话题：在印度，新冠的真正死亡人数到底有多大？
正文翻译
India’s official Covid statistics report 26,948,800 cases and 307,231 deaths as of May 24.
印度官方发布的新冠统计数据显示，截至5月24日，印度共有26948800例病例和307231例死亡。
The latest national seroprence study in India ended in January, before the current wave, and estimated roughly 26 infections per reported case. This scenario uses a slightly lower figure, in addition to a higher infection fatality rate of 0.3 percent — in line with what has been estimated in the United States at the end of 2020. In this scenario, the estimated number of deaths in India is more than five times the official reported count.
印度最新的全国血清阳性率研究于今年1月结束，也就是本次疫情爆发前，估计每个报告病例约有26例感染。这预测使用了一个略低的数字，除了0.3%的较高感染死亡率外，——与美国2020年底的估算值一致 。在这种情况下，印度估计的死亡人数是官方报告的五倍多。
This scenario uses a slightly higher estimate of true infections per known case, to account for the current wave. The infection fatality rate is also higher — double the rate of the previous scenario, at 0.6 percent — to take into account the tremendous stress that India’s health system has been under during the current wave. Because hospital beds, oxygen and other medical necessities have been scarce in recent weeks, a greater share of those who contract the virus may be dying, driving the infection fatality rate higher.
这种情况使用了一个稍微高一点的估计值来解释当前的流行趋势。考虑到印度卫生系统在当前这波浪潮中承受的巨大压力，感染致死率也更高，是前一种情况的两倍，为0.6%。因为医院的病床、氧气等医疗必需品都被抢购一空 ，感染病毒的人中有更大的一部分可能会死亡，从而导致感染致死率更高。
Because there are two different unknowns, there is a wide range of plausible values for the true infection and death counts in India, Dr. Shioda said. “Public health research usually provides a wide uncertainty range,” she said. “And providing that kind of uncertainty to readers is one of the most important things researchers do.”
Explore possible scenarios for yourself in the interactive above.
“因为有两个不同的未知因素，所以在印度，真实的感染和死亡人数有很多合理的数值。”Shioda 博士说：“公共卫生研究通常有很大的不确定性范围。”向读者提供这种不确定性是研究人员所做的最重要的事情之一。”
At the time the results of each survey were released, they indicated infection prence between 13.5 and 28.5 times higher than India’s reported case counts at those points in the pandemic. The severity of underreporting may have increased or decreased since the last serosurvey was completed, but if it has held steady, that would suggest that almost half of India’s population may have had the virus.
在每次调查结果公布时，他们都表示感染率比印度在大流行期间报告的病例数高出13.5至28.5倍。自上一次血清学调查完成以来，漏报的严重程度可能有所增加或减少，但如果情况保持稳定，这将表明印度近一半的人口可能感染了该病毒。
Just How Big Could India’s True Covid Toll Be?
在印度，新冠的真正死亡人数到底有多大？
在印度，新冠的真正死亡人数到底有多大？
The official Covid-19 figures in India grossly understate the true scale of the pandemic in the country. Last week, India recorded the largest daily death toll for any country during the pandemic — a figure that is most likely still an undercount.
印度官方发布的新冠数据，严重低估了印度的真实情况。上周，印度创下了大流行期间超越所有国家的最大的每日死亡人数，这一数字很可能仍被低估了。
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印度官方发布的新冠数据，严重低估了印度的真实情况。上周，印度创下了大流行期间超越所有国家的最大的每日死亡人数，这一数字很可能仍被低估了。
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Even getting a clear picture of the total number of infections in India is hard because of poor record-keeping and a lack of widespread testing. Estimating the true number of deaths requires a second layer of extrapolation, depending on the share of those infected who end up dying.
由于记录保存不佳而且缺乏广泛的测试，因此很难清楚地了解印度的感染总数。估计真实的死亡人数需要第二层推断，这取决于最终死亡的感染者所占的比例。
由于记录保存不佳而且缺乏广泛的测试，因此很难清楚地了解印度的感染总数。估计真实的死亡人数需要第二层推断，这取决于最终死亡的感染者所占的比例。
In consultation with more than a dozen experts, The New York Times has analyzed case and death counts over time in India, along with the results of large-scale antibody tests, to arrive at several possible estimates for the true scale of devastation in the country.
纽约时报与十多位专家协商，分析了印度的病例和死亡人数，以及大规模抗体测试的结果，得出了几个关于印度糟糕情况的可能估计。
纽约时报与十多位专家协商，分析了印度的病例和死亡人数，以及大规模抗体测试的结果，得出了几个关于印度糟糕情况的可能估计。
Even in the least dire of these, estimated infections and deaths far exceed official figures. More pessimistic ones show a toll on the order of millions of deaths — the most catastrophic loss anywhere in the world.
估计中最好的情况，感染和死亡人数也远远超过官方数字。最糟糕的情况显示出数百万死亡人数——这在世界上任何地方都是最灾难性的损失。
估计中最好的情况，感染和死亡人数也远远超过官方数字。最糟糕的情况显示出数百万死亡人数——这在世界上任何地方都是最灾难性的损失。
India’s official Covid statistics report 26,948,800 cases and 307,231 deaths as of May 24.
印度官方发布的新冠统计数据显示，截至5月24日，印度共有26948800例病例和307231例死亡。
Even in countries with robust surveillance during this pandemic, the number of infections is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases because many people have contracted the virus but have not been tested for it. On Friday, a report by the World Health Organization estimated that the global death toll of Covid-19 may be two or three times higher than reported.
因为许多人感染了病毒，但没有进行病毒检测，所以即使在本次大流行期间有严格监测的国家，感染人数也可能远远高于确诊病例的数量。上周五，世界卫生组织发布的一份报告 指出全球新冠的死亡人数可能是报道的两到三倍。
因为许多人感染了病毒，但没有进行病毒检测，所以即使在本次大流行期间有严格监测的国家，感染人数也可能远远高于确诊病例的数量。上周五，世界卫生组织发布的一份报告 指出全球新冠的死亡人数可能是报道的两到三倍。
The undercount of cases and deaths in India is most likely even more pronounced, for technical, cultural and logistical reasons. Because hospitals are overwhelmed, many Covid deaths occur at home, especially in rural areas, and are omitted from the official count, said Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University. Laboratories that could confirm the cause of death are equally swamped, she said.
由于技术、文化和后勤方面的原因，印度病例和死亡人数不足的情况很可能更加明显。埃默里大学的流行病学家Kayoko Shioda说，由于医院人满为患，许多冠状病毒导致的死亡发生在家里，特别是农村地区，这些在官方统计中不会被记录。她说，能够确认死因的实验室同样疲于应对。
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由于技术、文化和后勤方面的原因，印度病例和死亡人数不足的情况很可能更加明显。埃默里大学的流行病学家Kayoko Shioda说，由于医院人满为患，许多冠状病毒导致的死亡发生在家里，特别是农村地区，这些在官方统计中不会被记录。她说，能够确认死因的实验室同样疲于应对。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Additionally, other researchers have found, there are few Covid tests available; often families are unwilling to say that their loved ones have died of Covid; and the system for keeping vital records in India is shaky at best. Even before Covid-19, about four out of five deaths in India were not medically investigated.
另外，其他研究者也发现，人们缺少新冠测试；很多家庭也不愿意说他们所爱的人死于新冠；而印度保存重要记录的制度也非常不稳定。即使在新冠之前，印度也有大约五分之四的死亡病例还没有接受医学调查。
另外，其他研究者也发现，人们缺少新冠测试；很多家庭也不愿意说他们所爱的人死于新冠；而印度保存重要记录的制度也非常不稳定。即使在新冠之前，印度也有大约五分之四的死亡病例还没有接受医学调查。
To arrive at more plausible estimates of Covid infections and deaths in India, we used data from three nationwide antibody tests, called serosurveys.
为了得出更合理的估算印度新冠病毒感染数和死亡数，我们使用了三个全国性抗体测试的数据，我们称这三个数据为血清调查。
为了得出更合理的估算印度新冠病毒感染数和死亡数，我们使用了三个全国性抗体测试的数据，我们称这三个数据为血清调查。
In each serosurvey, a subset of the population (about 30,000 of India’s 1.4 billion people) is examined for Covid-19 antibodies. Once researchers have figured out the share of those people whose blood is found to contain antibodies, they extrapolate that data point, called the seroprence, to arrive at an estimate for the whole population.
在每一次血清调查中，都需要一部分人（印度14亿人口中约有3万人）接受新冠抗体检测。一旦研究人员计算出那些血液中含有抗体的人群所占的比例，他们就推断出这个被称为血清流行率的数据点，从而得出整个人群的估计值。
在每一次血清调查中，都需要一部分人（印度14亿人口中约有3万人）接受新冠抗体检测。一旦研究人员计算出那些血液中含有抗体的人群所占的比例，他们就推断出这个被称为血清流行率的数据点，从而得出整个人群的估计值。
The antibody tests offer one way to correct official records and arrive at better estimates of total infections and deaths. The reason is simple: Nearly everyone who contracts Covid-19 develops antibodies to fight it, leaving traces of the infection that the surveys can pick up.
抗体测试提供了一种方法来纠正官方记录，可以更好的估计总感染和死亡人数。原因很简单：几乎每个感染了新冠病毒的人都会产生抗体来对抗它，留下调查可以发现的感染痕迹。
抗体测试提供了一种方法来纠正官方记录，可以更好的估计总感染和死亡人数。原因很简单：几乎每个感染了新冠病毒的人都会产生抗体来对抗它，留下调查可以发现的感染痕迹。
Even a wide-scale serosurvey has its limitations, said Dan Weinberger, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. India’s population is so large and diverse that it’s unlikely any serosurvey could capture the full range.
耶鲁大学公共卫生学院（Yale School of Public Health）流行病学副教授丹·温伯格（danweinberger）说，即使是大规模的血清调查也有其局限性。印度的人口如此庞大和多样化，任何血清调查都不可能捕捉到全部范围。
耶鲁大学公共卫生学院（Yale School of Public Health）流行病学副教授丹·温伯格（danweinberger）说，即使是大规模的血清调查也有其局限性。印度的人口如此庞大和多样化，任何血清调查都不可能捕捉到全部范围。
Still, Dr. Weinberger said, the surveys provide a fresh way to calculate more realistic death figures. “It gives us a starting point,” he said. “I think that an exercise like this can put some bounds on the estimates.”
不过，温伯格博士说，这些调查提供了一种新的方法来计算更现实的死亡数字。“这给了我们一个起点，”他说我认为这样的测算可以给估计值设置一些界限。”
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不过，温伯格博士说，这些调查提供了一种新的方法来计算更现实的死亡数字。“这给了我们一个起点，”他说我认为这样的测算可以给估计值设置一些界限。”
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Even in the most conservative estimates of the pandemic’s true toll, the number of infections is several times higher than official reports suggest. Our first, best-case scenario assumes a true infection count 15 times higher than the official number of recorded cases. It also assumes an infection fatality rate, or I.F.R. — the share of all those infected who have died — of 0.15 percent. Both of these numbers are on the low end of the estimates we collected from experts.
