网友讨论：电动汽车达到了一个全球临界点，现在超过52% 的购车者有计划购买电动汽车
正文翻译
In a global tipping point, 52% of car buyers now want to purchase an EV – here’s why
Michelle Lewis
- May. 27th 2022
电动汽车达到了一个全球临界点，现在超过52% 的购车者有计划购买电动汽车——这是什么导致的
米歇尔·刘易斯
2022 年 5 月 27 日
In a global tipping point, 52% of car buyers now want to purchase an EV – here’s why
Michelle Lewis
- May. 27th 2022
电动汽车达到了一个全球临界点，现在超过52% 的购车者有计划购买电动汽车——这是什么导致的
米歇尔·刘易斯
2022 年 5 月 27 日
The number of consumers looking to buy electric vehicles has hit 52%, according to the latest EY Mobility Consumer Index (MCI). This is the first time the number has exceeded 50%, and it represents a rise of 22 percentage points in just two years.
根据最新的安永移动消费者指数调查(MCI)，希望购买电动汽车的消费者数量已达到 52%。这是该数字首次超过50%，在短短两年内上升了22个百分点。
根据最新的安永移动消费者指数调查(MCI)，希望购买电动汽车的消费者数量已达到 52%。这是该数字首次超过50%，在短短两年内上升了22个百分点。
EV buyers are on the rise
电动汽车买家正在增加
电动汽车买家正在增加
The MCI survey has tracked consumer mobility patterns and buying intentions since the start of the pandemic in 2020. EY writes:
While overall levels of travel reported remain lower when compared to the pre-pandemic benchmark, the number of consumers who say constant access to a personal car is very important to them is rising, and for the first time more than half of those surveyed, 52%, who intend to buy a car say they intend to choose either a fully electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid vehicle.
自 2020 年大流行开始以来，MCI 调查一直在追踪消费者的流动模式和购买意愿。安永写道：
虽然与大流行前的基准相比，报告的总体（驾车）旅行水平仍然较低，但表示经常使用私家车对他们来说非常重要的消费者数量正在上升，并且首次有超过一半打算购买汽车的的受访者，确切地说是52 %，表示他们打算选择全电动、插电式混合动力或是混合动力的汽车。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
While overall levels of travel reported remain lower when compared to the pre-pandemic benchmark, the number of consumers who say constant access to a personal car is very important to them is rising, and for the first time more than half of those surveyed, 52%, who intend to buy a car say they intend to choose either a fully electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid vehicle.
自 2020 年大流行开始以来，MCI 调查一直在追踪消费者的流动模式和购买意愿。安永写道：
虽然与大流行前的基准相比，报告的总体（驾车）旅行水平仍然较低，但表示经常使用私家车对他们来说非常重要的消费者数量正在上升，并且首次有超过一半打算购买汽车的的受访者，确切地说是52 %，表示他们打算选择全电动、插电式混合动力或是混合动力的汽车。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
001
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Environmental concerns are cited as the main reason for respondents to buy an EV (38%), and rising penalties on gas vehicles appeared for the first time as a key concern (34%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruption is impacting the latter concern.
The survey also shows that 88% of consumers are willing to pay more for an EV, and 35% are willing to pay a premium of 20% or more, in keeping with the MCI 2021 survey’s findings.
在对 18 个国家的 13,000 人进行的一项调查中，意大利 (73%)、中国 (69%) 和韩国 (63%) 的购车者最愿意购买电动汽车。澳大利亚 (38%) 和美国 (29%) 的消费者比例最低。
环境问题被认为是受访者购买电动汽车的主要原因（38%），而对燃油车来说惩罚性的油价上涨首次成为主要问题（34%）。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和供应链中断正在成为影响后者的担忧。
调查还显示，与 MCI 2021 调查的结果一致，88% 的消费者愿意为电动汽车支付更多费用，其中35% 的消费者愿意支付 20% 或更高的溢价。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Environmental concerns are cited as the main reason for respondents to buy an EV (38%), and rising penalties on gas vehicles appeared for the first time as a key concern (34%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruption is impacting the latter concern.
The survey also shows that 88% of consumers are willing to pay more for an EV, and 35% are willing to pay a premium of 20% or more, in keeping with the MCI 2021 survey’s findings.
在对 18 个国家的 13,000 人进行的一项调查中，意大利 (73%)、中国 (69%) 和韩国 (63%) 的购车者最愿意购买电动汽车。澳大利亚 (38%) 和美国 (29%) 的消费者比例最低。
环境问题被认为是受访者购买电动汽车的主要原因（38%），而对燃油车来说惩罚性的油价上涨首次成为主要问题（34%）。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和供应链中断正在成为影响后者的担忧。
调查还显示，与 MCI 2021 调查的结果一致，88% 的消费者愿意为电动汽车支付更多费用，其中35% 的消费者愿意支付 20% 或更高的溢价。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Range anxiety is dropping
里程焦虑正在下降
里程焦虑正在下降
The MCI survey also shows that EV owners are less worried about range anxiety or EV chargers. The top motivator for second-time EV buyers is that “EVs now have longer ranges,” and just 27% of EV owners were concerned about charging infrastructure, compared to 36% of those currently without an EV.
Randy Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader says:The old issues of worrying about charging infrastructure and the range of EVs will soon come to an end. We know that the vast majority of journeys are relatively short, and as charging infrastructure continues to grow and battery quality continues to increase, we will start to see these concerns fade. It is also clear that those who own EVs know this already.
MCI 调查还显示，电动汽车车主现在不太担心里程或电动汽车充电装置了。第二次购买电动汽车的最大动力是“电动汽车现在有更长的续航里程”，只有 27% 的电动汽车车主担心充电基础设施，而目前还没有电动汽车的车主中这一比例为 36%。
安永全球先进制造和移动业务负责人兰迪·米勒说：担心充电基础设施和电动汽车行驶里程的老问题很快就会结束。我们知道，绝大多数（电动汽车）行程都相对较短，随着充电基础设施的不断发展和电池质量的不断提高，我们将开始看到这些担忧消退。同样清楚的是，拥有电动汽车的人已经知道这一点。
Randy Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader says:The old issues of worrying about charging infrastructure and the range of EVs will soon come to an end. We know that the vast majority of journeys are relatively short, and as charging infrastructure continues to grow and battery quality continues to increase, we will start to see these concerns fade. It is also clear that those who own EVs know this already.
MCI 调查还显示，电动汽车车主现在不太担心里程或电动汽车充电装置了。第二次购买电动汽车的最大动力是“电动汽车现在有更长的续航里程”，只有 27% 的电动汽车车主担心充电基础设施，而目前还没有电动汽车的车主中这一比例为 36%。
安永全球先进制造和移动业务负责人兰迪·米勒说：担心充电基础设施和电动汽车行驶里程的老问题很快就会结束。我们知道，绝大多数（电动汽车）行程都相对较短，随着充电基础设施的不断发展和电池质量的不断提高，我们将开始看到这些担忧消退。同样清楚的是，拥有电动汽车的人已经知道这一点。
评论翻译
LusoSpikes
Where I live the car tax is proportional do CO2 level emissions and the cc size of the motor. This results that combustion cars pay between 30% tax (when purchasing new) and >90% (for very pollution cars). BEVs do not pay this tax as it does not produce CO2 and has not a combustion motor. All cars pay VAT of 23%. For new BEV cars until 50k€ VAT can be deductible for companies and self employed professionals. Cars also pay a yearly tax based on a similar formula (about 80€ for a Smart ICE to more than 1000€ for a large polluting car). Here again it pay to have a BEV. Besides this, petrol and Diesel is at about 2€/litter.
And we have an very good EV charger network (unfortunately not as good as in Norway or Nederland). It just makes economical sense to buy BEV. There is a small subsidies for BEVs on top of this but it does not make a significant economic difference and it will finish at the end of 2022. The difference is a tax system based on pollution levels (as in some other European countries).
在我住的地方，汽车税与二氧化碳排放量和发动机容积的大小成正比。这导致燃烧汽车支付 30% 的税（购买新车时）和 >90%（非常污染的汽车）。电动汽车不需缴纳此项税，因为它不产生二氧化碳，也没有内燃机。所有汽车均需缴纳 23% 的增值税。对于新购买的电动汽车，公司和自雇人士的增值税可抵扣 50,000 欧元。汽车还根据类似的公式每年缴纳税款（Smart 小电动车约为 80 欧元，大型高排放汽车则超过 1000 欧元）。再次，拥有一辆电动汽车是值得的。除此之外，汽油和柴油的价格约为2 欧元/升。
而且我们有一个非常好的电动汽车充电器网络（不幸的是还是不如挪威或是荷兰）。购买电动汽车具有经济意义。除此之外，还有少量对电动车的补贴，但不会产生重大的经济差异，并将在 2022 年底结束。不同之处在于基于污染水平的税收制度（如在其他一些欧洲国家）。
Where I live the car tax is proportional do CO2 level emissions and the cc size of the motor. This results that combustion cars pay between 30% tax (when purchasing new) and >90% (for very pollution cars). BEVs do not pay this tax as it does not produce CO2 and has not a combustion motor. All cars pay VAT of 23%. For new BEV cars until 50k€ VAT can be deductible for companies and self employed professionals. Cars also pay a yearly tax based on a similar formula (about 80€ for a Smart ICE to more than 1000€ for a large polluting car). Here again it pay to have a BEV. Besides this, petrol and Diesel is at about 2€/litter.
