QA问答:同样制度的国家,中国如何能够成功实现工业化,而其他尝试工业化的国家(例如越南)却面临困难?
2024-01-16 Aya Shawn 12417
正文翻译

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Aya Shawn
Living in Singapore, professional investorDec 29
As a Chinese learner
I quote an ancient Chinese proverb: Tall buildings rise from the ground.
To quote another ancient Roman proverb: Rome was not built in a day
"Industrialization" is a very broad term.

作为一名汉语学习者
我引用一句中国古话:万丈高楼从地起。
引用另一句古罗马谚语:罗马不是一天建成的
“工业化”是一个非常广泛的术语。

“Industrialization” in South Asia
What Vietnam or some emerging countries are doing is not real "industrialization". What they are doing is just a branch of industrialization: manufacturing.
Foreign capital enters to build factories; foreign materials, technology, parts, and domestic cheap labor are used to manufacture products.
China also went through this stage when it began its reform and opening up in the 1980s. Global capital is pouring into China, and countless products are manufactured in China and sold to other countries.

越南或一些新兴国家所做的并不是真正的“工业化”。他们所做的只是工业化的一个分支:加工制造业。
这意味着外资进入,建厂,使用外国材料、技术、零部件以及国内廉价劳动力来制造产品。
中国在20世纪80年代改革开放时也经历过这个阶段。全球资本涌入中国,无数产品在中国制造并销往其他国家。

Real “industrialization”: Sinopec plants in 1980 of China
This seems to be the same process that Vietnam is going through today. Therefore, some people believe that Vietnam will also follow this path, and then gradually upgrade, rise, and successfully complete industrialization.
However, they sextively ignored a key issue, the huge difference in fundamentals between China in the 1980s and Vietnam now.
In the 1980s, China had actually completed industrialization. At that time, China had a complete heavy industry foundation and system. Steel, rubber, petrochemicals, machinery manufacturing, electronic parts and instruments could all be manufactured independently. At that time, China was actually a smaller country. version of the Soviet unx. These were all completed during the socialist period, and all they lacked was the more advanced technology and consumer industries of Western countries.

这似乎与今天的越南正在经历的过程相同。因此,有人认为,越南也会走这条路,然后逐步升级、崛起,顺利完成工业化。
然而,他们选择性地忽略了一个关键问题,即20世纪80年代的中国与现在的越南之间的巨大基本面差异。
20世纪80年代,中国实际上已经完成了工业化。当时的中国已经有了完整的重工业基础和体系。钢铁、橡胶、石化、机械制造、电子零部件、仪器仪表等均可自主生产。
那时的中国实际上是一个苏联的缩小版。这些成就都是在社会主义时期完成的,他们缺少的只是西方国家更先进的技术和消费工业。

If you imagine China as a basketball player, he had already done physical training for many years, and what he lacked was just basketball skill training.
But Vietnam does not have such a foundation. To be precise, before the large influx of foreign investment into Vietnam, Vietnam was a purely agricultural country. If Vietnam can be compared to a basketball player, then he was selling newspapers yesterday and starts participating in skills training today.
Without a solid foundation, the building's height will be limited. Vietnam's manufacturing industry will soon face a ceiling, and some South Asian countries will also face this problem.
Real industrialization is not easy to accomplish.

如果你把中国想象成一名篮球运动员,他已经进行了很多年的体能训练,缺乏的只是篮球技术训练。
但越南没有这样的基础。准确地说,在外资大量涌入越南之前,越南是一个纯粹的农业国家。
如果把越南比作一名篮球运动员,那么他昨天还在卖报纸,今天就突然开始参加技能训练。
没有坚实的地基,建筑物的高度就会受到限制。越南制造业很快将面临天花板,一些南亚国家也将面临这个问题。
真正的工业化并不容易实现。

评论翻译
AnhAnh
Industrialisation doesn't mean you have to make everything by yourself. By your logics, Japan and SKorea aren't as industrialised as China, as well as Singapore.
Viet Nam's ultimate obxtive isn't really Industrialisation, either. Yes, industries will play an important role but not all industries need factories and machines. Tourism is a good example, not that we have been doing it well.
Viet Nam has the advantage of being a late comer, emerging at an interesting time when the old industries have fully matured while new indsutries are being conceptualised and growing as we speak. We get to choose which industries we like. We will make mistakes but we have more options.
We are not even sure we like full-on industrialisation even if we are capable. There are always two sides to a coin. Heavy industries usually pollute terribly. What good is all that money if you're unwell?
Conversely, agriculture isn't a bad option these days. People will always need to eat or if they're full, will pay more for better food. Not that agriculture, if done wrong, cannot cause significant damage to the habitat but it's more manageable.
Or maybe, we can do both and that seems to be the direction we are heading. The Mekong Delta has a lot arable land, the Red River Delta has large population and access to minerals of all sorts.

