网帖翻译

Escobar: Sit Back & Watch Europe Commit Suicide

埃斯科瓦尔:坐视欧洲自杀

If the US goal is to crush Russia's economy with sanctions and isolation, why is Europe in an economic free fall instead?
The stunning spectacle of the EU committing slow motion hara-kiri is something for the ages... Like a cheap Kurosawa remake the movie is actually about the Empire of Lies-detonated demolition of the EU, complete with subsequent rerouting of some key Russian commodities exports to the US at the expense of the Europeans.
It helps to have a 5th columnist actress strategically placed, in this case astonishingly incompetent European Commission head Ursula von der Lugen, with a brand new vociferous announcement of an extra sanctions package: Russian ships banned from EU ports; road transportation companies from Russia and Belarus prohibited from entering the EU; no more coal imports (over 4.4 billion euros a year).

如果美国的目标是通过制裁和孤立摧毁俄罗斯经济，为什么欧洲的经济反而在自由落体?
欧盟实施慢动作切腹自杀这一令人震惊的奇观已经是很久以前的事了。就像黑泽明翻拍的一部廉价电影一样——这部电影实际上讲述的是谎言帝国引爆了欧盟解体，以及随后俄罗斯一些关键大宗商品以损害了欧洲利益为代价出口改道美国，。
在这个例子中，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩的能力惊人地不足——在关键战略职位上安排一位专栏作家兼女演员，并高调宣布一项新的额外制裁方案，更是证明了这点：禁止俄罗斯船只进入欧盟港口;禁止俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的公路运输公司进入欧盟;不再进口煤炭(每年超过44亿欧元)。

That translates in practice into the Empire of Lies shaking down its wealthiest – Western – clients/puppets. Russia of course is too powerful militarily. The Empire badly needs some of its key exports – especially minerals. Mission Accomplished in this case amounts to nudging the EU into imposing more and more sanctions and willfully collapsing their national economies, allowing the US to scoop everything up.
Cue to the coming catastrophic economic consequences felt by Europeans in their daily life (but not by the wealthiest 5%): inflation devouring salaries and savings; next winter energy bills packing a mean punch; products disappearing from supermarkets; holiday bookings almost frozen; Le Petit Roi Macron in France – maybe up to a nasty electoral surprise – announcing “food stamps like in WWII are possible”.

这在实践中转化为谎言帝国勒索其最富有的西方客户兼傀儡。俄罗斯的军事力量当然是非常强大的。帝国急需一些重要的出口产品，尤其是矿产。在这种情况下，“使命完成”意味着推动欧盟实施越来越多的制裁，故意让它们的国家经济崩溃，让美国渔翁得利。
欧洲人在日常生活中感受到即将到来的灾难性经济后果(但最富有的5%的人不会感受到)：通货膨胀吞噬了工资和储蓄；下一个冬天，能源账单将带来沉重的打击；产品从超市消失；假期几乎无望；法国的Le Petit Roi Macron宣布“可能会像二战那样发放食品券”，这可能会让选举结果出人意料。

We have Germany facing the returning ghost of Weimar hyperinflation; BlackRock President Rob Kapito saying, in Texas, “for the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want”; farmers in Africa not able to afford fertilizer at all this year, reducing agricultural production by an amount capable of feeding 100 million people.
Zoltan Poszar, former NY Fed and US Treasury guru, current Credit Suisse grand vizir, has been on a streak, stressing how commodity reserves – and here Russia is unrivaled – will be an essential feature of what he calls Bretton Woods III (yet, in fact, what’s being designed by Russia, China, Iran and the Eurasia Economic unx is a post-Bretton Woods).
Poszar remarks that wars, historically, are won by those who have more food and energy supplies, in the past to power horses and soldiers, today to feed soldiers and fuel tanks and fighter jets.

