科学家称，如果全球变暖导致冰架坍塌，将有“难以想象的数量”的水涌入海洋
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Scientists say 'unimaginable amounts' of water will pour into oceans if ice shelves collapse amid global heating
-“Ice shelves are important buffers, preventing glaciers on land from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to sea level rise,” said Ella Gilbert, who co-authored the study.
科学家称，如果全球变暖导致冰架坍塌，将有“难以想象的数量”的水涌入海洋
——“冰架是重要的缓冲地带，它阻止陆地上的冰川自由流入海洋，导致海平面上升，”该研究的合著者艾拉·吉尔伯特说。
-“Ice shelves are important buffers, preventing glaciers on land from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to sea level rise,” said Ella Gilbert, who co-authored the study.
科学家称，如果全球变暖导致冰架坍塌，将有“难以想象的数量”的水涌入海洋
——“冰架是重要的缓冲地带，它阻止陆地上的冰川自由流入海洋，导致海平面上升，”该研究的合著者艾拉·吉尔伯特说。
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A new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that one-third of ice shelves surrounding Antarctica could collapse if temperatures hit 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, resulting in “unimaginable amounts” of water being released into the sea.
发表在《地球物理研究快报》杂志上的一项新研究发现，如果温度比工业革命前的水平高出4摄氏度，南极洲周围三分之一的冰架可能坍塌，导致“难以想象的数量”的水被排入海洋。
发表在《地球物理研究快报》杂志上的一项新研究发现，如果温度比工业革命前的水平高出4摄氏度，南极洲周围三分之一的冰架可能坍塌，导致“难以想象的数量”的水被排入海洋。
Ice shelves, which are vast floating sheets of ice that connect to land, largely surround Antarctica.
冰架是连接陆地的巨大浮冰，主要围绕着南极洲。
冰架是连接陆地的巨大浮冰，主要围绕着南极洲。
“Ice shelves are important buffers, preventing glaciers on land from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to sea level rise,” Ella Gilbert, a research scientist in the University of Reading’s meteorology department who co-authored the study, said. “When they collapse it’s like a giant cork being removed from a bottle, allowing unimaginable amounts of water from glaciers to pour into the sea.”
“冰架是重要的缓冲带，它阻止陆地上的冰川自由流入海洋，导致海平面上升，”雷丁大学气象系的研究科学家、该研究的合著者艾拉·吉尔伯特说。“当冰川崩塌时，就像一个巨大的软木塞从瓶子里被移开，让难以想象的数量的冰川水流入大海。”
“冰架是重要的缓冲带，它阻止陆地上的冰川自由流入海洋，导致海平面上升，”雷丁大学气象系的研究科学家、该研究的合著者艾拉·吉尔伯特说。“当冰川崩塌时，就像一个巨大的软木塞从瓶子里被移开，让难以想象的数量的冰川水流入大海。”
One-third of these ice shelves is about the equivalent of half a million square kilometers. The surge in water from their collapse would cause sea levels to rise.
这些冰架的三分之一大约相当于50万平方公里。崩塌带来的洪水会导致海平面上升。
这些冰架的三分之一大约相当于50万平方公里。崩塌带来的洪水会导致海平面上升。
The study doesn’t cite an estimate of the level of rise if could cause, but Gilbert said, “My gut feeling is for 4C it could potentially contribute tens of centimetres if they did collapse.”
这项研究没有引用对上升水平的估计，但吉尔伯特说：“我的直觉是，如果上升4摄氏度，如果它们真的坍塌了，可能会造成几十厘米的海平面升高。”
这项研究没有引用对上升水平的估计，但吉尔伯特说：“我的直觉是，如果上升4摄氏度，如果它们真的坍塌了，可能会造成几十厘米的海平面升高。”
To put this in perspective, NASA calculates the average sea level rise at 3.3 millimeters per year, which only equals 0.33 centimeters, making even a 10-centimeter increase a significant jump.
为了更好地理解这一点，美国宇航局计算出海平面每年平均上升3.3毫米，仅等于0.33厘米，所以即使是10厘米的上升也是一个显著的跳跃。
为了更好地理解这一点，美国宇航局计算出海平面每年平均上升3.3毫米，仅等于0.33厘米，所以即使是10厘米的上升也是一个显著的跳跃。
A rise in sea levels contributes to the erosion of coastlines, more powerful storms and flooding, and the destruction of ecosystems and habitats for animals both on land and in the sea.
海平面上升会导致海岸线的侵蚀、更猛烈的风暴和洪水，以及生态系统和海洋动物栖息地的破坏。
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海平面上升会导致海岸线的侵蚀、更猛烈的风暴和洪水，以及生态系统和海洋动物栖息地的破坏。
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The study is meant to highlight the need for limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
这项研究旨在强调，有必要将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前水平高出2摄氏度以内，正如2015年《巴黎气候协议》所概述的那样。
这项研究旨在强调，有必要将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前水平高出2摄氏度以内，正如2015年《巴黎气候协议》所概述的那样。
Former President Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris agreement on June 1, 2017. President Biden signed an executive order having the U.S. rejoin the Paris agreement on his first day in office.
前总统特朗普于2017年6月1日让美国退出《巴黎协定》。后来拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，要求美国在他上任的第一天重新加入巴黎协议。
前总统特朗普于2017年6月1日让美国退出《巴黎协定》。后来拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，要求美国在他上任的第一天重新加入巴黎协议。
“If temperatures continue to rise at current rates we may lose more Antarctic ice shelves in the coming decades,” Gilbert said. “Limiting warming will not just be good for Antarctica – preserving ice shelves means less global sea level rise, and that’s good for us all.”
