英国平均房价首次超过26万英镑
2022-03-06 jiangye111 10203
正文翻译
Average UK house price exceeds £260,000 for first time
-Shortage of homes for sale in February pushes up house price growth for seventh straight month

英国平均房价首次超过26万英镑
——2月份待售房屋短缺,推动房价连续第7个月上涨


(The price of a typical home is about 20% higher than it was in February 2020, shortly before Covid lockdowns started in the UK, Nationwide says.)

(全英房屋抵押贷款协会表示,普通住房的价格比2020年2月,也就是英国开始封锁之前,高出约20%。)
新闻:

A shortage of homes for sale last month sent house price growth spiralling for the seventh consecutive month to 12.6%, prompting concerns that property values are moving further out of reach of first-time buyers.

上月待售房屋的短缺导致房价连续第七个月飙升至12.6%,引发了人们对房地产价格进一步超出首次购房者承受能力的担忧。

Prices of the average home increased by 1.7% in February to more than £260,000 for the first time, said the building society Nationwide, accelerating the pace of growth from 11.2% in January.

全国住房抵押贷款协会表示,2月份平均房价首次上涨1.7%,达到26万英镑以上,较1月份的11.2%有所加快。

Analysts, who expected a smaller increase in prices last month, said the ending of Covid restrictions enforced because of the Omicron variant and the threat of several interest rate rises this year from the Bank of England also spurred buyers to secure homes ahead of the peak Easter buying period.

预计上月房价会出现小幅上涨的分析师们表示,由于奥密克戎变种的出现,取消了对疫情的限制,以及英国央行今年数次加息的威胁,也促使购房者在复活节购房高峰期前购房。

Stiff competition between lenders for mortgage business, which has driven the offers for fixed-rate mortgages lower in recent months, was another factor driving prices higher.

贷款机构之间对抵押贷款业务的激烈竞争是推高房价的另一个因素。近几个月来,这种竞争压低了固定利率抵押贷款的报价。
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Nationwide said the increase pushed the average British house price to £260,230, after soaring by almost £30,000 over the past 12 months – the biggest annual increase in cash terms that its monthly index has recorded in more than 30 years of its existence.

全英房屋抵押贷款协会表示,在过去12个月上涨近3万英镑后,此次上涨将英国平均房价推高至260230英镑,这是该协会成立30多年来月度房价指数中现金计算的最大年度涨幅。

The price of a typical home is about a fifth higher than it was in February 2020, shortly before the coronavirus lockdowns started in the UK, according to Nationwide. This equates to a cash increase of £44,140.

根据全英房屋抵押贷款协会的数据,一套普通住房的价格比2020年2月英国冠状病毒封锁开始前不久的价格高出约五分之一。这相当于增加了44140英镑的现金。

As house price growth has outpaced wage increases, and housing affordability has become stretched, the price of a typical home sits at about 6.7 times average earnings, up from a ratio of 5.8 in 2019, according to Nationwide.

根据全英房屋抵押贷款协会的数据,随着房价增速超过工资增速,住房负担能力变得捉襟见肘,典型住房的价格约为平均收入的6.7倍,高于2019年的5.8倍。

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said housing market activity had remained robust in recent months, with mortgage approvals continuing to run above pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year.

全英房屋抵押贷款协会首席经济学家罗伯特·加德纳表示,近几个月来,房地产市场活动依然强劲,抵押贷款审批继续高于20年初疫情爆发前的水平。

He said: “A combination of robust demand and limited stock of homes on the market has kept upward pressure on prices.

他表示:“市场上强劲的需求和有限的房屋存量使房价面临上行压力。

“The continued buoyancy of the housing market is a little surprising, given the mounting pressure on household budgets from rising inflation, which reached a 30-year high of 5.5% in January, and since borrowing costs have started to move up from all-time lows in recent months.

考虑到通胀上升给家庭预算带来的越来越大的压力(1月份通胀率达到了5.5%的30年来最高水平),以及近几个月来借贷成本从历史低点开始上升,房地产市场的持续上涨有点出人意料。

“The strength is particularly noteworthy since the squeeze on household incomes has led to a significant weakening of consumer confidence.”

