帕特里克 · 布坎南：黯然失色的欧洲
正文翻译
For centuries up to and including the 20th, Europe seemed the central pivot of world history. Then came the Great Civil War of the West, our Thirty Years’ War (1914-1945), where all of the great European powers—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia—along with almost all of the rest, fought some of history’s greatest battles.
Result: Europe’s greatest nations were all bloodied. All of Europe’s empires fell. The colonial peoples were all largely liberated and began the great migration to the mother countries. And Europe was split between a U.S.-led West and a Moscow-dominated Soviet bloc.
在包括20世纪在内的几个世纪里，欧洲一直是世界历史的中心，然后，西方的大内战来了，我们的三十年战争(1914-1945) ，所有的欧洲大国——英国、法国、德国、意大利、俄罗斯，连同几乎所有其它国家，经历了一些人类历史上最大的战事。
结果：欧洲最伟大的国家都陷入了血腥的战争之中，欧洲所有的帝国都垮台了，殖民地人民大部分获得解放，并开始向母国大规模移民，欧洲分裂成以美国为首的西方和以莫斯科为首的苏联集团。
For centuries up to and including the 20th, Europe seemed the central pivot of world history. Then came the Great Civil War of the West, our Thirty Years’ War (1914-1945), where all of the great European powers—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia—along with almost all of the rest, fought some of history’s greatest battles.
Result: Europe’s greatest nations were all bloodied. All of Europe’s empires fell. The colonial peoples were all largely liberated and began the great migration to the mother countries. And Europe was split between a U.S.-led West and a Moscow-dominated Soviet bloc.
在包括20世纪在内的几个世纪里，欧洲一直是世界历史的中心，然后，西方的大内战来了，我们的三十年战争(1914-1945) ，所有的欧洲大国——英国、法国、德国、意大利、俄罗斯，连同几乎所有其它国家，经历了一些人类历史上最大的战事。
结果：欧洲最伟大的国家都陷入了血腥的战争之中，欧洲所有的帝国都垮台了，殖民地人民大部分获得解放，并开始向母国大规模移民，欧洲分裂成以美国为首的西方和以莫斯科为首的苏联集团。
Yet, even during that four-decade Cold War, Europe was viewed as the prize in the struggle. By the time that Cold War ended in triumph for the Free World, a European unx modeled on the American unx was rising, and almost all of Europe’s newly freed nations began to join the NATO alliance.
Yet one senses today that Europe’s role in world history is passing, that the American pivot to China and the Indo-Pacific is both historic and permanent, and that as the past belongs to Europe, the future belongs to Asia.
即使在长达四十年的冷战时期，欧洲仍被视为这场斗争的战利品，当冷战以自由世界的胜利而结束时，一个以美国联盟为蓝本的欧洲联盟崛起，几乎所有新获得自由的欧洲国家开始加入北约联盟。
然而，如今人们感觉到，欧洲在世界历史上的角色正在消失，美国转向中国和印度洋-太平洋地区的战略既具有历史意义，也是永久性的，过去属于欧洲，而未来属于亚洲。
Yet one senses today that Europe’s role in world history is passing, that the American pivot to China and the Indo-Pacific is both historic and permanent, and that as the past belongs to Europe, the future belongs to Asia.
即使在长达四十年的冷战时期，欧洲仍被视为这场斗争的战利品，当冷战以自由世界的胜利而结束时，一个以美国联盟为蓝本的欧洲联盟崛起，几乎所有新获得自由的欧洲国家开始加入北约联盟。
然而，如今人们感觉到，欧洲在世界历史上的角色正在消失，美国转向中国和印度洋-太平洋地区的战略既具有历史意义，也是永久性的，过去属于欧洲，而未来属于亚洲。
Asia, after all, is home to the world’s most populous nations, China and India; to six of the world’s nine nuclear powers; and to almost all of its major Muslim nations: Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey and Iran, as well as to the world’s largest economies outside the USA: China and Japan.
And Europe?
毕竟，亚洲拥有世界上人口最多的国家——中国和印度，拥有世界上9个核大国中的6个，以及几乎所有主要的穆斯林国家： 印度尼西亚、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、土耳其和伊朗，以及除美国以外的世界最大经济体： 中国和日本。
那欧洲呢？
And Europe?
毕竟，亚洲拥有世界上人口最多的国家——中国和印度，拥有世界上9个核大国中的6个，以及几乎所有主要的穆斯林国家： 印度尼西亚、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、土耳其和伊朗，以及除美国以外的世界最大经济体： 中国和日本。
那欧洲呢？
In 2016, Great Britain voted to withdraw from the E.U. This summer, the British joined the Australians and the U.S. in an AUKUS pact that trashed a cherished French deal to build a dozen diesel-powered submarines—and to replace them with British- and U.S.-built nuclear-power subs. Paris saw this as a “betrayal,” a “stab in the back” by allies whom Gen. Charles De Gaulle had disparaged as “les Anglo-Saxons.” Yet AUKUS was also an undeniably clear statement as to where the Australians saw their future, and it was not alongside France, but the USA.
2016年，英国投票退出欧盟，今年夏天，英国加入了澳大利亚和美国的行列，签署了一项 AUKUS 协定，否决了一项备受重视的法国协议（该协议旨在建造12艘柴油动力潜艇），并用英国和美国建造的核动力潜艇取而代之，巴黎方面认为这是一种“背叛”，一种盟友的“背刺”，夏尔 · 戴高乐将军曾贬损这些盟友为“盎撒人”，然而，AUKUS 也是一个不可否认的清晰声明，表明澳大利亚人自何处来看他们的未来，不在法国，而在美国。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
2016年，英国投票退出欧盟，今年夏天，英国加入了澳大利亚和美国的行列，签署了一项 AUKUS 协定，否决了一项备受重视的法国协议（该协议旨在建造12艘柴油动力潜艇），并用英国和美国建造的核动力潜艇取而代之，巴黎方面认为这是一种“背叛”，一种盟友的“背刺”，夏尔 · 戴高乐将军曾贬损这些盟友为“盎撒人”，然而，AUKUS 也是一个不可否认的清晰声明，表明澳大利亚人自何处来看他们的未来，不在法国，而在美国。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Still, this was the worst U.S. affront of our French ally since President Dwight Eisenhower ordered the British and French out of Suez. But, at least then, Ike could say in 1956 that he had not been alxed to the British-French invasion of Egypt and that our NATO partners had acted without his knowledge or consent.
