英国研究人员警告称:一半的“感冒”其实都是新冠肺炎
2021-12-27 jiangye111 21830
正文翻译
Omicron: Half of colds will be Covid, warn UK researchers

奥密克戎:英国研究人员警告称,一半的“感冒”其实都是新冠肺炎



新闻:

If you have a sore throat, runny nose and a headache there is a good chance it will be Covid, warn UK researchers.

英国研究人员警告称,如果你喉咙痛、流鼻涕和头痛,那你很有可能感染了新冠病毒。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The Zoe Covid study team has been tracking the pandemic using feedback from the general public, and estimates half of people with cold-like symptoms actually have Covid.

Zoe Covid研究团队一直在利用公众的反馈跟踪疫情,并估计有一半的感冒症状患者实际上是感染了新冠肺炎。

They describe an "explosion" of Covid cases over the last week, driven by the new Omicron variant.

他们描述了上周新冠肺炎病例数量的“爆炸”,这是由新的奥密克戎变种导致的。

About 144,000 people a day are catching it and then feeling unwell.

每天约有14.4万人感染并感到不适。

For most, Covid is a mild disease. Some get no symptoms at all.

对大多数人来说,新冠肺炎是一种温和的疾病。有些感染者甚至没有任何症状。

But it can still cause very serious illness in some people, including those who have not been vaccinated.

但它仍然会导致一些人患上非常严重的疾病,包括那些没有接种疫苗的人。

If you have cold-like symptoms, take a Covid test, says lead scientist Prof Tim Spector.

首席科学家蒂姆·斯佩克特教授表示,如果你有类似感冒的症状,请进行新冠检测。

"The number of new symptomatic cases has exploded over the last week," he said.

他说:“上周出现症状的新病例数量激增。”

"For most people, an Omicron positive case will feel much more like the common cold, starting with a sore throat, runny nose and a headache. You only need to ask a friend who has recently tested positive to find this out.

“对大多数人来说,奥密克戎阳性病例的感觉更像是普通感冒,从喉咙痛、流鼻涕和头痛开始。你只需要问问一个最近检测呈阳性的朋友就知道了。

"We need to change public messaging urgently to save lives."

“我们迫切需要改变公共信息,以拯救生命。”

The UK reported 106,122 new Covid cases on Wednesday - exceeding 100,000 on a single day for the first time.

英国周三报告了106122例新增病例,单日(新增)确诊病例首次超过10万例。
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With infections doubling every two to three days, experts say, health officials are concerned about the pressure this could put on the NHS.

专家表示,随着感染人数每两到三天就会翻一番,卫生官员担心这会给国家医疗体系带来压力。

Preliminary studies suggest the Omicron coronavirus variant is milder, with fewer people getting severely ill than with other variants.

初步研究表明,奥密克戎变种较温和,与其他变种相比,患重症的人更少。

But a massive wave of infections would still mean many people needing hospital care, as well as lots of doctors and nurses being off sick with Covid.

但是,一波大规模的感染浪潮仍然意味着许多人需要医院护理,以及许多医生和护士因新冠而请病假。

People are being advised to do rapid Covid tests before meeting up with friends and family at Christmas.

人们被建议在圣诞节与朋友和家人见面之前进行快速新冠检测。

Lateral flow tests help to find cases in people who may have no symptoms but are still infectious, meaning they can give the virus to others.

横向流动检测有助于发现那些可能没有症状但仍具有传染性的人的病例,这意味着他们可以将病毒传染给其他人。

Latest estimates suggest that more than 1.3 million people in the UK would have tested positive for coronavirus in the week ending 16 December. This is the highest level of infections recorded by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) since the survey started.

最新估计表明,在12月16日结束的一周内,英国有130多万人的新冠病毒检测呈阳性。这是英国国家统计局自调查开始以来记录的最高感染水平。

This is 2.1% of the population, or one in 45 people in the latest week in England.

这是2.1%的人口规模,或在最近一周的英格兰,每45人就有一个阳性。

The ONS say the trends for estimated Covid-19 infections increased in England and Scotland, and were uncertain in Wales and Northern Ireland.

