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(原标题)软实力超级大国

Global trends in cultural engagement and influence

（副标题）全球文化参与与文化影响力变化趋势

Author: Alistair MacDonald

作者：阿利斯泰尔·麦克唐纳

The global presence of international cultural institutions

国际文化机构的全球存在

Against the backdrop of global power shifts, growing competition between nations and challenges to the international rules-based system, major changes are taking place in the soft power landscape globally. A number of countries are investing heavily in this area and one of the clearest indicators of this is the expanding presence and impact of states’ official bodies for cultural and educational exchange. In this chapter we present the latest data on these crucial networks.

相对于全球权力转移的背景，国家之间日益增多的竞争以及基于规则的国际体系所面临的挑战，在全球范围内，重大转变正发生在软实力领域。很多国家正在这个领域中大举投资，而最明显的迹象之一便是各国官方机构在文化和教育交流中不断扩大的存在及其带来的影响。在本章节中，我们给出了有关这些关键网络的最新数据。

（图解：图一）

Figure 1 shows the changes in the global presence of the principal cultural institutes of key countries over the past five years. The data shows that China now has by far the largest number of international cultural institutes, with 507 of its Confucius Institutes now in operation, a huge increase from the 320 that were operational in 2013. The second largest nation for its global footprint of cultural institutes is France with 219 Institut Français centres around the world, a modest decrease on the 229 it had in 2013. The UK remains in third place in 2018 with 177 offices of the British Council, down from 196 in 2013. Equally noteworthy is the doubling in the number of operations of the Russkiy Mir Foundation up to 171 from just 82 five years ago.The remainder of the results show less dramatic changes. The dramatic expansion in the scale of the operations of both the Confucius Institute and Russkiy Mir Foundation reflects the priority China and Russia respectively have been giving to increasing their global influence and the very significant investments that they are making to achieve this. With the notable exception of the GoetheInstitut, which has increased its offices from 159 to 169, the European cultural office networks are by contrast in decline. Across the West in many nations, public investment in soft power has been either stable or falling. While the focus may be on China and Russia, all of the other Asian and Latin American countries in this study have also shown growth in their global footprint, reflecting growing investment and increasing focus on soft power as a plank of their foreign policy. Funding pressures have seen the British Council office network contract by nearly ten per cent over the same period as the Confucius Institute’s global operations have grown by over 50 per cent. The most notable decline in the British Council’s operations has been in the developed world with office closures including Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and New York. If these trends continue over the next five-year period we may start to witness a major reshaping of the global picture of cultural and soft power networks, with significant long-term implications for influence.

图一展现了过去五年中，关键国家的主要文化机构全球存在情况的变动。数据显示，到目前为止，中国拥有的国际文化机构数量最多，现在运营着520家孔子学院，相比2013年的320家有了大幅增长。文化机构全球存在数量第二多的国家是法国，在全球有219家法国文化中心，相比于2013年的229家出现了小幅下降。英国在2018年保住了第三的座次，拥有177间英国文化协会办公室，相比于2013年的196间有所下降。同样值得注意的是，“俄罗斯世界”基金会的运营数量出现了翻倍的情况，从5年前的82家增至171家。其余的结果展现出的剧烈变化较少。孔子学院和“俄罗斯世界”基金会在运营规模上的急剧扩张，反映出中国和俄罗斯一直以来在增强其全球影响力及其为达此目的作出的重大投资上设置的优先级。除去歌德学院这个值得注意的例外，其办公室已经从159间增至169间，相比之下欧洲的文化办公室网络正在收缩中。在西方很多国家，对软实力的公共投资一直处在不变或是下降中。虽然焦点可能在中国和俄罗斯身上，这项研究中所有其他的亚洲和拉丁美洲国家在其全球存在方面也展现出了增长，表现在不断增长的投资，以及对软实力不断提升的关注度，后者已然成了它们外交政策的支点。资金压力已经让英国文化协会的办公室网络收缩了近10%，而在同一时期，孔子学院的全球运营数量增长了超过50%，英国文化协会运营数量最显著的下降出现在发达国家，在包括芬兰、丹麦、瑞典、挪威和纽约均有办公室被关停。如果这种趋势在今后五年间内延续下去，我们可能会开始见证文化和软实力网络全球版图的一次重大重塑，长期来看，这对影响力有重大意义。

（图二）

Figure 2 shows the regional presence of cultural institutes in both 2013 and 2018. This provides a more detailed picture of where investment in cultural institutes is taking place and which parts of the world are being most targeted for cultural connections and influence.

