专家称,英国家庭面临着自上世纪50年代以来最大的生活水平下降
2022-03-05 jiangye111 16188
正文翻译
UK households face biggest fall in living standards since 1950s, say experts
-Russian invasion of Ukraine could further hike global energy prices and cut real incomes by 3.1%, economists fear

专家称,英国家庭面临着自上世纪50年代以来最大的生活水平下降
——经济学家担心,俄罗斯打击乌克兰可能会进一步推高全球能源价格,并使实际收入减少3.1%


(Rising energy bills are likely to further push up inflation, economist predict.)

(经济学家预测,不断上涨的能源账单可能会进一步推高通胀。)
新闻:

UK households could suffer the biggest annual decline in their living standards since the 1950s as the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushes up global energy prices, experts have warned.

专家警告称,由于俄罗斯“入侵”乌克兰推高了全球能源价格,英国家庭生活水平可能遭遇自上世纪50年代以来最大的年度下降。

With inflation already at the highest rate for 30 years, analysts said a sustained rise for wholesale oil and gas markets would further add to the squeeze on families from soaring utility bills.

由于通胀率已经处于30年来的最高水平,分析师表示,石油和天然气批发市场的持续上涨,将进一步加剧公用事业费用飙升给家庭带来的压力。

Analysts at Bank of America said that under such a scenario household real income could plunge by 3.1% in 2022 compared with a year earlier, in the biggest annual drop since at least 1956, the year of the Suez crisis.

美国银行的分析师表示,在这种情况下,2022年家庭实际收入可能较上年同期下降3.1%,这是至少自1956年(也就是苏伊士运河危机爆发的那一年)以来的最大年度降幅。

In what would mark a worse squeeze than during the oil shock of the 1970s, it comes after wholesale European gas prices rocketed on Thursday after Russian tanks rolled over the border in a full-scale invasion.

这将是一次比上世纪70年代石油危机期间更严重的紧缩。此前,在俄罗斯坦克全面开进乌克兰后,欧洲天然气批发价格在周四飙升。

Although gas prices fell back on Friday on a calmer day for financial markets, analysts warned they remained higher than the start of the week and could surge higher again should tensions between Moscow and the west escalate further.

尽管上周五天然气价格回落,对金融市场来说,这是一个较为平静的日子,但分析师警告称,价格仍高于本周初,如果莫斯科与西方之间的紧张局势进一步升级,价格可能再次飙升。

European stock markets closed higher on Friday with the FTSE 100 up 260 points, or 3.6%, while commodity prices reversed some of Thursday’s leaps. The oil price fell back from almost $106 per barrel to about $98, while wholesale gas prices dropped from 350p per therm to about 250p.

欧洲股市周五收高,富时100指数上涨260点,涨幅3.6%,而大宗商品价格则逆转了周四的部分涨幅。油价从每桶近106美元回落至约98美元,而天然气批发价格从每千卡350便士降至约250便士。

However, this week’s increases have fed through to petrol and diesel prices at filling stations across Britain. The RAC said prices rose to new record highs for the fourth time this week, with unleaded at almost 150p per litre and the price of diesel above 153p for the first time ever.

然而,本周的涨价已经影响到英国各地加油站的汽油和柴油价格。英国皇家汽车俱乐部表示,本周汽油价格第四次创下历史新高,无铅汽油价格接近每升150便士,柴油价格首次超过153便士。

It comes with inflation already at the highest level since 1992, having reached 5.5% last month as the world economy grapples with the fallout from Covid-19. Even before the Russian invasion, the Bank of England forecast inflation would reach more than 7% in April when Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, increases its household price cap by 54% to reflect a winter surge in gas prices.

与此同时,由于全球经济正在应对新冠肺炎的影响,通胀率已经达到了1992年以来的最高水平,上个月达到了5.5%。甚至在俄罗斯发动进攻之前,英格兰银行就预测通胀率将在4月份达到7%以上,当时英国能源监管机构天然气与电力市场办公室将其家庭价格上限提高了54%,以反映冬季天然气价格的飙升。

However, analysts warned the conflict in Ukraine could drive up the inflation rate further still, possibly to more than 8% this year and remaining above the Bank’s 2% target rate for longer than previously thought.

