中国在电动汽车市场的主导地位对美国汽车制造商的未来意味着什么？

Peter Makin
works at a University，Lives in The United Kingdom
There are many things driving the boom in Chinese electric car production. First off, China is changing from a country where car ownership was very rare, to one where the workers who have moved from the countryside into the cities in their masses want transportation. Nearly all the e-bikes in the world are in China.
Recognising that cars are a natural progression, China has spent close to 500 billion Yuan over the past years to become a country that produces electric cars. Ostensibly for their own market (and to address climate/air quality issues), but China has already recognised that the rest of the world needs electric vehicles too, and the potential size of the market will be world-changing.

推动中国电动汽车生产繁荣的因素有很多。首先，中国正在从一个拥有汽车非常罕见的国家转变为一个从农村搬到城市的大众都想要交通工具的国家。世界上几乎所有的电动自行车都在中国。
对汽车的需求是一个自然的进步，中国在过去几年里已经花费了近5000亿元人民币将自己打造成为一个生产电动汽车的国家。这表面上是为了自己的市场（以及解决气候/空气质量问题），但中国已经意识到世界其他地区也需要电动汽车，其市场的潜在规模将改变世界。

The other factor is that China controls about two-thirds of the world market for battery production. Even if other countries want an electric car industry, there’s a more than even chance they will buy materials or finished batteries from China, and these components are very expensive in electric vehicles. They also have limited life (average five years, currently), with resale and replacement also being very profitable for China.
The final factor is the speed at which the Chinese car industry has transformed itself over the past decade or two. It is nothing short of mind-blowing.

另一个因素是，中国控制着世界电池生产市场约三分之二的份额。即使其他国家想要发展电动汽车产业，他们也有可能需要从中国购买原材料或成品电池，而这些部件在电动汽车中非常昂贵。它们的寿命也有限（目前平均为五年），转售和更换对中国来说也是非常有利可图的。
最后一个因素是中国汽车行业在过去十年或二十年中自我转型的速度，这简直令人振奋。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

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Robert Vannrox
Lives in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China (1989–present)
Easy, easy answer.
China BY FAR. Not only is the number of EV vehicles (public, and private) at all levels far greater than what is available in the USA, but if you include EV scooters and tri-wheels, the number is on the order of 50 times that of USA.
China has so many manufacturers of EV vehicles that it is mind boggling. Personally, I love the x-peng and wei brands, but there are so many too choose from, it’s insane!

简单，答案太简单了。
中国遥遥领先。中国不仅各级电动汽车（公共和私人）的数量远大于美国，而且如果包括电动滑板车和三轮车的话，其数量大约是美国的50倍。
中国有如此多的电动汽车制造商，这简直令人难以置信。就个人而言，我喜欢小鹏和魏这两个品牌，但选择太多太多了，太疯狂了！

X-Peng
Wei
Aito
Chengyu

小鹏
魏
问界

Chengyu
Today, China is both the largest manufacturer and consumer of motor vehicles in the world. That figures, considering the bustling population and the booming industrialization. There are many electric vehicle companies in China.
You can clearly see what they offer in models, styles and sizes. You will see why China is the country to look up to when it comes to the manufacture of electric cars.
Yeah. Sounds like I am an enthusiast. Well, I am. I just bought a hybrid car last month. And I just about went out of my mind trying to figure out which model to buy.

今天，中国既是世界上最大的汽车制造商，也是最大的汽车消费国。考虑到熙熙攘攘的人口和蓬勃发展的工业化，这是有道理的。中国有许多电动汽车公司。
你可以清楚地看到他们提供的型号、款式和尺寸，你会明白为什么在电动汽车制造方面，中国是值得仰慕的国家。
没错，听起来我是个发烧友。嗯，我是。我上个月刚买了一辆混合动力汽车，仅仅想知道该买哪种型号就让我差点崩溃了。
BYD 比亚迪

BYD stands for Build Your Dreams. For a company that started back in the early 1990s as a battery recharging company, it has really come far. Today, they not only make rechargeable Lithium ion batteries for mobile phones and other consumer electronic devices, but they have also released more than 100,000 units of electric vehicles into the market.
Their most popular car is the Denza, and it seems to be sweeping the market by storm. This car is similar to Tesla 3 even in price. This company has brought engineers from Ferrari and other leaders in the performance vehicle industry in the world.