英国国家统计局表示,英格兰和苏格兰的估算新冠肺炎感染趋势有所增加,威尔士和北爱尔兰的趋势不确定。

The rates of people estimated to be testing positive for coronavirus across the UK in that seven-day period were:
one in 45 in England
one in 55 in Wales
one in 50 in Northern Ireland
one in 70 in Scotland

在这7天的时间里,全英国估算新冠病毒检测呈阳性的人的比例如下:
英格兰每45人有1个 威尔士每55人有1个 北爱尔兰每50人有1个 苏格兰每70人有1个

评论翻译
Difficult-Buffalo-54
From article:
For most, Covid is a mild disease. Some get no symptoms at all.
But it can still cause very serious illness in some people, including those who have not been vaccinated.
If you have cold-like symptoms, take a Covid test, says lead scientist Prof Tim Spector.
"The number of new symptomatic cases has exploded over the last week," he said.
"For most people, an Omicron positive case will feel much more like the common cold, starting with a sore throat, runny nose and a headache. You only need to ask a friend who has recently tested positive to find this out.
"We need to change public messaging urgently to save lives."
Great news. Hopefully this is the end of the pandemic!

新闻里说:
对大多数人来说,新冠肺炎是一种温和的疾病。有些感染者甚至没有任何症状。
但它仍然会导致一些人患上非常严重的疾病,包括那些没有接种疫苗的人。
首席科学家蒂姆·斯佩克特教授表示,如果你有类似感冒的症状,请进行新冠检测。
他说:“上周出现症状的新病例数量激增。”
“对大多数人来说,奥密克戎阳性病例的感觉更像是普通感冒,从喉咙痛、流鼻涕和头痛开始。你只需要问问一个最近检测呈阳性的朋友就知道了。
“我们迫切需要改变公共信息,以拯救生命。”
——很棒的新闻。希望这是大流行的结束!

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Martej
This is what I’m hoping too. Omicron might end up be a mixed blessing if it gives most of us “COVID-lite” but then brings us closer to herd immunity. It’s just a matter of time before most of us get it now that it is so contagious. We just can’t keep hiding under our beds and armed with a vaccine we should be able to get through this without too many scars. Omicron might just get us there faster without causing a lot of damage.

这也是我希望的。如果奥密克戎给我们大多数人带来了“轻量版新冠肺炎”,但随后又让我们离群体免疫更近了一步,那它可能最终是一件喜忧参半的事情。它的传染性如此之强,使得我们大多数人感染它只是时间问题。我们不能一直躲在床下,用疫苗武装自己,我们应该能熬过这一关而不会留下太多疤痕。奥密克戎也许能让我们更快渡过难关而不会造成太多伤害。

n05h
People seem to catch it multiple times, the antibodies from having had covid previously didn’t stop you from getting omnicron now. How do we get to herd immunity with this in mind? And we’re not even talking about long covid or that it still kills people.

人们似乎会感染多次,以前感染过新冠病毒的抗体并没有阻止你感染奥密克戎。这么一想,我们怎么能在这种情况下产生群体免疫呢?我们甚至还没有谈论新冠长期影响,或者它仍然会导致人们死亡。

2wheeloffroad
That will take a change in mindset and reporting. If it is morphing into the 'common cold' the we need to treat it as such and not close down schools, business, and sports or fire people if they don't do what they are told. I am double vaxed and figured things would be back to normal for me by now.

这需要在心态和报告方面做出改变。如果它正在演变成“普通感冒”,那我们就需要以对待感冒的方式对待它,而不是关闭学校、商业和体育活动,或解雇那些不按要求行事的人。我已经打了两针,以为现在在我看来一切都会恢复正常。

WhichWitchIsWhitch
It's not. It has cold-like symptoms for the vaccinated but will still send something like 2% of the unvaccinated to the hospital based on the hospitalization rate for Canada between November and December and the Imperial College London (20% severity). Not a big deal if it spread as quickly as Delta, but the cases are doubling every two days.
So for 10000 cases 200 new hospitalizations, 2 days later 20000 cases 400 new hospitalizations, 2 days later 40000 cases 800 new hospitalizations, 2 days later 80000 cases 1600 new hospitalizations, etc. all while the average hospital stay is something like 10-14 days