“如果气温继续以目前的速度上升，我们可能会在未来几十年失去更多的南极冰架，”吉尔伯特说。“限制变暖不仅对南极洲有好处——保存冰架意味着减少全球海平面上升，这对我们所有人都有好处。”
“如果气温继续以目前的速度上升，我们可能会在未来几十年失去更多的南极冰架，”吉尔伯特说。“限制变暖不仅对南极洲有好处——保存冰架意味着减少全球海平面上升，这对我们所有人都有好处。”
评论翻译
MusselMemory1909
No country will do anything except set small emission goals for what might as well be a 100 years
没有哪个国家会采取任何行动，除了为可能是100年的时间设定小的排放目标
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No country will do anything except set small emission goals for what might as well be a 100 years
没有哪个国家会采取任何行动，除了为可能是100年的时间设定小的排放目标
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ddoubles
Global population is at 7.9 billion. Projections for 2100 is 10.9 billion. To think we can reduce these emission when large part of the world is just entering modern life and industrialization, is extremely optimistic. Nothing is stopping the growth train. Even if we make a green shift, fossil fuel will be a big part of the mix for decades.
全球人口为79亿。到2100年预计为109亿。认为我们可以在世界大部分地区刚刚进入现代生活和工业化的时候减少这些排放，是非常乐观的。没有什么能阻止发展的车轮。即使我们转向绿色能源，在未来几十年里，化石燃料仍将是其中的重要组成部分。
Global population is at 7.9 billion. Projections for 2100 is 10.9 billion. To think we can reduce these emission when large part of the world is just entering modern life and industrialization, is extremely optimistic. Nothing is stopping the growth train. Even if we make a green shift, fossil fuel will be a big part of the mix for decades.
全球人口为79亿。到2100年预计为109亿。认为我们可以在世界大部分地区刚刚进入现代生活和工业化的时候减少这些排放，是非常乐观的。没有什么能阻止发展的车轮。即使我们转向绿色能源，在未来几十年里，化石燃料仍将是其中的重要组成部分。
MusselMemory1909
The rates of emission is disproportionate. Wealthier parts of the world like North America or Europe emit the most while continents like Africa which have huge populations barely emit much
I think we can transition to more green energy like Nuclear and renewables if the governments of the world wanted to commit to it
排放速度不成比例。世界上较富裕的地区，如北美或欧洲，排放最多，而像非洲这样人口众多的大陆，排放却很少
我认为，如果世界各国政府都愿意投入使用核能和可再生能源，我们就能转向更绿色的能源
The rates of emission is disproportionate. Wealthier parts of the world like North America or Europe emit the most while continents like Africa which have huge populations barely emit much
I think we can transition to more green energy like Nuclear and renewables if the governments of the world wanted to commit to it
排放速度不成比例。世界上较富裕的地区，如北美或欧洲，排放最多，而像非洲这样人口众多的大陆，排放却很少
我认为，如果世界各国政府都愿意投入使用核能和可再生能源，我们就能转向更绿色的能源
ItzDaReaper
Countries with most CO2 emissions 1. China 2. USA 3. India 4. Russia
In terms of plastics and non reusable wastes most of that comes from developing countries. In most countries tap water is undrinkable and everyone only drink bottled water. I’ve traveled the world and seen it myself. Easy to blame “western” countries. But the issue is totally global and no country is innocent.
二氧化碳排放量最多的国家1、中国2、美国3、印度4、俄罗斯
就塑料和不可重复利用的废物而言，大部分来自发展中国家。在大多数国家，自来水是不能饮用的，每个人都只喝瓶装水。我周游世界，亲眼目睹过。指责“西方”国家很容易。但这个问题是全球性的，没有一个国家是无辜的。
Countries with most CO2 emissions 1. China 2. USA 3. India 4. Russia
In terms of plastics and non reusable wastes most of that comes from developing countries. In most countries tap water is undrinkable and everyone only drink bottled water. I’ve traveled the world and seen it myself. Easy to blame “western” countries. But the issue is totally global and no country is innocent.
二氧化碳排放量最多的国家1、中国2、美国3、印度4、俄罗斯
就塑料和不可重复利用的废物而言，大部分来自发展中国家。在大多数国家，自来水是不能饮用的，每个人都只喝瓶装水。我周游世界，亲眼目睹过。指责“西方”国家很容易。但这个问题是全球性的，没有一个国家是无辜的。
labink
Not only that, it’s a pretty good bet that oceanic conveyers that distribute the warm water around will shut down which could precipitate much colder temps. Also desalination of the oceans would be disastrous for ocean life.
不仅如此，可以肯定的是，将温暖的海水输送到周围的洋流将会中断，从而导致更低的温度。此外，海水淡化对海洋生物来说是灾难性的。
Not only that, it’s a pretty good bet that oceanic conveyers that distribute the warm water around will shut down which could precipitate much colder temps. Also desalination of the oceans would be disastrous for ocean life.
不仅如此，可以肯定的是，将温暖的海水输送到周围的洋流将会中断，从而导致更低的温度。此外，海水淡化对海洋生物来说是灾难性的。
throwawaytrumper
There is approximately 8.4 million cubic km of fresh water in all forms on earth (including lakes, rivers, ice caps, glaciers, etc). There is 1.3 billion cubic km of salt water in our oceans. Even if we stripped all fresh water and melted all ice and snow into our oceans, salinity levels would be changed less than 1 percent. In reality, it’s a far smaller fraction of fresh water that will end up in our oceans, there will certainly be massive problems from a few certain areas being desalinated but the ocean as a whole will have almost identical salinity. Just a trivial point but I thought it would be helpful to have the numbers, I agree with essentially everything else you’re saying.
