[ 美国 市场观察 ] 是中国而不是特斯拉在推动电动汽车革命
2019-10-16 bluebit 33027
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Opinion: China, not Tesla, is driving the electric-car revolution
By Jack Barkenbus Published: May 15, 2019 9:01 a.m. ET

是中国而不是特斯拉在推动电动汽车革命

Chinese consumers bought 1.1 million electric vehicles last year; U.S. sales were 358,000

中国消费者去年购买了110万辆电动汽车,而美国仅销量了35.8万辆


AFP/Getty Images
Visitors look at a Gyon electric luxury car at the Shanghai Auto Show in April.

ByJackBarkenbus2019年 4月,游客们在上海车展上观看“歌昂”豪华电动车

The electric vehicle revolution is coming, but it won’t be driven by the U.S. Instead, China will be at the forefront.

电动汽车革命即将到来,但它不会由美国来推动。相反,中国将走在前沿

My research on EVs, dating back a decade, convinces me that this global transformation in mobility, from petroleum-fueled vehicles to electric ones, will come sooner than later. The shift is already happening in China, which is the world’s largest automobile market, with 23 million cars sold in 2018. As Western countries approach peak car ownership, there are still hundreds of millions of Chinese families that don’t own a car at all — much less two or more.

10年前我开始对电动汽车进行研究,这让我相信,全球交通从石油燃料汽车到电动汽车的转型迟早会到来。而且这种转变已经在中国发生。中国是世界上最大的汽车市场,2018年的汽车销量为2300万辆。随着西方国家的汽车保有量接近峰值,中国仍有数亿家庭根本没有汽车——更不用说有两辆或是更多了。

Many of them are buying electric cars. By 2015, electric vehicle sales in China had surpassed U.S. levels. In 2018, Chinese sales topped 1.1 million cars, more than 55% of all electric vehicles sold in the world, and more than three times as many as Chinese customers had bought two years earlier. U.S. electric vehicle sales that year were just 358,000.

不少中国人正在买电动汽车。到2015年,中国的电动汽车销量已经超越美国。2018年,中国的汽车销量超过110万辆,占全球电动汽车销量的55%以上,是中国两年前购车总量的三倍多。而美国当年的电动汽车销量仅为35.8万辆。

A key element of an electric vehicle’s price is the cost of its batteries — and China already makes more than half of the world’s electric vehicle batteries. Battery prices continue to fall; industry analysts now suggest that within five years it will be cheaper to buy an electric car than a gas- or diesel-powered one.

电动汽车价格的其中一个主要因素是电池的成本,而中国已经生产了全球一半以上的电动汽车电池。规模效应至使电池价格继续下跌;行业分析师目前认为,未来五年内,电动汽车将比汽柴油动力汽车变得更便宜。

Huge government backing

政府全力扶持

China has a fledgling, but ambitious, automobile industry. It has never been able to match the efficiency and quality of established auto makers at making gas-powered vehicles, but electric vehicles are easier to build, giving Chinese firms a new opportunity to compete.

中国有一个尚未成熟但雄心勃勃的汽车工业。它在生产燃气动力汽车方面的效率和质量一直无法与老牌汽车制造商相比,但电动汽车制造相对容易,这给了中国企业一个新的竞争机会。

The Chinese government, therefore, has chosen to highlight electric vehicles as one of 10 commercial sectors central to its “Made in China” effort to boost advanced industrial technology. Government efforts include using billions of dollars to subsidize manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries, and encouraging businesses and consumers to buy them.

因此,中国政府选择将电动汽车列为“中国制造”推动先进工业技术的10个核心商业领域之一。政府扶持方式包括提供数十亿美元,用于补贴电动汽车和电池的生产,鼓励企业和消费者购买电动汽车和电池。

The government is also aware that electric vehicles could help solve some of China’s most pressing energy and environmental concerns: Massive air pollution chokes its major cities, national security officials are worried about how much oil the country imports and China is now the nation contributing most to global climate change emissions.