“由于家庭收入缩水导致消费者信心明显减弱,这一势头尤其值得注意。”
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Ross Boyd, the founder of the mortgage comparison platform Dashly.com, said: “First-time buyers are as keen as ever to get out of the rental market and on to the property ladder, as it’s usually cheaper to own if you can find the deposit.

抵押贷款比较平台Dashly.com的创始人罗斯·博伊德表示:“首次购房者像以往一样热衷于退出租赁市场,转投房产市场,因为如果你能找到首付,通常买房会更便宜。”

“The major challenges facing the market right now are a scandalous lack of stock, interest rate rises and the surging cost of living.”

“市场目前面临的主要挑战是库存严重不足、利率上升和生活成本飙升。”
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Martin Beck, the chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said most purchases were likely to be by households that had saved during the pandemic and were more immune from the rising cost of living when deciding to buy.

安永项目俱乐部首席经济顾问马丁·贝克表示,大多数购房的家庭可能是在疫情期间存钱的,在决定购买时,对生活成本上升的影响更具抵抗力。

Some households might also anticipate that the conflict in Ukraine and the growing uncertainty about the economic outlook will restrain the Bank of England from increasing rates much above 1%.

一些家庭可能还预计,乌克兰的冲突和对经济前景日益增长的不确定性将限制英国央行将利率提高到远高于1%的水平。

“But overall, while the cost of mortgages may rise more slowly than had been expected, the outlook for the housing market is looking less buoyant,” he said.

"但总体而言,尽管抵押贷款成本的上升速度可能低于预期,但房地产市场的前景似乎不那么乐观,”他表示。

Gardner said that if the labour market remained strong and inflation continued to rise towards 8%, as many analysts predicted, the Bank would have little choice but to raise rates this year.

加德纳说,如果劳动力市场保持强劲,通货膨胀率继续向8%上升,就像许多分析师预测的那样,英国央行将别无选择,只能在今年加息。

“Assuming that labour market conditions remain strong, the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates, which will exert a further drag on the market if this feeds through to mortgage rates.

“假设劳动力市场状况保持强劲,英国央行可能会加息,如果这传导至抵押贷款利率,将对市场造成进一步拖累。

“Housing affordability has already become more stretched, in part because house price growth has been outstripping earnings growth by a wide margin since the pandemic struck.”

“住房负担能力已经变得更加吃紧,部分原因是自疫情爆发以来,房价涨幅一直远远超过收入涨幅。”

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评论翻译
liamthelad
Who actually benefits from property prices being out of control besides huge commercial landlords, banks and people getting off the property ladder?
If you're on the ladder, prices are probably increasing at the same pace as your house, so if you wanted to move it'll cost you all the same. Plus you have to deal with stamp duty going up which can be a huge outlay.
I don't have some answer to a rhetorical here, I genuinely don't know. I understand a fear of negative equity, but its not like an x increase in house prices in such a short space of time is particularly bankable.

除了巨大的商业业主、银行和出手房地产的人之外,还有谁真正从失控的房价中受益?
如果你手上有房产,那么价格可能和你的房子增长的速度一样,所以如果你想搬家,你的花费都是一样的。此外,你还得应付印花税的上涨,这可能是一笔巨大的支出。
我无法回答这个问题,我真的不知道。我理解人们对负资产的担忧,但在如此短的时间内房价上涨X点,并不是特别有吸引力的。

soulnotsoldier
If you're on the ladder, prices are probably increasing at the same pace as your house, so if you wanted to move it'll cost you all the same. Plus you have to deal with stamp duty going up which can be a huge outlay.
My crude understanding is it's because mortgages are highly leveraged.
You buy a £100K house with a 10K deposit. After 5 years you sell for £200K. Let's say you've also paid £20K off the mortgage by then. You owe £70K to the bank (let's ignore interest).
Now you're left with £130K in cash to use as a deposit on another home.

