华尔街目前的状况可能比2008年还要糟
2021-02-02 Kira_Yoshikage 16701
正文翻译

The current Wallstreet could be worse than 2008

华尔街目前的状况可能比2008年还要糟

评论翻译
CubicleCunt
Let Me Tell You What's Happening

让我来告诉你现在是什么情况

This isn't financial advice and my opinion and analysis is presented for entertainment value, whether you have a long or short position in the market today or are just watching what's happening and trying to understand it, try to have some fun and appreciate the unprecedented historical events happening.

这不是专业的投资建议,我的分析仅供娱乐。不论你在市场上投了长线还是短线,还是只是在看热闹,想要理解一下发生了什么,我希望你们都能从中找到乐子,知道现在正在发生的是多么史无前例的历史性事件。

Before making any investment assess what level of risk you can take and do your own research and find a financial advisor you can trust.

在做任何投资之前,评估一下你能够承担什么程度的风险,自己做一下调研,找一名你信得过的投资顾问。

At the center of the current situation in the stock market is GameStop stock. The reason GameStop is at the center is because it was a struggling business which hedge funds (large organized investment institutions) figured was going to go bankrupt, so they short sold the stock to try to make a profit (they borrowed shares of the stock and then immediately sold the stock, agreeing to deliver the stock at an unspecified date in the future, anticipating being able to buy shares later at a lower price and profit.)

现在这场股市闹剧的中心是GameStop这支股票。GameStop在舞台中心的原因是它是一家快要完蛋的公司,而对冲基金(规模庞大的,有组织的投资机构)发现这家公司应该是要破产,于是他们做空它的股票想要从此获利(也就是预测到某支股票以后价格会下降,于是从别人手里借来股票卖,约定在未来的某个期限把借来的股票还回去。)

The short sellers who did this trade shorted over 100% of the available shares, about 140% of the float of shares were shorted when this story started picking up steam.

这些做这门生意的空头卖掉的股票比所有能卖的股票还多,在这件事开始发酵的时候已经有140%的发行股票被卖掉了。

Contrary to some media reports, this short interest hasn't been covered, its actually expanding, financhill.com reports that 250% of the float is currently shorted, meaning existing shorts actually doubled down.

与某些媒体所报道的相反,空头净额不仅没有下降,还仍然在增加,financhill.com的报告声称现在做空的股票已经是全部发行股的250%了,是原来的二倍。

You might ask how is it even possible that 250% of the float got shorted in the first place. The answer should be that it shouldn't ever have been, it was extremely risky to do, it possibly was illegal to do, and it most definitely should have been illegal to do. But it happened anyways.

你可能想要问,他们是怎么可能把全部发行股的250%都做空的。答案是这种事本不应该发生,这是风险极高的交易行为,甚至很可能是违法的交易行为,并且就应该是违法的。但这种事还是发生了。

Now, back in the summer, a few smart value investors like Michael Burry of the Big Short fame and RoaringKitty on YouTube saw this level of short interest and decided to start buying stock, recognizing that the price of the shares had been artificially driven down by the high level of short interest and that the fundamental qualities of the business were actually a lot healthier than the share price reflected, so they started buying up stock.

好,那么在去年夏天,像《大空头》的人物原型之一Michael Burry,以及YouTube上的RoaringKitty都看见了如此庞大的空头净额,决定开始买入,因为他们意识到股价是被人为压下来的,而这家企业本身的质量要比股价所反映的要好得多,所以他们决定买入。

Then once these smart investors made these purchases, other people started to follow suit, either because they saw their analysis of the stock and agreed with it and bought in, or simply because they saw the stock trending in an upwards direction in bought in. Doesn't really matter.

当这些比较聪明的投资者开始买入的时候,其他人也开始跟着买,要么是读了他们对这支股票的分析觉得有道理就买了,要么就只是看见股价在往上涨于是就买了。不重要。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Then other events happened which drove the stock price up higher, like Chewy executives getting involved with the company and GameStop having a good winter because of the new console launches.

然后又发生了一些新的事情,让股价继续上涨,比如Chewy(译注:美国的宠物电商)的领导层加入了公司,以及由于新游戏主机的发售,GameStop冬天的业绩不错,等等。

At no point in this situation did the short interest decrease significantly, in fact its only increased relative to the float. And the price has absolutely skyrocketed during that time.