工业化并不意味着你必须自己制造一切。按照你的逻辑,日本和韩国的工业化程度不如中国和新加坡。
越南的最终目标也不是真正的工业化。是的,重工业将发挥重要作用,但并非所有工业都需要工厂和机器。
旅游业就是一个很好的例子,当然这并不是说我们做得很好。
越南的优势在于它是一个后来居上的国家,它是在一个恰当的时刻出现的,当时旧产业已经完全成熟,而新的产业正在概念化和发展。我们可以选择自己喜欢的行业。我们会犯错误,但我们有更多的选择。
即使我们有能力,我们甚至不确定自己是否喜欢全面工业化。硬币总是有两面的。重工业通常污染严重。如果你身体不适,这些钱有什么用?
相反,如今农业也不是一个糟糕的选择。人们总是需要吃饭,或者如果他们吃饱了,就会为更好的食物支付更多的费用。
并不是说农业就不会对自然造重大破坏,而是更容易控制。
或者,我们可以两者兼而有之,这似乎是我们前进的方向。湄公河三角洲有大量可耕地,红河三角洲人口众多,可以获得各种矿产。

Aya Shawn
I'm afraid you know nothing about the industrialization of Japan and South Korea
Both Japan and South Korea have strong heavy industry, steel industry, petrochemical industry, and are also the world's largest shipbuilding and automobile manufacturing countries. Like China, they are truly industrialized countries.

恐怕你对日本和韩国的工业化一无所知
日本和韩国都拥有强大的重工业、钢铁工业、石化工业,也是世界上最大的造船和汽车制造国之一。和中国一样,它们也是真正的工业化国家。

Effweye Yen
Well stated. A common theme for EVERY industrialized power is the ability to produce steel, heavy industry, industrial machinery, etc.
It is no coincidence that the major industrial powersof WW2 remain the “developed” countries today. Can't do that by simply making Nikes and setting up call centers….

说得很好。每个工业化国家的一个共同主题是生产钢铁、重工业、工业机械等的能力。
第二次世界大战的主要工业大国今天仍然是“发达”国家,这绝非巧合。不能仅仅通过制作耐克和建立呼叫中心来做到这一点…。

Lim TP
We are already in the 5th Industrial Revolution where technology are replacing many manual labour and mechanical works to increase productivity, better built quality products with lower cost using green and renewable energies. China is leading this direction.

我们已经进入了第五次工业革命,技术正在取代许多体力劳动和机械工作,以提高生产力,使用绿色和可再生能源以更低的成本生产出质量更好的产品。中国正朝着这个方向前进。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


dg yz
China is indeed leading the future. China's robotics, artificial intelligence, and new energy industries are in a leading position in the world.

中国确实在引领未来。中国的机器人、人工智能和新能源产业处于世界领先地位。

Terri Ferrari
Then why does it keep building so many coal burning plants and import so much oil?

那么,为什么它继续建造这么多燃煤工厂,进口这么多石油呢?

Faustin Gashakamba
If you think you can chose which parts of industry to pick and ones to drop, then think again. This only works in a truly globalized economy. The way things are heading now is isolation, sanctions here and there (read protectionism), and nationalists raising everywhere. That means every nation that needs to prosper has to be self-sufficient in every industry that matters.

如果你真的认为你可以自由选择哪些行业,放弃哪些行业,那就需要再好好思考一下。这只适用于真正全球化的经济。现在的情况是孤立,到处都是制裁(读作保护主义),到处都有民族主义者。这意味着每个需要繁荣的国家都必须在每个重要的行业自给自足。

Zhang Le
Jesus. As a small country with more than 100 millions population, if you focus your economy on agriculture. Good luck!
Even agriculture superpowers like Brazil and Agentina are not developed. How VN can?

上帝啊作为一个拥有1亿多人口的小国,如果你把经济重点放在农业上。祝你好运
即使是像巴西和阿根廷这样的农业超级大国也不发达。越南怎么能做到?

AnhAnh
And how do you think we manage to feed ourselves and still have enough left to export?
Agriculture focus does not mean only agriculture. I thought it was self-explanatory.
Brazil is among the world's top food exporters but Argentina isn't really a superpower in anything.

你认为我们是如何养活自己,同时还有足够的出口量的?
关注农业并不意味着只关注农业。我认为这是不言自明的。
巴西是世界上最大的粮食出口国之一,但阿根廷在任何方面都不是真正的超级大国。

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Zhang Le
Feeding yourself is just a fundamental requirement. Nothing impressive

养活自己只是一个基本要求。没有什么令人印象深刻的

AnhAnh
Thank you. It has not always been this easy.

非常感谢。这并不总是那么容易。

Cuong Nguyen Viet
He is answering based on his knowledge. However, he is not someone who knows everything, so there will be many errors in this answer. However, from his answer we can see another perspective. Tourism also needs machinery and factories but it will have a different name.