德国正面临魏玛共和国时期恶性通货膨胀幽灵的卷土重来；黑石集团总裁罗伯·卡皮托说，“在德克萨斯州，第一次，这一代人走进商店却买不到他们想要的东西”；非洲农民今年根本买不起化肥，导致农业产量减少，减少量足以养活1亿人。
前纽约联邦储备银行和美国财政部主管、现在是瑞士信贷高管的佐尔坦·波斯扎尔一直在强调大宗商品储备的重要性。 在这一点上，俄罗斯是无与伦比的——这将是他所称的布雷顿森林体系III的一个基本特征。（然而，事实上，俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和欧亚经济联盟正在设计的是一个后布雷顿森林体系）
波斯扎尔说，历史上，赢得战争的是那些拥有更多食物和能源供应的人，过去是马匹和士兵的能量，现在是士兵、坦克和战斗机的燃料。顺便说一句，中国几乎所有商品都积累了大量库存。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Poszar notes how our current Bretton Woods II system has a deflationary impulse (globalization, open trade, just-in-time supply chains) while Bretton Woods III will provide an inflationary impulse (de-globalization, autarky, hoarding of raw materials) of supply chains and extra military spending to be able to protect what will remain of seaborne trade.
The implications are of course overwhelming. What’s implicit, ominously, is that this state of affairs may even lead to WWIII.
Rublegas or American LNG?
The Valdai Club has conducted an essential expert discussion on what we at The Cradle have defined as Rublegas – the real geoeconomic game-changer at the heart of the post-petrodollar era. Alexander Losev, a member of the Russian Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, offered the contours of the Big Picture. But it was up to Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Finance, to come up with crucial nitty gritty details.
Russia so far was selling gas to Europe to the amount of 155 billion cubic meters a year. The EU rhetorically promises to get rid of it by 2027, and reduce supply by the end of 2022 by 100 billion cubic meters. Gromov asked “how”, and remarked, “any expert has no answer. Most of Russia’s natural gas is shipped over pipelines. This cannot simply be replaced by LNG.”
The risible European answer has been “start saving”, as in “prepare to be worse off. Reduce the temperature in households”. Gromov noted how, in Russia, “22 to 25 degrees in winter is the norm. Europe is promoting 16 degrees as ‘healthy’, and wearing sweaters at night.”

波斯扎尔指出，我们目前的布雷顿森林体系II是如何产生通缩冲动的(全球化、开放贸易、即时供应链)，而布雷顿森林体系III将导致供应链出现通胀冲动(去全球化、自给自足、囤积原材料)，额外的军事开支能够保护剩下的海上贸易。
其影响当然是巨大的。不祥的是，这种事态甚至可能导致第三次世界大战。
卢布天然气还是美国液化天然气？
瓦尔代俱乐部就我们在《摇篮》杂志里所定义的“卢布天然气”进行了一次重要的专家讨论：后石油美元时代的核心，真正的地缘经济游戏规则改变者。俄罗斯外交与国防政策委员会成员亚历山大·洛瑟夫给出了“大蓝图”的大致轮廓。但能源与金融研究所首席能源主任阿列克谢·格罗莫夫提出了关键的细节问题。
到目前为止，俄罗斯每年向欧洲出售的天然气总量为1550亿立方米。欧盟在口头上承诺到2027年将其归零，并在2022年底将供应量减少1000亿立方米。格罗莫夫问“如何做”，并评论说:“任何专家都没有答案。”俄罗斯的大部分天然气都是通过管道输送的。这不能简单地被液化天然气取代。”
欧洲人给出的可笑答案是“开始储蓄”，意思是“准备变得更糟。降低房屋温度”。格罗莫夫指出，在俄罗斯，“冬天22到25度是很正常的。在欧洲，16摄氏度被宣传为‘健康’，以及晚上穿毛衣。”

The EU won’t be able to get the gas it needs from Norway or Algeria (which is privileging domestic consumption). Azerbaijan would be able to provide at best 10 billion cubic meters a year, but “that will take 2 or 3 years” to happen.
Gromov stressed how “there’s no surplus in the market today for US and Qatar LNG.” And how prices for Asian customers are always higher. The bottom line is that “by end of 2022, Europe won’t be able to significantly reduce” what is buys from Russia: “they might cut by 50 billion cubic meters, maximum.” And prices in the spot market will be higher – at least $1,300 per cubic meter.
An important development is that “Russia changed the logistical supply chains to Asia already”. That applies for gas and oil as well:
“You can impose sanctions if there’s a surplus in the market. Now there’s a shortage of at least 1.5 million barrels of oil a day. We’ll be sending our supplies to Asia – with a discount.” As it stands, Asia is already paying a premium, from 3 to 5 dollars more per barrel of oil.

