美网友:你们是否也看到了美国在不久的将来会崩溃的危险信号?【part2】
2022-02-11 碧波荡漾恒河水 24909
正文翻译


正文见part1

评论翻译
antonsc2
The main problem is how much influence the US government has over the entirety of the US population. The amount of power that the US gov holds over people's lives has increased dramatically, and this has only accelerated with the government overreach during the covid pandemic. Naturally, when a government has more impact on people's lives overall, who is in charge will by extension have more impact on the average person before. This is why people get so divisive and rabid over politics; because who is in power affects them alot more now than it did a couple of decades ago. Really, the only solution I see to not have a political crises in the US is to give governments less power of people's daily lives, so that way they don't get as concerned about who is in power as they do now.

主要问题是美国政府对全美人口的影响力有多大。美国政府对人民生活所掌握的权力急剧增加,而且在新冠肺炎大流行期间,随着政府的过度扩张,这一权力只会加速增长。当然,当一个政府对人民生活的整体影响更大时,由谁掌权将进一步对普通人产生比以前更大的影响。这就是为什么人们对政治如此的对立和狂热;因为现在谁掌权对他们的影响比几十年前要大得多。真的,我认为美国避免政治危机的唯一解决办法,是减少政府对人民日常生活的权力,这样他们就不会像现在那样担心谁在掌权。

c0rnm0n3y
Unfortunately it’s really hard to take away a government’s power once it has it but I agree. The influence a big government has on ordinary people has lead to a multitude of problems

不幸的是,一旦政府拥有权力,就很难剥夺了,但我同意。大政府对普通民众的影响导致了许多问题。
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Prof_Pentagon
I was literally having this discussion with my uncle the other day, im surprised other people see this

前几天我真的和我叔叔讨论过这个问题,我很惊讶其他人会看到这个。
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J_walk83
All the time. And people are just popping out kids like everything going to be great. Yeah we're fucked.

一贯如此。人们拼命生孩子,觉得一切都会变得很好。是的,我们完蛋了。

NoobGamer880088
Yes. As a foreigner, the collapse of the US will happen because their model for Life is not sustainable. There's no balance between needs & wants. Too much is wasted, destroyed yet people are homeless & barely scraping by. People are too busy with talk Shows, Social media & other forms of degeneracy than actually something productive. Biggest negative is A No Respect Culture & Power over Power. My nation is also emulating the US too so we will also follow the US path downhill.

是的。作为一个外国人,我认为美国将会发生崩溃,因为他们的生活模式是不可持续的。需求和欲望之间没有平衡。浪费和破坏的太多了,而人们却无家可归,勉强度日。人们忙于脱口秀、社交媒体和其他的堕落形式,而忽略了一些真正有用的事情。最大的缺点是不尊重文化和权力凌驾于权力之上。我们国家也在效仿美国,所以我们也将沿着美国的道路走下坡路。

Of-course USA is the poster boy, a lot of countries are having the same problem & it is a social change.

当然,美国是个代表性国家,很多国家都有同样的问题,这是一场社会变革。

NoobGamer880088
Addendum Too less spent on Healthcare & Education and too much on Pointless Wars.

在医疗保健和教育上花得太少,在无意义的战争上花得太多。

bring_back_my_tardis
Yes. I was wondering if the US was headed toward a civil war during the Trump era.

是的。在特朗普时代,我就想过美国是否正走向一场内战。

c0rnm0n3y
It seems we’ve been inching towards a civil war since 2016

自2016年以来,我们似乎一直在慢慢走向内战。

Bill_lives
We're actually IN one right now. It's not fought with bullets etc but freedoms (like the right to vote) ARE being attacked by those that benefit from limiting certain segments

我们现在实际上就处于内战之中。这场内战不是用子弹打的,而是自由(比如投票权)正在遭到那些从有限的特定群体中获益的人攻击。

One politician said if we don't' change (voting laws) we'll never win another election.

一位政治家说过,如果我们不改变(选举法),我们将永远无法赢得下一次选举。

Sorry I don't' have a lix and if in some sense I misquoted, I apologize.