直到那时为止,空头净额还没有显著地下跌,事实上对于已发行股票而言甚至还上涨了一些。而股价在那时已经在飞涨了。

Because the short sellers are contractually obligated to buy the stock back at some point, those holding the stock can essentially dictate the price that needs to be paid for it through the market.And since the short interest is so high, those obligated to buy back the stock might not even have enough money to even cover it if they started buying immediately.

由于空头签了合同,必须在未来的某一时刻把借的股票买回来,那么那些持股的散户就可以通过市场来单方面决定股价。而由于空头净额如此庞大,那些必须买回股票的空头甚至就算现在开始买,也可能没有钱买回所有的股票。

Now you might ask, if the funds who were short on gamestop cannot cover their obligations, what happens. Well, because they are contractually obligated, if they cannot continue to post collateral with the institutions they sold the stock short through to cover their rising debts (meeting the margin call), they will be forcibly liquidated in order to try to cover. But since they are short well over 100% of the stock, they can't cover. So even after they are liquidated, there will still be an unfulfilled obligation, which would be assumed by their prime broker.

现在你可能要问了,假如那些做空GameStop的基金不能履行他们的合约的话,会发生什么。嗯,因为他们签了合同,假如他们不能履行之前的担保,他们就会被强行破产来还债。但由于他们做空的股份超过了总发行股票的100%,他们就算破产也换不完债,剩余的债务就会转移到他们的主经纪商身上。

Prime brokers are investment banks who take on risks like this for hedge funds in the event that the fund makes bad trades and is forcibly liquidated. Because of the 2008 crash (when Bears Stearns failed) counterparty risk is now usually spread out, it's not assumed just by one bank on behalf of one fund, but by multiple banks to reduce the risk of any one bank failing because of bad trades made by one hedge fund.

主经纪商是那些在对冲基金交易失败不得不破产时替他们承担这份风险的投行。由于2008年的金融危机,多方面的风险现在通常被分散承担,不再是一个投行承担一个基金的风险,而是多家投行共同承担某一家基金交易失败的风险。

However, the level of current exposure the banks have is actually mind blowingly large, and I'll explain why.The fund who took the most prominent short position against GameStop in the media is Melvin Capital.

但现在这些投行所面临的风险事实上大得令人震惊,我稍后就会解释。对GameStop做空规模最大的基金是梅尔文资本。

.Melvin Capital is one of the most known hedge funds that specialize in short selling. They have historically been very profitable for their clients, to the point that there is such a demand from investors (called limited partners in this situation) that the fund has turned away many clients in the past because they don't need them.

梅尔文资本是在做空领域名气最大的对冲基金。他们一直以来都给客户带来极高的利润,以至于他们的投资者(在这种情况下称为有限合伙人)要求这家基金拒绝很多其他客户,因为不需要他们。

This led to a rise in copycat funds who essentially just copy everything that Melvin does and get people who want to invest with Melvin but can't to invest with them.

于是有很多抄袭他们的基金,梅尔文资本做什么这些基金就跟着做什么,好让那些想要买梅尔文基金却买不到的投资者也能赚钱。

So if Melvin's risk is absorbed by 2 or 3 banks acting as prime brokers for Melvin, the counterparty risk for the trades made by Melvin actually spreads out to increase exposure to potentially every large investment bank which acts as a prime broker for hedge funds, because if they don't have exposure to Melvin's risk, they likely have exposure to other funds which copy Melvin.

所以假如梅尔文资本的风险被两到三家为它担任主经纪商的投行承担了,类似交易的风险事实上会影响到每一个为对冲基金担任主经纪商的投行身上,因为就算他们没有面对梅尔文资本的风险,他们也很可能会面临那些模仿梅尔文资本的基金带来的风险。

But the story doesn't stop there. Because the price squeeze on the GameStop short sellers is enormous and theoretically infinite, GameStop stock is essentially just a money printer which has continually rising value in the market. Because the value of the equity continues to increase, GameStop shareholders are able to borrow more and more money against GameStop stock on margin through their brokers.

