十年后世界变化的速度将超乎我们的想象
正文翻译
Futurists from the 20th century predicted that labor saving devices would make leisure abundant. According to the great economist John Maynard Keynes, the big challenge would be that…
“For the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.”
— John Maynard Keynes (1930)
20世纪的未来学家预言，节省劳力的设备将使休闲变得丰富多彩，根据伟大的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的说法，未来最大的挑战将是.....
“自人类诞生以来，人类将第一次面临一个真正的、永恒的问题——如何利用自己从紧迫的经济忧虑中解脱出来的自由，如何利用科学和复利为自己赢得的闲暇时间，明智地、愉快地好好生活。”——约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (1930年)
例如，一位研究者将公元前1万年到2019年的世界生产总值绘制成图表，得出了这个图表：
我们现在生活在曲线的后半部分，这是个大问题，因为后半段的感官和行为方式根本不同。
请注意，这种差异几乎几乎看不出来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
To put this chart in context, 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what is now. Said differently, for someone who is about 40 today, when they’re 60 in 2040, the rate of paradigm change will be 4x what it is now. They will experience a year of change (by today’s standards) in three months. For someone who is 10 today, when they’re 60, they’ll experience a year of change in 11 days.
To summarize the profundity of this 10-year doubling rate, Kurzweil says…
“We won’t experience one hundred years of technological advance in the twenty-first century; we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (again, when measured by today’s rate of progress), or about one thousand times greater than what was achieved in the twentieth century.”
把这个图表放在大背景下，20年后，变化率将是现在的4倍，换句话说，对于今天40岁左右的人来说，到2040年他们60岁时，范式改变的速度将是现在的4倍，以今天为标准，他们将在三个月内经历一年的变化，对于一个今天10岁的人来说，当他们60岁的时候，他们将在11天内经历一年的变。
为总结这10年翻番速度的深刻性，库兹韦尔说：
"我们不会在21世纪经历100年的技术进步，我们将见证2万年的进步（同样，这也是按今天的进步速度来衡量），或者说比20世纪的进步大约1000倍。”
库兹韦尔的关键事件大致参考、反映了人类编纂的最重要历史事件的参考书 (《大英百科全书》、美国自然历史博物馆、卡尔·萨根《宇宙历法》等)。
这个视频体现了摩尔定律对科技行业的重要性……
"如果说硅谷有心跳，那就是摩尔定律"——罗博·恩代尔
这就引出了一个问题：
如果20年后范式改变的速度是现在的4倍，这意味着什么？
Futurists from the 20th century predicted that labor saving devices would make leisure abundant. According to the great economist John Maynard Keynes, the big challenge would be that…
“For the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.”
— John Maynard Keynes (1930)
20世纪的未来学家预言，节省劳力的设备将使休闲变得丰富多彩，根据伟大的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的说法，未来最大的挑战将是.....
“自人类诞生以来，人类将第一次面临一个真正的、永恒的问题——如何利用自己从紧迫的经济忧虑中解脱出来的自由，如何利用科学和复利为自己赢得的闲暇时间，明智地、愉快地好好生活。”——约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (1930年)
Fast forward almost a century later.
Things didn’t quite go as expected. This quote from a modern researcher captures the current ethos:
“Rather than being bored to death, our actual challenge is to avoid anxiety attacks, psychotic breakdowns, heart attacks, and strokes resulting from being accelerated to death.”
— Geoffrey West
Rather than inhabiting a world of time wealth, we’re inhabiting a world of time poverty. Rather than feeling the luxury of time freedom, we’re feeling the burden of constant hurry.
快进到近一个世纪之后。
事情并没有像预期的那样发展，这句引自一位现代研究人员的话显示了我们目前的处境：
“我们真正的挑战不是无聊到死，而是要避免焦虑发作、精神崩溃、心脏病发作和加速至死的中风。”
Things didn’t quite go as expected. This quote from a modern researcher captures the current ethos:
“Rather than being bored to death, our actual challenge is to avoid anxiety attacks, psychotic breakdowns, heart attacks, and strokes resulting from being accelerated to death.”
— Geoffrey West
Rather than inhabiting a world of time wealth, we’re inhabiting a world of time poverty. Rather than feeling the luxury of time freedom, we’re feeling the burden of constant hurry.
快进到近一个世纪之后。
事情并没有像预期的那样发展，这句引自一位现代研究人员的话显示了我们目前的处境：
“我们真正的挑战不是无聊到死，而是要避免焦虑发作、精神崩溃、心脏病发作和加速至死的中风。”
ー 杰弗里·韦斯特
我们生活在一个时间贫乏的世界，而不是生活在一个时间富裕的世界，我们没有感受到时间自由的奢侈，而是感受到了持续匆忙的负担。
我们生活在一个时间贫乏的世界，而不是生活在一个时间富裕的世界，我们没有感受到时间自由的奢侈，而是感受到了持续匆忙的负担。
What happened?
How did things turn out the exact opposite of what we were expecting?
More importantly, will the pace of life keep accelerating? And if it does, what are the implications (ie — can most people even cope)? What should we be doing now as knowledge workers to prepare for this future?
So, I spent over 100 hours reading the top 10 books related to these questions across the disciplines of sociology, technology, physics, evolution, business, and systems theory.
怎么回事呢？
事情怎么会和我们预期的完全相反 ？
更重要的是，人们的生活节奏会不断加快吗？如果是这样的话，其影响 ( 即大多数人甚至能够应付 ) 是什么？
作为知识工作者，我们现在应该做些什么来为这个未来做准备？
因此，我花了超过100个小时阅读与这些问题相关的前10本书，横跨社会学、技术、物理学、进化论、商业和系统理论等学科。
How did things turn out the exact opposite of what we were expecting?
More importantly, will the pace of life keep accelerating? And if it does, what are the implications (ie — can most people even cope)? What should we be doing now as knowledge workers to prepare for this future?
So, I spent over 100 hours reading the top 10 books related to these questions across the disciplines of sociology, technology, physics, evolution, business, and systems theory.
