网帖翻译

The electric endgame for fossil fuels

化石燃料发电接近尾声

Electrifying everything does not solve the climate crisis, but it is a great start

将一切电气化不会解决气候危机，但这是一个良好的开端

The transition still needs plenty of assistance

能源转型仍然需要大量援助

Walking into the grid control room at 50Hertz, a Berlin-based utility, on the morning of May 13th felt like walking onto the bridge of a spaceship: screens full of data, an air of competent calm and the underlying sense of an immense flow of power being guided on its journey. This hyper-secure site (and its mirror in another location) are charged with controlling the flow of electricity to 18m people in eastern and northern Germany.

5月13日上午，我参观了总部位于柏林的公用事业单位50Hertz的电网控制室，仿佛置身于星际飞船的舰桥上：满屏幕的数据，从容不迫的气氛，隐约感觉旅途中有人操纵着一股强大的能量流。这个高度安全的场所（及其另一地点的备用系统）负责向德国东部和北部的1800万居民输送电力。

Today the screens show 28% of that flow coming from wind farms and 24% from solar panels. A decade ago the custodians of the grids which keep the rich world’s lights on would have told you this was impossible. Renewables were too troublesome, too hard to balance with demand moment by moment, too prone to fluctuations in the frequency of the current they provided. In 2011 a symposium of electricity mavens convened by mit concluded that “Too much electricity generation from intermittent renewables is as much of a problem as too little generation.”

如今大屏上显示，28%的电力来自风力发电场，24%来自太阳能电池板。十年前，发达国家的电网负责人会告诉你这不现实。可再生能源太令人头疼，供电量与需求难以时刻保持平衡，供电频率太容易波动。2011年，麻省理工学院举办的电力专家研讨会得出结论：“间歇性可再生能源发电过多或过少都成问题”。

This scepticism was understandable. Dirk Biermann, who is in charge of system operations at 50Hertz, points out that grid operators “are very conservative when it comes to system operations because, at any price, we have to make sure that the electricity supply is maintained.” Nevertheless it was misplaced. The grid 50Hertz oversees is quite capable of running a transmission grid with 50-60% wind and solar power.

这种质疑可以理解。50Hertz公司的系统运行负责人德克·别尔曼指出，电网运营商“在系统运行方面非常保守，因为我们必须不惜一切代价确保电力供应”。50Hertz公司的电网能够出色地运行风能和太阳能占比50-60%的输电网。

And the progress is not over. The company aims to be able to handle a 100% wind-and-solar grid by 2032. Mr Biermann sees that target as demanding—“We have to speed up”—and anticipates “moments of tension” on the way. But he thinks it will be done. Some places, after all, are already doing it, if only for fairly short periods. Neighbouring Denmark has at times run its entire power grid on wind power alone. At 3.39pm on April 3rd over 97% of California’s power came from just wind and solar. A decade of technical, managerial and systems-engineering progress has put the design and management of grids dominated by renewables within the sober, risk-averse grasp of people who run electric grids. What was once touted as a fundamental barrier to the transition from fossil fuels has been done away with.

进步没有停止。该公司的目标是2032年能够运行100%的风能与太阳能电网。别尔曼先生认为这是一个高难度目标——“我们必须加快脚步”——并预测到即将面临的“紧张时刻”。但他认为能够实现这一目标。毕竟有些地方已经这样做了，只是维持的时间非常短。邻国丹麦有时完全依靠风能维持整个电网的运转。4月3日下午3点39分，美国加州超过97%的电力来自风能和太阳能。凭借十年技术、管理、系统工程上的进步，电网管理人员能够审慎可靠地设计和管理以可再生能源为主的电网，过去被视为化石燃料转型的根本性障碍已被破除。

The rub of the green

环保难题

The ability to use renewables for the lion’s share of a grid’s supply, coupled with the fact that renewables have been made cheap and are getting yet cheaper, is the basis of a decarbonisation strategy all but universally accepted by those determined to stabilise the climate. Make the power on electric grids emissions-free, cheap and copious. Start electrifying all processes that now require fossil fuels—such as powering cars, or heating homes and steel foundries—where electrification is clearly possible. It does not deliver everything that is needed. But it delivers a lot.