但是故事讲到这里还没完。由于对GameStop空头的逼空规模庞大到几乎无限,GameStop这支股基本上就是个在市场上不断升值的印钞机。由于其持有者股份的价值不断上升,GameStop又可以通过经纪商来抵押自己的股份用于融资。

Recognizing the financial reasons why this trade has gone so successfully in their favor, many of these traders are now using either more of their money or more money borrowed against GameStop stock (which is effectively a money printer) to also buy up stock in other heavily shorted companies to also apply pressure to those short sellers.

在意识到这笔有利可图的生意背后的原因之后,这些经纪商自己也开始花自己的钱,或是用GameStop的股票去抵押融资,来买入与GameStop类似的被严重做空的公司的股票,继续对那些空头施加压力。

So the situation is quickly becoming one where the short sellers cannot cover even their position in GameStop let alone all of their other short positions because they just don't have enough money.

所以情况很快变成了那些空头手里的钱连自己在GameStop的仓位都平不了,更不用说其他被他们做空的公司的仓位了。

As long as the stock holders continue to hold, the short sellers will not be able to meet their obligation, the value of the stock will continue to increase, the amount of money that can be borrowed against GameStop stock will increase, that borrowed money will then be used to further increase the pressure on other short sellers.

只要持股的人不卖,空头就没办法履行之前的合约,股价就会接着上涨,拿GameStop的股票抵押借来的钱就能更多,而这些借来的钱又会被用来给其他空头施压。

And with so many short squeeze situations simultaneously happening, it is likely that every single bank who acts as a prime broker for these different short sellers who are sold short on different stocks has exposure to all of this risk. Risk that they cannot even cover themselves. So the end result of all of this is likely going to be that every single investment bank in the country with exposure to this risk, which could be every single investment bank in the country, is forcibly liquidated.

并且随着市场上有越来越多的逼空交易同时发生,很有可能市场上每一个为对冲基金担保的投行都会暴露在这种风险之下,而他们就算把自己赔进去可能也赔不完。所以最终的结局可能会是全国的每一家投行都暴露在这种风险之下,并且被迫执行破产。

It's an even worse situation for the banks than the housing crash because in 2008 their level of exposure was actually limited, in this situation it is theoretically unlimited.

对于那些投行来说,这甚至比次贷危机的情况还要糟糕,因为在2008年他们面临的风险事实上还是有限的,而这次理论上是无限的。

Check all of the big investment bank stocks, they've all been down for several days in a row. At this point in the game, it seems very likely that they're going straight into the ground. Power to the players.

看看几家大投行的股票吧,最近都已经连着跌了好几天了。在这种时候,很有可能他们会一跌到底。权力最终要归于玩家。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


uoftsuxalot
The public is pissed, no more bailouts

公众已经被惹恼了,不能再容忍政府给紧急援助了

Overthemoon64
So I’m all for sticking it to the man, but isn’t a collapse of the financial system worse than 2008...bad?

虽然我支持像男人一样挺过去,但金融系统崩溃得比2008年还厉害听起来是不是……不太好啊?

StarchRunner
Fuck ‘em.

去他们的吧。

They undid regulations for their greed. Shorters wrecked many a company. Just watch the 80s movie Other People’s Money with Danny Devito.

为了一己私欲,他们解除了法规的约束。空头们毁了太多公司。看看丹尼德维托演的电影《金钱太保》吧。

Banking used to be only 5% of our economy, with making stuff and farming being much higher. What is it now? 25%? Financial wizardry bullshit.

银行业曾经只占我们经济的5%,农业和制造业则高得多。现在占多少?25%?剩下全是金融行业的巫术。

2008? Is that where they privatized the gains and socialized the losses?

2008年?他们不是在那年把盈利私有化,把损失公有化的吗?

Fuck ‘em till they bleed.

把他们干到流血。

AnotherWarGamer
The discussion on food pricing was very interesting. The farmer gets almost nothing, and the middle man takes the vast majority of the price paid. From grain to bread the mark up is like 50 times. And beef farmers are only getting a dollar something a pound. There is no real marker anymore, just a lot of middle men doing nothing.