对不起,我没有链接,如果在某种程度上我引用错了,我道歉。

But there ARE those who do think certain people should NOT vote because they don't have the right info to make an informed decision.

但也有人认为某些人不应该投票,因为他们没有正确的信息来做出明智的决定。

Which SOUNDS like if they don't see that my side is right, they should not be part of the decision making process

这种说法听起来就像:如果他们不明白我的观点是正确的,他们就不应该参与决策过程。

I predict in November there will be at least ONE state that will overturn a result - not because they have evidence but because they have the power to do it.

我预测11月至少会有一个州推翻选举结果,不是因为他们有证据,而是因为他们有权力这么做。

That will be the first real shot.

那将是真正的第一枪。

bearlybalanced
I honestly had to check my cognitive dissonance after the pandemic money printing escapade.. no way did I think we could further our collective debt footprint exponentially all the while each and every group feeling broke unseen and marginalized and blaming each other -perfect conditions for collapse especially when the elected leaders only participate in infighting and not any actual representation of the people.

老实说,在大流行印钞的出轨行为之后,我不得不检查了我的认知失调。我不认为我们可以在每个群体都感觉被忽视、被边缘化、互相指责的同时,成倍地扩大我们集体的债务足迹,这是崩溃的完美条件,特别是当当选的领导人只参与内斗,而不代表人民的时候。

Tantalizing_Smile
LOL. That Ni is not letting you see the bigger picture. The USA has the world's leading currency. If you lose that, then your USA can collapse. You confound a drop in standard of living with collapse. Now, for all of you Rome conspiracy theorists, remember that it went from monarchy to republic to empire. There were at least three political systems before the Western Empire collapsed. And the Eastern Roman Empire (aka Byzantium) collapsed nearly 1,000 years later, in 1453. So the USA might go from democracy to dictatorship due to inequitable land distribution, but I think news of its imminent collapse are overrated.

哈哈,那个Ni不让你看到大局。美国拥有这个世界的硬通货。如果你们输了,那么你们的美国就会崩溃。而你把生活水平的下降和崩溃混为一谈了。现在,我要对所有的罗马阴谋论者说,记住它是从君主制,变成共和制,再变成帝国的。在西罗马帝国崩溃之前,至少出现了三种政治制度。而且东罗马帝国(又名拜占庭)是近1000年后的1453年崩溃的。所以美国可能会因为不公平的土地分配而从民主走向独裁,但我认为它即将崩溃的消息被夸大了。

niceboy_90
40% of your currency has been printed since 2020. 40%!!! You are just in the beginning stages of your inflation. My fear is that you will drag a lot of other nations down with you and leave the world stage for China.

自2020年以来,你们印出了40%的货币。40% ! !你们仅仅处于通货膨胀的初级阶段。我担心的是,你们会把很多其他国家拖下水,并离开世界舞台,让位于中国。

c0rnm0n3y
The U.S. is already dead, I could see it falling apart into factions due to the major political divides here. China is growing rapidly but they are wasting a lot of money on making themselves look impressive (look up China’s empty skyscrapers and real estate problems). I think the U.S. will collapse, China will try to fill that void but will struggle in doing so. This will lead to a world with no clear superpower. It’ll be interesting to see how this impacts all of us

美国已经死了,我可以预见,它正由于巨大的政治分歧而四分五裂。中国正在快速增长,但他们在渲染自身形象方面浪费了很多钱(看看那些空荡荡的摩天大楼以及真正的房地产问题)。我认为美国将会崩溃,中国将试图填补那个空白,但会很费力。这将导致一个没有清晰超级大国的世界。看看这将对我们所有人造成的影响会很有趣。

NomDePlume711
Universal basic income will be implemented within 20 years. Industries will change to allow people to live entirely on UBI. People will migrate to lower cost of living regions. China's growth will stall due to demographic collapse. Things in the US are not as bad as they seem in the media (surprise, surprise). Things will be better not worse in the near future.

将在20年内实施全民基本收入。行业将改变,允许人们完全依靠UBI生活。人们将迁移到生活成本较低的地区。中国的增长将因人口问题而停滞。美国的情况并不像媒体报道的那么糟糕(惊讶,惊讶)。在不久的将来,情况将会好转而不是恶化。

DrSaturnos
Yes. My take is more economic red flags.