怎么回事呢？
事情怎么会和我们预期的完全相反 ？
更重要的是，人们的生活节奏会不断加快吗？如果是这样的话，其影响 ( 即大多数人甚至能够应付 ) 是什么？
作为知识工作者，我们现在应该做些什么来为这个未来做准备？
因此，我花了超过100个小时阅读与这些问题相关的前10本书，横跨社会学、技术、物理学、进化论、商业和系统理论等学科。
I read Pressed for Time: The Acceleration of Life in Digital Capitalism by sociologist Judy Wajcman. I read The Sociology of Speed: Digital, Organizational, and Social Temporalities by ten sociologists. I read Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies by physicist turned polymath Geoffrey West. I reread The Singularity Is Near by technologist and futurist Ray Kurzweil. I read The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature by journalist Matt Ridley, PhD. I read about the Law Of Requisite Variety pioneered in the field of cybernetics. Finally, I read Competing Against Time: How Time-Based Competition is Reshaping Global Markets by management consultant George Stalk and Clockspeed: Winning Industry Control In The Age Of Temporary Advantage by MIT researcher Charles Fine.
While each of these researchers provide a different perspective, they point to the same fundamental root cause…
我读了社会学家朱迪 · 瓦克曼的《时间紧迫: 数字资本主义生活的加速》；我读了由十位社会学家撰写的《速度社会学：数字化、组织化和社会暂时性》，我读了《尺度:有机体、城市和公司中生命、增长和死亡的普遍规律》，作者是物理学家出身的博学家杰弗里 · 韦斯特，我重读了技术专家和未来学家雷·库兹韦尔的《奇点迫近》，我读了记者马特 · 里德利博士的《红皇后：性与人性的进化》，我读了在控制论领域具有开创性意义的《必要变化律》，我读了管理学顾问乔治·史塔克的《与时间竞争：基于时间的竞争如何重塑全球市场》，最后，我还读了麻省理工学院研究员查尔斯·费恩的《 时钟速度：在临时优势时代赢得行业控制权》
虽然这些研究者各自提供了不同的视角，但他们都指出了相同的根本原因......
While each of these researchers provide a different perspective, they point to the same fundamental root cause…
我读了社会学家朱迪 · 瓦克曼的《时间紧迫: 数字资本主义生活的加速》；我读了由十位社会学家撰写的《速度社会学：数字化、组织化和社会暂时性》，我读了《尺度:有机体、城市和公司中生命、增长和死亡的普遍规律》，作者是物理学家出身的博学家杰弗里 · 韦斯特，我重读了技术专家和未来学家雷·库兹韦尔的《奇点迫近》，我读了记者马特 · 里德利博士的《红皇后：性与人性的进化》，我读了在控制论领域具有开创性意义的《必要变化律》，我读了管理学顾问乔治·史塔克的《与时间竞争：基于时间的竞争如何重塑全球市场》，最后，我还读了麻省理工学院研究员查尔斯·费恩的《 时钟速度：在临时优势时代赢得行业控制权》
虽然这些研究者各自提供了不同的视角，但他们都指出了相同的根本原因......
Time Is Accelerating Because Of The Red Queen Effect
At a fundamental level, life on earth must compete to stay alive. Predators and prey are in a never-ending race to evolve new abilities to avoid extinction. Rabbits that evolve longer ears to hear foxes survive more. Foxes that develop stronger legs to run faster catch more rabbits and don’t starve. And so on.
Matt Ridley, author of The Red Queen Effect, explains the tit for tat like this…
If a competitor makes an improvement, you must make an equal or greater improvement just to stay neck-and-neck with them. Stay the same and you fall behind.
Lauren Bacall said it even better…
“Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing world.”
— Lauren Bacall
时间加速是因为“红皇后效应”（The Red Queen Effect）
从根本上说，地球上的生命必须为生存而竞争，捕食者和猎物在永无止境的竞争中进化出新的能力以避免灭绝。
兔子进化出更长的耳朵以听到狐狸的声音，就能因此活得更久，狐狸进化出更强壮的腿，跑得更快，就能抓到更多的兔子，不会饿死，以此类推。
《 红皇后效应 》的作者马特 · 雷德利这样解释这种针锋相对的行......
如果竞争对手有所改进，你必须做出同等或更大的改进，才能与他们并驾齐驱，保持不变，你就会落后。
劳伦 · 巴考尔说的更好：
" 在这个瞬息万变的世界里，站在原地不动是倒退的最快方式。"
——劳伦·巴考尔
At a fundamental level, life on earth must compete to stay alive. Predators and prey are in a never-ending race to evolve new abilities to avoid extinction. Rabbits that evolve longer ears to hear foxes survive more. Foxes that develop stronger legs to run faster catch more rabbits and don’t starve. And so on.
Matt Ridley, author of The Red Queen Effect, explains the tit for tat like this…
If a competitor makes an improvement, you must make an equal or greater improvement just to stay neck-and-neck with them. Stay the same and you fall behind.
Lauren Bacall said it even better…
“Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing world.”
— Lauren Bacall
时间加速是因为“红皇后效应”（The Red Queen Effect）
从根本上说，地球上的生命必须为生存而竞争，捕食者和猎物在永无止境的竞争中进化出新的能力以避免灭绝。
兔子进化出更长的耳朵以听到狐狸的声音，就能因此活得更久，狐狸进化出更强壮的腿，跑得更快，就能抓到更多的兔子，不会饿死，以此类推。
《 红皇后效应 》的作者马特 · 雷德利这样解释这种针锋相对的行......
如果竞争对手有所改进，你必须做出同等或更大的改进，才能与他们并驾齐驱，保持不变，你就会落后。
劳伦 · 巴考尔说的更好：
" 在这个瞬息万变的世界里，站在原地不动是倒退的最快方式。"
——劳伦·巴考尔
In other words, evolution is a double-edged sword. On one hand, innovations increase survival. On the other hand, they also increase competition, which reduces survival.
Evolution does not rest on its laurels. It accelerates.
Enter humans.
With humans, we see a shift from competing based on biology to competing based on ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.).