And we have an very good EV charger network (unfortunately not as good as in Norway or Nederland). It just makes economical sense to buy BEV. There is a small subsidies for BEVs on top of this but it does not make a significant economic difference and it will finish at the end of 2022. The difference is a tax system based on pollution levels (as in some other European countries).
在我住的地方，汽车税与二氧化碳排放量和发动机容积的大小成正比。这导致燃烧汽车支付 30% 的税（购买新车时）和 >90%（非常污染的汽车）。电动汽车不需缴纳此项税，因为它不产生二氧化碳，也没有内燃机。所有汽车均需缴纳 23% 的增值税。对于新购买的电动汽车，公司和自雇人士的增值税可抵扣 50,000 欧元。汽车还根据类似的公式每年缴纳税款（Smart 小电动车约为 80 欧元，大型高排放汽车则超过 1000 欧元）。再次，拥有一辆电动汽车是值得的。除此之外，汽油和柴油的价格约为2 欧元/升。
而且我们有一个非常好的电动汽车充电器网络（不幸的是还是不如挪威或是荷兰）。购买电动汽车具有经济意义。除此之外，还有少量对电动车的补贴，但不会产生重大的经济差异，并将在 2022 年底结束。不同之处在于基于污染水平的税收制度（如在其他一些欧洲国家）。
Hitssquad
Until subsidies are removed.
直到补贴取消。
Until subsidies are removed.
直到补贴取消。
Mehneni
Norway is already starting to reduce subsidies:
https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/norway-rolls-back-ev-incentives-while-boosting-walking-and-cycling/ ... since the car market is almost completely electric. Their expectations on the result are somewhat different from yours. This will be the way for all of Europe at least.
挪威已经开始减少补贴 ......因为它的汽车市场正在几乎完全转向了电动汽车。他们对结果的期望与你的有所不同。至少这将是整个欧洲的道路。
Norway is already starting to reduce subsidies:
https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/norway-rolls-back-ev-incentives-while-boosting-walking-and-cycling/ ... since the car market is almost completely electric. Their expectations on the result are somewhat different from yours. This will be the way for all of Europe at least.
挪威已经开始减少补贴 ......因为它的汽车市场正在几乎完全转向了电动汽车。他们对结果的期望与你的有所不同。至少这将是整个欧洲的道路。
therealkanuk
One reason for a carbon tax to keep gas prices high.
征收碳税是油价得以保持高位的原因之一。
One reason for a carbon tax to keep gas prices high.
征收碳税是油价得以保持高位的原因之一。
SteveM therealkanuk
The problem with a carbon tax is that it's regressive and hurts the lower income folks the most who can't afford to live in the city where they work, so they buy cheaper housing in the outskirts/countryside and commute dozens of miles each day to make a living. Those are the same folks who can't afford the higher cost of an EV.
碳税的问题在于它是递减的，对负担不起在他们工作所在城市生活的低收入人群的伤害最大，因为他们在郊区或是乡村购买更便宜的住房，每天需要长距离通勤谋生。而这些人负担不起更高成本的电动汽车。
The problem with a carbon tax is that it's regressive and hurts the lower income folks the most who can't afford to live in the city where they work, so they buy cheaper housing in the outskirts/countryside and commute dozens of miles each day to make a living. Those are the same folks who can't afford the higher cost of an EV.
碳税的问题在于它是递减的，对负担不起在他们工作所在城市生活的低收入人群的伤害最大，因为他们在郊区或是乡村购买更便宜的住房，每天需要长距离通勤谋生。而这些人负担不起更高成本的电动汽车。
EVtruckin SteveM
In Canada, some portion of the carbon tax revenue is distributed to people who file their taxes on time.
在加拿大，部分碳税收入会返还给按时报税的人。
In Canada, some portion of the carbon tax revenue is distributed to people who file their taxes on time.
在加拿大，部分碳税收入会返还给按时报税的人。
R Langley EVtruckin
It still amazes me how few people understand that they get a portion of the carbon tax returned to them. (Canada)
令我惊讶的是，很少有人知道他们可以得到一部分碳税返还。（加拿大）
It still amazes me how few people understand that they get a portion of the carbon tax returned to them. (Canada)
令我惊讶的是，很少有人知道他们可以得到一部分碳税返还。（加拿大）
spec9 SteveM
This is why there needs to be small cheap 100 mile EVs in the USA. If you absolutely need a commuter vehicle then you should be able to get a 100 mile EV for ~ $20K. If you put 20% down ($4000) and finance it for 7 years, it is just over $225 per month which should be relatively affordable.
这就是为什么美国需要小型和便宜的 100 英里（约合160公里）里程的电动汽车。如果你绝对需要一辆通勤汽车，那么你应该能以 2 万美元左右的价格获得一辆 100 英里的电动汽车。如果你首付 20%（4000 美元）并为其做7年的融资分期计划，则每月只需支付225美元多一点，这应该是相对负担得起的。
This is why there needs to be small cheap 100 mile EVs in the USA. If you absolutely need a commuter vehicle then you should be able to get a 100 mile EV for ~ $20K. If you put 20% down ($4000) and finance it for 7 years, it is just over $225 per month which should be relatively affordable.
这就是为什么美国需要小型和便宜的 100 英里（约合160公里）里程的电动汽车。如果你绝对需要一辆通勤汽车，那么你应该能以 2 万美元左右的价格获得一辆 100 英里的电动汽车。如果你首付 20%（4000 美元）并为其做7年的融资分期计划，则每月只需支付225美元多一点，这应该是相对负担得起的。
Fiat500earl spec9
Those city EVs are even cheaper when bought used. I bought my used Fiat 500e for under $8k many years ago. Much of the problem is that people looking for a cheap car don't even know there are cheap used EVs. People still think EVs are expensive partly because all the ones they here about are new cutting edge EVs. Also right now most EVs are too expensive because of all the problems caused by the pandemic.
这些城市型电动汽车在购买时甚至更便宜。多年前，我以不到 8000 美元的价格购买了一辆二手的菲亚特500e电动汽车。大部分问题在于寻找便宜汽车的人甚至不知道有便宜的二手电动汽车。人们仍然认为电动汽车很贵，部分原因是他们在这里谈论的都是新的高端电动汽车。同样，由于大流行引起的所有问题，现在大多数这类电动汽车都太贵了。
Those city EVs are even cheaper when bought used. I bought my used Fiat 500e for under $8k many years ago. Much of the problem is that people looking for a cheap car don't even know there are cheap used EVs. People still think EVs are expensive partly because all the ones they here about are new cutting edge EVs. Also right now most EVs are too expensive because of all the problems caused by the pandemic.
这些城市型电动汽车在购买时甚至更便宜。多年前，我以不到 8000 美元的价格购买了一辆二手的菲亚特500e电动汽车。大部分问题在于寻找便宜汽车的人甚至不知道有便宜的二手电动汽车。人们仍然认为电动汽车很贵，部分原因是他们在这里谈论的都是新的高端电动汽车。同样，由于大流行引起的所有问题，现在大多数这类电动汽车都太贵了。
Joe Black SteveM
Anyway it will become a moot point over the next 2 and a half years. Price parity is coming.
无论如何，这将在未来两年半内成为一个有争议的问题。廉价（电动汽车）将到来。
Anyway it will become a moot point over the next 2 and a half years. Price parity is coming.
无论如何，这将在未来两年半内成为一个有争议的问题。廉价（电动汽车）将到来。
R Langley Greg N
As noted above the carbon tax in Canada is returned to taxpayers. I just looked it up and in Ontario "The carbon tax rebates in Ontario are $718 for a family of four. That works out to $360 for a single adult or first adult in a couple, with the second adult getting $180. For each child, you are entitled to $89." We own an EV and almost never use our ICE van...so we definitely come out ahead under this tax.
如上所述，加拿大的碳税退还给纳税人。我刚查了一下，在安大略省：“安大略省的碳税退税为四口之家 718 元。单身成人或夫妻中的第一个成人退税额为 360 元，第二个成年人的退税额为 180 元。对于每个孩子，你有权获得89元的退税。”我们拥有一辆电动汽车，几乎从不使用我们的燃油货车......所以我们在这项税收制度下肯定会更划算。
As noted above the carbon tax in Canada is returned to taxpayers. I just looked it up and in Ontario "The carbon tax rebates in Ontario are $718 for a family of four. That works out to $360 for a single adult or first adult in a couple, with the second adult getting $180. For each child, you are entitled to $89." We own an EV and almost never use our ICE van...so we definitely come out ahead under this tax.
