网民讨论：美国消费者开始减少旅行和餐馆支出
正文翻译
Americans are starting to pull back on travel and restaurants
By Abha Bhattarai, The Washington Post
Published: June 18, 2022
美国消费者开始减少旅行和餐馆支出
发表于《华盛顿邮报》
作者：艾卜哈·巴塔拉依
发表时间：2022 年 6 月 18 日
Americans are starting to pull back on travel and restaurants
By Abha Bhattarai, The Washington Post
Published: June 18, 2022
美国消费者开始减少旅行和餐馆支出
发表于《华盛顿邮报》
作者：艾卜哈·巴塔拉依
发表时间：2022 年 6 月 18 日
More Americans are beginning to hold off on booking flights, getting haircuts, building backyard pools and replacing old leaky roofs - in some of the new signs that the consumer engine of U.S. economic growth could be losing steam.Q
Over the past several weeks, households had already cut back on big-ticket purchase because of soaring prices, but in a worrisome twist, data suggests consumers are also beginning to tap the brakes on dining out, vacation plans and even routine services like manicures, hair cuts and home-cleaning appointments. Business owners around the country say rising prices, dwindling savings and concerns of a souring economy are taking a toll on household spending decisions.
At Olentangy Maids in Columbus, Ohio, more customers are putting off or canceling home-cleaning appointments. Some regulars are trying to negotiate lower prices, while others have stopped tipping altogether, entrepreneur Keith Troyer said.
越来越多的美国人开始推迟预订航班、理发、建造后院游泳池和更换漏水的旧屋顶等等——这些新迹象表明，美国经济增长的消费引擎可能正在失去动力。
在过去的几周里，由于价格飙升，家庭已经减少了大件商品的购买，但令人担忧的是，数据显示消费者也开始在外出就餐、理发和家庭保洁预约、外出度假计划甚至美容美甲等日常服务上踩刹车。全国各地的企业主表示，物价上涨、储蓄减少以及对经济恶化的担忧正在影响家庭的消费支出决策。
俄亥俄州哥伦布市的奥兰滕吉家居服务公司表示，越来越多的顾客推迟或取消了家庭清洁预约。公司老板凯斯·特耶说，一些常客正试图通过谈判降低服务价格，而有些人则干脆完全拒绝付小费。
Over the past several weeks, households had already cut back on big-ticket purchase because of soaring prices, but in a worrisome twist, data suggests consumers are also beginning to tap the brakes on dining out, vacation plans and even routine services like manicures, hair cuts and home-cleaning appointments. Business owners around the country say rising prices, dwindling savings and concerns of a souring economy are taking a toll on household spending decisions.
At Olentangy Maids in Columbus, Ohio, more customers are putting off or canceling home-cleaning appointments. Some regulars are trying to negotiate lower prices, while others have stopped tipping altogether, entrepreneur Keith Troyer said.
越来越多的美国人开始推迟预订航班、理发、建造后院游泳池和更换漏水的旧屋顶等等——这些新迹象表明，美国经济增长的消费引擎可能正在失去动力。
在过去的几周里，由于价格飙升，家庭已经减少了大件商品的购买，但令人担忧的是，数据显示消费者也开始在外出就餐、理发和家庭保洁预约、外出度假计划甚至美容美甲等日常服务上踩刹车。全国各地的企业主表示，物价上涨、储蓄减少以及对经济恶化的担忧正在影响家庭的消费支出决策。
俄亥俄州哥伦布市的奥兰滕吉家居服务公司表示，越来越多的顾客推迟或取消了家庭清洁预约。公司老板凯斯·特耶说，一些常客正试图通过谈判降低服务价格，而有些人则干脆完全拒绝付小费。
“It hasn’t been a massive drop off, but enough that it’s been noticeable,” Troyer said. “Quite a few clients have called saying, ‘Hey, my wife got laid off. We need to cancel,’ or ‘Can I switch from biweekly to monthly?’ Prior to this month, that’s something that hardly happened.”
Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, has held strong through April even with inflation at historic highs. But there are growing signs that the spending streak could be ending.
Retail sales slowed last month for the first time this year, driven by a 4% drop in car sales. U.S. flight bookings dipped 2.3% in May from a month earlier, according to data from Adobe Analytics. And both high- and low-income Americans have begun pulling back, particularly on services, in the past four to six weeks, according to an analysis of credit card data by Barclays. The slowdown in spending is now concentrated in services, not goods, the bank found in a new analysis of credit card data.
“这还没有大幅度下降，但足以引起人们的注意，”特耶先生说。“不少客户打来电话说，‘嘿，我的妻子失业了。我们需要取消（服务预约），”或者“我可以从两周一次切换到每月一次吗？” 在这个月之前，这是几乎没有发生过的事情。
占美国经济三分之二以上的消费者支出在 4 月份一直保持强劲，即使通胀处于历史高位。但越来越多的迹象表明，这种上升趋势可能即将结束。
受汽车销量下降 4% 的推动，上个月商品零售销售额今年首次出现放缓。根据 Adobe 分析系统提供的数据，5 月份全美国航班的预订量较上月下降了2.3%。根据巴克莱银行对信用卡数据的分析，在过去的四到六周里，无论是高收入还是低收入的美国消费者都开始收缩开支，尤其是在服务方面。该银行在对信用卡数据的新分析中发现，支出放缓目前集中在服务而非商品上。
Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, has held strong through April even with inflation at historic highs. But there are growing signs that the spending streak could be ending.
Retail sales slowed last month for the first time this year, driven by a 4% drop in car sales. U.S. flight bookings dipped 2.3% in May from a month earlier, according to data from Adobe Analytics. And both high- and low-income Americans have begun pulling back, particularly on services, in the past four to six weeks, according to an analysis of credit card data by Barclays. The slowdown in spending is now concentrated in services, not goods, the bank found in a new analysis of credit card data.
“这还没有大幅度下降，但足以引起人们的注意，”特耶先生说。“不少客户打来电话说，‘嘿，我的妻子失业了。我们需要取消（服务预约），”或者“我可以从两周一次切换到每月一次吗？” 在这个月之前，这是几乎没有发生过的事情。
占美国经济三分之二以上的消费者支出在 4 月份一直保持强劲，即使通胀处于历史高位。但越来越多的迹象表明，这种上升趋势可能即将结束。
受汽车销量下降 4% 的推动，上个月商品零售销售额今年首次出现放缓。根据 Adobe 分析系统提供的数据，5 月份全美国航班的预订量较上月下降了2.3%。根据巴克莱银行对信用卡数据的分析，在过去的四到六周里，无论是高收入还是低收入的美国消费者都开始收缩开支，尤其是在服务方面。该银行在对信用卡数据的新分析中发现，支出放缓目前集中在服务而非商品上。
“All through 2022, the narrative has been that as COVID faded, households would ramp up spending on services,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note this week. “And indeed, that narrative has been true for much of this year. But . . . services spending seems to be slowing considerably.”
Spending on services like travel and restaurants, which was growing more than 30% from 2021 rates this year, has now slowed to half that pace, according to the Barclays analysis.
Customers at Salon Simis in Fairfax, Va., have begun cutting back in new ways. Clients who used to come in every four weeks are now going 12 weeks in between appointments, owner Ahmet Sim said. Others are bargaining for lower prices or opting for partial treatments instead of highlights all over. Overall sales are down 20% from a year ago. Average tips have also fallen, from about 20% to 10%.
巴克莱银行的分析师本周在一份报告中写道：“整个 2022 年，人们一直认为随着 COVID疫情的消退，家庭将增加服务支出。”“事实上，这种说法在今年的大部分时间里都是真实的。但是 . . . 服务性支出现在似乎正在出现大幅度的减缓。”
根据巴克莱银行的分析，旅游和餐饮等服务性支出 2021 年的增长率超过了30%，今年以来到目前已经放缓至该速度的一半。
弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯的Simis美容沙龙的顾客们已经开始以新的方式削减开支。店主阿赫麦特·西姆说，过去每 4 周来一次的客户现在两次预约之间的间隔达到了 12 周。其他人则在讨价还价或选择局部护理而不是整个套餐。整体销售额比前一年下降了20%。小费的平均额也有所下降，从大约 20% 下降到 10%。
Spending on services like travel and restaurants, which was growing more than 30% from 2021 rates this year, has now slowed to half that pace, according to the Barclays analysis.