换句话说，进化是一把双刃剑。
一方面，变化增加了生存几率，另一方面，它们也增加了竞争，从而降低了生存率。
进化不会安于现状，而是持续加速。
看回人类世界。
在人类身上，我们看到了从基于生物学的竞争到基于观念 (文化、战略、技术等) 的竞争的转变。
Evolution does not rest on its laurels. It accelerates.
Enter humans.
With humans, we see a shift from competing based on biology to competing based on ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.).
换句话说，进化是一把双刃剑。
一方面，变化增加了生存几率，另一方面，它们也增加了竞争，从而降低了生存率。
进化不会安于现状，而是持续加速。
看回人类世界。
在人类身上，我们看到了从基于生物学的竞争到基于观念 (文化、战略、技术等) 的竞争的转变。
For example…
Companies compete for top talent. Employees compete for open positions.
Employees compete to move up the corporate ladder.
Companies compete for investors. Investors compete for the best startups.
Companies compete against each other via their products and services.
Scientists compete against each other for publication, citation, awards, and funding.
Everyone compe
tes for attention
比如说：
公司争夺顶尖人才，员工争夺空缺职位。
员工们竞相攀登公司的阶梯。
公司争夺投资者，投资者争夺最好的创业公司。
公司通过他们的产品和服务相互竞争。
科学家们为了出版、引用、奖项和资金而相互竞争。
每个人都在争夺关注。
Companies compete for top talent. Employees compete for open positions.
Employees compete to move up the corporate ladder.
Companies compete for investors. Investors compete for the best startups.
Companies compete against each other via their products and services.
Scientists compete against each other for publication, citation, awards, and funding.
Everyone compe
tes for attention
比如说：
公司争夺顶尖人才，员工争夺空缺职位。
员工们竞相攀登公司的阶梯。
公司争夺投资者，投资者争夺最好的创业公司。
公司通过他们的产品和服务相互竞争。
科学家们为了出版、引用、奖项和资金而相互竞争。
每个人都在争夺关注。
Just like evolution, when we evolve new technologies, things don’t slow down and become a utopia. Rather things get faster and more competitive.
Now, here’s where the big difference between biology and ideas is. While human biology evolves so slowly we don’t notice, ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.) evolve so quickly, we can’t keep up. Idea evolution is like biological evolution on steroids.
In other words, in a moment when many are already feeling overwhelmed by change, things are about to take off even faster. 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what it is now. Things will keep accelerating from there, and in 40 years, it will be 16x (more on these numbers later).
就像进化一样，当我们进化出新的技术时，事情不会慢下来，变成一个乌托邦，相反，事情变得越来越快，竞争越来越激烈。
生物进化和思想进化的最大区别就在这里，虽然人类的生物进化如此缓慢，但我们没有注意到，思想(文化、战略、技术等) 进化得如此之快，我们跟不上。
思想的进化就像是打了鸡血的生物进化。
换句话说，在许多人已经感到被变化压倒的时刻，事情将以更快的速度发展。
20年后，变化率将是现在的4倍，事情将不断加速发展，40年后，将达到16倍 ( 稍后将详细讨论这些数字 )。
Now, here’s where the big difference between biology and ideas is. While human biology evolves so slowly we don’t notice, ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.) evolve so quickly, we can’t keep up. Idea evolution is like biological evolution on steroids.
In other words, in a moment when many are already feeling overwhelmed by change, things are about to take off even faster. 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what it is now. Things will keep accelerating from there, and in 40 years, it will be 16x (more on these numbers later).
就像进化一样，当我们进化出新的技术时，事情不会慢下来，变成一个乌托邦，相反，事情变得越来越快，竞争越来越激烈。
生物进化和思想进化的最大区别就在这里，虽然人类的生物进化如此缓慢，但我们没有注意到，思想(文化、战略、技术等) 进化得如此之快，我们跟不上。
思想的进化就像是打了鸡血的生物进化。
换句话说，在许多人已经感到被变化压倒的时刻，事情将以更快的速度发展。
20年后，变化率将是现在的4倍，事情将不断加速发展，40年后，将达到16倍 ( 稍后将详细讨论这些数字 )。
What does this mean?
For many, 2020 felt like five years packed into one…
Historic pandemic
Historic social movement (Black Lives Matter)
Historic stimulus
Historic wildfires
Historic election
Historic stock market high
Historic technology breakthroughs (Alphafold / GPT-3 / Quantum Supremacy, etc)
这意味着什么？
对许多人来说，2020年给人的感觉就像五年的时间挤在了一起......
历史性的大流行
历史性的社会运动 ( 黑命贵 )
历史性的刺激措施
历史性的森林业火
历史性的选举
历史性的股市高点
历史性的技术突破 ( AlphaFold 算法/人工智能语言模型GPT-3/量子霸权等)
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
For many, 2020 felt like five years packed into one…
Historic pandemic
Historic social movement (Black Lives Matter)
Historic stimulus
Historic wildfires
Historic election
Historic stock market high
Historic technology breakthroughs (Alphafold / GPT-3 / Quantum Supremacy, etc)
这意味着什么？
对许多人来说，2020年给人的感觉就像五年的时间挤在了一起......
历史性的大流行
历史性的社会运动 ( 黑命贵 )
历史性的刺激措施
历史性的森林业火
历史性的选举
历史性的股市高点
历史性的技术突破 ( AlphaFold 算法/人工智能语言模型GPT-3/量子霸权等)
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
We saw once-in-a-generation events in nearly every sphere of life. Each of these events rippled throughout society leading to unpredictable second-order effects which upended our long-held beliefs about media, democracy, business, and citizenship to name a few. Our emotions went from positive to negative extremes as we faced unprecedented opportunities and challenges. We had to fundamentally rethink our lives, relationships, and work.
Here’s the thing though… 2020 isn’t a temporary blip before things go back to normal. It is the kickoff to an unprecedented acceleration that few have considered, let alone prepared for.
我们在几乎每个领域都看到了百年难一遇的事件，每一个事件都波及整个社会，导致不可预测的二阶效应，颠覆了我们长期以来对媒体、民主、商业和公民权等方面的信念。
我们面临前所未有的机遇和挑战，我们的情绪从积极走向了消极的极端，我们不得不从根本上重新思考我们的生活、关系和工作。
但问题是，2020年并不是一切恢复正常之前的一个短暂现象，而是一个前所未有的加速的开端，很少有人考虑到这一点，更不用说为之做准备了。
Here’s the thing though… 2020 isn’t a temporary blip before things go back to normal. It is the kickoff to an unprecedented acceleration that few have considered, let alone prepared for.