关于粮价的一些讨论非常有趣。农民们几乎什么也拿不到,而中间商则能拿到农产品价格的大头。从谷子到面包,价格涨了大概50倍。而那些养肉牛的农民则每磅肉只能赚一刀多一点。现在已经没有真的市场了,只有一群占着茅坑不拉屎的中间商。

VirtualMarzipan537
I think so.

确实如此。

But I suppose if you are going to build a building on rotten foundations it's best if it collapses when there is as few floors built and as few people moved in as possible.

但我认为假如你要在一片腐烂的地面上建大楼,你肯定希望在这栋楼倒塌的时候,建成的层数越低,里面的人越少越好。

This could happen down the line anyway when more things are tied to it causing an even bigger problem.

这种事情总是要发生的,但与之关联的事情越多,问题就越大。

They are going to be trading water futures etc soon who knows what else could be affected if this happens in 10 years instead.

他们都要把水做成期权去交易了,所以要是这种事情10年后发生的话谁知道会有多少人受影响。

arcadiangenesis
Obviously yes, but the whole premise is that you have to go through bad times in order to create good times. You have to drag the current system away kicking and screaming in order to replace it with something better. (Or worse, who knows.)

显然会很糟,但前提是你得挺过困难的时代才能创造好时代。你得把现在的体制拖走才能换成更好的体制(说不定更坏,谁知道呢)

Kallamez
It's bad for everyone, specially fat cats, instead of everything else which is bad for everyone except the fat cats. I say, burn it all down.

假如崩溃的话对谁都没好处,但对富人尤其没好处;但不崩溃的话,除了对富人,对谁都没好处。所以要我说就都烧了吧。

Exactly. We have literally nothing to lose. Nothing. No houses and so many even have no job. Fuck these billionaires, fuck the while system of inequality they created and burn the whole fucking thing to the ground.

没错。我们没有什么可以失去的。什么也没有。没有房子,甚至有的人都没有工作。去他妈的亿万富翁,去他妈的这个不平等的体制,让我们把整个体制都烧成灰。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


BenCelotil
Complete collapse is disastrous, and yet its the only way anything will change for the better in the long term.

完全的崩溃会是灾难性的,但也是想要在长期获得改善的话唯一的选择。

Minor "collapses" and "corrections" always somehow end up benefiting those at the top while everyone on the bottom gets shat on even more.

小规模的“崩溃”和“修正”,到最终永远都只是为那些金字塔尖的人带来利益,而塔底的人越过越糟。

The only way to change the system is tear the whole thing down, bring everyone down to ground level, and then rebuild using some of the good ideas we've come up with in the last few years.

改变体制的唯一方法就是把整个体制都烧成灰,把每个人都拽到同一层次,然后用最近几年我们想到的一些好主意来重建。

And ignore the militant capitalists who insist on recreating the same damn system that fucked us to this point.

别管那些想要重建把我们搞成这个样子的体制的军事资本家们。

PrrrromotionGiven1
Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. You can expect similar crashes to 2008 on a roughly 10-year cycle - perhaps more frequently - unless Wall Street and banks are brought to heel and forcibly made to stop gambling with other people's money.

舍不得孩子套不着狼啊。除非华尔街和大银行输得彻彻底底,不再用别人的钱去赌博,否则以后像2008年这样的金融危机肯定会10年来一次——甚至更短。

Astalon18
This collapse is in fact a good collapse. It will remove all the rotten foundation leaving us only good.

这种崩溃是好的崩溃。会把所有腐烂的基础都一扫而空,只留下好的。

We should thank wallstreetbet for their efforts in making the world a better place.

我们应该感谢WSB版的努力,为我们带来了更美好的世界。

Snipechan
No wonder the media is going apeshit trying to discredit, blame, and attack the private retail investors buying and holding GME. Hedge funds don't gamble with their own money, they have clients who expect a cash return. This event could end up being one of the largest wealth transfers of all time. Depends on who is left holding the inflated stocks at the end.

怪不得媒体就算出尽洋相也要对那些买了GME股票的散户大肆抹黑,污蔑,攻击。对冲基金赌博时用的不是他们自己的钱,他们有一群等着收现金利息的客户。这个事件最终可能会成为有史以来最大规模的财富转移。当然取决于这些股票最终是烂在谁的手里。

Honestly, if this collapses the financial system, they had it coming. The information about the insanely risky short-selling was public information. All it took was for people to read the market data and then share that info on social media. Get reddit/4chan involved and they'll nuke the economy from orbit for the lulz.

