莫迪总理可以粉饰太平,但事实就是印度现在甚至落后于孟加拉国
2021-01-27 碧波荡漾恒河水 29924
正文翻译

We have entered the 13th consecutive quarter of economic slowdown in India. Gross Domestic Product, meaning the total value of services and goods produced in this country in the last 12 months, shrunk in 2020-2021 against 2019-2020. We made less than we did the previous year. To return to where we were in January 2020, it will take perhaps another year. Perhaps longer, we do not know.

印度经济已经连续第13个季度放缓。GDP指的是一国过去12个月生产的服务和商品的总价值,与2019-2020年相比,印度在2020-2021年出现了萎缩。也就是我们赚的比去年少。要想回到2020年1月的水平,可能还需要一年的时间。也许更久,我们不知道。

The problem did not begin with Covid; it existed much before that. Growth began declining from January 2018 and has declined sequentially, meaning every quarter since then. The government has tried to tweak some of the numbers, something that Americans refer to as “putting lipstick on a pig” but to no avail. It is sequential decline over three years. The India growth story is over and has been over for a few years now. You can make all the speeches you want but you cannot argue against 39 straight months of slowing.

这个问题并非始于新冠疫情,它在那之前就存在了。增长从2018年1月开始放缓,并连续放缓,也就是说从那以后每个季度都在放缓。印度政府曾试图调整一些数据——美国人称之为“给猪涂口红”(粉饰太平)——但毫无效果。增速已经连续三年放缓了。印度的增长故事已经结束,而且已经结束了好几年。我们可以随心所欲的做演讲,但我们无法反驳经济增速连续39个月放缓的事实。

Speaking loudly of competing with China and America but then falling behind even Bangladesh’s per capita GDP does not inspire confidence. The fact is that even without the lockdown we were in crisis, a word that is used loosely but can be said to be accurate here. The government has no idea why the economy began to stall from January 2018. There are theories from the outside, but they are not discussed or debated in government — who will tell the King that his rule is incompetent? Nobody, unless they want to lose their head (or at least their job) and so we continue to bumble on, along the same path that has brought us to this disaster.

我们大谈与中国和美国竞争,然后连人均GDP都落在了孟加拉国后面,这并不能激发信心。事实上,即使没有封锁,我们也处于危机中,人们轻率的使用“危机”这个词,但用在这里可以说很准确。经济从2018年1月开始停滞,政府不知道原因是什么。现在有些来自外部的理论,但政府中并没有将它们纳入讨论或辩论——谁会跟那个国王说他的统治很无能?没有人会说,除非他们想掉脑袋(或者至少会丢掉饭碗),所以我们继续沿着把这条我们带进这场灾难的道路,跌跌撞撞地走下去。

The signs of our decay are all around us. Work that has left China because of Trump’s trade war and Covid has not come to India but to Vietnam and Bangladesh. Our neighbour has crept ahead of us in per capita GDP because its exports (powered by high-labour intensive garment manufacturing) are growing while ours have not grown since 2014. We have six years of zero growth in exports. It is also ahead because it has much higher participation of women in the labour force.

我们周围到处都是衰退的迹象。由于特朗普的贸易战和新冠肺炎而离开中国的就业岗位,并没有来到印度,而是去了越南和孟加拉国。我们的邻国已经在人均GDP上超过了我们,因为它的出口(由高劳动密集型服装制造业推动)在增长,而我们的出口自2014年以来就没有增长。我们的出口持续6年零增长。邻国领先的另一个原因是女性在劳动力中的参与率要比我们高得多。

In India, the patriarchy is more concerned about who Indians marry rather than why they are not working. India is the most dangerous place for women in the world. According to the Thomson Reuters Foundation World’s Most Dangerous Countries for Women, we were at fourth place in 2011 and then fell to last place in 2018, where presumably we remain. The low participation of women in the workforce has many complex reasons, but the failure of the State and indeed the inability of this current government to stop the slide further, is also responsible.

