“世界第一个超国家货币?”地缘政治的演变(下·完·附评论)
2023-07-04 翻译熊 5481
正文翻译

Constructing a trade medium of exchange
We now turn to the mechanics of constructing a new trans-national gold-backed currency. One condition which will need to be in place is for a value for gold measured in goods to back inter-Asian trade. Despite the accumulation of gold by the central banks of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation membership, some of them may not have sufficient official gold reserves to cover their balance of payments deficits except for limited times, requiring a higher gold value in order to do so. And other members, such as Russia, could see continual accumulation of physical gold because of her balance of payments surplus. Ideally therefore, instead of trade settlements being entirely in physical gold, they should be facilitated by a banking system whose credit values are securely based on gold to ensure flexibility.

构建交易媒介
现在我们转向构建一种新的跨国黄金支持货币的机制。一个需要到位的条件是,以货物衡量的黄金价值,以支持亚洲之间的贸易。尽管上海合作组织成员国的央行积累了黄金,但其中一些国家可能没有足够的官方黄金储备来弥补其国际收支赤字,除非是在有限的时间内,这就需要提高黄金价值。
而其他成员国,如俄罗斯,由于其国际收支顺差,可能会看到实物黄金的持续积累。因此,理想情况下,贸易结算不应完全以实物黄金结算,而应由一个信用价值以黄金为基础的银行体系提供便利,以确保灵活性。
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The task therefore is to design an entirely new non-national currency backed by gold, specifically created for cross-border trade and commodity transactions. Presumably, this is what Glazyev is trying to achieve instead of the more cumbersome EAEU project originally announced. It is a relatively simple task and does not require blockchains and the paraphernalia of a CBDC. The mantra should be to keep it simple, and therefore have no mystery.

因此,我们的任务是设计一种全新的、由黄金支撑的非国家货币,专门为跨境贸易和大宗商品交易创造货币。据推测,这就是格拉济耶夫试图实现的目标,而不是最初宣布的更繁琐的欧亚经济联盟项目。这是一项相对简单的任务,不需要区块链和CBDC的相关设备。咒语应该保持简单,这样才没有神秘感。

The bulleted list that follows is a brief outline of how a new trade settlement currency based on gold can be established to replace the fiat dollar in all transactions between SCO/BRICS member nations. By being completely independent of national currencies, it should be politically acceptable to all involved, as well as a long-term practical solution to facilitate the Russian-Chinese axis’s ambitions for an Asian industrial revolution, free from interference by America and her allies.

下面的项目列表简要概述了如何建立一种基于黄金的新贸易结算货币,以取代上海合作组织/金砖国家成员国之间所有交易中的法定美元。通过完全独立于本国货币,它应该在政治上为所有相关方所接受,同时也是一个长期可行的解决方案,可以促进中俄轴心在不受美国及其盟友干涉的情况下实现亚洲工业革命的雄心。

The essential elements are as follows:
The announcement of the creation of a new central bank (NCB) and a new gold-based currency on the lines below will be made in advance of implementation to allow bullion markets to adjust to the new regime before it comes into existence.
A new central bank is then established, whose function is to issue a new book-entry currency backed by physical gold, issued and available only to participating central banks. It will be designed to be a fully trusted gold substitute, independent from fiat currency values.
The new currency will only be redeemable for physical gold by participating central banks. They will also be free to add to their NCB currency reserves by submitting additional gold to the NCB at any time.

基本要素如下:
新的中央银行(NCB,后都用NCB)和新的基于黄金的货币将在实施之前宣布,以允许黄金市场在新制度生效之前进行调整。
然后建立一个新的中央银行,其职能是发行一种新的记账货币,由实物黄金支持,只向参与的中央银行发行和使用。它将被设计成一种完全可信的黄金替代品,独立于法定货币价值。
这种新货币只能由参与其中的央行兑换成实物黄金。他们还可以随时通过向NCB提交额外的黄金来自由地增加他们的新货币储备。

The NCB’s eligible participants will only be the central banks of participating nations, limited to member nations of the SCO, EAEU, and BRICS. The NCB’s currency is issued to the national central banks against their assigning a minimum 40% gold backing for it. For example, currency representing one million gold grammes secures an allocation of 2,500,000 currency units denominated in gold grammes. The gold does not have to be delivered to a central storage point but can be earmarked[iii] from within a participating central bank’s gold reserves, on condition that they are securely stored in vaults on a list approved by the NCB.