不过,分析人士警告称,乌克兰的冲突可能会进一步推高通胀率,今年的通胀率可能会超过8%,并在高于英国央行2%目标的时间上保持更久。

Should gas, electricity and oil prices persist at levels reached on Thursday, Bank of America said inflation could be about 1.9 percentage points higher than previously thought by the end of the year, sticking close to 6%.

美国银行表示,如果天然气、电力和石油价格继续维持在周四达到的水平,那么到今年年底,通胀率可能会比此前预计的高1.9个百分点,接近6%。
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With growth of workers’ pay, benefits and other sources of income failing to keep pace, real household income could fall by 3.1% this year, “comfortably the largest calendar year fall since at least 1956”, according to the US bank.

由于工人工资、福利和其他收入来源的增长未能跟上步伐,今年实际家庭收入可能下降3.1%,据美国银行称,“这是至少自1956年以来最大的日历年降幅”。
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Robert Wood, UK economist at Bank of America, said: “There is a lot of volatility. Energy prices have subsequently dropped very sharply today, so the numbers wouldn’t look as negative for real incomes. It’s a risk scenario based on where energy prices got to on Thursday. We’re substantially below that now but there is always a risk they could go up again.

美国银行英国经济学家罗伯特·伍德表示:“市场波动很大。能源价格随后在今天急剧下跌,因此这些数字对实际收入来说不会看起来是负面的。这是一个基于周四能源价格的风险情景。我们现在明显低于这个水平,但总有再次上涨的风险。

“If inflation is higher there is a bigger fall for real incomes. We’re looking at this year a very large reduction in households spending power compared with previous years. How the economy navigates through that is quite uncertain.”

“如果通胀更高,那么实际收入的下降幅度更大。我们看到今年的家庭消费能力与前几年相比大幅下降。经济要怎么渡过这一难关还相当不确定。”

The hit to living standards is expected to affect poorer households most, as lower-income families spend proportionally more on essentials such as energy and food than richer households.

生活水平受到的打击预计对较贫困家庭的影响最大,因为较低收入家庭在能源和食品等必需品上的支出比例高于较富裕家庭。

Weaker consumer spending power is also likely to act as a drag on economic growth, slowing the UK economy and raising questions over the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates and the government response to the cost of living crisis.

消费者消费能力减弱也可能拖累经济增长,拖累英国经济,并对英国央行的加息计划和应对生活成本危机的政府措施提出质疑。

“In time the conflict will also broaden and deepen the living standards squeeze here at home,” said Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation thinktank. “The chances of low- and middle-income households getting some respite from the growing squeeze on living standards later this year are receding rapidly.”

智库“决议基金会”的首席执行官托尔斯滕·贝尔说:“随着时间的推移,这场冲突还会扩大和加深国内的生活水平挤压。今年晚些时候,中低收入家庭在生活水平日益下降的情况下获得喘息的机会正在迅速减少。”

评论翻译
Guppytron
31 never knew what I wanted to do, did min wage jobs since I was 16. 3 years ago started my own business. Hit with pandemic, just start to financially recover and even had a pay rise to £24k a year! Then landlord sells up, new rent prices is a stupid amount more a month than I was paying, new bill prices, fuel costs. My business is also getting hit with massive cost increases as well. I just want a break, I'm so tired....

我从不知道自己想做什么,从16岁开始就做着最低工资的工作。三年前我开始了自己的事业。受到疫情的打击,经济刚刚开始恢复,甚至有过加薪到2.4万英镑一年!然后房东卖掉了房子,新的租金比我之前每月支付的多了一大笔钱,新的账单价格,燃料成本。我的生意也受到了成本大幅增加的冲击。我只想休息一下,活得太累了……

moreton91
I feel that. 31 too qnd just so sick of working so hard to get the bare minimum to get by. I'm trying to start my own buisness too because it might be my only chance for me and my other half to afford to rent our own place rather than constantly house-sharing with friends.