欧盟将无法从挪威或阿尔及利亚获得所需的天然气(这两个国家优先供应国内天然气消费)。阿塞拜疆每年最多能提供100亿立方米的天然气，但“这需要2到3年”才能实现。
格罗莫夫强调，“目前美国和卡塔尔的液化天然气市场没有剩余。”对亚洲客户来说，出价总是更高。底线是，“到2022年底，欧洲将无法大幅减少”从俄罗斯购买的东西: “他们最多只能削减500亿立方米。”而现货市场的价格将更高——至少每立方米1300美元。
一个重要的进展是，“俄罗斯已经将物流供应链转向了亚洲”。这也适用于天然气和石油:“如果市场出现过剩，你可以实施制裁。但现在每天至少短缺150万桶石油。而我们将把能源运往亚洲——并附带折扣。” 就目前的情况来看，亚洲已经在为每桶石油支付3到5美元的溢价。

On oil shipments, Gromov also commented on the key issue of insurance:
“Insurance premiums are higher. Before Ukraine, it was all based on the FOB system. Now buyers are saying ‘we don’t want to take the risk of taking your cargo to our ports’. So they are applying the CIF system, where the seller has to insure and transport the cargo. That of course impacts revenues.”
An absolutely key issue for Russia is how to make the transition to China as its key gas customer. It’s all about Power of Siberia 2 – which will reach full capacity only in 2024. And first the interconnector through Mongolia must be built – “we need 3 years to build this pipeline” – so everything will be in place only around 2025.

关于石油运输，格罗莫夫还评论了保险这一关键问题:“保险费的额外支出更高。在乌克兰之前，它都是基于离岸价格制度。现在买家说:‘我们不想冒险把你的货物运到我们的港口。’所以他们采用到岸价制度，卖方必须投保并运输货物。这当然会影响收入。“
对俄罗斯来说，一个绝对关键的问题是如何向中国转变，让中国成为其主要的天然气客户。这事关“西伯利亚力量2号”——它将在2024年达到满负荷运行。首先，必须修建通过蒙古的互连管道——“我们需要3年时间来修建这条管道”——因此，一切将在2025年左右到位。

On the Yamal pipeline, “most of the gas goes to Asia. If the Europeans don’t buy anymore we can redirect.” And then there’s the Arctic LNG 2 – which is larger than Yamal: “the first phase should be finished soon, it’s 80% ready.” An extra problem may be posed by the Russian “Unfriendlies” in Asia: Japan and South Korea. LNG infrastructure produced in Russia still depends on foreign technologies.
That’s what leads Gromov to note that, “the model of mobilization- based economy is not so good.” But that’s what Russia needs to deal with at least in the short to medium term.
The positives are that the new paradigm will allow “more cooperation within the BRICS”; the expansion of the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC); and more interaction and integration with “Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and Iran”.
Only in terms of Iran and Russia, swaps in the Caspian are already in the works, as Iran produces more than it needs, and is set to increase cooperation with Russia in the frxwork of the strenghtened strategic partnership.

至于亚马尔管道（注：通往欧洲的管道），“大部分天然气都输往亚洲。如果欧洲人不再购买，我们可以改变方向。”还有北极液化天然气2号（ the Arctic LNG 2）比亚马尔更大：“第一阶段很快就会完成，进度已经80%了。“俄罗斯在亚洲的“不友好国家”日本和韩国——可能会带来一个额外的问题。俄罗斯的液化天然气基础设施仍然依赖于外国技术。
这使得格罗莫夫注意到，“以调动为基础的经济模式并不是很好。”但这是俄罗斯至少在中短期内需要解决的问题。
积极的一面是，新模式将允许“金砖国家内部开展更多合作”;国际南北交通走廊(INSTC)的扩建；与“巴基斯坦、印度、阿富汗和伊朗”更多的互动和融合。
只有在伊朗和俄罗斯方面，里海的交易已经在进行中，因为伊朗的产量超出了需求，并将在加强战略伙伴关系的框架内加强与俄罗斯的合作。

Hypersonic geoeconomics
It was up to Chinese energy expert Fu Chengyu to offer a concise explanation of why the EU drive of replacing Russian gas with American LNG is, well, a pipe dream. Essentially the US offer is “too limited and too costly”.
Fu Chengyu showed how a lengthy, tricky process depends on four contracts: between the gas developer and the LNG company; between the LNG company and the buyer company; between the LNG buyer and the cargo company (which builds vessels); and between the buyer and the end user.
“Each contract”, he pointed out, “takes a long time to finish. Without all these signed contracts no party will invest – be it investment on infrastructure or gas field development.” So actual delivery of American LNG to Europe assumes all these interconnected resources are available – and moving like clockwork.
Fu Chengyu’s verdict is stark: this EU obsession on ditching Russian gas will provoke “an impact on global economic growth, and recession. They are pushing their own people – and the world. In the energy sector, we will all be harmed.”

