脱欧让英国达成了自残的黄金标准
2022-06-14 jiangye111 12624
正文翻译
With Brexit, the UK has achieved the gold standard of self-harm
-As with another self-inflicted economic injury in the 1920s, Britain is struggling under a burden that could be reversed

脱欧让英国达成了自残的黄金标准
——就像20世纪20年代另一次自己造成的经济伤害一样,英国正在一个本可以逆转的负担下苦苦挣扎


(Winston Churchill regretted putting Britain back on the gold standard in 1925 – but it was reversible, as Brexit is.)

(温斯顿·丘吉尔后悔在1925年让英国回归金本位——但那是可逆的,就像英国脱欧一样。)
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In my last column I suggested that Brexit is the biggest act of self-harm inflicted on the British economy since the return to the gold standard in 1925. Even arch-Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg has recently admitted that implementing the next stage of the bureaucracy associated with Brexit would be an “act of self-harm”. I did not make that up.

我在上一篇专栏文章中指出,英国脱欧是自1925年回归金本位以来,英国经济遭受的最大的自残行为。就连英国脱欧的坚定支持者雅各布·里斯-莫格最近也承认,实施与英国脱欧相关的下一阶段官僚制度将是一种“自残行为”。这不是我瞎编的。

As minister for Brexit opportunities he has the sisyphean task of searching for such opportunities. One of the few he is reported to have come up with is the chance to abandon EU rules on the manufacture of vacuum cleaners, thereby making them more powerful and less environmentally friendly. I am not making that up either.

作为负责英国脱欧机会的大臣,他的任务是寻找这样的机会。据报道,他提出的为数不多的建议之一是放弃欧盟关于吸尘器制造的规定,从而使它们更强劲、更不环保。这也不是我瞎编的。

Why is the cartoonists’ favourite Lord Snooty character having such problems? The answer is staring him and British business in the face: Brexit is proving an unmitigated disaster and having a seriously dexerious impact on the economy. It is aggravating the inflation problem and having such a drastic impact on output, and hence living standards, that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasts the UK will next year be the worst-performing economy in the G20 apart from, er, Russia.

为什么漫画家最喜欢的“傲慢勋爵”角色会有这样的问题?答案就摆在他和英国企业面前:事实证明,英国脱欧是一场不折不扣的灾难,并对英国经济产生了严重的有害影响。经济合作与发展组织预测,英国明年将成为20国集团中除俄罗斯之外表现最差的经济体,这加剧了通胀问题,并对产出和生活水平产生了巨大影响。
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Our dreadful prime minister – still in place at the time of writing – talks of growth and investment. But the truth is that investment has collapsed under Brexit, a development that is hardly a signal for growth.

我们糟糕的首相——在撰写本文时仍在位——谈到了增长和投资。但事实是,在英国脱欧期间,投资大幅减少,这很难说是经济增长的信号。

As the saying goes, “those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad”. When the Conservative chairman of the Commons defence committee, Tobias Ellwood, recently pointed out that the answer to repairing the economic damage the UK has inflicted on itself, as well as to the otherwise intractable problem of the Northern Ireland protocol, would be to rejoin the single market, he was howled down by his fellow Tory MPs. And the Labour party is being utterly craven in refusing to address the Brexit issue head on.

俗话说:“上帝要其灭亡,必先使之疯狂”。英国下议院国防委员会主席、保守党议员托拜厄斯·埃尔伍德最近指出,要修复英国给自己造成的经济损害,以及解决《北爱尔兰协议》这个本来就很棘手的问题,答案是重新加入单一市场。而工党在拒绝正面解决英国脱欧问题上显得非常懦弱。

The Brexit brigade, and those who are scared of them, need to get into their heads something of which Lord (Charles) Powell, Margaret Thatcher’s closest adviser for many years, reminded his audience at a meeting last week of the Wimbledon Philosophical Society.

在上周温网哲学学会的一次会议上,玛格丽特·撒切尔多年来最亲密的顾问(查尔斯·)鲍威尔勋爵提醒他的听众,英国脱欧派以及那些害怕脱欧派的人需要让他们明白一些事情。
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He said that at no stage, despite all her frustrations with the EU and her many battles (which she won!) did Thatcher ever want to leave the EU. Unfortunately, her soi-disant Eurosceptic disciples misunderstood or misrepresented her opposition to the centripetal tendencies of the EU. They were too naive to appreciate that, after a combination of the work of Thatcher herself, and prime ministers John Major and Gordon Brown (especially when the latter was chancellor) the UK enjoyed, in the words of George Soros, “the best of both worlds” in its membership of the EU.