如上所述，加拿大的碳税退还给纳税人。我刚查了一下，在安大略省：“安大略省的碳税退税为四口之家 718 元。单身成人或夫妻中的第一个成人退税额为 360 元，第二个成年人的退税额为 180 元。对于每个孩子，你有权获得89元的退税。”我们拥有一辆电动汽车，几乎从不使用我们的燃油货车......所以我们在这项税收制度下肯定会更划算。
peter904 SteveM
True, but ... it is more than just the carbon tax. Today every thing is more expensive, much more expensive. In so many (most) cases it takes two incomes to afford living in our modern world.
I believe gasoline/diesel fuel will only go up in price, especially when demand begins to wane with more EVs.
Perhaps EVs will encourage more efficient and better mass transit. No offense the Big Three have shaped the market for vehicles in the US for decades and have guided us away from smaller, more efficient vehicles to larger, more powerful trucks and SUVs. Often time the lower income families are forced to buy the least efficient, older vehicles and that adds to their problem. Remember the Soccer Mom? Once upon a time, her dream was to drive a mini van with a 4 cylinder engine, seating for 5. Now these Moms wouldn't be caught dead in a mini van and prefer those sexy, powerful, heavy SUV/CUVs. Sadly today, our BEVs are echoing the wasteful ways of the ICE(V) Age, by promoting speed and power instead of range and efficiency. Our wonderful Earth has a limited amount of minerals, clean water, and clean air. We have no Plan B.
没错，但是... 它不仅仅是碳税。今天一切都更贵，更贵。在许多（大多数）情况下，我们需要打两份工才能负担得起我们现代世界的生活。
我相信汽油/柴油燃料的价格只会上涨，尤其是当（对化石燃料的）需求随着更多电动汽车而开始减弱时。
也许电动汽车会鼓励更高效、更好的公共交通。几十年来，三巨头塑造了美国的汽车市场，并引诱着我们从更小、更高效的汽车转向更大、更庞大的皮卡和 SUV。低收入家庭经常被迫购买效率最低的旧车，这增加了他们的问题。还记得足球妈妈吗？曾几何时，她的梦想是开一辆可乘坐5人的配备4缸发动机的小车。现在这些妈妈不会被困在一辆小型车上，而是更喜欢那些性感、庞大、重型的SUV或者CUV。可悲的是，今天，我们的电动汽车正在呼应燃油汽车时代的浪费方式，通过提高速度和动力而不是里程和效率（来吸引消费者）。我们美妙的地球拥有有限的矿物质、清洁的水和清洁的空气。我们没有 B 计划。
（译注：文中说的足球妈妈，指美国社会中会花许多时间带孩子参加体育活动、音乐课等的母亲,尤指典型的中产阶级母亲。）
True, but ... it is more than just the carbon tax. Today every thing is more expensive, much more expensive. In so many (most) cases it takes two incomes to afford living in our modern world.
I believe gasoline/diesel fuel will only go up in price, especially when demand begins to wane with more EVs.
Perhaps EVs will encourage more efficient and better mass transit. No offense the Big Three have shaped the market for vehicles in the US for decades and have guided us away from smaller, more efficient vehicles to larger, more powerful trucks and SUVs. Often time the lower income families are forced to buy the least efficient, older vehicles and that adds to their problem. Remember the Soccer Mom? Once upon a time, her dream was to drive a mini van with a 4 cylinder engine, seating for 5. Now these Moms wouldn't be caught dead in a mini van and prefer those sexy, powerful, heavy SUV/CUVs. Sadly today, our BEVs are echoing the wasteful ways of the ICE(V) Age, by promoting speed and power instead of range and efficiency. Our wonderful Earth has a limited amount of minerals, clean water, and clean air. We have no Plan B.
没错，但是... 它不仅仅是碳税。今天一切都更贵，更贵。在许多（大多数）情况下，我们需要打两份工才能负担得起我们现代世界的生活。
我相信汽油/柴油燃料的价格只会上涨，尤其是当（对化石燃料的）需求随着更多电动汽车而开始减弱时。
也许电动汽车会鼓励更高效、更好的公共交通。几十年来，三巨头塑造了美国的汽车市场，并引诱着我们从更小、更高效的汽车转向更大、更庞大的皮卡和 SUV。低收入家庭经常被迫购买效率最低的旧车，这增加了他们的问题。还记得足球妈妈吗？曾几何时，她的梦想是开一辆可乘坐5人的配备4缸发动机的小车。现在这些妈妈不会被困在一辆小型车上，而是更喜欢那些性感、庞大、重型的SUV或者CUV。可悲的是，今天，我们的电动汽车正在呼应燃油汽车时代的浪费方式，通过提高速度和动力而不是里程和效率（来吸引消费者）。我们美妙的地球拥有有限的矿物质、清洁的水和清洁的空气。我们没有 B 计划。
（译注：文中说的足球妈妈，指美国社会中会花许多时间带孩子参加体育活动、音乐课等的母亲,尤指典型的中产阶级母亲。）
super390
Yeah, I can't figure out if the terrible sales of economy cars is that people would rather buy big used cars, or if they just would rather not be seen driving economy cars.
是的，我不知道经济型汽车糟糕的销售情况是因为人们宁愿购买二手的大型车，还是只是不想被人看到驾驶经济型汽车。
Yeah, I can't figure out if the terrible sales of economy cars is that people would rather buy big used cars, or if they just would rather not be seen driving economy cars.
是的，我不知道经济型汽车糟糕的销售情况是因为人们宁愿购买二手的大型车，还是只是不想被人看到驾驶经济型汽车。
independence01776
In the United States, most things related to elected officials tend to favor the rich, not the common man.
And there are large transition cost to be weighed, mostly a burden to those with less wealth as we make the transition away from fossil fuels to clean sustainable energy. Perhaps a tax credit of $1,000 per year to those households earning less than 80k per year is the best option to offset the cost of the transition we are going through. In a decade or so, rich and poor alike will see the benefits of low cost clean energy and EV's and there will be plenty of used EV's on the market, along with used batteries and used solar panels on the cheap.
在美国，与民选官员有关的大多数事情都倾向于有利于富人，而不是普通人。
在我们从化石燃料向清洁可持续能源转型的过程中，需要权衡巨大的转型成本，这主要是那些低收入人群的负担。对于那些年收入低于 8 万的家庭，每年 1,000 美元的税收抵免或许是抵消我们正在经历的转型成本的最佳选择。大约十年后，无论贫富阶层都将看到低成本清洁能源和电动汽车的好处，市场上将出现大量二手电动汽车，以及廉价的旧电池和太阳能电池板。
In the United States, most things related to elected officials tend to favor the rich, not the common man.
And there are large transition cost to be weighed, mostly a burden to those with less wealth as we make the transition away from fossil fuels to clean sustainable energy. Perhaps a tax credit of $1,000 per year to those households earning less than 80k per year is the best option to offset the cost of the transition we are going through. In a decade or so, rich and poor alike will see the benefits of low cost clean energy and EV's and there will be plenty of used EV's on the market, along with used batteries and used solar panels on the cheap.
在美国，与民选官员有关的大多数事情都倾向于有利于富人，而不是普通人。
在我们从化石燃料向清洁可持续能源转型的过程中，需要权衡巨大的转型成本，这主要是那些低收入人群的负担。对于那些年收入低于 8 万的家庭，每年 1,000 美元的税收抵免或许是抵消我们正在经历的转型成本的最佳选择。大约十年后，无论贫富阶层都将看到低成本清洁能源和电动汽车的好处，市场上将出现大量二手电动汽车，以及廉价的旧电池和太阳能电池板。
HeavyPound SteveM
We saw this in the past where large pickups and SUVs fell out of favor when gas prices spiked. It will be interesting to see if this current boost in interest for EVs fades when/if gas prices fall again. One can hope that this current interest increases and doesn’t drop when the current market forces change.
我们过去看到过这种情况，当汽油价格飙升时，大型皮卡和 SUV 就失宠了。有趣的是，如果汽油价格再次下跌时，目前对电动汽车的兴趣是否会消退。人们可以希望，即使当前市场情况发生变化时，目前这种（对新能源汽车）的兴趣仍会增加而不是下降。
We saw this in the past where large pickups and SUVs fell out of favor when gas prices spiked. It will be interesting to see if this current boost in interest for EVs fades when/if gas prices fall again. One can hope that this current interest increases and doesn’t drop when the current market forces change.
我们过去看到过这种情况，当汽油价格飙升时，大型皮卡和 SUV 就失宠了。有趣的是，如果汽油价格再次下跌时，目前对电动汽车的兴趣是否会消退。人们可以希望，即使当前市场情况发生变化时，目前这种（对新能源汽车）的兴趣仍会增加而不是下降。
Mike HeavyPound
Asking that question sort of assumes you are still comparing large gasoline vehicles vs small gasoline vehicles, as if nothing has changed and as if there are no inherent advantages to electric. That is the scenario where drivers seesaw between large and small/efficient vehicles with gas price swings.