是的,我认为更多的是经济方面的危险信号。

Average household debt is increasing. At its worse that it’s been since 2007.

平均家庭债务正在增加,处于自2007年以来最糟糕的状况。

Everyone in my state thinks they will be rich is they buy a house today which was costing 50% just 2-3 years ago. The same people who were laughing at me for buying my house 3 years ago at the cost are now buying worse houses for 50% more of what my house was at that time. It’s just insane.

我所在州的每个人都认为,如果他们今天买了一套房子,就代表他们是有钱人,而就在2-3年前,这套房子的价格还只有50%。那些三年前嘲笑我花大价钱买房子的人,现在却以比我当时高50%的价格买了更差的房子。真是疯狂。

FED printing did not seem to help with inflation as they expected. Quantitative easing once again proves to not really work.

美联储印刷钞票似乎并没有像他们预期的那样有助于抑制通胀。定量宽松再一次被证明不起作用。

Inflation is growing at a fast pace.

通货膨胀正在快速增长。

The FED is wanting to tapper buying bonds as aggressively as they were.

美联储希望人们像过去那样积极地减少购买债券。

Supposedly there is a shortage in workers. Which is weird. How can every possible industry have a shortage in workers but the unemployment rate is down to 4%.

据说存在工人短缺。这一点很奇怪。每个可能的行业都有劳动力短缺,但失业率却降到了4%。

I think we’re are heading toward a disastrous economic season in the coming years.

我认为未来几年我们将迎来一个灾难性的经济季节。

Whatyoufocusongrows
The other day I discovered the house next to my parents was worth 120,000 dollars in 2005 and is now worth 700,000 dollars. I will be lucky enough to inherit my parents house so I will benefit from this but it is virtually guaranteeing a near feudalism level of wage slavery for the younger generations. The price of housing, college, healthcare cannot continue to raise like it has without society collapsing evenutally.

前几天,我发现我父母旁边的那栋2005年价值12万美元的房子,现在价值70万美元。我很幸运,能继承父母的房子,因此我将从中受益,但这实际上让年轻一代毫无悬念的成为接近封建水平的工资奴隶。住房、大学和医疗保健的价格不可能继续这样上涨,而不发生社会的最终崩溃。

The way I see it even if you're well off its basically going to be like living in a nice area of Detroit. You aint gonna be living comfortably even if you're well off when a gigantic part of the population has no stake in society, no reliable income or future.

在我看来,即使你很富裕,基本上也会像住在底特律的一个好地段一样。即使你很富裕,当很大一部分人口不能从社会中分一杯羹,没有可靠的收入或未来,你也不会生活得很舒适。

chaos_given_form
I personally don't see a collapse in the near future for the USA. We are an economic and militaristic powerhouse. I think the major issue with the way we view ourselves is due to the rise of social media ( we have always had some problems some of which were kind of big ). I think we will continue to grow but we will still broadcast the good bad and ugly and make small changes as we go.

我个人认为美国在近期内不会崩溃。我们是一个经济和军事强国。我认为,我们之所以这样看待自己,主要问题是由于社交媒体的崛起(我们一直有一些问题,其中一些问题相当严重)。我认为我们将继续增长,但我们仍将宣传好的、坏的和丑陋的,并在我们前进的过程中做出微小的改变。

Annilee_Rose
It’s oddly exciting to be in such interesting times, yes it is chaos, but fascinating to watch.

生活这样一个有趣的时代,是一种奇怪的兴奋,是的,它是混乱的,但看着很迷人。

A lot of Europe is not much better off, there is a lot of instability across the board. I don’t think we are anywhere near total collapse yet, but we are walking a line.

欧洲很多地区的情况并没有好到哪里去,那里普遍存在很多不稳定因素。我认为我们远未到达完全崩溃的地步,但我们在走直线。
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I think we are at a crossroads, but in some areas we have actually moved in a positive direction. And crossroads have occurred many times before, every major war in our history was a time of chaos, and there was a huge chance of failure.