尽管如此，这仍然是自艾森豪威尔总统命令英国和法国离开苏伊士以来对我们的法国盟友最严重的侮辱，但是，至少在那时艾森豪威尔可以说，1956年他没有收到英法入侵埃及的警报，我们的北约伙伴在他不知情或未经他同意的情况下采取了行动。
尽管如此，这仍然是自艾森豪威尔总统命令英国和法国离开苏伊士以来对我们的法国盟友最严重的侮辱，但是，至少在那时艾森豪威尔可以说，1956年他没有收到英法入侵埃及的警报，我们的北约伙伴在他不知情或未经他同意的情况下采取了行动。
To protest the treatment of France in the submarine deal, President Emmanuel Macron recalled his ambassador to the U.S., something that had never been done since France recognized the American colonies and came to their aid during our War of Independence.Indeed, the submarine agreement forced cancellation of a grand party at the French embassy in Washington, D.C., to celebrate the 240th anniversary of the Battle of the Capes.
This was the critical British-French naval battle at the mouth of the Chesapeake in 1781, where a French fleet prevailed, enabling it to provide Gen. George Washington’s army cover as it surrounded, shelled and compelled the surrender of Gen. Lord Cornwallis’ army at Yorktown.
为了抗议法国在潜艇交易中受到的待遇，埃马纽埃尔 · 马克龙总统召回了他的驻美大使，这是自从法国承认殖民地美国的地位并在我们的独立战争期间向美国提供援助以来从未有过的事。
事实上，这项潜艇协议迫使法国驻华盛顿大使馆取消了一场庆祝“切萨皮克湾战役”240周年的盛大派对。
这是1781年发生在切萨皮克河口的一场关键性的英法海战，当时法国舰队占了上风，使其能够为乔治 · 华盛顿将军的军队提供掩护，包围、炮击并迫使康沃利斯将军的军队在约克敦投降。
This was the critical British-French naval battle at the mouth of the Chesapeake in 1781, where a French fleet prevailed, enabling it to provide Gen. George Washington’s army cover as it surrounded, shelled and compelled the surrender of Gen. Lord Cornwallis’ army at Yorktown.
为了抗议法国在潜艇交易中受到的待遇，埃马纽埃尔 · 马克龙总统召回了他的驻美大使，这是自从法国承认殖民地美国的地位并在我们的独立战争期间向美国提供援助以来从未有过的事。
事实上，这项潜艇协议迫使法国驻华盛顿大使馆取消了一场庆祝“切萨皮克湾战役”240周年的盛大派对。
这是1781年发生在切萨皮克河口的一场关键性的英法海战，当时法国舰队占了上风，使其能够为乔治 · 华盛顿将军的军队提供掩护，包围、炮击并迫使康沃利斯将军的军队在约克敦投降。
But if the British are out of the E.U., and the French are estranged from their NATO allies, Germany yesterday held an election, where, for the first time in its history, the Christian Democratic unx of Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel was reduced to a fourth of the national vote.
The new leader of Germany, after months of negotiations, may be the leader of the Social Democrats, in concert with the Greens. But even that government may not be cobbled together by Christmas. Neither of the prospective chancellors for the Christian Democratic unx or the Social Democratic Party has the stature of Merkel, who has been both leader of Germany for the last decade and a half but also de facto leader of Europe.
英国退出欧盟，法国与其北约盟友疏远，德国昨天举行了选举，康拉德 · 阿登纳，赫尔穆特 · 科尔和安格拉 · 默克尔组成的基督教民主联盟的选票在其历史上第一次被削减到仅有全国选票的四分之一。经过几个月的谈判，德国的新领导人可能会是社会民主党的领导人，并与绿党共同合作，其政府也不一定能在圣诞节前拼凑完成，基督教民主联盟和社会民主党未来的总理都没有默克尔那样的地位，默克尔在过去的15年里一直是德国的领导人，但同时也是欧洲事实上的领导人。
The new leader of Germany, after months of negotiations, may be the leader of the Social Democrats, in concert with the Greens. But even that government may not be cobbled together by Christmas. Neither of the prospective chancellors for the Christian Democratic unx or the Social Democratic Party has the stature of Merkel, who has been both leader of Germany for the last decade and a half but also de facto leader of Europe.
英国退出欧盟，法国与其北约盟友疏远，德国昨天举行了选举，康拉德 · 阿登纳，赫尔穆特 · 科尔和安格拉 · 默克尔组成的基督教民主联盟的选票在其历史上第一次被削减到仅有全国选票的四分之一。经过几个月的谈判，德国的新领导人可能会是社会民主党的领导人，并与绿党共同合作，其政府也不一定能在圣诞节前拼凑完成，基督教民主联盟和社会民主党未来的总理都没有默克尔那样的地位，默克尔在过去的15年里一直是德国的领导人，但同时也是欧洲事实上的领导人。
And consider the present condition of NATO, once celebrated as the most successful alliance in history for having deterred any Soviet invasion of NATO Europe for the entire Cold War.
In 2001, invoking Article V about an attack on one being an attack on all, NATO joined the Americans in their plunge into Afghanistan to deal with the perpetrators of 9/11. This August, 20 years later, all our NATO allies pulled out as the Afghan army crumbled and vanished and the Afghan regime collapsed. Our NATO allies thus shared in the ignominy of the American retreat and defeat.