不是这么回事。是接种疫苗的人会出现类似感冒的症状,但根据加拿大11月至12月和伦敦帝国理工学院报告的住院率,仍会有大约2%的未接种疫苗的人被送进医院(重症率20%)。如果它的传播速度和德尔塔一样,那也没什么大不了了,但病例每两天就翻一番。
所以每10000例新增病例就有200个要住院,2天后20000例新增400个住院,2天后40000例新增800个住院,2天后80000例新增1600个住院,等等,而平均住院时间大约是10-14天

FoneTap
Yea and we aren’t including in covid deaths indirect covid deaths like cancelled/postponed surgeries or people with legit non-covid medical needs avoiding hospitals due to covid concerns.
Apparently since covid hit, no one is having heart attacks anymore. (Obviously untrue)
Excess mortality would be a fairer death toll.

是的,我们的数据没有包括因为新冠导致的间接死亡,比如取消/推迟手术,或者有正当的非新冠医疗需求的病人,因为担心感染新冠而不去医院。
很明显,自从新冠肺炎爆发以来,没有人再犯心脏病了。(显然不是真实的)
(算上)额外的死亡率才将是一个更公平的死亡人数。

2wheeloffroad
It has cold-like symptoms for the vaccinated
That is kinda my point though. For people who care, they get vaccinated or had it already, then it is just a cold. We need to start treating it as such and stop acting like it is deadly for everyone. For those who are not vaccinated, they choose to not be vaccinated and also need to accept the consequences, no different than not wearing a seat belt or smoking, other risky decisions. If they don't care enough to get vaccinated then the probably don't care if they get covid and should the accept the consequences. Today, everyone is a spreader. As to hospitals, that is where the problems lies and we should reserve a % of beds for vaccinated and other medical issues so that there is enough and any left over go to unvaccinated people.

“是接种疫苗的人会出现类似感冒的症状”
这是我的观点。对于那些在乎的人来说,他们接种过疫苗或已经感染过,那么这就只是一种“感冒”。我们需要开始这样看待它,不要再认为它对每个人都是致命的。对于那些没有接种疫苗的人来说,他们自己选择不接种疫苗,也需要接受后果,这与不系安全带或吸烟等风险决定没有什么不同。如果他们不在乎接种疫苗,那么他们可能也就不在乎他们是否感染了新冠,就应该接受后果。今天,每个人都是传播者。至于医院,这就是问题所在,我们应该为接种疫苗和其他医疗问题预留一定百分比的床位,这样就有足够的床位了,还能留给未接种疫苗的人一些床位。

SMORKIN_LABBIT
Can someone explain to me why you need to get tested when you have cold symptoms? If you are sick just stay home and follow the suggested quarantine rules. Why are they telling people sick with covid to leave their house, go to a testing facility, and literally just expose more people? I've not heard the logic for this yet at all, unless you just want to pump case numbers for some reason?

谁能给我解释一下为什么你有感冒症状时要做检测?如果你生病了,就呆在家里,并遵循建议的隔离规则。为什么他们要告诉感染了新冠的人离开家,去检测设施,从而让更多人接触到病毒呢?我还没听过其中的逻辑,除非你只是出于某种原因想要增加病例数量?

Yedasi
This is advice for residents of the UK. We have free home testing kits here so he is just recommending you do a home test kit.

这是给英国居民的建议。我们这里有免费的家庭检测工具包,所以他只是建议你做一个家庭检测(不是去医院)。

Instant_noodlesss
As long as they are actually just cold symptoms...

只要它们实际上就是感冒症状就好…

WhichWitchIsWhitch
Cold symptoms for the vaccinated. Problem is that cases are exponential but likelihood of hospitalization doesn't scale down proportionally. That means even if it's 20% as severe, the burden on hospitals exceeds that of Delta very quickly, then outpaces it more and more as time goes on
Bad news is that this means stricter health measures to keep hospitals from exceeding capacity and we can't just rely on wishful thinking to keep the status quo.
Good news is it means we get out the other side of this sooner as everyone will be vaccinated/recovered/dead faster than the slow burn through the unvaccinated those in countries like the UK and Canada were doing.