Customers at Salon Simis in Fairfax, Va., have begun cutting back in new ways. Clients who used to come in every four weeks are now going 12 weeks in between appointments, owner Ahmet Sim said. Others are bargaining for lower prices or opting for partial treatments instead of highlights all over. Overall sales are down 20% from a year ago. Average tips have also fallen, from about 20% to 10%.
巴克莱银行的分析师本周在一份报告中写道：“整个 2022 年，人们一直认为随着 COVID疫情的消退，家庭将增加服务支出。”“事实上，这种说法在今年的大部分时间里都是真实的。但是 . . . 服务性支出现在似乎正在出现大幅度的减缓。”
根据巴克莱银行的分析，旅游和餐饮等服务性支出 2021 年的增长率超过了30%，今年以来到目前已经放缓至该速度的一半。
弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯的Simis美容沙龙的顾客们已经开始以新的方式削减开支。店主阿赫麦特·西姆说，过去每 4 周来一次的客户现在两次预约之间的间隔达到了 12 周。其他人则在讨价还价或选择局部护理而不是整个套餐。整体销售额比前一年下降了20%。小费的平均额也有所下降，从大约 20% 下降到 10%。
“Just in the last month, I’ve started noticing that clients are bargaining like crazy,” Sim said. “They’ll say, ‘My bill is usually $500 for color and highlights. What can you do to reduce it?’ "
He tries to work with them, he said, by using lower-priced color lines or passing blow drying services to less-experienced stylists. But he’s feeling the pinch of inflation, too: Boxes of disposable gloves have gone from $7 to nearly $25 in two years. Hair dyes that used to cost $25 are now closer to $40. Sim raised prices during the pandemic, once, but he’s worried another markup would alienate more customers.
“People are cutting back left and right,” he said. “They’re saying, ‘I’m sorry. I can’t afford this anymore.’ "
“就在上个月，我开始注意到客户们正在疯狂讨价还价，”西姆说。“她们会说，‘我的头发换色和挑染的账单通常能到 500 美元。你能做点什么来降低它吗？"
他说，他试图与客户们合作，通过使用价格较低的染色剂或是将吹风服务交给刚入门不久的造型师处理。但他也感受到了通货膨胀的压力：一盒一次性手套在两年内从 7 美元涨到了近 25 美元。过去25美元的染发剂现在接近 40 美元。西姆在疫情大流行期间曾提高过一次价格，但他担心再次加价会疏远更多客户。
“人们正在左支右绌，”他说。“她们说，‘对不起。我再也负担不起了。"
He tries to work with them, he said, by using lower-priced color lines or passing blow drying services to less-experienced stylists. But he’s feeling the pinch of inflation, too: Boxes of disposable gloves have gone from $7 to nearly $25 in two years. Hair dyes that used to cost $25 are now closer to $40. Sim raised prices during the pandemic, once, but he’s worried another markup would alienate more customers.
“People are cutting back left and right,” he said. “They’re saying, ‘I’m sorry. I can’t afford this anymore.’ "
“就在上个月，我开始注意到客户们正在疯狂讨价还价，”西姆说。“她们会说，‘我的头发换色和挑染的账单通常能到 500 美元。你能做点什么来降低它吗？"
他说，他试图与客户们合作，通过使用价格较低的染色剂或是将吹风服务交给刚入门不久的造型师处理。但他也感受到了通货膨胀的压力：一盒一次性手套在两年内从 7 美元涨到了近 25 美元。过去25美元的染发剂现在接近 40 美元。西姆在疫情大流行期间曾提高过一次价格，但他担心再次加价会疏远更多客户。
“人们正在左支右绌，”他说。“她们说，‘对不起。我再也负担不起了。"
These early signs of slowdown across a broad range of products and industries, including travel and restaurants, challenge the notion that Americans have simply shifted their spending from goods to services. The hope until now had been that after two years of stocking up on products like cars, furniture and appliances, Americans would splurge more on vacations, dining out, manicures and other services they’d mostly put off for much of the pandemic.
Meanwhile, one benchmark showed growth in the U.S. services industry slowed in May to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a closely watched index from the Institute for Supply Management.
“The goods side [of spending] is definitely weakening, but if you look closely, services are, too,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab. “Restaurant sales have eased, travel-related spending is weakening. The weight on the consumer is becoming too much - whether because of inflation or other factors - and that’s across income groups.”
包括旅游和餐饮在内的众多产品和行业都出现了疲软的早期迹象，挑战了美国人只会将支出从商品转向服务的观念。迄今为止的希望是，在大肆购买汽车、家具和电器等商品两年后，美国消费者会在度假、外出就餐、美容和其他服务性支出上挥霍更多，而他们在大流行的大部分时间里都推迟了这些服务。
与此同时，根据供应管理协会密切关注的一项基准指数，5 月份美国服务业的增长已经放缓至 2021年2月以来的最低水平。
嘉信理财高级投资研究经理凯文·戈登表示：“商品的（支出）方面肯定在减弱，但如果仔细观察，服务性支出其实也在减弱。”“餐厅销售有所下降，与旅行相关的支出正在减弱。无论是由于通货膨胀还是其他因素，对消费者的影响越来越大，而且这涉及到各个收入群体。”
Meanwhile, one benchmark showed growth in the U.S. services industry slowed in May to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a closely watched index from the Institute for Supply Management.
“The goods side [of spending] is definitely weakening, but if you look closely, services are, too,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab. “Restaurant sales have eased, travel-related spending is weakening. The weight on the consumer is becoming too much - whether because of inflation or other factors - and that’s across income groups.”
包括旅游和餐饮在内的众多产品和行业都出现了疲软的早期迹象，挑战了美国人只会将支出从商品转向服务的观念。迄今为止的希望是，在大肆购买汽车、家具和电器等商品两年后，美国消费者会在度假、外出就餐、美容和其他服务性支出上挥霍更多，而他们在大流行的大部分时间里都推迟了这些服务。
与此同时，根据供应管理协会密切关注的一项基准指数，5 月份美国服务业的增长已经放缓至 2021年2月以来的最低水平。
嘉信理财高级投资研究经理凯文·戈登表示：“商品的（支出）方面肯定在减弱，但如果仔细观察，服务性支出其实也在减弱。”“餐厅销售有所下降，与旅行相关的支出正在减弱。无论是由于通货膨胀还是其他因素，对消费者的影响越来越大，而且这涉及到各个收入群体。”
Overall, flight searches on booking site Kayak are down an average 13% so far this month, compared with the same period in pre-pandemic 2019. Restaurant dining data from the reservation platform Open Table, meanwhile, shows that the number of people eating at restaurants fell 11% in the week ending June 16, compared with the same week in 2019.
While low-income families have been hardest-hit by inflation, higher-income households are also beginning to cut back, especially as they watch investments - from stock portfolios to homes - lose value, Gordon said. Household wealth fell for the first time in two years in the most recent quarter, in large part because of a $3 trillion plunge in the stock values, Federal Reserve data shows.
The markets continued their volatile descent this week, with three major stock indexes deepening losses for the year and the S&P 500 index closing out its worst week since March 2020.
总体而言，本月到目前为止，机票预订网站Kayak上的航班搜索量与 2019 年大流行前同期相比平均下降了 13%。与此同时，餐饮预订平台Open Table的餐厅用餐数据显示，在与 2019 年同一周相比，截至6月16日的一周内，餐厅预约数量下降了 11%。
戈登指出，虽然低收入家庭受到通货膨胀的打击最为严重，但高收入家庭也开始削减开支，尤其是在他们眼睁睁地看着投资——从股票投资组合到房屋——开始贬值时。美联储数据显示，最近一个季度家庭财富两年来首次下降，很大程度上是因为股票市值暴跌了3万亿美元。
本周市场继续震荡下跌，三大股指今年跌幅进一步扩大，标准普尔 500 指数收盘时是自从2020年3月以来最糟糕的一周。
While low-income families have been hardest-hit by inflation, higher-income households are also beginning to cut back, especially as they watch investments - from stock portfolios to homes - lose value, Gordon said. Household wealth fell for the first time in two years in the most recent quarter, in large part because of a $3 trillion plunge in the stock values, Federal Reserve data shows.