我能感受到。我已经厌倦了如此努力地工作只为了得到最低限度的生活。我也在尝试自己创业,因为这可能是我和我的另一半唯一能负担得起自己单独租房子,而不是经常和朋友合租房子的机会。

Gullflyinghigh
Yay, yet more joy for the millennials, though I'm sure the cavalcade of shit that's come our way is somehow our fault for not giving up avocados, or some other meaningless soundbite toss.

太好了,千禧一代又多了一份喜悦,尽管我敢肯定,我们遭遇的这一大堆破事在某种程度上是我们的错,因为我们没有放弃牛油果(译注:“千禧一代买不起房是因为牛油果吃多了”的梗),或者其他一些没道理的扯淡。

SplurgyA
I'm a Millennial, but my Dad's Silent Generation (he was born before the war and grew up in London during the Blitz).
I guess finally he'll be able to bond over shared generational experiences when I start experiencing waking up with frost on the inside of the window, washing once a week while sharing bathwater with my household, subsisting on tinned food and offal...

我是千禧一代,但我父亲是沉默的一代(他出生在战前,在伦敦闪电战期间长大)。
我想,当我开始经历起床时窗户里结霜,每周只洗一次澡,与家人分享洗澡水,靠罐头食品和动物内脏维持生活的时候,他终于可以在两代人共同的经历中找到纽带了……

FinestFoetus
I'm not quite 30 and I grew up like that. I feel for the people who have always lived like that and their standard of living is going to get even worse. It is so fucked up.

我还不到30岁,我就是那样长大的。我为那些一直这样生活,并且生活水平还会变得更加糟糕的人感到难过。真是太cao蛋了。
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WynterRayne
I'm approaching 40 and I grew up in cold houses... mainly because my parents grew up in cold houses and chose to do that instead of 'wasting' money on heating.
As for me, I set the thermostat to 19 and leave it. Always comfortable.... Would be more comfortable if the double glazing was sealed properly and if Summer didn't turn the place into a delayed effect oven.

我快40岁了,我就是在冷房子里长大的……主要是因为我的父母在冷房子里长大,所以也选择这样做,而不是把钱“浪费”在取暖上。
至于我,我把恒温器调到19度,然后就不调了。总是舒服……。如果双层玻璃密封得当,如果夏天没有把这个地方变成一个延迟效应的烤箱,会更舒适。

Spellcheck-Gaming
There will come a breaking point for the people of the UK and when it happens, the tories will rue the day they ever mentioned austerity.

英国人将会面临一个崩溃的时刻,到那时,保守党将会后悔当初就不该提什么紧缩政策。
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TinFish77
While that is true there is an attack on the process of democracy never before seen in Britain in the modern age.
As with the rise of fascism most people just don't believe this sort of thing happens in the UK, but it is happening and it's the Conservative Party doing it.

尽管这是事实,但民主进程遭到了在当代英国前所未见的攻击。
就像法西斯主义的崛起一样,大多数人不相信这种事情会发生在英国,但它确实发生了,而且是保守党在做。

dwair
Everything is moving rightward. It's not that most people just don't believe this sort of thing happens in the UK, it's more that it plays into their narrative and they actively want it to happen.
What was seen as extremism 30 or 40 years ago has become main stream political policy because it attracts voters. Sure it has to be dressed up a bit in a fluffy blanket along the lines of "Think of the children", "Disabled dole scroungers" or even Starmer's recent vow to increasing punitive sentencing, but the majority of the electorate are lapping it up.

一切都在右倾。这并不是说大多数人不相信这种事情会发生在英国,而更多的是这就是他们的叙事,并且他们积极地希望它发生。
30或40年前被视为极端主义的政策,如今已经变成主流政治政策,因为它吸引了选民。当然,它必须在“为孩子们着想”、“残疾人失业救济者”或甚至是斯塔默最近发誓要增加惩罚性判决,但大多数选民都欣然接受了。

arrrghdonthurtmeee
The problem is not everyone is affected equally. There was a post a little while back on this sub about a massive bonus boom in the banking and financial sector again. This was heavily upvoted interestingly, despite this boom basically being underpinned with quantitative easing money funded by the tax payer.
Oil companies are making massive profits so shareholders are happy. Some people on this sub were literally shouting about their hatred for all pensioners a few weeks ago, including hating the poor ones because they lacked basic financial planning while still being too wealthy.
Brexit would seem to be easy to claim it is a disaster, and yet the builder, decorator and electrician that did work on our house recently loved it because their EU competition had gone so business was great.

