QA:在高通胀的情况下,亿万富翁们会投资哪里?
2022-06-17 遐怪 10529
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原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Ski Milburn
Billionaires buy politicians, and sometimes, entire governments. Best investment you could own during times of high inflation, makes it easy to front-run every zig and zag the government makes.
Speaking of front-running, billionaires buy big into leading securities firms. With today’s lightning fast trading algorithms, the only way to beat the market is to make your trades one second before the machines. Easily done when you own the firm.
Illegal? Laws are for the little people.
Millionaires buy hard, practical assets (like real estate) and leverage them with fixed rate mortgages. During inflation, the value of the assets, and their cash flow will largely track the inflation rate, while the debt, and the debt service will stay the same, effectively melting away.

亿万富翁买通政客,有时甚至买通整个政府。在高通胀时期,你所能拥有的最佳投资,让你很容易在政府的迂回曲折政策中领先。
说到领先,亿万富翁大举买入领先的证券公司。有了今天闪电般快速的交易算法,打败市场的唯一方法就是比机器早一秒完成交易。当你拥有证券公司的时候很容易做到。
违法吗?法律是为小老百姓而设。
百万富翁们购买硬而实用的资产(如房地产),并通过固定利率抵押贷款对其进行杠杆化。在通货膨胀期间,资产的价值和现金流将在很大程度上跟随通货膨胀率,而债务和债息将保持不变,实际上融掉了。

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James Quillian
First, billionaires benefit from inflation. The have all borrowed monumental sums of money. Inflation reduces the real amount of debt they have accumulated. That is better than an investment.
Also, while the public is aggressively buying stocks billionaires are liquidating.
This way they will have plenty of cash after the market crashes. Then they will invest in stocks again.
The public loves it being that way. Otherwise they would complain.
One other thing. Billionaires know when not to invest. In general, when the public is buying stocks, billionaires are not initiating any new investments. .

首先,亿万富翁受益于通货膨胀。他们都借了大笔的钱。通货膨胀减少了他们积累的实际债务。这比投资要好。
而与此同时,公众大举买入亿万富翁们正在清算的股票。
这样一来,他们在市场崩盘后就会有充足的现金。然后他们会再次投资股票。
公众喜欢这样。否则他们会抱怨。
另一方面。亿万富翁知道什么时候不投资。一般来说,当公众购买股票时,亿万富翁不会发起任何新的投资。

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Olamide Oseni
It is hard to miss inflation in the recent numbers, and maybe even more so, the fear that inflation is going to hang around a lot longer than the Federal Reserve and investors would like. You may see it at the pump, in food prices, or the housing market, and for those who follow stocks, you definitely hear about it in the billionaire investor talking points Warren Buffett, not fond of short-term calls on the economy or market, had plenty to say earlier in his career about what inflation can do to stock market wealth. Buffett's view of inflation was heavily influenced by the runaway inflation of the 1970s. "Inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures," he wrote in 1977. "The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital. ...If you feel you can dance in and out of securities in a way that defeats the inflation tax, I would like to be your broker but not your partner."

从最近的数据来看,人们很难忽视通胀,对通胀持续时间将比美联储和投资者所希望的时间长得多的担忧或许更令人担忧。你可能会在加油站、食品价格或房地产市场上看到通胀,而对于那些关注股市的人来说,你肯定会在亿万富翁投资者的谈话中听到通胀。沃伦·巴菲特不喜欢对经济或市场进行短期预测,他在职业生涯早期曾多次谈到通胀会对股市财富造成什么影响。巴菲特对通胀的看法深受20世纪70年代失控的通胀的影响。他在1977年写道:“通货膨胀是一种比我们的立法机构颁布的任何税收都更具破坏性的税收。”“通货膨胀税有一种神奇的能力,可以严重地消耗资本……如果你觉得你能以一种击败通货膨胀税的方式进出证券市场,我愿意做你的经纪人,而不是你的合伙人。”

What the billionaires think and do is pretty far from lining up with the investment reality of most individuals, so to take it down a few zeroes, what are wealthy do-it-yourself investors — individuals with at least $1 million in a brokerage account that they manage on their own — thinking right now? They are increasingly worried, too, according to a survey from Morgan Stanley's E-Trade Financial of millionaire investors provided exclusively to CNBC. According to the quarterly E-Trade data, these wealthy investors have not been this concerned about their stock market holdings or the economy since Q2 2020, right after the March 2020 Covid crash and shutdown of the U.S. economy “We're definitely seeing a downtick in optimism," said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. "They are starting to see some cracks in the economic recovery and it's dampening bullishness." More of the wealthy still describe themselves as bullish, but just barely, with that indicator dropping from 65% in Q3 2021 to 52% in the current quarter. That's the lowest level of bullishness since Q2 2020. The E-Trade survey was conducted October 8 to October 16 among 119 investors with $1 million or more of investable asset. Last quarter, 72% of these wealthy investors said inflation was "transitory," supporting the Fed view. That has now fallen to 53%. Those who "strongly disagree" with the Fed's transitory view increased from 9% to 19%. Inflation has been a concern all year, but "while it isn't new, it is a lot stickier," Loewengart said.