The markets continued their volatile descent this week, with three major stock indexes deepening losses for the year and the S&P 500 index closing out its worst week since March 2020.
总体而言，本月到目前为止，机票预订网站Kayak上的航班搜索量与 2019 年大流行前同期相比平均下降了 13%。与此同时，餐饮预订平台Open Table的餐厅用餐数据显示，在与 2019 年同一周相比，截至6月16日的一周内，餐厅预约数量下降了 11%。
戈登指出，虽然低收入家庭受到通货膨胀的打击最为严重，但高收入家庭也开始削减开支，尤其是在他们眼睁睁地看着投资——从股票投资组合到房屋——开始贬值时。美联储数据显示，最近一个季度家庭财富两年来首次下降，很大程度上是因为股票市值暴跌了3万亿美元。
本周市场继续震荡下跌，三大股指今年跌幅进一步扩大，标准普尔 500 指数收盘时是自从2020年3月以来最糟糕的一周。
At Posh Luxury Imports, a Los Angeles car dealership that also rents high-end vehicles, owner Omar McGee said both consumer demand and their credit scores are markedly lower than six weeks ago.
“I see more credit problems,” McGee said. “More people have maxed-out cards or have fallen behind on payments. At the end of the day, that means people have to be much more cautious about their spending.”
Credit card debt, which nosedived during the pandemic as Americans used government stimulus to pay down balances, has rebounded to all-time highs. As of June 1, Americans had $868 billion in consumer debt, up nearly 16% from last year, according to Fed data.
在经营高端汽车出租的洛杉矶汽车经销商“ 进口豪华奢侈品”的老板奥马尔·麦吉表示，消费者的需求和他们的信用评分都明显低于六周前。
“我看到更多的信用问题，”麦基说。“越来越多的人刷卡或拖欠付款。归根结底，这意味着人们必须对自己的支出更加谨慎。”
由于美国人利用政府刺激措施偿还余额，信用卡债务在大流行期间急剧下降，现已反弹至历史高位。根据美联储的数据，截至6月1日，美国人的消费性债务达8680亿美元，比去年增长近 16%。
“I see more credit problems,” McGee said. “More people have maxed-out cards or have fallen behind on payments. At the end of the day, that means people have to be much more cautious about their spending.”
Credit card debt, which nosedived during the pandemic as Americans used government stimulus to pay down balances, has rebounded to all-time highs. As of June 1, Americans had $868 billion in consumer debt, up nearly 16% from last year, according to Fed data.
在经营高端汽车出租的洛杉矶汽车经销商“ 进口豪华奢侈品”的老板奥马尔·麦吉表示，消费者的需求和他们的信用评分都明显低于六周前。
“我看到更多的信用问题，”麦基说。“越来越多的人刷卡或拖欠付款。归根结底，这意味着人们必须对自己的支出更加谨慎。”
由于美国人利用政府刺激措施偿还余额，信用卡债务在大流行期间急剧下降，现已反弹至历史高位。根据美联储的数据，截至6月1日，美国人的消费性债务达8680亿美元，比去年增长近 16%。
And while the wealthiest continue to rent Lamborghinis and Bentleys, McGee said there has been a notable decline in the number of tourists opting for high-end rentals.
“I can tell that traveling is down, the tourism is down,” he said. “A lot of higher-middle-class customers used to come into town and splurge, but you can see that dropping pretty dramatically.”
That consumer hesitation follows months of inflation at 40 year highs. Prices have risen 8.6% in the past year, driving up costs for a range of essentials, including gas, which reached a record of $5 per gallon.
虽然最富有的客户仍在继续租用兰博基尼和宾利，但麦基表示，选择租赁高端豪车的游客数量出现了明显下降。
他说：“我可以说旅行人数正在下降，旅游业正在下降。” “过去有很多中上阶层的顾客来城里挥霍，但你可以看到这种情况急剧下降。”
消费者的犹豫是在通货膨胀数月来达到了近40年的高位之后出现的。过去一年价格上涨了 8.6%，推高了包括汽油在内的一系列必需品的成本，达到了每加仑5美元的创纪录水平。
“I can tell that traveling is down, the tourism is down,” he said. “A lot of higher-middle-class customers used to come into town and splurge, but you can see that dropping pretty dramatically.”
That consumer hesitation follows months of inflation at 40 year highs. Prices have risen 8.6% in the past year, driving up costs for a range of essentials, including gas, which reached a record of $5 per gallon.
虽然最富有的客户仍在继续租用兰博基尼和宾利，但麦基表示，选择租赁高端豪车的游客数量出现了明显下降。
他说：“我可以说旅行人数正在下降，旅游业正在下降。” “过去有很多中上阶层的顾客来城里挥霍，但你可以看到这种情况急剧下降。”
消费者的犹豫是在通货膨胀数月来达到了近40年的高位之后出现的。过去一年价格上涨了 8.6%，推高了包括汽油在内的一系列必需品的成本，达到了每加仑5美元的创纪录水平。
The biggest bright spot in the economy remains the strong jobs market, with the unemployment rate at a pandemic low of 3.6%. Demand for workers neared record highs in April, with about twice as many openings than job seekers. Weekly claims for unemployment insurance have recently begun to creep up, but they are far lower than they had been during most of the pandemic.
With workers still able to find jobs, the Fed made a sharper move this week to hike interest rates by three-fourths of a percentage point in hopes of cooling the economy enough to curb inflation without tipping it into recession. Despite the central bank’s assurances that it can pull off a “soft landing,” businesses and households are increasingly worried about the state of the economy as well as their personal finances. Indeed, U.S. consumer sentiment plummeted this month to its lowest level on record, according to an index by the University of Michigan.
“The consumer is coming under stress,” said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at mortgage giant Fannie Mae, who expects a recession next year. “We see that in decreasing retail sales and in rising credit card usage. We don’t expect things to fall apart immediately, though. It’ll be a slower decline.”
经济中最大的亮点仍然是强劲的就业市场，失业率处于大流行的低点-3.6%。4 月份对人工的需求接近历史新高，职位空缺是求职者的两倍。最近每周申请失业保险的人数开始攀升，但仍远低于大流行期间的水平。
由于工人们仍然能够找到工作，美联储本周采取了更为激进的举措，将利率提高了0.75个百分点，以期使经济冷却到足以抑制通胀而不使其陷入衰退的程度。尽管央行保证可以实现“软着陆”，但企业和家庭越来越担心经济状况及其个人财务状况。事实上，根据密歇根大学的一项指数，美国消费者信心本月跌至有记录以来的最低水平。
“消费者正面临压力，”抵押贷款巨头房利美的首席经济学家道格拉斯·邓肯说，他预计明年会出现衰退。“我们看到零售额下降和信用卡使用量的增加。不过，我们并不指望事情会立即崩溃。这将是一个较为缓慢的下降过程。”
With workers still able to find jobs, the Fed made a sharper move this week to hike interest rates by three-fourths of a percentage point in hopes of cooling the economy enough to curb inflation without tipping it into recession. Despite the central bank’s assurances that it can pull off a “soft landing,” businesses and households are increasingly worried about the state of the economy as well as their personal finances. Indeed, U.S. consumer sentiment plummeted this month to its lowest level on record, according to an index by the University of Michigan.
“The consumer is coming under stress,” said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at mortgage giant Fannie Mae, who expects a recession next year. “We see that in decreasing retail sales and in rising credit card usage. We don’t expect things to fall apart immediately, though. It’ll be a slower decline.”