NCB的合格参与者仅限于参与国的央行,仅限于上海合作组织、欧亚经济联盟和金砖国家成员国。NCB的货币发行给国家中央银行,而国家中央银行为其指定了至少40%的黄金作为后盾。例如,代表100万克黄金的货币可获得250万以金克计价的货币单位。
黄金不必交付到中央储存点,但可以从参与的中央银行的黄金储备中指定,条件是它们安全地存放在NCB批准的清单上的金库里。

Commercial banks trading in member nations and elsewhere will be free to create and deal in credit denominated in the NCB’s new currency. Issuers and users of this credit are always free to acquire physical gold in the markets, should they wish to back credit created in the new currency with gold itself.
All taxes and restrictions on gold ownership must be fully removed by participating nations. Gold’s legal status as money must be reaffirmed, if necessary.

在成员国间和其他地方进行交易的商业银行将可以自由创建和交易以NCB新货币计价的信贷。这种信贷的发行者和使用者总是可以在市场上自由获取实物黄金,如果他们希望用黄金本身来支持新货币创造的信贷的话。
参与国必须完全取消对黄金所有权的所有税收和限制。如有必要,必须重申黄金作为货币的法律地位。

An efficient central clearing system for commercial banks dealing in credit based on the new currency will need to be established.
Accompanied by the major energy producers setting price benchmarks, commodity exchanges in member nations will be required to price all products in the new NCB currency, replacing pricing in US dollars completely for trade between participating member nations. They can still quote prices in dollars for others should they so wish.

需要建立一个有效的中央清算系统,供商业银行以新货币进行信贷交易。
在主要能源生产商设定价格基准的同时,成员国的商品交易所将被要求以新的NCB货币为所有产品定价,在参与成员国之间的贸易中完全取代美元定价。如果他们愿意,他们仍然可以用美元报价给其他人。

The purpose of the new currency is to provide the basis for trade finance and other cross border financial settlements on a sound money basis. It is also likely to lead to participating nations placing a greater emphasis on their own currencies’ stability while providing a safe haven from a fiat currency systemic collapse.
All empirical evidence informs us that when gold becomes the means by which credit is valued, credit’s own value is not dependent on stability in the quantity of credit, taking its value from gold. This stability imparts pricing certainty to trade and investment, necessary conditions for maximising economic progress particularly in the context of wider industrial development throughout Asia.

新货币的目的是在稳健的货币基础上为贸易融资和其他跨境金融结算提供基础。它还可能导致参与国更加重视本国货币的稳定性,同时为法定货币的系统性崩溃提供一个避风港。
所有的经验证据都告诉我们,当黄金成为衡量信贷价值的手段时,信贷本身的价值就不再依赖于信贷数量的稳定,而是从黄金中获取价值。这种稳定性为贸易和投资带来了价格的确定性,这是实现经济进步最大化的必要条件,尤其是在整个亚洲工业发展的大背景下。

Constructed on the lines above, remarkably little physical gold would be required to underwrite cross-border payment values for trade in Asia and beyond. This trade settlement currency should be simple and quick to establish. It must be free from interference from members of the western alliance trying to preserve their own fiat currency systems. And the 40% gold backing rhymes with the basic requirement for a metallic monetary standard set by Sir Isaac Newton, when he was Master of the Royal Mint.
For participating central banks, the replacement of gold in their reserves for allocations of the new currency would represent a significant increase in their reserves. As confidence in the scheme builds, it could be argued that only minimal gold reserves need to be retained by participating central banks, with the balance swapped for the new currency. For example, the Reserve Bank of India officially possesses 795 tonnes of gold. Converted into the new gold currency, its value in reserves is uplifted to 1,988 tonnes equivalent.

基于上述思路,在亚洲及其他地区的贸易中,几乎不需要实物黄金来担保跨境支付价值。这种贸易结算货币应该简单快捷。它必须不受试图保留本国法定货币体系的西方联盟成员国的干预。40%的黄金支持与艾萨克·牛顿爵士设定的金属货币标准的基本要求一致,当时他是皇家造币厂的负责人。
对于参与其中的中央银行来说,用储备中的黄金来代替新货币的分配,将意味着其储备的显著增加。随着人们对该计划的信心逐渐增强,人们可能会辩称,参与该计划的央行只需要保留最低限度的黄金储备,其余部分就可以换成新货币。例如,印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)官方持有795吨黄金。如果换算成新的黄金货币,其在储备中的价值将上升至1988吨。

评论翻译
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A return to sound money. Seem like a lotta countries find this appealing. good bye dollar.