“如果你手上有房产,那么价格可能和你的房子增长的速度一样,所以如果你想搬家,你的花费都是一样的。此外,你还得应付印花税的上涨,这可能是一笔巨大的支出”
我的粗略理解是,这是因为抵押贷款的杠杆率很高。
你花10万英镑买一栋房子,押金1万英镑。5年后,你卖20万英镑。假设到那时你已经还清了2万英镑的抵押贷款。那么你欠银行7万英镑(不考虑利息)。
现在你剩下13万英镑的现金,可以作为另一套房子的押金。

shrimpleypibblez
Productivity has increased 300% since 1970 and wages barely keep up with inflation.
Property prices have gone up 1000% but wages stay the same.
Cost of living continues to increase - including new technology and the power to run it (you need the internet and a mobile just to get a job, £100 a month working tax minimum) - cost of living from energy to food increases.
Wages barely keep up with inflation.
In the 1990s - during our lifetime - house prices were about x3 the average wage.
They’re now 6.7 times the average wage.
What’s the plan here? Late Stage UK Capitalism is drifting towards actual feudalism. Indentured servitude in order to afford basic survival. That’s essentially where we are now - earning our own right to exist. At the behest of a ruling class who blame us for the circumstances they orchestrate.

自1970年以来,生产率增长了300%,而工资几乎跟不上通货膨胀。
房地产价格上涨了1000%,而工资却保持不变。
生活成本持续增加——包括新技术和运行技术的能源(你需要网络和手机才能找到工作,每月最低工作税为100英镑)——从能源到食品的生活成本都在增加。
工资几乎跟不上通货膨胀。
上世纪90年代——在我们有生之年——房价大约是平均工资的三倍。
它们现在是平均工资的6.7倍。
你的计划是什么?晚期英国资本主义正在向真正的封建主义漂移。为了维持基本的生存而受契约奴役。这就是我们现在所做的——争取我们自己的生存权利。在一个统治阶级的命令下,他们把他们自己所策划的环境后果甩锅给我们。

trailing_comma
A lot of that productivity increase has come from automated systems/work assistant systems.
People are not magically working harder to increase productivity. Whats happened is the simple parts of a job have been automated so people can get more done while working the same amount.
The people that build and maintain those automated systems are being paid very nicely out of the extra revenue created by that, but if you are one of the people in an automated role all thats happened is that there are fewer jobs to go around and more people competing with you.

许多生产力的提高来自于自动化系统/工作助理系统。
人们并不是神奇地更努力地工作来提高生产力的。现在的情况是,工作的简单部分被自动化了,所以人们可以在做同样多的工作量的同时完成更多的工作。
建造和维护这些自动化系统的人从由此创造的额外收入中获得了丰厚的报酬,但是,如果你是一个在自动化岗位上工作的工人,那么所发生的一切就是:可供分配的工作越来越少,与你竞争的人越来越多。

Duke0fWellingtonLancashire
A lot of that productivity increase has come from automated systems/work assistant systems.
Obviously
People are not magically working harder to increase productivity. Whats happened is the simple parts of a job have been automated so people can get more done while working the same amount.
No, they're working more efficiently. A person using a tool like a computer can work way more efficiently. So yes, technological progress, but it doesn't generate productivity by itself.
The people that build and maintain those automated systems are being paid very nicely out of the extra revenue created by that, but if you are one of the people in an automated role all thats happened is that there are fewer jobs to go around and more people competing with you.
Which means suppressed wages...