经济中最大的亮点仍然是强劲的就业市场，失业率处于大流行的低点-3.6%。4 月份对人工的需求接近历史新高，职位空缺是求职者的两倍。最近每周申请失业保险的人数开始攀升，但仍远低于大流行期间的水平。
由于工人们仍然能够找到工作，美联储本周采取了更为激进的举措，将利率提高了0.75个百分点，以期使经济冷却到足以抑制通胀而不使其陷入衰退的程度。尽管央行保证可以实现“软着陆”，但企业和家庭越来越担心经济状况及其个人财务状况。事实上，根据密歇根大学的一项指数，美国消费者信心本月跌至有记录以来的最低水平。
“消费者正面临压力，”抵押贷款巨头房利美的首席经济学家道格拉斯·邓肯说，他预计明年会出现衰退。“我们看到零售额下降和信用卡使用量的增加。不过，我们并不指望事情会立即崩溃。这将是一个较为缓慢的下降过程。”
Indeed, small businesses nationwide are reporting small signs of customers pulling back. Morehead Pools, which specializes in luxury backyard pools in Louisiana, is booked through next summer, according to chief executive Michael Moore. But in a sign that higher-income consumers may be thinking twice before splurging, new queries are down 30% so far this year.
“Once you get past $4 [per gallon of gas], everybody’s feeling it at the pump and they’re not making enough on the front end to overcome that,” Moore said in an analyst call hosted by Jefferies this week. “The cost of energy and inflation and then the cost of money . . . that’s really going to pull back demand in our sector.”
Noffke Roofing in Mequon, Wis., has seen insatiable demand during the pandemic. But lately, economic jitters are leading many customers to patch up their roofs instead of replacing them. Many are also trading down to cheaper materials, like shingles made of asphalt instead of cedar.
“We’re definitely starting to see a pause,” president Ben Noffke said. “Customers are saying, ‘I know it’s time to get a new roof, but can we get a little more time out of this one?’ They’re thinking about their budgets a lot more.”
事实上，全国范围内的小企业都报告了客户需求缩减的蛛丝马迹。据路易斯安那州专门从事豪华后院游泳池业务的莫尔黑德泳池公司的首席执行官迈克尔·摩尔说，该公司的预约订单持续到了明年夏天，但一个迹象表明，高收入消费者在挥霍之前可能会三思而后行，今年到目前为止，新的消费者咨询量下降了 30%。
“一旦 （每加仑汽油）超过 4 美元，每个人都会在加油时感受到它，而他们在前端的收入不足以克服这一点，”摩尔在本周由杰富瑞投资银行主持的分析师电话会议中表示。“能源成本和通货膨胀，然后是资金成本......这肯定将会拉低我们行业的需求。”
威斯康星州梅库恩市的诺夫克屋面维修公司在大流行期间出现了无法满足的订单需求。但最近，经济紧张导致许多客户选择对屋顶进行修补而不是更换整个屋顶。许多人还转而使用更便宜的材料，例如用沥青代替雪松制成的带状屋面瓦。
“我们肯定已经开始看到（消费）暂停了，”该公司的总裁本·诺夫克说。“客户说，‘我知道是时候换一个新屋顶了，但我们还能从现在这个屋顶上多花点时间吗？’ 他们现在更多考虑的是他们的预算。”
“Once you get past $4 [per gallon of gas], everybody’s feeling it at the pump and they’re not making enough on the front end to overcome that,” Moore said in an analyst call hosted by Jefferies this week. “The cost of energy and inflation and then the cost of money . . . that’s really going to pull back demand in our sector.”
Noffke Roofing in Mequon, Wis., has seen insatiable demand during the pandemic. But lately, economic jitters are leading many customers to patch up their roofs instead of replacing them. Many are also trading down to cheaper materials, like shingles made of asphalt instead of cedar.
“We’re definitely starting to see a pause,” president Ben Noffke said. “Customers are saying, ‘I know it’s time to get a new roof, but can we get a little more time out of this one?’ They’re thinking about their budgets a lot more.”
事实上，全国范围内的小企业都报告了客户需求缩减的蛛丝马迹。据路易斯安那州专门从事豪华后院游泳池业务的莫尔黑德泳池公司的首席执行官迈克尔·摩尔说，该公司的预约订单持续到了明年夏天，但一个迹象表明，高收入消费者在挥霍之前可能会三思而后行，今年到目前为止，新的消费者咨询量下降了 30%。
“一旦 （每加仑汽油）超过 4 美元，每个人都会在加油时感受到它，而他们在前端的收入不足以克服这一点，”摩尔在本周由杰富瑞投资银行主持的分析师电话会议中表示。“能源成本和通货膨胀，然后是资金成本......这肯定将会拉低我们行业的需求。”
威斯康星州梅库恩市的诺夫克屋面维修公司在大流行期间出现了无法满足的订单需求。但最近，经济紧张导致许多客户选择对屋顶进行修补而不是更换整个屋顶。许多人还转而使用更便宜的材料，例如用沥青代替雪松制成的带状屋面瓦。
“我们肯定已经开始看到（消费）暂停了，”该公司的总裁本·诺夫克说。“客户说，‘我知道是时候换一个新屋顶了，但我们还能从现在这个屋顶上多花点时间吗？’ 他们现在更多考虑的是他们的预算。”
评论翻译
Puzzleheaded-Ring523
This isn’t a recovery this is the beginning of an inflationary depression. You should buy food and water and not think about vacations for awhile
这不是复苏，而是通货膨胀萧条的开始。你应该买食品和水，暂时不要考虑度假
This isn’t a recovery this is the beginning of an inflationary depression. You should buy food and water and not think about vacations for awhile
这不是复苏，而是通货膨胀萧条的开始。你应该买食品和水，暂时不要考虑度假
Lalalama
I’m in a lucky situation where I live in a decent sized American city with a subway (DC). I haven’t really noticed inflation actually as I don’t drive much and have a paid off home.
我很幸运，我住在一个体面的美国城市，有地铁(华盛顿特区) 。实际上，我并没有真正注意到通货膨胀，因为我很少开车，而且房子的贷款已经还清了。
I’m in a lucky situation where I live in a decent sized American city with a subway (DC). I haven’t really noticed inflation actually as I don’t drive much and have a paid off home.
我很幸运，我住在一个体面的美国城市，有地铁(华盛顿特区) 。实际上，我并没有真正注意到通货膨胀，因为我很少开车，而且房子的贷款已经还清了。
Dglacke
Just now? I've been noticing shrinkflation since early 2021, long before prices really got out of hand.
Why would I want to pay someone to prepare my food when the portions and quality are so low
现在？自 2021 年初以来，早在价格真正出现失控前，我就一直在注意到消费紧缩了。
当份量和质量都如此之低时，我为毛要花钱请别人为我准备食物？
Just now? I've been noticing shrinkflation since early 2021, long before prices really got out of hand.
Why would I want to pay someone to prepare my food when the portions and quality are so low
现在？自 2021 年初以来，早在价格真正出现失控前，我就一直在注意到消费紧缩了。
当份量和质量都如此之低时，我为毛要花钱请别人为我准备食物？
hermitess
During covid, all of the restaurants near me increased prices significantly, practically halved portion sizes, reduced quality, and started providing horrible, almost unforgivable service. Everyone felt sorry for restaurants for a while, and to keep these places in business, it became the expectation to tip 20% on takeout, even if they got the order wrong and didn't actually provide any service besides putting the food in a bag. I grew tired of that pretty quickly and stopped patronizing restaurants entirely. At this point I can easily make better food in half the time and for less than half the price at home.
在新冠疫情期间，我附近的所有餐馆都大幅涨价，而份量几乎减了半，质量普遍下降，并开始提供糟糕的、几乎无法原谅的服务。一时间大家都为餐厅感到难过，为了让这些地方继续营业，外卖的小费变成了20%，即使他们点错了。除了把食物放在袋子里，实际上并没有提供任何服务。我很快就厌倦了，完全停止光顾餐馆。在这一点上，我可以很容易地用一半的时间和不到一半的价格在家里做出更好的饭菜。
During covid, all of the restaurants near me increased prices significantly, practically halved portion sizes, reduced quality, and started providing horrible, almost unforgivable service. Everyone felt sorry for restaurants for a while, and to keep these places in business, it became the expectation to tip 20% on takeout, even if they got the order wrong and didn't actually provide any service besides putting the food in a bag. I grew tired of that pretty quickly and stopped patronizing restaurants entirely. At this point I can easily make better food in half the time and for less than half the price at home.