即使是对大流行的真实死亡人数最保守的估计，感染人数也比官方报告显示的要高出数倍。我们的第一个最好测算结果是假设真实感染人数是官方记录病例数的15倍。感染致死率，或者说已死亡的感染者的比例为0.15%。这两个数字都在我们从专家那里收集的估计数的最低值。
即使是对大流行的真实死亡人数最保守的估计，感染人数也比官方报告显示的要高出数倍。我们的第一个最好测算结果是假设真实感染人数是官方记录病例数的15倍。感染致死率，或者说已死亡的感染者的比例为0.15%。这两个数字都在我们从专家那里收集的估计数的最低值。
The result is a death toll roughly double what’s been reported to date.
其结果是死亡人数大约是目前报道的两倍。
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其结果是死亡人数大约是目前报道的两倍。
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The latest national seroprence study in India ended in January, before the current wave, and estimated roughly 26 infections per reported case. This scenario uses a slightly lower figure, in addition to a higher infection fatality rate of 0.3 percent — in line with what has been estimated in the United States at the end of 2020. In this scenario, the estimated number of deaths in India is more than five times the official reported count.
印度最新的全国血清阳性率研究于今年1月结束，也就是本次疫情爆发前，估计每个报告病例约有26例感染。这预测使用了一个略低的数字，除了0.3%的较高感染死亡率外，——与美国2020年底的估算值一致 。在这种情况下，印度估计的死亡人数是官方报告的五倍多。
“As with most countries, total infections and deaths are undercounted in India,” said Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy. “The best way to arrive at the most likely scenario would be based on triangulation of data from different sources, which would indicate roughly 500 to 600 million infections.”
“和大多数国家一样，印度的总感染率和死亡人数被低估了，”疾病动力学、经济与政策中心主任Ramanan Laxminarayan博士说：得出最有可能发生的情况的最佳方法是基于来源不同的数据进行三角测量，这表明大约有5亿至6亿人感染。”
“和大多数国家一样，印度的总感染率和死亡人数被低估了，”疾病动力学、经济与政策中心主任Ramanan Laxminarayan博士说：得出最有可能发生的情况的最佳方法是基于来源不同的数据进行三角测量，这表明大约有5亿至6亿人感染。”
This scenario uses a slightly higher estimate of true infections per known case, to account for the current wave. The infection fatality rate is also higher — double the rate of the previous scenario, at 0.6 percent — to take into account the tremendous stress that India’s health system has been under during the current wave. Because hospital beds, oxygen and other medical necessities have been scarce in recent weeks, a greater share of those who contract the virus may be dying, driving the infection fatality rate higher.
这种情况使用了一个稍微高一点的估计值来解释当前的流行趋势。考虑到印度卫生系统在当前这波浪潮中承受的巨大压力，感染致死率也更高，是前一种情况的两倍，为0.6%。因为医院的病床、氧气等医疗必需品都被抢购一空 ，感染病毒的人中有更大的一部分可能会死亡，从而导致感染致死率更高。
Because there are two different unknowns, there is a wide range of plausible values for the true infection and death counts in India, Dr. Shioda said. “Public health research usually provides a wide uncertainty range,” she said. “And providing that kind of uncertainty to readers is one of the most important things researchers do.”
Explore possible scenarios for yourself in the interactive above.
“因为有两个不同的未知因素，所以在印度，真实的感染和死亡人数有很多合理的数值。”Shioda 博士说：“公共卫生研究通常有很大的不确定性范围。”向读者提供这种不确定性是研究人员所做的最重要的事情之一。”
How we estimated case multipliers
So far, India has conducted three national serosurveys during the Covid-19 pandemic. All three have found that the true number of infections drastically exceeded the number of confirmed cases at the time in question.
我们如何估计案例乘数
到目前为止，印度已经在Covid-19大流行期间进行了三次全国血清调查。这三人都发现，真正的感染人数大大超过了当时的确诊病例数。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
So far, India has conducted three national serosurveys during the Covid-19 pandemic. All three have found that the true number of infections drastically exceeded the number of confirmed cases at the time in question.
我们如何估计案例乘数
到目前为止，印度已经在Covid-19大流行期间进行了三次全国血清调查。这三人都发现，真正的感染人数大大超过了当时的确诊病例数。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
At the time the results of each survey were released, they indicated infection prence between 13.5 and 28.5 times higher than India’s reported case counts at those points in the pandemic. The severity of underreporting may have increased or decreased since the last serosurvey was completed, but if it has held steady, that would suggest that almost half of India’s population may have had the virus.
在每次调查结果公布时，他们都表示感染率比印度在大流行期间报告的病例数高出13.5至28.5倍。自上一次血清学调查完成以来，漏报的严重程度可能有所增加或减少，但如果情况保持稳定，这将表明印度近一半的人口可能感染了该病毒。
Dr. Shioda said that even the large multipliers found in the serosurveys may rely on undercounts of the true number of infections. The reason, she said, is that the concentration of antibodies drops in the months after an infection, making them harder to detect. The number would probably be higher if the surveys were able to detect everyone who has, in fact, been infected, she said.
Shioda博士说，即使是血清调查中发现的大乘数也可能依赖于对感染真实数量的低估。她说，原因是感染后几个月抗体浓度下降，使其更难检测。她说，如果这些调查能够发现所有事实上已经被感染的人，这个数字可能会更高。
Shioda博士说，即使是血清调查中发现的大乘数也可能依赖于对感染真实数量的低估。她说，原因是感染后几个月抗体浓度下降，使其更难检测。她说，如果这些调查能够发现所有事实上已经被感染的人，这个数字可能会更高。
“Those people who were infected a while ago may have not been captured by this number,” Dr. Shioda said. “So this is probably an underestimate of the true proportion of the population that has been infected.”
“那些不久前被感染的人可能还没有被这个数字抓获，”Shioda博士说：“因此，这可能低估了受感染人数的真实比例。”
“那些不久前被感染的人可能还没有被这个数字抓获，”Shioda博士说：“因此，这可能低估了受感染人数的真实比例。”
Like nearly all researchers contacted for this article, however, Dr. Shioda said the estimator provided a good way to get a sense of the wide range of possible death tolls in India.
然而，与本文联系的几乎所有研究人员一样，Shioda博士说，这一估算方法提供了一个很好的方法，可以了解印度可能死亡人数的广泛范围。
然而，与本文联系的几乎所有研究人员一样，Shioda博士说，这一估算方法提供了一个很好的方法，可以了解印度可能死亡人数的广泛范围。
Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, said that the “slider,” or sliding calculator, is useful for “exploring the consequences” of different values for the infection fatality ratio and the ratio of the real number of infections to confirmed cases. Those are “the two measures that need to be estimated,” Dr. Shaman said.
哥伦比亚大学的流行病学家Jeffrey Shaman说，“滑动计算器”有助于“探索”感染致死率和实际感染人数与确诊病例之比不同值的后果。Shaman说，感染致死率和实际感染人数是“需要估计的两个指标”。
哥伦比亚大学的流行病学家Jeffrey Shaman说，“滑动计算器”有助于“探索”感染致死率和实际感染人数与确诊病例之比不同值的后果。Shaman说，感染致死率和实际感染人数是“需要估计的两个指标”。
How we estimated death rates
我们是怎么估计死亡率的
我们是怎么估计死亡率的
Many of the infection fatality rate estimates that have been published were calculated before the most recent wave in India, so it could be that the overall I.F.R. is actually higher after accounting for the most recent wave. The rate also varies greatly by age: Typically, the measure rises for older populations. India’s population skews young — its median age is around 29 — which could mean I.F.R. is lower there than in countries with larger older populations.
已经公布的许多感染死亡率估计数是在印度最近一波感染之前计算出来的，因此，在考虑到最近一波感染后，总的感染死亡数可能比实际情况更高。这一比率也因年龄的不同而有很大的差异：通常情况下，这一指标针对的是老年人口。印度的人口偏年轻，平均年龄在29岁左右，这可能意味着印度的人口出生率低于人口老龄化程度较高的国家。
已经公布的许多感染死亡率估计数是在印度最近一波感染之前计算出来的，因此，在考虑到最近一波感染后，总的感染死亡数可能比实际情况更高。这一比率也因年龄的不同而有很大的差异：通常情况下，这一指标针对的是老年人口。印度的人口偏年轻，平均年龄在29岁左右，这可能意味着印度的人口出生率低于人口老龄化程度较高的国家。
There is also extreme variability within the country in terms of both infection fatality rate and seroprence. In addition to the three national serosurveys, there have been more than 60 serosurveys done at the local and regional level, according to SeroTracker, a website that compiles serosurvey data from around the world.
在感染致死率和血清阳性率方面，该国也存在极大的差异。根据收集世界各地血清调查数据的网站SeroTracker的数据，除三个国家级别的血清调查外，印度在地方和地区级也进行了60多次血清调查。
在感染致死率和血清阳性率方面，该国也存在极大的差异。根据收集世界各地血清调查数据的网站SeroTracker的数据，除三个国家级别的血清调查外，印度在地方和地区级也进行了60多次血清调查。
In a paper examining infection rates using serosurvey data from three locations in India, Dr. Paul Novosad, an associate professor of economics at Dartmouth College, found huge variability depending on the population being sampled. “We found that age-specific I.F.R. among returning lockdown migrants was much higher than in richer countries,” he said. “In contrast, we found a much lower first-wave I.F.R. than richer countries in the Southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.”
在 一篇论文 达特茅斯学院（Dartmouth College）经济学副教授保罗诺沃萨德（Paul Novosad）博士利用印度三个地区的血清学调查数据研究了感染率，发现根据抽样人群的不同，感染率存在巨大的差异他说：“我们发现，在返回后被封锁的居民中，印度特定年龄段的感染死亡率比富裕国家高得多。 我们又发现，南部卡纳塔克邦和泰米尔纳德邦的第一波感染死亡率比富裕国家低得多。”
在 一篇论文 达特茅斯学院（Dartmouth College）经济学副教授保罗诺沃萨德（Paul Novosad）博士利用印度三个地区的血清学调查数据研究了感染率，发现根据抽样人群的不同，感染率存在巨大的差异他说：“我们发现，在返回后被封锁的居民中，印度特定年龄段的感染死亡率比富裕国家高得多。 我们又发现，南部卡纳塔克邦和泰米尔纳德邦的第一波感染死亡率比富裕国家低得多。”
In a country as large as India, even a small fluctuation in infection fatality rates could mean a difference of hundreds of thousands of deaths, as seen in the estimates above.
就像前文所提到的，在印度这样一个大国，感染致死率的微小波动也可能意味着数十万人死亡的差异。
就像前文所提到的，在印度这样一个大国，感染致死率的微小波动也可能意味着数十万人死亡的差异。
While estimates can vary over time and from region to region, one thing is clear beyond all doubt: The pandemic in India is much larger than the official figures suggest.
尽管估计数可能随着时间和地区的不同而有所不同，但有一点是毋庸置疑的：印度的新冠感染数比官方数字所显示的要严重得多。
尽管估计数可能随着时间和地区的不同而有所不同，但有一点是毋庸置疑的：印度的新冠感染数比官方数字所显示的要严重得多。
评论翻译
Umesh Patil
Cupertino, CAMay 25
Very well done, thank you to the team which worked hard to put this together, and thanks to NYT to publish it. This is especially critical given the propensity of the current Modi GOI regime to suppress the bad news and not allow the truth to come out. World Media has an extra-ordinarily critical role to play here as Indians everywhere seek the truth.