政府也意识到中国的电动汽车可以帮助一些目前急需解决的能源环境问题,比如解决笼罩在一些大城市中的空气污染,减轻国家安全官员进口石油负担。目前,中国现在是影响全球气候变化排放量最大的国家。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


New companies

新公司

Scores of Chinese auto-making companies have formed to profit from these subsidies. A major player is BYD BYDDY, +2.06% 002594, -1.16%, which stands for “Build Your Dreams,” based in Shenzhen. More than a decade ago, billionaire investor Warren Buffett bought about a quarter of the company for $232 million — a share that is now worth more than $1.5 billion.

已有数十家中国汽车制造企业受从补贴中受益。总部位于深圳的比亚迪公司是其中主要的参与者,BYD的含义为“筑梦”(Build Your Dreams)。十多年前,亿万富翁沃伦?巴菲特以2.32亿美元的价格购买了该公司大约四分之一的股份,目前现在这部分股份价值已超过15亿美元。

The company’s initial plans to export vehicles to the U.S. proved premature and fizzled. BYD instead started to focus mainly on the Chinese auto market, as well as building electric buses for the global market, which it now dominates.

事实证明, BYD公司起先向美国出口汽车的计划是不成熟的,最终以失败告终。相反,比亚迪开始注重中国汽车市场,以及该公司目前在全球市场上占据主导地位的电动巴士
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


If BYD’s electric car plans falter, though, there are plenty of other Chinese firms ready to pick up the slack.

不过,即使比亚迪的电动汽车计划遇挫,还有其他众多望眼欲穿的中国公司正积极准备弥补这一缺口。

Further support

进一步扶持

In addition to the government subsidies to ensure BYD and its competitors have lots of customers, new government regulations are kicking in. The Chinese government now requires all auto makers who sell in China, whether domestic or foreign firms, to make a certain percentage of their sales electric, through a complex crediting formula. The mandate will get stricter over time, perhaps requiring each company to make at least 7% of their sales electric by 2025.

为确保比亚迪以其竞争对手拥有大量客户,除政府出资补贴外,还出台了新的规定。中国政府现在要求所有在华销售的汽车生产商,无论国内或是国外企业,都必须通过一个复杂的信贷准则,将一定比例的销售收入投入到电动汽车。随着时间的推移,这一要求将愈来愈严格,至2025也许会要求每家公司年至少实现7%的电动汽车销售

Major foreign car companies have large investments in China and can hardly afford to abandon the market. Volkswagen VOW3, +4.91% VWAPY, +5.58%, for example, now sells 40% of its output in China, which is a main reason the company is pushing hard to develop electric vehicles.

外国大型汽车公司均在中国有大量投资,它们很难承担放弃中国市场的代价。以大众汽车(Volkswagen)为例,该公司目前40%的产量销往中国,同时这也是该公司大力开发电动汽车的一个主要原因。

China’s domestic auto makers have largely not yet engaged in the export market. Electric vehicle industry analyst Jose Pontes says there are three reasons for their reluctance: First, the Chinese market is big enough to absorb their current production. Second, many car companies in China are utterly unknown in the West, so customers would be wary of buying from a strange brand. And third, their cars do not yet comply with strict safety regulations in the U.S. and Europe.

中国国内汽车生产商基本上尚未涉足出口市场。电动汽车行业分析师何塞?庞特斯(Jose Pontes)表示,他们之所以不愿这么做,有三个原因:第一,中国市场足够大,能够内部消化目前的产量。其次,中国汽车品牌在西方默默无闻,所以消费者在购买一个陌生品牌的汽车时比较谨慎。第三,他们的汽车还不符合美国和欧洲严格的安全规定。

Jack Barkenbus is a visiting scholar at the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy & Environment at Vanderbilt University. This was first published on The Conversation — “The electric vehicle revolution will come from China, not the US.”