我们在几乎每个领域都看到了百年难一遇的事件，每一个事件都波及整个社会，导致不可预测的二阶效应，颠覆了我们长期以来对媒体、民主、商业和公民权等方面的信念。
我们面临前所未有的机遇和挑战，我们的情绪从积极走向了消极的极端，我们不得不从根本上重新思考我们的生活、关系和工作。
但问题是，2020年并不是一切恢复正常之前的一个短暂现象，而是一个前所未有的加速的开端，很少有人考虑到这一点，更不用说为之做准备了。
If time is like a treadmill, 2020 was running. The near-future will be an all out sprint.
How do we keep up?
To answer this question, let’s talk about…
The Coming Acceleration Shock
“If somebody describes the world of the mid-twenty-first century to you and it doesn’t sound like science fiction, it is certainly false. We cannot be sure of the specifics; change itself is the only certainty.”
— Yuval Noah Harari
如果说时间就像跑步机，那么2020年就是在跑步，近期的未来将是一场全力冲刺。
我们怎样才能跟上？
为了回答这个问题，我们来谈谈....
即将到来的加速冲击
“如果有人向你描述了二十一世纪中叶的世界，而且它听起来不像科幻小说，那么它肯定是错误的，我们无法确定具体细节，变化本身是唯一确定的。”
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How do we keep up?
To answer this question, let’s talk about…
The Coming Acceleration Shock
“If somebody describes the world of the mid-twenty-first century to you and it doesn’t sound like science fiction, it is certainly false. We cannot be sure of the specifics; change itself is the only certainty.”
— Yuval Noah Harari
如果说时间就像跑步机，那么2020年就是在跑步，近期的未来将是一场全力冲刺。
我们怎样才能跟上？
为了回答这个问题，我们来谈谈....
即将到来的加速冲击
“如果有人向你描述了二十一世纪中叶的世界，而且它听起来不像科幻小说，那么它肯定是错误的，我们无法确定具体细节，变化本身是唯一确定的。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
ー赫拉利·诺亚·哈拉尔
While both biology and ideas evolve exponentially, exponential growth is fundamentally different at different stages of the curve. It starts off slowly, but when it hits the knee of the curve, it grows explosively and profoundly.
For example, one researcher charted the Gross World Product from 10,000 BCE to 2019 and came up with this chart…
We are now living in the second half of the curve. This is a big deal, because the second half feels and behaves in fundamentally different ways.
虽然生物进化和思想进化都是指数方式发展，但是指数增长在曲线的不同阶段有着根本的不同，它开始的时候很缓慢，当它到达曲线的拐点时，它就会爆发性地、深刻地增长。
While both biology and ideas evolve exponentially, exponential growth is fundamentally different at different stages of the curve. It starts off slowly, but when it hits the knee of the curve, it grows explosively and profoundly.
For example, one researcher charted the Gross World Product from 10,000 BCE to 2019 and came up with this chart…
We are now living in the second half of the curve. This is a big deal, because the second half feels and behaves in fundamentally different ways.
虽然生物进化和思想进化都是指数方式发展，但是指数增长在曲线的不同阶段有着根本的不同，它开始的时候很缓慢，当它到达曲线的拐点时，它就会爆发性地、深刻地增长。
例如，一位研究者将公元前1万年到2019年的世界生产总值绘制成图表，得出了这个图表：
我们现在生活在曲线的后半部分，这是个大问题，因为后半段的感官和行为方式根本不同。
Ray Kurzweil, the director of engineering at Google and arguably the world #1 futurist, breaks down what the second half of the exponential curve better than anyone else in his book, The Singularity Is Near.
Kurzweil’s basic premise is this…
“The future will be far more surprising than most people realize.”
The reason it’ll be more surprising, he argues, is, “because few observers have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating.” In other words, “an exponential curve looks like a straight line when examined for only a brief duration. As a result, even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, typically extrapolate the current pace of change over the next ten years or one hundred years to determine their expectations.”
雷·库兹韦尔，谷歌的工程总监，可以说是世界第一的未来学家，在他的《奇点迫近》一书中，对指数曲线的后半部分进行了比任何人都更好的分析。
库兹韦尔的基本前提是：
“未来将比大多数人意识到的更令人惊讶。”
他认为，之所以会更令人惊讶，是因为“很少有观察家真正内化了变化速度本身正在加快这一事实的含义。”换句话说，“一条指数曲线在短时间内看起来就像一条一条直线，因此，即使是老练的评论家，在考虑未来时，通常也只会推断出未来十年或一百年当前的变化速度，以符合他们的预期。”
Kurzweil’s basic premise is this…
“The future will be far more surprising than most people realize.”
The reason it’ll be more surprising, he argues, is, “because few observers have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating.” In other words, “an exponential curve looks like a straight line when examined for only a brief duration. As a result, even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, typically extrapolate the current pace of change over the next ten years or one hundred years to determine their expectations.”
雷·库兹韦尔，谷歌的工程总监，可以说是世界第一的未来学家，在他的《奇点迫近》一书中，对指数曲线的后半部分进行了比任何人都更好的分析。
库兹韦尔的基本前提是：
“未来将比大多数人意识到的更令人惊讶。”
他认为，之所以会更令人惊讶，是因为“很少有观察家真正内化了变化速度本身正在加快这一事实的含义。”换句话说，“一条指数曲线在短时间内看起来就像一条一条直线，因此，即使是老练的评论家，在考虑未来时，通常也只会推断出未来十年或一百年当前的变化速度，以符合他们的预期。”
Let’s break this down. When we look at a linear and exponential curve from a zoomed out perspective of more time, it’s easy to see the difference between the two curves…
However, when we zoom into a small duration, the differences look more like this. Notice that the difference is almost impossible to see.