地球上大约有840万立方千米的各种形式的淡水（包括湖泊、河流、冰盖、冰川等等）。我们的海洋中有13亿立方千米的盐水。即使我们剥去所有的淡水，把所有的冰和雪融化到海洋中，盐度水平的变化也不到1%。事实上，最终进入海洋的淡水要少得多。一些特定区域的海水淡化肯定会带来巨大的问题，但整个海洋的盐度几乎是相同的。这是一个很琐碎的问题，但是我认为有数字会很有帮助，我基本上同意你说的其他一切。
There is approximately 8.4 million cubic km of fresh water in all forms on earth (including lakes, rivers, ice caps, glaciers, etc). There is 1.3 billion cubic km of salt water in our oceans. Even if we stripped all fresh water and melted all ice and snow into our oceans, salinity levels would be changed less than 1 percent. In reality, it’s a far smaller fraction of fresh water that will end up in our oceans, there will certainly be massive problems from a few certain areas being desalinated but the ocean as a whole will have almost identical salinity. Just a trivial point but I thought it would be helpful to have the numbers, I agree with essentially everything else you’re saying.
地球上大约有840万立方千米的各种形式的淡水（包括湖泊、河流、冰盖、冰川等等）。我们的海洋中有13亿立方千米的盐水。即使我们剥去所有的淡水，把所有的冰和雪融化到海洋中，盐度水平的变化也不到1%。事实上，最终进入海洋的淡水要少得多。一些特定区域的海水淡化肯定会带来巨大的问题，但整个海洋的盐度几乎是相同的。这是一个很琐碎的问题，但是我认为有数字会很有帮助，我基本上同意你说的其他一切。
labink
And yet scientists have been saying that it wouldn’t take much to disrupt a sudden dissolution of the salinity of the oceans to disrupt the ocean conveyer system.
然而，科学家们一直在说，破坏海洋盐度的突然溶解就能破坏洋流系统。
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And yet scientists have been saying that it wouldn’t take much to disrupt a sudden dissolution of the salinity of the oceans to disrupt the ocean conveyer system.
然而，科学家们一直在说，破坏海洋盐度的突然溶解就能破坏洋流系统。
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throwawaytrumper
I’m no expert, I’ve only spent a little time reading about it, I’ll try to briefly lay out why that is. Thermohaline circulation is the process by which salinity changes cause large masses of water to drop to lower levels of the ocean. For the Atlantic Ocean, the current conveying warm water to the North Atlantic is called the Gulf Stream. Trade winds largely drive the current from southern areas north. In the North Sea, strong winds evaporate the surface of the ocean, creating very cold and saltier water (as only the water evaporates, leaving dissolved salts behind). The evaporation also makes this water exceptionally cold. These big cold areas of ocean then sink down in massive columns, eventually driving the gulf current southward.
The problem happens as the Arctic ice cap and Greenland melt, it’s not enough to alter macro ocean salinity in any real way but it’s enough that this freshwater can mix with these cold masses of dense salty water, making them less salty. Which makes them less dense. So they don’t sink with the volume to drive the gulf current properly, which weakens the whole engine.
Anyways, that’s how a bit of fresh water freezes Europe, potentially. The whole system is so complex that it’s tough to say when or if it will stop, but the Gulf Stream has been much weaker lately. I didn’t look at the pacific circulating current system for this example, because I wanted to be brief here. Please feel free to correct any errors.
我不是这方面的专家，我只花了一点时间读过这方面的内容，我会试着简要说明为什么会这样。温盐洋流是盐度变化导致大量的水下降到海洋较深深度的过程。对于大西洋来说，将温暖的海水输送到北大西洋的洋流叫做墨西哥湾流。信风主要驱使洋流从南部地区向北流动。在北海，强风蒸发了海洋表面，形成了非常寒冷和高盐度的水（因为只有水被蒸发了，留下了溶解的盐）。蒸发也使水变得异常寒冷。这些巨大寒冷的海洋区域然后以巨大的柱状下沉，最终推动墨西哥湾洋流南下。
随着北极冰帽和格陵兰岛的融化，这并不能真正改变大海洋的盐度，但足以使淡水与这些冰冷的高密度盐水混合，使它们的含盐量降低。这就降低了它们的密度。这样它们就不会随着体积的变化而下沉来驱动墨西哥湾洋流，这会削弱整个洋流动能。
不管怎样，这就是为什么少量的淡水可能会使欧洲结冰。整个洋流系统是如此复杂，很难说何时或是否会停止，但墨西哥湾流最近变得更弱了。在这个例子中，我没有考虑太平洋环流系统，因为我只想简短地说明一下。如果有任何错误，请随时修正。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I’m no expert, I’ve only spent a little time reading about it, I’ll try to briefly lay out why that is. Thermohaline circulation is the process by which salinity changes cause large masses of water to drop to lower levels of the ocean. For the Atlantic Ocean, the current conveying warm water to the North Atlantic is called the Gulf Stream. Trade winds largely drive the current from southern areas north. In the North Sea, strong winds evaporate the surface of the ocean, creating very cold and saltier water (as only the water evaporates, leaving dissolved salts behind). The evaporation also makes this water exceptionally cold. These big cold areas of ocean then sink down in massive columns, eventually driving the gulf current southward.
The problem happens as the Arctic ice cap and Greenland melt, it’s not enough to alter macro ocean salinity in any real way but it’s enough that this freshwater can mix with these cold masses of dense salty water, making them less salty. Which makes them less dense. So they don’t sink with the volume to drive the gulf current properly, which weakens the whole engine.
Anyways, that’s how a bit of fresh water freezes Europe, potentially. The whole system is so complex that it’s tough to say when or if it will stop, but the Gulf Stream has been much weaker lately. I didn’t look at the pacific circulating current system for this example, because I wanted to be brief here. Please feel free to correct any errors.