在印度,父权制更关心印度女人嫁给谁,而不是她们为什么不工作。对女性来说,印度是世界上最危险的地方。根据汤森路透基金会发布的“世界上对女性最危险的国家”榜单,我们在2011年排名第四,然后在2018年跌至最后一名,现在应该还在这个位置上。女性劳动力的参与率低,有许多复杂的原因,但政府的失败以及本届政府无法阻止其进一步下滑也是原因之一。

We have more of the same to look forward to in 2021. We will not see the economy pick up but we will see more bombast from the government about how well we are doing. The enormous hole in the economy that was created in the first quarter of last year (April-June) because of the lockdown will have been filled over the last few months. When results for the same quarter year on year appear sometime in the middle of 2021, Modi will exclaim that we are the world’s fastest growing economy and pretend that the 25% increase is not just the filing up of a hole he himself created but some miracle he has delivered to the Indian economy.

2021年我们还会看到更多类似的事情。我们不会看到经济复苏,但我们会看到政府对本国的表现夸夸其谈。去年第一季度(4月至6月)封锁给经济造成的巨大缺口,将在过去几个月被填补。当季度同比增长的结果在2021年年中的某个时候出现时,莫迪会大声说“我们是世界上增长最快的经济体”——他假装那25%的增长不仅弥补了他本人制造的窟窿,而且是他为印度经济创造的奇迹。

The Economist reported that Mukesh Ambani’s wealth rose 350% in 2020 and Gautam Adani’s rose over 700%, but we are at record unemployment, which is hovering around the 9% mark. And it is not higher still only because many crore Indians have removed themselves from the job market. Those who are not employed and not actively looking for work are not considered unemployed. The real figure could be approaching 15% and perhaps even higher than that.

《经济学人》报道称,2020年,穆凯什·安巴尼的财富增长了350%,高塔姆·阿达尼的财富增长了700%以上,但我们的失业率却创下了新纪录,徘徊在9%左右。而且,这并不是仅仅因为有几千万印度人离开了就业市场。那些没有工作或者没有积极寻找工作的人不会被视为失业者。实际失业率数字可能接近15%,甚至可能更高。

On every conceivable metric that you can think of, from bank credit growth, to automobile sale, the revelation is not only that there is no India growth story but there is a decline that has set us back years, perhaps a decade. And yet the triumphalism carries on. The BJP won almost half the seats of West Bengal in 2019 and one will be very surprised if they do not win the election there later this year. The amount of resource they have because of the electoral bonds and because of the broad support Modi receives from corporate India cannot be matched by any other party and cannot be matched by all other parties put together. Another state will fall to the BJP, and if it doesn’t this time then certainly it will the next.

从银行信贷增长到汽车销售,我们能想到的每一个指标都表明,印度不仅没有增长故事,而且出现了倒退数年、甚至10年的衰退。然而,人们继续抱着必胜的心态。2019年,印度人民党赢得了西孟加拉邦近一半的席位,如果他们没有赢得今年晚些时候的选举,我会非常惊讶。由于选举债券和莫迪从印度企业界获得的广泛支持,他们拥有的资源数量是任何其他政党都无法匹敌的,其他所有政党加起来也无法与之匹敌。又一个邦会落入人民党之手,而且如果这次没有,那么下次肯定会。

Elsewhere, society has been torn apart, most likely in a way that cannot ever be repaired. I am not saying this out of despair but one has to be realistic. This amount of poison being injected from the top cannot be detoxified without resistance and one sees no resistance to it.

在其他地方,我们的社会已经分崩离析,而且很可能以一种无法修复的方式。我这么说不是出于绝望,而是认为我们必须面对现实。如果没有抗性,印度无法解除顶层注入的这么多毒素,而我们对这种毒素没有任何抗性。

On every parameter, from economic decline to national security failure to unemployment to social tensions, India will continue in the path that it has chosen for itself since 2014. But at least Modi will continue to be popular, making his daily sermons about how much better things are under him and how bad it was in the past.

从经济衰退到国家安全失败,从失业到社会紧张,印度将在2014年以来为自己选择的那条道路上继续走下去。但至少莫迪还会继续受欢迎,每天都在布道,说他领导下的情况有多好,过去的情况有多糟糕。

评论翻译
xeuss
Indians elected a mass murderer to teach the Muslims a lesson, not for economic progress.