比亚迪
比亚迪主张“构建你的梦想”。对于一家早在20世纪90年代初就作为电池充电公司起步的公司来说，它已经取得了长足的进步。如今，它们不仅为手机和其他消费电子设备制造可充电的锂离子电池，它们还向市场投放了超过10万辆电动汽车。
他们最受欢迎的汽车是腾势，它似乎正在席卷市场。这款车即使在价格上也与特斯拉Model 3相似。这家公司引进了来自法拉利的工程师和世界上高性能汽车行业的其他领导者。

BYD is not only a producer of electric sedans, vans and SUVs, but they have tens of thousands of buses and trucks in service in various places in the world, including North America. Today, BYD is ranked as the number one electric vehicle manufacturer in the world. In the US, BYD is a publicly listed company with 60 percent of its shares owned by American investors.
Official website: : https://en.byd.com

比亚迪不仅是电动轿车、面包车和SUV的生产商，而且在世界各地（包括北美）有成千上万辆公交车和卡车在运营。如今，比亚迪已成为全球排名第一的电动汽车制造商，它是一家在美国上市的公司，其60%的股份由美国投资者持有。
官方网站：https://en.byd.com
SAIC MOTOR 上汽集团

With more than $3 billion set aside for EV investment, this Shanghai based motor maker ranks top in the list of Chinese electric car companies. Since 2011, this company has been in a partnership with General Motors, something that has helped SAIC to target international markets. It has been making a lot of headway into India and other Asian markets. This is a state-owned motor vehicle maker, which has been in the market for decades.

上汽集团
这家总部位于上海的汽车制造商预留了超过30亿美元用于电动汽车投资，在中国电动汽车公司排行榜上名列前茅。自2011年以来，该公司一直与通用汽车（General Motors）建立合作伙伴关系，这有助于上汽集团瞄准国际市场。它在印度和其他亚洲市场取得了很大的进展。它是一家已经上市几十年的国有汽车制造商。

Some of SAIC’s flagship products include ROEWE RX8, a stunning SUV with sunroof, nice headlights and many more features. It also owns MARVEL X, another groundbreaking electric SUV. They also have buses, vans and trucks under their portfolio. Their business spreads over passenger and commercial vehicles. Their portfolio keeps growing and today, they have sold millions of vehicles all over the world.
Official Website: SAIC MOTOR

上汽的一些旗舰产品包括荣威 RX8，这是一款具有天窗、漂亮的大灯和更多令人惊叹的功能的SUV。它还拥有另一款开创性的电动SUV MARVEL X。他们的系列产品中还有公共汽车、货车和卡车，他们的业务遍及乘用车和商用车。他们的产品线在不断增长，今天，他们在世界各地售出了数百万辆汽车。
官方网站：SAIC MOTOR
FAW 中国一汽

FAW has representation in more than 100 countries in the world. From Africa, Asia and other parts of the world, you will find the FAW brand on many roads. Completed in 1956, you can imagine just how much headway the First Automobile Works has made into our roads from that time to the present. If you check on their website, you will see a section for innovation. There, you can learn about their strategy for electric vehicles and their vision for the future. Part of their mission statement says that they want to evolve today’s dreams into tomorrow’s reality.

中国一汽
一汽在全球100多个国家设有代表处。从非洲、亚洲到世界其他地区，您将在许多道路上找到一汽的产品。中国一汽于1956年投产，你可以想象它从那时到现在取得了多大的进展。如果你查看他们的网站，你会看到一个创新部分。在那里，你可以了解他们的电动汽车战略以及他们对未来的愿景，他们的使命宣言中有一部分说他们想把今天的梦想变成明天的现实。

In line with their mission statement, FAW has opened different centers in different cities to deal with certain aspects of innovation. There is the Advanced Technical Innovation Center in Beijing, which was established in 2017. Then there is the AI R & D, which was established in 2017 in Silicon Valley, California in the US. Their Forward-looking Technology R & D Center in Munich, Germany was also opened in 2017 to spearhead innovation into the future aspects of the motor vehicle industry.

