哪些国家可能很快成为发达国家
正文翻译
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：魏晋余孽 转载请注明出处
Which countries are likely to be developed countries soon?
哪些国家可能很快就会成为发达国家？
哪些国家可能很快就会成为发达国家？
评论翻译
发达国家的人均国内生产总值(PPP)基准在2 - 2.5万美元之间，这是最低限度，而且该国的HDI（人类发展指数）必须高于0.800，且产业构成多样化。
共有17个国家符合这一标准，然而，仔细观察它们的人类发展指数或工业成分，就会明白为什么它们还不被认为是发达国家。如果他们能在10年内解决这些问题中的大部分，就能被认为是发达国家。我将从每个国家的主要问题开始评估，并基于此评估需要多长时间它们才能被认为是发达国家/地区:
1.卡塔尔:过度依赖一个行业，需要5年时间
2.新加坡:已经是发达国家
3.文莱:过度依赖一个行业，需要时间:5年
4.科威特:过度依赖一个行业，需要7年的时间
5.阿联酋:过度依赖一个行业，需要6年时间
6.沙特阿拉伯:过度依赖一个行业，需要10年时间
7.巴林:过度依赖一个行业，需要5年时间
8.台湾（地区）:已经是发达经济体
9.阿曼:过度依赖一个行业，需要5年时间
10.日本:已经是发达国家
11.韩国:已经是发达国家
12.以色列:已经是发达国家
13.马来西亚:HDI太低，需要3-4年时间
14.俄罗斯:过于依赖一个行业，需要时间:2年
15.土耳其:HDI太低，需要6年时间
16.哈萨克斯坦:HDI太低，需要3年时间
17.伊朗:过于依赖一个行业/人类发展指数过低，所需时间:10年
石油丰富的国家过于依赖于一个行业，但如果他们确实试图多样化，他们可以被认为在10年内就会达到发达国家的水平(阿联酋成功地做到了这一点)。
马来西亚将只需要3年就可以成为发达国家，因为它正在努力改善其人类发展指数。
俄罗斯过于依赖天然气，但只要其主要产业多样化，就可以在两年内发展起来，因为俄罗斯人的生活水平已经与发达国家相当。
土耳其的HDI为0.761，需要6年时间才能达到0.800的水平，然后才能成为发达国家。
哈萨克斯坦的发展水平与马来西亚相当，其发展所需时间与马来西亚大致相当。
伊朗过于依赖于一个行业，但现在对其制裁已经解除，我们可以看到一些显然的改善，伊朗的HDI 是0.766，需要10年才能达到0.800的关口。
关于中国和印度这两个主要经济体:
中国，需要10年，紧随其后的是斯里兰卡和蒙古。
印度，需要30年，紧随其后的是乌兹别克斯坦(越南和印度尼西亚将在印度不久之前成为发达国家)。
除东欧以外，下一批即将成为发达国家的国家将来自东亚(中国、蒙古)、东南亚(马来西亚)、中亚(哈萨克斯坦)、西亚(石油富国+伊朗和土耳其)。
译者注:本节回答于2018年
哈萨克斯坦的国旗。
2017年，根据人类发展指数，哈萨克斯坦已经达到了“非常高”的发展水平。哈萨克斯坦的GDP正在增长，而且没有放缓的迹象。
与中亚其他许多国家不同，哈萨克斯坦大部分地区的生活条件很好，而且还在不断改善。以吉尔吉斯斯坦为例，比什凯克是一个宜居的好城市，但在冬天，农村的一些地区可能缺乏良好的学校和电力。在哈萨克斯坦，这并不是什么大问题，因为即使是在偏远地区，人们的生活水平通常也很好，犯罪率也很低。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
哈萨克斯坦北部的Kustanay。图片来自维基百科。
哈萨克斯坦幅员辽阔，人口稀少。这两点对哈萨克斯坦是个巨大帮助，因为其所拥有的许多自然资源不会被争夺，能平等地分给人民。西部的里海连接西方，也帮助哈萨克斯坦用船运输货物。
哈萨克斯坦现在已经开始经济多样化。这方面的例子包括诸如许多石油管道的建设，以及对农业产业更多的关注。一些世界上最好的苹果和核桃生长在哈萨克斯坦的南部。还有一个涉及与美国贸易联系的重大新项目。如果哈萨克斯坦与中国、俄罗斯和美国进行贸易，它同样会得到很多回报。
位于哈萨克斯坦西部的乌拉尔斯克。图片来自哈萨克斯坦旅游指南。
政治上，虽然哈萨克斯坦面临腐败，但它很稳定，没有冲突。
哈萨克斯坦在努尔苏丹?纳扎尔巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)的领导下实现了繁荣。但近年来他极大地帮助了这个国家，削弱了自己的权力，可能为民主铺平了道路。
哈萨克斯坦的未来似乎一片光明。我希望这个国家能给我们带来奇迹!
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：魏晋余孽 转载请注明出处
Martin Andrews
A lot of the answers have stated some of the Eastern European countries and I agree with them however another region that is soon going to have developed countries soon is Asia and Asia has some good candidates:
The GDP Per Capita (PPP) benchmark to be counted as developed is in the $20–25,000 range and that is the bare minimum also the country’s HDI has to be higher than 0.800 with a diversified industrial composition.
A total of 17 countries fit the bill however a closer look at their HDI or industrial composition would make it clear why they are not considered developed, a lot of them would be considered developed if they could fix these issues, most of this can be achieved within 10 years time, I will start by assessing each country on its major issue and how long it will take based on that:
Qatar: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Singapore: Already developed
Brunei: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Kuwait: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 7 years
UAE: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 6 years
Saudi Arabia: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 10 years
Bahrain: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Taiwan: Already developed
Oman: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Japan: Already developed
South Korea: Already developed
Israel: Already developed
Malaysia: HDI too low, time needed: 3–4 years
Russia: Relies too much on one industry, time needed: 2 years
Turkey: HDI too low, time needed: 6 years
Kazakhstan: HDI too low, time needed: 3 years
Iran: Relies too much on one industry/ HDI too low, time needed: 10 years
The oil rich countries rely on one industry too much but provided they do attempt to diversify they can be considered developed within 10 years time their living standards are already on a par with developed countries (UAE is successfully accomplishing this).
Malaysia will need only 3 years to become a developed country as it is making serious inroads into bettering its HDI.
Russia relies too much on natural gas but provided it diversify its main industry then it can become developed within just 2 years as their living standards are already on a par with developed countries.
Turkey’s HDI at 0.761 would need 6 years to hit the 0.800 mark by then becoming a developed country.
Kazakhstan is on a par with Malaysia in development and would roughly take the same amount of time as Malaysia to become developed.
Iran relies on one industry too much but now that the sanctions have been lifted we can see some serious improvement here, Iran’s HDI of 0.766 would need 10 years before hitting the 0.800 mark.
Regarding the major economies of China and India:
China: 10 years followed shortly after by Sri Lanka and Mongolia
India: 30 years followed shortly after by Uzbekistan (Vietnam and Indonesia will become developed shortly before India).
Other than Eastern Europe the next set of soon to be developed countries will come from East Asia (China, Mongolia), South East Asia (Malaysia), Central Asia (Kazakhstan), Western Asia (Oil rich countries + Iran and Turkey).
很多答案都提到了一些东欧国家，我也同意他们的观点，但是另一个即将成为发达国家的地区是亚洲，亚洲有一些很好的候选者:
A lot of the answers have stated some of the Eastern European countries and I agree with them however another region that is soon going to have developed countries soon is Asia and Asia has some good candidates:
The GDP Per Capita (PPP) benchmark to be counted as developed is in the $20–25,000 range and that is the bare minimum also the country’s HDI has to be higher than 0.800 with a diversified industrial composition.
A total of 17 countries fit the bill however a closer look at their HDI or industrial composition would make it clear why they are not considered developed, a lot of them would be considered developed if they could fix these issues, most of this can be achieved within 10 years time, I will start by assessing each country on its major issue and how long it will take based on that:
Qatar: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Singapore: Already developed
Brunei: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Kuwait: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 7 years
UAE: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 6 years
Saudi Arabia: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 10 years
Bahrain: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Taiwan: Already developed
Oman: Over reliance on one industry, time needed: 5 years
Japan: Already developed
South Korea: Already developed
Israel: Already developed
Malaysia: HDI too low, time needed: 3–4 years
Russia: Relies too much on one industry, time needed: 2 years
Turkey: HDI too low, time needed: 6 years
Kazakhstan: HDI too low, time needed: 3 years
Iran: Relies too much on one industry/ HDI too low, time needed: 10 years
The oil rich countries rely on one industry too much but provided they do attempt to diversify they can be considered developed within 10 years time their living standards are already on a par with developed countries (UAE is successfully accomplishing this).
Malaysia will need only 3 years to become a developed country as it is making serious inroads into bettering its HDI.
Russia relies too much on natural gas but provided it diversify its main industry then it can become developed within just 2 years as their living standards are already on a par with developed countries.
Turkey’s HDI at 0.761 would need 6 years to hit the 0.800 mark by then becoming a developed country.
Kazakhstan is on a par with Malaysia in development and would roughly take the same amount of time as Malaysia to become developed.
Iran relies on one industry too much but now that the sanctions have been lifted we can see some serious improvement here, Iran’s HDI of 0.766 would need 10 years before hitting the 0.800 mark.
Regarding the major economies of China and India:
China: 10 years followed shortly after by Sri Lanka and Mongolia
India: 30 years followed shortly after by Uzbekistan (Vietnam and Indonesia will become developed shortly before India).
Other than Eastern Europe the next set of soon to be developed countries will come from East Asia (China, Mongolia), South East Asia (Malaysia), Central Asia (Kazakhstan), Western Asia (Oil rich countries + Iran and Turkey).
