest customers' money.
Keating also reportedly paid this economist $40,000. Charles Keating went to prison shortly afterwards... the name of the economist? Alan Greenspan.
What happened to him? He was appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve by Reagan. Greenspan was reappointed by presidents Clinton and George W. Bush.
1980年至1989年
它被称为2008年金融危机，但它是什么时候开始的？我认为，第一个重要错误发生在1982年，当时里根政府解除了对储蓄和贷款公司的管制，允许它们用储户的钱进行风险投资。
联邦存款保险公司银行业审查报告称，1986年至1995年间，3234家储蓄和贷款公司中有1043家倒闭，造成了今天被称为S&L危机（储蓄和贷款危机）的危机。
到80年代末，已有数百家这样的公司倒闭。这让纳税人损失了1240亿美元，这可是许多人的毕生积蓄。
最通俗的案例是 查尔斯·基廷（Charles Keating）。查尔斯·基廷（Charles Keating）接受了监管机构的调查，并聘请了一位经济学家来评估他的商业计划。
这位经济学家公开赞扬了基廷，并表示允许基廷用客户的钱去投资，这是没有风险的。
据报道，基廷还向这位经济学家支付了4万美元。查尔斯·基廷不久后进了监狱。经济学家的名字是艾伦·格林斯潘。
他怎么了？他被里根任命为美联储主席，克林顿总统和布什总统再次任命格林斯潘。
It is known as 2008 financial crisis, but when did it start? I believe that the first important mistake was made in 1982, when the Reagan administration deregulated savings-and-loan companies, allowing them to make risky investments with depositors' money.
The FDIC Banking Review reports that 1,043 out of 3,234 savings-and-loan companies collapsed from 1986 to 1995, creating a crisis that today is known as S&L crisis (Saving and loan crisis).
By the end of the '80s, hundreds of these companies had already failed. This cost the taxpayers $124 billion and cost many people their life savings.
The most popular case was Charles Keating. Keating was investigated by regulators and he hired an economist to uate his business plan.
This economist publicly praised Keating and said that there was no risk in allowing Keating to invest customers' money.
Keating also reportedly paid this economist $40,000. Charles Keating went to prison shortly afterwards... the name of the economist? Alan Greenspan.
What happened to him? He was appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve by Reagan. Greenspan was reappointed by presidents Clinton and George W. Bush.
1980年至1989年
它被称为2008年金融危机，但它是什么时候开始的？我认为，第一个重要错误发生在1982年，当时里根政府解除了对储蓄和贷款公司的管制，允许它们用储户的钱进行风险投资。
联邦存款保险公司银行业审查报告称，1986年至1995年间，3234家储蓄和贷款公司中有1043家倒闭，造成了今天被称为S&L危机（储蓄和贷款危机）的危机。
到80年代末，已有数百家这样的公司倒闭。这让纳税人损失了1240亿美元，这可是许多人的毕生积蓄。
最通俗的案例是 查尔斯·基廷（Charles Keating）。查尔斯·基廷（Charles Keating）接受了监管机构的调查，并聘请了一位经济学家来评估他的商业计划。
这位经济学家公开赞扬了基廷，并表示允许基廷用客户的钱去投资，这是没有风险的。
据报道，基廷还向这位经济学家支付了4万美元。查尔斯·基廷不久后进了监狱。经济学家的名字是艾伦·格林斯潘。
他怎么了？他被里根任命为美联储主席，克林顿总统和布什总统再次任命格林斯潘。
1990–1999
The deregulation of the financial system continued with Greenspan, till we arrive at the end of '90s, in which the financial system was consolidated into a few gigantic firms, each of them so large that their failure could threaten the whole system.
What happened during Clinton administration? In 1990, the top 5 banks controlled around 10% of industry assets. In 2000, only Citigroup controlled over 10% of industry assets.
Imagine a giant like Citigroup taking the money of their clients and investing. Billions of dollars moved around the financial system. And this is just one bank.
