中国游戏类股票反弹 - 龙腾网移动版

【中国游戏类股票反弹】

Chinese gaming stocks regained some ground on Wednesday after Beijing appeared to soften its rhetoric on the sector in the wake of new regulations for the world’s biggest gaming market that triggered a record sell-off last week.

在中国政府似乎软化了关于游戏监管政策的口风之后，中国游戏类股票周三收复部分失地。上周，全球最大游戏市场中国发布的网络游戏管理办法草案（征求意见稿）引发了创纪录的抛售。

Shares in Tencent had tumbled more than 12 per cent on Friday after regulators rocked markets with a plan to curb how much money and time adults spend while playing online games — a reminder to investors of the risks from unpredictable policies in the world’s second-biggest economy.

上周五，腾讯股价暴跌逾12%，此前监管机构公布了一项拟限制成年人在网络游戏上花多少钱和时间的管理办法草案，震动了市场——这提醒了投资者全球第二大经济体不可预测的政策对他们构成的风险。

But they clawed back some of those losses, rising more than 5 per cent in Hong Kong on Wednesday, in their first trading session after official rhetoric appeared to soften Beijing’s stance. Rival NetEase rose about 10 per cent after closing the previous session down almost a quarter.

但是在周三，也就是官方发表的声明似乎缓和了口风之后的第一个交易日，在香港上市的腾讯股票上涨了5%以上，收复了部分失地。其竞争对手网易上涨约10%，此前一个交易日收盘时该股下跌近四分之一。

After Friday’s rout, the National Press and Publication Administration, China’s gaming regulator, sought to assuage concerns, approving the release of a batch of new games and stating on Saturday that it would study responses to its plans to curb how gaming is monetised, and support “healthy development” of the industry.

在上周五的暴跌之后，中国负责游戏监管的国家新闻出版署试图缓解外界担忧，为一批新游戏发放了版号，并在上周六表示，将研究外界对其遏制游戏盈利方式计划的反应，并表示支持该行业“健康发展”。

Zhang Xueqing, an analyst from China International Capital Corporation, a leading Chinese brokerage, said the regulator’s statement should “soothe the concerns of capital markets” and showed a more “gentle” attitude on the part of Beijing.

中国主要券商中金公司的分析师张雪晴表示，监管机构的声明应能“缓解资本市场的担忧”，该声明也显示出中国政府更为“温和”的态度。

However, analysts and fund managers said the weak recovery highlighted concerns about policy uncertainty in China.

然而分析师和基金经理表示，复苏乏力突显出人们对中国政策不确定性的担忧。

Liqian Ren, who manages China investments at WisdomTree Asset Management, a US-based fund, said that many China-focused investors had concentrated on macro trends in housing and consumption, and had taken “on this narrative” that regulatory risk for tech platforms had subsided. In this context, Friday’s announcement had been a big shock.

总部位于美国的智慧树资产管理公司负责中国投资的Liqian Ren表示，许多关注中国的投资者原本关注的是住房和消费领域的宏观趋势，并且原本已“接受了这一说法”，即科技平台面临的监管风险已经消退。在这种背景下，上周五的声明带来了极大的冲击。

“People are definitely reassessing how much discount should be given for these sudden regulations . . . the sell-off is part of this broader reassessment,” she said. “Capital markets just do not like surprises.”

她说：“人们肯定在重新评估应该为这些突如其来的监管规定计入多少（风险）折扣……抛售是这场整体重新评估的一部分。资本市场就是不喜欢惊吓。”

Robin Zhu, a gaming sector analyst with Bernstein in Hong Kong, described Friday’s sell-off in a note as “The Nightmare Before Christmas”, and warned that the impact on smaller game developers could be worse than bigger groups such as Tencent and NetEase.

伯恩斯坦驻香港游戏行业分析师朱镔在一份报告中将上周五的抛售称为“圣诞节前的噩梦”，并警告称小型游戏开发商受到的影响可能比腾讯和网易等大公司更严重。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Many smaller groups ceased operations when Beijing stopped approving new gaming licences for almost a year in 2021. “It wouldn’t surprise us if a strict implementation of [Friday’s] consultation draft has a similar impact (perhaps it’s a good thing youth unemployment numbers are no longer published),” he wrote.