很多答案都提到了一些东欧国家，我也同意他们的观点，但是另一个即将成为发达国家的地区是亚洲，亚洲有一些很好的候选者:
发达国家的人均国内生产总值(PPP)基准在2 - 2.5万美元之间，这是最低限度，而且该国的HDI（人类发展指数）必须高于0.800，且产业构成多样化。
共有17个国家符合这一标准，然而，仔细观察它们的人类发展指数或工业成分，就会明白为什么它们还不被认为是发达国家。如果他们能在10年内解决这些问题中的大部分，就能被认为是发达国家。我将从每个国家的主要问题开始评估，并基于此评估需要多长时间它们才能被认为是发达国家/地区:
1.卡塔尔:过度依赖一个行业，需要5年时间
2.新加坡:已经是发达国家
3.文莱:过度依赖一个行业，需要时间:5年
4.科威特:过度依赖一个行业，需要7年的时间
5.阿联酋:过度依赖一个行业，需要6年时间
6.沙特阿拉伯:过度依赖一个行业，需要10年时间
7.巴林:过度依赖一个行业，需要5年时间
8.台湾（地区）:已经是发达经济体
9.阿曼:过度依赖一个行业，需要5年时间
10.日本:已经是发达国家
11.韩国:已经是发达国家
12.以色列:已经是发达国家
13.马来西亚:HDI太低，需要3-4年时间
14.俄罗斯:过于依赖一个行业，需要时间:2年
15.土耳其:HDI太低，需要6年时间
16.哈萨克斯坦:HDI太低，需要3年时间
17.伊朗:过于依赖一个行业/人类发展指数过低，所需时间:10年
石油丰富的国家过于依赖于一个行业，但如果他们确实试图多样化，他们可以被认为在10年内就会达到发达国家的水平(阿联酋成功地做到了这一点)。
马来西亚将只需要3年就可以成为发达国家，因为它正在努力改善其人类发展指数。
俄罗斯过于依赖天然气，但只要其主要产业多样化，就可以在两年内发展起来，因为俄罗斯人的生活水平已经与发达国家相当。
土耳其的HDI为0.761，需要6年时间才能达到0.800的水平，然后才能成为发达国家。
哈萨克斯坦的发展水平与马来西亚相当，其发展所需时间与马来西亚大致相当。
伊朗过于依赖于一个行业，但现在对其制裁已经解除，我们可以看到一些显然的改善，伊朗的HDI 是0.766，需要10年才能达到0.800的关口。
关于中国和印度这两个主要经济体:
中国，需要10年，紧随其后的是斯里兰卡和蒙古。
印度，需要30年，紧随其后的是乌兹别克斯坦(越南和印度尼西亚将在印度不久之前成为发达国家)。
除东欧以外，下一批即将成为发达国家的国家将来自东亚(中国、蒙古)、东南亚(马来西亚)、中亚(哈萨克斯坦)、西亚(石油富国+伊朗和土耳其)。
译者注:本节回答于2018年
Abu-Bakir Waissi, I study geography
There are many definitions for a developed country. Are we talking about the Human Development Index? Economically? Some people say that a developed country needs to have civil rights and be a democracy instead of only being good economically.
Whatever the definition, I think that we have a good and promising case sitting in the relatively unknown country of Kazakhstan!
The flag of Kazakhstan.
In 2017, Kazakhstan already reached “Very High” development according to the Human Development Index. The GDP of Kazakhstan is going up and it is not showing signs of slowing.
The futuristic capital of Kazakhstan, Astana.
Unlike many other countries in central Asia, life conditions are good in much of Kazakhstan and they are continuing to improve. Using Kyrgyzstan as an example, Bishkek is a great city to live in, but some parts of the countryside can lack good schools or electricity during the winter. This isn’t nearly as much of an issue in Kazakhstan, where even the remote areas have generally good living standards and low crime rates.
Kustanay in northern Kazakhstan. Image from Wikimedia.
Kazakhstan is a vast nation with a low population. This has given it a huge boost as the many natural resources that it has are not fought over and able to be given to the people equally. Also helping Kazakhstan is the Caspian Sea to the west, helping Kazakhstan transport by boat as well.
Kazakhstan has now begun diversifying its economy. Examples of this are being a participant in many oil pipelines, and also focusing more on the agricultural industry. Some of the world’s best apples and walnuts grow in the south of Kazakhstan. There is also a major new project involving trading lixs with the United States. If Kazakhstan trades with China, Russia, and the U.S.A. equally it gets a lot back.
Uralsk in western Kazakhstan. Image from Kazakhstan Travel Guide.
Politically, though Kazakhstan faces corruption, it is stable and there are no conflicts. Kazakhstan has prospered under Nursultan Nazarbayev. Yes, he is an autocrat, but he has greatly helped the country and in recent years weakened his own powers, potentially paving the way for a democracy.
The future of Kazakhstan seems bright. I am hoping that this nation does us wonders!
发达国家有诸多定义。我们说的发达是指人类发展指数吗?还是指经济?有人说，一个发达国家需要公民权利和民主，而不仅仅是良好的经济。
无论如何定义，我认为我们有一个相对不为人知的国家可作为很好的一个案例----哈萨克斯坦!
There are many definitions for a developed country. Are we talking about the Human Development Index? Economically? Some people say that a developed country needs to have civil rights and be a democracy instead of only being good economically.
Whatever the definition, I think that we have a good and promising case sitting in the relatively unknown country of Kazakhstan!
The flag of Kazakhstan.
In 2017, Kazakhstan already reached “Very High” development according to the Human Development Index. The GDP of Kazakhstan is going up and it is not showing signs of slowing.
The futuristic capital of Kazakhstan, Astana.
Unlike many other countries in central Asia, life conditions are good in much of Kazakhstan and they are continuing to improve. Using Kyrgyzstan as an example, Bishkek is a great city to live in, but some parts of the countryside can lack good schools or electricity during the winter. This isn’t nearly as much of an issue in Kazakhstan, where even the remote areas have generally good living standards and low crime rates.
Kustanay in northern Kazakhstan. Image from Wikimedia.
Kazakhstan is a vast nation with a low population. This has given it a huge boost as the many natural resources that it has are not fought over and able to be given to the people equally. Also helping Kazakhstan is the Caspian Sea to the west, helping Kazakhstan transport by boat as well.
Kazakhstan has now begun diversifying its economy. Examples of this are being a participant in many oil pipelines, and also focusing more on the agricultural industry. Some of the world’s best apples and walnuts grow in the south of Kazakhstan. There is also a major new project involving trading lixs with the United States. If Kazakhstan trades with China, Russia, and the U.S.A. equally it gets a lot back.
Uralsk in western Kazakhstan. Image from Kazakhstan Travel Guide.
Politically, though Kazakhstan faces corruption, it is stable and there are no conflicts. Kazakhstan has prospered under Nursultan Nazarbayev. Yes, he is an autocrat, but he has greatly helped the country and in recent years weakened his own powers, potentially paving the way for a democracy.
The future of Kazakhstan seems bright. I am hoping that this nation does us wonders!
发达国家有诸多定义。我们说的发达是指人类发展指数吗?还是指经济?有人说，一个发达国家需要公民权利和民主，而不仅仅是良好的经济。
无论如何定义，我认为我们有一个相对不为人知的国家可作为很好的一个案例----哈萨克斯坦!
哈萨克斯坦的国旗。
2017年，根据人类发展指数，哈萨克斯坦已经达到了“非常高”的发展水平。哈萨克斯坦的GDP正在增长，而且没有放缓的迹象。
与中亚其他许多国家不同，哈萨克斯坦大部分地区的生活条件很好，而且还在不断改善。以吉尔吉斯斯坦为例，比什凯克是一个宜居的好城市，但在冬天，农村的一些地区可能缺乏良好的学校和电力。在哈萨克斯坦，这并不是什么大问题，因为即使是在偏远地区，人们的生活水平通常也很好，犯罪率也很低。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
哈萨克斯坦北部的Kustanay。图片来自维基百科。
哈萨克斯坦幅员辽阔，人口稀少。这两点对哈萨克斯坦是个巨大帮助，因为其所拥有的许多自然资源不会被争夺，能平等地分给人民。西部的里海连接西方，也帮助哈萨克斯坦用船运输货物。
哈萨克斯坦现在已经开始经济多样化。这方面的例子包括诸如许多石油管道的建设，以及对农业产业更多的关注。一些世界上最好的苹果和核桃生长在哈萨克斯坦的南部。还有一个涉及与美国贸易联系的重大新项目。如果哈萨克斯坦与中国、俄罗斯和美国进行贸易，它同样会得到很多回报。
位于哈萨克斯坦西部的乌拉尔斯克。图片来自哈萨克斯坦旅游指南。
政治上，虽然哈萨克斯坦面临腐败，但它很稳定，没有冲突。
哈萨克斯坦在努尔苏丹?纳扎尔巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)的领导下实现了繁荣。但近年来他极大地帮助了这个国家，削弱了自己的权力，可能为民主铺平了道路。
哈萨克斯坦的未来似乎一片光明。我希望这个国家能给我们带来奇迹!
Christopher Tan, I love geography.
I would say Chile.
According to the latest Human Development Index, which measures the state of development of a country based on education, health, and income per capita of its citizens, Chile ranked 35th, better than some developed countries in the EU such as Portugal and Slovakia.
Based on GDP per capita, they have also done quite well, where they successfully attained a similar level to several EU countries such as Croatia.
They are also relatively clean from corruption. In the latest Corruption Perception Index, they are ranked 26th, significantly better than some established European countries such as Spain and Italy.