But something has changed. You are now comparing large gasoline vehicles vs large electric vehicles, and there are actual inherent advantages to electric here. The reason for so much interest in the F-150 Lightning, Rivian, and Tesla Cybertruck, before gas prices spiked, is that realization that they are massive batteries on wheels, with numerous practical advantages over gasoline. The torque, the ability to power a worksite with numerous AC outlets, the ability to power a home during an outage, the additional space…
This is part of the tipping point we are seeing, where regardless of gas prices, working people who need torque and mobile onsite electricity are not asking themselves “why would I ever want to buy an electric vehicle” but instead, after looking at the practical advantages, asking themselves “why would I ever want to buy a gas vehicle.”
问这个问题是假设你仍在比较大型汽油车和小型汽油车，好像什么都没有改变，好像电动汽车没有固有的优势。这就是驾驶员在汽油价格波动的大型和小型或者更高效车辆之间摇摆不定的情况。
但是有些事情发生了变化。你现在正在比较大型的燃油车和大型的电动汽车，电动车目前具有固有的优势。在汽油价格飙升之前，人们对 福特F-150闪电、Rivian电动皮卡和 特斯拉皮卡就已经如此感兴趣的原因是他们意识到它们是装在车轮上的大型电池，与汽油车相比具有许多实际优势。高扭矩、为具有众多交流电源插座的工地供电的能力、在停电期间为家庭供电的能力、额外的空间等等……
这是我们所看到的转折点的一部分，无论汽油价格如何，需要大扭矩和移动现场电源的工作者不会问自己“我为什么要购买电动汽车”，而是在看到了电动车的实用优势后，问自己“我为什么要买汽油车”。
Asking that question sort of assumes you are still comparing large gasoline vehicles vs small gasoline vehicles, as if nothing has changed and as if there are no inherent advantages to electric. That is the scenario where drivers seesaw between large and small/efficient vehicles with gas price swings.
But something has changed. You are now comparing large gasoline vehicles vs large electric vehicles, and there are actual inherent advantages to electric here. The reason for so much interest in the F-150 Lightning, Rivian, and Tesla Cybertruck, before gas prices spiked, is that realization that they are massive batteries on wheels, with numerous practical advantages over gasoline. The torque, the ability to power a worksite with numerous AC outlets, the ability to power a home during an outage, the additional space…
This is part of the tipping point we are seeing, where regardless of gas prices, working people who need torque and mobile onsite electricity are not asking themselves “why would I ever want to buy an electric vehicle” but instead, after looking at the practical advantages, asking themselves “why would I ever want to buy a gas vehicle.”
问这个问题是假设你仍在比较大型汽油车和小型汽油车，好像什么都没有改变，好像电动汽车没有固有的优势。这就是驾驶员在汽油价格波动的大型和小型或者更高效车辆之间摇摆不定的情况。
但是有些事情发生了变化。你现在正在比较大型的燃油车和大型的电动汽车，电动车目前具有固有的优势。在汽油价格飙升之前，人们对 福特F-150闪电、Rivian电动皮卡和 特斯拉皮卡就已经如此感兴趣的原因是他们意识到它们是装在车轮上的大型电池，与汽油车相比具有许多实际优势。高扭矩、为具有众多交流电源插座的工地供电的能力、在停电期间为家庭供电的能力、额外的空间等等……
这是我们所看到的转折点的一部分，无论汽油价格如何，需要大扭矩和移动现场电源的工作者不会问自己“我为什么要购买电动汽车”，而是在看到了电动车的实用优势后，问自己“我为什么要买汽油车”。
Luvhrtz HeavyPound
EVs are superior tech and are cheaper over their lifetime. ICE cars on the other hand shake, smell, are dirty, they kill us with toxic gas, are expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, plus they are slow and unresponsive to drive. ICE is obsolete tech .. good luck selling one by 2026 even .. let alone 2030. It is very clear why interest in BEV is accelerating while people drop ICE.
为什么（对电动车的兴趣）会消退？电动汽车是卓越的技术，并且在其全生命周期内更便宜。另一方面，燃油车会抖动、有异味、很脏，它们会用有毒气体杀死我们，维护成本高，燃料成本高，而且它们行驶缓慢且反应迟钝。燃油车是过时的技术 ...... 祝你在 2026 年之前能把它们卖掉...... 更不用说 2030 年了。很清楚为什么人们对电动汽车的兴趣在加速而放弃 燃油车。
EVs are superior tech and are cheaper over their lifetime. ICE cars on the other hand shake, smell, are dirty, they kill us with toxic gas, are expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, plus they are slow and unresponsive to drive. ICE is obsolete tech .. good luck selling one by 2026 even .. let alone 2030. It is very clear why interest in BEV is accelerating while people drop ICE.
为什么（对电动车的兴趣）会消退？电动汽车是卓越的技术，并且在其全生命周期内更便宜。另一方面，燃油车会抖动、有异味、很脏，它们会用有毒气体杀死我们，维护成本高，燃料成本高，而且它们行驶缓慢且反应迟钝。燃油车是过时的技术 ...... 祝你在 2026 年之前能把它们卖掉...... 更不用说 2030 年了。很清楚为什么人们对电动汽车的兴趣在加速而放弃 燃油车。
HeavyPound Luvhrtz
I agree that EVs are superior as I’ve driven 125,000 electric miles over the last 9 years and hope to never buy a new gasoline vehicle. I’m just saying that most consumers aren’t as discerning as you and IF THE GAS PRICES eventually drop, they will forget the recent pain at the pump and possibly buy a gas vehicle when the time comes for a new vehicle.
This isn’t the first time we’ve had gas for over $4 per gallon, but everyone is sure talking like it is.
我同意电动汽车的优越性，因为我在过去 9 年中已经驾驶了 125,000 英里的电动汽车里程，并希望永远不会购买新的燃油车。我只是说大多数消费者不像你那样挑剔，如果汽油价格最终下降，他们会忘记最近加油的痛苦，并可能在需要新车时还是购买汽油车。
这不是我们第一次以每加仑 4 美元以上的价格购买汽油，但每个人都肯定会这样说。
I agree that EVs are superior as I’ve driven 125,000 electric miles over the last 9 years and hope to never buy a new gasoline vehicle. I’m just saying that most consumers aren’t as discerning as you and IF THE GAS PRICES eventually drop, they will forget the recent pain at the pump and possibly buy a gas vehicle when the time comes for a new vehicle.
This isn’t the first time we’ve had gas for over $4 per gallon, but everyone is sure talking like it is.
我同意电动汽车的优越性，因为我在过去 9 年中已经驾驶了 125,000 英里的电动汽车里程，并希望永远不会购买新的燃油车。我只是说大多数消费者不像你那样挑剔，如果汽油价格最终下降，他们会忘记最近加油的痛苦，并可能在需要新车时还是购买汽油车。
这不是我们第一次以每加仑 4 美元以上的价格购买汽油，但每个人都肯定会这样说。
Luvhrtz HeavyPound
Could be. Luddites abound.
有这可能。 卢德分子比比皆是。（译注：卢德运动，工业革命初期由于担心机器对人工的代替对机器设备进行攻击和破坏的运动，当代主要表现为对工业化、自动化、数字化、人工智能等新科技的反对。）
Could be. Luddites abound.
有这可能。 卢德分子比比皆是。（译注：卢德运动，工业革命初期由于担心机器对人工的代替对机器设备进行攻击和破坏的运动，当代主要表现为对工业化、自动化、数字化、人工智能等新科技的反对。）
kbrannen Luvhrtz
It probably won't fade, but they'll easily be selling ICE until 2030 and probably beyond. People can't buy what's not made. I don't know what country you're in, but in the US where I'm from the big makers are saying they'll be selling only 40-60% of their fleet as EV in 2030. Also, the US tends to buy 14M-17M new cars a year and last year there were only about 1M sold. They won't ramp up an extra 13M cars per year very quickly (because they can't get enough batteries), and not even in 3.5 years (your 2026).
We will transition, but it won't go as fast as many hope -- at least in the US. Other countries will make it faster.
兴趣可能不会消退，但他们很容易在 2030 年甚至更久之后继续销售燃油汽车。因为人们买不到制造不出的东西。我不知道你在哪个国家，但在我来自拥有大型（电动汽车）制造商的美国，他们说到 2030 年他们在销售的汽车总量中仍只能有 40-60% 的电动汽车。此外，美国每年售出 1400 万至 1700 万辆新车，而去年仅售出约 100 万辆（电动汽车）。他们不会很快每年增加到 1300 万辆（电动）汽车的（因为他们无法获得足够的电池），甚至在 3.5 年内（也就是你说的 2026 年）也不会。
我们将过渡到电动汽车，但不会像许多人希望的那样快——至少在美国是这样。其他国家会更快。
It probably won't fade, but they'll easily be selling ICE until 2030 and probably beyond. People can't buy what's not made. I don't know what country you're in, but in the US where I'm from the big makers are saying they'll be selling only 40-60% of their fleet as EV in 2030. Also, the US tends to buy 14M-17M new cars a year and last year there were only about 1M sold. They won't ramp up an extra 13M cars per year very quickly (because they can't get enough batteries), and not even in 3.5 years (your 2026).