我们来分析一下这个问题，当我们从更长的时间区间来看线性和指数曲线时，很容易看出两条曲线之间的差异……然而，当我们放大到一个小的持续时间段，差异看起来更像这样：
However, when we zoom into a small duration, the differences look more like this. Notice that the difference is almost impossible to see.
我们来分析一下这个问题，当我们从更长的时间区间来看线性和指数曲线时，很容易看出两条曲线之间的差异……然而，当我们放大到一个小的持续时间段，差异看起来更像这样：
请注意，这种差异几乎几乎看不出来。
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For example, I was born in 1981. When I think about the pace of change, it is hard for me to compare the change I experienced in my lifetime to the change experienced during 1940–1980. It’s like comparing apples to oranges. Furthermore, when I look at the last 40 years, major events blend together. The pace changes, but then I get used to it. It is hard to feel the exponential nature either way. Sure, I can intellectually understand exponential change, but I don’t feel it.
Things get really interesting when Kurzweil shares the implications of this insight. It is the most profound, yet underappreciated idea from the book…
举个例子，比如说，我是1981年出生的，当我思考变化的速度时，我很难将我一生中经历的变化与1940-1980年期间的变化进行比较，这就像把苹果和橘子进行比较一样。
当我回顾过去40年，重大事件交织在一起，节奏变了，但我很习惯于此，不管怎样，我们都很难感受到这种指数增长的本质，当然，我理智上能理解指数变化，但我感觉不到。
库兹韦尔分享了这一观点的含义，事情变得非常有趣，这是书中最深刻但未被充分理解的观点。
Things get really interesting when Kurzweil shares the implications of this insight. It is the most profound, yet underappreciated idea from the book…
举个例子，比如说，我是1981年出生的，当我思考变化的速度时，我很难将我一生中经历的变化与1940-1980年期间的变化进行比较，这就像把苹果和橘子进行比较一样。
当我回顾过去40年，重大事件交织在一起，节奏变了，但我很习惯于此，不管怎样，我们都很难感受到这种指数增长的本质，当然，我理智上能理解指数变化，但我感觉不到。
库兹韦尔分享了这一观点的含义，事情变得非常有趣，这是书中最深刻但未被充分理解的观点。
Introducing The 10-Year Rule
“My models show that we are doubling the paradigm-shift rate every decade.”
— Ray Kurzweil
This is the most interesting line in Kurzweil’s book in my opinion. This statement is profound, because it means the following…
"十年法则"
“我的模型显示，每十年，我们的范式转换率就会翻一番。”—— 库兹韦尔
在我看来，这是库兹韦尔书中最有意思的一句话，这句话意义深远，因为它意味着：
“My models show that we are doubling the paradigm-shift rate every decade.”
— Ray Kurzweil
This is the most interesting line in Kurzweil’s book in my opinion. This statement is profound, because it means the following…
"十年法则"
“我的模型显示，每十年，我们的范式转换率就会翻一番。”—— 库兹韦尔
在我看来，这是库兹韦尔书中最有意思的一句话，这句话意义深远，因为它意味着：
To put this chart in context, 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what is now. Said differently, for someone who is about 40 today, when they’re 60 in 2040, the rate of paradigm change will be 4x what it is now. They will experience a year of change (by today’s standards) in three months. For someone who is 10 today, when they’re 60, they’ll experience a year of change in 11 days.
To summarize the profundity of this 10-year doubling rate, Kurzweil says…
“We won’t experience one hundred years of technological advance in the twenty-first century; we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (again, when measured by today’s rate of progress), or about one thousand times greater than what was achieved in the twentieth century.”
把这个图表放在大背景下，20年后，变化率将是现在的4倍，换句话说，对于今天40岁左右的人来说，到2040年他们60岁时，范式改变的速度将是现在的4倍，以今天为标准，他们将在三个月内经历一年的变化，对于一个今天10岁的人来说，当他们60岁的时候，他们将在11天内经历一年的变。
为总结这10年翻番速度的深刻性，库兹韦尔说：
"我们不会在21世纪经历100年的技术进步，我们将见证2万年的进步（同样，这也是按今天的进步速度来衡量），或者说比20世纪的进步大约1000倍。”
Let that sink in for a second.
So what exactly is a paradigm and how did Kurzweil come up with this rate?
To create the 10-Year Rule, Kurzweil plotted the largest milestones of biological and technological development on a single graph…
Kurzweil’s key events roughly mirror reference books that have compiled the most important historical events (Encyclopaedia Britannica, the American Museum of Natural History, Carl Sagan’s “cosmic calendar,” and others).
让我们好好想一想。
那么，究竟为什么是这样一个转变范式，库兹韦尔是如何得出这个速度的？
为了创造 "十年法则"，库兹韦尔将生物和技术发展的最大里程碑绘制在一张图上：
So what exactly is a paradigm and how did Kurzweil come up with this rate?
To create the 10-Year Rule, Kurzweil plotted the largest milestones of biological and technological development on a single graph…
Kurzweil’s key events roughly mirror reference books that have compiled the most important historical events (Encyclopaedia Britannica, the American Museum of Natural History, Carl Sagan’s “cosmic calendar,” and others).
让我们好好想一想。
那么，究竟为什么是这样一个转变范式，库兹韦尔是如何得出这个速度的？
为了创造 "十年法则"，库兹韦尔将生物和技术发展的最大里程碑绘制在一张图上：
库兹韦尔的关键事件大致参考、反映了人类编纂的最重要历史事件的参考书 (《大英百科全书》、美国自然历史博物馆、卡尔·萨根《宇宙历法》等)。
Of course, because there is a trend in the past, it doesn’t mean it will continue in the future. But, the way I see it, if a trend has existed on Earth for a billion years, it’s worth at least planning for the possibility that it will happen in the next 20 years.
And if you want to see how ridiculously predictable technological progress has been for the last 60 years, I recommend watching this video. It is awe-inspiring…
This quote captures the importance of Moore’s Law to the technology industry…
“If Silicon Valley has a heartbeat, it’s Moore’s Law,” — Rob Enderle
This all begs the question…
What would it mean to have the rate of paradigm changing events be 4x what it is now in 20 years?