说真的,假如这能给金融系统带来崩溃的话,他们活该。关于这种疯狂的风险极高的卖空行为的一切信息都是公共信息,人们只需要花点时间看看市场数据,在社交媒体上分享一下信息。把reddit或是4chan上的老哥们卷进来,他们可以给整个经济体来个轨道轰炸,只为了找点乐子。

Avogadro_seed
Our covid crash alone is already worse than 2008 for all the non-elite people.

新冠疫情对我们的冲击,对于那些非精英的人们来说已经比2008年要糟了。

This is just bringing the system down further. (and it's good)

这只是在把整个体制往下拉得更深一些。(并且是好事)

SofaKingWe_toddit
Definitely worse for the general public than the rich though, I have no doubt they are insulated from this.

但我觉得对于大众造成的伤害肯定比对富人要严重,我毫不怀疑他们有手段把自己隔离出来。

Docaroo
It's crazy isn't it? The brokers like robin hood and the hedge funds engaged in open illegal market fraud this week by trying to artificially tank the stock price. They don't care because the repercussions are pathetic. They have lost $70 billion dollars this year already on all these short plays so why does it matter if they get fined $100 million?

很疯狂,不是吗?就在这星期,罗宾汉这类交易商和对冲基金为了把股价压下来,不惜进行公开的市场非法诈骗。他们才不在乎,因为罚金少得可怜。他们今年已经因为这些做空投机赔了700亿美元了,所以就算再罚一亿美元又能怎样呢?

Best part is the price tanking didn't even work and they are still absolutely fucked and running out of even illegal things to try.

最搞笑的是压价竟然还没压成功,并且他们仍然彻底走投无路了,甚至连违法的路子也没几个能用的了。

AntiTrollSquad
Yes, this is a nuke and they are trying to defuse it, hopefully they won't be able to do so. Fuck hedge funds and shorters.

没错,这就是一颗核弹,并且他们正在试着拆弹。希望他们拆不下来。去他妈的对冲基金和空头。

75thAltToday
Big .Gov will apply a "Fix®". It's only a question of what stupid 'solution' they attempt.

大政府会来擦屁股的。问题只在于他们会采取怎样愚蠢的解决方案。

The Big Bail-In: Everyone's assets/deposits ("Hoarding") will be confiscated and applied to support the banks.

方案1,全民总援助:每个人的资产/存款(“私藏”)都要充公,拿去给银行。

"Printers go brrrrrrr": Germany-1923 and Zimbabwe-grade hyperinflation.

方案2,印钞印个爽:1923年的德国和今天的津巴布韦级别的超级通胀。

Regardless; this is the end of the "Financial Flash Mob": The Cyber-Patriot Act will be rammed into 'law' before Valentine's Day.

不论如何,“金融飞贼”的终章一定会是这样:网络爱国者法案在情人节之前就飞速变成法律。

chickin_liddle
So what does this mean for the less-than-average, lower class American who has no direct stake in the stock game? Higher interest rates on borrowing in the future? This is the part I don't understand - the effect this will have on me, the little "poors" worker bee.

所以这一切对于一个不到平均值的,低阶层的,在股市里没有直接利益的普通美国人来说意味着什么呢?以后借钱的利率会更高吗?我不懂的就是这方面——这一切对我,可怜的工蜂,造成的影响。

MrD3a7h
If this is an accurate read on the situation, and I am a dipshit who doesn't know if it is, then presumably a 2008-style recession. And given how shaky the economy is right now due to COVID, it could get ugly.

虽然我判断不了,但假如这篇文章对形势解读得正确的话,那很可能是和2008年差不多的衰落。鉴于现在新冠疫情导致的经济不稳定,后果可能会很糟。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Avogadro_seed
it could get ugly.

引用:“后果可能会很糟。”

it is* gonna get ugly

后果【就是会】很糟。

this is the collapse, we're never going back to normal after this.

崩溃就要来了,我们以后再也回不到常态了。

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