做得很好，谢谢你的团队的努力工作，也感谢纽约时报的出版。鉴于目前莫迪政府倾向于压制坏消息，不让真相大白，这些报道尤为关键。在世界各地的印度人寻求真相之际，世界媒体在这里扮演着一个非常关键的角色。
Cupertino, CAMay 25
Very well done, thank you to the team which worked hard to put this together, and thanks to NYT to publish it. This is especially critical given the propensity of the current Modi GOI regime to suppress the bad news and not allow the truth to come out. World Media has an extra-ordinarily critical role to play here as Indians everywhere seek the truth.
做得很好，谢谢你的团队的努力工作，也感谢纽约时报的出版。鉴于目前莫迪政府倾向于压制坏消息，不让真相大白，这些报道尤为关键。在世界各地的印度人寻求真相之际，世界媒体在这里扮演着一个非常关键的角色。
Jagdeer Haleed
New YorkMay 25
I come from a state that prides itself on being one of the most developed states in India. Hyderabad - one of the most premier knowledge centers in India is in my state. A large chunk of Indian engineers working in the world come from the same state as me. Medical students from my state go to Eastern Europe to continue their studies and serve in those countries where there are too few doctors. A state like that, which boasts of such great talent and forward looking decided to scale back on collecting data for covid numbers to show itself favorably among other states. Other states followed suit. Anecdotally speaking, among my acquaintances, I knew exactly one person since March 2020 to March 2021 who passed away because of covid. Since March 2021 to present, I five acquaintances who passed away because of covid. One person in 12 months as compared to 5 people in 3 months. Extrapolate it and the numbers will be staggering, frightening. I wouldn't balk at a number like 1.5 million. The population of India is just too too large and the infrastructure to support them too too low. 1.5 million out of 1.4 billion sounds totally plausible to me.
我来自一个以自己是印度最发达的州之一而自豪的州——海得拉巴州。印度最重要的知识中心之一就在我的州。在世界各地工作的印度工程师中，有很大一部分人和我来自同一个州。我所在州的医学生去东欧继续他们的学业，并在那些医生非常少的国家服务。像这样一个以拥有如此优秀的人才和前瞻性而自豪的州，决定减少对新冠数据的收集，以在其他州面前显示自己的优势。其他州也纷纷效仿。从2020年3月到2021年3月，我认识的人中，我只知道有一个人因为新冠去世了。从2021年3月至今，我认识的人中有五位因新冠去世了。12个月只有一个人，而3个月却有5个人。以此推测，数字是惊人的，可怕的。我不会对150万这样的数字报迟疑态度。印度的人口太多，支撑他们的基础设施太少。14亿中有150万我认为是完全合理的。
New YorkMay 25
I come from a state that prides itself on being one of the most developed states in India. Hyderabad - one of the most premier knowledge centers in India is in my state. A large chunk of Indian engineers working in the world come from the same state as me. Medical students from my state go to Eastern Europe to continue their studies and serve in those countries where there are too few doctors. A state like that, which boasts of such great talent and forward looking decided to scale back on collecting data for covid numbers to show itself favorably among other states. Other states followed suit. Anecdotally speaking, among my acquaintances, I knew exactly one person since March 2020 to March 2021 who passed away because of covid. Since March 2021 to present, I five acquaintances who passed away because of covid. One person in 12 months as compared to 5 people in 3 months. Extrapolate it and the numbers will be staggering, frightening. I wouldn't balk at a number like 1.5 million. The population of India is just too too large and the infrastructure to support them too too low. 1.5 million out of 1.4 billion sounds totally plausible to me.
我来自一个以自己是印度最发达的州之一而自豪的州——海得拉巴州。印度最重要的知识中心之一就在我的州。在世界各地工作的印度工程师中，有很大一部分人和我来自同一个州。我所在州的医学生去东欧继续他们的学业，并在那些医生非常少的国家服务。像这样一个以拥有如此优秀的人才和前瞻性而自豪的州，决定减少对新冠数据的收集，以在其他州面前显示自己的优势。其他州也纷纷效仿。从2020年3月到2021年3月，我认识的人中，我只知道有一个人因为新冠去世了。从2021年3月至今，我认识的人中有五位因新冠去世了。12个月只有一个人，而3个月却有5个人。以此推测，数字是惊人的，可怕的。我不会对150万这样的数字报迟疑态度。印度的人口太多，支撑他们的基础设施太少。14亿中有150万我认为是完全合理的。
SK
BostonMay 25
I hope NYT can make these articles free for the Indian people to access. The majority of our mainstream newspapers and TV media have been either paid off or threatened into subservient silence. It is more important than ever for people who cannot afford to pay for subscxtions to see glimpses of the truth trickling in from international publications. Thank you for this work.
我希望《纽约时报》能免费为印度人民提供这些文章。我们大多数的主流报纸和电视媒体要么被收买，要么被威胁屈服归于沉默。对于那些付不起订阅费的人来说，从国际出版物中看到真相比以往任何时候都重要。谢谢你的工作。
BostonMay 25
I hope NYT can make these articles free for the Indian people to access. The majority of our mainstream newspapers and TV media have been either paid off or threatened into subservient silence. It is more important than ever for people who cannot afford to pay for subscxtions to see glimpses of the truth trickling in from international publications. Thank you for this work.
我希望《纽约时报》能免费为印度人民提供这些文章。我们大多数的主流报纸和电视媒体要么被收买，要么被威胁屈服归于沉默。对于那些付不起订阅费的人来说，从国际出版物中看到真相比以往任何时候都重要。谢谢你的工作。
Brigitte
MAMay 25
This pandemic is far from over, and I don't know that the current vaccination rate in the US is going to prevent another wave here. I'm not ready to declare victory or stop wearing a mask just yet, thought being vaccinated is comforting for sure.
这场大流行还远未结束，我不知道美国目前的疫苗接种率能否阻止这场大流行的另一波浪潮。我还没有准备好宣布胜利或停止戴口罩，我想接种疫苗肯定会让人得到安慰。
MAMay 25
This pandemic is far from over, and I don't know that the current vaccination rate in the US is going to prevent another wave here. I'm not ready to declare victory or stop wearing a mask just yet, thought being vaccinated is comforting for sure.
这场大流行还远未结束，我不知道美国目前的疫苗接种率能否阻止这场大流行的另一波浪潮。我还没有准备好宣布胜利或停止戴口罩，我想接种疫苗肯定会让人得到安慰。
Jagdeer Haleed
New YorkMay 25
I also want to thank nytimes for conducting a statistically relevant and plausible study. I can't believe anything coming out of BJP's propaganda machinery anymore. For a moment, even if you decide to ignore the hardline hindutva mindset of the govt., one can't ignore the gross incompetence permeating through every level. People are dying by thousands while politicians are playing the blame game on twitter and lixedIn. At the highest levels, the govt. is all talk and fluff. Moderna and Pfizer and J&J are ready to work with India and ship their vaccines but cr India haseated imaginary impediments like doing another clinical study on Indians. I can't imagine why a country would make such an ask. (I would really like to know!). And more importantly, why would a pharma company like Pfizer or Moderna agree to such an ask. Absolutely shameful. More shameful is the rampant mud slinging I see on twitter and now on lixedIn
我要感谢《纽约时报》进行了一项与统计数据相关且可信的研究。我再也不敢相信人民党的宣传机器说的那些东西了。此刻，即使你决定无视政府的强硬心态，也不能忽视渗透到各个层面的严重无能。当政客们在twitter和lixedIn上玩指责游戏时，成千上万的人正在死去。在最高层，政府都在空谈和吹毛求疵。摩德纳、辉瑞和强生准备与印度合作并运送疫苗，但印度制造了障碍，比如对印度人进行另一项临床研究。我无法想象为什么一个国家会提出这样的要求(我真的很想知道！）。更重要的是，为什么像辉瑞和摩德纳这样的制药公司会同意这样的要求。真可耻。更可耻的是我在twitter和lixedIn上看到的猖獗的甩锅行为。
New YorkMay 25
I also want to thank nytimes for conducting a statistically relevant and plausible study. I can't believe anything coming out of BJP's propaganda machinery anymore. For a moment, even if you decide to ignore the hardline hindutva mindset of the govt., one can't ignore the gross incompetence permeating through every level. People are dying by thousands while politicians are playing the blame game on twitter and lixedIn. At the highest levels, the govt. is all talk and fluff. Moderna and Pfizer and J&J are ready to work with India and ship their vaccines but cr India haseated imaginary impediments like doing another clinical study on Indians. I can't imagine why a country would make such an ask. (I would really like to know!). And more importantly, why would a pharma company like Pfizer or Moderna agree to such an ask. Absolutely shameful. More shameful is the rampant mud slinging I see on twitter and now on lixedIn
我要感谢《纽约时报》进行了一项与统计数据相关且可信的研究。我再也不敢相信人民党的宣传机器说的那些东西了。此刻，即使你决定无视政府的强硬心态，也不能忽视渗透到各个层面的严重无能。当政客们在twitter和lixedIn上玩指责游戏时，成千上万的人正在死去。在最高层，政府都在空谈和吹毛求疵。摩德纳、辉瑞和强生准备与印度合作并运送疫苗，但印度制造了障碍，比如对印度人进行另一项临床研究。我无法想象为什么一个国家会提出这样的要求(我真的很想知道！）。更重要的是，为什么像辉瑞和摩德纳这样的制药公司会同意这样的要求。真可耻。更可耻的是我在twitter和lixedIn上看到的猖獗的甩锅行为。
Matthew
NJMay 25
India is 1,400,000,000. US is 330,000,000, so India has 4.25 times as many people. US just past 600,000 deaths, also likely conservative. You do the math on that and India would have to have 2,540,000 deaths to be at the same rate per capita, well past the 1,600,000 likely scenario you print here. The point is, to date the US has had it worse than India per capita. Worldometers has the US at 1,817 per 1 million deaths, whereas they have India at 223 per million, tallying 310,000 deaths; which re-calculated based on the 1.6mm "likely" get you to 1,151 per 1 million, way below US rate. The only difference is the sensationalism of the imagery coming out of India. Seeing images of open air cremation makes it seem worse, whereas our cremations and burial go unseen, so we don't think our problem is as bad. Even in these day of celebrating "the end" and "re-opening, the Times, on the front page publishes 416 new deaths this day. That kind of number used to bother us. Now we are fine with it.
印度是14亿，美国是3亿，所以印度的人口是美国的4.25倍。美国刚刚过去60万人死亡，这还可能是保守估计。如果按照这个估算，印度的死亡人数将达到2540000人，远远超过你在这里打印的1600000人的死亡数。关键是，迄今为止，数据显示美国状况的比印度的人均水平还要糟糕。世界计量器的数据显示，美国每100万人中有1817人死亡，而印度每100万人中有223人死亡，总计31万人死亡；根据1.6mm的“可能”重新计算得出，每100万人中有1151人，远低于美国的死亡率。唯一不同的是来自印度的图像的耸人听闻。看到露天火葬的画面会让事情看起来更糟，而我们的火葬和埋葬却看不见，所以我们认为我们的问题没有那么严重。即使在庆祝“结束”和“重新开放”的日子里，《泰晤士报》在头版刊登了416例新的死亡病例。这种数字过去常常困扰我们。现在我们可以接受了。
NJMay 25
India is 1,400,000,000. US is 330,000,000, so India has 4.25 times as many people. US just past 600,000 deaths, also likely conservative. You do the math on that and India would have to have 2,540,000 deaths to be at the same rate per capita, well past the 1,600,000 likely scenario you print here. The point is, to date the US has had it worse than India per capita. Worldometers has the US at 1,817 per 1 million deaths, whereas they have India at 223 per million, tallying 310,000 deaths; which re-calculated based on the 1.6mm "likely" get you to 1,151 per 1 million, way below US rate. The only difference is the sensationalism of the imagery coming out of India. Seeing images of open air cremation makes it seem worse, whereas our cremations and burial go unseen, so we don't think our problem is as bad. Even in these day of celebrating "the end" and "re-opening, the Times, on the front page publishes 416 new deaths this day. That kind of number used to bother us. Now we are fine with it.