当然，过去有一种趋势，并不一定意味着未来会继续下去，但是，在我看来，如果一个趋势已经在地球上存在了10亿年，那么至少值得为它在未来20年内发生的可能性做打算。
如果你想知道在过去的60年里，技术进步是多么的不可思议，我推荐你看这个视频，令人惊叹……
And if you want to see how ridiculously predictable technological progress has been for the last 60 years, I recommend watching this video. It is awe-inspiring…
This quote captures the importance of Moore’s Law to the technology industry…
“If Silicon Valley has a heartbeat, it’s Moore’s Law,” — Rob Enderle
This all begs the question…
What would it mean to have the rate of paradigm changing events be 4x what it is now in 20 years?
当然，过去有一种趋势，并不一定意味着未来会继续下去，但是，在我看来，如果一个趋势已经在地球上存在了10亿年，那么至少值得为它在未来20年内发生的可能性做打算。
如果你想知道在过去的60年里，技术进步是多么的不可思议，我推荐你看这个视频，令人惊叹……
这个视频体现了摩尔定律对科技行业的重要性……
"如果说硅谷有心跳，那就是摩尔定律"——罗博·恩代尔
这就引出了一个问题：
如果20年后范式改变的速度是现在的4倍，这意味着什么？
How To Prepare For The Coming Acceleration Shock
“When an industry is subjected to an important innovation, that industry typically feels a significant uptick in the overall clockspeed.”
— Charles Fine (MIT)
As I mentioned, the rapid evolution of human culture, ideas, strategies, and technology is a double-edged sword. On one hand, innovations increase efficiency. On the other hand, it also increases competition.
如何为即将到来的加速冲击做好准备
“当一个行业面临一项重大创新时，这个行业通常会感到自己的整体发展速度会有显著提升。”——查尔斯·费恩
正如我上面提到的，人类文化、思想、战略、技术的快速发展是一把双刃剑，一方面，创新可以提高效率，另一方面，它也增加了竞争。
“When an industry is subjected to an important innovation, that industry typically feels a significant uptick in the overall clockspeed.”
— Charles Fine (MIT)
As I mentioned, the rapid evolution of human culture, ideas, strategies, and technology is a double-edged sword. On one hand, innovations increase efficiency. On the other hand, it also increases competition.
如何为即将到来的加速冲击做好准备
“当一个行业面临一项重大创新时，这个行业通常会感到自己的整体发展速度会有显著提升。”——查尔斯·费恩
正如我上面提到的，人类文化、思想、战略、技术的快速发展是一把双刃剑，一方面，创新可以提高效率，另一方面，它也增加了竞争。
This happens on three levels:
Race against people. People and companies are using their efficiency gains to double down and gain further advantage thus increasing the competition even more. For example, in Silicon Valley, the epicenter of the tech, many of the smartest and wealthiest people in the world are working 60–80 hours per week and making sacrifices in their families, health and sleep in order to do so. Large salaries are put toward nannies, drivers, cleaners, and everything such that time at work can be maximized.
这发生在三个层面：
1. 人与人之间的竞争
个人和公司都在利用他们的效率提升来加倍获得进一步的优势，从而更加加剧了竞争。
例如，在科技中心硅谷，许多世界上最聪明、最富有的人每周工作60-80小时，并为此在家庭、健康和睡眠方面做出牺牲，大量的薪酬被花在了保姆、司机、清洁工和其他一切能让工作时间最大化的事情上。
Race against people. People and companies are using their efficiency gains to double down and gain further advantage thus increasing the competition even more. For example, in Silicon Valley, the epicenter of the tech, many of the smartest and wealthiest people in the world are working 60–80 hours per week and making sacrifices in their families, health and sleep in order to do so. Large salaries are put toward nannies, drivers, cleaners, and everything such that time at work can be maximized.
这发生在三个层面：
1. 人与人之间的竞争
个人和公司都在利用他们的效率提升来加倍获得进一步的优势，从而更加加剧了竞争。
例如，在科技中心硅谷，许多世界上最聪明、最富有的人每周工作60-80小时，并为此在家庭、健康和睡眠方面做出牺牲，大量的薪酬被花在了保姆、司机、清洁工和其他一切能让工作时间最大化的事情上。
Race against machines. To compete on costs, companies are using robots and AI to eliminate jobs. In the economics literature, this is known as the race against machines. Many technologies automate old jobs and create the opportunities for new jobs. But, to take advantage of these opportunities, individuals must be able to “race” faster than machines by learning new skills. We see the harbingers of automation with cashierless stores (3.6M jobs in US) and autonomous vehicles (2M truck drivers in US) and robofactories (12M+ manufacturing jobs in US). These three job categories alone account for over 10% of the US workforce, and they’re almost guaranteed to precipitously downsize in the next 10 years.
2. 与机器赛跑
为了在成本上竞争，企业利用机器人和人工智能来消除工作岗位，在经济学上，这被称为与机器的竞赛。
技术使旧的工作自动化，并为新的工作创造机会，但是，为了利用这些机会，个人必须能够通过学习新技能，比机器更快地 "竞赛"。
我们从无人商店（ 美国有360万个收银工作岗位）和自主汽车（美国有200万个卡车司机）以及机器人工厂（美国有1200多万个制造业工作岗位）看到了自动化的先兆，这三类工作岗位就占了美国劳动力的10%以上，而且几乎可以肯定会在未来10年内会断崖式地缩减。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
2. 与机器赛跑
为了在成本上竞争，企业利用机器人和人工智能来消除工作岗位，在经济学上，这被称为与机器的竞赛。
技术使旧的工作自动化，并为新的工作创造机会，但是，为了利用这些机会，个人必须能够通过学习新技能，比机器更快地 "竞赛"。
我们从无人商店（ 美国有360万个收银工作岗位）和自主汽车（美国有200万个卡车司机）以及机器人工厂（美国有1200多万个制造业工作岗位）看到了自动化的先兆，这三类工作岗位就占了美国劳动力的10%以上，而且几乎可以肯定会在未来10年内会断崖式地缩减。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Race against the world. Digitization has taken extreme competition to a whole other level. Rather than competing against the best in your local area, you’re competing against the best in the world. In other words, rather than competing against a small number of people, you’re competing against 1,000x the number of people. The result of global competition is that competition is exponentially more fierce and winner-take-all.