在新冠疫情期间，我附近的所有餐馆都大幅涨价，而份量几乎减了半，质量普遍下降，并开始提供糟糕的、几乎无法原谅的服务。一时间大家都为餐厅感到难过，为了让这些地方继续营业，外卖的小费变成了20%，即使他们点错了。除了把食物放在袋子里，实际上并没有提供任何服务。我很快就厌倦了，完全停止光顾餐馆。在这一点上，我可以很容易地用一半的时间和不到一半的价格在家里做出更好的饭菜。
Hyndis
I have noticed nearly all restaurants have much smaller menus now (often 10 or fewer items on the menu), portions are smaller, and quality is much lower.
They don't even give you a menu anymore. It seems bizarre to me that you can walk into a sit-down restaurant and they won't give you a menu, but that seems to be the trend.
Some places still provide good quality food, though finding them is an expensive trial and error process. Places that used to provide good quality food two years ago no longer do. Paying $25 for a mushy, tasteless burrito is an unpleasant experience.
Its also so expensive that I can make it at home myself. The ingredients for a burrito at home are a fraction of the price. Its not too difficult to make. I'm definitely eating out much less often these days. Its simply not worth it anymore.
我注意到现在几乎所有餐厅的菜单都少得多（菜单上通常只有 10 个或更少的项目），份量更少，质量也差多了。
他们甚至不再给你菜单了。对我来说，你走进一家可以坐下来用餐的餐厅，而他们不会给你提供菜单，这对我来说似乎很奇怪，但这似乎是趋势。
有些地方仍然提供优质饭菜，尽管找到它们是一个昂贵的试错过程。两年前曾经提供优质饭菜的地方已经不再提供了。为一个黏糊糊、食之无味的墨西哥卷饼花 25 美元并不是一种愉快的体验。
价格也很贵，我可以自己在家里做。在家做卷饼的原料只是价格的一小部分。制作起来并不难。这些天我出去用餐的次数肯定少了很多。它根本不值得。
I have noticed nearly all restaurants have much smaller menus now (often 10 or fewer items on the menu), portions are smaller, and quality is much lower.
They don't even give you a menu anymore. It seems bizarre to me that you can walk into a sit-down restaurant and they won't give you a menu, but that seems to be the trend.
Some places still provide good quality food, though finding them is an expensive trial and error process. Places that used to provide good quality food two years ago no longer do. Paying $25 for a mushy, tasteless burrito is an unpleasant experience.
Its also so expensive that I can make it at home myself. The ingredients for a burrito at home are a fraction of the price. Its not too difficult to make. I'm definitely eating out much less often these days. Its simply not worth it anymore.
我注意到现在几乎所有餐厅的菜单都少得多（菜单上通常只有 10 个或更少的项目），份量更少，质量也差多了。
他们甚至不再给你菜单了。对我来说，你走进一家可以坐下来用餐的餐厅，而他们不会给你提供菜单，这对我来说似乎很奇怪，但这似乎是趋势。
有些地方仍然提供优质饭菜，尽管找到它们是一个昂贵的试错过程。两年前曾经提供优质饭菜的地方已经不再提供了。为一个黏糊糊、食之无味的墨西哥卷饼花 25 美元并不是一种愉快的体验。
价格也很贵，我可以自己在家里做。在家做卷饼的原料只是价格的一小部分。制作起来并不难。这些天我出去用餐的次数肯定少了很多。它根本不值得。
kl131313
I feel exactly the same! We decided that if we want to go out it will be just for beer and maybe fries . I liked cooking even before Covid so we can eat quite well at home.
我的感受和你完全一样！ 我们决定，如果我们想出去吃饭，就只吃啤酒和薯条。 我甚至在 Covid流行前就喜欢在家做饭，所以我们可以在家里吃得很好。
I feel exactly the same! We decided that if we want to go out it will be just for beer and maybe fries . I liked cooking even before Covid so we can eat quite well at home.
我的感受和你完全一样！ 我们决定，如果我们想出去吃饭，就只吃啤酒和薯条。 我甚至在 Covid流行前就喜欢在家做饭，所以我们可以在家里吃得很好。
Ecsta
Can't hold rising prices (or shrinking portions) against them. Ingredients have all gone up in price significantly.
（餐馆）无法阻止价格的上涨（或是份量部分的萎缩）。 各种食品成分的价格都在大幅上涨。
Can't hold rising prices (or shrinking portions) against them. Ingredients have all gone up in price significantly.
（餐馆）无法阻止价格的上涨（或是份量部分的萎缩）。 各种食品成分的价格都在大幅上涨。
therealowlman
So true. You can get any recipe or video on YouTube and make food far better at home than most restaurants for cheaper.
When you get to that point in the kitchen, you realize restaurants are all about service and excuse to get out of the house.
没错儿。你现在可以在油管上获得任何食谱或做菜的视频，并以更便宜的价格在家中制作比大多数餐馆更好的饭菜。
当你进入厨房的那一刻起，你会意识到去餐厅吃饭都是关于服务和离家的借口。
So true. You can get any recipe or video on YouTube and make food far better at home than most restaurants for cheaper.
When you get to that point in the kitchen, you realize restaurants are all about service and excuse to get out of the house.
没错儿。你现在可以在油管上获得任何食谱或做菜的视频，并以更便宜的价格在家中制作比大多数餐馆更好的饭菜。
当你进入厨房的那一刻起，你会意识到去餐厅吃饭都是关于服务和离家的借口。
wookie3744
Well have to say my conclusion is I only go out to eat for things I can’t cook.
I have a oven. I cook on at home most of time.
My family and I only typically go out for fish or seafood since we live near the coast.
However I can count on 1 hand the number of times we have gone out to eat this year. Maybe 3 times total.
好吧，不得不说我的结论是我只出去吃我做不出来的东西。
我有一个烤箱。大部分时间我都在家里做饭。
因为我们住在海边附近，所以我和我的家人通常只出去吃鱼或海鲜。
然而，我可以用一只手来计算今年我们出去用餐的次数。可能总共也就3次。
Well have to say my conclusion is I only go out to eat for things I can’t cook.
I have a oven. I cook on at home most of time.
My family and I only typically go out for fish or seafood since we live near the coast.
However I can count on 1 hand the number of times we have gone out to eat this year. Maybe 3 times total.
好吧，不得不说我的结论是我只出去吃我做不出来的东西。
我有一个烤箱。大部分时间我都在家里做饭。
因为我们住在海边附近，所以我和我的家人通常只出去吃鱼或海鲜。
然而，我可以用一只手来计算今年我们出去用餐的次数。可能总共也就3次。
Mysterious_Elk_749
I learned how to do my own gel manicures to save $100 each month. Also, I learned to do my own eyebrows. Trying to cut back as much as possible.
我学会了如何自己做凝胶美甲，每月能省下来100美元。另外，我还学会了自己做眉毛。总之尽量减少不必要的开销。
I learned how to do my own gel manicures to save $100 each month. Also, I learned to do my own eyebrows. Trying to cut back as much as possible.
我学会了如何自己做凝胶美甲，每月能省下来100美元。另外，我还学会了自己做眉毛。总之尽量减少不必要的开销。
justicebeaver34
I learned to cut and dye my own hair. If you follow the right steps, the effects can last for a few weeks.
我学会了自己剪头发和染头发。如果你按正确步骤来做的话，效果可以保持好几周。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I learned to cut and dye my own hair. If you follow the right steps, the effects can last for a few weeks.
我学会了自己剪头发和染头发。如果你按正确步骤来做的话，效果可以保持好几周。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Optimal_Article5075
I learned how to cut my kid’s hair recently.