他说,尽管撒切尔对欧盟感到失望,尽管她打了很多仗(她赢了!),但她从来没有想过要离开欧盟。不幸的是,她那些冷漠的疑欧派信徒误解或歪曲了她对欧盟向心力倾向的反对。他们太天真了,没有意识到,在撒切尔本人、约翰·梅杰和戈登·布朗两位首相(尤其是后者担任财政大臣时)的共同努力之后,英国在欧盟成员国身份中享受到了“两全的好处”——用乔治·索罗斯的话来说。
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Unfortunately, the Brexiters managed, with a fair degree of chicanery, to deceive a narrow majority of those who voted in that fateful referendum to opt to leave.

不幸的是,脱欧派成功地用相当程度的欺骗手段,欺骗了在那场决定命运的公投中投票选择脱欧的微弱多数选民。

Now, back to the return to the gold standard in 1925. The economic significance of that was that it involved a gross overvaluation of the pound and had a drastic impact on our exports and output, thereby aggravating the unemployment crisis of the 1920s. It was a decision Winston Churchill, Tory chancellor in 1925, regretted for the rest of his life. However, it did no good for the fortunes of Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour government of 1929-31.

现在,回到1925年回归金本位。它的经济意义在于,它涉及到英镑的总体高估,并对我们的出口和产出产生了巨大的影响,从而加剧了20世纪20年代的失业危机。1925年,英国保守党首相温斯顿·丘吉尔为这个决定后悔了一辈子。然而,这对拉姆齐·麦克唐纳领导的工党政府1929年至1931年的执政没有任何好处。

But, but, but … it was reversible. Events in the foreign exchange market forced the UK off the gold standard in 1931, under what was by then the National Government. The Labour politician Sidney Webb famously declared afterwards: “Nobody told us we could do that.”

但是,但是,但是……它是可逆的。1931年,在当时的国民政府的领导下,外汇市场发生的事件迫使英国退出了金本位。工党政治家西德尼·韦布后来发表了著名的声明:“没人告诉我们可以这么做。”

Brexit, too, is reversible. It is no good Lord Mandelson advising the Labour party that its effects can be “mitigated”; or believing that Labour, if elected, can “make Brexit work”. Brexit isn’t working, and it is not obvious that it can ever work.

英国脱欧也是可逆的。曼德尔森勋爵建议工党脱欧的影响可以“减轻”,这是毫无助益的;或者相信如果工党当选,可以“让英国脱欧发挥作用”。但英国脱欧没有起作用,而且它是否能起作用也不明显。

Commentators keep asking: what is Labour’s plan? Well, I can offer a plan: Labour should take the ball and run towards an open goal. It should be highlighting every day the damage that Brexit is inflicting on this benighted country, and the reasons why: the Brexit Conservatives! (This damage is manifested in, among other things, the recent fall of the pound. There is a difference between the damaging effects of an overvaluation of a currency, a la 1925, and a plunge like the current one, which makes the nation poorer.)

评论家们一直在问:工党的计划是什么?好吧,我可以提供一个计划:工党应该带着球向空门跑去。它应该每天都强调英国脱欧给这个愚昧的国家造成的损害,以及原因:推动英国脱欧的保守党!(这种损害体现在最近英镑的贬值等方面。像1925年那样的货币高估的破坏性影响和像现在这样的暴跌是不同的,后者会让国家变得更穷。)

Labour’s approach to Brexit seems to be, in Suetonius’s words, to “hasten slowly” (“festina lente”) towards a rapprochement with the EU. In my opinion it should hasten fast, while Johnson’s reputation, like the bankrupt in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, goes broke “two ways: gradually, then suddenly”.