我不是这方面的专家，我只花了一点时间读过这方面的内容，我会试着简要说明为什么会这样。温盐洋流是盐度变化导致大量的水下降到海洋较深深度的过程。对于大西洋来说，将温暖的海水输送到北大西洋的洋流叫做墨西哥湾流。信风主要驱使洋流从南部地区向北流动。在北海，强风蒸发了海洋表面，形成了非常寒冷和高盐度的水（因为只有水被蒸发了，留下了溶解的盐）。蒸发也使水变得异常寒冷。这些巨大寒冷的海洋区域然后以巨大的柱状下沉，最终推动墨西哥湾洋流南下。
随着北极冰帽和格陵兰岛的融化，这并不能真正改变大海洋的盐度，但足以使淡水与这些冰冷的高密度盐水混合，使它们的含盐量降低。这就降低了它们的密度。这样它们就不会随着体积的变化而下沉来驱动墨西哥湾洋流，这会削弱整个洋流动能。
不管怎样，这就是为什么少量的淡水可能会使欧洲结冰。整个洋流系统是如此复杂，很难说何时或是否会停止，但墨西哥湾流最近变得更弱了。在这个例子中，我没有考虑太平洋环流系统，因为我只想简短地说明一下。如果有任何错误，请随时修正。
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labink
Yes. This is basically what I have been reading only you laid everything out much more succinctly than I did. Also, I have read that the ocean currents are also tied in together so that eventually the other oceans are effected. I believe that the currents are lixed in that ocean water from the Atlantic Ocean will circulate around the globe taking a year or two in its full circuit. Thanks for your posting.
是的。这基本上就是我读过的内容，只是你比我讲得更简洁。此外，我还读到洋流也会联系在一起，最终其他海洋也会受到影响。我相信这些洋流是相连的，所以大西洋的海水会绕着地球循环，整个循环需要一两年的时间。谢谢你的发帖。
Yes. This is basically what I have been reading only you laid everything out much more succinctly than I did. Also, I have read that the ocean currents are also tied in together so that eventually the other oceans are effected. I believe that the currents are lixed in that ocean water from the Atlantic Ocean will circulate around the globe taking a year or two in its full circuit. Thanks for your posting.
是的。这基本上就是我读过的内容，只是你比我讲得更简洁。此外，我还读到洋流也会联系在一起，最终其他海洋也会受到影响。我相信这些洋流是相连的，所以大西洋的海水会绕着地球循环，整个循环需要一两年的时间。谢谢你的发帖。
i-kith-for-gold
Can't scientists calculate how many liters of water those unimaginable amounts will be, and how much they will rise the water, and how much all of this will raise the temperature even more?
科学家们难道不能计算出这些难以想象的数量将会有多少升水，他们将会把水平面上升多少，以及所有这些会使温度上升多少吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Can't scientists calculate how many liters of water those unimaginable amounts will be, and how much they will rise the water, and how much all of this will raise the temperature even more?
科学家们难道不能计算出这些难以想象的数量将会有多少升水，他们将会把水平面上升多少，以及所有这些会使温度上升多少吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
BurnerAcc2020
Yes, they can. The projections of over 100 sea level rise experts from last year were of of 30 to 65 cm sea level rise by 2100 under the mildest warming scenario, and 63 cm to 130 cm under the unrestrained emissions scenario that leads to 4-5 C by 2100. The study in the article does not appear to contradict that - its author says that she thinks those ice shelves collapsing will raise the sea levels by tens of centimeters at 4 C, thus being in line with those estimates.
The melting will also keep going well past 2100 - according to the same experts, even the best-case scenario that requires massive societal change will see more melting by 2300 than by 2100 (at best 0.5 meters, at worst 2 meters) and the worst case one could be over 5 meters by then. Altogether, Greenland and Antarctica will be gradually melting for millennia into the future, although the difference between the ultimate outcome will be immense depending on how much higher the average temperature will be for most of that time.
As for the effects on temperatures, it's established that Greenland ice sheet melting entirely would raise the global temperatures by 0.13 C, and West Antarctica collapsing would raise them by 0.05 C, and neither are expected until centuries-to-millennia in the future.
In the near term, the biggest impact would be from the Arctic becoming completely ice-free in the summer: it's not discussed in the study above because it has no impact on sea level rise ( since it's all sea ice already) but its absence raises the temperatures by 0.2 degrees due to the loss of its large reflective area. It's generally expected to happen sometime this century, though the exact decade is very hard to predict. Regardless, that effect is already integrated into all up-to-date climate models.
不，他们能。去年，100多位研究海平面上升的专家预测，在最温和的变暖情景下，到2100年海平面将上升30至65厘米，在不限制排放情景下，到2100年海平面将上升63至130厘米，导致升温4至5摄氏度。这篇文章中的研究似乎并没有与这一观点相矛盾——它的作者说，她认为那些冰架的坍塌将使海平面在升温4摄氏度时上升几十厘米，因此与这些估计是一致的。
2100年后融化还将继续——同一位专家认为，即使是需要大规模社会变革的最好情况，到2300年也会比2100年融化更多（最好0.5米，最坏2米），到那时最坏的情况可能是海平面上升超过5米。总的来说，格陵兰岛和南极洲将在未来几千年里逐渐融化，尽管最终结果的差异将是巨大的，这取决于在这段时间里平均温度将升高多少。
至于对温度的影响，已经确定，格陵兰冰盖的完全融化将使全球气温上升0.13摄氏度，西南极洲的崩溃将使全球气温上升0.05摄氏度，而这两种情况都要到几百到几千年以后才会出现。
短期内，最大的影响将是北极在夏季完全无冰：在上面的研究中没有讨论这个问题，因为它对海平面上升没有影响（因为它已经都是海冰了），但是它的消失会使温度上升0.2度，因为失去了大面积的反射区。人们普遍预计它将在本世纪某个时候发生，尽管具体在哪个十年很难预测。不管怎样，这种影响已经被整合到所有最新的气候模型中了。
Yes, they can. The projections of over 100 sea level rise experts from last year were of of 30 to 65 cm sea level rise by 2100 under the mildest warming scenario, and 63 cm to 130 cm under the unrestrained emissions scenario that leads to 4-5 C by 2100. The study in the article does not appear to contradict that - its author says that she thinks those ice shelves collapsing will raise the sea levels by tens of centimeters at 4 C, thus being in line with those estimates.