“许多生产力的提高来自于自动化系统/工作助理系统”
显然嘛
“人们并不是神奇地更努力地工作来提高生产力的。现在的情况是,工作的简单部分被自动化了,所以人们可以在做同样多的工作量的同时完成更多的工作”
不,他们的工作效率更高了。一个人使用像计算机这样的工具可以更有效地工作。所以,是的,技术是进步了,但它本身并不能产生生产力。
“建造和维护这些自动化系统的人从由此创造的额外收入中获得了丰厚的报酬,但是,如果你是一个在自动化岗位上工作的工人,那么所发生的一切就是:可供分配的工作越来越少,与你竞争的人越来越多”
这意味着工资被抑制了……

shrimpleypibblez
Hence the gig economy, false “self employment”, the death of the stable career - you know, the economic basis of life for a huge swathe of the population.
In real terms, being pedantic about the fact that gross pay is less despite more people being in work even though productivity has increased isn’t really the answer, and doesn’t really tell us anything.
The “automation revolution” that was promised never actually came, because there’s a massive pool of available cheap labour as a result of stagnated wages and increased everything else.
The issue is that the things you got in exchange for your labour have dwindled. No security, worse pay, more hours, more responsibility.
Also, just because we outsourced our entire manufacturing industry does not mean no one works a manual job in this country. As the pandemic proved, we need <50% of the population to work all the time just to keep ourselves afloat.
The idea that machines account for all that additional productivity is kind of laughable, seeing as engineers, IT, and generally the “information” industries were among those able to not work during the pandemic - but the vast majority of others were still needed.

因此出现了零工经济,虚假的“自我雇佣”,稳定职业的消亡——你知道的,稳定职业是很大一部分人生活的经济基础。
就实际而言,迂腐地认为,尽管有更多的人在工作,尽管生产率提高了,但总工资却减少了,这并不是真正的答案,也不能真正告诉我们任何东西。
承诺的“自动化革命”从未真正到来,因为工资停滞不前、其他一切都在增长,导致了大量廉价劳动力的存在。
问题是你用劳动换取的东西已经减少了。没有安全感,工资更低,工作时间更长,责任更重。
此外,我们将整个制造业外包并不意味着在这个国家就没有人从事体力劳动了。正如大流行所证明的那样,我们需要不到50%的人口一直工作,只是为了能自我维持。
认为机器可以解释所有额外生产力的想法有点可笑,因为工程师、IT和一般的“信息”行业在大流行期间无法工作,但其他绝大多数行业仍然需要。

SubaruJusty1993
I’m a soldier and my Net is 21k which is higher than most other infantrymen, I want a home, why do I bother.

我是一名士兵,我的净收入是2.1万,比大多数其他步兵都高,我想要一个家,为什么我会为此烦扰。

s1ravariceEssex
How do living quarters and expenses work for soldiers? I've never known anyone in the military so would like to know. Thanks

士兵的宿舍和开支如何?我不认识军队里的人所以我很想知道。谢谢

neverbuythesun
I’m 25 and live with my parents, I’ve got a decent chunk of savings for a mortgage deposit but my wage is too low as a single earner (gonna try look for a new job even though I like mine.)
I’m priced out of the area I grew up and love, if I rent I’ll never buy, if I go travelling I’ll have no savings and mortgage when I get back. It feels like I’ve got no future or a really shit one! I’m not gonna off myself but I understand why young people do.

我今年25岁,和父母住在一起,我有一大笔存款供抵押贷款,但作为单独挣钱的人,我的工资太低了(我会试着找一份新工作,尽管我喜欢自己现在的工作)。
我住在我成长和热爱的地方,房价太高了,如果我租房,我就永远不会买房,如果我去旅游,等我回来的时候就没有存款来还贷了。我感觉我没有未来,或者是真正的未来!我不会自杀,但我理解年轻人为什么这么做。
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forestindustrialists
Those invested in property will argue with all sorts of airy phrases like: "yes, it's such a difficult situation this housing crisis, but unfortunately there's not much we can do without ruining the economy"
There'll be an excuse about why every policy to fix the housing crisis is wrong, or implausible or economically illiterate, but the fact remains the housing bubble needs to burst, and other countries have far better housing/rental markets.
When you profit from a massive passive wealth increase stream like property investment or landlordism (and what passive really means is the active working hours of someone else) it's very easy to create a convoluted moral and intellectual code that justifies carrying on as usual.
The problem is that our media and parliamentary systems are dominated by people from the above class, and because they set the conversational narrative they'll make it seem like what they're saying is "common sense" through the sheer hegemony they hold. They'll ridicule anyone who puts forward robust policy like rent controls and state-housing or right-to-buy for private renters.
There absolutely are policies to tackle this crisis - always keep that in mind and remember the housing bubble is a political choice, not an unavoidable part of the economy.