答主是根据自己的知识来回答的。然而,他不是一个无所不知的人,所以这个答案会有很多错误。然而,从他的回答中我们可以看到另一个视角。
旅游业也需要机器和工厂,但它将有一个不同的名字。

Hòa Nguyễn
You don’t even know what “industry” is. People call Tourism an Industry, or Food and Beverage an industry, or do you hear about sex industry? Is that also an industry? That’s just common language for business, not the real “industry” in pure sense.
Vietnam is building up core heavy industries, for the real industrializarion. Not by tourism, agriculture, real estate and construction (well, a little), not by financial sector, but by automotive and ship building industry, electric and energy, petro - chemical, machinery, which drag the full supply chain of heavy industry up, which includes all necessary technologies for the core production. The difficult point is domestic demand and market, which should be large enough to feed the whole system of big investment low profit of those. There is also new tech and new industries, like EV and computing industry, which is high investment high profit, to compensate the basic heavy low profitability in the whole scheme. But for the domestic demand to be large enough, the first point should be a very deep pool market of light industry production. It is the market for domestic heavy industry. No one could count on foreign market for that process. However, the light industry build up could be done by foreign investment, capital and technology transfert. That’s what happenning now. The heavy industry technologies we could acquire easily nowaday, but to whom we produce and sell to, that’s the biggest stupidest question; to ourselves, that’s the most apparent answer.

你甚至不知道什么是“行业”。人们把旅游业称为行业,或者把食品和饮料称为行业。或者你听说过色情行业吗?这也是一个行业吗?这只是商业的通用语言,而不是纯粹意义上的真正“行业”。
越南正在建立核心重工业,以实现真正的工业化。不是旅游业、农业、房地产和建筑业(嗯,有一点),也不是金融部门,而是汽车和造船业、电力和能源、石油化工、机械,这些行业支撑了重工业的整个供应链,其中包括核心生产的所有必要技术。难点是内需和市场,内需和市场需要足够大,足以养活这个投资大但利润低的系统。
还有新技术和新产业,比如电动汽车和计算机行业,它们是高投资高利润的,可以补偿整个方案中低利润的部分。但要想国内需求足够大,首先需要一个强大的轻工业,它将构成国内重工业的市场。没有人能指望外国市场来推动这一进程。轻工业的建设可以通过外国投资、资本和技术转让来完成。这就是现在发生的事情。
现在我们可以很容易地获得重工业技术,但我们生产和销售给谁,这是最麻烦的问题;
对我们自己来说,这是最明显的答案。

AnhAnh
One fact doesn't exclude the other.
Yes, the sex industry is a bona fide industry. Just because Viet Nam doesn't officially regconise it doesn't mean it doesn't exist or not a “real" industry.

一个事实并不能排除另一个事实。
是的,色情行业是一个真正的行业。仅仅因为越南没有正式监管,并不意味着它不存在或不是一个“真正的”行业。

Hòa Nguyễn
Ok. Here a way to figure out if it’s a real industry or not. Productivity - the way industrial revolution happened.
Now, let’s say the productivity of a sex worker is 4 products/service per hour. If renovate with technology to increase productivity 10 times more, that to say, a sex worker would suck 40 dicks per hour, with production improvement. Could they really do that, how do you think?

好的。这里有一个方法来判断它是否是一个真正的行业:什么是生产力——工业革命
现在,假设性工作者的生产力是每小时4次服务。如果用技术进行升级,生产力可以提高10倍以上,也就是说,随着生产的提高,性工作者每小时可以吮吸40个JB。他们真的可以吗?你觉得呢?

Cuong Nguyen Viet
It's still industrialization. If you read a study on Quora by Carl Hamilton, you will understand. But the method you compare is not very reasonable.
For a country newly liberated in 1975 and recently at peace, the comparison with a country that has been at peace for a long time like China is not too good.

它仍然是工业化。如果你读了卡尔·汉密尔顿关于Quora的研究,你就会明白了。但是你比较的方法不是很合理。
对于一个1975年刚刚解放、最近处于和平状态的国家来说,与像中国这样长期处于和平的国家相比并不太好。

Dylan
Quang Nguyen
Sometime ‘Industrialization” = “heavy pollution”.
It is smarter to learn know-how and deploy in small scale and get the best products from the world instead of producing garbage yourselves. I don’t like “Great-Leap”, “everyone makes steel”, …

有时“工业化”=“重污染”。
更明智的做法是学习专业知识,小规模部署,从世界上获得最好的产品,而不是自己制造垃圾。我不喜欢“大跃进”,“大炼钢铁”…

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Effweye Yen
You must totally love Cambodia, hardly any pollution.

你一定非常热爱柬埔寨,几乎没有任何污染。

David Ransom
From what I can tell China is not a communist country
it is a centralised capitalist system by the look of it
I didn’t see any evidence of Communism- just socialism similar to many first world countries

据我所知,中国不是一个共产主义国家
从表面上看,这是一个中央集权的资本主义体系
我没有看到任何共产主义的证据——只有与许多第一世界国家相似的社会主义

James Heng
Political stability, ensuring long term policies implementation.

政治稳定,确保政策长期执行。

Siu Yim
All foundations built with the encouragement of good old USA which imposed comprehensive sanctions upon the country's birth.

所有这些建设都是在美国的鼓励下建立的,美国对这个国家实施了全面的制裁。

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