The melting will also keep going well past 2100 - according to the same experts, even the best-case scenario that requires massive societal change will see more melting by 2300 than by 2100 (at best 0.5 meters, at worst 2 meters) and the worst case one could be over 5 meters by then. Altogether, Greenland and Antarctica will be gradually melting for millennia into the future, although the difference between the ultimate outcome will be immense depending on how much higher the average temperature will be for most of that time.
As for the effects on temperatures, it's established that Greenland ice sheet melting entirely would raise the global temperatures by 0.13 C, and West Antarctica collapsing would raise them by 0.05 C, and neither are expected until centuries-to-millennia in the future.
In the near term, the biggest impact would be from the Arctic becoming completely ice-free in the summer: it's not discussed in the study above because it has no impact on sea level rise ( since it's all sea ice already) but its absence raises the temperatures by 0.2 degrees due to the loss of its large reflective area. It's generally expected to happen sometime this century, though the exact decade is very hard to predict. Regardless, that effect is already integrated into all up-to-date climate models.
不，他们能。去年，100多位研究海平面上升的专家预测，在最温和的变暖情景下，到2100年海平面将上升30至65厘米，在不限制排放情景下，到2100年海平面将上升63至130厘米，导致升温4至5摄氏度。这篇文章中的研究似乎并没有与这一观点相矛盾——它的作者说，她认为那些冰架的坍塌将使海平面在升温4摄氏度时上升几十厘米，因此与这些估计是一致的。
2100年后融化还将继续——同一位专家认为，即使是需要大规模社会变革的最好情况，到2300年也会比2100年融化更多（最好0.5米，最坏2米），到那时最坏的情况可能是海平面上升超过5米。总的来说，格陵兰岛和南极洲将在未来几千年里逐渐融化，尽管最终结果的差异将是巨大的，这取决于在这段时间里平均温度将升高多少。
至于对温度的影响，已经确定，格陵兰冰盖的完全融化将使全球气温上升0.13摄氏度，西南极洲的崩溃将使全球气温上升0.05摄氏度，而这两种情况都要到几百到几千年以后才会出现。
短期内，最大的影响将是北极在夏季完全无冰：在上面的研究中没有讨论这个问题，因为它对海平面上升没有影响（因为它已经都是海冰了），但是它的消失会使温度上升0.2度，因为失去了大面积的反射区。人们普遍预计它将在本世纪某个时候发生，尽管具体在哪个十年很难预测。不管怎样，这种影响已经被整合到所有最新的气候模型中了。
Tokomac
If we can't convince people to wear a simple mask for our collective protection, the heavy lifting to augment climate change will be daunting.
如果我们都无法说服人们戴上简单的口罩来进行集体保护，那么加剧气候变化的繁重工作将令人生畏。
If we can't convince people to wear a simple mask for our collective protection, the heavy lifting to augment climate change will be daunting.
如果我们都无法说服人们戴上简单的口罩来进行集体保护，那么加剧气候变化的繁重工作将令人生畏。
Inner-Permission-842
This is the reason my optimism towards the future (of mankind) has ceased to exist. Continuing your selfish ways of living and trusting that technology and science will save you everytime is bound to end in catastrophy sooner or later, and I'm pretty sure will be sooner.
这就是我对（人类）未来不再乐观的原因。继续你自私的生活方式，相信技术和科学每次都会拯救你，这迟早会以灾难告终，我很确定这一幕迟早会发生。
This is the reason my optimism towards the future (of mankind) has ceased to exist. Continuing your selfish ways of living and trusting that technology and science will save you everytime is bound to end in catastrophy sooner or later, and I'm pretty sure will be sooner.
这就是我对（人类）未来不再乐观的原因。继续你自私的生活方式，相信技术和科学每次都会拯救你，这迟早会以灾难告终，我很确定这一幕迟早会发生。
Embe007
Yes, this is one the most revealing things about covid. Climate measures will have to be top-down. Governments will have to decide to implement changes and companies will have to comply, providing only climate friendly options to consumers. Though government has been mostly inadequate, it is miles beyond at least half of the citizenry in terms of foresight and responsiveness. Very sobering.
是的，这是关于新冠肺炎最具启发性的一点。气候措施必须自上而下。政府必须决定实施改变，公司也必须遵守，而只向消费者提供气候友好的（非强制性）选择。尽管政府在很大程度上是不充分的，但在远见和反应能力方面远远超过了至少一半的公民。很让人警醒。
Yes, this is one the most revealing things about covid. Climate measures will have to be top-down. Governments will have to decide to implement changes and companies will have to comply, providing only climate friendly options to consumers. Though government has been mostly inadequate, it is miles beyond at least half of the citizenry in terms of foresight and responsiveness. Very sobering.
是的，这是关于新冠肺炎最具启发性的一点。气候措施必须自上而下。政府必须决定实施改变，公司也必须遵守，而只向消费者提供气候友好的（非强制性）选择。尽管政府在很大程度上是不充分的，但在远见和反应能力方面远远超过了至少一半的公民。很让人警醒。
AmNotSatan
All of the scientists in the world can't convince the governments of the planet to do anything about it. It's completely outside of my wheelhouse to control anything to make the world better.
We're constantly hammered with how it's getting worse and it's getting worse and it's getting worse and it's getting worse and we are all completely powerless to do a goddamn thing about it.
I'm so fuck it. What the fuck am I supposed to do about this?
世界上所有的科学家都无法说服这个星球的政府对此做些什么。我完全无法控制任何事情来让世界变得更好。
我们不断被情况越来越糟，越来越糟，越来越糟而我们却完全无能为力所打击。
我tm妈受不了。我tm该怎么处理这种情况？
All of the scientists in the world can't convince the governments of the planet to do anything about it. It's completely outside of my wheelhouse to control anything to make the world better.