用苏埃托尼乌斯的话说,工党在脱欧问题上的做法似乎是“慢慢加快”(“festina lente”)与欧盟恢复友好关系。在我看来,它应该加快,而约翰逊的名声,就像海明威的《太阳照样升起》中破产的人一样,“有两种方式:逐渐破产,或者突然破产”。

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评论翻译
thecraftybee1981
Britain’s economy has exceeded its pre-pandemic size by 0.7%. The same cannot be said of the other big EU countries, with France just reaching that level, Germany 1% behind; Italy 0.4% behind and Spain 3.4% behind. The Eurozone as a whole is closer to the UK’s growth vs 2019 highs, having grown beyond it by 0.5%, but that performance still trails the U.K.’s 0.7%. The author mentions that Britain will have a bad year in 2023 with 0% growth forecast by the OECD, but if their forecasts are correct, even with no growth that year, the U.K. will still be proportionally bigger at 2023’s end than the other EU majors when compared to pre-pandemic, pre-Brexit times. He’s cherry picked a data-point that looks awful for the U.K. and failed to look at the big picture.
Towards the end of the piece he talks about the recent fall in the pound. However, that is not the case, the dollar has ballooned over the last year. The Euro has fallen slightly more than the pound over against the dollar in the last 12 months by 13.2% vs 12.7% for the pound. Compared to a year ago today (12th June), the pound is worth €1.17 now vs €1.165 back then - hardly any movement at all.
I’m not a fan of Brexit. Yes the country has shot itself in the foot imo, but we’ve lost a little toe, not the whole damn leg, like this article would have us believe. But the decision has been made and we have to get on with it: What the country definitely does not need is another 5+ years of fighting over the subject, as this author would have it.

英国的经济规模已超过疫情前0.7%。但其他的欧盟大国就不一样了,法国刚刚达到这个水平;德国落后1%;意大利落后0.4%;西班牙落后3.4%。与2019年的高点相比,欧元区整体增长更接近英国,增长超过2019年的0.5%,但这一表现仍落后于英国的0.7%。作者提到,经济合作与发展组织预测的2023年英国将是糟糕的一年,经济增长为0%,但如果他们的预测是正确的,即使那一年没有增长,与大流行前、脱欧前的时代相比,英国在2023年底仍将比其他欧盟主要国家更大。他精心挑选了一个对英国来说很糟糕的数据点,但没有着眼于大局。
在文章的最后,他谈到了最近英镑的下跌。然而,事实并非如此,美元在过去一年里大幅升值。在过去的12个月里,欧元兑美元的跌幅略高于英镑兑美元的跌幅,分别为13.2%和12.7%。与一年前的今天(6月12日)相比,英镑现在值1.17欧元,而当时值1.165欧元——几乎没有任何变化。
我不支持英国脱欧。是的,我认为这个国家是在搬起石头砸自己的脚,但我们只是少了一点脚趾,而不是整条腿——就像这篇文章想让我们相信的那样。但我们已经做出了决定,我们必须继续下去:这个国家绝对不需要在这个问题上再搞5年以上的内斗,就像作者说的那样。

DinnerWiener
and all that thanks to increasing debt from 1.8 trillion in 2019 to 2.4 trillion in 2021
Do you think that 0.7% GDP growth will be enough to cover this?

这一切都要归功于债务从2019年的1.8万亿美元增加到2021年的2.4万亿美元
你认为0.7%的GDP增长足以覆盖这个数字吗?

thecraftybee1981
Government debt has gone up considerably since 2019 to combat COVID across all countries. Would you like to share how much the debt burden has gone up for the other EU majors in the same period too?

自2019年以来,各国政府债务大幅增加,以抗击新冠肺炎。你愿意分享一下同期其他欧盟主要国家的债务负担增加了多少吗?

OfftopiaGermany
Brexit will be an ongoing political crisis that won't go away for the next decades

英国脱欧将是一场持续的政治危机,在未来几十年都不会消失

voyagerdogeEurope
Although it gets boring, it's good practice to mention this in the papers each and every day. At some point, the UK might want to hold the responsible politicians to account.

虽然这很无聊,但每天在报纸上提到这一点是很好的练习。在某种程度上,英国可能希望追究负责任的政客的责任。
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Oerthling
Why did Brexit happen? Because those who wanted it didn't accept the status quo and fought for change.
Yes. Brexit happened. But fighting over it now is not about changing the past but improving the future.
I can understand if you're tired of it, of course.