我认为我们正处于一个十字路口,但在一些领域,我们实际上已经朝着积极的方向前进。十字路口曾经出现过很多次,我们历史上的每一场重大战争都是一段混乱的时期,都有巨大的失败可能性。

As entertaining as it would be to watch the fall of the US, I think in many ways we are moving forward. Also outside of social media, many issues are not as extreme. Negative catastrophizing news keeps you hooked.

看着美国衰落固然有趣,但我认为在很多方面我们都在前进。此外,在社交媒体之外,许多问题也没有那么极端。只是负面的灾难性新闻让你上瘾。

Many social issues are slowly evening out, but remember these things take generations to fully correct.

许多社会问题正在慢慢消失,但请记住,这些问题需要几代人才能完全纠正。

Our society is progressing at an unfathomable rate. Progress and change are happening, but it takes humans time to adapt, so expect a bit of lag on the human end. As sad as it is to say, certain behaviors and extremes with die-off somewhat when the generations they were most prent in. It’s our job to make the world a little bit better, move in the best direction, and make those small steps so that the generation that replaces us can do the same. As much as I’d like to watch it play out, many things are just a matter of time and small progressions.

我们的社会正在以不可估量的速度进步。进步和变化正在发生,但人类需要时间来适应,所以预期人类这方面有点滞后。虽然很遗憾,某些行为和极端现象正随着它们最盛行的那几代人的逝去而消失。我们的工作就是让世界变得更好一点,朝着最好的方向前进,并且小步前进,让我们的下一代也能做到这一点。尽管我很想看到它的结局,但许多事情只是时间问题和进展不够大。

My biggest concern in our economy and international relations, but if we get some good leadership in office, it can be fixed. But again, a complete fix will take generations, and can be easily undone. That's why being active in politics, especially local state-level politics is important, I don’t like it, but I don’t want to leave all these problems to my kids one day.

我最关心的是我们的经济和国际关系,但如果我们有好的领导人,这是可以解决的。但是,完全修复将需要几代人的时间,并且很容易半途而废。这就是为什么积极参与政治,特别是地方一级的政治很重要,我不喜欢,但我不想有一天把所有这些问题留给我的孩子。

I’m also concerned about the inability to respect differences, across the whole spectrum of differences. Despite talking about equality and acceptance, we highlight differences to polarizing rising levels. My grandparents didn’t egg their neighbors house because they voted for a different president. Media polarisation is quite frightening. I love to debate, and I often take an opposite stance from my own to try and poke holes, see different sides of an argument, etc. In many circles, people will flat-out shun you for even considering a different opinion. They also take it as a personal attack, instead of an attack or exploration of their argument. It’s sad. I hope this also dies out with time. Looking at history, if enough people can move beyond it, the rest will follow. I feel like I was built for critical thinking, and currently we seem to be losing it, because we keep canceling anyone who questions. Questions are good, if you can’t attack your own argument, I don’t trust your position. You learn that in formal debate when you have to prep for both sides. Always be able to argue against yourself, and don’t be afraid to explore opposing views. In the least it will help you understand people and perhaps have more empathy for their positions, and why they took up those positions. You understand people, then you are in a position to change their lives as well. And if they don’t want help or change, let them be. They are not ready yet, and respecting that will preserve the opportunities for change in the future. Alienating them will only cause defensiveness, hurt and hate.

我还担心人们不能尊重差异,不能尊重所有的差异。尽管人们大谈平等和接受,但我们对差异的强调高到了两极分化的水平。我的祖父母并没有因为投票给了另一个总统,而往他们邻居的房子扔鸡蛋。但媒体的两极分化相当可怕。我喜欢辩论,而且我经常站在与自己相反的立场,试图找出漏洞,看到争论的不同方面,等等。在很多圈子里,人们甚至会因为你考虑了不同的意见而直接避开你。他们也把这当作人身攻击,而不是在攻击或探索他们的论点。这很可悲。我希望这也会随着时间的推移而消失。回顾历史,如果有足够多的人能够超越这种局限,其他的人就会跟随。我觉得我天生就具备批判性思维,而现在我们似乎正在失去这种能力,因为我们总是取消任何提出问题的人。提问很好,如果你不能反驳自己的论点,我就不相信你的立场。在正式的辩论中,你必须为双方论点做好准备。永远要有反驳自己的能力,不要害怕探索相反的观点。至少,它会帮助你理解别人,也许会对他们的立场产生更多的同情,以及他们为什么会采取这些立场。你了解人们,那么你也能改变他们的生活。如果他们不需要帮助或改变,就随他们去吧。他们还没有准备好,而且尊重这一点将保留未来变革的机会。疏远他们只会导致防御、伤害和仇恨。