Saves me $30-$40 per month and takes like 10 minutes. I obviously can’t give him a sick fade, but looks presentable and wasn’t nearly as difficult as I thought it would be once I learned the trick.
我最近学会了如何为我的孩子剪头发。
这样我每月可以省下30到40美元，大约需要 10 分钟。我显然无法给他一个病态的染色，但看起来还是挺像样的，并且一旦我掌握了其中的技巧，几乎也没有我想象的那么困难。
I learned how to cut my kid’s hair recently.
Saves me $30-$40 per month and takes like 10 minutes. I obviously can’t give him a sick fade, but looks presentable and wasn’t nearly as difficult as I thought it would be once I learned the trick.
我最近学会了如何为我的孩子剪头发。
这样我每月可以省下30到40美元，大约需要 10 分钟。我显然无法给他一个病态的染色，但看起来还是挺像样的，并且一旦我掌握了其中的技巧，几乎也没有我想象的那么困难。
Mysterious_Elk_749
During Covid I was cutting my boyfriends hair and figured out how to fade. YouTube is magical for learning new things. :)
在 Covid 流行期间，我为我男朋友剪头发，并想出了如何染发的法子。油管具有学习各种新事物的魔力。:)
During Covid I was cutting my boyfriends hair and figured out how to fade. YouTube is magical for learning new things. :)
在 Covid 流行期间，我为我男朋友剪头发，并想出了如何染发的法子。油管具有学习各种新事物的魔力。:)
7000RPM
I started cutting my hair during Covid. Now I do it because I do a better job than the barbers lol. The $25 saved per month is nice too
我也是在Covid流行期间开始剪头发的。现在我这样做是因为我比理发师做得更好哈哈。每月能省下25美元也挺不错的
I started cutting my hair during Covid. Now I do it because I do a better job than the barbers lol. The $25 saved per month is nice too
我也是在Covid流行期间开始剪头发的。现在我这样做是因为我比理发师做得更好哈哈。每月能省下25美元也挺不错的
TheFastestDancer
Isn't the internet amazing? You can learn anything! I love Reddit because you can get so many different perspectives here. The regular internet is just a company selling their point of view in the form of content marketing. Here, you can get real experiences that people have had. People are very generous with their knowledge here. I've learned so many things on YouTube and Reddit over the last 2 years too.
互联网是不是很神奇？你可以学到任何东西！我喜欢红迪，因为你可以在这里获得很多不同的观点。普通的互联网只是一家以内容营销的形式出售他们观点的公司。在这里，你可以获得人们曾经有过的真实体验。人们对在这里发布知识非常慷慨。在过去的 2 年里，我也在 油管和红迪上学到了很多东西。
Isn't the internet amazing? You can learn anything! I love Reddit because you can get so many different perspectives here. The regular internet is just a company selling their point of view in the form of content marketing. Here, you can get real experiences that people have had. People are very generous with their knowledge here. I've learned so many things on YouTube and Reddit over the last 2 years too.
互联网是不是很神奇？你可以学到任何东西！我喜欢红迪，因为你可以在这里获得很多不同的观点。普通的互联网只是一家以内容营销的形式出售他们观点的公司。在这里，你可以获得人们曾经有过的真实体验。人们对在这里发布知识非常慷慨。在过去的 2 年里，我也在 油管和红迪上学到了很多东西。
EducatedRat
I do my way wife’s hair. I cut it. She does her own brows and nails. I feel like we’ve cut out every service we possibly can at this point.
我为我妻子做头发。我负责剪发。她自己做眉毛和指甲。我觉得我们现在已经削减了所有可能的服务性开支。
I do my way wife’s hair. I cut it. She does her own brows and nails. I feel like we’ve cut out every service we possibly can at this point.
我为我妻子做头发。我负责剪发。她自己做眉毛和指甲。我觉得我们现在已经削减了所有可能的服务性开支。
agumonkey
collapse fueled skill upgrade
经济崩溃推动了（个人）技能的升级
collapse fueled skill upgrade
经济崩溃推动了（个人）技能的升级
Already-Price-Tin
I have noticed that a lot of groceries, especially meat, are significantly pricier than before covid, at a much higher rate compared to price increases on the restaurants I go to. BLS's numbers back up my anecdotal observations: the May report has food at home up 11.9% and food at restaurants up 7.4%.
To me, this is just one more example of the inflation hitting the poor harder than the rich. The categories the poor spend a larger percentage of their income on (food at home, energy, rent) have shot up faster than the monthly budget items that the rich spend on (restaurants, mortgages).
我注意到很多食品，尤其是肉类，比新冠疫情之前要贵得多，与我去的餐馆的价格上涨相比，价格要高得多。美国劳工部统计局发布的数据支持了我的观察：5月份的报告显示，家庭食品开支增长了11.9%，餐馆食品上涨了7.4%。
对我来说，这只是通货膨胀对穷人的打击比对富人的打击更大的一个例子。穷人在收入中所占比例较大的类别（家庭食品、能源、房租）的增长速度大大超过了富人每月的预算项目（餐馆、抵押贷款）的支出。
I have noticed that a lot of groceries, especially meat, are significantly pricier than before covid, at a much higher rate compared to price increases on the restaurants I go to. BLS's numbers back up my anecdotal observations: the May report has food at home up 11.9% and food at restaurants up 7.4%.
To me, this is just one more example of the inflation hitting the poor harder than the rich. The categories the poor spend a larger percentage of their income on (food at home, energy, rent) have shot up faster than the monthly budget items that the rich spend on (restaurants, mortgages).
我注意到很多食品，尤其是肉类，比新冠疫情之前要贵得多，与我去的餐馆的价格上涨相比，价格要高得多。美国劳工部统计局发布的数据支持了我的观察：5月份的报告显示，家庭食品开支增长了11.9%，餐馆食品上涨了7.4%。
对我来说，这只是通货膨胀对穷人的打击比对富人的打击更大的一个例子。穷人在收入中所占比例较大的类别（家庭食品、能源、房租）的增长速度大大超过了富人每月的预算项目（餐馆、抵押贷款）的支出。
ks016
Yeah. I definitely can no longer make meals that hearty and tasty for $6 a meal
没错儿。我现在绝对不可能再以每餐 6 美元的成本做一顿丰盛可口的饭菜了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yeah. I definitely can no longer make meals that hearty and tasty for $6 a meal
没错儿。我现在绝对不可能再以每餐 6 美元的成本做一顿丰盛可口的饭菜了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
throwra3022
This Mexican restaurant by my house is charging $8 for chips and salsa.
3 margaritas @ $10 each
My burrito @ $16
Chips and salsa @ $8
And 20% tip?
Yeah. I’m definitely cutting back when a Mexican meal for one cost me what a steak would cost
我家附近的这家墨西哥餐厅的薯条和调味酱要 8 美元。
3 杯玛格丽塔酒，每杯 10 美元
我的墨西哥卷饼@ 16 美元
薯条和调味酱 @ 8 美元
再加上 20% 的小费？
是的。当一顿墨西哥饭要花费牛排的价格时，我肯定会减少（在外用餐）
This Mexican restaurant by my house is charging $8 for chips and salsa.
3 margaritas @ $10 each
My burrito @ $16
Chips and salsa @ $8
And 20% tip?
Yeah. I’m definitely cutting back when a Mexican meal for one cost me what a steak would cost
我家附近的这家墨西哥餐厅的薯条和调味酱要 8 美元。
3 杯玛格丽塔酒，每杯 10 美元
我的墨西哥卷饼@ 16 美元
薯条和调味酱 @ 8 美元
再加上 20% 的小费？
是的。当一顿墨西哥饭要花费牛排的价格时，我肯定会减少（在外用餐）
TheFastestDancer
$8 for chips and salsa? There's laws against that, my guy. You could take that to court and win.
薯条和调味酱 8美元？有法律禁止这样做，伙计。你可以将他们告上法庭并获胜。
$8 for chips and salsa? There's laws against that, my guy. You could take that to court and win.