为什么会发生英国脱欧?因为那些想要改变的人不接受现状,并为改变而奋斗。
是的。脱欧发生了。但现在为之奋斗不是为了改变过去,而是为了改善未来。
当然,如果你厌倦了,我也能理解。

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MegaDeth6666Romania
Many of the pro Brexit voters aren't even alive today. Many of the people who would have voted against Brexit were not of voting age at the time.
The vote for Brexit hinges on the opinions of dead pensioners, and is also predicated on not counting the options of an entire generation.
It would be moronic to let it slide, which is what UK is doing. Encouraged mostly by agent provocateurs like you, drumming constantly in opinion pieces/social media posts to "Let it go".

许多当时支持脱欧的选民今天甚至已经不在了。而许多会投票反对英国脱欧的人当时还没有达到投票年龄。
脱欧公投取决于已故退休人员的意见,也基于不考虑整整一代人的选择。
如果听之任之,那就太傻了,但英国正是这么做的。主要就是受到像你这样的代理破坏分子的怂恿,不断在评论文章/社交媒体帖子上鼓吹“随它去吧”。

spectralcolors12United States of America
Great analysis. As an outsider, I admire the EU and think Brexit was a bad choice. With that being said, Norway is one of the wealthiest countries in Europe and is not a part of the EU. Even without their natural resources, I assume they would still be quite rich.
The UK will continue to be a prosperous country for years to come, that much is obvious

精彩的分析。作为一个局外人,我钦佩欧盟,并认为英国脱欧是一个糟糕的选择。尽管如此,挪威是欧洲最富有的国家之一,而且不是欧盟的一部分。即使没有自然资源,我认为他们仍然很富有。
英国在未来几年仍将是一个繁荣的国家,这是显而易见的

LFTMRE
Europeans: Britain is terrible and I'm glad they left the EU. Also Europeans: Here's another reason why Britain was stupid to leave the EU.
It's like having a toxic ex who says she hates you and doesn't even care if you left, but keeps going on about how shitty your new girlfriend is and why you were better off with her.
I'd have preferred it if Brexit didn't happen, but it did, get over it and let us go.

欧洲人:英国很糟糕,我很高兴他们离开了欧盟。还是欧洲人:这是英国会愚蠢地退出欧盟的另一个原因。
这就像有一个恶劣的前任,她说她讨厌你,甚至不在乎你是否离开了,但又一直说你的新女友有多糟糕,为什么你和自己在一起会更好。
我希望脱欧没有发生,但它已经发生了,接受它吧,继续前进。

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hydrocharisBelgium
The British are Europeans too. Or at least the UK is still in Europe. You will always have us as neighbors to deal with and our trade and relationships will always be relevant and quite impossible to entirely replace with the shadow of an empire.
And, well, I really think many of mainland Europeans would love a tighter relationship with the UK again but are not deeply invested into Brexit issues anymore at this point and not the 'toxic girlfriend' you describe. It's just that this sub has long been consumed by Brexit propaganda wars, since all the British brigading there is also backlash to that, I wouldn't take this sub as a measure for reality. I also don't think most Brits aren't so toxic about it like reddit would make you believe.

英国人也是欧洲人。或者至少英国还在欧洲。你们将永远与我们为邻,我们的贸易和关系将永远相关,完全不可能用一个帝国的影子来取代。
而且,我真的认为许多欧洲大陆人会喜欢与英国再次建立更紧密的关系,但在这一点上,他们不会再深入投资于脱欧问题,也不会像你描述的那样“恶劣的女友”。只是这个主题已经被英国脱欧的宣传战消耗了很长时间,因为所有的英国网军也对此产生了反弹,我不会把这个主题作为现实的衡量标准。我也不认为大多数英国人不像红迪网让你相信的那样对此恶劣。

Tricky-Astronaut
Before Brexit, the UK was expected to overtake Germany by 2050. Today, nobody believes that...