根据他们的使命宣言，一汽在不同城市开设了不同的中心以处理创新的某些方面。北京有2017年成立的先进技术创新中心，还有2017年在美国加州硅谷成立的人工智能研发中心。它们位于德国慕尼黑的前瞻性技术研发中心也于2017年成立，以引领汽车行业未来方面的创新。

Some of their flagship vehicle brands include OLEY, BESTURN B30, FAW BESTURN X40 and FAW BESTURN B50. They have sedans, crossover SUVs, full SUVs and even limousines that are fully electric under their fold. Bingo, Hongqi, Sitech and HAIMA are some of their most popular electric vehicle brands.

Official website: 中国第一汽车集团有限公司
他们的一些旗舰汽车品牌包括OLEY、BESTURN B30、一汽BESTURN X40和一汽BESTARN B50。他们有轿车、跨界SUV、全尺寸SUV，甚至是全电动的豪华轿车。红旗、Sitech和HAIMA是他们最受欢迎的电动汽车品牌。
官方网站：中国第一汽车集团有限公司

Ok, t’s starting to sound like I am promoting Chinese EV’s. Well, they are AWESOME!
There are tons of websites and vehicle offerings, and it’s really overwhelming, but I digress. The fact is that China is very well involved in the Green Movement, and EV is the norm in China. To think otherwise is to show true ignorance of reality.

好吧，听起来好像我在推广中国电动汽车。好吧，这只是因为它们太棒了！
中国有大量的网站和汽车产品，这真的让人应接不暇，但我离题了。事实上，中国很好地参与了绿色运动，电动汽车是中国的常态。不这样想就是对现实的真正无知。

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Kevin McCarthy, Partner/co-host of nationally syndicated Car Pro radio show. carprousa.com，Lives in Dallas, TX
Well, China doesn’t really dominate the electric car market today. This year China is expected to sell 1,000,000 EVs while in the U.S., that number is 400,000, despite China having roughly four times the population of the USA. To date they have not been an exporter but according to the L.A. Times, “Big, state-controlled Chinese automaker GAC Motor plans to start selling a gas-powered seven-passenger SUV priced around $40,000 in the U.S. next year. The company said more models will follow that vehicle, called the GS8 — including all-electric cars.

好吧，中国并没有真正主宰现在的电动汽车市场。今年中国预计将销售100万辆电动汽车，而在美国这一数字是40万辆，但中国的人口大约是美国的四倍。虽然到目前为止，他们还不是一个汽车出口国，但据《洛杉矶时报》报道，“中国大型国有汽车制造商广汽传祺计划开始在美国销售一款售价约4万美元的汽油动力的七座SUV”。该公司表示，将有更多的车型效仿这款名为GS8的汽车，包括全电动汽车。

But a rough road lies ahead. Chinese automakers have tried to enter the U.S. market before and failed, crippled by sub-par quality, failure to meet tough U.S. safety standards, lack of consumer awareness and ill-conceived import partnerships.”

但是前路是曲折的，中国汽车制造商此前曾试图进入美国市场，不过由于质量不达标、未能达到美国严格的安全标准、缺乏消费者意识以及对进口伙伴关系考虑不周，最终以失败告终。”

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Joseph Boyle, lives in California (1988-present)
As with ICE cars, it means Chinese auto makers have the huge China market and are successfully competitive in developing countries’ markets, while developed countries make their own and import from other developed countries. Most existing auto makers have plans for electric although I think Tesla will continue to lead them.

和燃油车一样，这意味着中国汽车制造商拥有巨大的国内市场，在发展中国家的市场上具有较强的竞争力，而发达国家则自己生产汽车并从其他发达国家进口。大多数现有的汽车制造商都有电动汽车的计划，尽管我认为特斯拉将继续领先他们。

China trade is politically sensitive enough that a push into developed markets would be expensive and resisted. The fact that Chinese autos haven’t already penetrated developed markets says something, besides Japanese and Korean brands already doing it very well.
How about looking at just battery supply? Tesla started with technology from Panasonic. European and Detroit makes will probably have some combination of local production and Asian partnerships.