薯条和调味酱 8美元？有法律禁止这样做，伙计。你可以将他们告上法庭并获胜。
Alexkono
$65 for a non-fancy meal. Ya pretty crazy.
非正式用餐花费65美元。你可真疯狂。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
$65 for a non-fancy meal. Ya pretty crazy.
非正式用餐花费65美元。你可真疯狂。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
camohorse
So, what’s the solution (if any) here? Will prices ever go down, or will wages ever go up? Something’s gonna break. As a broke-ass college student living at home, this shit has me freaked the fuck out.
那么，这里有什么解决方案（如果有的话）？物价会下降，还是工资会上涨？有什么坏事要发生了。作为一个住在家里的废柴大学生，这狗屎世道把我吓坏了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
So, what’s the solution (if any) here? Will prices ever go down, or will wages ever go up? Something’s gonna break. As a broke-ass college student living at home, this shit has me freaked the fuck out.
那么，这里有什么解决方案（如果有的话）？物价会下降，还是工资会上涨？有什么坏事要发生了。作为一个住在家里的废柴大学生，这狗屎世道把我吓坏了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Jacob_Tutor11
There will be some deflation with a recession. The goal is to slow inflation enough so wages can eventually catch up.
Deflation is absolute shit for the economy normally but I really don't see an alternative here.
经济衰退会出现一些通货紧缩。目标是充分减缓通货膨胀，使工资最终能够赶上。
通货紧缩通常对经济来说绝对是一团糟，但我真的没有看到其他选择。
There will be some deflation with a recession. The goal is to slow inflation enough so wages can eventually catch up.
Deflation is absolute shit for the economy normally but I really don't see an alternative here.
经济衰退会出现一些通货紧缩。目标是充分减缓通货膨胀，使工资最终能够赶上。
通货紧缩通常对经济来说绝对是一团糟，但我真的没有看到其他选择。
Zer_oKelvin
All the leading indicators are pointing to a Major recession coming. They can't continue to raise interest rates and have it not impact the economy as it is all interrelated.
The recession and the problems they avoided in 2008 by printing money never went away. It's just been postponed and now the chickens are coming home to roost. Now the national debt is higher and important metrics like savings is down, credit card debt is up, mortgage applications are down, bankruptcy risk due to the higher cost of doing business is up....
My instinct is that they will also try to avoid the next one by printing money but that will accelerate inflation and even hyperinflation if we lose world reserve currency status down the road due to our overspending, over-consumption and lack of productivity
所有领先指标都指向即将到来的重大衰退。他们不能继续提高利率而不会影响经济，因为这都是相互关联的。
经济衰退和他们在 2008 年通过印钞票以逃避的问题从未消失。它刚刚被推迟，现在小鸡们要回窝里休息了。现在国债更高了，储蓄额下降、信用卡债务上升、抵押贷款申请下降、由于经营成本较高而导致的破产风险上升……
我的直觉是，他们还是会试图通过印钞票来避免下一次衰退，但如果我们由于超支、过度消费和缺乏生产力而失去世界储备货币地位，这将加速通货膨胀甚至导致恶性通货膨胀
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
All the leading indicators are pointing to a Major recession coming. They can't continue to raise interest rates and have it not impact the economy as it is all interrelated.
The recession and the problems they avoided in 2008 by printing money never went away. It's just been postponed and now the chickens are coming home to roost. Now the national debt is higher and important metrics like savings is down, credit card debt is up, mortgage applications are down, bankruptcy risk due to the higher cost of doing business is up....
My instinct is that they will also try to avoid the next one by printing money but that will accelerate inflation and even hyperinflation if we lose world reserve currency status down the road due to our overspending, over-consumption and lack of productivity
所有领先指标都指向即将到来的重大衰退。他们不能继续提高利率而不会影响经济，因为这都是相互关联的。
经济衰退和他们在 2008 年通过印钞票以逃避的问题从未消失。它刚刚被推迟，现在小鸡们要回窝里休息了。现在国债更高了，储蓄额下降、信用卡债务上升、抵押贷款申请下降、由于经营成本较高而导致的破产风险上升……
我的直觉是，他们还是会试图通过印钞票来避免下一次衰退，但如果我们由于超支、过度消费和缺乏生产力而失去世界储备货币地位，这将加速通货膨胀甚至导致恶性通货膨胀
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
camohorse
So, basically, we’re just digging ourselves a deeper and deeper hole…
Great
所以，基本上，我们只是在给自己挖一个越来越深的坑……
这可太棒了!
So, basically, we’re just digging ourselves a deeper and deeper hole…
Great
所以，基本上，我们只是在给自己挖一个越来越深的坑……
这可太棒了!
wupdup
I expect the Fed to revert to low rates as soon as they think inflation is tamed.
我预计，一旦美联储认为通胀得到控制，他们就会恢复低利率。
I expect the Fed to revert to low rates as soon as they think inflation is tamed.
我预计，一旦美联储认为通胀得到控制，他们就会恢复低利率。
FieldSparrow
Putting off any road trips for this year and trying to focus on just enjoying being home and fun stuff nearby that don’t require a lot of driving. Wish we had better public transport, especially in city areas where parking and traffic are nightmares.
今年应该推迟任何公路旅行，并努力专注于享受在家和附近不需要长途驾驶的有趣事物。希望我们有更好的公共交通，尤其是在停车和交通都是噩梦的城区。
Putting off any road trips for this year and trying to focus on just enjoying being home and fun stuff nearby that don’t require a lot of driving. Wish we had better public transport, especially in city areas where parking and traffic are nightmares.
今年应该推迟任何公路旅行，并努力专注于享受在家和附近不需要长途驾驶的有趣事物。希望我们有更好的公共交通，尤其是在停车和交通都是噩梦的城区。
carmachu
Yup. We usually visit her mother every summer. 800 mile trip. I had to sit her down and set out how much in gas alone was going to cost-$6 a gallon, 15 gallon tank. Which didn’t include food or motel if we wanted to two day it.
She understood . She’s thinking long and hard about whether we go or not.
是的。我们通常每年夏天都会去看望我妻子的母亲。800英里的旅行。我现在不得不让她坐下来，算一算单是汽油就要花多少钱——每加仑6美元，15加仑的油箱。如果我们想要开两天车的话，这还不包括食品和汽车旅馆的开支。
她明白了。还在苦苦思索我们要不要去。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yup. We usually visit her mother every summer. 800 mile trip. I had to sit her down and set out how much in gas alone was going to cost-$6 a gallon, 15 gallon tank. Which didn’t include food or motel if we wanted to two day it.
She understood . She’s thinking long and hard about whether we go or not.
是的。我们通常每年夏天都会去看望我妻子的母亲。800英里的旅行。我现在不得不让她坐下来，算一算单是汽油就要花多少钱——每加仑6美元，15加仑的油箱。如果我们想要开两天车的话，这还不包括食品和汽车旅馆的开支。
她明白了。还在苦苦思索我们要不要去。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Droidvoid
15g tank tells me midsized sedan or small crossover probably averaging ~32mpg on the highway. So whole trip would be about (800/32)*$6= 186 so about $370 on gas alone. Not bad compared to flying i guess.
15加仑的油箱告诉我，中型轿车或小型跨界车在高速公路上的平均速度可能约为每加仑32英里的耗油量。因此，整个行程大约是 (800/32)*$6=186，因此仅汽油费就大约为 370 美元。我猜与坐飞机相比还不错。
15g tank tells me midsized sedan or small crossover probably averaging ~32mpg on the highway. So whole trip would be about (800/32)*$6= 186 so about $370 on gas alone. Not bad compared to flying i guess.