在英国脱欧之前,英国有望在2050年超过德国。今天,没有人相信了……

thecraftybee1981
In 2016 before the Brexit referendum, some organisations like Goldman Sachs and the OECD believed Britain would slightly overtake Germany by 2050, but others like PWC and the Economist Intelligence Unit did not, so I imagine that it was a close run thing.
The most realistic forecasts for Brexit, in my mind was that it would knock a 3-4% points over longer term growth which would be enough to knock us clearly behind Germany so far into the future. I think that will still be the case.
The IMF predictions from earlier this year don’t go up to 2050, but only up to 2027. They predict that the British economy will go from being 25% smaller than Germany and 5% bigger than France in 2019, to 15% smaller than Germany and 25% bigger than France by 2027. Gaining 10% points on Germany over 8 years immediately following Brexit stands it in good stead to make up the final 15% points over the remaining 23 years up until 2050 to be somewhat closer to them.
If that’s anywhere near true, than in my mind that is what I would call shooting ourselves in the foot and losing a small toe, and not a leg.

在英国脱欧公投之前的2016年,高盛和经合组织等一些机构认为,英国将在2050年略微超过德国,但普华永道和经济学人智库等机构不这么认为,所以我认为这是一种正反观点相当的预测。
在我看来,对英国脱欧最现实的预测是,英国的长期经济增长率将下降3-4%,这足以让我们在未来很长一段时间内明显落后于德国。我认为情况仍将如此。
国际货币基金组织今年早些时候的预测不会到2050年,而只会到2027年。他们预测,英国经济规模将从2019年比德国小25%,比法国大5%,上升到2027年比德国小15%,比法国大25%。在英国脱欧后的8年时间里,英国对德国的经济规模之比立即上升了10%,这有利于它在2050年之前的剩余23年里弥补最后15%的差距,从而在一定程度上接近德国。
如果这是真的,那么在我看来,脱欧就是搬起石头砸自己的脚,但只失去一个小脚趾,而不是一整条腿。

CornusControversa
IMO the public aren’t educated enough to vote about trade agreements, this is why we vote for elected representatives within a democratic system.

在我看来,公众没有接受足够的教育来投票支持贸易协定,这就是为什么我们在民主制度下投票选举代表(实行代议制)。

gundog48
If they're not educated enough to vote about trade agreements, are they educated enough to make an informed decision when voting for elected representitives? What if the representitives are able to lie without concequence? Are the elected representitives educated enough to conduct a trade agreement?
I see your point, but I really don't like the precedent it sets, nor the implied difference between the voters and 'ruling class'. Really, there's nothing stopping the same 'ill-educated' voter from becoming an MP, by making the same promises that they would like to hear, regardless of whether they are possible.
The public wasn't asked to vote on a trade agreement. They were asked whether they thought that the UK should stay in the EU. It made no mention about trade agreements.
You could argue that our current arrangement is because we left the trade agreement to elected representatives. It was they who took a slim vote to leave the EU, claimed it as a mandate for their entirely manufactured 'red lines' which put them in a corner, and led to the hard Brexit we've ended up with.
There may have been a slim majority in favor of leaving the EU, far fewer people would have voted to leave the Single Market, and even fewer would have voted for our current deal. That was brought to us by the educated elected representatives in government, not the popular vote.

如果他们的受教育程度不足以投票支持贸易协定,那么他们的受教育程度是否足以在投票选举代表时做出明智的决定?如果代表们可以毫不负责地撒谎呢?选举产生的代表是否受过足够的教育,能够执行一项贸易协定?
我明白你的观点,但我真的不喜欢它开创的先例,也不喜欢选民和“统治阶级”之间隐含的区别。事实上,没有什么能阻止同样的“教育程度低”的选民成为国会议员,只要他们做出他们想听到的同样的承诺,而不管他们是否可能做到。
公众没有被要求就贸易协定进行投票。他们被问及的是是否认为英国应该留在欧盟。它没有提及贸易协定。
你可能会说,我们目前的安排是因为我们把贸易协定留给了民选代表。正是他们以微弱优势投票决定离开欧盟,并声称这是一条完全由他们自己制造出来的“红线”的授权——这让他们陷入了困境,导致了我们最终的硬脱欧。
支持脱欧的人可能会占微弱多数,但投票离开单一市场的人可能会少得多,投票支持我们当前协议的人会更少。这是政府中那些受过教育的民选代表们给我们带来的,而不是公投的结果。

JosquiusEuropean, British, Bernician
It's not about educated and uneducated. It's about educated in what.
I have a masters in my field from a top uni. I'm really pretty damn educated....
But when I got an extension built on my house all I did was help dig the foundations and carry heavy obxts. The actual brick laying, electrics, etc...i hired people who were very educated in those things and had a clue what they were doing.
You might be the best doctor or mechanic or whatever in the land. But MPs have teams of people who all dedicate their career to understanding the ins and outs and all the fine print of laws and trade agreements and all that sort of thing. Nobody can master everything, there just aren't enough hours in the day.
It's basically civilization 101- you do what you're good at, and vote for someone whose broad views align with yours to do the politics.

