英国目前是世界上新冠感染率最高的国家之一:原因如下
2021-10-23 jiangye111 15743
正文翻译
The UK has one of the highest Covid infection rates in the world right now: Here’s why

英国目前是世界上新冠感染率最高的国家之一:原因如下

-When the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020, the U.K. was hit hard, reporting some of the highest cases numbers and fatalities in Europe.
-The U.K.’s speedy vaccination rollout was widely praised and helped to bring cases under control.
-Now the situation is looking dramatically different, with the country recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day — giving it one of the worst daily infection rates in the world.

——2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球时,英国受到了严重打击,报告的病例和死亡人数在欧洲是最高的。
——英国迅速推出疫苗接种受到广泛赞誉,帮助控制了病例。
——现在的情况看起来截然不同,该国每天记录了近5万例新增病例,使其成为世界上每日感染率最糟糕的国家之一。


(Two fans of Manchester City soccer club stand out for wearing face masks during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Burnley on October 16, 2021.)

(2021年10月16日,曼彻斯特城足球俱乐部的两名球迷在曼彻斯特城对伯恩利的英超联赛中戴上了口罩。)(译注:看外貌好像都是亚裔)
新闻:

When the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020, the U.K. was hit hard, reporting some of the highest cases numbers and fatalities in Europe. A speedy vaccination program managed to turn things around, however, and brought cases under control.

2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球时,英国受到了严重打击,报告的病例和死亡人数在欧洲是最高的。然而,一项快速的疫苗接种计划设法扭转了局面,使病例得到了控制。

Now the situation looks dramatically different. The country is recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day — meaning it has one of the worst daily infection rates in the world.

但现在的情况看起来截然不同。该国每天记录近5万例新增病例,这意味着该国是世界上每日感染率最糟糕的国家之一。

On Monday, 49,156 new cases were recorded, marking the highest number in three months and taking the total number of cases to over 8.4 million in the U.K. The total number of fatalities to 138,629 — one of the highest death tolls in the world.

周一,报告了49156新增病例,这是3个月来的最高数字,使英国的病例总数超过了840万。死亡总人数为138629人,是世界上死亡人数最多的国家之一。

Meanwhile, hospitalizations and deaths have been steadily increasing since the summer when Covid restrictions in England were lifted on July 19. Pubs, restaurants and nightclubs reopened and mask-wearing became (for the most part) voluntary.

与此同时,自7月19日英国取消对新冠肺炎的限制以来,住院和死亡人数一直在稳步增加。酒吧、餐馆和夜总会已经重新开张,(在大多数情况下)戴口罩成了自愿行为。

Thankfully, the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths have been rising at a much slower rate than earlier in the pandemic, largely due to Covid vaccines being highly effective at preventing severe infection, hospitalization and deaths.

值得庆幸的是,住院和死亡人数的增长速度比大流行早期要慢得多,这主要是因为新冠疫苗在预防严重感染、住院和死亡方面非常有效。

Nonetheless, healthcare professionals in the country’s National Health Service are warning of a tough winter ahead.

尽管如此,英国国家医疗体系的医疗专业人士警告称,寒冬即将来临。

What’s going on?

正在发生什么?

Experts say there are a variety of reasons for the U.K.’s steep Covid numbers — ranging from the half-hearted mask adoption (even when masks are required, such as on public transport, the rule is rarely enforced) to large indoor gatherings that have allowed the virus to spread.

专家表示,英国病例数量的急剧上升有多种原因——从不认真戴口罩(即使在公共交通工9具上需要戴口罩,这一规定也很少执行),到导致病毒传播的大型室内集会。

The U.K.‘s hesitation in vaccinating younger teenagers, something that other countries in Europe and the U.S. did much earlier, and the return to schools in September, have also been cited as reasons for the sharp rise in cases, although the boom in infections among 0-18 year olds is now ebbing as infections rise in their parents’ generation, data shows.