亿万富翁的想法和行为与大多数个人的投资现实相去甚远,那么,去掉几个零,那些富有的自己动手的投资者——那些在自己管理的经纪账户中拥有至少100万美元的个人——现在是怎么想的?根据摩根士丹利旗下《亿创理财》针对百万富翁投资者的一项调查,他们也越来越担心,该调查只提供给CNBC。根据《亿创理财》的季度数据,自2020年第二季度以来,这些富有的投资者还没有像现在这样担心他们的股市持股或经济,在2020年3月美国经济因新冠肺炎疫情崩溃和关闭后,《亿创理财》投资战略董事总经理迈克·罗文加特表示:“我们确实看到了乐观情绪的下降。”“他们开始看到经济复苏出现一些裂缝,这抑制了看涨情绪。”更多的富人仍然认为自己很乐观,但也只是勉强乐观,这一指标从2021年第三季度的65%降至本季度的52%。这是自2020年第二季度以来的最低水平。《亿创》于10月8日至16日对119名可投资资产超过100万美元的投资者进行了调查。上个季度,这些富有的投资者中有72%认为通货膨胀是“暂时的”,这支持了美联储的观点。现在这一比例降到了53%。“强烈反对”美联储短期观点的人从9%上升到19%。今年以来,通胀一直是一个令人担忧的问题,但罗文加特说:“虽然通胀不是什么新鲜事,但这次要难应付得多。”

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Terry Denton
During any economic crisis, the very wealthy as a group don't have any better grasp on how to maintain assets than the middle class, they simply have more assets and by spreading it out they are less likely to be wiped out.
The very wealthy like Joe Kennedy is said to have done in the 1920s got out the stock market early, and began smuggling booze early during prohibition, both of which were quiet different than most other millionaires did, which put him in a position to buy when others were selling other assets.
Whether by plan or by stupid ass luck some wealthy and even middle class investors make the correct move at every turn. We see all the broke middle class investors after a down turn, and we see the zillionaires who had their money in the correct places. We rarely hear about the rich who made mostly poor decisions.
If there was a consensus among the rich as to where to put their money, it would be easy for the Meer mortals to just mimic their moves, but since there is no universal strategy employed.

在任何经济危机期间,作为一个群体,非常富有的人并不比中产阶级更懂得如何保持资产,他们只是拥有更多的资产,通过分散资产,他们不太可能被彻底摧毁。
据说,像乔·肯尼迪这样的大富豪在20世纪20年代很早就退出了股市,并在禁酒令期间早早开始走私酒,这两种做法与大多数其他百万富翁的做法截然不同,这使他能够在别人抛售其他资产时买入。
无论是靠计划还是靠运气,一些富有的甚至是中产阶级的投资者在每一个转折点都能做出正确的选择。我们看到所有在经济低迷后破产的中产阶级投资者,我们看到亿万富翁把他们的钱放在正确的地方。我们很少听说富人做了很多糟糕的决定。
如果富人对把钱放在哪里有共识,普通人就很容易进行模仿,但从来没有通用的策略。

The name of the game is to preserve as many assets as possible and remain in a position to invest in things that become clear bargains. With high inflation anything to do with cash is probably a bad idea, and maintaining the value of your assets is goal one. But real estate and such investments may have over valued prices on them, so selling and buying back later may be best, but what to do with the cash so it isn't eaten up while you wait.
Gold and silver is thought if as a hedge but those are subject to volatility as well and may be better hedges in one event than in another.
The answer is even the rich fly by the seat of their pants to some extent through every crisis, but because they have so much more to begin with ,they can make some bad decisions and still survive, and should they risk it all and hit they look like money gods.
Those who became the very wealthiest among us due to getting into computers early on were not making financial decisions with the intent of becoming the very wealthiest, they simply saw computers as the coming thing and were good at building them. There were computer nerds in the 70s that are drawing social security now because they were good at computers but made poor financial decisions or at least didn't make lucky choices.