印度是14亿，美国是3亿，所以印度的人口是美国的4.25倍。美国刚刚过去60万人死亡，这还可能是保守估计。如果按照这个估算，印度的死亡人数将达到2540000人，远远超过你在这里打印的1600000人的死亡数。关键是，迄今为止，数据显示美国状况的比印度的人均水平还要糟糕。世界计量器的数据显示，美国每100万人中有1817人死亡，而印度每100万人中有223人死亡，总计31万人死亡；根据1.6mm的“可能”重新计算得出，每100万人中有1151人，远低于美国的死亡率。唯一不同的是来自印度的图像的耸人听闻。看到露天火葬的画面会让事情看起来更糟，而我们的火葬和埋葬却看不见，所以我们认为我们的问题没有那么严重。即使在庆祝“结束”和“重新开放”的日子里，《泰晤士报》在头版刊登了416例新的死亡病例。这种数字过去常常困扰我们。现在我们可以接受了。
Nt
GaMay 25
These estimates are very plausible and likely close to accurate. Just anecdotally everyone knows many families and friends who have been infected and have lost loved ones. No one that I personally know does not have infection and fatalities. Multiply this by every one known and it comes to order of magnitude difference from the official figures. In India a great emphasis is given to external image of their country, prestige issue about handling the pandemic and nor letting the world see the sorry underbelly. Yet the banks of the Ganges cannot hide the truth anymore. The world already knows the truth.
这些估计非常可信，可能接近准确。据传，每个人都知道许多家庭和朋友谁被感染，谁失去了亲人。我个人认识的人中没有人被感染和死亡。把这个数乘以已知的每一个数，得出与官方数字的数量级差。在印度，人们非常重视自己国家的外部形象，重视处理疫情的威望问题，也不让世界看到令人遗憾的弱点。然而恒河的河岸已经无法掩盖真相了。世界已经知道真相了。
GaMay 25
These estimates are very plausible and likely close to accurate. Just anecdotally everyone knows many families and friends who have been infected and have lost loved ones. No one that I personally know does not have infection and fatalities. Multiply this by every one known and it comes to order of magnitude difference from the official figures. In India a great emphasis is given to external image of their country, prestige issue about handling the pandemic and nor letting the world see the sorry underbelly. Yet the banks of the Ganges cannot hide the truth anymore. The world already knows the truth.
这些估计非常可信，可能接近准确。据传，每个人都知道许多家庭和朋友谁被感染，谁失去了亲人。我个人认识的人中没有人被感染和死亡。把这个数乘以已知的每一个数，得出与官方数字的数量级差。在印度，人们非常重视自己国家的外部形象，重视处理疫情的威望问题，也不让世界看到令人遗憾的弱点。然而恒河的河岸已经无法掩盖真相了。世界已经知道真相了。
Gopal
BangaloreMay 25
It’s like the “99 percent certain Hillary would win” The numbers across the world will always be within the bell curve. The official numbers across the country ( congress and bjp ruled states) fall in line too. Every country under reported because of the very nature of collecting data and understanding what deaths are actually covid related. To claim it’s under reported by a factor of ten shows the over eagerness in proving something else. How is it even possible to prove(this article certainly doesn’t )
就像“99%的可能希拉里肯定会赢”一样，全世界的数字都在钟形曲线之内。全国各地的官方数据（国会和人民党统治的州）也不相上下。收集数据和了解哪些死亡与新冠有关，每个国家都报告不足。声称它被低估了10倍，这显示了人们想证明其他东西的过分渴望。那么怎么证明（这篇文章肯定没有这个问题）
BangaloreMay 25
It’s like the “99 percent certain Hillary would win” The numbers across the world will always be within the bell curve. The official numbers across the country ( congress and bjp ruled states) fall in line too. Every country under reported because of the very nature of collecting data and understanding what deaths are actually covid related. To claim it’s under reported by a factor of ten shows the over eagerness in proving something else. How is it even possible to prove(this article certainly doesn’t )
就像“99%的可能希拉里肯定会赢”一样，全世界的数字都在钟形曲线之内。全国各地的官方数据（国会和人民党统治的州）也不相上下。收集数据和了解哪些死亡与新冠有关，每个国家都报告不足。声称它被低估了10倍，这显示了人们想证明其他东西的过分渴望。那么怎么证明（这篇文章肯定没有这个问题）
Gem Sidhu
MichiganMay 25
I was speaking to a coworker who has family in Patna, Bihar. Nine members from his family in seven different households passed away in last few weeks. CNN in its May 24, 2021 report has quoted Divya Bhaksar a local newspaper in the state of Gujarat. In the past 71 days 66,000 more deaths reports than in the same time period last year. That is just from one state. I am not sure why NY times did not gather comparative death data to come up with these estimates.
我在和一个在比哈尔邦巴特纳有家人的同事聊天时得知。在过去的几周里，他家七个不同家庭的九名成员去世了。CNN在2021年5月24日的报道中引用了古吉拉特邦一家当地报纸Divya Bhaksar的话。在过去的71天里，死亡人数比去年同期增加了66000人。那只是来自一个州。我不知道为什么纽约时报没有收集比较死亡数据得出这些估计。
MichiganMay 25
I was speaking to a coworker who has family in Patna, Bihar. Nine members from his family in seven different households passed away in last few weeks. CNN in its May 24, 2021 report has quoted Divya Bhaksar a local newspaper in the state of Gujarat. In the past 71 days 66,000 more deaths reports than in the same time period last year. That is just from one state. I am not sure why NY times did not gather comparative death data to come up with these estimates.
我在和一个在比哈尔邦巴特纳有家人的同事聊天时得知。在过去的几周里，他家七个不同家庭的九名成员去世了。CNN在2021年5月24日的报道中引用了古吉拉特邦一家当地报纸Divya Bhaksar的话。在过去的71天里，死亡人数比去年同期增加了66000人。那只是来自一个州。我不知道为什么纽约时报没有收集比较死亡数据得出这些估计。
DK
United StatesMay 25
India's poor data on COVID infections and deaths are part of the country's poor governance. One cannot have statistical integrity and quality when institutions are weak, politicians are hardly ever accountable, corruption abounds, and media is muzzled. In fact, poor data has fed hubris, lulled the population into complacency, and allowed politicians to play politics rather than take measures to control the pandemic. I am not conspiracy-minded but I think poor data suited Modi and the BJP just fine.
印度关于冠状病毒感染和死亡的不良数据是该国治理不善的一部分。在机构薄弱、政客几乎不负责任、腐败泛滥、媒体被压制的情况下，人们不可能拥有统计的完整性和质量。事实上，糟糕的数据助长了狂妄自大，诱使民众沾沾自喜，让政客们玩弄政治，而不是采取措施控制疫情。我不是阴谋论者，但我认为糟糕的数据适合莫迪和人民党。
United StatesMay 25
India's poor data on COVID infections and deaths are part of the country's poor governance. One cannot have statistical integrity and quality when institutions are weak, politicians are hardly ever accountable, corruption abounds, and media is muzzled. In fact, poor data has fed hubris, lulled the population into complacency, and allowed politicians to play politics rather than take measures to control the pandemic. I am not conspiracy-minded but I think poor data suited Modi and the BJP just fine.
印度关于冠状病毒感染和死亡的不良数据是该国治理不善的一部分。在机构薄弱、政客几乎不负责任、腐败泛滥、媒体被压制的情况下，人们不可能拥有统计的完整性和质量。事实上，糟糕的数据助长了狂妄自大，诱使民众沾沾自喜，让政客们玩弄政治，而不是采取措施控制疫情。我不是阴谋论者，但我认为糟糕的数据适合莫迪和人民党。
June Mani
BostonMay 25
There is definitely an undercount going on. In my own house, my aunt passed away and was not counted as a covid death because she died at home. When families are grieving being asked for covid positive certificates (tests which are hard to come by btw) is not reasonable. It didn't just stop there, one more member of my family passed away, two needed intense hospitalization, beds which we had to hunt down. And this was in Chennai. Imagine the small towns and villages where people hesitate to even admit that they are sick. There is a general lack of motivation to ACT as soon as symptoms appear. The let's wait and see approach was a direct cause of my family's losses. The govt. has failed in its messaging. If only people had been alxed to the seriousness of the disease earlier maybe we wouldn't be looking at these numbers. I hope all these models take that into account.
肯定有统计不足。在我自己的房子里，我的姑姑去世了，因为她死在家里，所以不算死亡数。当家庭悲痛时，被要求提供新冠阳性证明（顺便说一句，很难得到测试）是不合理的。事情不仅止于此，我们家还有一个成员去世了，两个成员需要住院治疗，我们必须找到床位。这是在金奈。想象一下那些小城镇和村庄，人们甚至不愿承认自己生病了。人们普遍缺乏在症状出现时立即采取行动的动力。“让我们再看看情况”的做法是我家人损失的直接原因。政府的信息传递失败了。如果人们早一点意识到疾病的严重性，也许我们就不会看到这些数字了。我希望所有这些模型都能考虑到这一点。
BostonMay 25
There is definitely an undercount going on. In my own house, my aunt passed away and was not counted as a covid death because she died at home. When families are grieving being asked for covid positive certificates (tests which are hard to come by btw) is not reasonable. It didn't just stop there, one more member of my family passed away, two needed intense hospitalization, beds which we had to hunt down. And this was in Chennai. Imagine the small towns and villages where people hesitate to even admit that they are sick. There is a general lack of motivation to ACT as soon as symptoms appear. The let's wait and see approach was a direct cause of my family's losses. The govt. has failed in its messaging. If only people had been alxed to the seriousness of the disease earlier maybe we wouldn't be looking at these numbers. I hope all these models take that into account.
肯定有统计不足。在我自己的房子里，我的姑姑去世了，因为她死在家里，所以不算死亡数。当家庭悲痛时，被要求提供新冠阳性证明（顺便说一句，很难得到测试）是不合理的。事情不仅止于此，我们家还有一个成员去世了，两个成员需要住院治疗，我们必须找到床位。这是在金奈。想象一下那些小城镇和村庄，人们甚至不愿承认自己生病了。人们普遍缺乏在症状出现时立即采取行动的动力。“让我们再看看情况”的做法是我家人损失的直接原因。政府的信息传递失败了。如果人们早一点意识到疾病的严重性，也许我们就不会看到这些数字了。我希望所有这些模型都能考虑到这一点。
Dalton Catunda Rocha
BrazilMay 25
Here in Brazil the "official" number of deaths is about 450,000. In fact, here in Brazil, the real number of deaths is between 1,000,000 and 1,500,000 deaths of coronavirus. Yes. In India, there's even more deaths, tahn, here in Brazil. Since weeks ago, more than 10,000 Indians are dieing of coronavirus, on each day.