We will transition, but it won't go as fast as many hope -- at least in the US. Other countries will make it faster.
兴趣可能不会消退，但他们很容易在 2030 年甚至更久之后继续销售燃油汽车。因为人们买不到制造不出的东西。我不知道你在哪个国家，但在我来自拥有大型（电动汽车）制造商的美国，他们说到 2030 年他们在销售的汽车总量中仍只能有 40-60% 的电动汽车。此外，美国每年售出 1400 万至 1700 万辆新车，而去年仅售出约 100 万辆（电动汽车）。他们不会很快每年增加到 1300 万辆（电动）汽车的（因为他们无法获得足够的电池），甚至在 3.5 年内（也就是你说的 2026 年）也不会。
我们将过渡到电动汽车，但不会像许多人希望的那样快——至少在美国是这样。其他国家会更快。
Grayson81
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Until a few days ago, Australia had a Government that was almost comically committed to trying to sabotage the EV transition.
They were actively campaigning against EVs saying that they were a plan to “kill the weekend” (because it’s not a real weekend unless you drive an ICE car a bit further than an imaginary hypothetical EV’s range) and their policies reflected that.
It’ll be interesting to see how that figure changes now that they’ve got a slightly more sane Government running the country!
“在对 18 个国家的 13,000 人进行的一项调查中，意大利 (73%)、中国 (69%) 和韩国 (63%) 的购车者最愿意购买电动汽车。澳大利亚 (38%)和美国 (29%) 的消费者承诺最少。”
直到几天前，澳大利亚的政府还在几乎可笑地致力于破坏过渡到电动汽车的进程。
他们积极反对电动汽车，称他们是“扼杀周末”的计划（因为这不是一个真正的周末，除非你驾驶一辆燃油车，它比想象中的电动汽车的续航里程更远一点），他们的政策反映了这一点。
现在既然他们有一个稍微理智一点的政府来管理这个国家，那么看看这个数字会如何变化会很有趣！
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Until a few days ago, Australia had a Government that was almost comically committed to trying to sabotage the EV transition.
They were actively campaigning against EVs saying that they were a plan to “kill the weekend” (because it’s not a real weekend unless you drive an ICE car a bit further than an imaginary hypothetical EV’s range) and their policies reflected that.
It’ll be interesting to see how that figure changes now that they’ve got a slightly more sane Government running the country!
“在对 18 个国家的 13,000 人进行的一项调查中，意大利 (73%)、中国 (69%) 和韩国 (63%) 的购车者最愿意购买电动汽车。澳大利亚 (38%)和美国 (29%) 的消费者承诺最少。”
直到几天前，澳大利亚的政府还在几乎可笑地致力于破坏过渡到电动汽车的进程。
他们积极反对电动汽车，称他们是“扼杀周末”的计划（因为这不是一个真正的周末，除非你驾驶一辆燃油车，它比想象中的电动汽车的续航里程更远一点），他们的政策反映了这一点。
现在既然他们有一个稍微理智一点的政府来管理这个国家，那么看看这个数字会如何变化会很有趣！
Fiat500earl kbrannen
And the EVs can't be made until the battery factories are ramped up and the chip shortage is solved and in general the broken supply chains are fixed.
在电池工厂扩大规模、芯片短缺问题得到解决、供应链中断的情况总体上得到修复之前，电动汽车是无法扩大制造规模的。
And the EVs can't be made until the battery factories are ramped up and the chip shortage is solved and in general the broken supply chains are fixed.
在电池工厂扩大规模、芯片短缺问题得到解决、供应链中断的情况总体上得到修复之前，电动汽车是无法扩大制造规模的。
Luvhrtz kbrannen
What I’m learning is the flip to BEV is panning out faster than predicted .. so 40's will be largely 100% BEV based on how things are going today. All segments will be addressed by BEV and the industry / supporting infrastructure will mature by then. Automakers plans will have to accelerate because the competition will take market share if they don’t.
我所了解到的是，电动汽车的转变速度比预期的要快......所以根据今天的情况，40年代将很可能在很大程度上实现100% 的电动汽车销售。电动汽车将解决所有细分市场，届时行业/配套基础设施将成熟。汽车制造商的计划将不得不加速，因为如果他们不这样做，竞争者就会占据市场份额。
What I’m learning is the flip to BEV is panning out faster than predicted .. so 40's will be largely 100% BEV based on how things are going today. All segments will be addressed by BEV and the industry / supporting infrastructure will mature by then. Automakers plans will have to accelerate because the competition will take market share if they don’t.
我所了解到的是，电动汽车的转变速度比预期的要快......所以根据今天的情况，40年代将很可能在很大程度上实现100% 的电动汽车销售。电动汽车将解决所有细分市场，届时行业/配套基础设施将成熟。汽车制造商的计划将不得不加速，因为如果他们不这样做，竞争者就会占据市场份额。
Brad Sloan Luvhrtz
Transit is changing to electric buses faster than people are to electric cars. What I have seen in Texas all the major cities are buying electric buses.
公交车改用电动巴士的速度比人们改用电动汽车的速度要快。 我在德克萨斯州看到的所有主要城市都在采购电动巴士。
Transit is changing to electric buses faster than people are to electric cars. What I have seen in Texas all the major cities are buying electric buses.
公交车改用电动巴士的速度比人们改用电动汽车的速度要快。 我在德克萨斯州看到的所有主要城市都在采购电动巴士。
kbrannen
From now on the rate of BEV adoption is about how quickly the industry can build its supplylines.
I do agree with that. However, that's another thing that will prevent EV from being a majority by 2026 and 100% by 2030. Perhaps I'm overly pessimistic, but I don't think the supply lines can be built fast and well enough. Having enough batteries will be the biggest problem.Transitions are hard (although we will get there eventually).
“从现在开始，电动汽车的采用率取决于该行业能够以多快的速度建立供应链。”
我同意这一点。然而，这是另一件事，它将阻止电动汽车在 2026 年和 2030 年成为多数。也许我过于悲观，但我认为供应链无法快速和良好地建立起来。供应足够的电池将是最大的问题。过渡不会很容易（尽管我们最终会到达那里）。
From now on the rate of BEV adoption is about how quickly the industry can build its supplylines.
I do agree with that. However, that's another thing that will prevent EV from being a majority by 2026 and 100% by 2030. Perhaps I'm overly pessimistic, but I don't think the supply lines can be built fast and well enough. Having enough batteries will be the biggest problem.Transitions are hard (although we will get there eventually).
“从现在开始，电动汽车的采用率取决于该行业能够以多快的速度建立供应链。”
我同意这一点。然而，这是另一件事，它将阻止电动汽车在 2026 年和 2030 年成为多数。也许我过于悲观，但我认为供应链无法快速和良好地建立起来。供应足够的电池将是最大的问题。过渡不会很容易（尽管我们最终会到达那里）。
Haggy ✓ᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ᵃᶜᶜᵒᵘᶰᵗ
The survey seems to be among non-EV owners, asking them about whether they would buy an EV, but it's not entirely clear. If you ask Tesla owners why they bought a Tesla, the environmental part might show up as a consideration. But it's far from the main reason why people buy EVs. But it's the number one attacking point by haters.
该调查似乎是在非电动车车主中进行的，询问他们是否会购买电动车，但并不完全清楚。如果你问特斯拉车主为什么买特斯拉，环境部分可能会作为考虑因素出现。但这远不是人们购买电动汽车的主要原因。但它是仇恨者们的攻击焦点。
The survey seems to be among non-EV owners, asking them about whether they would buy an EV, but it's not entirely clear. If you ask Tesla owners why they bought a Tesla, the environmental part might show up as a consideration. But it's far from the main reason why people buy EVs. But it's the number one attacking point by haters.
该调查似乎是在非电动车车主中进行的，询问他们是否会购买电动车，但并不完全清楚。如果你问特斯拉车主为什么买特斯拉，环境部分可能会作为考虑因素出现。但这远不是人们购买电动汽车的主要原因。但它是仇恨者们的攻击焦点。
super390 Haggy ✓ᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ᵃᶜᶜᵒᵘᶰᵗ
Like most politics since about 1968, the point of attacking environmentalism is not purchasing decisions, but creating a sense of threat that can only be dealt with by "action", which is navigated into huddling together with like-minded people to try to save their notion of America. Note that there's a lot less of this overseas.
就像 1968 年以来的大多数政治一样，攻击环保主义的重点不是购买决策，而是制造一种只能通过“行动”来应对的威胁感，这种威胁感被引导成与志同道合的人糅合在一起，成为他们试图拯救美国的所谓理念。
请注意，这种情况在其他国家要少得多。
Like most politics since about 1968, the point of attacking environmentalism is not purchasing decisions, but creating a sense of threat that can only be dealt with by "action", which is navigated into huddling together with like-minded people to try to save their notion of America. Note that there's a lot less of this overseas.