Also, remember we are not only a young country, but one of if not the only democratic-republic around, we are a trial of new government, and we don’t have as much history to guide us.

此外,请记住,我们不仅是一个年轻的国家,而且是一个(如果不是唯一的)民主共和国,我们是一个新政府的试验品,没有那么多的历史来指导我们。

We are an experiment! And we get to not only watch it all happen, but actually effect the final outcome. I’m not hopeful, I’m watching and instigating healthy progress.

我们是一个实验!我们不仅能看到这一切的发生,还能实际影响最终的结果。我不抱希望,我在观察并倡导健康的进步。

Eskimoobob
It's almost a too big to fail situation. We'll probably enter strife and come out better, but who knows the ups and downs during that time.

这几乎是一个“大到不能倒”的局面。我们可能会陷入冲突,然后好起来,但谁知道那段时间的起起落落呢。

There is no where and no one who would take the US territory. It might splinter but even then it would stay as a government that isn't recognized.

没有哪个国家,也没有哪个人会夺走美国的领土。它可能会分裂,但即便如此,它仍将作为一个不被承认的政府存在。

cervantes__01
They rode this cycle of capitalism to it's bitter end.. there is fewer places for investors to find growth so it becomes exploitative (rent). Debt is at it's peak and asset valuations are at their peak. They made 1 generation wealthy and it was supposed to trickle down.. instead they still hold the wealth but everyone else has to get squeezed to support them further.. an old generation doesn't spend their wealth like a new generation would.. so some industries and jobs are super profitable while others starve to their death. A total financial collapse is the only solution.. and it should have happened in '08.. but govs and central banks are hell-bent on staving it off for as long as they can.

他们沿着这个资本主义循环走到了尽头……可供投资者寻找增长空间的地方越来越少,因此变得有剥削性(租金)。债务处于顶峰,资产估值也处于顶峰。他们创造了一代富人,但本该是涓滴效应的。相反,他们仍然把持着财富,但其他所有人不得不遭到压榨以进一步支持他们……老一代不会像新一代那样挥霍财富。因此,一些行业和工作非常有利可图,而另一些则嗷嗷待哺。金融全面崩溃是唯一的解决办法……这本该在08年发生。但各国政府和央行却在拼命地拖延时间,越久越好。

Badger-Honey
No.

不。

MastermindUtopia
Joe Biden already feels like a lame duck president in his fist year… He really doesn’t care if his opponents win in the midterms and the next Presidential election.

乔·拜登在上任的第一年就像个跛脚鸭总统,他真的不在乎他的对手是否会在中期选举和下届总统选举中获胜。

Mister_Way
The most important question a person faces is not what the times will be like in their lives, but what their lives will be like in their times.

一个人面临的最重要的问题,不是他们的生活所处的时代是什么样子,而是在他们所处时代,他们的生活是什么样子。

Neon_Wivir
What I'm more worried about is the lack of patriotism in the future generations. If we are no longer working for our country, then we are working for our selves under the guise that we are working for our country. Something I'm sure we all could sense in most politicians these days.

我更担心的是未来几代人缺乏爱国主义精神。如果我们不再为我们的国家工作,那么我们就是在打着为国家工作的幌子为自己工作。我相信我们现在都能从大多数政客身上感受到这一点。
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Aoric_
Democracy failed. Time to learn Russian

民主失败了,是时候向俄罗斯学习了。

dwi
From the outside looking in, it doesn't look promising. It seems to me if one tries to dig down into the root causes, it would be the corruption in US politics, as in politicians are greatly influenced by corporate money. It's hard to see how that can be undone without some radical action. Sometimes things get so fucked up the only way out it to break it and start again.