We're constantly hammered with how it's getting worse and it's getting worse and it's getting worse and it's getting worse and we are all completely powerless to do a goddamn thing about it.
I'm so fuck it. What the fuck am I supposed to do about this?
世界上所有的科学家都无法说服这个星球的政府对此做些什么。我完全无法控制任何事情来让世界变得更好。
我们不断被情况越来越糟，越来越糟，越来越糟而我们却完全无能为力所打击。
我tm妈受不了。我tm该怎么处理这种情况？
jemdadoo
Us millenials in here are jaded about this imho
恕我直言，美国千禧一代已经对此感到厌倦了
Us millenials in here are jaded about this imho
恕我直言，美国千禧一代已经对此感到厌倦了
nomnombubbles
Fucking yes why should I care about anything if we are all fucked anyways. So I don't plan on reproducing and live out the rest of my days doing shit I want to do without hurting or bothering others because there will be no future for me to do it later. People wonder why I am so cynical, sarcastic, and depressed often its because of this and therapy can't fix this feeling. It was one of the reasons I drank as a recovering alcoholic. Stop telling me just to look at the bright side. Our bright side was taken from us the day we were born. Ugh sorry this rant isn't directed at you I just needed to get this out since it seems nobody else feels this way in my life outside the internet.
是啊，如果我们都完蛋了，我还在乎什么。所以我不打算繁殖后代，也不打算在我剩下的日子里在不伤害或打扰别人的情况下才做我想做的事，因为我以后没机会做这些事了。人们想知道为什么我如此愤世嫉俗，尖刻，沮丧，通常就是因为这个，并且治疗不能修复这种感觉。这也是我戒酒又酗酒的原因之一。别再让我往好处想了。从我们出生的那天起，我们光明的一面就被夺走了。呃，对不起，这番咆哮不是针对你的，我只是想把它说出来，因为在我的生活中，除了互联网，似乎没有人有这样的感觉。
Fucking yes why should I care about anything if we are all fucked anyways. So I don't plan on reproducing and live out the rest of my days doing shit I want to do without hurting or bothering others because there will be no future for me to do it later. People wonder why I am so cynical, sarcastic, and depressed often its because of this and therapy can't fix this feeling. It was one of the reasons I drank as a recovering alcoholic. Stop telling me just to look at the bright side. Our bright side was taken from us the day we were born. Ugh sorry this rant isn't directed at you I just needed to get this out since it seems nobody else feels this way in my life outside the internet.
是啊，如果我们都完蛋了，我还在乎什么。所以我不打算繁殖后代，也不打算在我剩下的日子里在不伤害或打扰别人的情况下才做我想做的事，因为我以后没机会做这些事了。人们想知道为什么我如此愤世嫉俗，尖刻，沮丧，通常就是因为这个，并且治疗不能修复这种感觉。这也是我戒酒又酗酒的原因之一。别再让我往好处想了。从我们出生的那天起，我们光明的一面就被夺走了。呃，对不起，这番咆哮不是针对你的，我只是想把它说出来，因为在我的生活中，除了互联网，似乎没有人有这样的感觉。
Littleman88
It's corporate propaganda to put all the heavy lifting on the common people anyway.
There are seldom few people with the (legal) power to stop that plant/fracking team from poisoning the town's water, yet their CEO's/shareholders won't stop them without being forced to. Seems far more realistic to me to tell the handful of people that produce a bulk of the pollution to stop ruining things for the rest of us.
不管怎样，这是企业的宣传手段，把所有的重担都压在普通人身上。
很少有人有（合法）权力来阻止工厂/水力压裂团队污染小镇的水，但他们的首席执行官/股东不会阻止他们，除非被迫。对我来说，告诉少数制造大量污染的人停止破坏我们其他人的东西似乎更现实。
It's corporate propaganda to put all the heavy lifting on the common people anyway.
There are seldom few people with the (legal) power to stop that plant/fracking team from poisoning the town's water, yet their CEO's/shareholders won't stop them without being forced to. Seems far more realistic to me to tell the handful of people that produce a bulk of the pollution to stop ruining things for the rest of us.
不管怎样，这是企业的宣传手段，把所有的重担都压在普通人身上。
很少有人有（合法）权力来阻止工厂/水力压裂团队污染小镇的水，但他们的首席执行官/股东不会阻止他们，除非被迫。对我来说，告诉少数制造大量污染的人停止破坏我们其他人的东西似乎更现实。
DarkBomberX
Pretty much this. There are things normal citizens could do to try and help prevent this, but it's meaningless against corporations who destroy the planet for profit. And they dont even care because they think they can use their money to keep them safe when things go to shit while poor people suffer. It really comes down to our Governement needs to stop treat Corperations like theyll ever have your best interest in mind and start putting in environment protections that actually help end pollution. Invest in green energy. Instead, we give money to some of the top polluters and reward people who stifle innovation. Electric car technology has been around since I believe the early 1990s and was constantly stopped by large manufacturers who found more profit in traditional gas cars. We put so much focus on cars, yet ignore trying to improve our public transportation systems to be on par with other 1st world countries. We privatize necessary natural resources like water, for companies to to drain from communities and then sell back to them for 3 times the price.
But hey, that's Captialism! Why bother trying anything else?