北京方面自2021年中起暂停新游戏版号审批近一年，在此期间许多规模较小的公司停止了运营。他写道：“（上周五发布的）对外征求意见的草案如果严格执行，产生类似的影响不会令人意外（也许不再公布青年失业数据是件好事）。”

Zhu added that while markets had probably overreacted to Friday’s proposals, “almost any reaction feels justifiable in the present moment, given the vagueness of the consultation draft, and Chinese policymakers’ track record in the last few years”.

朱镔补充称，虽然市场可能对上周五的征求意见稿反应过度，但“考虑到该草案的模糊性，以及中国政策制定者过去几年的记录，几乎所有反应在当下感觉都是合理的”。

China’s online gaming industry is the biggest in the world with annual revenues of about $45bn from 650mn users.

中国网络游戏行业的规模居世界之首，拥有约6.5亿用户，年收入达到450亿美元。

Morgan Stanley analysts were less concerned about the hit to the sector. They said in a note that over the past five years, regulators have slowed the pace of new game releases, restricted content and curbed use by minors. However, the wave of regulations has ultimately had “minimal impact on the industry”, which has seen revenues surge almost 50 per cent since 2017, from Rmb204bn ($28.5bn) to Rmb305bn this year.

摩根士丹利分析师则不太担心该行业受到冲击。他们在一份报告中表示，过去5年，监管机构放缓了新游戏版号的审批，限制了游戏内容并控制未成年人玩游戏。然而，这波监管浪潮最终“对该行业的影响微乎其微”，该行业收入自2017年以来增长近50%，从2040亿元人民币（合285亿美元）增至今年的3050亿元人民币。

The bank’s analysts added that big companies, through “innovation” or “workarounds”, could mitigate the risk from the latest regulatory proposals.

该行分析师补充称，大公司可以通过“创新”或者“变通”来减轻最新监管草案的风险。

Still, China’s stock market has sharply underperformed global peers this year on the back of a disappointing economic recovery from years of harsh zero-Covid restrictions and a rolling liquidity crisis among systemically important property developers. The MSCI China index is set to finish the year down more than 17 per cent, compared to a rise of more than 24 per cent for the S&P 500 in the US.

尽管如此，中国股市今年的表现远远落后于全球其他股市，原因是中国经济在结束几年的严格“清零”措施后复苏情况令人失望，而且具有系统重要性的房地产开发商的流动性危机不断蔓延。到今年结束时，MSCI中国指数将下跌逾17%，而美国标普500指数将上涨逾24%。

Gary Ng, a senior economist at investment bank Natixis, said the latest gaming regulations have “sparked fear” among investors that the period of regulatory crackdowns is not over, denting China’s efforts to bring in more foreign investment.

法国外贸银行高级经济学家吴卓殷表示，游戏行业的最新监管计划在投资者中“引发了（对监管整顿期尚未结束的）担忧”，这削弱了中国吸引更多外国投资的努力。

“It may be boring to talk about policy risk again and again, but this is really the core factor behind the weak sentiment in Hong Kong and China-related assets, especially equities,” he said, adding: “Why would investors return from Asian markets, like Japan and India, if they all have a better story to tell?”

“反复谈论政策风险可能很无聊，但这确实是围绕香港和中国（内地）相关资产（尤其是股票）的市场情绪低迷背后的核心因素。”他说，“如果日本和印度等亚洲市场都能讲出更精彩的故事，投资者为什么要从这些市场回来呢？”
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The operator of the world’s second-largest container ship fleet will resume sending tankers through the Red Sea after a US-led coalition began providing naval security against attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

世界第二大集装箱船队的运营商将恢复通过红海的航行，此前针对伊朗支持的胡塞叛军发起的袭击，以美国为首的一个联盟开始提供海军护航。

Denmark’s AP Møller-Maersk said on Sunday that it would stop rerouting vessels around southern Africa, a long and costly route, and would proceed through the Suez Canal after the coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, was launched.

丹麦航运公司马士基周日表示，在“繁荣卫士行动”联盟启动后，该公司将恢复通过苏伊士运河的航运业务，而不再指示其船舶绕道非洲好望角（一条漫长而昂贵的航线）。

The multinational operation, unveiled by the US last week, will strengthen a naval task force in the Red Sea to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through one of the most important global trade arteries, where they have come under drone and missile attacks from the Houthis, a Yemen-based militia group.