稳健货币的回归。似乎很多国家都觉得这很有吸引力。再见了,美元。

Dollars are stiil in circulation.... they would be hot potatos. How will usa finance budget deficits.... there would be no more trade deficits?

美元仍在流通……它们会成为烫手山芋。
美国如何为预算赤字融资....才可以避免再有贸易赤字?
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Idk. These countries do no trade with each other all that much. If you pull the US out of their trade flows, the numbers are terrible.
Plus, more countries are Dollarizing. Lebanon is almost 100% Dollarized, now. So is Venezuela. It wouldn't surprise me to see Argentina and Ukraine Dollarize soon as well.
I think we will wind up with official USD trade and capital flows. And, un-official non-sanctionable USD trade flows. I don't really see a role for Gold. King Dollar likes to spend his money on hookers and blow, not shiny rocks.

我不知道。这些国家之间的贸易并没有那么多。如果你把美国从他们的贸易流中剔除,这些数字是很糟糕的。
此外,越来越多的国家正在美元化。黎巴嫩现在几乎是100%美元化了。委内瑞拉也是如此。如果阿根廷和乌克兰很快也被美元化,我不会感到惊讶。
我认为我们将以官方美元贸易和资本流动结束。以及非官方的、不受制裁的美元贸易流量。我不觉得黄金有什么角色。人们喜欢把钱花在妓女和毒品上,而不是闪亮的石头上。

Which will bankrupt the US if we don't move quickly to tangible real backing for at least a sizable portion of our currency.

如果我们不迅速采取行动,至少在我们的货币中至少有相当一部分的支持,那将使美国破产。

Argentina apparently just paid some IMF/World Bank debts in yuan so... Probably not going to be taking out more dollar-denominated debts any time soon!

阿根廷显然刚刚用人民币支付了一些国际货币基金组织/世界银行的债务,所以…短期内可能不会有更多以美元计价的债务了!

Hmmm. BRICS will account for ~80% of all world iron ore, copper, zinc, aluminum, diamonds, palladium, platinum, rare earths, gold, tin, natural gas, and many other materials. some of these items would be 100% market share. they could easily raise prices once organized.

金砖国家将占世界铁矿石、铜、锌、铝、钻石、钯、铂、稀土、黄金、锡、天然气和许多其他材料的80%左右。其中一些产品将获得100%的市场份额。一旦组织起来,他们可以很容易地提高价格。

Those numbers aren't correct. America produces around 300 billion cubic meters of gas more annually than Russia. While BRICS largely do have a bit of a lock on palladium and platinum, Australia is a massive player in the mining of other materials. Diamonds are irrelevant. Most modern diamonds come from ovens.

这些数字不正确。美国每年比俄罗斯多生产大约3000亿立方米的天然气。虽然金砖国家在钯金和铂金上基本上有一定的优势,但澳大利亚在其他材料的开采方面也是一个重要的参与者。钻石无关紧要。而大多数现代钻石来自烤箱。

The number of dollar debt and dollar reserves held outside the U.S. has been in decline since 2000! Most nations are now realizing that it's only a matter of time before fiat backed by IOU's from government and banks, who are all themselves in deep financial trouble is worthless! The U.S.'s entire power over the world has come from the dollar, which didn't just start loosing popularity, but has been doing so for 23 years while you were asleep!

自2000年以来,美国境外持有的美元债务和美元储备数量一直在下降!大多数国家现在都意识到,由政府和银行的借据支持的法币只是时间问题,而政府和银行本身也陷入了严重的金融困境!美国在世界上的全部权力都来自美元,它不是刚刚开始失去人气,而是在你睡着的时候已经失去人气23年了!

The dollar isn't going anytime soon. But alternatives are taking shape, currently with limited effect on USD.
May be in the long run it could falter if the Beltway clowns recklessly continue to weaponize it. And if they still go through it, then it would be controlled demolition of USD from the inside.