英国在为青少年接种疫苗方面犹豫不决(欧洲和美国的其他国家早得多就采取了这一措施),以及英国9月份重返学校,也被认为是病例急剧上升的原因,数据显示, 0-18岁年龄段的感染人数的激增趋势正在消退,尽管他们父母那一代的感染人数正在上升。

Perhaps most ironically, the U.K.’s early vaccination rollout — which began in December 2020 and was one of the first in the world — is also seen as contributing to its high case rate now.

也许最具讽刺意味的是,英国的早期疫苗接种——始于2020年12月,是世界上最早的疫苗接种之一——也被认为导致了现在的高病例率。

That’s because we now know — due to an increasing body of data — that immunity in vaccinated people wanes after about six months. The spread of the much more infectious delta Covid variant in the spring and summer is also seen as a factor that has diminished vaccine efficacy.

这是因为我们现在知道——根据越来越多的数据显示——接种疫苗的人的免疫力在大约六个月后会减弱。传染性更强的新型冠状病毒在春季和夏季的传播也被认为是降低疫苗效力的一个因素。

Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted his assessment of the U.K.’s situation on Saturday, stating: “Why does the UK currently have 6-fold hospital admissions and a 3-fold higher death rate compared with Europe? Among [the] possible explanations, two that stand out are less use of mitigation measures and less vaccination of kids, age 12-17.”

斯克里普斯研究转化研究所的创始人兼主任埃里克·托波尔博士周六在推特上发表了他对英国情况的评估,他说:“为什么英国目前的住院人数是欧洲(大陆)的6倍,死亡率是欧洲(大陆)的3倍?在可能的解释中,有两个突出的原因是缓解措施的应用减少和12-17岁儿童的疫苗接种减少。”

He noted that reliance on the AstraZeneca vaccine (where effectiveness has been found to decline slightly more over time than the Pfizer vaccine) as another possible contributing factor.

他指出,对阿斯利康疫苗的依赖(药效随着时间的推移下降幅度略大于辉瑞疫苗)是另一个可能的因素。

While, “another potential explanation is that the U.K. vaccinated earlier than rest of Europe, and therefore has manifest more waning of protection, especially among older people,” he noted. On a more positive note, Topol noted that “the U.K. has done far better than the U.S. for uncoupling cases from hospitalizations and deaths.”

然而,“另一个可能的解释是,英国比欧洲其他国家更早接种疫苗,因此表现出更多的保护减弱,特别是在老年人中,”他指出。从积极的方面来看,托波尔指出,“英国在区分住院病例和死亡病例方面做得比美国好得多。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In light of what we know about waning immunity, the U.K. (like Israel, the U.S. and other countries in Europe) decided in September to roll out booster shots to the over-50s, medical staff and anyone with underlying health conditions.

根据我们对免疫力下降的了解,英国(像以色列、美国和其他欧洲国家)在9月份决定向50岁以上的人、医务人员和任何有潜在健康问题的人推出加强注射。

Those who received their second dose at least six months ago are being asked to come forward first. Currently around 6.5 million people in England are eligible for a booster, with the NHS so far having administered around 3.6 million booster shots, data shows.

那些至少在六个月前接受第二剂注射的人被要求首先站出来。数据显示,目前英格兰约有650万人有资格接受加强注射,国家医疗体系迄今已经注射了约360万剂加强针。

Experts have called on the government to ramp up vaccinations in unvaccinated groups, mainly in young people, and to roll out boosters faster. They have also warned against complacency this winter or a reliance on a controversial “herd immunity” strategy.

专家们呼吁政府增加未接种疫苗人群(主要是年轻人)的疫苗接种,并更快地推出加强针。他们还警告说,今年冬天不要自满,也不要依赖有争议的“群体免疫”策略。

“The U.K. seems to be slowly waking up to the fact that Covid cases are too high, but the reality is they’ve been soaring for months and many countries have put us on their red list,” Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, which collects and analyses Covid data, noted last week.

“英国似乎正在慢慢意识到病例数量太高的事实,但现实是,它们已经飙升了几个月,许多国家已经把我们列入了红色名单,”伦敦国王学院遗传流行病学教授、ZOE COVID研究应用程序(用于收集和分析COVID数据)的首席科学家蒂姆·斯佩克特上周指出。

“Infections remain high in young people, and look to be spilling over into the 35-55 year olds. If these increases creep into the over 55s it could spell disaster for the NHS this winter,” he noted. “With cases so high, it’s clear that herd immunity isn’t happening, and the risk is most people continue to believe they are safe if they have had Covid or a vaccine ... We need to be doing all we can to get everyone double vaccinated and stop waiting for herd immunity to happen through natural infection.”