Was it legal? It wasn't. Citigroup was born by the acquisition of Travellers by Citicorp. This merger violated the Glass-Steagall Act, a law passed after the Great Depression, which prevented banks with consumer deposits from engaging in risky investment-banking activities.
What did Greenspan do about it? Nothing at all. His politics encouraged this greedy behavior. In 1990 the government passed the so called "Citigroup relief act" (the real name was Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act), which overturned the Glass-Steagall Act.
In the 1990s, new financial products were created. They are called derivatives. Warren Buffet said that they created weapons of mass destruction.
With derivatives, bankers could gamble on anything. The rise or fall of gold prices, the rise or fall of oil prices, the rise or fall of housing market... you know where I'm going with this.
They tried to regulate the derivatives in 1998, but the regulation of derivatives transactions was declared ‘unnecessary’.
1990年至1999年
对金融体系的放松管制在格林斯潘任内继续进行，直到90年代末，金融体系被合并为几家大公司，每家公司的规模都非常之大，以至于它们的失败可能威胁到整个体系。
克林顿执政期间发生了什么？1990年，排名前五的银行控制了约10%的行业资产。2000年，仅仅花旗集团控制了超过10%的行业资产。
想象一下，花旗集团这样的巨头拿着客户的钱进行投资。数十亿美元在金融体系中流动，这还只是一家银行。
这合法吗？事实并非如此。花旗集团是由花旗集团收购Travellers而诞生的。这次合并违反了格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案（Glass-Steagall Act，也称作《1933年银行法》），该法案是大萧条后通过的，禁止拥有消费者存款的银行从事高风险的投资银行业务。
格林斯潘对此做了什么？什么都没有做。他的政治立场助长了这种贪婪的行为。1990年，政府通过了所谓的“花旗救济法案”（真名为《金融服务现代化法案》(Gramm-leach-Bliley Act)），推翻了《1933年银行法》。
20世纪90年代，新的金融产品诞生了。它们被称为衍生物。沃伦·巴菲特说，他们制造了大规模杀伤性武器。
有了衍生品，银行家可以赌上任何东西。黄金价格的涨跌，石油价格的涨跌，房地产市场的涨跌……你知道我要说什么。
1998年，他们试图对衍生品进行监管，但对衍生品交易的监管被宣布为“没有必要”。
The deregulation of the financial system continued with Greenspan, till we arrive at the end of '90s, in which the financial system was consolidated into a few gigantic firms, each of them so large that their failure could threaten the whole system.
What happened during Clinton administration? In 1990, the top 5 banks controlled around 10% of industry assets. In 2000, only Citigroup controlled over 10% of industry assets.
Imagine a giant like Citigroup taking the money of their clients and investing. Billions of dollars moved around the financial system. And this is just one bank.
Was it legal? It wasn't. Citigroup was born by the acquisition of Travellers by Citicorp. This merger violated the Glass-Steagall Act, a law passed after the Great Depression, which prevented banks with consumer deposits from engaging in risky investment-banking activities.
What did Greenspan do about it? Nothing at all. His politics encouraged this greedy behavior. In 1990 the government passed the so called "Citigroup relief act" (the real name was Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act), which overturned the Glass-Steagall Act.
In the 1990s, new financial products were created. They are called derivatives. Warren Buffet said that they created weapons of mass destruction.
With derivatives, bankers could gamble on anything. The rise or fall of gold prices, the rise or fall of oil prices, the rise or fall of housing market... you know where I'm going with this.
They tried to regulate the derivatives in 1998, but the regulation of derivatives transactions was declared ‘unnecessary’.