图二展示了2013年和2018年，文化机构在各地区的存在。这就投资文化机构的发生地，以及世界上哪个地区受文化联系和文化影响力投射最多，给出了更加详细的图景。

The data shows that the European unx has the greatest concentration of cultural institutes with a total of 412 (or 461 when we include the UK). The Americas comes in second with 284 cultural institutes followed by East Asia (245), Wider Europe – which includes the countries of the Former USSR along with Turkey and Israel – (192), Sub-Saharan Africa (143), the Middle East and North Africa (138), and South Asia (84). The growth in the number of Confucius Institutes in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the Wider Europe region is particularly notable, with the Middle East and North Africa now the only region where any European countries’ cultural institutions have a more extensive physical presence than China.

数据显示，文化机构分布最为密集的是欧盟，总数为412家（算上英国的话则为461家）。南北美位居第二，有284家文化机构，东亚以245家紧随其后。泛欧地区，包括前苏联国家，加上土耳其和以色列，有192家，撒哈拉以南的非洲地区有143家，中东和北非地区有138家，南亚地区有84家。孔子学院在撒哈拉以南的非洲和泛欧地区的数量增加尤其显著，目前，中东和北非地区是唯一一个欧洲国家文化机构的实体存在比中国数量更多的地区。

The most notable decline in the British Council’s operations has been in the European unx and Wider Europe. This is in contrast to other countries covered by this study which almost all show increases or at least maintenance of their presence across both regions over the past five years. For example, the Russkiy Mir Foundation presence in the European unx has increased from 28 to 58 offices while in Wider Europe the increase is from 31 to 56 offices.

英国文化协会运营数量最显著的下降发生在欧盟和泛欧地区。相形之下，该研究覆盖到的其他国家过去五年在这两个地区几乎都呈现为增长，至少也能维持其存在。例如，“俄罗斯世界”基金会在欧盟的存在已经从28间办公室升至58间，同时在泛欧地区，已经从31间办公室升至56间。
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Leading nations’ approaches to soft power

全球主要国家构建软实力之路

In this section we explore the soft power strategies and assets of seven leading G20 states, highlighting their investment in, and ambitions for, growing their influence, before reviewing the status of the UK itself. The UK is often seen as an exemplar of soft power and is recognised for its large and effective diplomatic network and a strong reputation as a leading contributor to international development. The BBC World Service and the British Council are globally recognised as market leaders in their respective fields; while the global success of the UK’s cultural and educational sectors are seen as core to the country’s international attractiveness. While other countries often adopt superficially similar models for their soft power activities there are also often profound differences in their approaches. Some states have looked long and hard at the UK model and learned from it to develop their own distinctive and innovative approaches from which the UK in turn can learn.

在这个章节中，我们在对英国的地位作出评论之前，探讨了G20中的七个主要国家的软实力战略和软实力资产，突出了它们在增强影响力过程中的投资去向及野心所在。英国常被视为软实力的典范，其广大而有效的外交网络及其身为国际发展主要贡献者的声望也得到了认可。BBC全球服务以及英国文化协会在它们各自领域中市场领导者的地位在全球范围内得到了认可；而英国文化和教育部门在全球的成功被视为该国国际吸引力的核心。尽管其他国家通常会在其构建软实力的行动中采用在表面上类似的模式，其路数往往也会存在深刻的不同。有些国家仔细考究过英国模式并从中学习，以便走出它们自己的富有创新性的独特道路，而这是英国可以反过来学习的。

Brazil
Brazil is Latin America’s standout soft power.

【巴西篇】
巴西是拉丁美洲表现突出的软实力力量。

It has even been described as the world’s first big soft power. 1 Even before the 2014 World Cup or 2016 Olympics, Brazil was attracting significant global attention and not just for football or carnival, Brazil’s rise has been peaceful and largely uncontroversial. Along with countries such as Canada and Germany it is generally perceived as a benign actor on the international stage.