3. 与世界赛跑
数字化将极端竞争提升到了另一个层面，与其说是与当地的佼佼者竞争，不如说是与世界上的佼佼者竞争。
换句话说，与其说你在和一小部分人竞争，不如说你在和1000倍的人竞争，全球竞争的结果是，竞争成倍地激烈，赢家通吃。
3. 与世界赛跑
数字化将极端竞争提升到了另一个层面，与其说是与当地的佼佼者竞争，不如说是与世界上的佼佼者竞争。
换句话说，与其说你在和一小部分人竞争，不如说你在和1000倍的人竞争，全球竞争的结果是，竞争成倍地激烈，赢家通吃。
What does the extreme competition mean?
On the positive side, this increasing competition creates incredible innovation. As consumers, we have people racing to serve needs we didn’t even realize we had faster, cheaper, and better.
On the negative side, as workers, we are the ones racing to serve customers. It feels like we’re on a treadmill and that if we get off that treadmill to smell the roses of life for too long, we may fall irreparably behind. If there isn’t always a direct threat we can see, there is always the implied threat. For example, there is now a large literature of megacompanies who were disrupted by garage startups because their innovation rate slowed and their hubris swelled.
极端竞争意味着什么?
从积极的方面来看，日益激烈的竞争创造了令人难以置信的创新，作为消费者，人们竞相满足我们的需求，而我们甚至没有意识到我们拥有更快、更便宜、更好的服务。
消极的一面是，作为劳动者，我们要争先恐后地为顾客服务，这感觉就像我们在跑步机上，如果我们离开跑步机上去享受美好生活的时间太久，我们可能会无可挽回地落在后面，即使我们不能看到直接的威胁，那其中也一定有隐含的威胁，例如，现在有大量关于大型公司被车库创业公司颠覆的案例，为他们的创新速度变慢，自大情绪膨胀。
On the positive side, this increasing competition creates incredible innovation. As consumers, we have people racing to serve needs we didn’t even realize we had faster, cheaper, and better.
On the negative side, as workers, we are the ones racing to serve customers. It feels like we’re on a treadmill and that if we get off that treadmill to smell the roses of life for too long, we may fall irreparably behind. If there isn’t always a direct threat we can see, there is always the implied threat. For example, there is now a large literature of megacompanies who were disrupted by garage startups because their innovation rate slowed and their hubris swelled.
极端竞争意味着什么?
从积极的方面来看，日益激烈的竞争创造了令人难以置信的创新，作为消费者，人们竞相满足我们的需求，而我们甚至没有意识到我们拥有更快、更便宜、更好的服务。
消极的一面是，作为劳动者，我们要争先恐后地为顾客服务，这感觉就像我们在跑步机上，如果我们离开跑步机上去享受美好生活的时间太久，我们可能会无可挽回地落在后面，即使我们不能看到直接的威胁，那其中也一定有隐含的威胁，例如，现在有大量关于大型公司被车库创业公司颠覆的案例，为他们的创新速度变慢，自大情绪膨胀。
Matt Ridley sums up the situation in this quote…
“One of the peculiar features of history is that time always erodes advantage. Every invention sooner or later leads to a counterinvention. Every success contains the seeds of its own overthrow. Every hegemony comes to an end. Evolutionary history is no different. Progress and success are always relative… In history and in evolution, progress is always a futile, Sisyphean struggle to stay in the same relative place by getting ever better at things.”
— Matt Ridley
马特瑞德用这句话总结了这种情况：
" 历史的一个特点是，时间总是侵蚀优势，每一项发明迟早都会导致相反的发明，每一次成功都包含着其自身被推翻的种子，每一个霸权都会走向终结，这便是进化，进步和成功总是相对的...... 在历史和进化中，进步，即通过在某件事情上做得越来越好而停留在一个相对位置上，永远是徒劳的、挣扎的。"
“One of the peculiar features of history is that time always erodes advantage. Every invention sooner or later leads to a counterinvention. Every success contains the seeds of its own overthrow. Every hegemony comes to an end. Evolutionary history is no different. Progress and success are always relative… In history and in evolution, progress is always a futile, Sisyphean struggle to stay in the same relative place by getting ever better at things.”
— Matt Ridley
马特瑞德用这句话总结了这种情况：
" 历史的一个特点是，时间总是侵蚀优势，每一项发明迟早都会导致相反的发明，每一次成功都包含着其自身被推翻的种子，每一个霸权都会走向终结，这便是进化，进步和成功总是相对的...... 在历史和进化中，进步，即通过在某件事情上做得越来越好而停留在一个相对位置上，永远是徒劳的、挣扎的。"
评论翻译
Allan Milne Lees
Ironically, I think the future is much easier to predict and much simpler than this article imagines. It's always exceptionally unwise to extrapolate into the future in a straight line - that's why we're not living in a Jetsons world today. When we look back over history we see one rather interesting phenomenon: as people become agitated by the pace of social change they yearn for simple answers to increasingly complex questions they can't actually understand. So they seek a "strong leader" who seems strong because he offers them easy-to-grasp soundbites they can chant to their hearts' content. But this "strong leader" is obviously a charlatan, and eventually policies arising from incompetence will make things worse. Now "strong leaders" always blame third parties for the woes of the world, and so this blame intensifies. Finally, we get armed conflict. This kills a lot of people, sets the clock back, and makes the immediate future much easier to understand: we have to attempt to rebuild what we've just destroyed. And so for a while people focus on simple tasks like trying to find food and shelter. But then we get better at normality, and the cycle begins again. We're actually already into the Time of Horrors, albeit at the beginning. The next several decades won't be about learning to live with work-related pressures. It will be about trying to survive the crazies who believe killing other people is the way to take back control and be great again.