差不多。普通市民可以做一些事情来阻止这种情况发生，但反对那些为了利益而破坏地球的公司是毫无意义的。它们甚至不在乎，因为它们认为，当事情一团糟、穷人受苦的时候，它们可以用自己的钱来保障自己的安全。归根结底，我们的政府需要停止将企业视为自己的最大利益，并开始投入环境保护，真正有助于结束污染。投资绿色能源。相反，我们把钱给了一些污染最严重的企业，奖励那些扼杀创新的人。我认为电动汽车技术在20世纪90年代早期就已经存在了，但一直被那些从传统的汽油车中获得更多利润的大型制造商们所阻止。我们把太多的注意力放在汽车上，却忽略了努力改善我们的公共交通系统以与其他第一世界国家同等水平。我们把必要的自然资源私有化，比如水，让公司从社区抽干，然后以3倍的价格卖给他们。
但是，嘿，这就是资本主义！为什么要尝试其他东西呢？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Pretty much this. There are things normal citizens could do to try and help prevent this, but it's meaningless against corporations who destroy the planet for profit. And they dont even care because they think they can use their money to keep them safe when things go to shit while poor people suffer. It really comes down to our Governement needs to stop treat Corperations like theyll ever have your best interest in mind and start putting in environment protections that actually help end pollution. Invest in green energy. Instead, we give money to some of the top polluters and reward people who stifle innovation. Electric car technology has been around since I believe the early 1990s and was constantly stopped by large manufacturers who found more profit in traditional gas cars. We put so much focus on cars, yet ignore trying to improve our public transportation systems to be on par with other 1st world countries. We privatize necessary natural resources like water, for companies to to drain from communities and then sell back to them for 3 times the price.
But hey, that's Captialism! Why bother trying anything else?
差不多。普通市民可以做一些事情来阻止这种情况发生，但反对那些为了利益而破坏地球的公司是毫无意义的。它们甚至不在乎，因为它们认为，当事情一团糟、穷人受苦的时候，它们可以用自己的钱来保障自己的安全。归根结底，我们的政府需要停止将企业视为自己的最大利益，并开始投入环境保护，真正有助于结束污染。投资绿色能源。相反，我们把钱给了一些污染最严重的企业，奖励那些扼杀创新的人。我认为电动汽车技术在20世纪90年代早期就已经存在了，但一直被那些从传统的汽油车中获得更多利润的大型制造商们所阻止。我们把太多的注意力放在汽车上，却忽略了努力改善我们的公共交通系统以与其他第一世界国家同等水平。我们把必要的自然资源私有化，比如水，让公司从社区抽干，然后以3倍的价格卖给他们。
但是，嘿，这就是资本主义！为什么要尝试其他东西呢？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
alliusis
Climate defeatism is actually effectively pretty much the same as climate denial. It gets you to not act.
For a while I felt the exact same as you, until I hear a program on the radio where they were talking about some book written about climate change versus disbelievers (I'll try and find the actual book).
The science shows we still have time to reduce our emissions, and doing so will significantly mitigate the most severe effects of climate change - including the permafrost in the Arctic, etc. Feeling like there's nothing we can do, we're already fucked, gives the same result as not believing in climate change - inactivism. We have a window and we need to advocate and work towards reducing emissions, not throwing up our hands and saying it's over.
气候失败主义实际上和否认气候变化差不多。它让你不去行动。
有一段时间，我的感觉和你完全一样，直到我在收音机里听到一个节目，他们在谈论一些关于气候变化的书和怀疑者（我会试着找到真正的实体书）。
科学研究表明，我们仍有时间减少排放，这样做将显著减轻气候变化的最严重影响——包括北极的永久冻土等等。感觉我们无能为力，我们已经被骗了，这和不相信气候变化的结果是一样的——不行动主义。我们有一个窗口期，我们需要提倡并努力减少排放，而不是举手投降，说一切都结束了。
Climate defeatism is actually effectively pretty much the same as climate denial. It gets you to not act.
For a while I felt the exact same as you, until I hear a program on the radio where they were talking about some book written about climate change versus disbelievers (I'll try and find the actual book).
The science shows we still have time to reduce our emissions, and doing so will significantly mitigate the most severe effects of climate change - including the permafrost in the Arctic, etc. Feeling like there's nothing we can do, we're already fucked, gives the same result as not believing in climate change - inactivism. We have a window and we need to advocate and work towards reducing emissions, not throwing up our hands and saying it's over.
气候失败主义实际上和否认气候变化差不多。它让你不去行动。
有一段时间，我的感觉和你完全一样，直到我在收音机里听到一个节目，他们在谈论一些关于气候变化的书和怀疑者（我会试着找到真正的实体书）。
科学研究表明，我们仍有时间减少排放，这样做将显著减轻气候变化的最严重影响——包括北极的永久冻土等等。感觉我们无能为力，我们已经被骗了，这和不相信气候变化的结果是一样的——不行动主义。我们有一个窗口期，我们需要提倡并努力减少排放，而不是举手投降，说一切都结束了。
lyth
I'm 47. I've been lied to my whole life. I've been powerless my whole life. They've known this was coming for longer than I've been alive. Significantly longer even.
But the lobbyists and oil companies pushed lies in the same ways that tobacco companies spread doubt that smoking caused cancer.
I remember being on an airplane as a kid and people were smoking on the plane. There was legitimately a public debate at the time.
The line they sold us on climate change in the 80's was think globally, act locally. It was a deliberate strategy to make people think that if they just re-used their plastic bags hard enough, we'd be able to stave off the coming climate apocalypse.
They failed to mention that a single oil fuelled container ship coming from China burns as much carbon as 1000 lifetimes of conscientious plastic bag use.
Ronald Reagan was a literal fucking demon. The depth of the lies we've been sold have only come clear to me in the last 20 years... But what can I do?
I've got a son. I want the world he grows up in to look like the place I believed the world was growing up.
The one where racism ended in the 60's and if I just walked to work we could avoid climate catastrophe.
To everyone pissed off at my generation, I get it. You're right. But also know that we were lied to and manipulated our entire lives.