就像 1968 年以来的大多数政治一样，攻击环保主义的重点不是购买决策，而是制造一种只能通过“行动”来应对的威胁感，这种威胁感被引导成与志同道合的人糅合在一起，成为他们试图拯救美国的所谓理念。
请注意，这种情况在其他国家要少得多。
EVtruckin
Now only if there were sufficient numbers of EVs available to buy... (or even any available at all)
现在只有当有足够数量的电动汽车可供购买时……（甚至任何可用的）
Now only if there were sufficient numbers of EVs available to buy... (or even any available at all)
现在只有当有足够数量的电动汽车可供购买时……（甚至任何可用的）
Avatar
Will Meek EVtruckin
Supply is ramping quickly.
供应正在迅速增加。
Will Meek EVtruckin
Supply is ramping quickly.
供应正在迅速增加。
EVtruckin Will Meek
Much slower than the increase in demand. Even Tesla stopped taking orders.
远远低于需求的增长。甚至特斯拉也停止接受新订单了。
Much slower than the increase in demand. Even Tesla stopped taking orders.
远远低于需求的增长。甚至特斯拉也停止接受新订单了。
Will Meek EVtruckin
When demand outstrips production despite doubling every year, that tells u more about the future of the market than anything else.
尽管每年翻一番，但当需求超过产量时，这比其他任何事情都更能告诉你市场的未来是什么。
When demand outstrips production despite doubling every year, that tells u more about the future of the market than anything else.
尽管每年翻一番，但当需求超过产量时，这比其他任何事情都更能告诉你市场的未来是什么。
Greg N EVtruckin
Keep in mind that Tesla increases their production by roughly 50% every year (insane!) and they finally scared the legacy automakers enough to get them SERIOULSY building EVs. Mustang Mach E, F150 Lightning, Hummer EV all hit the market and rapidly sold out THIS YEAR. Those big automakers WILL ramp production in response. Add to that any automaker that doesnt have an EV on the market yet, is getting one to market ASAP because the writing is on the wall. In the next year or two there will be so many more choices and so many more total EVs for sale.
请记住，特斯拉每年将产量增加大约 50%（疯了！），他们最终吓坏了传统汽车制造商，让他们认真地制造电动汽车。 野马 E、F150 闪电、悍马EV 均在今年上市并迅速售罄。那些大型汽车制造商将增加产量作为回应。除此之外，任何尚未在市场上推出电动汽车的汽车制造商都将尽快将其推向市场，因为这一切都已成定局。在接下来的一两年内，将会有更多的选择和更多的电动汽车总销量。
Keep in mind that Tesla increases their production by roughly 50% every year (insane!) and they finally scared the legacy automakers enough to get them SERIOULSY building EVs. Mustang Mach E, F150 Lightning, Hummer EV all hit the market and rapidly sold out THIS YEAR. Those big automakers WILL ramp production in response. Add to that any automaker that doesnt have an EV on the market yet, is getting one to market ASAP because the writing is on the wall. In the next year or two there will be so many more choices and so many more total EVs for sale.
请记住，特斯拉每年将产量增加大约 50%（疯了！），他们最终吓坏了传统汽车制造商，让他们认真地制造电动汽车。 野马 E、F150 闪电、悍马EV 均在今年上市并迅速售罄。那些大型汽车制造商将增加产量作为回应。除此之外，任何尚未在市场上推出电动汽车的汽车制造商都将尽快将其推向市场，因为这一切都已成定局。在接下来的一两年内，将会有更多的选择和更多的电动汽车总销量。
Billy Greg N
I drove past the new Texas Giga Factory....that place is huge and will likely scale to 2M cars/year at that plant alone.
我开车经过新的德克萨斯州特斯拉的 Giga 工厂……那个地方很大，仅在那个工厂就有可能扩大到 200 万辆汽车/年。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I drove past the new Texas Giga Factory....that place is huge and will likely scale to 2M cars/year at that plant alone.
我开车经过新的德克萨斯州特斯拉的 Giga 工厂……那个地方很大，仅在那个工厂就有可能扩大到 200 万辆汽车/年。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe
When gas prices spike consumers turn to smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. Once gas prices drop fuel thirsty SUV sales pick up almost instantly
This tells us that consumers are price sensitive yet very short sighted.
This EV interest is also likely the same, once gas prices drop EV interest will fall.
That said there are some differences this time, this massive spike is due to the war in Ukraine, so the drop will take longer and we may even experience more spikes in the interim. Also Europe is now committed to getting off Russian oil for geopolitical reasons which should help EVs. Finally EV availability is at all time highs, an easy answer to high gas prices.
Price parity for EVs will come but its a fair ways off, but if demand does drop with low oil prices EV prices will also drop after the current scaling of production is complete becasue supply exceeding demand lowers prices, econ 101.
当汽油价格飙升时，消费者会转向更小、更省油的汽车。一旦汽油价格下降，SUV的销量就会立即回升
这告诉我们，消费者对价格敏感但目光短浅。
这种电动汽车的兴趣也很可能是一样的，一旦汽油价格下降，电动汽车的兴趣就会下降。
话虽如此，这次还是有一些不同，这个巨大的峰值是由于乌克兰的战争，所以下降需要更长的时间，我们甚至可能在此期间经历更多的峰值。此外，出于地缘政治原因，欧洲现在致力于摆脱俄罗斯石油，这应该有助于电动汽车。最后，电动汽车的可用性一直处于历史最高水平，这是对高油价的一个简单回应。
电动汽车的价格平价将会到来，但还有一段距离，但如果需求确实因低油价而下降，则在当前的生产规模完成后，电动汽车价格也会下降，因为供大于求会降低价格，经济学的入门级课程。
When gas prices spike consumers turn to smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. Once gas prices drop fuel thirsty SUV sales pick up almost instantly
This tells us that consumers are price sensitive yet very short sighted.
This EV interest is also likely the same, once gas prices drop EV interest will fall.
That said there are some differences this time, this massive spike is due to the war in Ukraine, so the drop will take longer and we may even experience more spikes in the interim. Also Europe is now committed to getting off Russian oil for geopolitical reasons which should help EVs. Finally EV availability is at all time highs, an easy answer to high gas prices.
Price parity for EVs will come but its a fair ways off, but if demand does drop with low oil prices EV prices will also drop after the current scaling of production is complete becasue supply exceeding demand lowers prices, econ 101.
当汽油价格飙升时，消费者会转向更小、更省油的汽车。一旦汽油价格下降，SUV的销量就会立即回升
这告诉我们，消费者对价格敏感但目光短浅。
这种电动汽车的兴趣也很可能是一样的，一旦汽油价格下降，电动汽车的兴趣就会下降。
话虽如此，这次还是有一些不同，这个巨大的峰值是由于乌克兰的战争，所以下降需要更长的时间，我们甚至可能在此期间经历更多的峰值。此外，出于地缘政治原因，欧洲现在致力于摆脱俄罗斯石油，这应该有助于电动汽车。最后，电动汽车的可用性一直处于历史最高水平，这是对高油价的一个简单回应。
电动汽车的价格平价将会到来，但还有一段距离，但如果需求确实因低油价而下降，则在当前的生产规模完成后，电动汽车价格也会下降，因为供大于求会降低价格，经济学的入门级课程。
Juggarjew
Yeah... its almost like gas prices went up and reality hit them in the mouth.
They're forecasting $6 a gallon US average by End of August. If that actually happens the value of existing EV's will exploding like we've never seen before as desperate people flock to try and get out of the 16 MPG V8's they all bought during the pandemic at fire sale prices. I know a huge number of people in the South East that think its normal to daily drive a 10 year old V8 truck getting 15-16 MPG on average.
是的......几乎就像汽油价格上涨的现实打击了他们。
他们预计到 8 月底美国平均每加仑汽油价格将达到6 美元。如果这种情况真的发生，那么现有电动汽车的价值将像我们以前从未见过的那样爆炸，因为绝望的人们蜂拥而至，试图摆脱他们在大流行期间以低价购买的每加仑跑16英里的V8发动机的大型车。我知道东南部有很多人认为每天驾驶一辆10年车龄的 V8皮卡平均每加仑油跑15-16 英里是正常的。
Yeah... its almost like gas prices went up and reality hit them in the mouth.
They're forecasting $6 a gallon US average by End of August. If that actually happens the value of existing EV's will exploding like we've never seen before as desperate people flock to try and get out of the 16 MPG V8's they all bought during the pandemic at fire sale prices. I know a huge number of people in the South East that think its normal to daily drive a 10 year old V8 truck getting 15-16 MPG on average.
是的......几乎就像汽油价格上涨的现实打击了他们。
他们预计到 8 月底美国平均每加仑汽油价格将达到6 美元。如果这种情况真的发生，那么现有电动汽车的价值将像我们以前从未见过的那样爆炸，因为绝望的人们蜂拥而至，试图摆脱他们在大流行期间以低价购买的每加仑跑16英里的V8发动机的大型车。我知道东南部有很多人认为每天驾驶一辆10年车龄的 V8皮卡平均每加仑油跑15-16 英里是正常的。
Will Meek Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe
I am now of the opinion that EVs may never reach price parity. I think ICEVs will die before that happens as demand for EVs will remain high even as parity in cost to manufacture is achieved next year or the year after.