“在年轻人中感染率仍然很高,而且似乎会蔓延到35-55岁的人群。如果这些增长蔓延到55岁以上的人群,这可能会给今年冬天的国家医疗体系带来灾难,”他指出。“鉴于病例如此之高,显然没有获得群体免疫,风险是大多数人继续认为,如果他们已经感染过新冠或接种过疫苗,他们就是安全的……我们需要尽我们所能让每个人接种两次疫苗,停止等待通过自然感染产生群体免疫。”

Variant worries

变异病毒的担忧

There are also growing concerns about a descendent of the delta Covid variant that is being identified in an increasing number of U.K. Covid cases, with some suggesting it could be another possible factor in rising case numbers.

人们也越来越担心在英国越来越多的新冠病例中发现的德尔塔变体的后代,一些人认为它可能是病例数量上升的另一个可能因素。

Last Friday, the U.K.’s Health Security Agency issued a report in which it said “a delta sublineage newly designated as AY.4.2 is noted to be expanding in England” and that it was monitoring the subtype.

上周五,英国卫生安全局发布了一份报告,称“一个新被指定为AY.4.2的德尔塔亚型正在英格兰扩张”,该机构正在监测该亚型。

“This sublineage is currently increasing in frequency. It includes spike mutations A222V and Y145H. In the week beginning 27 September 2021 (the last week with complete sequencing data), this sublineage accounted for approximately 6% of all sequences generated, on an increasing trajectory. This estimate may be imprecise ... Further assessment is underway,” it noted.

报告称:“这种从属关系目前越来越频繁。它包括刺突突变A222V和Y145H。在2021年9月27日开始的那一周(有完整测序数据的最新一周),该子序列约占所有序列生成的6%,呈上升趋势。这个估计可能不精确。进一步的评估正在进行中。”

Former U.S. Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb also tweeted about the subtype at the weekend.

美国食品和药物管理局前局长斯科特·戈特利布周末也在推特上提到了这种亚型。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


“U.K. reported its biggest one-day Covid case increase in 3 months just as the new delta variant AY.4 with the S:Y145H mutation in the spike reaches 8% of UK sequenced cases,” Dr. Gottlieb wrote. “We need urgent research to figure out if this delta plus is more transmissible, has partial immune evasion?”

“英国报告了3个月来单日新增病例最多的情况,与此同时,带有S:Y145H突变的新型德尔塔变种AY.4在英国测序病例中达到8%,”戈特利布博士写道。“我们需要紧急研究,弄清楚这种德尔塔plus病毒是否更具传染性,是否存在部分免疫逃避?”
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The delta subtype, known formally as AY.4.2, is reported to be 10-15% more transmissible than the standard delta variant, but it is too early to say for certain whether it has been causing a spike in cases in the U.K.

据报道,正式名称为AY.4.2的德尔塔亚型比标准的德尔塔变体的传染性高10-15%,但现在就确定它是否导致了英国病例的激增还为时过早。

Professor of immunology at Imperial College London, Danny Altmann, told CNBC on Monday that the subtype “needs to be monitored and, so far as possible, carefully controlled.”

伦敦帝国理工学院免疫学教授丹尼·奥尔特曼周一告诉CNBC,这种亚型“需要监测,并尽可能谨慎地加以控制。”

“Because delta has now been the dominant mutant in several regions for some six months and not been displaced by any other variants, the hope has been that delta perhaps represented [the] peak mutation performance achievable by the virus. AY.4 may be starting to raise doubts about this assertion,” he warned.

他说:“由于德尔塔在几个地区已经成为主要的突变体有大约六个月了,而且没有被任何其他变体取代,人们希望德尔塔可能代表了这种病毒可以达到的突变性能峰值。而AY.4可能开始对这一断言提出了质疑,”他警告说。

The U.K. has often been seen as a harbinger of things to come for other countries during the pandemic, give the fact that the alpha variant was first discovered in Britain; it then became a dominant strain of the virus globally.