1990年至1999年
对金融体系的放松管制在格林斯潘任内继续进行，直到90年代末，金融体系被合并为几家大公司，每家公司的规模都非常之大，以至于它们的失败可能威胁到整个体系。
克林顿执政期间发生了什么？1990年，排名前五的银行控制了约10%的行业资产。2000年，仅仅花旗集团控制了超过10%的行业资产。
想象一下，花旗集团这样的巨头拿着客户的钱进行投资。数十亿美元在金融体系中流动，这还只是一家银行。
这合法吗？事实并非如此。花旗集团是由花旗集团收购Travellers而诞生的。这次合并违反了格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案（Glass-Steagall Act，也称作《1933年银行法》），该法案是大萧条后通过的，禁止拥有消费者存款的银行从事高风险的投资银行业务。
格林斯潘对此做了什么？什么都没有做。他的政治立场助长了这种贪婪的行为。1990年，政府通过了所谓的“花旗救济法案”（真名为《金融服务现代化法案》(Gramm-leach-Bliley Act)），推翻了《1933年银行法》。
20世纪90年代，新的金融产品诞生了。它们被称为衍生物。沃伦·巴菲特说，他们制造了大规模杀伤性武器。
有了衍生品，银行家可以赌上任何东西。黄金价格的涨跌，石油价格的涨跌，房地产市场的涨跌……你知道我要说什么。
1998年，他们试图对衍生品进行监管，但对衍生品交易的监管被宣布为“没有必要”。
2000–2008
Let's talk about the old and the new system to get a mortgage.
In the old system, when a homeowner paid his/her mortgage every month, the money went to his/her local lender. Since mortgages took decades to repay, lenders were careful.
The new system is more complicated and it has 4 players.
There are home buyers, who ask for the mortgage. Lenders grant the mortgage, but they "sell it" to investment banks. Investment banks combine all the kind of mortgages and loans that they have, such as home mortgages, car loans, student loans and many others, and they create derivatives with them. They create a financial product to invest in.
These derivatives are called CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations).
These CDOs are then sold to investors all around the world. So the real transition of money is from the investors to the home buyers.
In this system, lenders can grant any kind of mortgage, because they are not getting paid anymore by the home buyers, so they don't care.
Investment banks don't care either. They get commissions on each product they can sell to investors. The more mortgages, the more products. The more products, the more money to bankers.
Who is risking in this system? The investors!
This was just risky by itself, but it was not enough for bankers. Investment banks paid rating agencies (Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch mainly) to assure that these products got a rating ranging from BBB to AAA, which means that they are safe investments with a practical chance to lose investors' money that is close to 0.
What happened? So many loans were given to people who could not repay them and with so many billions invested in this financial instrument that was based on house mortgages, the effect was catastrophic.
2000年至2008年
我们来谈谈新旧抵押贷款体系。
在旧体系下，当房主每月支付抵押贷款时，钱就会流向他/她的当地的银行。由于抵押贷款需要几十年才能偿还，贷款人非常谨慎。
新系统更为复杂，有4名参与者。
有些购房者要求抵押贷款。贷款人发放抵押贷款，但他们将其“出售”给投资银行。投资银行将所有类型的抵押贷款和贷款结合起来，如住房抵押贷款、汽车贷款、学生贷款和许多其他贷款，并用它们创建衍生品。他们创造了一种可以投资的金融产品。
这些衍生产品被称为CDO（抵押债券）。
然后，这些CDO被出售给世界各地的投资者。因此，真正的资金转移是从投资者转向购房者。
在这个体系中，贷款人可以发放任何类型的抵押贷款，因为他们不再从购房者那里去收回还款，所以他们不在乎。
投资银行也不在乎。他们可以从每一种可以卖给投资者的产品中获得佣金。抵押贷款越多，产品就越多。产品越多，给银行家的钱就越多。
谁在这个系统里冒风险？投资者们！
这本身就有风险，但对银行家来说还不够。投资银行向评级机构（主要是穆迪、标准普尔和惠誉）支付了费用，以确保这些产品获得BBB至AAA的评级，这意味着它们是安全的投资，损失投资者资金的实际机会接近于0。
会发生什么事?那么多的贷款被发放给了那些无法偿还的人，那么多的资金被投入到这个以房屋抵押贷款为基础的金融工具中，其后果是灾难性的。
Let's talk about the old and the new system to get a mortgage.
In the old system, when a homeowner paid his/her mortgage every month, the money went to his/her local lender. Since mortgages took decades to repay, lenders were careful.
The new system is more complicated and it has 4 players.