在巴西，官方发布的死亡人数约为45万。事实上，在巴西，冠状病毒的实际死亡人数在100万到150万之间。对。在印度，死亡人数可能更多。从几周前开始，每天有超过10000名印度人死于冠状病毒。
BrazilMay 25
Here in Brazil the "official" number of deaths is about 450,000. In fact, here in Brazil, the real number of deaths is between 1,000,000 and 1,500,000 deaths of coronavirus. Yes. In India, there's even more deaths, tahn, here in Brazil. Since weeks ago, more than 10,000 Indians are dieing of coronavirus, on each day.
在巴西，官方发布的死亡人数约为45万。事实上，在巴西，冠状病毒的实际死亡人数在100万到150万之间。对。在印度，死亡人数可能更多。从几周前开始，每天有超过10000名印度人死于冠状病毒。
M Jackson
SingaporeMay 25
While this is excellent journalism, I'm still wary of science conducted by journalistic survey, or investigative journalism treading on the turf of hard science. As a layperson, some questions come immediately to mind. If the higher seroprance estimates are indeed the case, would India have seen the marked second wave it has, in recent weeks? Wouldn't a high seroprence have dampened a second wave markedly? Equally, wouldn't high seroprance indicate perhaps low mortality incidence in the population, and what might perhaps be explanatory factors? Are Indian homes in the summer so well ventilated, compared to the climate-controlled homes of the West (especially in winter) that cases tend to be mild, as viral load is low, in most infection situations? As to mortality undercounts, spot checks by Indian newspapers at crematoriums indicate undercounts of 5x-20x, but the reports note that this is not adjusted for the time lag between actual, confirmed death figures and on the ground spot checks. The official figures tend to lag, by a couple of weeks, at least. It's a complicated subject, and requires some context, which I think the article could have provided more of. Lest we get too smug, note that New York State alone had 1,100 deaths in April. In other times, that would have been considered a catastrophic epidemic. It would also have been good if the article had noted the sharp fall off in cases in recent days in India, but in line with official projections.
虽然这是优秀的新闻工作，但我仍然对新闻调查或踏入硬科学领域的调查性新闻工作的科学性保持警惕。作为一个外行，一些问题会立刻浮现在脑海中。如果更高的血清预测估计确实如此，印度会不会看到最近几周出现的明显的第二波？高血清阳性率不会明显抑制第二波吗？同样，高血清阳性率是否意味着人口中的低死亡发生率，可能的解释因素是什么？与西方（尤其是冬天）被气候影响的家庭相比，印度家庭在夏季是否通风更良好，以至于在大多数感染情况下，病毒载量较低，病例往往较轻？至于死亡人数不足，印度报纸在火葬场进行的抽查显示，死亡人数不足5倍至20倍，但报告指出，这并没有根据实际确认死亡人数与实地抽查之间的时间差进行调整。官方数据往往会滞后，至少要几周。这是一个复杂的主题，需要一些背景，我认为这篇文章可以提供更多的内容。为了不让我们太沾沾自喜，请注意，仅纽约州在4月份就有1100人死亡。在其他时候，这会被认为是一种灾难性的流行病。如果这篇文章注意到印度最近几天的案件数量急剧下降，与官方预测相符，也会是一件好事。
SingaporeMay 25
While this is excellent journalism, I'm still wary of science conducted by journalistic survey, or investigative journalism treading on the turf of hard science. As a layperson, some questions come immediately to mind. If the higher seroprance estimates are indeed the case, would India have seen the marked second wave it has, in recent weeks? Wouldn't a high seroprence have dampened a second wave markedly? Equally, wouldn't high seroprance indicate perhaps low mortality incidence in the population, and what might perhaps be explanatory factors? Are Indian homes in the summer so well ventilated, compared to the climate-controlled homes of the West (especially in winter) that cases tend to be mild, as viral load is low, in most infection situations? As to mortality undercounts, spot checks by Indian newspapers at crematoriums indicate undercounts of 5x-20x, but the reports note that this is not adjusted for the time lag between actual, confirmed death figures and on the ground spot checks. The official figures tend to lag, by a couple of weeks, at least. It's a complicated subject, and requires some context, which I think the article could have provided more of. Lest we get too smug, note that New York State alone had 1,100 deaths in April. In other times, that would have been considered a catastrophic epidemic. It would also have been good if the article had noted the sharp fall off in cases in recent days in India, but in line with official projections.
虽然这是优秀的新闻工作，但我仍然对新闻调查或踏入硬科学领域的调查性新闻工作的科学性保持警惕。作为一个外行，一些问题会立刻浮现在脑海中。如果更高的血清预测估计确实如此，印度会不会看到最近几周出现的明显的第二波？高血清阳性率不会明显抑制第二波吗？同样，高血清阳性率是否意味着人口中的低死亡发生率，可能的解释因素是什么？与西方（尤其是冬天）被气候影响的家庭相比，印度家庭在夏季是否通风更良好，以至于在大多数感染情况下，病毒载量较低，病例往往较轻？至于死亡人数不足，印度报纸在火葬场进行的抽查显示，死亡人数不足5倍至20倍，但报告指出，这并没有根据实际确认死亡人数与实地抽查之间的时间差进行调整。官方数据往往会滞后，至少要几周。这是一个复杂的主题，需要一些背景，我认为这篇文章可以提供更多的内容。为了不让我们太沾沾自喜，请注意，仅纽约州在4月份就有1100人死亡。在其他时候，这会被认为是一种灾难性的流行病。如果这篇文章注意到印度最近几天的案件数量急剧下降，与官方预测相符，也会是一件好事。
Ravi
ChicagoMay 25
The death toll in India somewhere between 2.4-3.5 million. At least 500million people have been infected. While the those who have died will be a grim reminder to the tragedy and enormous scale of mismanagement by the current govt. The ginormous scale of infected population with lingering after effects will lead to an unprecedented healthcare crisis in the coming years causing untold socio-economic hardship for every strat of society. Things were already strained in India. The Covid pandemic has exposed the underbelly of poor public policy and crony fascism practiced by the current BJP govt in power. Pushing the country at least 50 years into the past!
印度的死亡人数大约在240万到350万之间。至少有5亿人被感染。而那些已经死亡的人将是对目前的政府巨大规模的管理不善的一个残酷提醒。巨大规模的感染人口和挥之不去的后遗症将导致一个前所未有的医疗危机，未来几年中，将在每一个社会阶层造成无数的社会经济困难。印度的情况已经很紧张了。新冠暴露了当前执政的人民党政府糟糕的公共政策和裙带关系的弱点。把这个国家发展推迟了至少50年前！
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
ChicagoMay 25
The death toll in India somewhere between 2.4-3.5 million. At least 500million people have been infected. While the those who have died will be a grim reminder to the tragedy and enormous scale of mismanagement by the current govt. The ginormous scale of infected population with lingering after effects will lead to an unprecedented healthcare crisis in the coming years causing untold socio-economic hardship for every strat of society. Things were already strained in India. The Covid pandemic has exposed the underbelly of poor public policy and crony fascism practiced by the current BJP govt in power. Pushing the country at least 50 years into the past!
印度的死亡人数大约在240万到350万之间。至少有5亿人被感染。而那些已经死亡的人将是对目前的政府巨大规模的管理不善的一个残酷提醒。巨大规模的感染人口和挥之不去的后遗症将导致一个前所未有的医疗危机，未来几年中，将在每一个社会阶层造成无数的社会经济困难。印度的情况已经很紧张了。新冠暴露了当前执政的人民党政府糟糕的公共政策和裙带关系的弱点。把这个国家发展推迟了至少50年前！
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
T. Cavendish
New YorkMay 25
For anyone paying attention to the numbers out of countries like India, Brazil, China and Russia, among others, it's long been clear that the official tallies do not make sense. It's not just the lack of testing, which is obvious -- it's also inexplicably low death rates, particularly in places where medical facilities and quality of care fall well short of other countries reporting much higher fatality rates. Not only does underreporting make epidemiology more difficult, it also provides an argument for the conspiracy theorists to claim the Coronavirus is overblown or even a hoax. That's a problem when things like basic hygiene and preventative measures have been politicized, and when a sizable portion of the population refuses to get vaccinated.
对于那些关注印度、巴西、中国和俄罗斯等国的数据的人来说，很显然，官方的统计数字毫无意义。这不仅仅是因为缺乏检测，这是显而易见的——还有令人费解的低死亡率，特别是在医疗设施和医疗质量远远低于其他国家报告的高死亡率的地方。报道不足不仅使流行病学更加困难，也为阴谋论者声称冠状病毒是夸大甚至是骗局提供了论据。当基本卫生和预防措施被政治化，当相当一部分人拒绝接种疫苗时，这就是一个问题。
New YorkMay 25
For anyone paying attention to the numbers out of countries like India, Brazil, China and Russia, among others, it's long been clear that the official tallies do not make sense. It's not just the lack of testing, which is obvious -- it's also inexplicably low death rates, particularly in places where medical facilities and quality of care fall well short of other countries reporting much higher fatality rates. Not only does underreporting make epidemiology more difficult, it also provides an argument for the conspiracy theorists to claim the Coronavirus is overblown or even a hoax. That's a problem when things like basic hygiene and preventative measures have been politicized, and when a sizable portion of the population refuses to get vaccinated.
对于那些关注印度、巴西、中国和俄罗斯等国的数据的人来说，很显然，官方的统计数字毫无意义。这不仅仅是因为缺乏检测，这是显而易见的——还有令人费解的低死亡率，特别是在医疗设施和医疗质量远远低于其他国家报告的高死亡率的地方。报道不足不仅使流行病学更加困难，也为阴谋论者声称冠状病毒是夸大甚至是骗局提供了论据。当基本卫生和预防措施被政治化，当相当一部分人拒绝接种疫苗时，这就是一个问题。
RB
BombayMay 25
My own estimate. Start with the only city in India which has accurate death data for 2020. Bombay reported 111,000 deaths in 2020 VS 91000 in 2019. Assuming all excess deaths are due to Covid, that is 20,000 Covid deaths in 2020 vs 11,000 reported ones. Bombay has so far reported a 14630 deaths - or a death rate of 1150 per million. Assuming the same rate of underreporting, Bombay’s actual death rate per million is 2300. Applying that to India’s urban population of 500 mm, you get 1.15 mm urban deaths. Assuming the death rate in rural India (pop: 900 mm), is half of that, you get 1.05 mm rural deaths - for a total of 2.3 mm
我自己的估计。从印度唯一一个拥有2020年准确死亡数据的城市开始。孟买在报告中说，2020年死亡人数为11.1万人，而2019年为9.1万人。假设所有超额死亡都是由新冠造成的，那么2020年新冠死亡人数为2万人，而报告的死亡人数为1.1万人。到目前为止，孟买已经报告了14630人死亡，即每百万人中有1150人死亡。假设同样的漏报率，孟买每百万人口的实际死亡率是2300，如果把这个数字应用到印度500mm的城市人口中，你会得到1.15mm的城市死亡人数。假设印度农村地区的死亡率（pop:900mm）是这一数字的一半，那么农村地区的死亡率为1.05mm，总死亡率为2.3mm
BombayMay 25
My own estimate. Start with the only city in India which has accurate death data for 2020. Bombay reported 111,000 deaths in 2020 VS 91000 in 2019. Assuming all excess deaths are due to Covid, that is 20,000 Covid deaths in 2020 vs 11,000 reported ones. Bombay has so far reported a 14630 deaths - or a death rate of 1150 per million. Assuming the same rate of underreporting, Bombay’s actual death rate per million is 2300. Applying that to India’s urban population of 500 mm, you get 1.15 mm urban deaths. Assuming the death rate in rural India (pop: 900 mm), is half of that, you get 1.05 mm rural deaths - for a total of 2.3 mm
我自己的估计。从印度唯一一个拥有2020年准确死亡数据的城市开始。孟买在报告中说，2020年死亡人数为11.1万人，而2019年为9.1万人。假设所有超额死亡都是由新冠造成的，那么2020年新冠死亡人数为2万人，而报告的死亡人数为1.1万人。到目前为止，孟买已经报告了14630人死亡，即每百万人中有1150人死亡。假设同样的漏报率，孟买每百万人口的实际死亡率是2300，如果把这个数字应用到印度500mm的城市人口中，你会得到1.15mm的城市死亡人数。假设印度农村地区的死亡率（pop:900mm）是这一数字的一半，那么农村地区的死亡率为1.05mm，总死亡率为2.3mm
Rob
North CarolinaMay 25
What a devastating human tragedy. The scale of it is mind-boggling.