再想想北约的现状，北约曾因在整个冷战期间阻止了苏联对北约欧洲的入侵而被誉为历史上最成功的联盟。
2001年，北约援引第五条，称对一国的攻击是对所有国家的攻击，与美国一起投入阿富汗战场，共同对付911事件的肇事者，20年后的今天，今年的8月份，随着阿富汗军队的溃败和阿富汗政权的垮台，我们所有的北约盟国都撤出了阿富汗，我们的北约盟国也因此“分享”了美国撤退和失败的耻辱。
In 2001, invoking Article V about an attack on one being an attack on all, NATO joined the Americans in their plunge into Afghanistan to deal with the perpetrators of 9/11. This August, 20 years later, all our NATO allies pulled out as the Afghan army crumbled and vanished and the Afghan regime collapsed. Our NATO allies thus shared in the ignominy of the American retreat and defeat.
再想想北约的现状，北约曾因在整个冷战期间阻止了苏联对北约欧洲的入侵而被誉为历史上最成功的联盟。
2001年，北约援引第五条，称对一国的攻击是对所有国家的攻击，与美国一起投入阿富汗战场，共同对付911事件的肇事者，20年后的今天，今年的8月份，随着阿富汗军队的溃败和阿富汗政权的垮台，我们所有的北约盟国都撤出了阿富汗，我们的北约盟国也因此“分享”了美国撤退和失败的耻辱。
Not only is the center of political gravity shifting from Europe to Asia, European unity seems a thing of the past.
As Britain has left the E.U., Scotland is considering secession from England. Catalonia is still thinking of secession from Spain. Sardinia is considering secession from Italy. Poland and Hungary are at odds with the E.U. over domestic political reforms said to be in conflict with the demands of the bureaucrats in Brussels.
As for the southern-tier E.U. and NATO nations, Spain, Italy and Greece, their main concern is less an invasion by Russia than the ongoing invasion from across the Mediterranean from Africa and the Middle East.
不仅仅是政治重心从欧洲转移到了亚洲，欧洲的团结也似乎成为了过去。
随着英国脱离欧盟，苏格兰正在考虑脱离英格兰，加泰罗尼亚仍在考虑脱离西班牙，撒丁岛正在考虑脱离意大利，波兰和匈牙利与欧盟在国内政治改革上存在分歧，据说这与布鲁塞尔的官僚们的要求相冲突。
至于欧盟和北约的南部国家，西班牙、意大利和希腊，他们主要关心的与其说是俄罗斯的入侵，不如说是来自非洲和中东穿越地中海的持续入侵。
As Britain has left the E.U., Scotland is considering secession from England. Catalonia is still thinking of secession from Spain. Sardinia is considering secession from Italy. Poland and Hungary are at odds with the E.U. over domestic political reforms said to be in conflict with the demands of the bureaucrats in Brussels.
As for the southern-tier E.U. and NATO nations, Spain, Italy and Greece, their main concern is less an invasion by Russia than the ongoing invasion from across the Mediterranean from Africa and the Middle East.
不仅仅是政治重心从欧洲转移到了亚洲，欧洲的团结也似乎成为了过去。
随着英国脱离欧盟，苏格兰正在考虑脱离英格兰，加泰罗尼亚仍在考虑脱离西班牙，撒丁岛正在考虑脱离意大利，波兰和匈牙利与欧盟在国内政治改革上存在分歧，据说这与布鲁塞尔的官僚们的要求相冲突。
至于欧盟和北约的南部国家，西班牙、意大利和希腊，他们主要关心的与其说是俄罗斯的入侵，不如说是来自非洲和中东穿越地中海的持续入侵。
Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever and a founding editor of The American Conservative.
帕特里克 · J · 布坎南是《尼克松的白宫战争: 一场造就和毁掉一位总统并使美国永远分裂的战争》一书的作者，也是《美国保守派》的创始编辑。
帕特里克 · J · 布坎南是《尼克松的白宫战争: 一场造就和毁掉一位总统并使美国永远分裂的战争》一书的作者，也是《美国保守派》的创始编辑。
评论翻译
Elvis
Europe had its moment in the sun, but it's time has passed. Due to a combination of factors, both internal and external, Europe rose to global primacy over a period of approximately two centuries (16th and 17th centuries) and maintained their global primacy for approximately a century and a half, After which the decline and fall of their global dominance occurred rapidly within several decades, because of the epic global wars.
Thing is Europe's domination was quite frankly a historical anomaly. In 6500 years of recorded human history, man has lived for nearly all that time in a mult-polar world. In Mesopotamia it was a world of city-states and regional empires (e.g, two or three rival empires in Mesopotamia). Later when rival or contemporary civilizations emerged elsewhere, and empires rose to dominate or unite those civilizations, there were always other civilizations that were independent of said empires and there were often another empire (sometimes two other empires) of more or less equal power.
In fact for most of China's recorded 3500 year history (not counting the semi-legendary Xia dynastic period), not only has their civilization been one of the world's leading civilizations but at different periods of human history it was the greatest on Earth. Likewise from the start of China's recorded history, China has been ruled by empires for the great majority of its existence, most of which ranked among the great powers of their time and several which were for a time the superpowers of their time. When it came to science (or pre-modern science), technology, and engineering they were likewise leaders for most of their history, rivals of the Greeks and Roman's (with the former ahead in some fields, and China ahead in others), or they had no equal (both the Dark Ages and the Middle Ages).
Therefore what we are witnessing is a return to the more or less historical norm. As in a multi-polar world, that has multiple economic, military, cultural, and geopolitical centers of power, and except for the United States, none are part of Western civilization and none are in Europe (not including the Eurasian state of Russia). Likewise what is arguably the world's oldest contiguous civilization (the Chinese civilization - 3500 years), and perhaps the oldest contiguous polity (the state of China - 2,200 years) has been rising for decades and continues to rise, steadily regaining its historical place in both the Far East and Central Asia. While nothing is guaranteed, the odds are extremely good that not only will China end up dominating the Far East (and maybe Central Asia), but in a multi-polar world it may end up becoming the leading center or at least in 2nd position after the United States (if the latter continues to be a power).