印度人选出一个大屠杀凶手,是为了给穆斯林一个教训,而不是为了发展经济。

fallstuff
I think you may have a point here.

我觉得你说的有道理。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Capt. Karnage
I really miss Dr Manmohan. A man of great learning like him would never have let things go this bad. &@#* you feku and bhakts.

我真的很想念曼莫汉博士。像他这样有学问的人是不会让局面变得如此糟糕的。CNM,莫迪,CNM,印度教徒。

waz
He was a good PM for India and a man of intellect i.e. Oxford Economics.

他是一位优秀的印度总理,也一位才智过人的人,一位牛津大学的经济学家。

Ali_Baba
Does that mean, Modi will now attack Bangladesh so that he can bring their economy down and still look like they are doing better?

这是否意味着莫迪现在会攻击孟加拉国,这样他就能搞垮他们的经济,让印度显得更好?

Turcici Imperium
What does even that mean?

你这话是什么意思?

Destranator
I admire your honesty.
South Asians really need to grow up and stop using religion as a tool for hatred and division.
However, as the largest nation in the region India must lead by example.
Education is the key.

我钦佩你的诚实。
南亚人真的需要成长起来,停止把宗教作为仇恨和分裂的工具。
然而,作为该地区最大的国家,印度必须率先树立榜样。
教育是关键。

Bilal9
I had a lot of respect for Dr. Manmohan Singh. A brilliant economist with impeccable credentials, a man of few words, he had started the dialog with China and Pakistan and he solely is credited with opening up the Indian economy.
Bhakts hyped Feku and his cohorts too much. These people are terminally clueless.
Where is the Tiger growl and 56 inch chest now? Sad.

我非常尊敬曼莫汉·辛格博士。他是一位才华横溢的经济学家,有着无可挑剔的资历,作为一个沉默寡言的人,他开启了与中国和巴基斯坦的对话,印度经济开放的功劳属于他一个人。
印度信徒对莫迪和他的追随者做了太多的炒作。这些人完全没有头绪。
印度虎的咆哮和56英寸大胸现在在哪里?估计在黯然神伤吧。

GumNaam
bhutan, timbaktu, zimbabwe & uganda are even doing better than india.

甚至不丹、廷巴克图、津巴布韦和乌干达做得都比印度好。

Bilal9
Modi was complicit behind the scheme to kill Muslims in Gujarat riots in 2002. His party (BJP) is known to have fascist militant Hindu and anti-Muslim leanings, and reportedly planned the attacks.
en.wikipedia.org
2002 Gujarat riots - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

莫迪是2002年古吉拉特邦暴乱中杀害穆斯林计划的幕后主使。众所周知,他的政党(人民党)带有法西斯主义好战印度教和反穆斯林倾向,据报道是他策划了这次袭击。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


fallstuff
He is a capable man, certainly a man no one could talk him into doing crazy demonetization schemes.

他是一个有能力的人,当然也非常固执,废钞计划这种疯狂的事情肯定不是别人教他的。

SpaceMan18
RIP India lol , India keeps shooting itself on the foot for no reason

印度安息吧,哈哈,印度总是无缘无故的搬起石头砸自己的脚。

xeuss
Do you realize that the anti-Muslim hate is mostly perpetuated from the educated upper and middle classes? Education is not the key!

你知道吗?反穆斯林的仇恨主要来自受过教育的中上层阶级!教育不是关键!
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


xyxmt


(说涂口红,就涂口红)

Laozi
Indians now will start migrating to Bangladesh to enjoy a prosperous future.
Indian Muslims may start migrating to Pakistan once she overtakes India economically.
Its good for everyone if South Asia prospers.