The combination of relatively excellent educational attainment and health, moderately high income per capita, and good governance makes Chile just one step more from becoming a developed country.
我会说是智利。
根据最新的人类发展指数显示，智利排在第35位，好于葡萄牙和斯洛伐克等欧盟一些发达国家。该指数衡量的是一个国家基于教育、健康和人均收入的发展状况。
从人均GDP来看，智利的表现也相当不错，成功地达到了与克罗地亚等几个欧盟国家相当的水平。
他们也相对廉洁。在最新的腐败指数中，智利排在第26位，远远好于西班牙和意大利等一些老牌欧洲国家。
相对优秀的教育水平和健康状况、中等水平的人均收入以及良好的治理，使智利离成为发达国家仅多一步之遥。
I would say Chile.
According to the latest Human Development Index, which measures the state of development of a country based on education, health, and income per capita of its citizens, Chile ranked 35th, better than some developed countries in the EU such as Portugal and Slovakia.
Based on GDP per capita, they have also done quite well, where they successfully attained a similar level to several EU countries such as Croatia.
They are also relatively clean from corruption. In the latest Corruption Perception Index, they are ranked 26th, significantly better than some established European countries such as Spain and Italy.
The combination of relatively excellent educational attainment and health, moderately high income per capita, and good governance makes Chile just one step more from becoming a developed country.
我会说是智利。
根据最新的人类发展指数显示，智利排在第35位，好于葡萄牙和斯洛伐克等欧盟一些发达国家。该指数衡量的是一个国家基于教育、健康和人均收入的发展状况。
从人均GDP来看，智利的表现也相当不错，成功地达到了与克罗地亚等几个欧盟国家相当的水平。
他们也相对廉洁。在最新的腐败指数中，智利排在第26位，远远好于西班牙和意大利等一些老牌欧洲国家。
相对优秀的教育水平和健康状况、中等水平的人均收入以及良好的治理，使智利离成为发达国家仅多一步之遥。
Balaji Viswanathan (?????? ??????????), has a management degree and teaches business courses.
There are many ways to define a developed country. I will use IMF''''s advanced countries list. Page on imf.org These countries that are not in the list are likely to enter in the future. I will take a GDP-per-capita of $30,000 in PPP terms as the minimum bar for a developed nation. That is slightly lower than that of New Zealand and Spain, slightly higher than that of Portugal and Greece and at the level of Czech Republic that I consider barely in the developed zone.
Here are my top 10 picks with their per-capita incomes [PPP] in parentheses.
1.Oman ($40,000) - In GDP terms this is already well ahead of most of Europe. Way higher incomes than Japan, New Zealand and UK. However, its infrastructure, education and economic diversity have to still move up to be considered developed.
2.Chile ($23,000) - the country is a powerhouse in South America and going in the right direction. At its current growth, it would overtake Spain in a decade.
3.Hungary ($25,000) - Still well below the cut-off rate, but among the healthier economies in the region.
4.Poland ($25,000) - Same as that of Hungary. EU membership helps.
5.Malaysia ($25,000) - The most advanced economy in South East Asia is the most growing among this list. Its economy is balanced with strengths in both commodities and manufacturing. No major external threats either.
6.Mauritius ($18,500) - The healthiest of African economies is replicating what Singapore did a generation ago. As big Asian and African economies grow, Mauritius could grow further as a trading & finance center.
7.Mexico (steel, car manufacturers and agricultural)
8.Bahrain (oil)
9.Turkey
10.Botswana
11.Gabon (oil)
定义一个发达国家有很多方法。我将使用国际货币基金组织的发达国家名单。这些不在名单上的国家将来可能会加入其中。按照购买力平价计算，我将把人均gdp 3万美元作为一个发达国家的最低标准。这个数字略低于新西兰和西班牙，略高于葡萄牙和希腊，也略高于我认为勉强属于发达地区的捷克共和国。以下是我挑选的前10位，括号里是他们的人均收入(PPP)。
1.阿曼(4万美元)——以国内生产总值(GDP)计算，这已经远远领先于大多数欧洲国家。远高于日本、新西兰和英国。然而，它的基础设施、教育和经济多样性仍有待提高，之后才能被视为发达国家。
2.智利(23,000美元)——这个国家是南美的一个强国，正朝着正确的方向前进。以目前的增长速度，智利将在10年内超过西班牙。
3.匈牙利(2.5万美元)——仍远低于最低标准，但属于该地区较为健康的经济体。
4.波兰($25 000)- -同匈牙利一样。加入欧盟对其有所帮助。
5.马来西亚(2.5万美元)——东南亚最发达的经济体，是榜单中增长最快的。其经济由大宗商品和制造业来平衡优势。也没有重大的外部威胁。
6.毛里求斯(18500美元)——非洲最健康的经济体，正在复制新加坡上一代的做法。随着亚非经济大国的发展，毛里求斯作为贸易和金融中心的地位将进一步提高。
7.墨西哥(钢铁、汽车制造商和农业)
8.巴林(石油)
9.土耳其
10. 博茨瓦纳（非洲中南部国家）
11.加蓬（非洲中西部国家，石油）
Jesse Birchfield（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
There are many ways to define a developed country. I will use IMF''''s advanced countries list. Page on imf.org These countries that are not in the list are likely to enter in the future. I will take a GDP-per-capita of $30,000 in PPP terms as the minimum bar for a developed nation. That is slightly lower than that of New Zealand and Spain, slightly higher than that of Portugal and Greece and at the level of Czech Republic that I consider barely in the developed zone.
Here are my top 10 picks with their per-capita incomes [PPP] in parentheses.
1.Oman ($40,000) - In GDP terms this is already well ahead of most of Europe. Way higher incomes than Japan, New Zealand and UK. However, its infrastructure, education and economic diversity have to still move up to be considered developed.
2.Chile ($23,000) - the country is a powerhouse in South America and going in the right direction. At its current growth, it would overtake Spain in a decade.
3.Hungary ($25,000) - Still well below the cut-off rate, but among the healthier economies in the region.
4.Poland ($25,000) - Same as that of Hungary. EU membership helps.
5.Malaysia ($25,000) - The most advanced economy in South East Asia is the most growing among this list. Its economy is balanced with strengths in both commodities and manufacturing. No major external threats either.
6.Mauritius ($18,500) - The healthiest of African economies is replicating what Singapore did a generation ago. As big Asian and African economies grow, Mauritius could grow further as a trading & finance center.
7.Mexico (steel, car manufacturers and agricultural)
8.Bahrain (oil)
9.Turkey
10.Botswana
11.Gabon (oil)
定义一个发达国家有很多方法。我将使用国际货币基金组织的发达国家名单。这些不在名单上的国家将来可能会加入其中。按照购买力平价计算，我将把人均gdp 3万美元作为一个发达国家的最低标准。这个数字略低于新西兰和西班牙，略高于葡萄牙和希腊，也略高于我认为勉强属于发达地区的捷克共和国。以下是我挑选的前10位，括号里是他们的人均收入(PPP)。
1.阿曼(4万美元)——以国内生产总值(GDP)计算，这已经远远领先于大多数欧洲国家。远高于日本、新西兰和英国。然而，它的基础设施、教育和经济多样性仍有待提高，之后才能被视为发达国家。
2.智利(23,000美元)——这个国家是南美的一个强国，正朝着正确的方向前进。以目前的增长速度，智利将在10年内超过西班牙。
3.匈牙利(2.5万美元)——仍远低于最低标准，但属于该地区较为健康的经济体。
4.波兰($25 000)- -同匈牙利一样。加入欧盟对其有所帮助。
5.马来西亚(2.5万美元)——东南亚最发达的经济体，是榜单中增长最快的。其经济由大宗商品和制造业来平衡优势。也没有重大的外部威胁。
6.毛里求斯(18500美元)——非洲最健康的经济体，正在复制新加坡上一代的做法。随着亚非经济大国的发展，毛里求斯作为贸易和金融中心的地位将进一步提高。
7.墨西哥(钢铁、汽车制造商和农业)
8.巴林(石油)
9.土耳其
10. 博茨瓦纳（非洲中南部国家）
11.加蓬（非洲中西部国家，石油）
Jesse Birchfield（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
One thing surprised me: is Poland not considered a developed country now?
有个事情震惊到我了：波兰现在并不被认为是发达国家吗？
Balaji Viswanathan (?????? ??????????)（回复Jesse Birchfield）
有个事情震惊到我了：波兰现在并不被认为是发达国家吗？
Balaji Viswanathan (?????? ??????????)（回复Jesse Birchfield）
Not yet. Most of eastern Europe is considered in middle income.
还不是。大多数东欧国家被认为是中等收入国家。
Guru Prasad Iyer（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
还不是。大多数东欧国家被认为是中等收入国家。
Guru Prasad Iyer（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
I highly doubt Malaysia has any chance in the near future. Until now, its economy is good. But, it may take a bad shape once the fundamentalist government takes shape. Also, most of the rich in Malaysia like Ananthakrishnan, fernandes, etc. are non-Malays. If the Najib government loses then it will be grave danger for Malaysia and it may bring Malaysia in a downward path. Hope, Malaysian people keeps its fundamentalist opposition party out of power to continue this growth.
我非常怀疑马来西亚在不久的将来是否有任何机会。到目前为止，它的经济状况良好。但是，一旦原教旨主义政府成形，它可能会变得很糟糕。此外，马来西亚大部分富人，如Ananthakrishnan、fernandes等都是非马来人。如果纳吉布政府输了，那对马来西亚来说将是严重的危险，可能会把马来西亚带向下坡路。希望马来西亚人民能让他们的原教旨主义反对党下台，继续保持这种增长。
Pavan Tulsija（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
我非常怀疑马来西亚在不久的将来是否有任何机会。到目前为止，它的经济状况良好。但是，一旦原教旨主义政府成形，它可能会变得很糟糕。此外，马来西亚大部分富人，如Ananthakrishnan、fernandes等都是非马来人。如果纳吉布政府输了，那对马来西亚来说将是严重的危险，可能会把马来西亚带向下坡路。希望马来西亚人民能让他们的原教旨主义反对党下台，继续保持这种增长。
Pavan Tulsija（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Shocked to see Botswana in that list.