英国经常被视为疫情期间其他国家即将发生的事情的先兆,因为阿尔法变异最初就是在英国发现的;随后,它成为了该病毒在全球的主要毒株种类。

The same thing subsequently happened with the even more infectious delta variant, which was first found in India but then took hold in the U.K. before spreading around the world.

同样的事情也发生在更具传染性的德尔塔上,德尔塔最初在印度被发现,然后在英国扎了根,然后又传播到了世界各地。

评论翻译
ShinobiS-28
Went to the chippy last night, about twelve people packed in waiting for their food, not one mask being worn other than mine. Got the filthiest look from some woman down the other end too.
Playing down mask usage and pushing shit like 'freedom day' is going to shaft us this winter

昨晚去了一家快餐店,大约有十二个人挤在里面等吃的,除了我,没有一个人戴口罩。另一头的某个女人还狠狠地瞪了我一眼。
淡化口罩的使用和宣扬“自由日”之类的扯淡会让我们在这个冬天被cao的

stedgysonNorthumberland
I've lost the will to wear one when every other cunt isn't bothering. I wear one by default but when I look around and see I'm the only one bothering ill say out loud well if nobody else gives a shit about anyone here why bother. It's terrible and I shouldn't but fuck 'em. Christmas lockdown here we come.

如果所有其他混蛋们都不戴口罩,那我也不愿意戴口罩了。我默认会戴一个,但当我环顾四周,发现我是唯一一个这么干的人,那我就会大声说如果这里的任何人都不在乎,那我干吗还要在乎呢。太可怕了,我不应该这么干,但是ctmd,“圣诞节封锁”即将到来。

11211820155
Lockdown when we have 73% of people vaccinated, hahaha amazing. You lockdown lovers are begging for another one aren't you, bless you.

在我们已经有73%的人接种了疫苗时封锁?哈哈哈,你真NB。你们这些封锁爱好者是在祈求再来一个封锁是吧,祝福你们。

mrminutehand
Vaccination won't stop community spread itself, it protects you from death and severe infection. If you don't want another variant coming out with better defense against the vaccination, you lock down when cases become untenable.
What a lot of people are unwilling to understand is that proper lockdowns prevent future lockdowns, with emphasis on proper. A lockdown that lets people out for what they personally decide is essential travel (read: going around the shopping centre) isn't a lockdown. A lockdown that lets employers call employees in regardless isn't a lockdown, and it's even less of a lockdown if you let the employers decide who are key workers or not.
In China, my city had a full lockdown during the first half of 2020 and one more last month due to a resurgence. That's it. Because it was an actual lockdown which included staying inside your building, diverting delivery workers to delivering supplies to people's buildings, having medical workers collect people in need of treatment or medicine from their home to an appointed treatment facility, putting in financial guarantees for workers forced to stay home, and instead of fines for rule breakers it was quarantine, tests, jail then prosecution.
Ever since that lockdown ended, and ever since the last resurgence lockdown ended, it's been back to mask mandates on public transport and crowded places only. Not because people are unwilling, but because the case rate in the city remains so low that there's virtually no actual risk. It might sound hard to believe, but life here has been almost 100% normal since May 2020, with the exception of last month. Increasing case rates are a shock to the local population because they're so rare.
The UK's lockdowns contained virtually none of the above measures. As a result, the same lockdowns continued throughout the entirety of 2020 and will probably return in the future.
I say this understanding that far, far more blame is on the government than the people in general. There's no financial support if you have to isolate from work, statutory sick pay is so much lower than the national minimum wage that it's not even a joke anymore, no resources whatsoever were put into supply distribution to people under lockdown, and the government has failed to protect almost the entire population of the country while being happy to let the NHS collapse. I don't really blame people in the UK that much for disobeying lockdown rules.