讽刺的是，我认为未来比本文想象的要容易预测得多，也简单得多。
直线推断未来总是非常不明智的——这就是为什么我们今天不是生活在一个《杰特森一家》的世界里。
当我们回顾历史的时候，我们会看到一个相当有趣的现象：
当人们因社会变革的步伐而焦躁不安的时候，他们渴望得到越来越复杂的问题的简单答案，而这些问题他们实际上并不能理解。
于是，他们寻求一个看似强大的 "强势领导人 " ，他为他们提供了容易理解、能让他们心满意足的解释，但这种 "强势领导人 "显然是骗子，最终因无能而产生的政策会让事情变得更糟。
"强势领导人 "总是把世界的困境归咎于第三方，于是这种指责就会愈演愈烈，最后，我们就会发生武装冲突，这会杀死很多人，让时间倒流，并让眼前的未来变得更容易理解：我们必须尝试重建我们刚刚摧毁的东西，有那么一段时间，人们会专注于简单的任务，比如寻找食物和避难所，当我们变得更加正常时，周期循环又开始了。
事实上我们已经进入了恐怖时代，尽管只是个开始，接下来的几十年不会是学习如何与工作相关的压力共存的问题，而是要努力设法在那些相信杀戮他人是夺回控制权，相信这样能再次伟大的疯狂分子手下生存下来。
Ironically, I think the future is much easier to predict and much simpler than this article imagines. It's always exceptionally unwise to extrapolate into the future in a straight line - that's why we're not living in a Jetsons world today. When we look back over history we see one rather interesting phenomenon: as people become agitated by the pace of social change they yearn for simple answers to increasingly complex questions they can't actually understand. So they seek a "strong leader" who seems strong because he offers them easy-to-grasp soundbites they can chant to their hearts' content. But this "strong leader" is obviously a charlatan, and eventually policies arising from incompetence will make things worse. Now "strong leaders" always blame third parties for the woes of the world, and so this blame intensifies. Finally, we get armed conflict. This kills a lot of people, sets the clock back, and makes the immediate future much easier to understand: we have to attempt to rebuild what we've just destroyed. And so for a while people focus on simple tasks like trying to find food and shelter. But then we get better at normality, and the cycle begins again. We're actually already into the Time of Horrors, albeit at the beginning. The next several decades won't be about learning to live with work-related pressures. It will be about trying to survive the crazies who believe killing other people is the way to take back control and be great again.
讽刺的是，我认为未来比本文想象的要容易预测得多，也简单得多。
直线推断未来总是非常不明智的——这就是为什么我们今天不是生活在一个《杰特森一家》的世界里。
当我们回顾历史的时候，我们会看到一个相当有趣的现象：
当人们因社会变革的步伐而焦躁不安的时候，他们渴望得到越来越复杂的问题的简单答案，而这些问题他们实际上并不能理解。
于是，他们寻求一个看似强大的 "强势领导人 " ，他为他们提供了容易理解、能让他们心满意足的解释，但这种 "强势领导人 "显然是骗子，最终因无能而产生的政策会让事情变得更糟。
"强势领导人 "总是把世界的困境归咎于第三方，于是这种指责就会愈演愈烈，最后，我们就会发生武装冲突，这会杀死很多人，让时间倒流，并让眼前的未来变得更容易理解：我们必须尝试重建我们刚刚摧毁的东西，有那么一段时间，人们会专注于简单的任务，比如寻找食物和避难所，当我们变得更加正常时，周期循环又开始了。
事实上我们已经进入了恐怖时代，尽管只是个开始，接下来的几十年不会是学习如何与工作相关的压力共存的问题，而是要努力设法在那些相信杀戮他人是夺回控制权，相信这样能再次伟大的疯狂分子手下生存下来。
Rob Wiest
The one book you should add to your reading list is Ishmael. Then you would see that the exponential growth and competition model is our big mistake. We are not competing with the Earth, we live on it. We can't win a war against the animals we co-evolved with. We are not the gods we conceive ourselves as.
你应该把《以实玛利》这本书加到你的书单上，那么你就会发现，指数增长和竞争模式是我们的一大错误。
我们并不是在与地球竞争，我们生活在地球上，我们无法战胜与我们共同进化的动物，我们并不是自己想象中的神。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The one book you should add to your reading list is Ishmael. Then you would see that the exponential growth and competition model is our big mistake. We are not competing with the Earth, we live on it. We can't win a war against the animals we co-evolved with. We are not the gods we conceive ourselves as.
你应该把《以实玛利》这本书加到你的书单上，那么你就会发现，指数增长和竞争模式是我们的一大错误。
我们并不是在与地球竞争，我们生活在地球上，我们无法战胜与我们共同进化的动物，我们并不是自己想象中的神。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Alex Harding
One point I would like to make is that evolution is not entirely a competition based model that we have come to learn through everything from economics to social systems theory. I like to think that evolution is more of a symbiotic relationship…...
我想说的一点是，进化并不完全是一个基于竞争的模型，经济学到社会系统理论，我们都能从中了解到这种模型，但我更愿意认为进化是一种共生关系......
One point I would like to make is that evolution is not entirely a competition based model that we have come to learn through everything from economics to social systems theory. I like to think that evolution is more of a symbiotic relationship…...
我想说的一点是，进化并不完全是一个基于竞争的模型，经济学到社会系统理论，我们都能从中了解到这种模型，但我更愿意认为进化是一种共生关系......
Wonsuk Choi
Absolutely incredible piece. This article informed me of how important it is to start learning now to keep up with the pace in the future. Thank you!
非常的令人难以置信，这篇文章告诉我，现在就开始学习，跟上未来的步伐是多么重要，谢谢 ！
Absolutely incredible piece. This article informed me of how important it is to start learning now to keep up with the pace in the future. Thank you!
非常的令人难以置信，这篇文章告诉我，现在就开始学习，跟上未来的步伐是多么重要，谢谢 ！
Simon McLaren
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has really given more breath into what evolution and nature is capable of doing. Nature reacts with the same force to which humans are accelerating in evolution.
最近的COVID-19大流行确实让我们更多地了解了进化和自然的能力，大自然的反应和人类在进化中加速的反应是一样的。
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has really given more breath into what evolution and nature is capable of doing. Nature reacts with the same force to which humans are accelerating in evolution.
最近的COVID-19大流行确实让我们更多地了解了进化和自然的能力，大自然的反应和人类在进化中加速的反应是一样的。
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