美元短期内不会升值。但替代方案正在形成,目前对美元的影响有限。
也许从长远来看,如果华盛顿的小丑们不顾一切地继续把它武器化,它可能会动摇。如果他们仍然经历这一过程,那么这将是从内部对美元进行有控制的破坏。

There is evidence that plans for a new trade settlement currency will be announced at the upcoming BRICS meeting in Johannesburg on 22—24 August.
No, there isn’t. In fact, there is zero evidence of this. The entire article is based on the author’s predictions and speculations, nothing more.
This is just as bad as a previous Jim Rickards article on the same topic that tried to pass off his speculations as an “announcement”.
I wish authors would stop doing this. It’s perfectly fine to speculate what you think might be announced in the future, but don’t claim your predictions are “evidence” or an “announcement”.

“有迹象表明,即将于8月22日至24日在约翰内斯堡举行的金砖国家会议将宣布新的贸易结算货币计划。”
不,没有。事实上,没有证据证明这一点。整篇文章都是基于作者的预测和推测,仅此而已。这和吉姆·里卡兹之前在同一主题上的一篇文章一样糟糕,那篇文章试图把他的猜测伪装成“公告”。
我希望作者们不要再这样做了。推测你认为未来可能会宣布的事情是完全可以的,但不要声称你的预测是“证据”或“公告”。
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Nailed it. Zero evidence for ANYTHING this author claims. And notice that he writes a loooooooong, winding piece with ZERO conclusion at the end! Guy can't even net it out in 30 words or less.
Worthless filler type of article. Just, stupid.

没错。这个作者声称的任何事情都没有证据。只注意到他写了一篇很长很绕的文章,结尾没有结论!这家伙连30个字都写不出来。
一文不值的流水账。太愚蠢了。

It is all speculation and proposal of ideas for gold. Over and over in these articles.
A new BRICS basket of currencies has more evidence and is still a threat to US Dollar hegemony. Author suspects some sort of accounting for having a limit of gold in the centrals banks to back the currency.
So CBDCs are still ahead of most in many BRICS nations and the outcome still looks like another form of fiat, competitve to a weaponized US Dollar.

这些都是关于黄金的猜测和建议。在这些文章中一遍又一遍重复。
新的金砖国家货币篮子有更多的证据,仍然是对美元霸权的威胁。作者怀疑中央银行有一定的黄金储备来支持货币。
因此,在许多金砖国家,CBDC仍然领先于大多数国家,其结果看起来仍然是另一种形式的、与武器化的美元竞争的法币。

The west hasn't produced enough wealth creation in the last 50 years to meet the demands of its spoiled populations, so naturally the answer is to borrow and print. Eventually it all implodes. The western world is facing a bleak future no matter how 'productive' they think they are and how high a quality of life they 'think' they deserve to live. And importing the world filth does nothing other than accelerate the dystopian end.

在过去的50年里,西方没有创造足够的财富来满足其被宠坏的人口的需求,所以答案自然是借和印。最终,一切都会崩溃。
无论他们认为自己多么“富有成效”,无论他们认为自己应该过上多么高质量的生活,西方世界都面临着一个黯淡的未来。向世界进口垃圾除了加速反乌托邦的结局之外,什么都没有。

So, you're either not a Westerner, and are jealous of our lifestyle... OR... you're a Westerner who is not able to fully enjoy said lifestyle, because you're an underachiever. Which is it?

所以,你要么不是西方人,嫉妒我们的生活方式。
或者……你是一个西方人,你无法完全享受这种生活方式,因为你是一个后进生。是哪一个?

Westerner who's been very successful but who's smart enough to be real about the finances of ALL western nations. I can assume that you're more into fantasy. Look to France RIGHT NOW to see what your progressive bullshit has created and is simmering waiting to explode. Its going to be funny to watch society fall apart and all the progressive filth run away from what they created just like the ayssholes are doing who are running from NYC, California, Illinios, etc.

一个非常成功的西方人,但他足够聪明,对所有西方国家的财政状况都很真了解。
我猜你更喜欢幻想。现在看看法国,看看你们的进步主义狗屁创造了什么,正在酝酿着等待爆炸。
看着社会分崩离析,所有进步主义渣滓从他们创造的混乱中逃离,就像那些从纽约、加利福尼亚、伊利诺斯等地逃跑的混蛋一样,这将是很有意思的。
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Achievement -- for a lifestyle in a West that must print to pay for police, because government revenue streams are so corrupted by political profligacy? Even the West's overachievers are being victimized by such profligacy; for their achievements are diluted -- even raped by inept governments. What if the info revolution of the 80's - 90's never happened? Where would the $ be now?