接种疫苗的人才是感冒症状。问题是,病例呈指数增长,但住院的可能性并没有按比例下降。这意味着,即使它的重症率是20%,医院的负担也会很快超过德尔塔,然后随着时间的推移,会越来越多地超过德尔塔
坏消息是,这意味着要采取更严格的卫生措施,防止医院超负荷运转,我们不能仅仅依靠一厢情愿的想法来维持现状。
好消息是,这意味着我们能更快地走出危机的另一边,因为每个人接种疫苗/恢复/死亡的速度都比英国和加拿大等国家未接种疫苗的人缓慢燃烧的速度更快。(加快了疫情的节奏,能更早结束疫情)

3_Thumbs_Up
Cold symptoms for the vaccinated. Problem is that cases are exponential but likelihood of hospitalization doesn't scale down proportionally. That means even if it's 20% as severe, the burden on hospitals exceeds that of Delta very quickly, then outpaces it more and more as time goes on
Hospitalizations are also shorter with omicron, so that eases the burden quite a bit as well.

“接种疫苗的人才是感冒症状。问题是,病例呈指数增长,但住院的可能性并没有按比例下降。这意味着,即使它的重症率是20%,医院的负担也会很快超过德尔塔,然后随着时间的推移,会越来越多地超过德尔塔”
奥密克戎的住院时间也缩短了,因此也减轻了医院负担。

Idea_list
Lets hope that Omciron will be the last big wave and after that we can return back to normal. If it turns out to be as mild as they claim then Omicron maybe the best thing to happen during this pandemic. It might even mean the end of this pandemic.

让我们希望奥密克戎将是最后一大波,然后我们就能恢复正常了。如果结果像他们所说的那样温和,那么奥密克戎也许是这次大流行期间发生的最好的事情。这甚至可能意味着这场大流行的结束。

CanoePainter
i mean south africa got hit hard by delta, people got some immunity, and then they got hit hard by omicron. so it seems like a bit of a jump to think that a big wave prevents the next big wave.

我想说南非受到了德尔塔毒株的重创,人们获得了一些免疫力,然后他们又受到了奥密克戎毒株的重创。所以,指望一个大波能阻止下一个大波似乎有点不靠谱。
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Idea_list
South Africa got hit hard in numbers but not in severity it seems which is not necessarily a bad thing. Most people will get it but very few people will die from it.
So IF we have new mutant and it would be very immune evasive then yeah a new wave may start . That would be a surprise though.
But of course nobody KNOWS exactly how things will turn out , we are only guessing , predicting things and my guess is that omicron could be the last big wave and after that the vast majority of the people will develop some immunity so things may finally start calming down.
We are developing new medicines and we have the capacity to adapt existing vaccines to newer variants as well etc so we are not at the same place we were at the beginning of this pandemic IMO. Covid COULD turn into the next cold like disease which we will have to deal with once in a while but that's all. It may become endemic so we may not get rid of it totally but it wont be as severe as we had this last two years probably.

南非是在病例数量上受到了严重打击,而不是严重程度上,这似乎未必是件坏事。大多数人会感染它,但很少有人会死于它。
所以,如果我们有新的突变体,并且它会非常免疫逃避,那么,是的,新的一波疫情可能会开始。这将是一个“惊喜”。
但当然,没有人确切知道事情会如何发展,我们只是猜测、预测,而我的猜测是奥密克戎可能是最后一个大波,在那之后,绝大多数人会产生一些免疫力,所以事情最终会开始平静下来。
我们正在开发新的药物,我们也有能力使现有的疫苗适应新的变种等等,所以我们现在已经不是在这场大流行开始时的我们了。新冠病毒可能会变成下一种类似感冒的疾病,我们将不得不偶尔应对,但也仅此而已。它可能会成为地方病,所以我们可能不会完全摆脱它,但它可能也不会像过去两年那样严重了。

CanoePainter
I think everything you've said is an absolute best case scenario. Currently it looks like the immunity from infection does not last that long but we will see.