该国甚至已经被描述为全世界第一个软实力大国。甚至早在2014年世界杯或是2016年奥运会之前，巴西就吸引了全球的高度关注，而且不只是足球或狂欢节，巴西的崛起一直是和平的，而且很大程度上是不会引起争议的。巴西与诸如加拿大和德国等国一道，在国际舞台上普遍被视作一个良性的角色。

Brazil’s participation in the wider world is generally welcomed. It is respected both as a relatively stable democracy and for the economic achievements of the Lula years. Brazil draws interest from other states when it comes to creating and exporting innovative ways to alleviate poverty and foster a free society. However, ongoing political and economic instability and concerns over corruption have cast a shadow over Brazil’s international aspirations. Global broadcasts of the violent protests ahead of the 2016 Olympics tarnished what should have been a PR success. These factors have undermined what had been a solid programme
of public diplomacy and nation branding. However, the longer-term fundamentals remain undeniable. Brazil is the world’s eighth largest economy with vast reserves of natural resources. Despite the widely publicised political controversies that have overtaken the country, Brazil continues to score well in the Freedom House rankings – its vibrant civil society sector and free press in particular serving as a counterweight to the corruption in the political class.

巴西参与到更广泛的世界事务中是受到普遍欢迎的。它因其相对稳定的民主国家身份，以及卢拉主政年间的经济成就而受到尊重。巴西在创造和输出富有创新性的扶贫方法以及培育自由社会方面，吸引了其他国家的兴趣。然而，持续的政治和经济不稳定以及对腐败的担忧给巴西的国际抱负蒙上了一层阴影。2016年奥运会前夕暴力抗议的全球转播，给本该成功的一次公关沾上了污点。这些因素已经破坏了原本相当可靠的公共外交以及国家品牌建设计划。然而从长期看，其基本面仍是不容否认的。巴西是世界第八大经济体，拥有巨额储量的自然资源。尽管被广泛曝光的政治论战已经让这个国家不堪重负，巴西在自由之家排名中继续得到高分，特别是其充满活力的公民社会以及出版自由，对政治阶层中的腐败起到了平衡的作用。
（译注：自由之家是一个国际性的非政府组织，创立于1941年，总部位于美国华盛顿，致力于民主、政治自由的研究和支持）

Brazil’s growing interest in Africa has seen the launch of TV Brasil Internacional with bases in Rio and Maputo broadcasting to the lusophone world. Brazilian football and soap operas are keenly followed by the inhabitants of Portuguese-speaking Africa. Launched in 2010, TV Brasil was initially scheduled to broadcast to 49 African nations with plans then to roll it out to Latin America, North America and Europe. TV Brasil Internacional is only one element in an ambitious programme of international engagement. The Lula and Dilma governments saw significant investment in cultural diplomacy designed to bring Brazil to the world. Part of the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Itamaraty Cultural Department is organised in five units covering the promotion of: language; culture and cultural exchange; Brazilian cinema, television production and advertising; Brazilian policy and news; international liaison on culture with multilateral bodies; and international education. 2 The Itarmaraty operates Brazil’s Cultural Network. The Network is present in more than 40 countries in all continents but the main foci are lusophone Africa, Brazil’s Latin American neighbours and key G20 capitals. It consists of 24 Cultural Centers, five Nuclei of Study and around 40 readerships. The Centers promote the systematic teaching of the Portuguese language as spoken in Brazil; the diffusion of Brazilian literature; the distribution of information material about Brazil; the organisation of exhibitions of visual arts and theatrical performances; the co-edition and distribution of texts by national authors; the diffusion of erudite and popular music; the dissemination of Brazilian cinematography; and other forms of Brazilian cultural expression, such as lectures and seminars.

巴西对非洲的兴趣与日俱增，巴西国际电视台已经开办，总部位于里约热内卢和马普托，面向葡语世界播送节目。非洲的葡语区居民热衷于追看巴西的足球和肥皂剧。巴西电视台创立于2010年。最初的计划是向49个非洲国家播送节目，并有在之后铺开到拉丁美洲、北美和欧洲的计划。巴西国际电视台只是其雄心勃勃的国际参与计划中的一个要素而已。卢拉和迪尔玛政府在文化外交中投入巨大，为的就是让巴西走向世界。外交文化部是巴西外交部的一部分，由五个单位组成，它们负责推广的是：语言、文化和文化交流；巴西电影电视和广告产业；巴西政策和新闻；与多边机构的国际文化联络；以及国际教育。由巴西外交部来运营巴西的文化网络。该网络存在于所有大洲上的40多个国家，但主要聚焦于非洲的葡语区、巴西在拉丁美洲的邻国以及G20中关键国家的首都。它由24个文化中心、5个研究中心和大约40个读者群组成。这些中心推动了系统性的巴西葡语教学、巴西文学的传播扩散、有关巴西的信息材料的分发、视觉艺术展和文艺演出的组织、国民作家文稿的合作出版和分发、严肃音乐和流行音乐的传播扩散、巴西电影摄影的宣传。以及其他形式的巴西文化表达，比如讲座和研讨会。
（译注：马普托，莫桑比克首都）