美国上周宣布的这项多国行动将加强红海的一支海军特遣部队，以确保商船安全通过全球最重要的贸易动脉之一。近期商船在红海遭到也门民兵组织胡塞武装的无人机和导弹袭击。

The Houthis have launched a string of attacks on ships in recent weeks, which the rebels have said were a response to Israel’s war against Hamas, the Palestinian group that is also backed by Iran, resulting in the biggest reshaping of global trade since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year

最近几周，胡塞武装对船舶发动了一系列袭击，这些袭击已导致全球贸易格局出现自俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来的最大变化。胡塞叛军称，袭击商船是对以色列对同样得到伊朗支持的巴勒斯坦组织哈马斯开战的回应。
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“With the Operation Prosperity Guardian initiative in operation, we are preparing to allow for vessels to resume transit through the Red Sea both eastbound and westbound,” Maersk said in a statement on Sunday.

“随着‘繁荣卫士行动’倡议得到落实，我们正准备允许船舶恢复通过红海的东向和西向航行，”马士基周日在一份声明中表示。

The company added that it was working on plans for the first transits to resume “as soon as operationally possible”, but warned that it could reverse the decision, depending on the risks.

该公司补充说，它正在制定“尽快”恢复第一批航行的计划，但警告可能会根据风险逆转这一决定。

On Saturday, a tanker operating about 200 nautical miles from the coast of India was attacked by a drone, the first incident targeting a vessel far beyond the Red Sea. According to the Pentagon, the drone originated from Iran, also a first since the start of the spate of Houthi attacks.

上周六，在距印度海岸约200海里处航行的一艘化学品液货船遭到无人机袭击，这是第一起针对红海以外船舶的袭击事件。五角大楼称，这架无人机直接来自伊朗，这也是自胡塞武装开始发动袭击以来的头一回。
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In Gaza, Palestinian officials tallied at least 78 people killed by Israeli shelling on Sunday night, making Christmas Eve one of the deadliest nights since the start of Israel’s land and air offensive against Hamas.

在加沙，据巴勒斯坦官员统计，周日晚至少有78人在以色列炮击中丧生，使得平安夜成为自以色列对哈马斯发动地面和空中进攻以来死亡人数最多的夜晚之一。

Most of the victims were killed in a single Israeli airstrike on the Maghazi refugee camp, the Palestinian health ministry said. The Palestinian health ministry accused Israel of targeting roads in central Gaza, which had previously largely been spared, impeding ambulances. A spokesperson described the scene at Maghazi as a “massacre”.

巴勒斯坦卫生部表示，大多数受害者在以色列对马加齐难民营的一次空袭中丧生。该部指责以色列将加沙中部此前基本上被放过的道路当作军事打击目标，阻碍了救护车的通行。一位发言人将马加齐的空袭现场描述为“大屠杀”。

The ministry raised its death toll in Gaza to more than 20,400 since the start of the war on October 7, when Hamas militants infiltrated southern Israel, killing 1,200 people, according to Israeli authorities. Israel has responded with a bombardment and invasion of the enclave that it says is intended to eradicate the militant group.

据巴勒斯坦卫生部统计，自10月7日战争爆发以来，加沙地带的死亡人数已增至逾2.04万余人。以色列当局称，哈马斯武装分子在10月7日突袭以色列南部，杀害至少1200人。以色列以轰炸和入侵加沙这块巴勒斯坦飞地作为回应，称其目的是消灭该武装组织。
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The Israel Defense Forces said on Monday that its fighter jets also attacked Khan Younis in southern Gaza, killing a Hamas commander.

以色列国防军周一表示，其战斗机还袭击了加沙南部的汗尤尼斯，炸死一名哈马斯指挥官。

On Christmas Eve in Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank, seasonal festivities were called off out of respect for the losses in Gaza, though celebrants gathered at the Nativity Church for a muted, candle-lit mass and read prayers for peace.