那些投资房地产的人会用各种夸夸其谈的说法进行辩论,比如:“是的,房地产危机的形势是如此艰难,但不幸的是,在不破坏经济的情况下,我们也无能为力。”
人们总有借口解释为什么每一项解决住房危机的政策都是错误的、难以置信的或经济上的无知,但事实是,住房泡沫需要破灭,并且其他国家的住房/租赁市场要好得多。
当你从大量的被动财富增长流中获利,比如房地产投资或地主主义(被动的真正意思其实是其他人的主动工作时间),很容易就会产生一种复杂的道德和知识代码,以证明一切都正常。
问题是,我们的媒体和议会系统被上层阶级的人所控制,因为他们设置了对话叙述,他们会通过他们所掌握的绝对霸权,让他们所说的看起来像是“常识”。他们会嘲笑那些提出强有力政策的人,比如租金控制、国家住房或为私人租房者提供购房权。
绝对有应对这场危机的政策——永远记住这一点,并记住房地产泡沫只是一种政治选择,而不是经济中不可避免的一部分。

leaskovski
I don't see an easy way out. A burst happens, which results in a reset, but then that leaves an insane amount of people in negative equity, who are then stuck in their current homes meaning people can't move up or down the ladder, which then means housing stock shortage for people trying to get onto the ladder, thus then starting the whole cycle again.

我看不出有什么简单的解决办法。泡沫破裂,导致经济重置,然后就会有大量的人处于负资产状态,他们被困在他们现在的房子里,这意味着人们不能在社会解梯上上下移动,这就意味着对于那些试图爬上梯子的人来说,房屋库存短缺,这样就又开始了整个泡沫循环。

londonmania
There won’t be a burst. Prices are completely correlated to the cost of debt. Once the price of servicing the loans increase, the cost of the underlying asset will decrease (over time) to the level in which the population can service the debt.
With property there will always be resistance to falls in price, as people will just not sell, which then supports the higher prices. It would take years (5-10 years) for prices to fall, and it probably won’t be nominal price falls. It will be in real terms, ie the £200k price will stay flat for 10 years, which effectively erodes its real value by 30%.

不会有破裂的。价格与债务成本完全相关。一旦贷款的还本付息价格上升,相关资产的成本(随着时间的推移)就将下降到人们能够偿还债务的水平。
对于房地产来说,价格下跌总是会受到阻力,因为人们不会出售,这就会支撑更高的价格。价格下跌需要数年(5-10年)的时间,而且很可能不会是名义价格下跌。它将是按实际价值计算的,即20万英镑的价格将在10年内保持不变,这实际上侵蚀了它30%的实际价值。
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EnderMB
It's frequently stated that the best thing for house prices is for them to stay stagnant for several years.
Growth means that the investment continues. A crash benefits those with liquid assets that want to invest. Keep things capped, and it's no longer an investment.
It would be great for many big countries to set a cap across their urban areas, and reducing that cap every five years. It keeps the market stable, forces investors to sell while they can, and allows governments to cap mortgages at the given cap.

人们经常说,对房价来说,最好的办法就是保持几年的停滞不前。
增长意味着投资将继续。崩盘有利于那些拥有流动性资产、希望投资的人。保持限制,它就不再是一项投资了。
对于许多大国来说,在他们的城市地区设置一个上限,并每五年降低一个上限,这将是非常好的。它能保持市场稳定,迫使投资者尽可能抛售,并允许政府将抵押贷款限制在给定的上限。

Mr_Ignorant
IMO, a good solution would to
A) All businesses to have a work from home option. If you take London as an example, you want live close to your work place or transport to get to your workplace. But if you don’t need to go to your workplace regularly, you don’t need to live so close. You can move out where house prices are substantially cheaper.
B) We need to build more houses. We just need to build enough houses that prices stop going up. If prices stagnate, no one loses on the value of the property, and can therefore move if they need to. People can slowly get back on the ladder as they get pay rises.

