网帖翻译

The Chips Act cannot subsidize the American semiconductor industry indefinitely, and there is no other global demand base to replace China. Other chip producing nations will inevitably break ranks and sell to China (as they have historically) and the American actions will be for naught. And, in banning the export of chips and other core inputs to China, America handed China its war plan years ahead of the battle. China is being goaded into building self-sufficiency far earlier than they would have otherwise. Prior to the ZTE and Huawei components bans, China was content to continue purchasing American chips and focusing on the front-end hardware. Peter Wennink, the CEO of ASML, stated that China is already leading in key applications and demand for semiconductors. Wennink wrote, “The roll-out of the telecommunication infrastructure, battery technology, that’s the sweet spot of mid-critical and mature semiconductors, and that’s where China without any exception is leading.”

芯片法案不可能无限期地补贴美国半导体产业，而且全球也没有其他需求基础可以取代中国。其他芯片生产国将不可避免地打破规则，向中国出售芯片（就像历史上一样），美国的行动将付诸东流。此外，美国禁止向中国出口芯片和其他核心产品，相当于提前数年向中国提交了作战计划。中国正被激励着比其他国家更早地实现自给自足。在中兴和华为零部件禁令之前，中国满足于继续购买美国芯片，专注于前端硬件。ASML 首席执行官皮特·温尼克表示，中国在半导体的关键应用和需求方面已经处于领先地位。温尼克写道："电信基础设施和电池技术的推出，是中等关键和成熟半导体的最佳时机，而这正是中国毫无例外地领先的地方。”

A sleeping giant was awoken by short-sighted American protectionist policies. America now faces the short-term threat of loss of critical revenue that fueled the R&D that made it an innovation leader and the long-term inevitability that China will build its own full scale semiconductor ecosystem. The ability of Huawei to launch the Mate 60 Pro, a new smartphone powered by a domestically produced 5G chip and operating system, despite severe American sanctions on the firm illustrates how unwise American policies have been in trying to stop China’s technological growth and development.

美国短视的保护主义政策唤醒了一个沉睡的巨人。美国现在面临着失去关键收入的短期威胁，而这些收入正是美国成为创新领导者的研发动力；从长远来看，中国将不可避免地建立起自己的全面半导体生态系统。尽管美国对华为实施了严厉制裁，但华为仍能推出搭载国产 5G 芯片和操作系统的新款智能手机 Mate 60 Pro，这说明美国试图阻止中国技术增长和发展的政策有多么不明智。

Since America is unlikely to stop China’s technological growth and development (and, indeed, is unlikely to stop China’s emergence as a peer global power), there is a more enlightened approach to engagement. It is best illustrated by Aesop’s fable, “The North Wind and the Sun.” In the story, the North Wind blows hard and fails to remove the traveler’s cloak. It is, rather, the warm rays of the sun persuade the traveler to remove his cloak.

既然美国不可能阻止中国的技术增长和发展（事实上，也不可能阻止中国崛起为世界级强国），那么就有一种更加开明的接触方式。伊索寓言的《北风和太阳》最能说明这一点。在这个故事中，北风猛烈地吹着，却无法吹走旅行者的斗篷。反而是温暖的阳光说服旅行者脱下斗篷。

It’s now widely held among American policymakers that America’s five-decade-long policy of engagement with China has failed. As Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner candidly state in their recent Foreign Affairs article, “Nearly half a century since Nixon’s first steps toward rapprochement, the record is increasingly clear that Washington once again put too much faith in its power to shape China’s trajectory. . .China has instead pursued its own course, belying a range of American expectations in the process.”

现在，美国决策者普遍认为，美国长达五十年的对华接触政策已经失败。库尔特-坎贝尔和伊利-拉特纳在最近的《外交事务》一文中坦率地指出："自尼克松迈出和解的第一步以来，将近半个世纪的记录越来越清楚地表明，华盛顿又一次过分相信它有能力塑造中国的轨迹... 相反，中国走上了自己的道路，在此过程中违背了美国的一系列期望。”

Certainly, if the policy of engagement was intended to transform China’s internal system of governance, it has failed. Yet, if this was the goal, it was an act of remarkable hubris for a 250-year-old Republic (with one-quarter of China’s population) to believe that it could transform a 5,000-year-old civilization to its liking. However, if the goal of American policy was to encourage the emergence of China as a “responsible stakeholder” (to use the words of Robert Zoellick), the policy may well have succeeded. A comprehensive study done by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP), the American Friends Service Committee, and four independent researchers has documented that China’s behavior was altered by various policies of engagement, particularly as it pertains to reducing climate change, improving public health, and global financial stability. Former State Department official Susan Thornton, who oversaw the study as director of the Forum on Asia-Pacific Security at NCAFP, said: “This audit of U.S.-China diplomacy shows that we can make progress through negotiations and that China follows through on its commitments. The notion that engagement with China did not benefit the U.S. is just not accurate.” Indeed, the record shows that there is wisdom contained in the moral of Aesop’s “The North Wind and the Sun”: “Gentleness and kind persuasion win where force and bluster fail.”