印度人现在将开始移民到孟加拉国,以享受繁荣的未来。
一旦巴基斯坦经济超过印度,印度穆斯林可能会开始移民到巴基斯坦。
南亚繁荣对所有人都有好处。

Bilal9
I know a lot of the IT labor going overseas (esp. to US) is diehard Bhakt.
They have VHP run schools over here.
These people I'm guessing are primarily from educated Middle class in India who drank the kool aid.
But Upper class may have certain motivated obxtives. They want to use religion to control the masses.
Certain celebrities are also trying to actively make hay from this. Look at the list of Bollywood folks and decide whether you want to support their next commercial venture.
www.filmybyte.com
Complete List of Bollywood Actors Who Support BJP
Bollywood Actors Who Support BJP: Political affiliations are no longer a thing to hide in India. If you support good
www.filmybyte.com www.filmybyte.com

我知道很多前往海外(尤其是美国)的IT工人都是死硬的印度教徒。
他们非常积极的这里开办学校。
我猜这些人主要来自印度受过良好教育的中产阶级。
但上层阶级可能存在某些动机。他们想用宗教来控制大众。
某些名人也在积极利用这一点。看看宝莱坞人的名单,再决定你是否想要支持他们的下一个商业冒险。
“支持印度人民党的宝莱坞演员完整名单”
“支持印度人民党的宝莱坞演员:在印度,政治立场不再是一件需要隐藏的事情。”

mb444
We already have 1.5m illigal indians working in BD ..... the rest is history....

我们孟加拉国已经有150万非法印度打工者……剩下的大家都知道了……

Capt. Karnage
Let's swap illegal Indians with illegal Bangladeshis.

我们看看印度非法打工者和非法打工的孟加拉佬哪个更多。

adelphi
He was a good economist but a weak prime minister. He actually had no Pakistan policy, was too scared to visit Pakistan. Back tracked after Sharm-el-sheikh decleration. Even termed his Kirtarpur visit personal despite being a state invitee. He was not a PM material but a good finance minister. I consider Vajpayee as better statesman and PM material.

他是一位优秀的经济学家,但却是一位无能的总理。他实际上对巴基斯坦束手无策,而且太害怕访问巴基斯坦。在沙姆沙伊赫出事后,他退缩了。尽管他应邀进行国事访问,但他却称此次访问是私人访问。他不是当总理的料,而是一位优秀的财政部长。我认为瓦杰帕伊是更好的政治家和总理人选。

fallstuff
I don't understand the big deal, its just a few dollars.

我不明白这有什么大不了的,不过几块钱而已。

Homo Sapiens
As if being behind Bangladesh is such an impossibility for India !!
Indian GDP per capita was lower than Bangladesh up to 1960s. Then Bangladesh fall behind as the result of exploitation, war and post war chaos. Bangladesh's GDP per capita was barely higher than what it was in 1971. While India build a solid foundation for growth meantime. Now Bangladesh is recovering from that. Indian elitists thought India's lead over Bangladesh in socio-economic development is a permanent reality, so waking up from that delusion is proving very painful for them.

你们搞的就像印度不可能落后孟加拉国似的!
上世纪60年代,印度的人均GDP就曾低于孟加拉国。然后孟加拉国由于剥削、战争和战后混乱才落后了。当时孟加拉国的人均国内生产总值仅比1971年高一点点。这时候,印度为经济增长奠定了坚实的基础。现在孟加拉国正在从这种情况中恢复过来。印度精英认为,印度在社会经济发展方面领先孟加拉国是一个永恒的现实,所以从这种错觉中醒来,对他们来说才会非常痛苦。

Vanamali
Right time for attacking and plundering India... You can settle all your debts and establish a kalipha...
Ho slayer of mighty super powers, now time to dominate the world

是时候攻击和掠夺印度了……这样你们所有的债务就会一笔勾销,并且建立一个哈里发国……
你们将成为超级大国杀手,现在是主宰世界的时候了!
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Jackdaws
More than Modi being inept (which the idiot is), what this downplays is the strides Bangladesh itself has made. Especially wrt to female participation in the economy. Modi has bumbled along with two completely inept and stupid Finance Ministers in Jaitley and Sitaraman. Wasted two mandates. Duffer.