欧洲曾经有过辉煌的时刻，但它的时代已经过去了。
由于内部和外部因素的综合作用，欧洲在大约两个世纪 (16世纪和17世纪) 的时间里崛起为全球第一，并在大约一个半世纪里保持其全球首要地位，之后由于史诗般的全球战争，其全球主导地位在几十年内迅速衰落。
实际上，欧洲的统治地位完全是历史上的反常现象。
在有记载的6500年人类历史中，人类几乎一直生活在多极世界之中，美索不达米亚时代就是一个城邦和地区性帝国的世界(例如，有两三个与美索不达米亚相抗衡的帝国)，后来，当敌对或同代文明在其他地方出现，即使帝国崛起以统治或统一这些文明时，总会有其他文明独立于所述帝国，而且往往还有另一个或多或少势均力敌的帝国 (有时是另外两个帝国)。
事实上，在中国有记载的3500年历史中 (不包括半传说性的夏朝时期) ，中国不仅是世界上最主要的文明之一，而且在人类历史的各个不同时期都是世界上最伟大的文明。
同样，从中国有记载的历史开始，中国大部分时间都是由帝国统治的，其中大部分都是当时的强国，有几个曾经是当时的超级大国。谈及科学 (或前现代科学)、技术和工程，他们在大部分历史时期同样都是领导者，是希腊人和罗马人的竞争对手 ( 前者在某些领域领先，而中国在其他领域领先) ，或者他们没有对手 ( 黑暗时代和中世纪)。
因此，我们正在目睹的是一种或多或少回归到历史常态的现象。
正如在一个多极化的世界中，会有多个经济、军事、文化和地缘政治权力中心，当下的几极除了美国，没有一个是西方文明的一部分，也没有一个位于欧洲 (不包括欧亚国家俄罗斯)，中国可以说是世界上最古老的不间断文明 ( 中华文明，3500年历史) ，也可能是最古老的不间断政体 (中国，2200年历史)，中国已经崛起了几十年，并继续崛起，稳步重新获得其在远东和中亚的历史地位。
虽然没有什么是确定无疑的，但中国不仅最终会主宰远东(或许还有中亚) ，而且在一个多极世界里，它最终可能会成为领先的主导中心，或者至少也是排在美国之后的第二位 (如果美国继续成为一个大国的话) ，这种可能性是非常大的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Europe had its moment in the sun, but it's time has passed. Due to a combination of factors, both internal and external, Europe rose to global primacy over a period of approximately two centuries (16th and 17th centuries) and maintained their global primacy for approximately a century and a half, After which the decline and fall of their global dominance occurred rapidly within several decades, because of the epic global wars.
Thing is Europe's domination was quite frankly a historical anomaly. In 6500 years of recorded human history, man has lived for nearly all that time in a mult-polar world. In Mesopotamia it was a world of city-states and regional empires (e.g, two or three rival empires in Mesopotamia). Later when rival or contemporary civilizations emerged elsewhere, and empires rose to dominate or unite those civilizations, there were always other civilizations that were independent of said empires and there were often another empire (sometimes two other empires) of more or less equal power.
In fact for most of China's recorded 3500 year history (not counting the semi-legendary Xia dynastic period), not only has their civilization been one of the world's leading civilizations but at different periods of human history it was the greatest on Earth. Likewise from the start of China's recorded history, China has been ruled by empires for the great majority of its existence, most of which ranked among the great powers of their time and several which were for a time the superpowers of their time. When it came to science (or pre-modern science), technology, and engineering they were likewise leaders for most of their history, rivals of the Greeks and Roman's (with the former ahead in some fields, and China ahead in others), or they had no equal (both the Dark Ages and the Middle Ages).
Therefore what we are witnessing is a return to the more or less historical norm. As in a multi-polar world, that has multiple economic, military, cultural, and geopolitical centers of power, and except for the United States, none are part of Western civilization and none are in Europe (not including the Eurasian state of Russia). Likewise what is arguably the world's oldest contiguous civilization (the Chinese civilization - 3500 years), and perhaps the oldest contiguous polity (the state of China - 2,200 years) has been rising for decades and continues to rise, steadily regaining its historical place in both the Far East and Central Asia. While nothing is guaranteed, the odds are extremely good that not only will China end up dominating the Far East (and maybe Central Asia), but in a multi-polar world it may end up becoming the leading center or at least in 2nd position after the United States (if the latter continues to be a power).
欧洲曾经有过辉煌的时刻，但它的时代已经过去了。
由于内部和外部因素的综合作用，欧洲在大约两个世纪 (16世纪和17世纪) 的时间里崛起为全球第一，并在大约一个半世纪里保持其全球首要地位，之后由于史诗般的全球战争，其全球主导地位在几十年内迅速衰落。
实际上，欧洲的统治地位完全是历史上的反常现象。
在有记载的6500年人类历史中，人类几乎一直生活在多极世界之中，美索不达米亚时代就是一个城邦和地区性帝国的世界(例如，有两三个与美索不达米亚相抗衡的帝国)，后来，当敌对或同代文明在其他地方出现，即使帝国崛起以统治或统一这些文明时，总会有其他文明独立于所述帝国，而且往往还有另一个或多或少势均力敌的帝国 (有时是另外两个帝国)。
事实上，在中国有记载的3500年历史中 (不包括半传说性的夏朝时期) ，中国不仅是世界上最主要的文明之一，而且在人类历史的各个不同时期都是世界上最伟大的文明。
同样，从中国有记载的历史开始，中国大部分时间都是由帝国统治的，其中大部分都是当时的强国，有几个曾经是当时的超级大国。谈及科学 (或前现代科学)、技术和工程，他们在大部分历史时期同样都是领导者，是希腊人和罗马人的竞争对手 ( 前者在某些领域领先，而中国在其他领域领先) ，或者他们没有对手 ( 黑暗时代和中世纪)。
因此，我们正在目睹的是一种或多或少回归到历史常态的现象。
正如在一个多极化的世界中，会有多个经济、军事、文化和地缘政治权力中心，当下的几极除了美国，没有一个是西方文明的一部分，也没有一个位于欧洲 (不包括欧亚国家俄罗斯)，中国可以说是世界上最古老的不间断文明 ( 中华文明，3500年历史) ，也可能是最古老的不间断政体 (中国，2200年历史)，中国已经崛起了几十年，并继续崛起，稳步重新获得其在远东和中亚的历史地位。
虽然没有什么是确定无疑的，但中国不仅最终会主宰远东(或许还有中亚) ，而且在一个多极世界里，它最终可能会成为领先的主导中心，或者至少也是排在美国之后的第二位 (如果美国继续成为一个大国的话) ，这种可能性是非常大的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Brockland A.T.