多惨的人间悲剧啊。它的规模令人难以置信。
North CarolinaMay 25
What a devastating human tragedy. The scale of it is mind-boggling.
多惨的人间悲剧啊。它的规模令人难以置信。
Mark McIntyre
Los AngelesMay 25
Given the widespread poverty and crowded living conditions in India, it's surprising it took this long to become a disaster. The Indian strain is already in the U.S. and as the virus continues to mutate, folks in this country refusing to be vaccinated may regret it. That number is about 25% of our population and cause for concern.
考虑到印度普遍的贫困和拥挤的生活条件，它花了这么长时间才变成一场灾难是令人惊讶的。印度毒株已经在美国，随着病毒的不断变异，这个国家拒绝接种疫苗的人可能会后悔。这一数字约占我国人口的25%，值得关注。
Los AngelesMay 25
Given the widespread poverty and crowded living conditions in India, it's surprising it took this long to become a disaster. The Indian strain is already in the U.S. and as the virus continues to mutate, folks in this country refusing to be vaccinated may regret it. That number is about 25% of our population and cause for concern.
考虑到印度普遍的贫困和拥挤的生活条件，它花了这么长时间才变成一场灾难是令人惊讶的。印度毒株已经在美国，随着病毒的不断变异，这个国家拒绝接种疫苗的人可能会后悔。这一数字约占我国人口的25%，值得关注。
Salil Joshi
Westford, MAMay 25
The data speaks of the sorry state of affairs in India. Very nicely done study indeed. Few Lessons wish India would have learned from the colossal failure pandemic mismanagement and some possible successes of the United States. 1. Two is a crowd – No rallies and congregation 2. Don’t Politicize the Issue – Stop party or faith base segregation of root cause 3. Agility of Decision making – Multiply manufacturing facilities. Very few countries have the capabilityike l Serum, back them up with institute like Haffkin 4. Overcommunicate the public health message - leverage the infrastructure of the health messaging system just like all polio eradication, HIV prevention, or family planning done over the years 5. Accept failures and move on – No shame in bad numbers. Be open with bad news like wastage of 15 million doses of J&J 6. Vaccine management at the central level and Vaccination management at the state level – Do not micromanage 7. Lastly, US experience showed that the federal govt is the game in this system. They can generate money at will, have more political leverage, and must take full responsibility as individual states are simply incapable to take this burden. After all, all India had pledged GOLD to come out of difficult economic conditions just 30 years ago.
这些数据说明了印度令人遗憾的现状。确实做得很好。很少有人希望印度能从管理不善的巨大失败和美国取得的一些成功中吸取教训。1、两个人群问题-没有公众集会和教堂集会2、不要把问题政治化-停止党派或基于宗教信仰的隔阂是根本原因 3、决策的灵活性-制造设施的多元化。很少有国家有像I血清这样的能力，还能让Haffkin这样的研究所来支持他们 4、传播公共卫生信息-利用卫生信息系统的基础设施，就像多年来所有根除脊髓灰质炎、预防艾滋病毒或计划生育的工作一样5、接受失败，继续前进-不为糟糕的数字感到羞耻。对坏消息要公开，比如1500万剂强生疫苗的浪费 6、中央一级的疫苗管理和州一级的疫苗管理-不要微观管理7、最后，美国的经验表明，联邦政府在这个系统中具有优势。它们可以随意创造资金，拥有更多的政治筹码，必须承担全部责任，因为个别国家根本无力承担这一负担。毕竟，就在30年前，全印度都承诺要让普通在线诊断走出困境。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Westford, MAMay 25
The data speaks of the sorry state of affairs in India. Very nicely done study indeed. Few Lessons wish India would have learned from the colossal failure pandemic mismanagement and some possible successes of the United States. 1. Two is a crowd – No rallies and congregation 2. Don’t Politicize the Issue – Stop party or faith base segregation of root cause 3. Agility of Decision making – Multiply manufacturing facilities. Very few countries have the capabilityike l Serum, back them up with institute like Haffkin 4. Overcommunicate the public health message - leverage the infrastructure of the health messaging system just like all polio eradication, HIV prevention, or family planning done over the years 5. Accept failures and move on – No shame in bad numbers. Be open with bad news like wastage of 15 million doses of J&J 6. Vaccine management at the central level and Vaccination management at the state level – Do not micromanage 7. Lastly, US experience showed that the federal govt is the game in this system. They can generate money at will, have more political leverage, and must take full responsibility as individual states are simply incapable to take this burden. After all, all India had pledged GOLD to come out of difficult economic conditions just 30 years ago.
这些数据说明了印度令人遗憾的现状。确实做得很好。很少有人希望印度能从管理不善的巨大失败和美国取得的一些成功中吸取教训。1、两个人群问题-没有公众集会和教堂集会2、不要把问题政治化-停止党派或基于宗教信仰的隔阂是根本原因 3、决策的灵活性-制造设施的多元化。很少有国家有像I血清这样的能力，还能让Haffkin这样的研究所来支持他们 4、传播公共卫生信息-利用卫生信息系统的基础设施，就像多年来所有根除脊髓灰质炎、预防艾滋病毒或计划生育的工作一样5、接受失败，继续前进-不为糟糕的数字感到羞耻。对坏消息要公开，比如1500万剂强生疫苗的浪费 6、中央一级的疫苗管理和州一级的疫苗管理-不要微观管理7、最后，美国的经验表明，联邦政府在这个系统中具有优势。它们可以随意创造资金，拥有更多的政治筹码，必须承担全部责任，因为个别国家根本无力承担这一负担。毕竟，就在30年前，全印度都承诺要让普通在线诊断走出困境。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
John Steve
North AmericaMay 25
The infection fatality rate is probably much higher than 0.15% because some people are dying of a simple lack of oxygen supply which was not a problem in the US.
感染致死率可能远高于0.15%，因为有些人死于单纯的缺氧，而缺氧在美国不是问题。
North AmericaMay 25
The infection fatality rate is probably much higher than 0.15% because some people are dying of a simple lack of oxygen supply which was not a problem in the US.
感染致死率可能远高于0.15%，因为有些人死于单纯的缺氧，而缺氧在美国不是问题。
Sky
NCMay 25
India actually has an obesity rate of 16-30%. And a high rate of type II a diabetes (80 million estimated), which is also a huge comorbidity factor for covid.
印度的肥胖率实际上是16-30%。以及II型a型糖尿病的高发病率（估计为8000万），这也是新冠的一个巨大共病因子。
NCMay 25
India actually has an obesity rate of 16-30%. And a high rate of type II a diabetes (80 million estimated), which is also a huge comorbidity factor for covid.
印度的肥胖率实际上是16-30%。以及II型a型糖尿病的高发病率（估计为8000万），这也是新冠的一个巨大共病因子。
caoni
GAMay 25
AND CDC says no masking wheresoever needed for the vaccinated. what a joke?! this is what you get when everything is politicalized in US
疾病预防控制中心说，接种疫苗后无论在什么地方都不需要带口罩。开什么玩笑？！这就是当一切都被政治化后，你在美国可以得到的信息。
GAMay 25
AND CDC says no masking wheresoever needed for the vaccinated. what a joke?! this is what you get when everything is politicalized in US
疾病预防控制中心说，接种疫苗后无论在什么地方都不需要带口罩。开什么玩笑？！这就是当一切都被政治化后，你在美国可以得到的信息。
Anupam Chakrabarti
KolkataMay 25
The total number of infections can safely be said to be 15 times the official cases. Deaths would be 2.5 to 3 times. This estimate would go upwards now with rural invasion.
感染的总人数可以说是官方病例的15倍。死亡人数是2.5到3倍。随着农村被入侵，这一数值估计会上升。
KolkataMay 25
The total number of infections can safely be said to be 15 times the official cases. Deaths would be 2.5 to 3 times. This estimate would go upwards now with rural invasion.
感染的总人数可以说是官方病例的15倍。死亡人数是2.5到3倍。随着农村被入侵，这一数值估计会上升。
David
CalifMay 25
Very tragic - government failing to manage the pandemic risk. People should not confuse the responsible party for this misery: The prime minister who hoped that the pandemic will skip India and did not take proper steps to protect his people. In the U.S., we had similar tragedy. If you are a driver of a bus and you drove recklessly endangering your passengers, I am sure you go to jail. But the failed politicians skip any punishment after killing hundred of thousands of their own people by their own recklessness. Somethings very wrong here.
非常悲惨的是，政府未能控制大流行的风险。人们不应该混淆造成这场灾难的责任方：希望疫情不会蔓延到印度，却没有采取适当措施保护本国人民的总理。在美国，我们也有类似的悲剧。如果你是一名公共汽车司机，你不顾后果地开车危及乘客，我肯定你会坐牢。但失败的政客们在自己的鲁莽杀害了数十万人民之后，却没有任何惩罚。有些事情很不对劲。
CalifMay 25
Very tragic - government failing to manage the pandemic risk. People should not confuse the responsible party for this misery: The prime minister who hoped that the pandemic will skip India and did not take proper steps to protect his people. In the U.S., we had similar tragedy. If you are a driver of a bus and you drove recklessly endangering your passengers, I am sure you go to jail. But the failed politicians skip any punishment after killing hundred of thousands of their own people by their own recklessness. Somethings very wrong here.
非常悲惨的是，政府未能控制大流行的风险。人们不应该混淆造成这场灾难的责任方：希望疫情不会蔓延到印度，却没有采取适当措施保护本国人民的总理。在美国，我们也有类似的悲剧。如果你是一名公共汽车司机，你不顾后果地开车危及乘客，我肯定你会坐牢。但失败的政客们在自己的鲁莽杀害了数十万人民之后，却没有任何惩罚。有些事情很不对劲。
ML
NYCMay 25
This article makes perfect sense. Just out of curiousity i took the US death rate as a % of infections and applied it to india's posted numbers and the death rate almost doubled and it's very clear that the reported infection rate is very small compared to reality due to lack of available testing. I've also been watching the numbers in Russia during the pandemic and the "reported" numbers barely moved compared to other countries. I'd be very interested in having this same type of analysis done in Russia.