问题是并不是每个人都受到了同样的影响。之前有一篇关于银行和金融部门的大规模奖金热潮的文章。有趣的是,尽管这种繁荣基本上是由纳税人资助的量化宽松货币支撑的,但这一提议得到了大量支持。
石油公司正在赚取巨额利润,所以股东们很高兴。几周前,这个版块上的一些人还在大声疾呼他们对所有退休人员的仇恨,包括对穷人的仇恨,因为他们缺乏基本的财务规划,但仍然太富有了。
似乎很容易说英国脱欧是一场灾难,但最近在我们家工作的建筑商、装饰师和电工却很喜欢脱欧,因为他们的欧盟竞争对手已经消失了,所以生意很好。

merryman1
We have spent the last decade insisting it is better people have some kind of job rather than be reliant on welfare. So now we have millions upon millions of people who, despite being in work, can barely even afford to eat without the state giving them further handouts. And this was done deliberately so the government could point to low rates of unemployment to show what a good job it was doing. Now we're in a situation where bullshit "self-employment" jobs are more common and widespread than they've ever been, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and so many folks seem completely unable to work out why so many working people are struggling to keep food on the table and heat in their homes.

过去十年来,我们一直坚持认为,人们有某种工作比依赖福利更好。所以现在我们有成千上万的人,尽管有工作,但如果没有政府的进一步救济,他们甚至连吃饭都买不起。这是故意做的,这样政府可以指出失业率很低,表明自己做得很好。今天的情况是,在生活成本危机中,狗屁的“自主创业”工作比以往任何时候都更普遍、更流行,并且很多人似乎完全搞不懂,为什么这么多工薪阶层要为养家糊口和家里取暖而苦苦挣扎。

filippo333European
I saw a homeless man yesterday on the train who was begging me to help him. He was claiming that he'd been mugged and held at knifepoint, the deliquents stole his food and medications of which he suffers from extreme anxiety disorder and depression. He also had really bad skin and suicidal thoughts.
I offered to buy this man food and also antidepressants pills of which he still had the prescxtion for. I asked him to call the suicide help hotline ASAP. If I was to help him, he had to promise me he'd at the very least call.
It's crazy how many more homeless people I've seen the past few years in my area; about 5 years ago it was super rare I'd even see one :(

昨天我在火车上看到一个无家可归的人,他求我帮助他。他声称自己遭到抢劫,并被持刀挟持,这些罪犯偷走了他的食物和药物,他因此患上了极度的焦虑症和抑郁症。他的皮肤也很糟糕,还有自杀的念头。
我提出给他买食物和抗抑郁药,他还留着处方。我让他尽快拨打自杀求助热线。如果我要帮他,他必须向我保证他至少会打电话给我。
在过去的几年里,我在我的地区看到了更多无家可归的人,这简直太疯狂了;大约5年前,这是非常罕见的,我甚至一个都看不到:(

Toosmartformesister
My partner and I have struggled in the past. Now we are now getting to a point where we actually feel comfortable financially, and pretty much every bill goes up tenfold so we will essentially be back where we started. Cool.

我和我的老伴过去一直在挣扎。现在我们正在实现经济条件很好的状况,结果几乎每一笔账单都涨了十倍,所以我们基本上又回到了革命前。真酷。

merryman1
Yup same here. Every personal step forwards I've taken this last decade where I've felt finally a chance to get a bit of breathing space and get saving, we're just hit by some sort of crisis that leads to prices and costs increasing to the point that all my gains are just gone. I'm in my 30s now and honestly don't feel much better off or financially secure than when I was a student, its ridiculous.

是的,我也一样。我在过去的十年里迈出的每一步,我都觉得终于有机会得到一点喘息的空间,并开始存钱了,但我们受到了某种危机的打击,导致价格和成本上升,以至于我所有的收益都消失了。我现在30多岁了,说实话,我居然觉得没有什么比我当学生的时候更富裕或经济上更安全了,这太荒谬了。
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prhague
Yep. I grew up in a council house, managed to pull myself up by my bootstraps. Then the Tories come along and try to smack me back down again.