European oligarchs are too wiley to go down easy.
They'll fight to stay on top to the last American like every other 'ally'.
欧洲的寡头们太狡猾了，不会轻易倒下。
他们会像其他 "盟友 "一样，为了保持顶端（领先）地位而战斗到最后一个美国人。
European oligarchs are too wiley to go down easy.
They'll fight to stay on top to the last American like every other 'ally'.
欧洲的寡头们太狡猾了，不会轻易倒下。
他们会像其他 "盟友 "一样，为了保持顶端（领先）地位而战斗到最后一个美国人。
Alan Brooks
Top?? They haven’t been on top since when 1939
顶端（领先）地位？？他们从1939年开始就没有登顶过。
Top?? They haven’t been on top since when 1939
顶端（领先）地位？？他们从1939年开始就没有登顶过。
Brockland A.T.
America and even elements of the MIC wanted out of Afghanistan for years, fearing the rise of real threats like Russia and China. Who whined the hardest and loudest against? NATO and the globalist warmongers.
Sure, NATO wants America to confront Russia and China - alone.
There is no Globalism, only Europe First imperialism. Globalism is just a nice inclusive world.
由于担心俄罗斯和中国的崛起，美国甚至包括一些军界、工业界集团成员多年来一直希望撤出阿富汗，谁抱怨得最厉害？，谁的声音最大 ? 北约和全球主义战争贩子。
显然，北约希望美国单独对抗俄罗斯和中国。
根本没有什么所谓的“全球主义”，唯有“欧洲第一帝国主义”，全球主义就是想象中的美好“包容”世界。
America and even elements of the MIC wanted out of Afghanistan for years, fearing the rise of real threats like Russia and China. Who whined the hardest and loudest against? NATO and the globalist warmongers.
Sure, NATO wants America to confront Russia and China - alone.
There is no Globalism, only Europe First imperialism. Globalism is just a nice inclusive world.
由于担心俄罗斯和中国的崛起，美国甚至包括一些军界、工业界集团成员多年来一直希望撤出阿富汗，谁抱怨得最厉害？，谁的声音最大 ? 北约和全球主义战争贩子。
显然，北约希望美国单独对抗俄罗斯和中国。
根本没有什么所谓的“全球主义”，唯有“欧洲第一帝国主义”，全球主义就是想象中的美好“包容”世界。
Scott McLoughlin
We can view these as post-imperial global mean reversions, like stretched rubber bands snapping back into place.
"Not only is the center of political gravity shifting from Europe to Asia, European unity seems a thing of the past."
European unity was a thing of the very recent past and American occupation. What they do next is an interesting question. I think we should view Europe as an amalgamation of Western maritime components and Eastern inland components and stop referring to Europe as an organic unity.
Asia's political gravity is based on farm and factory economic output and thus trade relations. Silk Roads? Spice Roads? Where does Fine China come from? China! This should all sound very familiar. Now add Asian electronic gadgets and trinkets. Indonesia and India will find their niches and start to catch up. East Africa should thrive over the next 100 years. Imperial Africans were made poor, but they inhabit the great wealth of Africa.
Decolonization leaves post-imperial warring European and American conquistadors with very little to do. We must rapidly reconfigure, right size, defund and dismantle our vast but useless and parasitic "globalization" apparatus. Those frequent flying, hotel hopping liars will bleed us dry to buy properties and businesses in Asia, if we let them. We must focus like lasers on rebuilding North America's own farm and factory productive powers and associated assets. Globalization has failed. Imperialism failed. Frontiers are closed. We are not running the world's 3rd most populous nation like an offshore bank. That will only result in constant political chaos and civil wars.
我们可以把这些看作是后帝国时代的全球性逆转，就像拉伸后的橡皮筋迅速恢复到原来的位置。
“不仅仅是政治重心正从欧洲转移到亚洲，欧洲的统一似乎也已成为过去。”
欧洲的统一是最近的事情，其本质为美国的占领。
他们接下来做什么是一个有趣的问题，我认为我们应该把欧洲看作是西方海洋组成部分和东方内陆组成部分的混合体，而不是把欧洲看作是一个有机的统一体。
曾经亚洲的政治重心是建立在农业和工厂经济产出基础上的，因此是贸易关系，丝绸之路？香料之路？精美的瓷器从何而来？中国！这一切听起来是不是很熟悉。
现在又加上亚洲的电子产品和小饰品，印度尼西亚和印度将找到自己的利基市场，并开始迎头赶上，东非应该会在未来100年内蓬勃发展，帝国时代的非洲人被弄得很贫穷，但他们居住在非洲的富饶之地。
去殖民化使得帝国时代的欧洲和美国的征服者们可做的很少。我们必须迅速重新配置，调整规模，减少资金，拆除我们庞大但无用的寄生性“全球化”机构。
如果我们允许他们这样做，那些经常飞来飞去、频繁光顾酒店的骗子们会榨干我们的血汗，在亚洲购买房产和建立生意，我们必须像激光一样，集中精力，专注于重建北美自己的农场和工厂、生产力和相关设施。
全球化已经失败。
帝国主义已经失败。
边疆已经封闭。
我们不能像经营离岸银行一样经营这个世界上人口第三多的国家（注：即美国），那只会导致不断的政治混乱和内战。
We can view these as post-imperial global mean reversions, like stretched rubber bands snapping back into place.
"Not only is the center of political gravity shifting from Europe to Asia, European unity seems a thing of the past."