IE, manufacturers will stop making ICEVs before they fall below BEVs in sales price because ICEVs will be less profitable.
我现在认为电动汽车可能永远不会达到价格平价。我认为 ICEV 将在此之前消亡，因为即使明年或后年实现制造成本平价，对 EV 的需求仍将保持高位。
即，制造商将在销售价格低于 BEV 之前停止生产 ICEV，因为 ICEV 的利润将降低。
I am now of the opinion that EVs may never reach price parity. I think ICEVs will die before that happens as demand for EVs will remain high even as parity in cost to manufacture is achieved next year or the year after.
IE, manufacturers will stop making ICEVs before they fall below BEVs in sales price because ICEVs will be less profitable.
我现在认为电动汽车可能永远不会达到价格平价。我认为 ICEV 将在此之前消亡，因为即使明年或后年实现制造成本平价，对 EV 的需求仍将保持高位。
即，制造商将在销售价格低于 BEV 之前停止生产 ICEV，因为 ICEV 的利润将降低。
Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe Will Meek
I am now of the opinion that EVs may never reach price parity.
Many used to say the same about Solar.
Last year Tesla's battery price was estimated at $137/kWh, at $100 kWh its close to price parity.
But demand far outstrips supply so price is not coming down at the consumer level even if it is at the wholesale level.
我现在认为电动汽车可能永远不会达到廉价。
许多人过去常常对太阳能说同样的话。
去年特斯拉的电池价格估计为 137 美元/千瓦时，接近100 美元平均价格。
但需求仍远远超过供应，因此即使在批发层面，消费者层面的价格也不会下降。
I am now of the opinion that EVs may never reach price parity.
Many used to say the same about Solar.
Last year Tesla's battery price was estimated at $137/kWh, at $100 kWh its close to price parity.
But demand far outstrips supply so price is not coming down at the consumer level even if it is at the wholesale level.
我现在认为电动汽车可能永远不会达到廉价。
许多人过去常常对太阳能说同样的话。
去年特斯拉的电池价格估计为 137 美元/千瓦时，接近100 美元平均价格。
但需求仍远远超过供应，因此即使在批发层面，消费者层面的价格也不会下降。
Will Meek Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe
That is basically what I am talking about.
这基本上就是我所说的。
That is basically what I am talking about.
这基本上就是我所说的。
t_newt Will Meek
EVs are expensive solely because of the price of batteries. Everything else is lower cost in comparison--no engine, oil, oil pumps, transmission, radiator, etc etc.
Many many billions of dollars are now being spent on battery research. A lot of this research looks very promising. We might get twice the power density or more, which means the majority of the cost of EVs could end up at one half the cost.
I think it is inevitable that EVs will not just reach price parity, but will be much cheaper than the equivalent ICE cars.
Wouldn't you choose a car that costs less, is cheaper to run, and has better specs?
电动汽车之所以昂贵，仅仅是因为电池的价格。相比之下，其他所有东西的成本都更低——没有发动机、机油、油泵、变速箱、散热器等。
现在有几十亿美元被投入用于电池研究。许多这样的研究看起来很有希望。我们可能会获得两倍或更多的功率密度，这意味着电动汽车的大部分成本最终可能是现有成本的一半。
我认为电动汽车不可避免地不仅会达到价格，而且会比同等的内燃机汽车便宜得多。
你不会选择成本更低、运行更便宜、规格更好的汽车吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
EVs are expensive solely because of the price of batteries. Everything else is lower cost in comparison--no engine, oil, oil pumps, transmission, radiator, etc etc.
Many many billions of dollars are now being spent on battery research. A lot of this research looks very promising. We might get twice the power density or more, which means the majority of the cost of EVs could end up at one half the cost.
I think it is inevitable that EVs will not just reach price parity, but will be much cheaper than the equivalent ICE cars.
Wouldn't you choose a car that costs less, is cheaper to run, and has better specs?
电动汽车之所以昂贵，仅仅是因为电池的价格。相比之下，其他所有东西的成本都更低——没有发动机、机油、油泵、变速箱、散热器等。
现在有几十亿美元被投入用于电池研究。许多这样的研究看起来很有希望。我们可能会获得两倍或更多的功率密度，这意味着电动汽车的大部分成本最终可能是现有成本的一半。
我认为电动汽车不可避免地不仅会达到价格，而且会比同等的内燃机汽车便宜得多。
你不会选择成本更低、运行更便宜、规格更好的汽车吗？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Will Meek t_newt
Don’t confuse cost and price. With EVs being the obviously superior technology, demand for EVs will remain high well after ICEV production ceases, this is why I think EVs and ICEVs will never reach price parity, ICEVs will die first.
不要混淆成本和价格。由于电动汽车明显的优势技术，在燃油车停产后，对电动车的需求仍将保持高位，这就是为什么我认为电动汽车和燃油车永远不会达到相同价格水平，燃油车仍会先玩完儿。
Don’t confuse cost and price. With EVs being the obviously superior technology, demand for EVs will remain high well after ICEV production ceases, this is why I think EVs and ICEVs will never reach price parity, ICEVs will die first.
不要混淆成本和价格。由于电动汽车明显的优势技术，在燃油车停产后，对电动车的需求仍将保持高位，这就是为什么我认为电动汽车和燃油车永远不会达到相同价格水平，燃油车仍会先玩完儿。
kbrannen Will Meek
Just curious, what year does your crystal ball say that the US will have 14M EV's a year to buy? I pick that number as it's about the number of new cars sold in the US last year. I think until we get 14M+ new EVs a year that ICE cars will still be sold and in significant numbers. So it can make a better guess, be sure to tell your crystal ball that only about 1M were sold last year and the major makers have said that they only plan to have 40-60% of their cars as EV by 2030. :)
I think your point about the 2 types not reaching price parity and why is interesting to consider. I don't have an opinion on if you're right or not, but it is an interesting question.
只是好奇，你的水晶球说美国将在哪一年购买 1400 万辆电动汽车？我选择这个数字是因为它与去年在美国销售的新车数量有关。我认为，在我们每年获得超过 1400 万辆新电动汽车之前，燃油汽车仍将大量销售。所以它可以做出更好的猜测，一定要告诉你的水晶球，去年只售出了大约 100 万辆，而主要制造商已经表示他们只计划到 2030 年将 40-60% 的汽车改为电动汽车。:)
我认为你关于两种类型未达到价格平价的观点以及为什么考虑这一点很有趣。我对你是否正确没有意见，但这是一个有趣的问题。
Just curious, what year does your crystal ball say that the US will have 14M EV's a year to buy? I pick that number as it's about the number of new cars sold in the US last year. I think until we get 14M+ new EVs a year that ICE cars will still be sold and in significant numbers. So it can make a better guess, be sure to tell your crystal ball that only about 1M were sold last year and the major makers have said that they only plan to have 40-60% of their cars as EV by 2030. :)
I think your point about the 2 types not reaching price parity and why is interesting to consider. I don't have an opinion on if you're right or not, but it is an interesting question.
只是好奇，你的水晶球说美国将在哪一年购买 1400 万辆电动汽车？我选择这个数字是因为它与去年在美国销售的新车数量有关。我认为，在我们每年获得超过 1400 万辆新电动汽车之前，燃油汽车仍将大量销售。所以它可以做出更好的猜测，一定要告诉你的水晶球，去年只售出了大约 100 万辆，而主要制造商已经表示他们只计划到 2030 年将 40-60% 的汽车改为电动汽车。:)
我认为你关于两种类型未达到价格平价的观点以及为什么考虑这一点很有趣。我对你是否正确没有意见，但这是一个有趣的问题。
Brad Sloan kbrannen
The hold back right now to EVs is the production rate of building them. Orders are coming in far faster than auto companies can build them. Tesla just finish new factories in Texas and German which are now ramping up production.
目前阻碍电动汽车的是制造它们的生产率。订单来得比汽车公司建造订单的速度要快得多。特斯拉刚刚在德克萨斯州和德国完成了新工厂，这些工厂现在正在提高产量。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The hold back right now to EVs is the production rate of building them. Orders are coming in far faster than auto companies can build them. Tesla just finish new factories in Texas and German which are now ramping up production.
目前阻碍电动汽车的是制造它们的生产率。订单来得比汽车公司建造订单的速度要快得多。特斯拉刚刚在德克萨斯州和德国完成了新工厂，这些工厂现在正在提高产量。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
super390 kbrannen
I think soon fewer than 10 million new cars will be sold in the US each year. Our cultural relationship to cars is changing. Young people just don't prioritize them the way we did.
As for the major makers, they fail to see everything coming a decade away.
我认为很快美国每年将售出不到 1000 万辆新车。我们与汽车的文化关系正在发生变化。年轻人只是不像我们那样优先考虑它们。
至于主要制造商，他们看不到十年后的一切。
I think soon fewer than 10 million new cars will be sold in the US each year. Our cultural relationship to cars is changing. Young people just don't prioritize them the way we did.
As for the major makers, they fail to see everything coming a decade away.