从外界看来,美国的情况并不乐观。在我看来,如果要深入挖掘其根本原因,那就是美国政治中的腐败,因为政治人物深受企业金钱的影响。如果不采取一些激进的行动,很难看到这种情况如何被消除。有时候情况已经非常糟糕,唯一的办法就是打破它,重新开始。

luckyninja864
Welcome to the oligarchy.

欢迎来到寡头政治。

archangel7088
Absolutely- I saw the red flags for quite some time (especially while Obama was president and the shift of both parties). I was hoping that it was just my mind seeing all of the bad and making it far worse than it actually was... then the pandemic hit and it verified my worst fears. I have since started learning other languages (Norwegian currently) to give myself an advantage if I need to leave the US and find refuge in another country. This is, of course, drastic and is only plan D, but I need all of the contingency plans I can muster because so many things can (and likely will) go wrong in the next 5 years or so.

当然——我看到这种危险信号已经有一段时间了(特别是在奥巴马担任总统和两党换届的时候)。我曾希望看到这些坏事只是我的想法,并且想象的比实际情况更糟……然后这场疫情袭来,它证实了我最担心的事情。从那以后,我开始学习其他语言(目前是挪威语),以便在我需要离开美国到另一个国家寻求庇护时获得优势。当然,这是非常极端的,也是唯一的应急计划,但我需要所有我能想到的应急计划,因为在未来5年左右,很多事情会(而且很可能)变得非常糟糕。

1013RAR
Yes and myself and my business has been preparing for it for years

是的,我和我的生意为此准备了很多年。

niceboy_90
Im from Europe and have lost a lot of money shorting the American stock market. Every time I think it’s about to go belly up there is more taper and stimulus from your fed. Your economy is only a sharp rise in interest rates for the average person from a 1930s depression. Enjoy the roaring 20s while you can. Because there is a loooooong way down.

我来自欧洲,做空美国股市赔了很多钱。每当我认为经济即将崩溃时,美联储就会出台更多的紧缩措施和刺激措施。对经历过上世纪30年代大萧条的普通人来说,你们的经济不过一次利率急剧上升的情况。趁你们还能,好好享受咆哮的20年代吧。因为未来还有很长的路要走。

tbochristopher
Read the book titled The Fourth Turning. We seem to be in a standard pattern. This phase of the pattern will include chaos, a falling apart, and then a rebirth of a new United States. So it's not the downfall of the U.S. (though it will feel like it) Instead it's a refactoring or a time of forced destruction of what isn't working, which motivates everyone to try something new for the next 4 standard cycles.

请阅读《第四转折》一书。我们的情况似乎很正常。这一阶段的格局将包括混乱、分崩离析,然后是一个新美国的重生。所以这并不是美国的衰落(尽管感觉上是这样),相反,这是一种重构,或者是对不工作的东西进行强制破坏,这将激励每个人在接下来的4个标准周期中尝试一些新的东西。

[dexed]
The fact that we put on 1 trillion dollar in cc debt during the pandemic.

事实上,在大流行期间,我们背负了1万亿美元的cc债务。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Nouseriously
The US has been through a LOT worse, even in my lifetime.

即使在我的有生之年,美国也经历过很多更糟糕的事情。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Look at the 70s. The economy was way worse, divisions between people were worse (some actually cheered the National Guard killing 4 students at Kent State), a President was forced to resign, America pulled out of Vietnam & the govt we'd been supporting collapsed (much like Afghanistan), the embassy staff in Tehran was held hostage, the Weather Underground & similar groups did literally hundreds of bombings.

看看70年代。当时的经济更糟糕,人与人之间的分歧更严重(一些人甚至为国民警卫队杀害肯特州立大学学生而欢呼),一位总统被迫辞职,美国撤出越南,我们支持的政府崩溃了(就像阿富汗),德黑兰的大使馆工作人员被扣为人质,地下气象组织和类似的组织制造了数百起爆炸事件。

It really looked like the US was falling apart, then things got better.

当时看起来美国真的在分崩离析,但后来情况好转了。

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