European unity was a thing of the very recent past and American occupation. What they do next is an interesting question. I think we should view Europe as an amalgamation of Western maritime components and Eastern inland components and stop referring to Europe as an organic unity.
Asia's political gravity is based on farm and factory economic output and thus trade relations. Silk Roads? Spice Roads? Where does Fine China come from? China! This should all sound very familiar. Now add Asian electronic gadgets and trinkets. Indonesia and India will find their niches and start to catch up. East Africa should thrive over the next 100 years. Imperial Africans were made poor, but they inhabit the great wealth of Africa.
Decolonization leaves post-imperial warring European and American conquistadors with very little to do. We must rapidly reconfigure, right size, defund and dismantle our vast but useless and parasitic "globalization" apparatus. Those frequent flying, hotel hopping liars will bleed us dry to buy properties and businesses in Asia, if we let them. We must focus like lasers on rebuilding North America's own farm and factory productive powers and associated assets. Globalization has failed. Imperialism failed. Frontiers are closed. We are not running the world's 3rd most populous nation like an offshore bank. That will only result in constant political chaos and civil wars.
我们可以把这些看作是后帝国时代的全球性逆转，就像拉伸后的橡皮筋迅速恢复到原来的位置。
“不仅仅是政治重心正从欧洲转移到亚洲，欧洲的统一似乎也已成为过去。”
欧洲的统一是最近的事情，其本质为美国的占领。
他们接下来做什么是一个有趣的问题，我认为我们应该把欧洲看作是西方海洋组成部分和东方内陆组成部分的混合体，而不是把欧洲看作是一个有机的统一体。
曾经亚洲的政治重心是建立在农业和工厂经济产出基础上的，因此是贸易关系，丝绸之路？香料之路？精美的瓷器从何而来？中国！这一切听起来是不是很熟悉。
现在又加上亚洲的电子产品和小饰品，印度尼西亚和印度将找到自己的利基市场，并开始迎头赶上，东非应该会在未来100年内蓬勃发展，帝国时代的非洲人被弄得很贫穷，但他们居住在非洲的富饶之地。
去殖民化使得帝国时代的欧洲和美国的征服者们可做的很少。我们必须迅速重新配置，调整规模，减少资金，拆除我们庞大但无用的寄生性“全球化”机构。
如果我们允许他们这样做，那些经常飞来飞去、频繁光顾酒店的骗子们会榨干我们的血汗，在亚洲购买房产和建立生意，我们必须像激光一样，集中精力，专注于重建北美自己的农场和工厂、生产力和相关设施。
全球化已经失败。
帝国主义已经失败。
边疆已经封闭。
我们不能像经营离岸银行一样经营这个世界上人口第三多的国家（注：即美国），那只会导致不断的政治混乱和内战。
massappeal
"For centuries up to and including the 20th, Europe seemed the central pivot of world history."
If we define centuries as the 20th, 19th, and possibly the 18th. If we look at the previous 200 - 1,000 centuries then to the extent there was a "central pivot" of world history, it was Asia. (Before that it was Africa.)
“在包括20世纪在内的几个世纪里，欧洲一直是世界历史的中心，”
—— 如果我们定义一下这个范围，可能是20世纪，19世纪，也可能还包括18世纪，但如果我们回顾一下之前的200到1000年，世界历史的“中心”，是亚洲。(在那之前是非洲)
"For centuries up to and including the 20th, Europe seemed the central pivot of world history."
If we define centuries as the 20th, 19th, and possibly the 18th. If we look at the previous 200 - 1,000 centuries then to the extent there was a "central pivot" of world history, it was Asia. (Before that it was Africa.)
“在包括20世纪在内的几个世纪里，欧洲一直是世界历史的中心，”
—— 如果我们定义一下这个范围，可能是20世纪，19世纪，也可能还包括18世纪，但如果我们回顾一下之前的200到1000年，世界历史的“中心”，是亚洲。(在那之前是非洲)
YT14
Europe lunged ahead in the 17th century. You can see it starting from the settlements in America, Africa and Asia and the outcome of the battle of Lepantho.
欧洲在17世纪突飞猛进，你可以从美洲、非洲和亚洲的殖民定居点以及勒班陀战役的结果中看到这一点。
Europe lunged ahead in the 17th century. You can see it starting from the settlements in America, Africa and Asia and the outcome of the battle of Lepantho.
欧洲在17世纪突飞猛进，你可以从美洲、非洲和亚洲的殖民定居点以及勒班陀战役的结果中看到这一点。
Kent
Colonization lead directly to European primacy for a couple of centuries. Great Britain needed to build ships, cuts down its forests, people have to use coal to heat their homes instead of wood, a way has to be found to get water out of the coal mines, the steam engine is invented, the industrial revolution takes off...
几个世纪以来，殖民直接导致了欧洲的首要地位，英国需要建造船只，于是砍伐森林，人们不得不用煤来取暖，而不是用木头取暖，于是不得不找到一种方法把水从煤矿里抽出来，于是发明了蒸汽机，工业革命开始了....
Colonization lead directly to European primacy for a couple of centuries. Great Britain needed to build ships, cuts down its forests, people have to use coal to heat their homes instead of wood, a way has to be found to get water out of the coal mines, the steam engine is invented, the industrial revolution takes off...
几个世纪以来，殖民直接导致了欧洲的首要地位，英国需要建造船只，于是砍伐森林，人们不得不用煤来取暖，而不是用木头取暖，于是不得不找到一种方法把水从煤矿里抽出来，于是发明了蒸汽机，工业革命开始了....
massappeal
Yeah, looking back from our vantage point it's starting then but it hasn't (imho) really taken hold. Asia still dominates global trade and economic production in the 1600s.
是的，从于我们的有利位置回头看，这是开始，但它还没有 (依我之见) 真正占据主导地位，在17世纪，亚洲仍然主导着全球贸易和经济生产。
Yeah, looking back from our vantage point it's starting then but it hasn't (imho) really taken hold. Asia still dominates global trade and economic production in the 1600s.