杰克?巴肯巴斯是范德比尔特大学范德比尔特能源与环境研究所的访问学者。这篇文章首次发表在《对话》上——“电动汽车革命将来自中国,而不在美国。“

评论翻译
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:bluebit 转载请注明出处

YilmazLeader
They have 4x the population and 4x the EV sales approximately so it''''''''s proportional. Since they''re communist they can ban ICE cars and mandate electric so I''''''''m sure their further adoption will be quicker.

他们大约有我们4倍人口,所以有4倍的电动车销量是成比例的。还有他们是XX主义,所以他们可以取缔化石燃料车,要求使用电动汽车,我相信他们将来会很快的实现的。

jim stack
China is leading the EV changes but only in China. Tesla has affected the entire world including China. Some day China will sell in the USA and Europe but not much so far. Tesla also makes the best batteries and uses them in the Power Wall for homes and Power Pack utilities. They sell them by the Mega Watt.

中国正在引领电动汽车的变革,但仅局限于中国。特斯拉产生的影响除中国还包括了整个世界。总有一天中国会把车卖到欧美国家,虽然目前还没卖出多少。特斯拉还生产最好的电池,用于未来家庭和公用电网。而且会以百万瓦特为单位卖出的。

richard vivianInfluencer
This article misses the obvious point that Tesla is building a Gigafactory in China right now. In fact, it is likely to set the record for the fastest build of any car factory in history. Tesla is the only car company in the world that is allowed to 100% own its Chinese factory. The battery technology and IT smarts that Tesla will bring to the Chinese market far exceed anything being produced locally and Tesla is likely to dominate the premium electric car segment in China. I agree that China will dominate the global shift to BEV''''''''s but Tesla will play a significant hand in pushing the Chinese to produce better and more competitive vehicles that will sell in the West. So to correct the headline on this article it should read -China and Tesla are driving the electric vehicle revolution.

文章忽略了一个显而易见的事实:特斯拉目前正在中国建一个超级工厂。事实上,中国很可能创造了历史上建造汽车工厂最快的记录。特斯拉是世界上唯一一家允许全资拥有中国工厂的汽车公司。特斯拉将带给中国市场的电池技术和智能将远超本地所生产的任何东西,而且特斯拉很可能会在中国高端电动汽车市场占到主导地位。我同意世界向电动汽车的转变由中国来主导,在中国生产的特斯拉会在西方会卖的更好,也更富有竞争力。因此,这篇文章的标题应该改为《中国与特斯拉正共同推动电动汽车革命》

JOHN HUNTLeader
Interesting article. Never underestimate the Chinese. Look how far they have come since Nixon visited to open them up. Their average IQ is about 5 points higher than average IQ in the USA. Their work ethic is incredible. Any info on PRC trade barriers to EV''''''''s made outside of PRC? Tariffs, non-tariff barriers. I''''''''ve heard the PRC does that sometimes.

有趣的文章。千万要低估中国人。看看自尼克松访问开放以来,他们都取得了多么大的成就。他们的平均智商比美国人高5点。他们极具敬业精神。有对在中国生产电动汽车制造贸易壁垒的消息吗?关税、非关税壁垒。我听说中国有时也这么做
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Anne Keller
Where i can, i try avoid anything that''''''''s made it China, i''''''''d rather be broke because i bought a Tesla than use my pocket change in a Chinese car

只要有机会,我绝对不会用任何中国造的东西,买特斯拉,我宁愿破产,即使有闲钱也不可能去买一辆中国车。

Eric FisherLeader
Anne Keller
China has already tried to enter the US market (BYD) but ran like crazy with the tail between their legs after only a few months. They still make low tech poor quality stuff.

中国已有进入美国市场的打算了了(比如比亚迪),但它仅仅在这里呆了几个月,就发疯似的跑了。他们仍是低技术、低品质的代名词。

JP White
The headline is crazy to compare a single company to a super power. The article itself talked more about China vs US which is a valid comparison, and yes China are on track to win.