疫苗本身并不能阻止社区传播,它可以保护你免于死亡和严重感染。如果你不希望出现另一种对疫苗有更好防御能力的变种,那么当病例数变得无法控制时,你就得封锁。
很多人不愿意理解的是,正确的封锁可以防止未来的封锁,重点在于“正确”。让人们外出进行他们个人认为是必要的旅行(即:在购物中心周围活动)的 “封锁”不叫封锁。让雇主不顾一切地召唤员工上班的“封锁”不算封锁,如果让雇主决定谁是“关键员工”,就更不算封锁了。
在中国,我所在的城市在2020年上半年实施了全面封锁,上个月又因疫情反弹实施了一次封锁。就是这样。因为这是一次真正的封锁,包括呆在你的大楼里,通过送货工人去给人们的大楼运送物资,由医务人员将需要治疗或药物的人从家中转移到指定的治疗机构,为被迫呆在家里的工人提供经济保障,违反规定的人不是被罚款,而是被隔离,检测,监禁,然后被起诉。
自从那次封锁结束后,以及自从上次疫情反弹的封锁结束后,只在公共交通和拥挤的地方实施了口罩令。不是因为人们不愿意戴口罩,而是因为这个城市的病例率保持极低水平,几乎没有实际的风险。这听起来可能很难相信,但自2020年5月以来,这里的生活几乎就100%正常了,除了上个月的反弹(译注:扬州?)。不断上升的病例率对当地民众来说是一个冲击,因为它们非常罕见。
英国的封锁措施几乎不包括上述任何措施。因此,同样的“封锁”持续了整个2020年,未来可能还会再次出现。
我认为政府的责任比一般人要大得多。如果你不得不与工作隔离,就没有经济支持,法定病假工资比国家最低工资低得多,这甚至不再是一个笑话了,没有任何资源用于向被封锁的人分发物资,政府没能保护几乎整个国家的人口,却乐于让国家医疗体系崩溃。我不太责怪英国人不遵守封锁规定(主要的政府没有做到位)。

alinityfel
British public are complete wimps when it comes to wearing masks. It's both pathetic and embarrassing. What is so hard about wearing a piece of fabric on your face in public?

说到戴口罩,英国公众完全是废物。这既可悲又可耻。在公共场合脸上戴一块布有什么难的?

Wackyal123
Certainly some of it is down to our dealing with mental health. I have a mate who won’t wear a mask because of panic attacks (and says they are pointless). And yet, is really quite adamant that everyone gets jabbed.
In other countries, rules be rules. Regardless. Can’t wear a mask? Don’t go out.

当然,其中一些原因是我们的心理健康问题。我有个朋友因为“无端恐惧症”而不戴口罩(还说戴口罩毫无意义)。然而,他非常坚持每个人都要打疫苗。
在其他国家,规则就是规则。不讲理由。不戴口罩?那就别出去。

willgeld
Because a lot of people just don’t want to. Most people have had 2 jabs and covid at this stage.

因为很多人就是不想戴口罩。大多数人在这个阶段已经打了2针疫苗或者感染过新冠肺炎了。

_Niel_
Infection rate is only of interest to statisticians - skewed by testing rate. Test more find more.
Hospitalisation rate and death rate are where it’s at. Both are increasing but death rate is on a par with Europe.
Either Europe has far more deadly strains, which they don’t, or something is not quite adding up with detected infection rates.

感染率只是统计学家关心的问题——被检测率扭曲了。检测越多,发现的病例就越多。
住院率和死亡率都达到了现在这么高,但死亡率与欧洲相当。
要么是欧洲的致命毒株远比现在多,要么是检测到的感染率还不够高。

Justhandguns
Female colleague has just gone down with the bug last week with her entire family of 5. Probably got it from the kids in schools. Just had a zoom meeting and I have never seen her in such a bad state. Kids are fine with a bit of coughing but her husband has been coughing blood..... Literally. They were both double jabbed with AZ by the way.
This winter is going to be fun...

一位女同事上周和她的五口之家都染上了这种病。可能是学校里的孩子传染的。我刚开了个视频会议,我从没见过她状态这么差。孩子们咳嗽没事,但她丈夫一直在咳血……真地在咳血。
顺便说一下,他们都打过了两针阿斯利康疫苗。
这个冬天会很有趣的……

sjw_7
That sounds horrible I hope they are on the mend. My daughter caught it from school a few weeks ago and was ill for a few days. My wife (double jabbed with Pfizer) and I (double jabbed with AZ) were absolutely fine. Its odd how it seems so indiscriminate in how it affects people.