是的，从于我们的有利位置回头看，这是开始，但它还没有 (依我之见) 真正占据主导地位，在17世纪，亚洲仍然主导着全球贸易和经济生产。
Manualman
You're both right. Europe was a backwater for centuries, but the dynamism started shortly after Lepanto. It just took that dynamism a while to obliterate the civilizational head start Asia and the Dar al Islam had before then.
你们都是对的，几个世纪以来，欧洲一直是一潭死水，但在勒班陀战役之后不久，这种活力就开始了，欧洲花了一段时间，抹去了亚洲和伊斯兰在此之前所拥有的文明领先地位。
You're both right. Europe was a backwater for centuries, but the dynamism started shortly after Lepanto. It just took that dynamism a while to obliterate the civilizational head start Asia and the Dar al Islam had before then.
你们都是对的，几个世纪以来，欧洲一直是一潭死水，但在勒班陀战役之后不久，这种活力就开始了，欧洲花了一段时间，抹去了亚洲和伊斯兰在此之前所拥有的文明领先地位。
Feral Finster
Even before Lepanto, there was the Battle of Diu.
In the early 19th Century, trade with China was causing a worldwide silver shortage, as there was huge demand for Chinese products, but westerns made few things that were competitive on the Chinese market, so trade had to be settled in silver (since China was on a silver standard at the time).
The British expanded the opium trade to China as a way to even up the balance of payments, then fought a series of wars to force the Chinese to accept the dope.
在勒班陀战役之前，就有了迪乌战役。
19世纪初期，由于对中国产品的巨大需求，与中国的贸易造成了全球范围内的白银短缺，但西方国家制造的产品在中国市场上几乎没有竞争力，因此贸易不得不以白银结算 (因为当时中国采用的是白银本位制) 。
英国扩大了对中国的鸦片贸易，以此来平衡国际收支，然后发动了一系列战争迫使中国接受毒品。
Even before Lepanto, there was the Battle of Diu.
In the early 19th Century, trade with China was causing a worldwide silver shortage, as there was huge demand for Chinese products, but westerns made few things that were competitive on the Chinese market, so trade had to be settled in silver (since China was on a silver standard at the time).
The British expanded the opium trade to China as a way to even up the balance of payments, then fought a series of wars to force the Chinese to accept the dope.
在勒班陀战役之前，就有了迪乌战役。
19世纪初期，由于对中国产品的巨大需求，与中国的贸易造成了全球范围内的白银短缺，但西方国家制造的产品在中国市场上几乎没有竞争力，因此贸易不得不以白银结算 (因为当时中国采用的是白银本位制) 。
英国扩大了对中国的鸦片贸易，以此来平衡国际收支，然后发动了一系列战争迫使中国接受毒品。
TheSnark
The EU was founded and designed to make sure that the Europeans could never fight each other again. In that it succeeded...heck, if Germany and France wanted to go to war today, the environmental impact statements alone would take three years to process.Problem is that the structures that make it hard to go to war also make it hard to do anything else in a timely manner.
欧盟的建立和设计就是为了确保欧洲人永远不会再相互争斗，而它成功了……见鬼，如果德国和法国今天要是想开战，光是环境影响报告就得花上三年时间来处理。
问题是，使战争难以进行的建构也使其难以及时采取其他行动。
The EU was founded and designed to make sure that the Europeans could never fight each other again. In that it succeeded...heck, if Germany and France wanted to go to war today, the environmental impact statements alone would take three years to process.Problem is that the structures that make it hard to go to war also make it hard to do anything else in a timely manner.
欧盟的建立和设计就是为了确保欧洲人永远不会再相互争斗，而它成功了……见鬼，如果德国和法国今天要是想开战，光是环境影响报告就得花上三年时间来处理。
问题是，使战争难以进行的建构也使其难以及时采取其他行动。
Sara van O
The colonial peoples were all largely liberated and began the great migration to the mother countries.
Incorrect. Empires are not mother countries, but occupiers.
殖民地人民大部分获得解放，开始向母国大规模移民。
不对，帝国不是母国，而是占领者。
The colonial peoples were all largely liberated and began the great migration to the mother countries.
Incorrect. Empires are not mother countries, but occupiers.
殖民地人民大部分获得解放，开始向母国大规模移民。
不对，帝国不是母国，而是占领者。
Mccormick47
It seems rather odd to describe World War 2 and the Cold War as focused on Europe; as if there were no war in the Pacific , no concern about China and no war in Southeast Asia.
As for the fragmentation of nation states within Europe, it’s rendered possible by the existence of the EU itself.
把第二次世界大战和冷战的焦点集中于欧洲似乎有些奇怪，整得好像太平洋上没有战争，中国没有战争，东南亚也没有战争一样。
至于欧洲内部民族国家的分裂，正是欧盟自身的存在使其成为可能。
It seems rather odd to describe World War 2 and the Cold War as focused on Europe; as if there were no war in the Pacific , no concern about China and no war in Southeast Asia.
As for the fragmentation of nation states within Europe, it’s rendered possible by the existence of the EU itself.
把第二次世界大战和冷战的焦点集中于欧洲似乎有些奇怪，整得好像太平洋上没有战争，中国没有战争，东南亚也没有战争一样。
至于欧洲内部民族国家的分裂，正是欧盟自身的存在使其成为可能。
Romegas
Don't discount Europe (not the EU which is a dead man walking already) that easily - What the Americans always feared was the rise of Eurasia - that's the real reason why the US built bases surrounding Russia - and to intervene at every opportunity with colour revolutions etc and constant demonisation of Russia in the media . It wants to keep Western and central Europe in an antagonistic relationship with Russia for as long as possible because it is obvious that if one had to combine European know how and quality and Russian know-how plus the unparalleled Russian natural resources (just look at the energy situation in Europe right now with the gas prices) - Eurasia would automatically become the eminent economic and military power. Geographically it would also be in the best position one could hope for - just look at the map of the world. Will this ever come to pass? not if the US can help it - and not as long as the US bribes enough European politicians.. but things change and are changing - increasingly many perceive US influence to be diminishing and if this continues I do not discount a rapprochement leading possibly to a common Eurasian security architecture and a common market leading to a loose unx (not a political one like the EU) were Russia is treated as an equal partner. I also believe that the continental Europeans would look favourably (I mean the common people) - most of us don't believe the propaganda that Russia is out there to invade us - if anything historically it's been mostly the other way round. Furthermore, culturally most of us feel closer to them than to the US / Anglo-saxon world. The only problem is that (to the delight of the US and at the cost of Europe) Russia is giving up on the West ever treating it as a genuine partner and is instead, out of necessity is forging an ever deeper collaboration with China... but it is usually a fool's errand to predict the future, no one knows how things will pan out - yes you can predict some things, but reality is full of surprises and unintended consequences.