There are home buyers, who ask for the mortgage. Lenders grant the mortgage, but they "sell it" to investment banks. Investment banks combine all the kind of mortgages and loans that they have, such as home mortgages, car loans, student loans and many others, and they create derivatives with them. They create a financial product to invest in.
These derivatives are called CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations).
These CDOs are then sold to investors all around the world. So the real transition of money is from the investors to the home buyers.
In this system, lenders can grant any kind of mortgage, because they are not getting paid anymore by the home buyers, so they don't care.
Investment banks don't care either. They get commissions on each product they can sell to investors. The more mortgages, the more products. The more products, the more money to bankers.
Who is risking in this system? The investors!
This was just risky by itself, but it was not enough for bankers. Investment banks paid rating agencies (Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch mainly) to assure that these products got a rating ranging from BBB to AAA, which means that they are safe investments with a practical chance to lose investors' money that is close to 0.
What happened? So many loans were given to people who could not repay them and with so many billions invested in this financial instrument that was based on house mortgages, the effect was catastrophic.
2000年至2008年
我们来谈谈新旧抵押贷款体系。
在旧体系下，当房主每月支付抵押贷款时，钱就会流向他/她的当地的银行。由于抵押贷款需要几十年才能偿还，贷款人非常谨慎。
新系统更为复杂，有4名参与者。
有些购房者要求抵押贷款。贷款人发放抵押贷款，但他们将其“出售”给投资银行。投资银行将所有类型的抵押贷款和贷款结合起来，如住房抵押贷款、汽车贷款、学生贷款和许多其他贷款，并用它们创建衍生品。他们创造了一种可以投资的金融产品。
这些衍生产品被称为CDO（抵押债券）。
然后，这些CDO被出售给世界各地的投资者。因此，真正的资金转移是从投资者转向购房者。
在这个体系中，贷款人可以发放任何类型的抵押贷款，因为他们不再从购房者那里去收回还款，所以他们不在乎。
投资银行也不在乎。他们可以从每一种可以卖给投资者的产品中获得佣金。抵押贷款越多，产品就越多。产品越多，给银行家的钱就越多。
谁在这个系统里冒风险？投资者们！
这本身就有风险，但对银行家来说还不够。投资银行向评级机构（主要是穆迪、标准普尔和惠誉）支付了费用，以确保这些产品获得BBB至AAA的评级，这意味着它们是安全的投资，损失投资者资金的实际机会接近于0。
会发生什么事?那么多的贷款被发放给了那些无法偿还的人，那么多的资金被投入到这个以房屋抵押贷款为基础的金融工具中，其后果是灾难性的。
Today with Bitcoin
What is happening in these years is that an incredibly high number of new hedge funds are being created every day, with the sole purpose of investing in cryptocurrencies. They create different portfolios with cryptocurrencies in there, allowing people all around the world to invest their money in these new products.
Some of these hedge funds invest with the so called "leverage". This means that hedge funds borrow money to buy more cryptocurrencies, to create more products to sell to investors all over the world.
The ratio between the money of the hedge fund and the money they borrow determines the leverage. Let's say that the hedge fund has $1 billion, but with the money that they borrow they have a total of $20 billion, the leverage will be 20:1.
This is risky. This is scary.
If the hedge fund loses 5%, instead of losing $50 million (5% of $1 billion, that represents investors’ money), they lose $1 billion, because they are also investing the borrowed money for a total of $20 billion.
They need to repay the $19 billion that they borrowed, so they face the loss with the $1 billion of investors' money, they repay the debts ($19 billion) and declare bankruptcy.
A tiny 5% decrease in the value of the portfolio would leave the hedge fund insolvent and all the investors lose their money.