那听起来太可怕了——我希望他们正在康复。我女儿几周前在学校感染了,病了几天。我的妻子(接种了两针辉瑞)和我(接种了两针阿斯利康)都很好。奇怪的是,它对人的影响似乎是没有区别的。

redcondurango
This article is misleading, as mask wearing in public is still a thing in Scotland. Perhaps that's why the number of new cases per 100k has been dropping steadily here for a month, while going up in Wales, England and N Ireland.

这篇文章具有误导性,因为在苏格兰公众场合戴口罩仍然重要。也许这就是为什么一个月来这里每10万人的新病例数量一直在稳步下降,而威尔士、英格兰和北爱尔兰却在上升。

bobby_zamora
Remember when England got rid of masks and cases went down? Whole at the same time Scotland kept masks and their cases went way up?
People love to oversimplify everything.

还记得英国取消口罩和病例减少的时候吗?与此同时,苏格兰还保留着口罩,而他们的病例却大幅上升?
人们喜欢把一切都简单化。

ruthifer123
I am not saying I want another lockdown, I almost had a nervous breakdown last year and knew multiple people that died and couldn't go to their funerals. That doesn't mean that the way this has been handled has been correct. Failure to put in place vaccine passports, failure of leadership to demonstrate best practice, advertising 'freedom day' as if everything would be fine again and back to normal. In addition to providing first vaccines very quickly but failing on delivering second jabs, messing up supplies, not vaccinating teenagers. These are failings. Failings leading to more deaths. I don't want to be locked down, I wanted to kill myself. But I am furious that our government has been so incompetent.

我不是说我想再一次被封锁,去年我差点精神崩溃,我认识的很多人都死了,我无法参加他们的葬礼。这并不意味着这种处理疫情的方式是正确的。未能实施疫苗护照令,领导层未能展示最佳行动,宣传“自由日”,仿佛一切都会恢复正常。除了迅速提供第一针疫苗,但未能提供第二针,混乱的供应,没有给青少年接种疫苗。这些都是失败。失败导致更多的死亡。我不想被关起来,那段时间我想过自杀。但我对我们的政府如此无能感到愤怒。

SubstantialAgency2
Because if we're not back at work and spending the government can't exploit us for every possible penny they can, i mean they just had to rise national insurance to cover the tax break the banks are about to get. Can't do that if you're bottom line isn't producing.

因为如果我们不回去工作和消费,政府就不能剥削我们的每一分钱了,我的意思是,他们只能提高国民保险费用来填补银行即将获得的税收减免。但如果你的最基层没有产出,你就无法这么干了。

cactusnan
And parliament not wearing masks. My own theory is they tories are trying to minimise the infection rate’s and sadly the news media will join them. The massive rise in infection will be left to the people to deal with regardless of the deaths.

议会也不戴口罩。我个人的看法是,保守党正试图将感染率包装成 “最低”,不幸的是,新闻媒体也会加入他们的行列。不管死亡人数如何,感染人数的大幅增加都将甩给民众自行处理。
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Ill_Ad3719
Large amount of testing. Cold weather. No restrictions at all. People genuinely back to normal and mostly not scared. Vaccine used that possibly may be less efficient against infection (even though it should be almost same efficient against serious illness). It really isn't very surprising, whether you hate the government for it or agree with the government.

大量的检测、寒冷的天气、没有任何限制措施、人们真的恢复了常态、大部分人都不害怕、使用的疫苗可能对感染的有效性较低(尽管它对重症的有效性几乎相同)。不管你是讨厌政府还是赞同政府,出现现在这种结果都不奇怪。

jsbp1111 0
I’m surprised at how many people here want to go back to restrictions/lockdown.
Too much testing and too many false positives. We cannot afford more lockdowns financially and mentally.

我很惊讶这里居然有这么多人想重新回到限制/封锁状态。
有太多的检测和太多的假阳性。我们已经承受不起更多的经济和精神封锁了。

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