The Brazilian readers are university professors sexted through a public exam to act in foreign universities. During their time abroad, readers teach the Brazilian version of the Portuguese language and also work to promote themes related to cultural manifestations of Brazil. The Itamaraty operates programmes like New Voices of Brazil that promotes new Brazilian music as well as artistic exchanges. In partnership with the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, it delivered the Ciências sem Fronteiras (Science Without Borders) programme, that enabled young Brazilians to study at European and American universities, and now manages its successor PRINT. Brazil’s ambitions are evident in the numbers – between 2011 and 2016 Ciências sem Fronteiras granted more than 100,000 scholarships.

“巴西读者”是通过公开考试选拔的大学教授，为的是去外国的大学中发挥作用。在身处海外期间，这些“读者”教授巴西版本的葡萄牙语，也会开展工作去推广一些和巴西的文化诉求有关的主题内容。巴西外交部会运作诸如“巴西新声音”等节目，以推广巴西新音乐以及艺术交流。通过和教育部以及科技与创新部的合作，外交部还拿出了“科学无国界”计划，让年轻的巴西人能去欧洲和美国大学求学，而且现正在运作其后续计划“PRINT”。巴西的雄心昭显在了数字上，2011年至2016年，“科学无国界”批准了10万多笔奖学金。

Brazil is the leading member of the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP), an increasingly integrated community of former colonies and states of the Portuguese Empire. The CPLP arguably has an energy that has been lacking in the more established Commonwealth of Nations. Collectively the membership is the world’s fourth largest producer of oil giving impetus to greater co-operation. Discussions between the members exploring deeper political and diplomatic co-operation including in matters of the seas, defence and trade are ongoing. Other non-lusophone states, including other G20 states like Japan, Turkey and Australia, have expressed interest in engagement with the CPLP through associate arrangements and observer status.

巴西是葡萄牙语国家共同体（CPLP）的主要成员，是一个由葡萄牙帝国前殖民地和下属国家组成的、一体化程度日益加深的共同体。可以认为，这个葡语国家共同体拥有认可度更高的英联邦所一直所缺乏的那种活力。这些成员加总起来就是全球第四大石油生产方，这样它们就有了开展更大规模合作的动力。在这些成员之间就深化政治和外交合作（包括海洋、防务和贸易问题）展开的讨论正在进行中。其他非葡语国家包括其他一些G20国家如日本、土耳其和澳大利亚已经表达了兴趣，希望通过商定伙伴关系以及观察员身份的方式参与到葡语国家共同体中来。
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The growing South–South co-operation evident in Brazil’s increasing engagement with its South Atlantic neighbours has passed largely unnoticed in the West. There is a risk of complacency among countries that have long relied on the attractiveness of their advanced economies, culture and values. For the growing economies of the Global South, neighbours and regional powers like Brazil, India and South Africa are often more attractive partners than former colonial powers. The power relationships between states tend to be more equitable, practical and without the risk of the patrician overtones of North–South interactions. While Brazil still has many challenges, its developmental experience is relatable and has much to offer other states looking to grow and diversify. There are valuable lessons to share, a sense of solidarity with other former colonies and the opportunity to enter into mutually beneficial partnerships rather than the donor–supplicant relationship that often characterises North–South relations. Brazil also offers a model of progress that embraces the values of freedom and self-determination that are so important to those that have fought for independence from European colonial powers.

南南合作的不断扩大，在巴西与南大西洋邻国不断增加的交往中是显而易见的，而这在西方基本上没有引起注意。那些长久以来仰赖发达的经济、文化和价值观所带来的吸引力的国家，在它们中间存在着自满自足的风险。对于全球南方成长中的经济体来说，邻国和地区强国比如巴西、印度和南非，相比于前殖民大国通常是更有吸引力的合作伙伴。国与国之间的这种权力关系往往更平等、更贴合实际，也不会有北南互动中被自诩高贵的国家颐指气使的风险。虽然巴西仍面对很多挑战，它的发展经验是可以引发共鸣的，也有很多经验可以提供给其他寻求发展壮大和多样化的国家。有一些宝贵的经验教训可以分享，一种与其他前殖民地国家团结一致的意识，以及建立互利伙伴关系的良机，而不是变成北南关系中特有的捐赠者和祈求者的关系。巴西也提供了一种进步的模式，即信奉自由和自决的价值观，而这对于那些曾为了从欧洲殖民大国手中争取独立进行过斗争的国家是如此的重要。