是的。我在政府救济所长大,靠自己的力量自立了起来。然后,保守党人又来了,试图再次让我回到革命前。

CraniumCow
Is this all the Tories fault though? There's an energy crisis all over Europe.

难道这都是保守党的错吗?整个欧洲都在经历能源危机好不好。

Sparkly1982
If the company that extracts the gas from under the sea and the company that supplies it to you were still the same company (operated by the government for the good of the people), then there's a good chance that the price rise wouldn't affect consumers quite as much, one way or the other.

如果从海底开采天然气的公司和向你提供天然气的公司仍然是同一家公司(服务公益事业的国有公司),那么,不管怎样,价格上涨很有可能不会对消费者造成太大影响。

cbzoiav
Problem is we produce roughly half of the gas we use. We're still heavily dependent on imports.
Meanwhile if prices were lower people would use more of it (how many people are heating their house less this winter than last?) and further increase the amount we need to import.

问题是,我们所使用的天然气大约只有一半是由我们自己生产的。我们仍然严重依赖进口。
与此同时,如果价格降低,人们会更多地使用它(今年冬天有多少人比去年冬天供暖少了?),从而进一步增加我们需要进口的数量。

PyrrhuraMolinae
It’s absolutely the Tories’ fault. They’ve slashed budgets for education, health care, and aid. They’ve sold off the public programs like transport, giving greedy companies free license to raise ticket prices up and up and up. Other countries have capped the rates energy companies can charge. The Tories just told their cronies to bleed us for us much as they can.
Energy prices are rising all over Europe, yeah, but the Tories are making damn sure the poor stay as poor as possible and they get richer.

这绝对是保守党的错。他们削减了教育、医疗和援助的预算。他们卖掉了交通等公共项目,给贪婪的公司免费许可证,让他们不断提高价格。其他国家已经限制了能源公司可以收取的费用。而保守党只是告诉他们的密友尽他们所能地榨干我们。
没错,整个欧洲的能源价格都在上涨,但保守党正在确保穷人尽可能地穷下去,而他们自己却在变得更富。

Satansshoeshiner
Im 21 ans genuinely scared i may be homeloess by next year, ive been barely covering bills since i was 16 and living alone…im so scared i might have to keep starving myself just to pay gas/electric on a flat that is a shithole. Lets not even talk about how my council tax is £96…barely getting by on the minimum wage and its only getting worse.

我21岁了,真的很害怕明年我可能会无家可归,我从16岁起就只能勉强支付账单,而且我一个人住,我很害怕,我可能不得不忍饥挨饿,只是为了付一套像粪坑一样的公寓的煤气费/电费。让我们更别说我的市政税是96英镑了……我仅靠最低工资勉强度日,而且只会变得更糟。

mateltFranco-Yorkshire
Well, it's time to stop participating in society. Without any cash left to spare, we should all hit where it hurts. If we stop buying shit we are manipulated into thinking we need, companies' profits will fall and those abject so-called rich people will put their best surprised pikachu faces on.
Ffs we should all be on strike at the moment.

是时候停止参与社会活动了。没有多余的现金,我们都应该打到这个问题的痛处。如果我们停止购买那些我们认为自己需要的东西,公司的利润就会下降,那些卑鄙的所谓富人们就会戴上上他们最惊讶的皮卡丘表情。
我们现在应该全体罢工。

Zeionlsnm
Hypothetically a shortage of workers leads to companies offering more, agreeing with unxs pay increases and so on.
In reality, no company director wants to be the one to tell the shareholders "I have just agreed with the unxs that staff will be paid more and the company will make less profit as a result of my decisions."
Instead they are happy to let the companies output suffer and blame it all on the unxs, this lets them avoid being fired as the shareholders can't really argue that they want someone else who would agree to the unxs demands and have them make less profit. But if the director agrees and the company declines they can be fired.

