QA:今天哪个小国家最有可能在某天成为超级大国?
2022-10-30 君子冲盈 11327
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Steve Melnick, Professional Questioner, Amateur Answerer
Ghana. (Ghana?)
Is it a 'minor' country? I think so - 82d in area, 40th in population, 70th in GDP.

加纳。( 加纳? )
它是一个“小国家”吗? 我想是的——面积排第82,人口排第40,GDP排第70。

Now some process of elimination. The current or rising powers are going to ensure that no one in their corner of the globe gets too out of hand and will smother any baby-superpowers in their crib, so that eliminates any nation in the Americas (US and Brazil), Europe (EU and Russia), or most of Asia (India, China). The Middle East is now under extensive scrutiny by the world powers and beset by vicious rivalries, so you're not likely to see any superpowers germinating there. We need to look to Africa. Sub-Saharan - anything North Africa will draw the attention of Europe.

现在说说分析、排除的过程。
目前或正在崛起的大国不会让自己周边太过失控,不会扼杀任何婴儿期超级大国,所以这就淘汰了美洲(美国和巴西)、欧洲(欧盟和俄罗斯)或亚洲大部分地区(印度、中国)的任何国家。
中东现在正受到世界强国的广泛关注,并受到恶性竞争的困扰,所以你不太可能看到任何超级大国在那里萌芽。
我们需要关注非洲,撒哈拉以南地区——北非地区任何国家都会引起欧洲的注意。

So, Ghana. It has an ambitious plan to modernize their economy in the next few decades. It has reasonably large oil reserves (est. 5B barrels), so it can literally fuel its own expansion. By African standards, the government is stable and corruption is low, which helps a lot too. The military is tiny, but let's assume that part of the economic modernization is a big push into weapons manufacturing.
To achieve superpower status, Ghana will need:*
To follow through on its plan to become a modern, developed economy
Invest substantially in its military

那么,加纳就能算上一个了,加纳有一个雄心勃勃的计划,要在未来几十年实现经济现代化,加纳拥有相当大的石油储量(约50亿桶) ,因此可以为自身的扩张提供燃料。
按照非洲的标准,加纳政府稳定,腐败程度较低,这也起到了很大的作用,虽然军队规模很小,但我们可以假设,经济现代化的一部分就是大力推进武器制造。
要想成为超级大国,加纳需要:
贯彻其计划,成为一个现代化、发达的经济体
在军事上投入大量资金

Take over a few of its small, unstable neighbors, either through invasion or amicable annexation
Cultivate relations with a major power (probably China) - get diplomatic cover and technology in exchange for cheap resources
First major opponent: Nigeria. Capture Nigeria - Ghana declares itself the Pan African Republic.
Accept others into this new Pan African Republic
Bring stability to the constituent states of the PAR, by brutal force if necessary. Also, invest heavily in local infrastructure and social services - roads, schools, hospitals, power plants, plumbing. The people of other nations will start clamoring to join the PAR.

通过入侵或友好兼并的方式接管几个不稳定的小邻国
与一个大国 ( 可能是中国 ) 建立关系——用廉价的资源换取外交掩护和技术
第一个主要对手: 尼日利亚
占领尼日利亚——加纳宣告自己为“泛非共和国”。
接纳他人进入这个新的“泛非共和国”
如有必要,使用野蛮的武力给“泛非共和国”各组成国带来稳定,此外,大力投资当地的基础设施和社会服务——道路、学校、医院、发电厂、管道系统,其他国家的人民将开始呼吁加入“泛非共和国”。

Continue expanding the military rapidly throughout
Play the various world powers off each other to ensure the rest of the world leaves you alone. Encourage Russian adventurism, Indian-Pakistani rivalry, Middle Eastern instability. Make the Chinese solely dependent on PAR resources. Export millions of emigrants to a Europe whose population is steadily shrinking and desperate for low-wage workers. Hope the US continues to disregard anything that happens in Africa.
Annex South Africa through internal disruption and invasion. After South Africa falls, any hold-outs in sub-Saharan Africa should fall in line quickly.

继续在全国范围内迅速扩充军队
让世界上的各个大国相互竞争,其他国家便不再骚扰你,鼓励俄罗斯搞冒险主义,促使印度和巴基斯坦相互竞争,让中东陷入不稳定,让中国完全依赖“泛非共和国”的资源,向欧洲输出数百万移民,而欧洲的人口正在不断减少,并且急需低工资的工人,希望美国继续无视在非洲发生的任何事情。
通过内部干扰和入侵吞并南非,南非沦陷之后,撒哈拉以南非洲的任何坚守者都将迅速归顺。

Acquire nuclear weapons, detonate one in the Sahara for effect.
Any next steps would probably lead to a super-regional war, or possibly world war. If the PAR can acquire a significant portion of the Middle East, or subjugate the tired old man that Europe has become, then Ghana will have become a superpower.
* Author note - never thought I'd write that sentence.

获得核武器,在撒哈拉引爆一枚以制造效果。
接下来的任何步骤都可能导致一场超级地区战争,甚至可能是世界大战,如果“泛非共和国”能够获得中东的重要部分,或者征服已然老去的欧洲,那么加纳将成为一个超级大国。
* 作者注:没想到我会写出这篇东西。。

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