中国的贸易在政治上非常敏感，因此进入发达市场的代价高昂，而且会受到抵制。除了日本和韩国品牌已经做得很好之外，中国汽车尚未打入发达市场这一事实说明了一点。
看看电池的供应情况怎么样？特斯拉从松下的技术起步，而欧洲和底特律的汽车制造业很可能会把本地生产和亚洲的合作伙伴结合起来。

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Bruce A McIntyre, I grew up as a motorhead in Detroit, built hotrods all through my teen years，Lives in Bucks County, PA
First of all, it hasn’t happened yet. There is a lot of change going on, and there is no reason to assume that they will dominate the EV market. Sure, it’s quite possible that they will have a very significant impact on both batteries as well as EVs. Even when China becomes a major world player, and even if they come close to dominating the battery for cars market, they will not dominate the global market for EVs because there are a lot of very smart people working to make that not happen.

首先，这还没有发生，虽然有很多变化正在进行中，但没有理由认为他们将主导电动汽车市场。无疑，它们很有可能会对电池和电动汽车产生非常重大的影响。但即使中国成为一个主要的参与者，即使他们接近主导汽车电池市场，他们也不会主导全球电动汽车市场，因为有很多非常聪明的人正在努力使这一点不成为现实。

Now it’s true that US automakers have virtually abandoned the “sedan” portion of the car maket, and have lost global dominance of the car market altogether, there are a number of players in Europe and Asia who are working very hard to not have done to them, what they did to the US market.
China will still have to compete on the world stage, and not just in China.

事实上，美国汽车制造商实际上已经放弃了汽车市场中的“轿车”部分，它们完全失去了汽车市场的全球主导地位，欧洲和亚洲的一些汽车制造商正在非常努力地工作以避免美国的覆辙。
中国仍将不得不在世界舞台（而不仅仅是在中国）上与其他厂商竞争。

Quora User
I still cannot understand the push for electric cars, they use energy from polluting generating plants, the users are going to be low miles commuters and the CO2 lifecycle emissions are only slightly better than hybrids.

我仍然无法理解电动汽车的发展趋势，它们使用的能源来自排放污染的发电厂，使用者将是近距离的通勤者，二氧化碳的排放量也只比混合动力汽车略好。

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Yan Zhu, knows Mandarin Chinese
China is the world’s largest auto market and also a leader in the electric vehicle (EV) business. There are about 3 million electric vehicles in the world, and two-thirds of them are produced and sold in China. The development of electric vehicle sales in China is even more remarkable. In 2011, China sold only 8,159 electric vehicles, but in 2015 this figure soared to 331,092. The production of electric vehicles and other non-petrol vehicles in the Chinese market increased to 500,000 in the first half of this year. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2040, China will account for more than 40% of global electric vehicle sales. But as of now, this is only a small part of the global market for the automotive and light truck.
Also Read: Ford CEO: China Will Take the Lead in Electric Vehicle Area

中国是世界上最大的汽车市场，也是电动汽车行业的领导者。全球约有300万辆电动汽车，其中三分之二在中国生产和销售。中国电动汽车销售的发展更是令人瞩目，2011年，中国仅售出了8159辆电动汽车，但2015年这一数字飙升至331092辆。今年上半年，中国市场电动车等非汽油车的产量增加到50万辆。国际能源署预测，到2040年，中国将占全球电动车销量的40%以上。但截至目前，电动汽车只占全球汽车和轻型卡车市场的一小部分。
另请阅读：福特首席执行官：中国将在电动汽车领域处于领先地位（链接）

With the continuous development, the car purchases in China is rising sharply. The number of new licenses issued per month is also over 1.5 million. This has exacerbated environmental pollution and increased the growing volumes of oil imports, and daily imports have grown to almost 9 million barrels.
Electric vehicles are a practical option. Although 80% of China’s electricity still comes from coal, electric vehicles are relatively clean, while reducing the demand for oil. More importantly, electric vehicles also have the potential to become a new source of employment and export earnings.