成就——为了一种西方的生活方式,因为政府的收入来源被政治上的挥霍所腐化,所以必须靠印钱来支付警察的费用?即使是西方的优等生也成为了这种挥霍的牺牲品。因为他们的成就被无能的政府稀释——甚至强奸。如果80 - 90年代的信息革命从未发生过呢?美元现在在哪里?
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The article explains a Gold Standard Lite. Which is a step in the direction of a financial integrity that 21st century fiats and their CB's can no longer afford.

这篇文章解释了对黄金标准的劣质模仿。这是朝着金融诚信的方向迈出的一步,但21世纪的法定货币和它们的商业银行再也负担不起了。

Yanks piss and moan about the Russian proxy war, asking what's in it for us?
The continuation of US dollar Reserve currency Hedgonomy is what is in it for the USA.
3 generations of privelage was theirs so most Americans know nothing else and so the Yanks do not properly appreciate it, but they will sure as hell notice when it is gone.

美国佬抱怨俄国的代理人战争,问对我们美国有什么好处?
美元储备货币对冲经济的延续是对美国有利的。
3代人享受了特权,所以大多数美国人什么都不知道,美国佬不会好好珍惜它,但当它消失的时候,他们肯定会注意到的。

The Ukraine conflict is only accelerating the loss of reserve status. The accumulated US debt and foreign policy misadventures are causing the ROW to seek other sources of stability.
It is clear from the student debt debate that NOBODY in the USA actually wants to pay their debts. EVERYBODY expects someone else will be responsible for the debt. The ROW must be looking at the USA as a borrower whose credit score is rapidly deteriorating. The rational thing to do is to stop lending to a borrower whose ability to repay is deteriorating and who simply rolls debt principle over and has no plan to ever pay down their debt.
That’s the current view of the USA from rational people.

乌克兰冲突只是加速了储备货币地位的丧失。美国累积的债务和外交政策上的不幸,正促使欧元区寻求其他稳定来源。
从学生债务辩论中可以清楚地看出,在美国,没有人真正想要偿还债务。每个人都希望别人对债务负责。
ROW一定是把美国视为一个信用评分正在迅速恶化的借款人。理性的做法是,停止向偿债能力正在恶化、只是将债务原则滚动,而且根本没有偿还债务的计划的借款人放贷。
这是理性人士目前对美国的看法。
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Very good article. All of this discussion about the changing landscape of the world financial systems, and they are changing, yet now ONE mention of Bitcon. Hmmmm. I thought that stuff was going to save the world? At least that is what the proponents of it were telling us all. With other fantasies of rainbows and unicorns farting pixie dust.

非常好的文章。所有这些关于世界金融体系不断变化的讨论,它们正在发生变化,但现在却提到了比特币。嗯。我以为那东西能拯救世界?至少这是它的支持者告诉我们所有人的。幻想着彩虹和独角兽放屁的仙尘。

A currency is only "gold-backed" if any Joe on the street can go and redeem his cash for gold. If he can't, then there's no way of knowing the banksters aren't just pretending it's gold-backed.

一种货币只有在大街上任何一个人都可以用现金兑换黄金的情况下才会被“黄金支持”。如果它不能,那就没办法知道银行家们不是在假装它是由黄金支撑的。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Like it or not, for good or bad, the world IS going back on a gold standard! They will try to push their CBDC's for a while but they will fail. It may take years but it IS coming.
Prepare accordingly!

不管你喜不喜欢,不管是好是坏,世界正在回到金本位制!他们会尝试在一段时间内推出CBDC,但他们会失败。这可能需要几年的时间,但它正在到来。
做好相应的准备!

Pretty good article overall but needs 2 revisions:
1) SCO is different from BRICS or EAEU because it is also a military alliance (a bit like NATO). You can't just merge BRICS (which is just trade) with SCO.
2) The reason other commodities will not be in the new BRICS currency is that, earlier this year, the Moscow Exchange adopted new contracts for commodities to be valued in silver. Commodities can be exchanged for silver and the silver can be exchanged for gold.

总的来说,这篇文章很好,但需要两处修改:
1)上海合作组织不同于金砖国家或欧亚经济联盟,因为它也是一个军事联盟(有点像北约)。你不能把金砖国家(只是贸易)和上合组织合并。
2)其他大宗商品不会以新的金砖国家货币计价的原因是,今年早些时候,莫斯科交易所(Moscow Exchange)采用了以白银计价的大宗商品新合约。商品可以兑换白银,白银可以兑换黄金。

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