在地处被占领的约旦河西岸的伯利恒，出于对加沙损失的尊重，平安夜的传统庆祝活动被取消，尽管人们聚集在圣诞教堂，举行低调的烛光弥撒，并诵读和平祈祷文。

In Rome, Pope Francis decried the violence. “Tonight, our hearts are in Bethlehem, where the Prince of Peace is once more rejected by the futile logic of war, by the clash of arms that even today prevents him from finding room in the world,” he said.

在罗马，教皇方济各谴责了暴力事件。“今晚，我们的心在伯利恒，和平之君再次在那里被徒劳的战争逻辑和武装冲突所拒绝，即使在今天，武装冲突仍然阻止他在世界上找到容身之地，”他表示。

Israeli forces suffered high losses over the weekend, with 15 soldiers killed in two days, the military said on Sunday, and two further deaths on Monday, bringing the total to 156 soldiers killed since the start of the war.

以色列军方周日表示，以军在周末损失惨重，两天共有15名军人阵亡，周一又有两人阵亡，使战争开始以来的阵亡官兵总数达到156人。

Despite the mounting casualties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed in a Christmas message to press on until Israel prevails, saying the country was fighting against “monsters” in “a battle of civilisation against barbarism”.

尽管伤亡不断增加，但以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在圣诞节致辞中誓言要继续这场战争，直到以色列取得胜利。他称，该国正在“一场文明与野蛮的战斗”中与“恶魔”作战。

“Christmas is supposed to be a time of goodwill to all men and peace on Earth. Well, we don’t have peace on Earth, not in our part anyway,” Netanyahu said, adding: “We shall win this war and secure our common values.”

“圣诞节理应是一个对所有人表达善意的时刻、地球和平的时刻。可是，地球上没有和平，反正我们所在的地区没有和平，”内塔尼亚胡表示。他补充道：“我们将赢得这场战争，保卫我们的共同价值观。”

Despite 11 weeks of fighting, Israel has not managed to achieve its obxtives of “destroying” Hamas as a military and governing force in Gaza and securing the return of more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages.

尽管战斗已持续了11周，但以色列尚未实现其目标，即“消灭”作为加沙军事和统治力量的哈马斯，并让100多名仍然被俘的以色列人质安全回家。

Egypt, which alongside Qatar is attempting to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, has drafted a proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal, Israeli media reported on Sunday. The plan would see fighting halt for a fortnight and the release of 40 women, children and elderly people held hostage by Hamas in exchange for 120 Palestinians in Israeli prisons.

据以色列媒体周日报道，与卡塔尔一起试图促成以哈休战的埃及，起草了一份停火和人质协议。该计划将意味着休战两周，哈马斯释放被其扣为人质的40名妇女、儿童和老人，以交换以色列监狱中的120名巴勒斯坦人。

In the second phase of the deal, Egypt would co-ordinate talks between Palestinian factions to create a single government over Gaza and the West Bank, a total ceasefire and the completion of the hostage exchange.

在协议的第二阶段，埃及将协调巴勒斯坦各派别之间的谈判，争取在加沙和约旦河西岸建立一个单一政府，从而实现全面停火并完成人质交换。

Amid growing criticism in Israel of the lack of clear military success and the growing death toll among its soldiers, Israel’s president Isaac Herzog called for unity.

目前以色列国内有越来越多的人批评以色列缺乏明显的军事成功，而官兵阵亡人数不断增加。面对这一情况，以色列总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格呼吁团结。

Israel’s enemies “celebrate when they see the cracks between us”, Herzog warned, urging politicians to exercise restraint in airing grievances. “I appeal directly to the leaders of the people . . at this time there is one imperative: and that is for unity.”

赫尔佐格警告称，以色列的敌人“在看到我们之间的裂痕时会庆祝”。他敦促政界人士在表达不满时保持克制。“我直接向人民的领导人发出呼吁……此时此刻只有一个当务之急：那就是团结。”

Over the weekend, thousands protested in Tel Aviv against the government and called for elections. The crowd was addressed by relatives of civilians killed on October 7 by Hamas, and by a soldier who pledged to sue the government for its failures.

周末期间，数千人在特拉维夫抗议政府并呼吁举行选举。10月7日被哈马斯杀害的平民的亲属向人群发表讲话，还有一名军人誓言要提起诉讼，追究政府的失败。