随着经济的不断发展，中国的汽车购买量正在急剧上升，每月发放的新牌照数量也超过150万张。这加剧了环境污染，增加了日益增长的石油进口量，中国的日石油进口量已增长到近900万桶。
电动汽车是一种实用的选择。尽管中国80%的电力仍然来自煤炭，但电动汽车相对清洁，同时减少了对石油的需求。更重要的是，电动汽车还有潜力成为新的就业和出口收入来源。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Some large cities in China are implementing subsidies and restrictions to promote the development of electric vehicles. EVs were exempted from purchase tax from 2014 to 2017, and the government has extended the tax exemption to 2020. In addition, the central government has launched a consumer subsidy program.
The limited battery capacity and corresponding range of travel remain an obstacle to electric vehicles, requiring additional charging stations and support infrastructure. China plans to build 12,000 charging stations by 2020 to accommodate 5 million electric vehicles.

中国的一些大城市正在实施补贴和限制措施，以促进电动汽车的发展。2014年至2017年，电动汽车免征购置税，政府已将免税期延长至2020年。此外，中央政府还启动了消费者补贴计划。
有限的电池容量和相应的行驶范围仍然是电动汽车发展的障碍，这意味着它需要额外的充电站和基础设施。中国计划到2020年建设1.2万个充电站，服务500万辆电动汽车。

Meanwhile, the strength of China’s battery sector will further consolidate this industry. In fact, the country is already the world’s largest producer of electric vehicle batteries. It also controls a significant portion of the supply chain, such as raw materials, chemical processing and other parts. Caspar Rawles, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said, “The largest risk/concern to the supply chain is the control of the raw materials, particularly cobalt, lithium and graphite. China controls vast sections of much of the battery supply chain, from mining the raw materials through to processing and finally to cathode/cell production.”
There is no doubt that the energy transformation with Chinese characteristics is already underway.

同时，中国电池行业将进一步巩固这一产业。事实上，中国已经是世界上最大的电动车电池生产国。它还控制着供应链的很大一部分，如原材料、化学加工和其他部分。基准矿产情报公司分析师卡斯帕·罗尔斯表示：“供应链面临的最大风险/担忧是对原材料的控制，尤其是钴、锂和石墨。中国控制着电池供应链的大部分环节，从原材料开采到加工，最后到阴极/电池生产。”
毫无疑问，中国特色的能源转型已经在进行中。

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Daniel Crain, obsessed car guy, R8, Cayman, Aston Martin Vantage (traded), and many others，Lives in New Jersey1974–present
I think the answer is unknown at this point.
China doesn’t necessarily dominate electric vehicles at the moment, but they have at the federal level devoted significant national resources to electric transportation for sure. And while there are more pure electrics sold in China, they also have around 1.4 billion citizens, so the market is 4 times the size of the US and the EU as well. At the moment, it has little impact on the US industry for a variety of reasons.

我认为目前的答案是未知的。
目前，中国未必主导了电动汽车的发展，但他们在国家层面上确实为电动交通投入了大量的国家资源。尽管在中国销售的纯电动产品更多，但他们有大约14亿公民，因此他们的市场规模是美国和欧盟的4倍。目前，由于多种原因，中国汽车对美国工业几乎没有影响。

China is not an exporter of cars to the US for now at least. While it doesn’t export its indigenous brands to much of the west, it does do manufacturing for tons of western brands, but not in the car business. So it would take a number of years for any Chinese manufacturer to set up a complete operation, including distribution, parts, service, etc, in the US or EU, if the political environment would even allow it in the near future. Many others have tried, and most have failed.

至少在目前，对于美国而言，中国还不是汽车出口国。虽然它没有向西方大部分地区出口本土品牌的汽车，但它确实为大量的西方品牌制造了产品。因此，即便在不久的将来政治环境允许，任何一家中国制造商要在美国或欧盟建立起一个完整的业务（包括分销、零部件、服务等）也需要数年的时间。许多其他人都尝试过，但他们大多数都失败了。

Also, China has a long way to go to even satisfy its internal potential from a market size standpoint. They behave differently than Japan did in the post WW2 era, where the Japanese Ministry of Industry and Technology made growing their market share in the US a national initiative between government and industry, as it brought much needed capital into Japan. Internal consumption is now a priority, and if you’ve ever been in any Chinese major city (I’ve been to many), industrial pollution is astonishing. So electric transportation will provide a much needed respite from the incredible air pollution there.