我觉得你说的一切都是最好的剧情发展。但目前看来,对感染的免疫力不会持续那么久,但我们将拭目以待。

Idea_list
The humoral immunity may not last that long but cellular immunity might and you don't need to have ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE to have immunity to prevent a new big wave.
Yes this is the best case scenario but it doesn't mean that it is very unlikely. I think the chances of this happening is higher than you d expect but again these are only predictions so we don't KNOW how things will go we are only guessing.
Omicron , if it turns out to be as mild as some doctors claim, could be the best thing to happen during this whole pandemic is my guess.

体液免疫可能持续不了那么久,但细胞免疫也许能,你不需要每个人都有免疫才能阻止新一波疫情。
是的,这是最好的情况,但这并不意味着非常不可能。我认为这种情况发生的几率比你预期的要高,但这些只是预测,所以我们不知道事情会如何发展,我们只是猜测。
奥密克戎,如果结果像一些医生所说的那样温和,那么可能是在整个大流行期间发生的最好的事情了——这是我的猜测。

CanoePainter
Except it may be paving the way to the next mutation that isn't affected by immunities from vaccines or previous infections.
Could go either way and with so many people insisting that this is the time to just start living with covid without any public health measures, it's difficult to be optimistic.

但它可能会为下一个不受疫苗或以前感染的免疫影响的突变铺平道路。
两种情况都有可能发生,很多人坚持认为,现在是开始与新冠肺炎一起生活的时候了,不用采取任何公共卫生措施,但(现实)很难让人乐观。

nsap200
So covid is indistinguishable from a cold, then?

所以新冠肺炎和感冒没什么区别,是吧?

Unsounded
It really depends, I had Covid last Christmas and it was the sickest I’ve ever been. I had a consistent 100+ fever spiking to 104 every night, chills, insane brain fog, shaking, and difficulty breathing. My body has never felt that bad, it was like my veins were sore and I could feel my self slipping away. I still have trouble breathing a year later, and my brother who also got sick has complications as well.
It’s not just the common cold for everyone. In comparison my fiancé didn’t even get sick at the time in the same room for the entire 3 weeks I was down. My mother also got sick from us and had no symptoms. It manifests in many different ways, but all I know is that I’d never want anyone to get what I had. I was anxious sick that I was going to keel over, 2.5 weeks in I was finally able to get a steroid to help finally kick it but even at that appointment I had to get treated in the urgent care room because my blood sugar and pulse dropped incredibly low. I basically passed out because it was too much on my heart.

这要看情况,去年圣诞节我感染了新冠肺炎,那是我有史以来病得最严重的一次。我的体温持续100+(华氏度),每晚飙升至104度,寒战,疯狂的脑雾,颤抖,呼吸困难。我的身体从来没有感觉这么糟糕过,就像我的血管在疼痛,我能感觉到我自己正在被送走。一年后,我仍然呼吸困难,我的弟弟也感染了,他也有并发症。
并不是所有感染者都像普通感冒一样。相比之下,我的未婚夫甚至没有感染——他在同一个房间里呆了整整三周。我的母亲也从我们那里感染了,但没有任何症状。症状表现在很多方面,但我只知道我不想让任何人遭我受过的罪。我担心自己会垮掉,两个半星期后,我终于能够用一剂类固醇药来帮助我最终摆脱它,但即使在那次诊治中,我也不得不在紧急护理室接受治疗,因为我的血糖和脉搏下降得非常低。我基本上昏过去了,因为我的心脏承受了太多疾病压力。

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c0-pilot
Genuine question: So if Covid now only exhibits mild, cold-like symptoms, why is it such a big deal anymore?