假设工人短缺导致公司提供更高的工资,同意工会加薪等等。
事实上,没有一家公司的董事愿意这样告诉股东:“我刚刚与工会达成一致,我的决定将提高员工的工资,公司的利润将减少。”
相反,他们乐于让公司的产出受到影响,并将其归咎于工会,这让他们避免了被解雇,因为股东们不能真的争辩说,他们想要的是另一个同意工会的要求,让他们获得更少的利润的经理。但如果董事同意而公司拒绝执行,那么他们可能就会被解雇。

[dexed]
The era of cheap energy is coming to an end.
We've known this was coming as a society for decades, but chose not to wean ourselves off fossil fuels whilst they were readily available.
We've used up most of the easy access supplies of fossil fuels, and are finding the remaining supplies are increasingly locked away behind difficult geopolitics.
So much of the West's response to Russia has been neutered by our dependence on them for their gas supplies.
We need to prioritise going green, and build up Europe's energy security for the future.

廉价能源的时代即将结束。
几十年来,我们都知道将会迎来这样一个社会,但我们没有选择放弃对化石燃料的依赖,因为它们是现成的。
我们已经用完了大部分容易获得的化石燃料供应,并发现剩余的供应正日益被困在艰难的地缘政治背后。
由于我们对俄罗斯天然气供应的依赖,西方对俄罗斯的很多反应已经被抵消了。
我们需要优先考虑绿色发展,并为未来建立欧洲的能源安全。

PapaGuhl
I’ve just fixed my utilities bill this week for two years at a +105% rise, at £295 per month.
Per month.
It’s only going to get worse too with conflict in Ukraine, however I consider us the lucky ones.
I can shuffle some things around and make the rise less of a hit.
It’s awful that standards are just heading backwards.

我这周刚刚付清了两年的水电费,每月295英镑,上涨了105%。
每个月上涨。
乌克兰的冲突也只会让情况变得更糟,但我认为我们是幸运的。
我可以调整一些东西,让涨价的攻击性力度更小。
生活水平正在倒退真是太糟糕了。

TheDevils10thMan
Just got home from work, spent £1.54 a litre on diesel to get there and back, and came home to a message from the energy supplier saying their prices are going up ~50% across the board, standing charges, units, the lot.
Fan fucking tastic.

刚下班回家,在通勤的路上花了1.54英镑买了一升柴油,回家时收到能源供应商的信息,说他们的价格正在全面上涨~50%,包括固定收费、单位、等等。
真是太tm棒了。

Pink_Flash
And then I think about how I might have to live like this for another 50 years. Nobody caring, everyone out to underpay me and rob me blind. Won't ever have the things some previous generations have. Will probably have to work into my 80's as they put retirement age up.
Is this living? What is there to look forward to?

然后我想到我可能得再这样生活50年。没人在乎,每个人都想少给我钱,然后把我洗劫一空。永远不会拥有前几代人拥有的东西。我可能得工作到80多岁,因为他们提高了退休年龄。
这就是生活吗?还有什么盼头呢?

mabmagwenaalan
It's going to be a shit show globally. It will be bad here but potentially catastrophic in the middle east and Africa if Ukrainian wheat is not available and when the prices for chemical feed-stocks used in fertilizers increase dramatically.

这将是一场全球性的闹剧。这里的情况很糟糕,但如果乌克兰小麦供应不足,而用于化肥的化学原料价格大幅上涨,中东和非洲的情况可能会是灾难性的。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Plastic-Major4102
April/May is going to be a very hard month for many with tax increase + council tax + heating bills.

4月/ 5月对很多人来说将是一个非常艰难的月份,税收增加 + 市政税 + 取暖费。

Mr__RandomYorkshire
Ah we finally made it back to the good old days. Just like the geriatric tory voters wanted. Time to start rationing food, water, heat and electricity.... actually most of us are already doing that.

啊,我们终于回到了美好的过去。正如年迈的保守党选民所希望的那样。是时候开始配给食物、水、热和电了……事实上,我们大多数人已经在这么做了。

webbyyyLondon
Is this supposed to be one of the significant upsides of Brexit?

这应该被视为是英国脱欧的重要好处之一吗?

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