把一家公司形容成超级大国,这标题起的简直是疯了。文章通篇在比中美那个更行,好吧,美国输了,行了吧。

Average JoeLeader
China electric cars are point A to B. Telsa''''''''s making electric cars an experience. Chinese government does not allow its citizens to buy a car without permission and they are not giving permission to very many people to buy ICE cars forcing citizens to buy electric. Now that China subsidies are over just watch what happens next quarter. Americans will not buy the cars China is making, just wait until they try shortly.

中国到电动汽车的转变。他们买车必须在...允许下才能买,现在是X着他们买新能源车中的电动车。现在中国的补贴都给完了,看看下个季度怎么样吧。美国人不会买中国造的汽车,只是让他们先试一下,我们等等看。

Phil PoeschlLeader
Average Joe
Yeah and guess what, the majority of American and Chinese citizens cannot afford Tesla''''''''s "experience"

你猜怎么着,无论是中国人还是美国人都“承受”不了特斯拉的“体验”。

gary CampLeader
Phil Poeschl
The bottom line Tesla price with the latest increase is nearly identical to the AVERAGE price of an American car sold today.

产量提高后的特斯拉,这一轮的最低价格几乎与现在美国汽车的平均价售价不多了。
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o Phil PoeschlLeader
gary Camp
oh baloney. I can buy a nicely equipped Honda Accord today for around 25k. It rides as nice as a Tesla, just not as quick. So what, traffic stops me from going "quick"....

哦,胡扯。现在我可以花2.5万美元买到一辆高配的本田雅阁。它开起来和特斯拉一样舒服,只是没那么快。那又怎样,路上不允许我“快”啊。
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Bob WilliamsLeader
I do not think it will be much longer before the US begins R.U.Tax on electric vehicles. This will change the picture when it comes to the cost of operating an EV in the USA !

我认为,美国很快就会开始收电动汽车税。这会改变美国电动汽车的营销成本!

Mike PowellLeader
Electric cars will come to the developed world, but in the Third World where there is no stable electricity supply and adoption will be slower. Light vehicle fleet usually has a twenty year turn over replacement , so I would expect the same for the adoption of electric vehicles to follow this- from Early Adopter high income vehicle buyers to low income used vehicle buyers. Tesla will be a small time player

电动汽车将进入发达国家,除了没有稳定电力供应和普及速度较慢的第三世界国家。轻型车一般都有20年的报废期,所以我估计电动汽车也能遵循这个规则——从初期的新车到低收入的二手车购车者。特斯拉只是个小角色。

Eric FisherLeader
China is building golf carts they want you to count as electric cars. Most have lead acid batteries. China is not really advanced like they seem to want you to think here. China is really are not the leaders in this field.

中国正在造高尔夫球车,他们想让你把它们算作电动汽车。车用的大多都是铅酸电池。中国并不像他们希望你想象的那样先进。中国真的不是这个领域的领导者。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


o Phil PoeschlLeader
Eric Fisher
yeah because it''''''''s SO difficult to pack a bunch of laptop batteries and an electric motor in a car......loser.

是啊,在车上装一堆笔记本电脑电池还要塞一个电力发动机,对他们来说太难了……是吧卢瑟。

o richard vivianInfluencer
Phil Poeschl
Audi and VW are proving that it is hard to do it competitively with Tesla and secure battery suppy. Their BEV''''''''s have very inefficient batteries.

奥迪和大众正在证明,在安全电池方面他们很难与特斯拉竞争。他们的电动汽车电池效率很低的。

Dave MartinLeader
I find it interesting that the article totally neglects the popularity of Teslas in China and the fact that Tesla is the first non-Chinese company to be allowed to own its Chinese manufacturing facilities. https://insideevs.com/news/349226/tesla-gigafactory-3-progress-may-13-2019/

有趣的是,这篇文章完全忽略了特斯拉在中国的受欢迎程度,还有特斯拉是第一家获准在中国建厂的非中国公司

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