此外，从市场规模的角度来看，中国要满足其内部潜力还有很长的路要走，他们的行为与二战后的日本不同。二战后，日本的工业和技术部将扩大其在美国的市场份额作为政府和工业界之间的一项全国性举措，因为这为日本带来了急需的资金。而在中国，国内消费现在是重中之重，如果你去过中国的任何一个大城市（我去过很多），你会发现工业污染是惊人的。因此，电动交通工具将为那里难以置信的空气污染提供急需的缓解措施。

Another aspect that’s observed and written about but not really focused on, is that China has made a number of moves that signal that it doesn’t want to become a slave to the oil industry like much of the developed world is at this point. So it all fits that electric vehicles are a good fit for what it appears at least the people in China who think about energy dependency, pollution, and congestion are concerned about.

另一个被观察和报道但并未真正受到关注的方面是，中国已经采取了一些举措，表明它不想像许多发达国家那样成为石油工业的奴隶。因此，至少在中国，电动汽车对那些考虑到能源依赖、污染和交通拥堵的人是一个非常好的选择。

I suspect that over time, some Chinese auto company will try to sell cars in the US or possibly the EU. The American car industry is not unique. It has the same vulnerabilities and strengths that the European and Japanese industries have, from a technology, labor cost, and national pride standpoint.
Oddly enough, not everyone realizes that Volvo Cars is in fact majority owned by Geely, which is a large Chinese car company. They also bought a large stake in Daimler (Mercedes parent) and own a majority of Lotus (yes, that Lotus).

我怀疑，随着时间的推移，一些中国汽车公司会试图在美国或欧盟销售汽车。美国汽车工业并非独一无二，从技术、劳动力成本和民族自豪感的角度来看，它具有欧洲和日本汽车工业所具有的同样的弱点和优势。
奇怪的是，并不是每个人都意识到沃尔沃汽车实际上是中国大型汽车公司吉利的控股公司，它们还购买了戴姆勒的大量股份，并拥有莲花（LOTUS）的大部分股份。

Erica Wong
Supposedly GAC (Guangzhou Automobile Company) will be the first to sell a Chinese branded vehicle in the USA starting next year. With looming tariffs though, this may not happen.
Where Geely And Chery Failed, China's GAC Could Finally Crack The U.S. Auto Market

据推测，广州汽车公司将从明年开始率先在美国销售中国品牌的汽车。不过由于迫在眉睫的关税，这种情况可能不会发生。
在吉利和奇瑞失败的地方，中国广汽将打入美国汽车市场（链接）

Daniel Crain
Yeah, I saw that earlier this year. Interestingly, Geely may be the first to actually succeed in many ways, as they have distribution, parts, support, and logistics in place with Volvo already in place. Its not that dissimilar to the strategy that Fiat used with Chrysler to some extent, leveraging their existing dealer network to build up volume for Fiat and Alfa.

是的，我今年早些时候看到了这条消息。有趣的是，吉利可能是第一个在许多方面真正取得成功的公司，因为他们的分销、零部件、技术支持和物流都已经就位，而沃尔沃也准备好了。这与菲亚特与克莱斯勒在某种程度上采用的策略没有什么不同，后者正利用现有的经销商网络为菲亚特和阿尔法·罗密欧扩大销量。

Much like Hyundai did when they entered the market years ago (it was very bumpy), companies like GAC would have to have a seriously credible product with a killer price to get people to actually notice. Hyundai almost died here because even though their product was super cheap, it was unreliable and junky in the beginning.

就像现代汽车几年前进入美国市场时所做的那样，像广汽这样的公司必须有一款非常可靠，价格有竞争力的产品，才能让人们真正注意到。现代汽车差点在这里死掉，因为尽管他们的产品非常便宜，但一开始非常不可靠，被认为质量很差。
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Robert Stodieck
Subject to rapid change, but the Tesla-Panasonic “gigafactory” is the only major automobile li-ion battery factory outside of China at the moment.

受制于日新月异的变化，特斯拉-松下的“超级工厂”是目前中国以外唯一一家大型汽车锂离子电池工厂。