But Oman I seriously doubt. Except Muscat and Salalah, the country is hardly developed.Education, Quality of media, foreign investment are all their worst. I think Per capita Income shouldn''''t be the only factor.
看到博茨瓦纳出现在名单上，我很震惊。但是对于阿曼我很怀疑，除了马斯喀特和萨拉拉，这个国家几乎不发达。教育、媒体质量、外国投资都是最糟糕的。我认为人均收入不应该是唯一的因素。
Anand Amirtharaj（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
But Oman I seriously doubt. Except Muscat and Salalah, the country is hardly developed.Education, Quality of media, foreign investment are all their worst. I think Per capita Income shouldn''''t be the only factor.
看到博茨瓦纳出现在名单上，我很震惊。但是对于阿曼我很怀疑，除了马斯喀特和萨拉拉，这个国家几乎不发达。教育、媒体质量、外国投资都是最糟糕的。我认为人均收入不应该是唯一的因素。
Anand Amirtharaj（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
For instance Equatorial Guinea''''s per-capita-GDP (PPP) is $36,785 which is higher than New zealand Italy, South Korea, Greece etc. and well above $30000 mark. In terms of HDI they are in 138th place. According to world bank, 76% of the countries Population living below the national poverty line. Do you think it a developed Nation?
例如，赤道几内亚的人均gdp (PPP)是36785美元，高于新西兰、意大利、韩国、希腊等国，远远高于30000美元。就人类发展指数而言，他们排在第138位。根据世界银行的数据，76%的国家人口生活在国家贫困线以下。你认为它是一个发达国家吗?
Sanjeev Mishra（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
例如，赤道几内亚的人均gdp (PPP)是36785美元，高于新西兰、意大利、韩国、希腊等国，远远高于30000美元。就人类发展指数而言，他们排在第138位。根据世界银行的数据，76%的国家人口生活在国家贫困线以下。你认为它是一个发达国家吗?
Sanjeev Mishra（回复Balaji Viswanathan）
India would take half a century more I guess to become a developed economy.
我猜印度要再花半个世纪才能成为发达经济体。
Abhishek Kaps（回复Sanjeev Mishra）
我猜印度要再花半个世纪才能成为发达经济体。
Abhishek Kaps（回复Sanjeev Mishra）
India’s not going to be a developed country, given the current constraints. With a projected 1.7 billion people in 2050, a $30k per capita GDP implies an economy of 51 trillion. That’s a couple of US’ in terms of increased energy usage, which the globe is unlikely to support - unless some last-minute miracle in energy tech occurs. Anyway, we’re probably going to get crowded out by China in regards to traditional energy sources.
Beyond that, it’s kind of hard to imagine what kind of economic activity could provide this kind of growth. We’re a couple of decades too late to take advantage of the western consumer credit booms for manufacturing, and while robotics is unlikely to replace too many people in the short term, in the long term it’s going to wreck having on all sorts of jobs involving physical labour, and even more specialised functions.
Additionally, if we take the govt. growth rates at face value, we still need to grow around 7–8% for 45–50 years to reach 51 trillion. No country has done that, yet.
鉴于目前的限制，印度不会成为一个发达国家。预计2050年印度将有17亿人，人均GDP 3万美元意味着经济规模将达到51万亿美元。就能源使用量的增长而言，这是美国的2倍，而全球不太可能支撑得起——除非能源技术在最后一刻出现奇迹。无论如何，在传统能源方面，我们可能会被中国挤出去。
除此之外，很难想象什么样的经济活动能够提供这样的增长。我们几十年来不及利用西方消费信贷繁荣的制造业,而机器人在短期内不太可能取代太多的人,但从长远来看它会破坏对各种涉及体力劳动的工作,甚至是更专业的功能。
此外，如果我们仅从表面上看政府的增长率，我们仍然需要在45-50年的时间里保持7% - 8%的增长，才能达到51万亿美元。迄今为止，还没有一个国家能做到。
Beyond that, it’s kind of hard to imagine what kind of economic activity could provide this kind of growth. We’re a couple of decades too late to take advantage of the western consumer credit booms for manufacturing, and while robotics is unlikely to replace too many people in the short term, in the long term it’s going to wreck having on all sorts of jobs involving physical labour, and even more specialised functions.
Additionally, if we take the govt. growth rates at face value, we still need to grow around 7–8% for 45–50 years to reach 51 trillion. No country has done that, yet.
鉴于目前的限制，印度不会成为一个发达国家。预计2050年印度将有17亿人，人均GDP 3万美元意味着经济规模将达到51万亿美元。就能源使用量的增长而言，这是美国的2倍，而全球不太可能支撑得起——除非能源技术在最后一刻出现奇迹。无论如何，在传统能源方面，我们可能会被中国挤出去。
除此之外，很难想象什么样的经济活动能够提供这样的增长。我们几十年来不及利用西方消费信贷繁荣的制造业,而机器人在短期内不太可能取代太多的人,但从长远来看它会破坏对各种涉及体力劳动的工作,甚至是更专业的功能。
此外，如果我们仅从表面上看政府的增长率，我们仍然需要在45-50年的时间里保持7% - 8%的增长，才能达到51万亿美元。迄今为止，还没有一个国家能做到。
Drac Smith, M.A. Masters in Psychology & I/O Psychology (2017)
Brazil if it can shake the corruption and Socialism.
India if it can shake the corruption. That is the biggest issue holding India back right now. The other issues is the education system. If India were to adopt English as an official language it’d be a huge benefit for them but isn’t essential to their becoming a developed nation. India is on the verge of this right now. However huge elements of it’s population still contend with third world living conditions.
Vietnam has the potential if it got away from Socialism.
Columbia has potential. Corruption is it’s biggest obstacle.
Venezuela if it can shake Socialism and corruption could rapidly rebuild from the disaster that it’s become. It’d take major foreign investments to right that ship and those won’t come if nothing is done about the corruption. It’d be a waste of money while the Socialism still lingers..
The UE might be tiny but they are really developing an economy and bringing their people out of the dark ages and poverty. Perhaps the only oil nation to spend it’s money wisely.
Poland is slowly recovering from Communism and is on the verge of being a first world nation and both an economic and military power.
巴西吧，如果巴西能摆脱腐败和社会主义。
还有印度，如果印度能摆脱腐败。腐败是目前阻碍印度发展的最大问题。另一个问题是教育系统。如果印度采用英语作为官方语言，这对他们来说将有巨大的好处，对他们成为发达国家是必不可少的。印度现在正处在这个关键点。然而，其人口中的很大一部分仍在与第三世界的生活条件作斗争。
如果越南脱离社会主义，它就有潜力。
哥伦比亚有潜力。腐败是最大的障碍。
如果委内瑞拉能撼动社会主义，腐败就能迅速从灾难中重建。需要大量的外国投资来修复委内瑞拉这艘船，如果不采取措施解决腐败问题，这些投资就不会到来。社会主义还在苟延残喘，这是在浪费钱。
阿联酋可能很小，但他们确实在发展经济，让他们的人民走出黑暗时代和贫困。或许是唯一一个花钱明智的石油国家。
波兰正缓慢地复苏，即将成为第一世界的大国，同时也是一个经济和军事强国。
Brazil if it can shake the corruption and Socialism.
India if it can shake the corruption. That is the biggest issue holding India back right now. The other issues is the education system. If India were to adopt English as an official language it’d be a huge benefit for them but isn’t essential to their becoming a developed nation. India is on the verge of this right now. However huge elements of it’s population still contend with third world living conditions.
Vietnam has the potential if it got away from Socialism.
Columbia has potential. Corruption is it’s biggest obstacle.
Venezuela if it can shake Socialism and corruption could rapidly rebuild from the disaster that it’s become. It’d take major foreign investments to right that ship and those won’t come if nothing is done about the corruption. It’d be a waste of money while the Socialism still lingers..
The UE might be tiny but they are really developing an economy and bringing their people out of the dark ages and poverty. Perhaps the only oil nation to spend it’s money wisely.
Poland is slowly recovering from Communism and is on the verge of being a first world nation and both an economic and military power.
巴西吧，如果巴西能摆脱腐败和社会主义。
还有印度，如果印度能摆脱腐败。腐败是目前阻碍印度发展的最大问题。另一个问题是教育系统。如果印度采用英语作为官方语言，这对他们来说将有巨大的好处，对他们成为发达国家是必不可少的。印度现在正处在这个关键点。然而，其人口中的很大一部分仍在与第三世界的生活条件作斗争。
如果越南脱离社会主义，它就有潜力。
哥伦比亚有潜力。腐败是最大的障碍。
如果委内瑞拉能撼动社会主义，腐败就能迅速从灾难中重建。需要大量的外国投资来修复委内瑞拉这艘船，如果不采取措施解决腐败问题，这些投资就不会到来。社会主义还在苟延残喘，这是在浪费钱。
阿联酋可能很小，但他们确实在发展经济，让他们的人民走出黑暗时代和贫困。或许是唯一一个花钱明智的石油国家。
波兰正缓慢地复苏，即将成为第一世界的大国，同时也是一个经济和军事强国。
Deanna Harvey, studied Accounting at Florida Atlantic University
It depends on what you mean by “soon”.