有能力利用再生能源为电网提供大部分电力，以及可再生能源变得越来越低廉，这些构成了去碳化战略的基础，并得到那些决定稳定气候人士的普遍认可。让电网上的电力实现零排放、低廉、充足。针对目前需要化石燃料的一切环节开始实施电气化——例如汽车动力、家庭供暖、铸钢厂——这些环节显然可以实现电气化。尽管无法完全满足电力需求，但也能提供许多电力。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Two decades ago the high price of emissions-free generating capacity made such a trajectory look both far-fetched and scary. Now it is seen by many as an opportunity. But it faces serious obstacles. This report looks at opportunities and obstacles alike. It also looks at the impact that the war in Ukraine is having on both.

二十年前，零排放发电价格昂贵，使这条道路显得难以置信和可怕。如今许多人将零排放发电视为机遇，但也存在严峻的挑战。本文从机遇和挑战两方面进行了分析，同时也探讨了乌克兰战争对两方面的影响。

One big issue is back-up. If there was twice as much renewable capacity on the 50Hertz patch—as there well could be in the 2030s, given present trends on cost and deployment—then on this breezy spring morning the grid would have access to all the power it needed. But after sunset during extended periods without wind, no amount of extra capacity is any help, however cheap it may be.

备用容量是个大问题。如果50Hertz公司的备用容量增加一倍可再生能源的装机容量——考虑到目前的成本和规划趋势，本世纪30年代可能实现目标——在春季多风的早晨，电网能够获取所需的全部电量。但在日落后长时间无风的条件下，再多的额外容量也无济于事，但价格可能便宜。

Mr Biermann says part of the answer to such Dunkelflaute—dark doldrums—is to expand the grid, bringing in renewable energy from a wider range of sources. Another part is to find ways to lower demand when supply is dicey. And increasingly capable batteries and other storage systems will be vital. But there will also be a need for back-up.

别尔曼先生表示，解决“黑暗低谷期”的一个办法是扩大电网建设，从更广泛的来源并入可再生能源。另一个办法是在供电不稳定时，想办法减少需求。日益强大的蓄电池及其他储能装置也至关重要，但备用容量仍是必要的。

In Germany it will not be nuclear. The country’s last nuclear plants are due to be shut down this year as part of a process begun in overreaction to the meltdown at Fukushima in 2011. And in no country should it be coal. With those options untenable, Germany has built up its renewables on the basis that, in the long run, backup will be provided by burning hydrogen produced using the grid’s copious renewable resources. As the hydrogen-production capacity is built up, Mr Biermann says the plan had been to use natural gas as a stop-gap, slowly tapering it off as the hydrogen supply increased. This is not a perfect solution since, although gas produces fewer climate emissions than coal, it does still produce plenty of them. But it is a technically plausible one.

德国不可能使用核能，该国将于今年关闭最后一批核电站。2011年发生的福岛核电站事故引起德国小题大做，从此开启了关闭核电站计划。另外，任何国家都不应该使用煤炭。既然这些方案都行不通，从长远来看，德国可以利用丰富的电网可再生资源制造氢气，通过燃烧氢气来提供备用容量，以此为基础发展可再生能源。由于氢气的产能需要逐步增加，别尔曼先生说他们打算使用天然气作为过渡，随着氢气供应量的增加，逐渐减少天然气使用量。这不是完美的解决方案，尽管天然气产生的温室气体排放少于煤炭，仍然会产生大量的排放物，但这是一个技术上可行的办法。

Politically, not so much. The Russian invasion of Ukraine did not just send natural-gas prices soaring. It also opened up concerns about security of supply, and the strategic viability of a supply dominated by a powerful enemy. In 2021 the eu imported 45% of its natural gas from Russia; for Germany, Europe’s biggest gas consumer, the figure was 55%.

在政治上不太可行。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰不仅导致天然气价格上涨，而且引发了供应安全上的担忧，以及天然气供应由强大的敌国主导是否具有战略可行性的担忧。2021年，欧盟进口的天然气中有45%来自俄罗斯；德国是欧洲最大的天然气消费国，该数字达到55%。

Complex trade-offs

复杂的权衡
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The basic logic of post-Ukraine energy security, which applies far beyond Germany, is to rely as little as possible on flows of hydrocarbons from geopolitically dodgy sources. At one level it is a goal well served by adding renewable capacity to the grid as fast as possible. A kilowatt-hour from a solar panel or a wind turbine is one that does not need to be bought in the form of gas.