不要轻视欧洲 ( 欧洲不是欧盟，欧盟已经行将就木) ——美国人一直担心的是欧亚大陆的崛起——这是美国在俄罗斯周围建立基地的真正原因——并利用颜色革命等每一个机会进行干预，利用媒体不断妖魔化俄罗斯。
美国希望西欧和中欧与俄罗斯尽可能长时间的保持敌对关系，因为很明显，如果把欧洲的技术和质量与俄罗斯的技术加上无与伦比的俄罗斯自然资源（看看欧洲现在的能源状况和天然气价格就知道了）结合起来，欧亚大陆将自动成为杰出的经济和军事力量。
从地理上来说，它也处于人们所能期望的最佳位置——看看世界地图就知道了。
这会成为现实吗？
如果美国能够“提供帮助”，就不会出现这种情况——只要美国贿赂足够多的欧洲政客，就不会。
但事情正在发生变化——越来越多的人认为，美国的影响力正在减弱，如果这种情况继续下去，依我的看法，不排除和解可能带来一个共同的欧亚安全架构和共同市场，一个松散的联盟（不是像欧盟那样的政治联盟），俄罗斯被视为一个平等的合作伙伴。
我还认为，欧洲大陆的人(我指的是普通人)会对此持积极态度——我们大多数人都不相信俄罗斯会入侵我们的宣传——如果说历史上有什么不同的话，那就是大多数情况都是相反的。
此外，在文化上，我们大多数人感觉与他们（俄罗斯）的关系比与美国/盎格鲁撒克逊世界的关系更为密切。
唯一的问题是俄罗斯正在放弃把西方当作一个真正的合作伙伴 (让美国高兴，也让欧洲付出了代价) ，而是出于其需要，正在与中国建立更加深入的合作关系......
但是预测未来通常都是件愚蠢的事，没有人能知道事情将如何发展——是，你可以预测一些事情，但现实往往充满惊喜和意外结果。
Don't discount Europe (not the EU which is a dead man walking already) that easily - What the Americans always feared was the rise of Eurasia - that's the real reason why the US built bases surrounding Russia - and to intervene at every opportunity with colour revolutions etc and constant demonisation of Russia in the media . It wants to keep Western and central Europe in an antagonistic relationship with Russia for as long as possible because it is obvious that if one had to combine European know how and quality and Russian know-how plus the unparalleled Russian natural resources (just look at the energy situation in Europe right now with the gas prices) - Eurasia would automatically become the eminent economic and military power. Geographically it would also be in the best position one could hope for - just look at the map of the world. Will this ever come to pass? not if the US can help it - and not as long as the US bribes enough European politicians.. but things change and are changing - increasingly many perceive US influence to be diminishing and if this continues I do not discount a rapprochement leading possibly to a common Eurasian security architecture and a common market leading to a loose unx (not a political one like the EU) were Russia is treated as an equal partner. I also believe that the continental Europeans would look favourably (I mean the common people) - most of us don't believe the propaganda that Russia is out there to invade us - if anything historically it's been mostly the other way round. Furthermore, culturally most of us feel closer to them than to the US / Anglo-saxon world. The only problem is that (to the delight of the US and at the cost of Europe) Russia is giving up on the West ever treating it as a genuine partner and is instead, out of necessity is forging an ever deeper collaboration with China... but it is usually a fool's errand to predict the future, no one knows how things will pan out - yes you can predict some things, but reality is full of surprises and unintended consequences.
不要轻视欧洲 ( 欧洲不是欧盟，欧盟已经行将就木) ——美国人一直担心的是欧亚大陆的崛起——这是美国在俄罗斯周围建立基地的真正原因——并利用颜色革命等每一个机会进行干预，利用媒体不断妖魔化俄罗斯。
美国希望西欧和中欧与俄罗斯尽可能长时间的保持敌对关系，因为很明显，如果把欧洲的技术和质量与俄罗斯的技术加上无与伦比的俄罗斯自然资源（看看欧洲现在的能源状况和天然气价格就知道了）结合起来，欧亚大陆将自动成为杰出的经济和军事力量。
从地理上来说，它也处于人们所能期望的最佳位置——看看世界地图就知道了。
这会成为现实吗？
如果美国能够“提供帮助”，就不会出现这种情况——只要美国贿赂足够多的欧洲政客，就不会。
但事情正在发生变化——越来越多的人认为，美国的影响力正在减弱，如果这种情况继续下去，依我的看法，不排除和解可能带来一个共同的欧亚安全架构和共同市场，一个松散的联盟（不是像欧盟那样的政治联盟），俄罗斯被视为一个平等的合作伙伴。
我还认为，欧洲大陆的人(我指的是普通人)会对此持积极态度——我们大多数人都不相信俄罗斯会入侵我们的宣传——如果说历史上有什么不同的话，那就是大多数情况都是相反的。
此外，在文化上，我们大多数人感觉与他们（俄罗斯）的关系比与美国/盎格鲁撒克逊世界的关系更为密切。
唯一的问题是俄罗斯正在放弃把西方当作一个真正的合作伙伴 (让美国高兴，也让欧洲付出了代价) ，而是出于其需要，正在与中国建立更加深入的合作关系......
但是预测未来通常都是件愚蠢的事，没有人能知道事情将如何发展——是，你可以预测一些事情，但现实往往充满惊喜和意外结果。
很赞 5
收藏