这不是受教育和未受教育的问题。这是关于如何接受教育的问题。
我从一所顶尖大学获得了这个领域的硕士学位。我的教育程度真的很高……
但当我的房子要扩建时,我所做的一切就是帮忙挖地基和搬运重物。实际的砖砌、水电工等等……我雇佣的人在这些方面受过良好的教育,对自己在做什么有一定的了解。
你可能是这个地方最好的医生或机械师之类的。但是国会议员们有自己的团队,他们的工作都是为了了解法律和贸易协定的细节和所有这类事情。没有人能掌握所有的事情,没那么多时间和精力。
这就是基本的文明101——你做你擅长的事情,投票给一个观点与你一致的人来搞政治。

Vethae
Not really. This is pretty everyday self harm. There are easily half a dozen countries in Europe reaching greater heights of self harm right now than we are. And by the standards of global history, we’re doing very well.
Brexit wasn’t good, sure. But we’re still here. Most of the problems we’re facing right now are unrelated to Brexit - everyone is dealing with the same issues. The Guardian has always encouraged a very nihilistic attitude to Britain and that’s visible here.

不完全是这样。这只能算日常自残。欧洲有6个国家的自残程度比我们还高。以全球历史的标准来看,我们已经做得很好了。
当然,英国脱欧并不好。但我们还在这里。我们现在面临的大多数问题都与英国脱欧无关——每个人都在处理同样的问题。《卫报》一直鼓励人们对英国持一种虚无主义的态度,这一点在这里很明显。

lucialuccianna
Can always rejoin in a few years when it becomes clearer the East Euro wars are destabilizing all and climate change starts ramping up. Common ground concerns for survival

几年后,当东欧战争正在破坏所有人的稳定,气候变化开始加剧时,我们总能重新加入欧盟的。出自对生存的共同关切

HodossFrance
As an EU citizen I oppose that. The UK has been a begrudging member, regularly threatening to leave to extract privileges. Arguably Brexit was one last such scheme that backfired. I’m happy we’re done with this headache. As for crises, we have other collaboration frxworks.

作为一名欧盟公民,我反对。英国一直是一个不情愿的成员国,经常威胁要离开以榨取特权。可以说,英国脱欧是最后一个事与愿违的计划。我很高兴我们不用再头疼了。至于你说的那些危机,我们有其他的合作框架。

PoiHolloi2020United Kingdom
As an EU citizen I oppose that.
Fortunately that's irrelevant unless you happen to be EU president in a few years (or decades) time :3

“作为一名欧盟公民,我反对”
幸运的是,你的反对无关紧要,除非你恰好在几年后(或几十年后)成了欧盟主席 :3

HodossFrance
It’s a common opinion, and the UK would need a Yes vote from every member country.
Its accession had already been vetoed twice the first time around on the basis that it was incompatible, and arguably that point was proven by its rocky membership and ultimate Brexit.
What about the Euro and Schengen? If the UK wants opt-outs again, it furthers the point that the UK is simply not made to be part of this.
There are other, less constraining association solutions for the UK.

这是一个普遍的观点,英国需要每个成员国都投赞成票。
在第一次加入欧盟时,它已经两次被否决了,理由是它不合群,可以说,这一点已被其艰难的成员国身份和最终的英国脱欧所证明了。
欧元和申根呢?如果英国想再次退出欧盟,这会进一步表明,英国根本就不是欧盟的一部分。
对于英国,还有其他约束性较小的关联解决方案。

sionnachIreland
The UK would not be welcomed back with open arms. They’ve been troublemakers for a long time, and it would require every country in the EU to agree, with I can’t see happening.
Basically, de Gaulle was right all along.

但英国不会受到热烈欢迎的。他们长期以来一直是搅屎棍,并且重新加入需要欧盟的每个国家都同意——我不认为这会发生。
基本上,戴高乐一直都是对的。

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