I’d say within the next 20–30 years, China and India will be much, much more developed than they are now, but since these countries are comprised of vast amounts of land compared to many others, I’d give it another 40–50 years (give or take a few years) before these major economies are completely developed.
Within the next 20–30 years, these are my predictions:
Southeast asia: Malaysia (will become fully developed), Indonesia (will become much more developed, although not fully), Thailand/Philippines (same as indonesia)
Central asia: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will be much more developed but still have some work to do.
Latin America: Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. All will make noticeable gains although I think Brazil and Colombia will still have more development to fulfill within 20–30 years while Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are almost certain to be fully developed, especially Chile.
Middle east: Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Oman and UAE.
(Especially Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and UAE)
这取决于你所说的“很快”是什么意思。
我想说，在未来20-30年里，中国和印度将比现在发达得多，但由于这俩国家与其他国家相比幅员太辽阔，在这两个主要经济体完全发达之前，我认为还需要40-50年的时间。
以下是我对未来20-30年的预测:
东南亚:马来西亚(将会完全发展)，印度尼西亚(将会更发达，虽然不是完全发展)，泰国/菲律宾(和印度尼西亚一样)，中亚:哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦将会更发达，但仍有一些工作要做。
拉丁美洲:巴西、乌拉圭、阿根廷、智利和哥伦比亚。尽管我认为巴西和哥伦比亚在20-30年内仍有更多的发展需要完成，而阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭几乎肯定会得到充分发展，特别是智利。
中东:卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、阿曼和阿联酋。(特别是沙特阿拉伯、土耳其、卡塔尔、阿曼和阿联酋)。
It depends on what you mean by “soon”.
I’d say within the next 20–30 years, China and India will be much, much more developed than they are now, but since these countries are comprised of vast amounts of land compared to many others, I’d give it another 40–50 years (give or take a few years) before these major economies are completely developed.
Within the next 20–30 years, these are my predictions:
Southeast asia: Malaysia (will become fully developed), Indonesia (will become much more developed, although not fully), Thailand/Philippines (same as indonesia)
Central asia: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will be much more developed but still have some work to do.
Latin America: Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. All will make noticeable gains although I think Brazil and Colombia will still have more development to fulfill within 20–30 years while Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are almost certain to be fully developed, especially Chile.
Middle east: Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Oman and UAE.
(Especially Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and UAE)
这取决于你所说的“很快”是什么意思。
我想说，在未来20-30年里，中国和印度将比现在发达得多，但由于这俩国家与其他国家相比幅员太辽阔，在这两个主要经济体完全发达之前，我认为还需要40-50年的时间。
以下是我对未来20-30年的预测:
东南亚:马来西亚(将会完全发展)，印度尼西亚(将会更发达，虽然不是完全发展)，泰国/菲律宾(和印度尼西亚一样)，中亚:哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦将会更发达，但仍有一些工作要做。
拉丁美洲:巴西、乌拉圭、阿根廷、智利和哥伦比亚。尽管我认为巴西和哥伦比亚在20-30年内仍有更多的发展需要完成，而阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭几乎肯定会得到充分发展，特别是智利。
中东:卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、阿曼和阿联酋。(特别是沙特阿拉伯、土耳其、卡塔尔、阿曼和阿联酋)。
Stefan Ong, Corporate Slave at Human Resources
''''Second'''' World countries such as Hungary, Slovakia Poland and Romania have the best chance to become developed countries in the future. They are already part of the EU and cheaper alternative for European companies setting up factories without having to invest in a less familiar setting such as Indonesia and Thailand.
These countries already have good infrastructure and already in the European unx. If these countries have the same GDP per capita with more developed countries such as France and Germany. I think that they are already a developed country by default.
“第二”世界国家，如匈牙利、斯洛伐克、波兰和罗马尼亚，未来最有可能成为发达国家。它们已经是欧盟的一部分，对于那些无需投资于印尼和泰国等不太熟悉的地方就能建厂的欧洲企业来说，它们是更便宜的选择。这些国家已经有了良好的基础设施，而且已经加入了欧盟。如果这些国家的人均GDP与法国和德国等发达国家相同。我认为他们已经默认是发达国家了。
''''Second'''' World countries such as Hungary, Slovakia Poland and Romania have the best chance to become developed countries in the future. They are already part of the EU and cheaper alternative for European companies setting up factories without having to invest in a less familiar setting such as Indonesia and Thailand.
These countries already have good infrastructure and already in the European unx. If these countries have the same GDP per capita with more developed countries such as France and Germany. I think that they are already a developed country by default.
“第二”世界国家，如匈牙利、斯洛伐克、波兰和罗马尼亚，未来最有可能成为发达国家。它们已经是欧盟的一部分，对于那些无需投资于印尼和泰国等不太熟悉的地方就能建厂的欧洲企业来说，它们是更便宜的选择。这些国家已经有了良好的基础设施，而且已经加入了欧盟。如果这些国家的人均GDP与法国和德国等发达国家相同。我认为他们已经默认是发达国家了。
Randy McDonald, A fan of cities, islands, migration and Trek and more
In terms of per capita income, while excluding South Korea and Taiwan as developed countries if newly developed ones?
I''''d suggest that Chile, Argentina and Uruguay in Latin America, most of the new EU member-states in central Europe along with Turkey, and Malaysia in East Asia are most likely to join the ranks of high-income countries. Other countries will continue to make gains, but overall they aren''''t close enough to the boundary.
I would suggest, though, that a concentration on countries overlooks the interesting things happening at the subnational level. In Brazil and Mexico, two countries which are poorer overall than the frontrunners in Latin America, many of their component states are substantially richer than the average. Much of southern Brazil is as prosperous as adjacent areas of Argentina, for instance. If there are more people in this high-income region of southern Brazil than in all Argentina, how are they to be accounted for?
就人均收入而言，能将南韩和台湾（地区）排除在外，但新兴发达经济体呢？
我认为，拉丁美洲的智利、阿根廷和乌拉圭、中欧的大多数欧盟新成员国以及土耳其和东亚的马来西亚最有可能加入高收入国家行列。其他国家将继续取得进展，但总体而言，它们离门槛还不够近。
然而，我认为，把注意力集中在国家上，又忽略了在次国家一级发生的有趣的事情。巴西和墨西哥这两个国家总体上比拉丁美洲的领跑者更穷，但它们的许多组成州却比平均水平富裕得多。例如，巴西南部的大部分地区与阿根廷毗邻地区一样繁荣。如果巴西南部这个高收入地区的人口比整个阿根廷的人口还要多，那他们又该如何看待呢?
David Chevance（回复Randy McDonald）
In terms of per capita income, while excluding South Korea and Taiwan as developed countries if newly developed ones?
I''''d suggest that Chile, Argentina and Uruguay in Latin America, most of the new EU member-states in central Europe along with Turkey, and Malaysia in East Asia are most likely to join the ranks of high-income countries. Other countries will continue to make gains, but overall they aren''''t close enough to the boundary.
I would suggest, though, that a concentration on countries overlooks the interesting things happening at the subnational level. In Brazil and Mexico, two countries which are poorer overall than the frontrunners in Latin America, many of their component states are substantially richer than the average. Much of southern Brazil is as prosperous as adjacent areas of Argentina, for instance. If there are more people in this high-income region of southern Brazil than in all Argentina, how are they to be accounted for?
就人均收入而言，能将南韩和台湾（地区）排除在外，但新兴发达经济体呢？
我认为，拉丁美洲的智利、阿根廷和乌拉圭、中欧的大多数欧盟新成员国以及土耳其和东亚的马来西亚最有可能加入高收入国家行列。其他国家将继续取得进展，但总体而言，它们离门槛还不够近。
然而，我认为，把注意力集中在国家上，又忽略了在次国家一级发生的有趣的事情。巴西和墨西哥这两个国家总体上比拉丁美洲的领跑者更穷，但它们的许多组成州却比平均水平富裕得多。例如，巴西南部的大部分地区与阿根廷毗邻地区一样繁荣。如果巴西南部这个高收入地区的人口比整个阿根廷的人口还要多，那他们又该如何看待呢?
David Chevance（回复Randy McDonald）
You''''re quite right that Argentina, Chile and Uruguay (and presumably Southern Brazil) are all in the same league at the moment. I was really surprised by this as I had a perception that Chile was well ahead of the others.
你说得很对，目前阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭(可能还有巴西南部)目前都算是在一个联盟里。我真的很惊讶，因为我觉得智利遥遥领先于其他国家。
Ricardo Luis Brinconi Pulido（回复David Chevance）
你说得很对，目前阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭(可能还有巴西南部)目前都算是在一个联盟里。我真的很惊讶，因为我觉得智利遥遥领先于其他国家。
Ricardo Luis Brinconi Pulido（回复David Chevance）
Unfortunately, Argentina is not so prone to make this transtion now. Although it has a good GDP per capita, it is passing through a very serious economic turmoil due to the dsastrous Kirchner administration. Industries are closing (some of them going to Brazil), people are loosing their jobs, and inflation is out of control....
不幸的是，阿根廷现在还不太可能发生这种转变。尽管阿根廷的人均国内生产总值(GDP)不错，但由于不稳定的基什内尔(Kirchner)政府，阿根廷正在经历一场非常严重的经济动荡。工业正在关闭(其中一些去了巴西)，人们失去了工作，通货膨胀失去了控制……
Jorge Ortiz（回复Randy McDonald）
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
不幸的是，阿根廷现在还不太可能发生这种转变。尽管阿根廷的人均国内生产总值(GDP)不错，但由于不稳定的基什内尔(Kirchner)政府，阿根廷正在经历一场非常严重的经济动荡。工业正在关闭(其中一些去了巴西)，人们失去了工作，通货膨胀失去了控制……
Jorge Ortiz（回复Randy McDonald）
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Very good observation. Similarly, the Central regions of Mexico, as well as some Northern States such as Nuevo Leon, Chihuahua, Sonora, etc. seem to be performing quite well.