今天的比特币
这些年来发生的事情是，每天都有数量惊人的新对冲基金被创建，其唯一目的是投资加密货币。他们用加密货币创建了不同的投资组合，让世界各地的人都能把钱投资到这些新产品上。
其中一些对冲基金使用所谓的“杠杆”进行投资。这意味着对冲基金借钱购买更多的加密货币，创造更多的产品出售给世界各地的投资者。
对冲基金的资金与他们借入的资金之间的比率决定了杠杆率。假设对冲基金有10亿美元，但加上他们借的钱，他们总共有200亿美元，杠杆率将是20:1。
这是有风险的，这太可怕了。
如果对冲基金损失5%，而不是损失5000万美元（10亿美元中的5%，代表投资者的钱），他们将损失10亿美元，因为他们还将借来的钱用于投资，总额为200亿美元。
他们需要偿还190亿美元的借款，因此他们面临着10亿美元投资者资金的损失，他们偿还了债务（190亿美元）并宣布破产。
投资组合价值下降5%，对冲基金就会资不抵债，所有投资者都会血本无归。
What is happening in these years is that an incredibly high number of new hedge funds are being created every day, with the sole purpose of investing in cryptocurrencies. They create different portfolios with cryptocurrencies in there, allowing people all around the world to invest their money in these new products.
Some of these hedge funds invest with the so called "leverage". This means that hedge funds borrow money to buy more cryptocurrencies, to create more products to sell to investors all over the world.
The ratio between the money of the hedge fund and the money they borrow determines the leverage. Let's say that the hedge fund has $1 billion, but with the money that they borrow they have a total of $20 billion, the leverage will be 20:1.
This is risky. This is scary.
If the hedge fund loses 5%, instead of losing $50 million (5% of $1 billion, that represents investors’ money), they lose $1 billion, because they are also investing the borrowed money for a total of $20 billion.
They need to repay the $19 billion that they borrowed, so they face the loss with the $1 billion of investors' money, they repay the debts ($19 billion) and declare bankruptcy.
A tiny 5% decrease in the value of the portfolio would leave the hedge fund insolvent and all the investors lose their money.
今天的比特币
这些年来发生的事情是，每天都有数量惊人的新对冲基金被创建，其唯一目的是投资加密货币。他们用加密货币创建了不同的投资组合，让世界各地的人都能把钱投资到这些新产品上。
其中一些对冲基金使用所谓的“杠杆”进行投资。这意味着对冲基金借钱购买更多的加密货币，创造更多的产品出售给世界各地的投资者。
对冲基金的资金与他们借入的资金之间的比率决定了杠杆率。假设对冲基金有10亿美元，但加上他们借的钱，他们总共有200亿美元，杠杆率将是20:1。
这是有风险的，这太可怕了。
如果对冲基金损失5%，而不是损失5000万美元（10亿美元中的5%，代表投资者的钱），他们将损失10亿美元，因为他们还将借来的钱用于投资，总额为200亿美元。
他们需要偿还190亿美元的借款，因此他们面临着10亿美元投资者资金的损失，他们偿还了债务（190亿美元）并宣布破产。
投资组合价值下降5%，对冲基金就会资不抵债，所有投资者都会血本无归。
Another trait is very similar to the previous financial crisis: the market is not regulated. In this case, I would say that it is even worse. Exchanges are not regulated either.
With all of this and all the other good answers here, you may think that I'm going to write: “yes, Bitcoin could potentially become the cause of next financial crisis”.
But I'm not going to do it. I'm actually going to write: “right now, it is unlikely to see a scenario in which Bitcoin could become the cause of next financial crisis”.
I write this for one reason. CDOs reached a monstrous volume of money because they were sold as products with an extremely low risk and high profits.
Everyone knows that Bitcoin market is risky and is very volatile, it is unlikely that investments in cryptocurrencies will ever reach the same amount of investments in housing market.
"The bigger they are, the harder they fall"
It can be said that there is a bubble, it can be said that this will end sooner or later, but it is hard to imagine that this will ever lead to a financial crisis of the same proportion of the one that we had in 2008.
Also, the CFM (Centre For Macroeconomics) conducted a survey, asking the following question:
“Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?”
I'm reporting the results weighted by experts' self-assessed confidence levels:
The majority of leading European economists do not believe that cryptocurrencies are a threat to the stability of the financial system, either now or in the next couple of years, according to the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey.
In writing this, I was inspired by the film “Inside Job”, Michael Lewis’ book “The Big Short” and by tens of books about Bitcoin and the blockchain technology.