这篇文章很有道理。出于好奇，我把美国的死亡率作为感染率的一个百分比，并将其应用到印度公布的数字中，死亡率几乎翻了一番，很明显，由于缺乏可用的检测，报告的感染率与实际情况相比要小。我也一直在观察俄罗斯新冠大流行期间的数字，与其他国家相比，“报告”的数字几乎没有变化。我很有兴趣在俄罗斯做同样的分析。
NYCMay 25
This article makes perfect sense. Just out of curiousity i took the US death rate as a % of infections and applied it to india's posted numbers and the death rate almost doubled and it's very clear that the reported infection rate is very small compared to reality due to lack of available testing. I've also been watching the numbers in Russia during the pandemic and the "reported" numbers barely moved compared to other countries. I'd be very interested in having this same type of analysis done in Russia.
这篇文章很有道理。出于好奇，我把美国的死亡率作为感染率的一个百分比，并将其应用到印度公布的数字中，死亡率几乎翻了一番，很明显，由于缺乏可用的检测，报告的感染率与实际情况相比要小。我也一直在观察俄罗斯新冠大流行期间的数字，与其他国家相比，“报告”的数字几乎没有变化。我很有兴趣在俄罗斯做同样的分析。
Robert
SeattleMay 25
Well done. A few thoughts: Do the serosurveys account for the relatively significant number of people who have had Covid-19 but have not produced measurable amounts of antibodies? Even the more likely scenario here (1.6 million deaths), which assumes a fatality rate that is roughly the same as the USA's. Is that optimistic? India's population skews younger than the USA's. On the other hand, the disease has been more deadly for young people in India. Moreover, there is a difference between the Indian and USA health care systems. The Indian variant has begun to displace the other variants in the UK. It appears to be more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (between a couple percentage points and 50% more transmissible).
做得好。一些想法：血清调查是否说明有相当数量的人感染了Covid-19，但没有产生可测量数量的抗体？假设死亡率与美国大致相同，更可能的情况是160万人死亡。这乐观吗？印度的人口比美国年轻。另一方面，这种疾病对印度的年轻人来说更致命。此外，印度和美国的医疗保健制度也存在差异。印度变种已经开始取代英国的其他变种。它似乎比B.1.1.7更易传播（在几个百分点到50%之间）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
SeattleMay 25
Well done. A few thoughts: Do the serosurveys account for the relatively significant number of people who have had Covid-19 but have not produced measurable amounts of antibodies? Even the more likely scenario here (1.6 million deaths), which assumes a fatality rate that is roughly the same as the USA's. Is that optimistic? India's population skews younger than the USA's. On the other hand, the disease has been more deadly for young people in India. Moreover, there is a difference between the Indian and USA health care systems. The Indian variant has begun to displace the other variants in the UK. It appears to be more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (between a couple percentage points and 50% more transmissible).
做得好。一些想法：血清调查是否说明有相当数量的人感染了Covid-19，但没有产生可测量数量的抗体？假设死亡率与美国大致相同，更可能的情况是160万人死亡。这乐观吗？印度的人口比美国年轻。另一方面，这种疾病对印度的年轻人来说更致命。此外，印度和美国的医疗保健制度也存在差异。印度变种已经开始取代英国的其他变种。它似乎比B.1.1.7更易传播（在几个百分点到50%之间）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Man From Uncle
New EnglandMay 25
Whatever the true Covid-19 death toll in India may be doesn’t make the loss of life any less tragic. I read someone comment that they are done with this pandemic. My question is is the pandemic done with us? I honestly don’t know.
无论印度真正的Covid-19死亡人数是多少，都不会让生命损失的悲剧减轻。我读到有人评论说他们已经对这种流行病了如指掌了。我的问题是大流行已经结束了吗？我真的不知道。
New EnglandMay 25
Whatever the true Covid-19 death toll in India may be doesn’t make the loss of life any less tragic. I read someone comment that they are done with this pandemic. My question is is the pandemic done with us? I honestly don’t know.
无论印度真正的Covid-19死亡人数是多少，都不会让生命损失的悲剧减轻。我读到有人评论说他们已经对这种流行病了如指掌了。我的问题是大流行已经结束了吗？我真的不知道。
SRS
Stamford, CTMay 25
The analysis starts with serosurveys conducted by India's Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) as its inputs. However, if the serosurveys were "correct", then large swathes of India, including cities like Mumbai and Delhi, would have developed herd immunity to Covid in Wave 1 of the pandemic. Then, pray tell, how did Wave 2 happen and why was it 6-7x worse than Wave 1, and particularly in those cities where the serosurveys supposedly "indicated" that they had herd immunuity? A better approach that relies on real data would be to use data on actual deaths. In India, EVERY SINGLE DEATH is recorded, even if the cause is not recorded correctly. There are NO private crematoria, and death certificates - which are extremely important to families that need to claim death benefits - can only be issued AFTER a crematorium manager signs off. For example, the city of Chennai has all death certificates available online within 21 days of all deaths (Google "Corporation of Chennai" and click on the lix for death certificates). So, data on deaths in 2019, 2020 and 2021 (to date) is available to scrupulous data scientists who go looking for it. Why not start with that, rather than serosurveys which were clearly, monstrously wrong? Once you have data on total deaths, it is easy enough to estimate the proportion of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 over 2019 that could reasonably be attributed to Covid.
该分析从印度医学研究理事会（ICMR）进行的血清学调查开始。然而，如果血清学调查是“正确的”，那么印度的大片地区，包括孟买和德里等城市，将在第1波流感大流行中发展出对Covid的群体免疫。那么，请告诉我，第2波是怎么发生的，为什么比第1波差6-7倍，特别是在那些血清调查被认为“表明”他们有群体免疫力的城市？依赖真实数据的更好方法是使用实际死亡数据。在印度，就算死因没有被正确记录，但是每一个死亡都有记录。因为印度没有私人火葬场，只有在火葬场经理签字后才能颁发死亡证明，而死亡证明对需要领取死亡抚恤金的家庭极为重要。例如，金奈市在所有死亡事件发生后的21天内就有了所有的死亡证明（谷歌“金奈公司”并点击死亡证明链接）。因此，2019年、2020年和2021年（迄今为止）的死亡数据可供仔细寻找数据的科学家使用。为什么不从这个开始，而不是从那些明显的、可怕的错误开始呢？一旦有了总死亡人数的数据，就可以很容易地估计出2020年和2021年超过2019年的超额死亡人数比例，这可以合理地归因于新冠。
Stamford, CTMay 25
The analysis starts with serosurveys conducted by India's Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) as its inputs. However, if the serosurveys were "correct", then large swathes of India, including cities like Mumbai and Delhi, would have developed herd immunity to Covid in Wave 1 of the pandemic. Then, pray tell, how did Wave 2 happen and why was it 6-7x worse than Wave 1, and particularly in those cities where the serosurveys supposedly "indicated" that they had herd immunuity? A better approach that relies on real data would be to use data on actual deaths. In India, EVERY SINGLE DEATH is recorded, even if the cause is not recorded correctly. There are NO private crematoria, and death certificates - which are extremely important to families that need to claim death benefits - can only be issued AFTER a crematorium manager signs off. For example, the city of Chennai has all death certificates available online within 21 days of all deaths (Google "Corporation of Chennai" and click on the lix for death certificates). So, data on deaths in 2019, 2020 and 2021 (to date) is available to scrupulous data scientists who go looking for it. Why not start with that, rather than serosurveys which were clearly, monstrously wrong? Once you have data on total deaths, it is easy enough to estimate the proportion of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 over 2019 that could reasonably be attributed to Covid.
该分析从印度医学研究理事会（ICMR）进行的血清学调查开始。然而，如果血清学调查是“正确的”，那么印度的大片地区，包括孟买和德里等城市，将在第1波流感大流行中发展出对Covid的群体免疫。那么，请告诉我，第2波是怎么发生的，为什么比第1波差6-7倍，特别是在那些血清调查被认为“表明”他们有群体免疫力的城市？依赖真实数据的更好方法是使用实际死亡数据。在印度，就算死因没有被正确记录，但是每一个死亡都有记录。因为印度没有私人火葬场，只有在火葬场经理签字后才能颁发死亡证明，而死亡证明对需要领取死亡抚恤金的家庭极为重要。例如，金奈市在所有死亡事件发生后的21天内就有了所有的死亡证明（谷歌“金奈公司”并点击死亡证明链接）。因此，2019年、2020年和2021年（迄今为止）的死亡数据可供仔细寻找数据的科学家使用。为什么不从这个开始，而不是从那些明显的、可怕的错误开始呢？一旦有了总死亡人数的数据，就可以很容易地估计出2020年和2021年超过2019年的超额死亡人数比例，这可以合理地归因于新冠。
SeattleMay 25
percentage fatality rates assumptions are like throwing a stone in the dark. One will arrive at the correct rate of fatalities by making a theoretical estimate of covid fatalities when people are deprived of basic medical facilities. In other words, how many people will die if they got covid and received no treatment at all, needs to be calculated? I say that because that is how many in India are dying. That is not how covid patients in the developed died -- they died despite medical intervention. So rates prent in the US or other well-documented nations should not be used here -- They are probably good at medical intervention in the first place and will report lesser fatality rates.
死亡率百分比的假设就像在黑暗中扔石头。当人们被剥夺基本医疗设施时，人们将通过对covid死亡的理论估计得出正确的死亡率。换句话说，有多少人会死，如果他们得到冠状病毒，并没有接受任何治疗，需要计算？我这么说是因为印度有这么多人正在死亡。发达国家的covid患者并不是这样死亡的——他们尽管接受了医疗干预，还是死了。因此，在美国或其他有充分记录的国家的死亡率不应该在这里使用——它们可能在一开始就因为完善的医疗，呈现比较低的死亡率。
percentage fatality rates assumptions are like throwing a stone in the dark. One will arrive at the correct rate of fatalities by making a theoretical estimate of covid fatalities when people are deprived of basic medical facilities. In other words, how many people will die if they got covid and received no treatment at all, needs to be calculated? I say that because that is how many in India are dying. That is not how covid patients in the developed died -- they died despite medical intervention. So rates prent in the US or other well-documented nations should not be used here -- They are probably good at medical intervention in the first place and will report lesser fatality rates.
死亡率百分比的假设就像在黑暗中扔石头。当人们被剥夺基本医疗设施时，人们将通过对covid死亡的理论估计得出正确的死亡率。换句话说，有多少人会死，如果他们得到冠状病毒，并没有接受任何治疗，需要计算？我这么说是因为印度有这么多人正在死亡。发达国家的covid患者并不是这样死亡的——他们尽管接受了医疗干预，还是死了。因此，在美国或其他有充分记录的国家的死亡率不应该在这里使用——它们可能在一开始就因为完善的医疗，呈现比较低的死亡率。
WisconsinMay 25
Several of my educated friends in India believe that all this is a concerted effort by the international media to make India look bad.
我认识的印度的几个受过教育的朋友认为，所有这些都是国际媒体的共同努力，让印度看起来很糟糕。
Several of my educated friends in India believe that all this is a concerted effort by the international media to make India look bad.