很好的观察。同样，墨西哥中部地区以及一些北部州，如新莱昂州、奇瓦瓦州、索诺拉州等，似乎表现得相当不错。
Firdaus Ismail（回复Randy McDonald）
很好的观察。同样，墨西哥中部地区以及一些北部州，如新莱昂州、奇瓦瓦州、索诺拉州等，似乎表现得相当不错。
Firdaus Ismail（回复Randy McDonald）
Malaysia is in South East Asia. East Asia is for the likes of Japan Korea China etc
马来西亚位于东南亚。东亚是日本、韩国和中国等这样的国家。
Ezeq Deregibus（回复Randy McDonald）
马来西亚位于东南亚。东亚是日本、韩国和中国等这样的国家。
Ezeq Deregibus（回复Randy McDonald）
You cannot make those regional cuts because if you do so, for example, you can notice that there are more rich people in Argentina than in all of Luxembourg. Or you can also notice that at least statistically, the city of Buenos Aires is as developed as Belgium and some cities in Patagonia have almost scandinavian life standards. But you have to measure the whole thing, because economy and society are interconnected. Would the southern states of Brazil be as rich without the contribution of the very poor states of the north?
你不能做那些地区削减，因为如果你这样做，例如，你可以注意到阿根廷的富人比整个卢森堡的富人都多。或者你也可以注意到，至少从数据上看，布宜诺斯艾利斯和比利时一样发达，巴塔哥尼亚的一些城市几乎有斯堪的纳维亚人的生活标准。但是你必须衡量整个事情，因为经济和社会是相互联系的。如果没有北方那些非常贫穷的州的贡献，巴西南部各州还会如此富裕吗?
Leonardo Mignani Goes（回复Randy McDonald）
你不能做那些地区削减，因为如果你这样做，例如，你可以注意到阿根廷的富人比整个卢森堡的富人都多。或者你也可以注意到，至少从数据上看，布宜诺斯艾利斯和比利时一样发达，巴塔哥尼亚的一些城市几乎有斯堪的纳维亚人的生活标准。但是你必须衡量整个事情，因为经济和社会是相互联系的。如果没有北方那些非常贫穷的州的贡献，巴西南部各州还会如此富裕吗?
Leonardo Mignani Goes（回复Randy McDonald）
In economy Brazil trumps all the countries easily... the problem is the wealth distribution, infrastructure, education and others... But poorer overall is just wrong. The 3 countries you posted does not have the momentum and the economy to be considered developed. Chile barely have any industry and only export wine, salmon and copper. Argentina is in deep economic recession for years already. Uruguay have some primary industry but nowhere close to a EU small country. And your view about South Brazil is also exaggerated, it does have SOME quality over other regions, but in industrial term still lags waaaay too much compared to the Southeast region... (source: I am an Brazilian)
在经济上，巴西轻而易举地胜过所有国家。问题在于财富分配、基础设施、教育等……但总体上更穷是不对的。你说的3个国家没有发展的势头和经济。智利几乎没有任何工业，只出口葡萄酒、三文鱼和铜。阿根廷已经深陷经济衰退多年。乌拉圭有一些初级产业，但离欧盟小国还很远。你对巴西南部的看法也被夸大了，它确实比其他地区有一些优势，但在工业方面，与东南部地区相比仍然落后太多。(利益相关:我是巴西人)
在经济上，巴西轻而易举地胜过所有国家。问题在于财富分配、基础设施、教育等……但总体上更穷是不对的。你说的3个国家没有发展的势头和经济。智利几乎没有任何工业，只出口葡萄酒、三文鱼和铜。阿根廷已经深陷经济衰退多年。乌拉圭有一些初级产业，但离欧盟小国还很远。你对巴西南部的看法也被夸大了，它确实比其他地区有一些优势，但在工业方面，与东南部地区相比仍然落后太多。(利益相关:我是巴西人)
Akintunde Kehinde Paul, lived in Ikare-Akoko, Ondo, Nigeria
The first on the list should be India. They don''''t just have this huge population but also huge talents. They are the most successful ethnic group in the US. When their economy grows bigger- I mean the GDP and is able retain these talents to add value to the economy, it will IMO surpass China and even USA ro become the most powerful country on the planet.
The second on my list will be Nigeria, my beloved country. A country with close to 200 million people within her border and even a staggering 19million people in diaspora. They don''''t just have this population, they have the talents. They are as passionate as the Indians about Education and the spirit among Nigerians is about being successful. They are the most successful black ethnic groups. Also, they will be very successful in Sports esp Football. Although they are still developing as a people as there is a high illiteracy rate and also, they are battling with poor infrastructure and bad leadership.
These two countries I know for sure, have the potential to one day be a Superpower.
首先应该是印度。他们不仅人口众多，而且人才济济。他们是美国最成功的族裔。当他们的经济发展壮大——我指的是国内生产总值，并能够留住这些人才来增加经济价值，它将超过中国甚至美国成为世界上最强大的国家。第二个是尼日利亚，我深爱的国家。这个国家有近2亿人口，甚至还有令人吃惊的1900万移民。他们不只是拥有这样的人口，他们还有天赋。他们和印度人一样对教育充满热情，尼日利亚人的精神是追求成功。他们是最成功的黑人族群。同时，他们也会在运动，特别是足球方面取得成功。虽然他们作为一个民族仍然在发展，因为有很高的文盲率，而且，他们正在与落后的基础设施和糟糕的领导斗争。我确信这两个国家有一天会成为超级大国。
The first on the list should be India. They don''''t just have this huge population but also huge talents. They are the most successful ethnic group in the US. When their economy grows bigger- I mean the GDP and is able retain these talents to add value to the economy, it will IMO surpass China and even USA ro become the most powerful country on the planet.
The second on my list will be Nigeria, my beloved country. A country with close to 200 million people within her border and even a staggering 19million people in diaspora. They don''''t just have this population, they have the talents. They are as passionate as the Indians about Education and the spirit among Nigerians is about being successful. They are the most successful black ethnic groups. Also, they will be very successful in Sports esp Football. Although they are still developing as a people as there is a high illiteracy rate and also, they are battling with poor infrastructure and bad leadership.
These two countries I know for sure, have the potential to one day be a Superpower.
首先应该是印度。他们不仅人口众多，而且人才济济。他们是美国最成功的族裔。当他们的经济发展壮大——我指的是国内生产总值，并能够留住这些人才来增加经济价值，它将超过中国甚至美国成为世界上最强大的国家。第二个是尼日利亚，我深爱的国家。这个国家有近2亿人口，甚至还有令人吃惊的1900万移民。他们不只是拥有这样的人口，他们还有天赋。他们和印度人一样对教育充满热情，尼日利亚人的精神是追求成功。他们是最成功的黑人族群。同时，他们也会在运动，特别是足球方面取得成功。虽然他们作为一个民族仍然在发展，因为有很高的文盲率，而且，他们正在与落后的基础设施和糟糕的领导斗争。我确信这两个国家有一天会成为超级大国。
Jamie Oglethorpe, Interested in how countries became developed
In the next few decades, the most likely candidates are:
Latin America:
Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, and Mexico
Europe:
Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania
Asia:
Sri Lanka, Malasia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
There is no HDI index calculated for China. Its development status is kept back by the inequality between the main cities to the east, and the rural areas.
在未来的几十年里，最有可能的候选国家是:
拉丁美洲:阿根廷、乌拉圭、巴西、墨西哥
欧洲:克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚、塞尔维亚、保加利亚、罗马尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛
亚洲:斯里兰卡、马拉西亚、哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆。
中国没有计算出HDI指数。东部主要城市和农村之间的不平等阻碍了它的发展。
In the next few decades, the most likely candidates are:
Latin America:
Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, and Mexico
Europe:
Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania
Asia:
Sri Lanka, Malasia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
There is no HDI index calculated for China. Its development status is kept back by the inequality between the main cities to the east, and the rural areas.
在未来的几十年里，最有可能的候选国家是:
拉丁美洲:阿根廷、乌拉圭、巴西、墨西哥
欧洲:克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚、塞尔维亚、保加利亚、罗马尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛
亚洲:斯里兰卡、马拉西亚、哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆。
中国没有计算出HDI指数。东部主要城市和农村之间的不平等阻碍了它的发展。
Baqir Rizvi
Tanzania is going to be one of the fastest developing nation soon.
It already has the unique advantage of being the only sizeable country in Africa which has not suffered any political upheavals since independence. All transfer of power has been after free and fair elections.
Keeping the stable political climate in mind, Tanzania has recently in past five years discovered oil, gas and uranium.
This is in addition to the booming tourism industry which is thanks to Zanzibar, Savannahs and Mt. Kilimanjaro.
坦桑尼亚将很快成为发展最快的国家之一。它已经具有独特的优势，即它是非洲唯一规模庞大的国家，自独立以来没有遭受任何政治动乱。所有权力的移交都是在自由公正的选举之后进行的。
保持稳定的政治环境的同时，坦桑尼亚在过去五年里还发现了石油、天然气和铀。此外，感谢桑给巴尔、大草原和乞力马扎罗山，坦桑尼亚旅游业也蓬勃发展。
Tanzania is going to be one of the fastest developing nation soon.
It already has the unique advantage of being the only sizeable country in Africa which has not suffered any political upheavals since independence. All transfer of power has been after free and fair elections.
Keeping the stable political climate in mind, Tanzania has recently in past five years discovered oil, gas and uranium.
This is in addition to the booming tourism industry which is thanks to Zanzibar, Savannahs and Mt. Kilimanjaro.