真正的提问:如果新冠肺炎现在只表现出轻微的、类似感冒的症状,为什么它还那么重要呢?

dedicated-pedestrian
Because it doesn't only display those symptoms.
Or, precisely, it doesn't present with severe symptoms in most people.
The problem is that a few people (per 1k, 10k, whatever) still get severe symptoms.
The fact that it spreads so much faster is the problem here - a lot more people get it, which means the number of severe cases can still be as high as the peak of Delta if not higher.
It's all about whether the hospital system will collapse in my book. All measures the past two years have been aimed mostly at preventing that, knowing that it would be impossible to actually stop the spread.

因为它不仅仅显示这些症状。
或者,准确地说,它在大多数人身上并不表现出严重的症状。
问题是,有些人(每1000人,每10000人,或者之类的比例)仍然有严重的症状。
它传播得如此之快,这就是问题所在——更多的人感染,这意味着严重病例的数量可能仍然和德尔塔高峰一样高,如果不是更高的话。
在我的认知里,问题是关于医院系统是否会崩溃。过去两年的所有措施主要是为了防止这种情况的发生,因为他们知道实际上不可能阻止这种传播。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Krypton_Jon
I love seeing so many people go out while having Symtoms and always try to justify it to everyone around them as just a minor cough or sniffles.
I just think everytime how fucked we are.

我喜欢看到这么多人在有症状的时候出去,总是试图向周围的人证明这只是轻微的咳嗽或鼻涕。
我只是觉得每一次我们都这么cao蛋。

Butternades
I’ve been consistently getting tested but I’m dealing with recovering from an allergy episode that fucked up my throat so I am coughing periodically. My voice is also slightly hoarse, but I absolutely know the cause

我一直在进行检测,但我的过敏发作把我的喉咙搞得很糟,所以我正在恢复中,所以我周期性地咳嗽。我的声音也有点嘶哑,但我绝对知道原因

PM_ME_GLUTE_SPREAD
Same. Had a legit cold Tuesday morning, got tested Wednesday afternoon, negative.
Have still been trying to quarantine myself within reason though. No need to spread any disease around that I don’t need to. I’m just lucky I have a job that was totally cool with me taking off because of the sniffles lol.

我也一样。周二早上感冒了,周三下午做了检测,结果呈阴性。但我还是试着把自己隔离在合理的范围内。没必要去传播任何我不需要的疾病。我只是很幸运,我有一份完全不介意我因为流鼻涕而请假的工作,呵呵。

Kriztauf
I'm from the US but have been living in Germany throughout the whole pandemic. The US's response has been a complete shit show compared to here. And in typical American fashion, people there have just normalized the problem rather than actually attempting to address it. I mean they've been having a minimum of 1,000 people dying every day in the US of Covid since the beginning of the delta wave during the summer. It's like cases and deaths never really returned to baseline, they just plateaued as the viruses jumps around to different parts of the country. There are still counties in places like Missouri and Idaho with 30% vaccination rates for people older than 65.
It's extremely frustrating and the narrative on the pandemic is so far divergent from reality that I worry half the country has now been conditioned to believe that all public health measures are completely useless and the only way to react to a pandemic is to let it wash over you. I just pray the next plague doesn't start somewhere like Texas or Florida where this past year they've essentially banned the enforcement of any public health measures against any disease, not just covid.

我来自美国,但在整个疫情期间我一直生活在德国。与中国相比,美国的反应简直就是一场狗屎秀。典型的美国做法——那里的人们只是将问题正常化,而不是真正试图解决它。我的意思是,自从夏季德尔塔开始以来,美国每天至少有1000人死于新冠。就好像病例和死亡人数从来没有真正回到基准过,它们只是随着病毒在这个国家的不同地区跳跃而趋于稳定(而不是回落)。在密苏里州和爱达荷州仍然有一些县,65岁以上人群的疫苗接种率仅为30%。
非常令人沮丧,关于大流行的叙述与现实相差如此之远,我担心这个国家一半的人现在已经习惯于相信所有公共卫生措施都是完全无用的,应对大流行的唯一办法是就放任它席卷你。我只是祈祷下一场瘟疫不会发生在德克萨斯或佛罗里达这样的地方,过去一年,他们基本上禁止对任何疾病采取任何公共卫生措施,而不仅仅是新冠肺炎。

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