我认为很快美国每年将售出不到 1000 万辆新车。我们与汽车的文化关系正在发生变化。年轻人只是不像我们那样优先考虑它们。
至于主要制造商，他们看不到十年后的一切。
kbrannen super390
You could be right about younger people not caring about cars as much; but as kbm3 points out, if the younger generation is going to rely on Uber/Lyft/etc, then that going to take a lot of cars anyway, so the over total may not decrease that much. That being said, I'm not sure we'll know one way or the other for another 5=10 years.
So the burning question I have in regards to new car sales is: If there were no supply shortages at all (chips, batteries, anything for EV or gas), how many new car sales would there really be? I'm reasonably sure we can't answer that until the supply chain problems are gone and I'm also sure the answer will be interesting.
年轻人不太关心汽车，你可能是对的。但正如 kbm3 指出的那样，如果年轻一代要依赖 Uber/Lyft/等，那么无论如何都会占用很多汽车，所以总体总量可能不会减少那么多。话虽如此，我不确定我们是否会在另外 5 = 10 年内以一种或另一种方式知道。
因此，关于新车销售，我最迫切的问题是：如果根本没有供应短缺（芯片、电池、电动汽车或汽油的任何东西），那么真的会增加多少新电动汽车的销售？我有理由相信，在供应链问题消失之前，我们无法回答这个问题，而且我也相信答案会很有趣。
You could be right about younger people not caring about cars as much; but as kbm3 points out, if the younger generation is going to rely on Uber/Lyft/etc, then that going to take a lot of cars anyway, so the over total may not decrease that much. That being said, I'm not sure we'll know one way or the other for another 5=10 years.
So the burning question I have in regards to new car sales is: If there were no supply shortages at all (chips, batteries, anything for EV or gas), how many new car sales would there really be? I'm reasonably sure we can't answer that until the supply chain problems are gone and I'm also sure the answer will be interesting.
年轻人不太关心汽车，你可能是对的。但正如 kbm3 指出的那样，如果年轻一代要依赖 Uber/Lyft/等，那么无论如何都会占用很多汽车，所以总体总量可能不会减少那么多。话虽如此，我不确定我们是否会在另外 5 = 10 年内以一种或另一种方式知道。
因此，关于新车销售，我最迫切的问题是：如果根本没有供应短缺（芯片、电池、电动汽车或汽油的任何东西），那么真的会增加多少新电动汽车的销售？我有理由相信，在供应链问题消失之前，我们无法回答这个问题，而且我也相信答案会很有趣。
Brad Sloan super390
This is not a minor trend.The are lot more orders than can be filled quickly and it is increasing. This is growing every year.
这不是一个小趋势。订单数量远远超过可以快速完成的数量，而且还在增加。每年都在增长。
This is not a minor trend.The are lot more orders than can be filled quickly and it is increasing. This is growing every year.
这不是一个小趋势。订单数量远远超过可以快速完成的数量，而且还在增加。每年都在增长。
t_newt
Well, I agree demand can drive price regardless of the costs, but more and more car makers are significantly increasing their production of EVs. Like battery price drops, it will be a few years before we'll see high EV production numbers for companies other than Tesla, but when we do, the supply will meet demand, and prices will tend to more closely align with costs, at about the same time battery prices will drop (and don't forget Tesla production will be way higher too). It is all pointing to the direction of EVs costing less that ICE cars.
It certainly doesn't look like it now, but think ahead a few years, taking into consideration all the changes that are occurring at a very fast rate.
好吧，我同意不管成本如何，需求都会推动价格，但越来越多的汽车制造商正在大幅增加电动汽车的产量。就像电池价格下降一样，我们还需要几年的时间才能看到特斯拉以外的公司提供更高产量的电动汽车，但当我们这样做时，供应将满足需求，价格将更接近于成本，约为同时电池价格会下降（别忘了特斯拉的产量也会更高）。这一切都指向电动汽车成本低于内燃机汽车的方向。
当然现在看起来不像，但考虑到所有正在以非常快的速度发生的变化，请提前几年思考。
Well, I agree demand can drive price regardless of the costs, but more and more car makers are significantly increasing their production of EVs. Like battery price drops, it will be a few years before we'll see high EV production numbers for companies other than Tesla, but when we do, the supply will meet demand, and prices will tend to more closely align with costs, at about the same time battery prices will drop (and don't forget Tesla production will be way higher too). It is all pointing to the direction of EVs costing less that ICE cars.
It certainly doesn't look like it now, but think ahead a few years, taking into consideration all the changes that are occurring at a very fast rate.
好吧，我同意不管成本如何，需求都会推动价格，但越来越多的汽车制造商正在大幅增加电动汽车的产量。就像电池价格下降一样，我们还需要几年的时间才能看到特斯拉以外的公司提供更高产量的电动汽车，但当我们这样做时，供应将满足需求，价格将更接近于成本，约为同时电池价格会下降（别忘了特斯拉的产量也会更高）。这一切都指向电动汽车成本低于内燃机汽车的方向。
当然现在看起来不像，但考虑到所有正在以非常快的速度发生的变化，请提前几年思考。
kbm3 Will Meek
Eventually EVs will be priced less. Once the market is saturated at the current price, somebody will realize they can make a healthy profit on even cheaper EVs (Because the cost is less), and they will ship a product to fulfill this market need.
最终，电动汽车的价格会更低。一旦市场以目前的价格饱和，有人会意识到他们可以在更便宜的电动汽车上获得可观的利润（因为成本更低），他们将推出满足这一市场需求的产品。
Eventually EVs will be priced less. Once the market is saturated at the current price, somebody will realize they can make a healthy profit on even cheaper EVs (Because the cost is less), and they will ship a product to fulfill this market need.
最终，电动汽车的价格会更低。一旦市场以目前的价格饱和，有人会意识到他们可以在更便宜的电动汽车上获得可观的利润（因为成本更低），他们将推出满足这一市场需求的产品。
Will Meek kbm3
The question is whether ICEVs will survive long enough for that to happen. As the cost to manufacture drops, EVs become more profitable at the high prices. Why would manufacturers continue to make less profitable ICEVs?
问题是，燃油车是否能存活足够长的时间来实现这一目标。随着制造成本的下降，电动汽车在高价下变得更有利可图。为什么制造商会继续生产利润较低的燃油车？
The question is whether ICEVs will survive long enough for that to happen. As the cost to manufacture drops, EVs become more profitable at the high prices. Why would manufacturers continue to make less profitable ICEVs?
问题是，燃油车是否能存活足够长的时间来实现这一目标。随着制造成本的下降，电动汽车在高价下变得更有利可图。为什么制造商会继续生产利润较低的燃油车？
ShirBlackspots
Earlier this year, Motorweek was showing the Lightning F-150, I was trying to explain EVs amid my Dad, Mom and brother all bitching about how the Democrats are forcing us to buy EVs. (Dad switched the channel to PBS for watch Motorweek)
I mentioned that the SR Lightning goes 230 miles on a charge, Dad goes "I can go further on a tank of gas".
It's going to be a whole lot more difficult to convert the US to EVs because conservatives see green energy as evil and a way to eliminate freedoms. Doesn't help that people like my parents watch Fox News about 8-10 hours a day.
今年早些时候，《汽车周刊》展示了福特的纯电皮卡 F-150闪电，我试图在我的爸爸、妈妈和兄弟中解释电动汽车，他们都在抱怨民主党如何强迫我们购买电动汽车。（我老爹把频道从汽车周刊切换去看 PBS了 ）
我向他们提到“闪电”SR一次充电可以行驶 230 英里，我爹说“用一箱油我可以跑得更远”。
将美国转变为电动汽车将变得更加困难，因为保守派认为绿色能源是邪恶的，是破坏自由的一种方式。像我爹妈这种每天看 8 到 10 个小时的福克斯新闻的人更是无济于事。
Earlier this year, Motorweek was showing the Lightning F-150, I was trying to explain EVs amid my Dad, Mom and brother all bitching about how the Democrats are forcing us to buy EVs. (Dad switched the channel to PBS for watch Motorweek)
I mentioned that the SR Lightning goes 230 miles on a charge, Dad goes "I can go further on a tank of gas".
It's going to be a whole lot more difficult to convert the US to EVs because conservatives see green energy as evil and a way to eliminate freedoms. Doesn't help that people like my parents watch Fox News about 8-10 hours a day.
今年早些时候，《汽车周刊》展示了福特的纯电皮卡 F-150闪电，我试图在我的爸爸、妈妈和兄弟中解释电动汽车，他们都在抱怨民主党如何强迫我们购买电动汽车。（我老爹把频道从汽车周刊切换去看 PBS了 ）
我向他们提到“闪电”SR一次充电可以行驶 230 英里，我爹说“用一箱油我可以跑得更远”。
将美国转变为电动汽车将变得更加困难，因为保守派认为绿色能源是邪恶的，是破坏自由的一种方式。像我爹妈这种每天看 8 到 10 个小时的福克斯新闻的人更是无济于事。
很赞 0
收藏