在后乌克兰时代，能源安全的基本思路是尽量减少依赖有地缘政治风险的烃类燃料的来源，适用范围不限于德国。从某种角度来说，尽快发展电网的可再生能源的装机容量足以实现这一目标。利用太阳能电池板或风力发电机发电，不需要购买天然气。

Increasing renewable generating capacity yet faster is already a priority for people who are devoted to climate security. In other ways, though, the two agendas diverge. However quickly they are crowded onto the grid, renewables cannot entirely eliminate Europe’s need for gas; as well as providing back-up when renewables are not producing electricity, gas is vital to Europe’s industrial heartland, not to mention heating many of its homes. So energy-security hawks want to increase greatly Europe’s capacity to import liquefied natural gas (lng).

对于致力于气候安全的人士来说，加快提高可再生能源的装机容量已是当务之急。但在其他方面，能源安全与气候安全存在分歧。无论可再生能源并入电网的速度有多快，都无法完全消除欧洲对天然气的需求；天然气不仅在可再生能源无法发电时提供备用容量，而且对于欧洲的工业腹地来说至关重要，况且还涉及千家万户的供暖。因此，能源安全鹰派希望欧洲大幅增加液化天然气的进口。

Climate hawks look on this with trepidation. They argue that a low- to no-emissions future is not just a matter of reducing fossil-fuel use in existing infrastructure; it is about establishing system-level change through a once-and-for-all replacement of infrastructure. Investment in alternative sources of hydrocarbons on the scale needed to replace Russian supplies within a decade, they fear, will see hydrocarbons embedded in Europe’s electricity system for decades to come. “Get new gas, then go green” is pitted against “To go green means no new gas”.

气候鹰派对此忧心忡忡。他们认为未来要想实现低排放或零排放，不仅需要现有的基础设施减少使用化石燃料，而且需要彻底地更换基础设施，以实现系统层面的变革。如果投资其他来源的烃类燃料，十年内取代俄罗斯的能源供应，他们担心在未来几十年，烃类燃料将融入欧洲的电力系统。“先获取新的燃气，然后追求环保”与“追求环保意味着不能使用新的燃气”是对立的。

The issue is not unique to Europe. Similar concerns were raised when Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, announced that there would be a role for natural gas in a new $5.2bn “strategic reserve” of capacity designed to ensure that the state’s ambitious expansion of renewable power would not lead to blackouts.

这并不是欧洲独有的问题。美国加州州长加文·纽森曾引起同样的担忧，他声称天然气将在新增的52亿美元“战略储备”容量中占有一席之地，旨在确保该州在大规模增加可再生能源发电量的同时不会发生停电。

These trade-offs between energy security and climate security are complicated further by one of the fundamental issues plaguing the race to decarbonise the economy. Is the technology needed already available? Or does it still need to be developed?

经济去碳化存在一个根本性问题，使能源安全与气候安全之间的权衡变得更加复杂。必要的技术准备好了吗？还是有待于研发？

At one extreme are those who argue that all the tools necessary for radical decarbonisation already exist, and that the energy transition is a matter of finding political support for their deployment at an ever greater pace and scale coupled with a willingness in the rich world (and sometimes, implicitly, in the developing world too) to make do with less energy. At the other are those who say that the transition will require whole rafts of technology not yet out of the lab, and in some cases not even in the lab.

一种极端观点认为，完全去碳化的一切必要工具已经齐备，能源转型需要谋求政治支持，以实现更快更大规模的建设，同时还需要发达国家（有时也委婉提到发展中国家）减少能源消耗来勉强度日。另一种极端观点认为，能源转型需要尚未走出实验室的全部技术，某些技术甚至尚未开始研发。

The technical and the political are intertwined. If you believe that climate catastrophe looms in the near future you more or less have to believe in a technologically come-as-you-are transition. If you are deeply averse to climate action which requires massive political and economic disruption you will tend to favour going long on research.

技术与政治密不可分。如果你相信气候灾难即将来临，你大概会支持技术上“保持本色”的能源转型。如果你对气候行动深恶痛绝，认为它会造成政治和经济上的破坏，你会可能支持长期研发技术。