这个游戏的目的就是尽可能多地保存资产,并保持投资于明显便宜的东西的地位。在高通胀的情况下,任何与现金有关的事情都可能是一个坏主意,保持资产的价值是你的目标之一。但房地产和此类投资的价格可能被高估了,因此,稍后再出售和回购可能是最好的,但要如何使用这些现金,才不会在你等待的时候被吃掉。
黄金和白银被视为一种保值措施,但它们也会受到波动的影响,在一种情况下可能比在另一种情况下是更好的保值措施。
答案是,即使是富人也会在一定程度上依靠自己的直觉度过每一次危机,但因为他们有更多的东西可以开始,他们会做出一些错误的决定,但仍然存活下来,如果他们豁出去了并成功了,他们就会看起来如同财神。
那些因为早期接触电脑而成为我们中间最富有的人,他们在做财务决定时并没有想成为最富有的人,他们仅仅是将电脑视为即将到来的事物,并擅长制造它们。70年代的电脑宅男现在都在领社保,因为他们擅长电脑,但却做出了糟糕的财务决策,或者至少没有做出幸运的选择。

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Travis Field
First, billionaires don’t invest in art or let scam artists like Masterworks steal their money regardless of inflation. Masterworks is like smallpox - it should be avoided all costs.
Art is a TERRIBLE investment at any level. It has negative cash flows and extraordinary costs (storage, security, transportation, insurance, transaction.
Don’t be the fool at the table by letting Masterworks take your “dumb money.”
If Masterworks was a legitimate investment vehicle, it wouldn’t be advertising on Quora. Rather, it would reach out directly to accredited investors.

首先,不管通货膨胀如何,亿万富翁不会投资于艺术品,也不会让Masterworks这样的骗子偷走他们的钱。
Masterworks就像天花,要不惜一切代价避开。
在任何层面上,艺术都是一项糟糕的投资。它有负现金流和额外的成本(储存、安全、运输、保险、交易)。
不要在饭桌上犯傻,让Masterworks拿走你的“傻钱”。
如果Masterworks是一个合法的投资工具,它就不会在Quora上做广告。相反,它将直接接触合格投资者。

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Profile photo for Nigel Glenday
Elon Musk, the world's richest person, revealed his strategy this week for investing alongside record inflation.
According to the WSJ, since February 2020, the Fed increased the nation’s money supply by a staggering 40%. To some experts, it explains why the U.S. is experiencing its highest inflation rate since 1982.
The Tesla and SpaceX founder told investors, in his experience, it’s “better to own physical things than dollars when inflation is high.” That’s especially shocking from Musk, who has historically impassionately supported cryptocurrencies and other digital goods.
The “physical goods” he mentioned could include oil, metals, and grains, which have all soared in prices…

世界上最富有的人埃隆·马斯克本周透露了他的投资策略,目的是应对创纪录的通胀。
据《华尔街日报》报道,自2020年2月以来,美联储将美国的货币供应量增加了惊人的40%。对一些专家来说,这解释了为什么美国正在经历1982年以来的最高通胀率。
这位特斯拉和SpaceX的创始人告诉投资者,根据他的经验,“在通货膨胀高的时候,持有实物比持有美元更好。”这对马斯克来说尤其令人震惊,他一直热情支持加密货币和其他数字产品。
他提到的“实物商品”可能包括石油、金属和谷物,这些商品的价格都在飙升……

But there’s another physical asset that billionaires have historically been stocking up on: fine art. In fact, according to Deloitte, over 61% of the ultra-wealthy diversify their portfolio with art. Here are a few possible reasons:
Contemporary art prices outpaced the S&P 500 by more than 2.5x (1995-2021).
Contemporary art historically returns 23.2% each year, on average, when inflation is at least 3% (like it is right now).
It has a low correlation to public equities of any major asset class, according to Citi.
Normally, it’s impossible for everyday investors to buy blue-chip art because it often costs tens of millions of dollars for a single work. But thanks to changing regulations, companies like Masterworks are now able to have nearly anyone be an investor in artworks via crowdfunding.
Since launching in 2019, Masterworks has…
Grown to 357,000+ users
More than $500,000,000 in assets under management
Been featured in the WSJ, NY Times, Blomberg, CNBC, and plenty others.
To learn more and see past offerings which include Monet, KAWS, and Basquiat, sign up for a free Masterworks membership right here.

但亿万富翁历来都在囤积另一种实物资产:艺术品。事实上,根据德勤的调查,超过61%的超级富豪通过艺术品来分散投资组合。以下是一些可能的原因:
1995-2021年,当代艺术品价格涨幅超过标准普尔500指数(S&P 500) 2.5倍。
历史上,当通货膨胀率至少为3%时(就像现在),当代艺术的平均回报率为每年23.2%。
花旗表示,它与任何主要资产类别的公开股票的相关性都很低。
通常情况下,普通投资者不可能购买蓝筹股艺术品,因为一件作品的价格往往高达数千万美元。但由于法规的变化,像Masterworks这样的公司现在可以通过众筹让几乎任何人都成为艺术品投资者。
自2019年推出以来,Masterworks已经……
增长到357,000+用户
管理资产超过5亿美元
《华尔街日报》《纽约时报》《彭博社》《CNBC》等多家媒体都曾报道过。
要了解更多和看昔日的产品,包括莫奈,卡伍斯和巴斯奎特,在这里注册成为一个免费的Masterworks会员。

原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


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