当然，如果接触政策的目的是改造中国的内部治理体系，那么它已经失败了。然而，如果这是目标的话，一个拥有 250 年历史的共和国（人口仅为中国的四分之一）竟然认为自己可以按照自己的意愿改造一个拥有 5000 年历史的文明，这无疑是一种非常狂妄的行为。然而，如果美国政策的目标是鼓励中国成为 "负责任的利益攸关方"（用罗伯特-佐利克的话说），那么这项政策很可能已经成功了。美国外交政策全国委员会、美国公谊会服务委员会和四位独立研究人员所做的一项综合研究表明，中国的行为受到了各种接触政策的影响，尤其是在减少气候变化、改善公共卫生和全球金融稳定方面。美国国务院前官员苏珊-桑顿在担任 NCAFP 亚太安全论坛主任期间负责监督这项研究，她说： "对美中外交的审计表明，我们可以通过谈判取得进展，而中国也会履行其承诺。认为与中国接触对美国没有好处的说法是不准确的。”事实上，记录表明，伊索的《北风和太阳》寓意中蕴含着智慧： "在武力和虚张声势无法奏效的地方，温柔和善意的劝说会取得胜利"。

One fundamental problem is that domestic politics in America are forcing American policymakers to take strident stands against China instead of pragmatic positions. For instance, sanctions preventing the Chinese Defense Minister, Li Shangfu, from traveling to the United States are standing in the way of U.S.-China defense dialogues to prevent military accidents. Yet, the hands of the U.S. government are tied. It cannot lift sanctions, even if they have proved to be ineffective at securing American policy goals.

一个根本问题是，美国国内政治迫使美国决策者采取强硬的反华立场，而不是务实的立场。例如，阻止中国国防部长李尚福访问美国的制裁阻碍了美中为防止军事意外而进行的防务对话。然而，美国政府却束手无策。美国政府无法取消制裁，即使制裁已被证明无法有效实现美国的政策目标。

This is why the time has come for America to do a major reuation of the methods it uses to secure foreign policy goals. Its go-to tactic of imposing sanctions has failed to either halt China’s technological development or influence China’s behavior in any significant way, and most countries do not find that it is in their interests to go along with them. Are there more effective alternatives to sanctions?

这就是为什么美国现在应该对其用来实现外交政策目标的方法进行重大的重新评估。美国惯用的制裁手段既未能阻止中国的技术发展，也未能对中国的行为产生任何重大影响，而且大多数国家也不认为配合制裁符合它们的利益。除了制裁，还有其他更有效的办法吗？

In a statement explaining the Biden administration’s approach to China, Anthony blxen said in May 2022: “we’ll compete with confidence; we’ll cooperate wherever we can; we’ll contest where we must.” We agree with this approach. Rather than undermining its own interests and fortifying a geopolitical and economic competitor, America should practice a more enlightened technology policy. The focus must be placed on initiatives that sustainably support and extend America’s innovation leadership, while surgically removing specific national security threats.

2022 年 5 月，安东尼-布林肯在一份解释拜登政府对华态度的声明中说："我们将满怀信心地竞争；我们将尽可能地合作；我们将在必要的地方较量。”我们同意这种做法。美国不应损害自身利益，强化地缘政治和经济竞争对手，而应奉行更加开明的技术政策。重点必须放在可持续地支持和扩大美国创新领导力的举措上，同时通过外科手术消除具体的国家安全威胁。

In lieu of a zero-sum framing of the U.S.-China technology competition, a sustainable structure for collaboration is beneficial to both countries and humanity. Most Western emissions reductions targets cannot be met without participation from China, who hold many of the patents and core inputs for solar, wind, and electric battery power. Joint research programs, clinical trials and data sets are critical for solving chronic global health issues like cancer. Decoupled technology ecosystems not only impede advancement, but also create other endemic risks resulting from parallel development and unilateral regulation. Unchecked growth in potential doomsday technologies like artificial intelligence or nuclear immediately comes to mind. Continuing to welcome scientific talent from China to study, work and settle down in the United States is beneficial for the scientific progress of both countries as well. These scientists can act as a bridge towards scientific collaboration between the United States and China.

中美技术竞争不应以零和为框架，可持续的合作结构对两国和人类都有利。如果没有中国的参与，大多数西方国家的减排目标都无法实现，因为中国拥有太阳能、风能和蓄电池发电的许多专利和核心投入。联合研究计划、临床试验和数据集对于解决癌症等全球慢性健康问题至关重要。脱钩的技术生态系统不仅会阻碍技术进步，还会因平行发展和单边监管而产生其他地方性风险。人工智能或核技术等潜在末日技术的无节制增长，立即浮现在我们的脑海中。继续欢迎来自中国的科学人才到美国学习、工作和定居，也有利于两国的科学进步。这些科学家可以成为中美两国科学合作的桥梁。

The American government should also consider rebooting in full all the high-level dialogues that had been initiated by the Bush administration, continued by the Obama administration, and ended by the Trump administration. A resumption of high-level dialogues, together with the establishment of a high-level science and technology dialogue bringing together the top scientists from both countries, could well result in more positive outcomes for American long-term national interests.

美国政府还应考虑全面重启由布什政府发起、奥巴马政府继续、特朗普政府结束的所有高级别对话。重启高级别对话，同时建立汇集两国顶尖科学家的高级别科技对话，很可能会为美国的长期国家利益带来更积极的成果。

Initially, this great power collaboration could be focused on areas where both sides have common long-term interests (like climate change, pandemic preparedness, global economic stability, education). When basic levels of trust are established, dialogue and cooperation can be expanded step by step. None of these moves will result in a diminution of American power and standing in the world. Indeed, America’s prestige and standing could well rise as the rest of the world sees America pursuing reasonable policies that are serving both American and global interests. America will remain the most admired country in the world, if it pursues a wiser course with China.

最初，这种大国合作可以集中在双方有共同长期利益的领域（如气候变化、大流行病防备、全球经济稳定、教育）。当双方建立了基本的信任后，对话与合作就可以逐步扩大。这些举措都不会削弱美国在世界上的实力和地位。事实上，当世界其他国家看到美国奉行合理的政策，为美国和全球利益服务时，美国的威望和地位很可能会上升。如果美国对中国采取更明智的做法，它仍将是世界上最受钦佩的国家。

This essay is published in cooperation with the Asian Peace Programme at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute.

本文是与新加坡国立大学亚洲研究院的亚洲和平项目合作发表。

无