15加仑的油箱告诉我，中型轿车或小型跨界车在高速公路上的平均速度可能约为每加仑32英里的耗油量。因此，整个行程大约是 (800/32)*$6=186，因此仅汽油费就大约为 370 美元。我猜与坐飞机相比还不错。
carmachu
310 each way. Now add food on the trip and possible hotel stay each way if we don’t want to do 12 hours in one go.A $500 trip turned into $1000 easily just to get there. And we are a family of 4 so flying is a lot more
单程310。如果我们不想一次 12 小时就跑到，现在在旅途中添上吃饭和可能的酒店住宿开支。500 美元的旅行很容易就会变成 1000 美元，只是为了到达那里。我们是一个 4 口之家，所以坐飞机开销肯定更大。
310 each way. Now add food on the trip and possible hotel stay each way if we don’t want to do 12 hours in one go.A $500 trip turned into $1000 easily just to get there. And we are a family of 4 so flying is a lot more
单程310。如果我们不想一次 12 小时就跑到，现在在旅途中添上吃饭和可能的酒店住宿开支。500 美元的旅行很容易就会变成 1000 美元，只是为了到达那里。我们是一个 4 口之家，所以坐飞机开销肯定更大。
zorbathegrate
The double edged sword of emotion.
Half of me hopes Americans pull out of all their spending. Eat at home, take public transport, spend less on useless things, bike and walk more. Absolutely decimate the big companies and the billionaire class.
But there are so many people who barely eke by on tips and below minimum wage jobs who need people to inject money into the economy.
The answer is simple, tax the rich.
情感上的双刃剑。
一半的人希望美国人削减所有开支。在家吃饭，乘坐公共交通工具，在没用的东西上少花钱，多骑自行车和步行。绝对消灭大公司和亿万富翁阶层。
但是有很多人靠着和低于最低工资的工作和小费勉强维持生计，这需要人们向经济注入资金。
答案很简单，对富人征税。
The double edged sword of emotion.
Half of me hopes Americans pull out of all their spending. Eat at home, take public transport, spend less on useless things, bike and walk more. Absolutely decimate the big companies and the billionaire class.
But there are so many people who barely eke by on tips and below minimum wage jobs who need people to inject money into the economy.
The answer is simple, tax the rich.
情感上的双刃剑。
一半的人希望美国人削减所有开支。在家吃饭，乘坐公共交通工具，在没用的东西上少花钱，多骑自行车和步行。绝对消灭大公司和亿万富翁阶层。
但是有很多人靠着和低于最低工资的工作和小费勉强维持生计，这需要人们向经济注入资金。
答案很简单，对富人征税。
shitdobehappeningtho
More like "The rich keep getting richer while blaming the poor for not spending money that doesn't exist".
更像是“富人越来越富，同时还谴责穷人不愿花根本没有的钱”。
More like "The rich keep getting richer while blaming the poor for not spending money that doesn't exist".
更像是“富人越来越富，同时还谴责穷人不愿花根本没有的钱”。
johndoped
Let’s see. Income hasn’t gone up very much but now gas, food, and rent is taking up most of the paycheck.
让我们来看看。收入并没有增加太多，但现在汽油、食品和租金占据了薪水收入的大部分。
Let’s see. Income hasn’t gone up very much but now gas, food, and rent is taking up most of the paycheck.
让我们来看看。收入并没有增加太多，但现在汽油、食品和租金占据了薪水收入的大部分。
iamthemovie1992
I work for a retail company that sells an optional kind of product, and we are also feeling it. Sales are down in comparison to last year and even the year before (because we had a lot of success in the pandemic surprisingly). Specifically I work in the distribution center, and nobody is buying anything, meaning nobody is ordering anything, meaning there’s hardly any work and we’re having people leave everyday. I’ve started to look for jobs in other industries, because its starting to look like layoffs are going to be coming in a few months. And I know my department will be part of that for sure.
我在一家销售可选产品的零售公司工作，我们也感受到了这一点。与去年甚至前一年相比，销售额有所下降（因为我们在大流行期间取得了很大的成功）。具体来说，我在配送中心工作，没有人买任何东西，这意味着没有人订购任何东西，这意味着几乎没有任何工作，现在每天都有人离开。我已经开始在其他行业寻找工作，因为现在的情况开始看起来像裁员即将在几个月内发生。我知道我的部门肯定会在其中。
I work for a retail company that sells an optional kind of product, and we are also feeling it. Sales are down in comparison to last year and even the year before (because we had a lot of success in the pandemic surprisingly). Specifically I work in the distribution center, and nobody is buying anything, meaning nobody is ordering anything, meaning there’s hardly any work and we’re having people leave everyday. I’ve started to look for jobs in other industries, because its starting to look like layoffs are going to be coming in a few months. And I know my department will be part of that for sure.
我在一家销售可选产品的零售公司工作，我们也感受到了这一点。与去年甚至前一年相比，销售额有所下降（因为我们在大流行期间取得了很大的成功）。具体来说，我在配送中心工作，没有人买任何东西，这意味着没有人订购任何东西，这意味着几乎没有任何工作，现在每天都有人离开。我已经开始在其他行业寻找工作，因为现在的情况开始看起来像裁员即将在几个月内发生。我知道我的部门肯定会在其中。
truefforte
You should hurry and lock in a more secure job before competing for them becomes more intense.
在竞争变得更加激烈之前，你应该尽快锁定一份更安全的工作。
You should hurry and lock in a more secure job before competing for them becomes more intense.
在竞争变得更加激烈之前，你应该尽快锁定一份更安全的工作。
Buck_Thorn
When it costs $10-$15 or more for lunch in a sit-in restaurant, I will find somewhere else to go, or make my own lunch. And lunch is the cheapest meal in those places.
And what really sucks is that I know that those places (the ones that survived at all) are really hurting from Covid. I'd love to be able to help them out, but I have to help myself out first.
当在一家堂食餐厅吃午餐要花费 10-15 美元或更多时，我会找别的地方去，或者自己做午餐。午餐是那些地方最便宜的一餐。
真正糟糕的是，我知道那些地方（那些幸存下来的地方）真的受到了Covid疫情的伤害。我很想能够帮助他们，但我必须先帮助自己。
When it costs $10-$15 or more for lunch in a sit-in restaurant, I will find somewhere else to go, or make my own lunch. And lunch is the cheapest meal in those places.
And what really sucks is that I know that those places (the ones that survived at all) are really hurting from Covid. I'd love to be able to help them out, but I have to help myself out first.
当在一家堂食餐厅吃午餐要花费 10-15 美元或更多时，我会找别的地方去，或者自己做午餐。午餐是那些地方最便宜的一餐。
真正糟糕的是，我知道那些地方（那些幸存下来的地方）真的受到了Covid疫情的伤害。我很想能够帮助他们，但我必须先帮助自己。
bucheonsi
I'm leaving the US because this place has gotten too expensive. I can work from anywhere in the world so why would I choose to live in one of the most expensive places on Earth?
我要离开美国，因为这个地方太贵了。我可以在世界任何地方工作，那么为什么我得选择住在地球上最昂贵的地方之一呢？
I'm leaving the US because this place has gotten too expensive. I can work from anywhere in the world so why would I choose to live in one of the most expensive places on Earth?
我要离开美国，因为这个地方太贵了。我可以在世界任何地方工作，那么为什么我得选择住在地球上最昂贵的地方之一呢？
Jacob_Tutor11
Inflation is a global issue. Hard to escape this one.
通货膨胀是一个全球性问题。很难逃过这一关。
Inflation is a global issue. Hard to escape this one.
通货膨胀是一个全球性问题。很难逃过这一关。
Droidvoid
It sounds like they can keep their US wages and live elsewhere. Inflation is a problem everywhere but life is all relative and with US wages they can easily afford life in some mid tier European country for example
听起来他们可以保留在美国的工资收入并住在其他地方。通货膨胀在任何地方都是一个问题，但生活都是相对的，以美国的工资水平，他们可以轻松负担在一些欧洲中等国家的生活
It sounds like they can keep their US wages and live elsewhere. Inflation is a problem everywhere but life is all relative and with US wages they can easily afford life in some mid tier European country for example
听起来他们可以保留在美国的工资收入并住在其他地方。通货膨胀在任何地方都是一个问题，但生活都是相对的，以美国的工资水平，他们可以轻松负担在一些欧洲中等国家的生活
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