坦桑尼亚将很快成为发展最快的国家之一。它已经具有独特的优势，即它是非洲唯一规模庞大的国家，自独立以来没有遭受任何政治动乱。所有权力的移交都是在自由公正的选举之后进行的。
保持稳定的政治环境的同时，坦桑尼亚在过去五年里还发现了石油、天然气和铀。此外，感谢桑给巴尔、大草原和乞力马扎罗山，坦桑尼亚旅游业也蓬勃发展。
Brian Collins, I took Microeconomics and Macroeconomics
Going off the HDI, most formerly-communist countries that joined the EU are developed or close to being developed. In the 1990s they were very poor.
These include Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary.
Ireland is pretty much considered a developed country by everyone now, but as late as the 1990s it was a lot poorer than most mainland Western European countries.
Thailand and Malaysia are also considered to be close to developed.
Aside from that, Chile and Argentina are close to being developed, or are developed by some measurements.
Venezuela was close to being developed for a few years after 2010, but since then, it has collapsed and is now poorer than Colombia.
除人类发展指数外，大多数加入欧盟的前XX主义国家都是发达国家或接近发达国家。在20世纪90年代，他们非常贫穷。这些国家包括波兰、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克、匈牙利。
如今，爱尔兰几乎被所有人视为一个发达国家，但直到上世纪90年代，它还比大多数西欧大陆国家穷得多。
泰国和马来西亚也被认为接近发达国家。
除此之外，智利和阿根廷已接近开发，或按某些标准衡量已开发。
2010年之后的几年里，委内瑞拉几乎处于开发阶段，但从那以后，它就崩溃了，现在比哥伦比亚还穷。
Going off the HDI, most formerly-communist countries that joined the EU are developed or close to being developed. In the 1990s they were very poor.
These include Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary.
Ireland is pretty much considered a developed country by everyone now, but as late as the 1990s it was a lot poorer than most mainland Western European countries.
Thailand and Malaysia are also considered to be close to developed.
Aside from that, Chile and Argentina are close to being developed, or are developed by some measurements.
Venezuela was close to being developed for a few years after 2010, but since then, it has collapsed and is now poorer than Colombia.
除人类发展指数外，大多数加入欧盟的前XX主义国家都是发达国家或接近发达国家。在20世纪90年代，他们非常贫穷。这些国家包括波兰、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克、匈牙利。
如今，爱尔兰几乎被所有人视为一个发达国家，但直到上世纪90年代，它还比大多数西欧大陆国家穷得多。
泰国和马来西亚也被认为接近发达国家。
除此之外，智利和阿根廷已接近开发，或按某些标准衡量已开发。
2010年之后的几年里，委内瑞拉几乎处于开发阶段，但从那以后，它就崩溃了，现在比哥伦比亚还穷。
Lucas Bandeira, Architect, Urban Planner and Landscape Architect at Autonomous (2018-present)
It is important to realize that the current state of art of development of countries is largely a phenomenon of the XX century.
Why?
Because the way that century unraveled drastically altered the power balance among nations, notoriously removing Europe from the center of the world, putting the United States as the sole superpower, establishing the communism-capitalism dichotomy, witnessing the rise of China and the Asian Tigers, among others. All while mass decolonization happened all across Africa and Asia, the results of which ended either in numerous coup d’etats and dictatorship in these countries or in prolonged civil wars in most cases.
I could continue on arguing how much the XX century changed the world with both world wars and subsequent US-backed European economic revival and authoritarian military dictatorships in South America but I feel that’s a topic for another question.
For a variery of reasons - some described above - in the first half of the XXI century, I envision only the following countries attaining developed status:
Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica and Panama in Latin America
Malaysia in Southeast Asia
China in East Asia
Romania in Europe
And that’s about it.
Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar etc are not included in this list either because they’re light-years behind secularism, democracy and civil liberties, or because they can be too much of a surprise to have any prediction of when they’ll attain developed status. Oil is not enough to develop a nation.
Turkey is another mystery. Whether it will join the developed countries club or further sink in religious fundamentalism is an enigma.
Perhaps no African country will reach developed status in the XXI century, not even Botswana.
This list is only a personal guest and it is limited in data and references. History has a way of always turning things upside down, so maybe we are still to see what will actually happen in the upcoming decades regarding the rise of nations.
必须认识到，各国目前的发展水平在很大程度上是XX世纪导致的一种现象。
为什么？
因为那个世纪彻底改变了国家间的力量平衡，声名狼藉地把欧洲从世界中心移除，把美国竖立为唯一的超级大国，见证了中国和亚洲四小龙等国家的崛起。
与此同时，大规模的去殖民化在整个非洲和亚洲发生，其结果要么在这些国家以无数政变结束，要么大多数情况下以旷日持久的内战结束。
我可以继续讨论XX世纪对世界的改变有多大，包括世界大战、美国支持的欧洲经济复苏，但我觉得这是另一个问题的主题了。
由于各种各样的原因- -其中有些在上述已表明- -在21世纪上半叶，我预计只有下列国家将获得发达国家地位:
1.拉丁美洲的智利、乌拉圭、哥斯达黎加和巴拿马
2.东南亚的马来西亚
3.亚洲东部的中国
4.欧洲的罗马尼亚
仅此而已。
海湾国家如沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、巴林、卡塔尔等不在此名单之列，这要么是因为他们落后于世俗化、民主和公民自由数光年，要么是因为他们太多变数，以至于无法预测他们何时会达到发达国家的地位。石油不足以发展一个国家。
土耳其也是个谜。它将加入发达国家俱乐部，还是会进一步陷入宗教原教旨主义，这是个谜团。
也许在21世纪，没有一个非洲国家能跻身发达国家的行列，甚至博茨瓦纳也不行。
这个名单只是我个人猜测，受数据和引用资料所限。历史总是会把事情搞得天翻地覆，所以也许我们仍然要看看在未来几十年里国家的崛起究竟会发生什么。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It is important to realize that the current state of art of development of countries is largely a phenomenon of the XX century.
Why?
Because the way that century unraveled drastically altered the power balance among nations, notoriously removing Europe from the center of the world, putting the United States as the sole superpower, establishing the communism-capitalism dichotomy, witnessing the rise of China and the Asian Tigers, among others. All while mass decolonization happened all across Africa and Asia, the results of which ended either in numerous coup d’etats and dictatorship in these countries or in prolonged civil wars in most cases.
I could continue on arguing how much the XX century changed the world with both world wars and subsequent US-backed European economic revival and authoritarian military dictatorships in South America but I feel that’s a topic for another question.
For a variery of reasons - some described above - in the first half of the XXI century, I envision only the following countries attaining developed status:
Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica and Panama in Latin America
Malaysia in Southeast Asia
China in East Asia
Romania in Europe
And that’s about it.
Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar etc are not included in this list either because they’re light-years behind secularism, democracy and civil liberties, or because they can be too much of a surprise to have any prediction of when they’ll attain developed status. Oil is not enough to develop a nation.
Turkey is another mystery. Whether it will join the developed countries club or further sink in religious fundamentalism is an enigma.
Perhaps no African country will reach developed status in the XXI century, not even Botswana.
This list is only a personal guest and it is limited in data and references. History has a way of always turning things upside down, so maybe we are still to see what will actually happen in the upcoming decades regarding the rise of nations.
必须认识到，各国目前的发展水平在很大程度上是XX世纪导致的一种现象。
为什么？
因为那个世纪彻底改变了国家间的力量平衡，声名狼藉地把欧洲从世界中心移除，把美国竖立为唯一的超级大国，见证了中国和亚洲四小龙等国家的崛起。
与此同时，大规模的去殖民化在整个非洲和亚洲发生，其结果要么在这些国家以无数政变结束，要么大多数情况下以旷日持久的内战结束。
我可以继续讨论XX世纪对世界的改变有多大，包括世界大战、美国支持的欧洲经济复苏，但我觉得这是另一个问题的主题了。
由于各种各样的原因- -其中有些在上述已表明- -在21世纪上半叶，我预计只有下列国家将获得发达国家地位:
1.拉丁美洲的智利、乌拉圭、哥斯达黎加和巴拿马
2.东南亚的马来西亚
3.亚洲东部的中国
4.欧洲的罗马尼亚
仅此而已。
海湾国家如沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、巴林、卡塔尔等不在此名单之列，这要么是因为他们落后于世俗化、民主和公民自由数光年，要么是因为他们太多变数，以至于无法预测他们何时会达到发达国家的地位。石油不足以发展一个国家。
土耳其也是个谜。它将加入发达国家俱乐部，还是会进一步陷入宗教原教旨主义，这是个谜团。
也许在21世纪，没有一个非洲国家能跻身发达国家的行列，甚至博茨瓦纳也不行。
这个名单只是我个人猜测，受数据和引用资料所限。历史总是会把事情搞得天翻地覆，所以也许我们仍然要看看在未来几十年里国家的崛起究竟会发生什么。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Tom Flores
I can not say which countries will be next be on pure speculation I would say keep an eye on the west coast nations of Africa. They are all working hard to become recognized to become a major player in the world community. A few years a go I was in Ghana Africa and saw great potential in that country! They are starting to improve their infrastructure. Note while this is my opinion opinions are like a certain part of the body everyone has one!
纯粹靠猜测，我不能说哪些国家将是下一个，但我想说，密切关注非洲西海岸国家。他们都在努力成为国际社会公认的主要参与者。几年前，我在非洲的加纳看到了巨大的潜力！他们正在开始改善基础设施。注意，这是我的个人意见，意见就像身体的某个部分，每个人都有一个!
I can not say which countries will be next be on pure speculation I would say keep an eye on the west coast nations of Africa. They are all working hard to become recognized to become a major player in the world community. A few years a go I was in Ghana Africa and saw great potential in that country! They are starting to improve their infrastructure. Note while this is my opinion opinions are like a certain part of the body everyone has one!