相比于莫迪的无能(他确实是个白痴),这篇文章低估了孟加拉国自身取得的进步,特别是女性对经济的参与。莫迪与两个彻底无能且愚蠢的财政部长(贾特里和西塔拉曼)一起跌跌撞撞,浪费了两届任期。笨蛋。

Bilal9
You'll be the losers. The 1.5 to 2 million illegal Indians in Bangladesh remit Billions of dollars to India, these are educated folks, mostly managers in factories and in corporates (some even "C" level folks). Bangladesh is the third largest remittance source for "rich" and "mahaan" India. Their illegality for work status is mainly from overstaying their tourist visas and using those visas to earn illegal income.
Meanwhile there are hardly any illegal Bangladeshis in India, Why on earth would they go? Our per capita GDP is higher than that of India and we have plenty of jobs for locals. It seems you don't read the news. If even there are a few nutcases who decide to go and stay in larger cities, these are uneducated Bais and Rickshaw pullers who hardly send back in money to Bangladesh. And India being what it is now, as Muslims these people will hardly find any work. Who will hire them?
These people are actually mainly from West Bengal, Odisha or Assam whom uneducated Cow-belters call "Bangladeshis". This is a laughable idiocy reported many times in the Indian media. No offense.

你们会是输家。在孟加拉国工作的150万到200万非法印度打工者向印度汇去了数十亿美元,这些人都是受过教育的人,大多是工厂和公司的经理(有些人甚至爬到了C级)。孟加拉国是“富裕”的印度的第三大汇款来源地。他们之所以非法,主要是因为他们的旅游签证过期,并利用这些签证获得非法收入。
与此同时,印度几乎没有非法打工的孟加拉人,他们为什么要去那里呢?我们的人均GDP高于印度,我们有大量的工作机会给本国人。你好像不看新闻。即使有几个疯子决定前往较大的城市,这些人也都是没有受过教育的苦力和人力车车夫,他们几乎不会把钱寄回孟加拉国。面对印度现在的状况,这些人身为穆斯林,很难找到工作。谁会雇用他们?
这些人实际上主要来自西孟加拉邦、奥里萨邦或阿萨姆邦,那些未受过教育的乡巴佬称他们为“孟加拉佬”。这是印度媒体报道过多次的可笑且愚蠢的行为。无意冒犯。

Capt. Karnage
As of now the only guy in Modi's cabinet who seems to have both the brain and efficiency is mr Gadkari but I don't believe he is an economist too. The only attempt to save the Indian economy would be to bring back prof Raghuram Rajan and appoint him the finance minister. Or take Dr Manmohan Singh's advise on economic affairs but that anpadh pm of ours will never do that.

到目前为止,莫迪内阁中唯一一个兼具头脑和效率的人是Gadkari,但我不认为他也是一名经济学家。唯一可能拯救印度经济的办法,就是让拉古拉姆·拉詹教授复职,并任命他为财政部长。或者接受曼莫汉·辛格博士在经济事务上的建议,但我们的文盲总理永远不会这么做。

IsThisNameAvailable
If the snake got its lesson, we Indians can focus on economic progress. Please bite as a confirmation.

如果这条蛇得到教训,我们印度人就可以专注于经济发展。请务必咬他一口。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Jackdaws
Even Piyush Goyal is good. And he would probably make a great Finance Minister considering his background.

就连Piyush Goyal也很好。考虑到他的背景,他可能会成为一名出色的财政部长。

IsThisNameAvailable
Bangladesh is not India's enemy. No reason for Indians to complain if a friendly nation grows & prospers.
(Statistics can be presented to prove almost anything under the sky. Just keep things real, thats all)

孟加拉国不是印度的敌人。印度人没有理由抱怨一个友好国家取得发展并繁荣昌盛。
(天空下的几乎任何事情都可以找到统计数据加以证明。实事求是就好了,就这样。)

Capt. Karnage
He is a chartered accountant not an economist. He will make the things worse.

他是注册会计师,而不是经济学家。(他会把事情弄得更糟。)

Jackdaws
I'd trust him over Nirmala Tai.

比起Nirmala Tai,我更相信他。

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