高超音速地缘经济
中国能源专家傅成玉（音译）给出了一个简明的解释:为什么欧盟用美国液化天然气取代俄罗斯天然气的努力是一个白日梦?从本质上说，美国的出价“太有限，也太昂贵”。 傅成玉展示了一个如何依赖于四份合同的、漫长而棘手的过程:天然气开发商与液化天然气公司之间的合同;液化天然气公司与买方公司之间; 液化天然气买方和货运公司(造船公司)之间;在买家和最终用户之间。
他指出:“每一份合同都需要很长时间才能完成。”如果没有签署所有这些合同，任何一方都不会进行投资——无论是基础设施投资还是气田开发投资。” 因此，美国向欧洲输送液化天然气的实际情况是假设所有这些相互关联的资源都是可用的，并且像钟表一样运转。
傅成玉的结论很明确:欧盟对放弃俄罗斯天然气的执着将引发“对全球经济增长和衰退的影响。他们在推动自己的人民，以及整个世界。在能源领域，我们都将受到伤害。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

It was quite enlightening to juxtapose the coming geoeconomic turbulence – the EU obsession in bypassing Russian gas and the onset of Rublegas – with the real reasons behind Operation Z in Ukraine, completely obscured by Western media psyops.
So I submitted a few questions to a US Deep State old pro, now retired, and quite familiar with the inner workings of the old OSS, the CIA precursor, all the way to the neocon dementia.
His answers were quite sobering. He started by pointing out, “the whole Ukraine issue is over hypersonic missiles that can reach Moscow in less than four minutes. The US wants them there, in Poland, Romania, Baltic States, Sweden, Finland. This is in direct violation of the agreements in 1991 that NATO will not expand in Eastern Europe. The US does not have hypersonic missiles now but should – in a year or two. This is an existential threat to Russia. So they had to go into the Ukraine to stop this. Next will be Poland and Romania where launchers have been built in Romania and are being built in Poland.”

将即将到来的地缘经济动荡放在一起比较，很有启发性：
欧盟对绕过俄罗斯天然气的执迷和卢布天然气事件的爆发；乌克兰境内Z行动背后的真正原因，完全被西方媒体的心理战所掩盖。
于是，我向一位美国深州的老专家提了几个问题。这位老专家现在已经退休，他对中情局前身、老战略情报局的内部运作非常熟悉。
他的回答相当发人深省。他首先指出，“整个乌克兰问题都是关于高超音速导弹的，这种导弹可以在不到四分钟的时间内到达莫斯科。”美国希望它们部署在波兰，罗马尼亚，波罗的海国家，瑞典，芬兰。这直接违反了1991年达成的北约不会在东欧扩张的协议。美国现在还没有高超音速导弹，但一两年内应该会有。这对俄罗斯的生存构成了威胁。所以他们不得不进入乌克兰阻止这一切。接下来将是波兰和罗马尼亚，这些国家已经在罗马尼亚建造了发射装置，目前正在波兰建造。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

From a completely different geopolitical perspective, what’s really telling is that his analysis happens to dovetail with Zoltan Poszar’s geoeconomics: “The US and NATO are totally belligerent. This presents a real danger to Russia. The idea that nuclear war is unthinkable is a myth. If you look at the firebombing of Tokyo against Hiroshima and Nagasaki, more people died in Tokyo than Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These cities were rebuilt. The radiation goes away and life can restart. The difference between firebombing and nuclear bombing is only efficiency. NATO provocations are so extreme Russia had to place their nuclear missiles on standby alx. This is a gravely serious matter. But the US ignored it.”

从一个完全不同的地缘政治角度来看，真正能说明问题的是，他的分析恰好与佐尔坦·波斯扎尔的地缘经济学相吻合:“美国和北约完全是好战的。这对俄罗斯构成了真正的危险。认为核战争是不可想象的想法是一个神话。相比于广岛和长崎，如果你看看对东京投下的燃烧弹就会知道，东京的死亡人数比广岛和长崎的还要多。这些城市被重建，辐射消失，生命可以重新开始。燃烧弹和核弹之间的区别只是效率。北约的挑衅如此极端，俄罗斯不得不将其核导弹置于待命状态。这是一个非常严重的问题。但美国对此置之不理。”
（完）