纯粹靠猜测，我不能说哪些国家将是下一个，但我想说，密切关注非洲西海岸国家。他们都在努力成为国际社会公认的主要参与者。几年前，我在非洲的加纳看到了巨大的潜力！他们正在开始改善基础设施。注意，这是我的个人意见，意见就像身体的某个部分，每个人都有一个!
Paulo Borges, former Planning at Construction
We can all try to guess and propose a set of countries supported by any set of reasons but taking in account all the factors internal and external that affect development it is almost impossible to guess.
Who would have proposed South Korea 50 years ago?
Almost all of the countries have potential to become developed in the near future, given the right conditions. Of course there are exceptions like Congo, Somalia or Afghanistan that are very unlikely to get out of their current predicament any time soon.
我们都可以尝试猜测，并列出一组由任何理由支持的国家，但考虑到所有影响发展的内部和外部因素，几乎不可能真正猜测准。
50年前谁会猜到今天的韩国?
在适当的条件下，几乎所有这些国家在不久的将来都有发展的潜力。当然，也有像刚果、索马里或阿富汗这样的例外，它们不太可能很快摆脱目前的困境。
We can all try to guess and propose a set of countries supported by any set of reasons but taking in account all the factors internal and external that affect development it is almost impossible to guess.
Who would have proposed South Korea 50 years ago?
Almost all of the countries have potential to become developed in the near future, given the right conditions. Of course there are exceptions like Congo, Somalia or Afghanistan that are very unlikely to get out of their current predicament any time soon.
我们都可以尝试猜测，并列出一组由任何理由支持的国家，但考虑到所有影响发展的内部和外部因素，几乎不可能真正猜测准。
50年前谁会猜到今天的韩国?
在适当的条件下，几乎所有这些国家在不久的将来都有发展的潜力。当然，也有像刚果、索马里或阿富汗这样的例外，它们不太可能很快摆脱目前的困境。
Diana Brancoveanu, Software Architect
Creating a developped country takes centuries.
My money is on India
创造一个发达国家需要几个世纪。我把钱押在印度
Creating a developped country takes centuries.
My money is on India
创造一个发达国家需要几个世纪。我把钱押在印度
Toukyou Masters
China will be developed in terms of infrastructure, but salaries will remain low in terms of USD.
Countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Brunei, Maldives will probably become more developed in then near future, occupying a level slightly below China will lower salaries and infrastructure.
I can see a few Eastern European countries (Estonia for example) becoming as developed as China in the near future, especially with the support of the EU behind them. South America will suffer from political crisis IMO.
中国将在基础设施方面得到发展，但以美元计算的工资仍将保持低位。
像马来西亚，泰国，斯里兰卡，文莱，马尔代夫这样的国家在不久的将来可能会变得更加发达，在薪水和基础建设方面，处于一个略低于中国的水平。
我可以看到一些东欧国家(比如爱沙尼亚)在不久的将来变得和中国一样发达，特别是在欧盟的支持下。在我看来，南美将遭受政治危机。
China will be developed in terms of infrastructure, but salaries will remain low in terms of USD.
Countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Brunei, Maldives will probably become more developed in then near future, occupying a level slightly below China will lower salaries and infrastructure.
I can see a few Eastern European countries (Estonia for example) becoming as developed as China in the near future, especially with the support of the EU behind them. South America will suffer from political crisis IMO.
中国将在基础设施方面得到发展，但以美元计算的工资仍将保持低位。
像马来西亚，泰国，斯里兰卡，文莱，马尔代夫这样的国家在不久的将来可能会变得更加发达，在薪水和基础建设方面，处于一个略低于中国的水平。
我可以看到一些东欧国家(比如爱沙尼亚)在不久的将来变得和中国一样发达，特别是在欧盟的支持下。在我看来，南美将遭受政治危机。
He Shuang, Engineering Designer (2018-present)
I read many answers of this question ，you netizens listed many countries here which you think will become developed countries in the future，but there is no China. Don’t you guys think that the world’s second largest economic entity will become developed？ or you think China has been a developed country？
我看了很多这个问题的答案，你们这些网民列出了很多你们认为将来会成为发达国家的国家，但是没有中国。你们不认为世界第二大经济体会发展起来吗?或者你们认为中国已经是发达国家了?
I read many answers of this question ，you netizens listed many countries here which you think will become developed countries in the future，but there is no China. Don’t you guys think that the world’s second largest economic entity will become developed？ or you think China has been a developed country？
我看了很多这个问题的答案，你们这些网民列出了很多你们认为将来会成为发达国家的国家，但是没有中国。你们不认为世界第二大经济体会发展起来吗?或者你们认为中国已经是发达国家了?
Anonymous
Not many countries. Only a handful that are in that situation of becoming developed. China is of course a miracle. Other examples are Turkey, Malaysia, Bulgaria and Poland.
这种国家不多，只有少数处于这种发展状态的国家。中国当然是个奇迹。其他的例子还有土耳其、马来西亚、保加利亚和波兰。
Not many countries. Only a handful that are in that situation of becoming developed. China is of course a miracle. Other examples are Turkey, Malaysia, Bulgaria and Poland.
这种国家不多，只有少数处于这种发展状态的国家。中国当然是个奇迹。其他的例子还有土耳其、马来西亚、保加利亚和波兰。
Nehal Mahmud Khan, Blogger at Medium
A good answer will comprise the Eastern European countries i.e the countries which were at the Communist Corridor of Europe but those countries are at developed category already to some extent as these countries have somewhat high effect from the European unx. These countries are Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary
Then there are countries in Europe which are not part of European unx but are almost developed or will be developed. These countries are Serbia, Montenegro
Now moving to the other side of the Ural Mountains i.e Asia. This continent has so many countries that are flourishing so quickly but the countries that will be developed in my opinion are China, Philippines,Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Kazakhstan,Iran. I did not mention South Asian countries because my assumption is upto 2050
But between the two continents lie some countries which are known as Transcontinental or somewhat nearby. Among those we have Turkey, Azerbaijan,Georgia and obviously Russia which will be developed in the future
On the other side of the Atlantic we have Uruguay,Chile and Argentina which will be developed in the future
And above the Caribbean sea we have Costa Rica which will be developed in the future
Unfortunately I am not well aware about Africa''''s economical growth in depth and the infrastructure there. Therefore I preferred not to judge
一个好的答案当包括东欧国家。那些曾经是欧洲走廊的国家，但这些国家已经在某种程度上属于发达国家，因为这些国家在欧盟中有较高的影响力。这些国家是拉脱维亚，立陶宛，克罗地亚，爱沙尼亚，匈牙利。还有一些欧洲国家虽然不属于欧盟，但已经或即将发展成为发达国家。这些国家是塞尔维亚和黑山。现在我们来看乌拉尔山脉另一边的亚洲。这个大陆上有很多国家发展得很快，但我认为中国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、哈萨克斯坦和伊朗将会发展成发达国家。我没有提到南亚国家，因为我的假设是到2050年，在这两个大陆之间有一些国家被称为横贯大陆的，或在附近的，在这些国家中，我们有土耳其，阿塞拜疆，格鲁吉亚，显然还有俄罗斯，这些国家在未来会得到发展。在大西洋的另一边，我们有乌拉圭、智利和阿根廷，它们将在未来得到发展。在加勒比海的上方是哥斯达黎加，它在未来也会发展起来。不幸的是，我对非洲经济的深度增长和那里的基础设施不是很了解。因此，我宁愿不作判断。
A good answer will comprise the Eastern European countries i.e the countries which were at the Communist Corridor of Europe but those countries are at developed category already to some extent as these countries have somewhat high effect from the European unx. These countries are Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary
Then there are countries in Europe which are not part of European unx but are almost developed or will be developed. These countries are Serbia, Montenegro
Now moving to the other side of the Ural Mountains i.e Asia. This continent has so many countries that are flourishing so quickly but the countries that will be developed in my opinion are China, Philippines,Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Kazakhstan,Iran. I did not mention South Asian countries because my assumption is upto 2050
But between the two continents lie some countries which are known as Transcontinental or somewhat nearby. Among those we have Turkey, Azerbaijan,Georgia and obviously Russia which will be developed in the future
On the other side of the Atlantic we have Uruguay,Chile and Argentina which will be developed in the future
And above the Caribbean sea we have Costa Rica which will be developed in the future
Unfortunately I am not well aware about Africa''''s economical growth in depth and the infrastructure there. Therefore I preferred not to judge
一个好的答案当包括东欧国家。那些曾经是欧洲走廊的国家，但这些国家已经在某种程度上属于发达国家，因为这些国家在欧盟中有较高的影响力。这些国家是拉脱维亚，立陶宛，克罗地亚，爱沙尼亚，匈牙利。还有一些欧洲国家虽然不属于欧盟，但已经或即将发展成为发达国家。这些国家是塞尔维亚和黑山。现在我们来看乌拉尔山脉另一边的亚洲。这个大陆上有很多国家发展得很快，但我认为中国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、哈萨克斯坦和伊朗将会发展成发达国家。我没有提到南亚国家，因为我的假设是到2050年，在这两个大陆之间有一些国家被称为横贯大陆的，或在附近的，在这些国家中，我们有土耳其，阿塞拜疆，格鲁吉亚，显然还有俄罗斯，这些国家在未来会得到发展。在大西洋的另一边，我们有乌拉圭、智利和阿根廷，它们将在未来得到发展。在加勒比海的上方是哥斯达黎加，它在未来也会发展起来。不幸的是，我对非洲经济的深度增长和那里的基础设施不是很了解。因此，我宁愿不作判断。
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