在我看来,一个好的解决方案会是:
1、所有企业都有在家工作的选择。如果你以伦敦为例,你希望住得离工作地点近或者通勤方便。但是如果你不需要经常去你的工作场所,你也就不需要住得这么近了。你可以搬到房价便宜得多的地方。
2、我们需要建造更多的房子。我们只需要建造足够多的房子,让房价停止上涨。如果房价停滞不前,没有人会损失房产的价值,因此他们可以在需要的时候搬家。随着工资的上涨,人们可以慢慢地回到阶梯上。

McGubbinsYorkshire
Surely the easy way out is to build more houses.
It's a simple supply/demand issue - people want more houses than are available, so the prices increase. To counter the increase you can either reduce demand or increase the supply or a combination thereof.
Reducing demand means tackling the negative aspects of population growth, reduction in multi-generation households, increasing numbers of people living alone, and population migration.
It would be much easier to tackle the supply issue, which largely means putting more homes on the market at a level that people can afford. So then you can increase the stock (i.e. build more houses) and/or reduce the number of vacant properties.

当然,最简单的解决办法就是建造更多的房屋。
这是一个简单的供求问题——人们想要的房子比可用的多,所以房价上涨了。为了应对这种增长,你可以减少需求或者增加供应,或两者结合。
减少需求意味着应对人口增长、多代家庭减少、独居人数增加以及人口迁移的负面影响。
解决供应问题要容易得多,这在很大程度上意味着将更多住房投放市场,使其处于人们能够负担得起的水平。因此,你可以增加库存(即建造更多的房子)和/或减少空置房产的数量。

SikhGamerWest Midlands
It is fucking insane. We bought last year at 300, neighbour sold his house 9 months later for 350.
The bubble needs to pop. It is not sustainable.

太tm疯狂了。我们去年花了30万买的房子,9个月后邻居以35万卖掉了他的房子。
房产泡沫需要破灭。这是不可持续的。

TheBrassDancer
I don't drink coffee or eat avocados for breakfast, and never did to begin with. Whatever will I do now to get a house?

我早餐不喝咖啡,也不吃牛油果,从来就没吃过(译注:千禧一代破产是因为牛油果吃多了的梗。)。我现在要做什么才能买到房子呢?

proonjooce
i count myself lucky every day that i was able to buy our house, a modest 2 bed, at the age of 35, and all it took was saving up 20k and also borrowing 20k from family as well! (which of course not everyone can do).
sometimes i look at our baby son and think how lucky i am to be able to have a baby and house and then i think how has it come to the point where basic human necessities such as shelter and the ability to reproduce are seen as privilege?
what is the actual point of this society if it can't provide this?

我每天都觉得自己很幸运,因为我能在35岁的时候买到我们的房子,一套说得过去的两居室,而这一切只花了我自己存的2万美元,再加上从家里借的2万美元!(当然不是每个人都能做到)。
有时我看着我们的孩子,会想我是多么幸运,能有一个孩子和房子,然后我想,事情是如何走到这一步的——像住房和生儿育女等基本的“人类必需品”都被视为一种特权了?
如果连这些都提供不了,那这个社会的实际意义何在?

HeavyBollocks
do you ever look at your baby son and think how he's going to be able to manage when he's looking to move out?

你有没有看着你的宝贝儿子想过,等到他打算搬出去住的时候,他将如何生活呢?

proonjooce
I try not to think too much about his future because its most likely going to be fucked in a variety of different ways.

我尽量不去想他的未来,因为他的未来很可能会以各种不同的方式被cao。

Childfree_CosySpace
And I’m sure he would rather his parents think before bringing him into a fucked up stressful world

我敢肯定他将来会希望他的父母当初在把他带到这个充满压力的世界之前好好想想的
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HeavyBollocks
wish my parents thought more about mine before having me...

要是我爸妈当年在怀我之前先多想一想该多好……

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