另一个特点与之前的金融危机非常相似：市场没有受到监管。在这种情况下，我想说情况更糟。交易所也不受监管。
有了所有这些和所有其他精彩的答案，你可能会认为我要写:“是的，比特币可能会成为下一次金融危机的原因。”
但我不会这么做。我实际上会写道：“现在，比特币不太可能成为下一次金融危机的原因”。
我写这篇文章有一个原因。CDO达到了惊人的金额，因为它们是作为风险极低、利润极高的产品出售的。
每个人都知道比特币市场是有风险的，而且波动很大，加密货币的投资不太可能达到房地产市场的投资额。
“大到不能倒”
可以说存在泡沫，也可以说泡沫迟早会结束，但很难想象这将导致2008年那样规模的金融危机。
此外，CFM（宏观经济中心）进行了一项调查，提出了以下问题：
“你是否同意加密货币目前对金融系统的稳定构成威胁，或者预计在未来几年内会成为威胁？”
我报告的结果是根据专家们自我评估的信心水平加权的结果：
根据宏观经济中心和美国经济和政策研究中心的最新调查，大多数欧洲顶尖经济学家不认为加密货币对金融体系的稳定构成威胁，无论是现在还是未来几年。
在写这篇文章时，我受到了电影《Inside Job》、迈克尔·刘易斯的《大空头》以及数十本关于比特币和区块链技术的书的启发。
With all of this and all the other good answers here, you may think that I'm going to write: “yes, Bitcoin could potentially become the cause of next financial crisis”.
But I'm not going to do it. I'm actually going to write: “right now, it is unlikely to see a scenario in which Bitcoin could become the cause of next financial crisis”.
I write this for one reason. CDOs reached a monstrous volume of money because they were sold as products with an extremely low risk and high profits.
Everyone knows that Bitcoin market is risky and is very volatile, it is unlikely that investments in cryptocurrencies will ever reach the same amount of investments in housing market.
"The bigger they are, the harder they fall"
It can be said that there is a bubble, it can be said that this will end sooner or later, but it is hard to imagine that this will ever lead to a financial crisis of the same proportion of the one that we had in 2008.
Also, the CFM (Centre For Macroeconomics) conducted a survey, asking the following question:
“Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?”
I'm reporting the results weighted by experts' self-assessed confidence levels:
The majority of leading European economists do not believe that cryptocurrencies are a threat to the stability of the financial system, either now or in the next couple of years, according to the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey.
In writing this, I was inspired by the film “Inside Job”, Michael Lewis’ book “The Big Short” and by tens of books about Bitcoin and the blockchain technology.
另一个特点与之前的金融危机非常相似：市场没有受到监管。在这种情况下，我想说情况更糟。交易所也不受监管。
有了所有这些和所有其他精彩的答案，你可能会认为我要写:“是的，比特币可能会成为下一次金融危机的原因。”
但我不会这么做。我实际上会写道：“现在，比特币不太可能成为下一次金融危机的原因”。
我写这篇文章有一个原因。CDO达到了惊人的金额，因为它们是作为风险极低、利润极高的产品出售的。
每个人都知道比特币市场是有风险的，而且波动很大，加密货币的投资不太可能达到房地产市场的投资额。
“大到不能倒”
可以说存在泡沫，也可以说泡沫迟早会结束，但很难想象这将导致2008年那样规模的金融危机。
此外，CFM（宏观经济中心）进行了一项调查，提出了以下问题：
“你是否同意加密货币目前对金融系统的稳定构成威胁，或者预计在未来几年内会成为威胁？”
我报告的结果是根据专家们自我评估的信心水平加权的结果：
根据宏观经济中心和美国经济和政策研究中心的最新调查，大多数欧洲顶尖经济学家不认为加密货币对金融体系的稳定构成威胁，无论是现在还是未来几年。
在写这篇文章时，我受到了电影《Inside Job》、迈克尔·刘易斯的《大空头》以及数十本关于比特币和区块链技术的书的启发。
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