我是47岁。我这辈子都被骗了。我这辈子都很无能为力。他们早在我还活着的时候就知道会这样。大大延长了。
但是游说者和石油公司用与烟草公司同样的方式散播吸烟致癌的怀疑。
我记得当我还是个孩子的时候在飞机上有人在飞机上抽烟。当时有一场正当的公众辩论。
在80年代，他们在气候变化问题上向我们推销的口号是：全球化思考，本地化行动。这是一个经过深思熟虑的策略，目的是让人们相信，只要他们能足够用力地重复使用塑料袋，我们就能避免即将到来的气候灾难。
他们没有提到，一艘燃油集装箱船燃烧的碳相当于使用塑料袋的1000倍。
罗纳德·里根简直就是个恶魔。在过去的20年里，我才明白我们被灌输的谎言有多深……但是我能做什么呢？
我有个儿子。我想让他成长的世界看起来像我所相信的世界成长的地方。
哪个种族主义在60年代就结束了，如果我步行去上班我们就能避免气候灾难的世界。
对于那些生我这代人气的人，我能理解。你是对的。但也要知道，我们的整个人生都被欺骗和操纵了。
I'm 47. I've been lied to my whole life. I've been powerless my whole life. They've known this was coming for longer than I've been alive. Significantly longer even.
But the lobbyists and oil companies pushed lies in the same ways that tobacco companies spread doubt that smoking caused cancer.
I remember being on an airplane as a kid and people were smoking on the plane. There was legitimately a public debate at the time.
The line they sold us on climate change in the 80's was think globally, act locally. It was a deliberate strategy to make people think that if they just re-used their plastic bags hard enough, we'd be able to stave off the coming climate apocalypse.
They failed to mention that a single oil fuelled container ship coming from China burns as much carbon as 1000 lifetimes of conscientious plastic bag use.
Ronald Reagan was a literal fucking demon. The depth of the lies we've been sold have only come clear to me in the last 20 years... But what can I do?
I've got a son. I want the world he grows up in to look like the place I believed the world was growing up.
The one where racism ended in the 60's and if I just walked to work we could avoid climate catastrophe.
To everyone pissed off at my generation, I get it. You're right. But also know that we were lied to and manipulated our entire lives.
我是47岁。我这辈子都被骗了。我这辈子都很无能为力。他们早在我还活着的时候就知道会这样。大大延长了。
但是游说者和石油公司用与烟草公司同样的方式散播吸烟致癌的怀疑。
我记得当我还是个孩子的时候在飞机上有人在飞机上抽烟。当时有一场正当的公众辩论。
在80年代，他们在气候变化问题上向我们推销的口号是：全球化思考，本地化行动。这是一个经过深思熟虑的策略，目的是让人们相信，只要他们能足够用力地重复使用塑料袋，我们就能避免即将到来的气候灾难。
他们没有提到，一艘燃油集装箱船燃烧的碳相当于使用塑料袋的1000倍。
罗纳德·里根简直就是个恶魔。在过去的20年里，我才明白我们被灌输的谎言有多深……但是我能做什么呢？
我有个儿子。我想让他成长的世界看起来像我所相信的世界成长的地方。
哪个种族主义在60年代就结束了，如果我步行去上班我们就能避免气候灾难的世界。
对于那些生我这代人气的人，我能理解。你是对的。但也要知道，我们的整个人生都被欺骗和操纵了。
nomnombubbles
I understand it's really only a handful of people at the top who just happen to be mostly non milllenials that run all the stuff in our world. Growing up watching my parents scrap money together for basic necessities and having to take out multiple credit cards for my surgery and hospital visits (I had epilepsy) as an adult I can finally understand just how hard it was for them too. No matter the generation we need to all be in this together but it's hard to find the motivation when all of the powers that run the world want to keep us down.
我知道，在我们的世界里，只有少数的高层人士管理着所有的事情，而他们大部分都不是千禧一代。看着我的父母一起废钱买基本的生活必需品，不得不拿出好几张信用卡为我做手术和去医院看病（我有癫痫症），长大后我终于明白这对他们来说有多困难。无论哪一代，我们都需要团结在一起，但当所有统治世界的力量都想要压制我们时，我们很难找到动力。
I understand it's really only a handful of people at the top who just happen to be mostly non milllenials that run all the stuff in our world. Growing up watching my parents scrap money together for basic necessities and having to take out multiple credit cards for my surgery and hospital visits (I had epilepsy) as an adult I can finally understand just how hard it was for them too. No matter the generation we need to all be in this together but it's hard to find the motivation when all of the powers that run the world want to keep us down.
我知道，在我们的世界里，只有少数的高层人士管理着所有的事情，而他们大部分都不是千禧一代。看着我的父母一起废钱买基本的生活必需品，不得不拿出好几张信用卡为我做手术和去医院看病（我有癫痫症），长大后我终于明白这对他们来说有多困难。无论哪一代，我们都需要团结在一起，但当所有统治世界的力量都想要压制我们时，我们很难找到动力。
Leather-Yesterday197
You know I’m just so sick of the doomsday crap. We were supposed to be under water by now . Even if we stop c02 , then what?
你知道我已经受够了关于世界末日的扯淡了。按照之前的预测，我们现在应该已经在水下了。即使我们阻止了二氧化碳的排放，那又怎样呢？
You know I’m just so sick of the doomsday crap. We were supposed to be under water by now . Even if we stop c02 , then what?
你知道我已经受够了关于世界末日的扯淡了。按照之前的预测，我们现在应该已经在水下了。即使我们阻止了二氧化碳的排放，那又怎样呢？
Frostzi
All I hear is: we need to cut down on this and that, but no country actually does anything significant. At this point I’m pretty sure we’re just fucked so might as well learn how to surf.
我听到的都是：我们需要减少这个或那个，但没有一个国家真的做了什么有意义的事情。在这一点上，我很确定我们只是被骗了，所以还不如节省精力去学习如何冲浪。
All I hear is: we need to cut down on this and that, but no country actually does anything significant. At this point I’m pretty sure we’re just fucked so might as well learn how to surf.
我听到的都是：我们需要减少这个或那个，但没有一个国家真的做了什么有意义的事情。在这一点上，我很确定我们只是被骗了，所以还不如节省精力去学习如何冲浪。
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