我认识的印度的几个受过教育的朋友认为，所有这些都是国际媒体的共同努力，让印度看起来很糟糕。
IndiaMay 25
Very interesting read. There is little doubt even among ordinary Indians like myself living in India now that the CoVID data is inaccurate and misleading. That the government is worried about its image of how it handled the Pandemic is well known. It still focusses on PR rather than taking steps to improve vaccine availability and mitigating the infection. Having said that, I find it incredibly hard to believe that 1/2 of adult population is infected. And since different states have different levels of infection, it could in theory mean that some states could have reached 75-80%. Living here (in South India) in the midst of all the tragedy, I am not sure that is the case. The numbers are significantly higher, maybe multiples of 10, but we don't see those signs of every second person being infected. We still have to step out to buy groceries / vegetables and other essentials - things could be quite different I suppose if we have every other person infected. I am not sure of the number of deaths and could believe those numbers though.
读起来很有趣。即使是像我这样生活在印度的普通印度人，现在新冠数据是不准确和具有误导性的，这一点也毫无疑问。众所周知，政府担心自己在应对这场大流行中产生的形象不好。它仍然专注于公关，而不是采取措施，以提高疫苗的可用性和减轻感染。话虽如此，我发现很难相信有1/2的成年人被感染。由于不同的州有不同程度的感染，理论上可能意味着一些州可能已经达到75-80%。生活在这里（在南印度）在所有的悲剧中，我不确定是不是这样。这个数字明显更高，可能是10的倍数，但我们没有看到每一个人都被感染的迹象。我们还得出去买日用品/蔬菜和其他必需品——如果我们让其他人都感染了，情况可能会大不相同。我不确定死亡人数，但我可以相信这些数字。
Very interesting read. There is little doubt even among ordinary Indians like myself living in India now that the CoVID data is inaccurate and misleading. That the government is worried about its image of how it handled the Pandemic is well known. It still focusses on PR rather than taking steps to improve vaccine availability and mitigating the infection. Having said that, I find it incredibly hard to believe that 1/2 of adult population is infected. And since different states have different levels of infection, it could in theory mean that some states could have reached 75-80%. Living here (in South India) in the midst of all the tragedy, I am not sure that is the case. The numbers are significantly higher, maybe multiples of 10, but we don't see those signs of every second person being infected. We still have to step out to buy groceries / vegetables and other essentials - things could be quite different I suppose if we have every other person infected. I am not sure of the number of deaths and could believe those numbers though.
读起来很有趣。即使是像我这样生活在印度的普通印度人，现在新冠数据是不准确和具有误导性的，这一点也毫无疑问。众所周知，政府担心自己在应对这场大流行中产生的形象不好。它仍然专注于公关，而不是采取措施，以提高疫苗的可用性和减轻感染。话虽如此，我发现很难相信有1/2的成年人被感染。由于不同的州有不同程度的感染，理论上可能意味着一些州可能已经达到75-80%。生活在这里（在南印度）在所有的悲剧中，我不确定是不是这样。这个数字明显更高，可能是10的倍数，但我们没有看到每一个人都被感染的迹象。我们还得出去买日用品/蔬菜和其他必需品——如果我们让其他人都感染了，情况可能会大不相同。我不确定死亡人数，但我可以相信这些数字。
Dan Kravitz
Harpswell, MaineMay 25
Yes, it's worse than bad and Modi is lying through his teeth. To put things in perspective, the likely scenario is that barely 1 in 1000 Indians have died. If there are 539 million infections, that's almost half the population but I see no indications from anywhere that the number of people disabled with severe symptoms is remotely close to that level. Dan Kravitz
是的，这比糟糕还要糟糕，莫迪在撒谎。从长远来看，可能的情况是，每1000名印度人中只有1人死亡。如果有5.39亿人感染，这几乎是人口的一半，但我看不到任何迹象表明，有严重症状的人数远远接近这一水平。
Harpswell, MaineMay 25
Yes, it's worse than bad and Modi is lying through his teeth. To put things in perspective, the likely scenario is that barely 1 in 1000 Indians have died. If there are 539 million infections, that's almost half the population but I see no indications from anywhere that the number of people disabled with severe symptoms is remotely close to that level. Dan Kravitz
是的，这比糟糕还要糟糕，莫迪在撒谎。从长远来看，可能的情况是，每1000名印度人中只有1人死亡。如果有5.39亿人感染，这几乎是人口的一半，但我看不到任何迹象表明，有严重症状的人数远远接近这一水平。
NashvilleMay 25
It is very unclear how China came out of it. The statistics of US and India and Western Europe and Brazil does not help understand China's case. Are people immune to Covid; because any amount of lockdown cannot stop a rebound.
目前还不清楚中国是如何走出困境的。美国、印度、西欧和巴西的统计数据无助于理解中国的情况。人们对新冠免疫了吗？因为任何程度的封锁都阻止不了反弹。
It is very unclear how China came out of it. The statistics of US and India and Western Europe and Brazil does not help understand China's case. Are people immune to Covid; because any amount of lockdown cannot stop a rebound.
目前还不清楚中国是如何走出困境的。美国、印度、西欧和巴西的统计数据无助于理解中国的情况。人们对新冠免疫了吗？因为任何程度的封锁都阻止不了反弹。
MumbaiMay 25
Well, that could be! But the trend need to be noted that corona cases are coming down. There could be genuine reasons due to lack of infra structure in the interior of India or could be to keep up the sagging morale of the country and the brave warriors. Has anybody tried to analyze why there is no statistics about Corona incidences of causality even at the height of the pandemic in that country? They are effectively able to withstand even surmises on the facts about that country. Some analysis shows China is evolving as an example of what should be ideal set up to govern a county and make it prosperous! Only time will tell! It is unfortunate that instead of headlong facing a calamity and alleviating the suffering of human beings at large, the free world often try to make a fast buck out of a calamity!
好吧，可能是真的！但需要注意的是，新冠病例正在减少。这可能是由于印度内陆缺乏基础设施造成的，也可能是为了保持这个国家和勇敢的战士们萎靡不振的士气。有没有人试过分析为什么即使在这个国家大流行最严重的时候，也没有关于因果关系、影响范围的统计数据？他们甚至能有效地抵挡人们对这个国家事实的猜测。一些分析表明，中国正在演变为一个典范，一个理想的国家应该建立什么样的治理和繁荣！只有时间能证明一切！不幸的是，自由世界并没有直面灾难，减轻全人类的痛苦，反而常常试图从灾难中快速获利！
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Well, that could be! But the trend need to be noted that corona cases are coming down. There could be genuine reasons due to lack of infra structure in the interior of India or could be to keep up the sagging morale of the country and the brave warriors. Has anybody tried to analyze why there is no statistics about Corona incidences of causality even at the height of the pandemic in that country? They are effectively able to withstand even surmises on the facts about that country. Some analysis shows China is evolving as an example of what should be ideal set up to govern a county and make it prosperous! Only time will tell! It is unfortunate that instead of headlong facing a calamity and alleviating the suffering of human beings at large, the free world often try to make a fast buck out of a calamity!
好吧，可能是真的！但需要注意的是，新冠病例正在减少。这可能是由于印度内陆缺乏基础设施造成的，也可能是为了保持这个国家和勇敢的战士们萎靡不振的士气。有没有人试过分析为什么即使在这个国家大流行最严重的时候，也没有关于因果关系、影响范围的统计数据？他们甚至能有效地抵挡人们对这个国家事实的猜测。一些分析表明，中国正在演变为一个典范，一个理想的国家应该建立什么样的治理和繁荣！只有时间能证明一切！不幸的是，自由世界并没有直面灾难，减轻全人类的痛苦，反而常常试图从灾难中快速获利！
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
BostonMay 25
The total population (on record, if correct) of India is 1,392,123,725. I find it hard to get my head around the idea that, conservatively, nearly 1/3 of the population is infected. The explanation here is quite lucid, it just seems unlikely to me that as much as half the population is infected.
印度的总人口（如果记录正确的话）是1392123725。保守地说，近三分之一的人口受到感染，我很难理解这个观点。这里的解释是相当清楚的，只是在我看来，不太可能有多达一半的人口受到感染。
The total population (on record, if correct) of India is 1,392,123,725. I find it hard to get my head around the idea that, conservatively, nearly 1/3 of the population is infected. The explanation here is quite lucid, it just seems unlikely to me that as much as half the population is infected.
印度的总人口（如果记录正确的话）是1392123725。保守地说，近三分之一的人口受到感染，我很难理解这个观点。这里的解释是相当清楚的，只是在我看来，不太可能有多达一半的人口受到感染。
NCMay 25
This is a great mathematical projection of what is actually going on in India. The saddest part is so many lives could have been saved if the authorities had been prepared with proper medical stockpiles.
这是对印度实际情况的一个很好的数学预测。最可悲的是，如果当局准备好了适当的医疗储备，那么许多人的生命本可以得救。
This is a great mathematical projection of what is actually going on in India. The saddest part is so many lives could have been saved if the authorities had been prepared with proper medical stockpiles.
这是对印度实际情况的一个很好的数学预测。最可悲的是，如果当局准备好了适当的医疗储备，那么许多人的生命本可以得救。
San JoseMay 25
Excuse me for trying to be optimist here. Given the numbers did India reach herd immunity through infection?
请原谅我在这里表现得很乐观。鉴于这些数字，印度是否通过感染达到了群体免疫力了？
Excuse me for trying to be optimist here. Given the numbers did India reach herd immunity through infection?
请原谅我在这里表现得很乐观。鉴于这些数字，印度是否通过感染达到了群体免疫力了？
NashvilleMay 25
It is not clear where to come to terms with estimations regarding this tragedy. The fact that there is some data from India itself is a new development! Is the data on US correct; has everyone been screened, has a sero-survey been done? How is the data going to be standardized against the mean ages of Nations? There was a certain feeling that India being younger would show lower CFR as young people recover better. Estimates in US could be off by a factor of two. Estimates in India could be off by a factor of four, but would require normalization with age and could settle at a factor of three.
这场悲剧将会演化成什么样子现在还不清楚。印度自己也有一些数据，这是一个新的进展！我们的数据是否正确；每个人都做过筛检吗？做过血清检测吗？如何将数据与各国的平均年龄进行标准化？有一种感觉是，随着年轻人恢复得更好，印度越年轻，病死率越低。美国的估计数字可能相差两倍。印度的估计可能会偏离四分之一，但需要随着年龄的增长而正常化，可能会达到三分之一。
It is not clear where to come to terms with estimations regarding this tragedy. The fact that there is some data from India itself is a new development! Is the data on US correct; has everyone been screened, has a sero-survey been done? How is the data going to be standardized against the mean ages of Nations? There was a certain feeling that India being younger would show lower CFR as young people recover better. Estimates in US could be off by a factor of two. Estimates in India could be off by a factor of four, but would require normalization with age and could settle at a factor of three.
这场悲剧将会演化成什么样子现在还不清楚。印度自己也有一些数据，这是一个新的进展！我们的数据是否正确；每个人都做过筛检吗？做过血清检测吗？如何将数据与各国的平均年龄进行标准化？有一种感觉是，随着年轻人恢复得更好，印度越年轻，病死率越低。美国的估计数字可能相差两倍。印度的估计可能会偏离四分之一，但需要随着年龄的增长而正常化，可能会达到三分之一。
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