网友讨论:英国是否还有成为超级大国的可能?
2022-10-26 吕洞宾! 10912
正文翻译





评论翻译
Alex Anderson Follow
The UK already is a global superpower, so your question is completely wrong.
We were number 1 in the world in the Soft Power 30 Rankings (which is all power that is non military in nature) and the UK has been number 1 for several years ahead of China, Russia, the US (we are currently number 2 for 2019 with France above us, but we have been number 1 for far more years than them overall)
Here is the lix:
Soft Power 30
There is more to being a superpower than just having lots of tanks and troops. Many countries have large armies yet get conquered by seemingly small nations.

英国已经是一个全球超级大国了,所以你的问题是完全错误的。
在软实力30强排名(所有非军事性质的力量)中,我们是世界第一,英国在之前几年一直是超越中国、俄罗斯和美国的存在(2019年我们排名第二,法国在我们之上,但我们排名第一的时间比他们的总体时间长得多)。
下面是链接:
软实力排名30强(链接)
要成为超级大国,不仅仅是要拥有大量的坦克和军队。许多国家拥有庞大的军队,但却被看起来很小的国家征服。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Being a superpower is about having global diplomatic reach, cultural and business influence, being able to get along with others and playing a massive influence in the world. The UK leads the world in many areas, including high tech engineering, education and science, financial markets (e.g forex, derivatives, international bonds, insurance), business services, oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, jet engine design, carbon neutral technologies to name a few.
We also have the Commonwealth of Nations which we head, and 3 independent military partnerships outside of NATO, including the UK Joint Expeditionary Force, the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force with France, and defence agreements with Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand. So on the military front we are right at the top league with massive strategic reach across all of Europe and the whole world.
The UK is a global superpower today and will continue to be a mighty force to be reckoned with.

成为超级大国意味着拥有全球外交影响力、文化和商业影响力,能够与他人和睦相处,并在世界上发挥巨大的影响力。英国在许多领域都处于世界领先地位,包括高科技工程、教育和科学、金融市场(如外汇、衍生品、国际债券、保险)、商业服务、石油和天然气、采矿、制药、喷气发动机设计、碳中和技术等。
我们还领导着英联邦国家,以及北约之外的3个独立军事伙伴关系,包括英国联合远征军,与法国的联合远征军,以及与新加坡、澳大利亚、马来西亚和新西兰的防务协议。因此,在军事方面,我们在整个欧洲乃至世界范围内都处于领先地位。
如今,英国是一个全球超级大国,并将继续成为一股不可忽视的强大力量。

Anonymous
I am sorry I just saw this and needed to comment. What on earth are you on about. Your whole comment is ridiculous and inaccurate.
USA did not even join the war until around 2 years after it actually started. Even when they did start, its not like they ‘won’ the war because it carried on for another ~4 years. UK held off the Germans and won the Battle of Britain, against a much larger air force. This was all while US ‘didn’t realise there was a world war going on’. USA has a land mass almost equal to the whole of Europe. Therefore, it has a large resource. So, of course after a 2 year war, with modern and devastating weaponry, the UK needed more resources. No nation could last forever in a war it has prepared for. It requires men to fight, resources to keep those men fighting and of course, money.

我很抱歉,我刚刚看到这个,就不得不发表评论。你到底在说什么,你的整个评论是荒谬和不准确的。
美国是在直到二战真正开始的两年后才加入战争的。即使他们真的一开始就参战了,他们也不像是他们所说的那样“赢得”了战争,因为战争又持续了大约4年。是英国击退了德国人,打败了更强大的德国空军,赢得了不列颠空战。这一切都发生在美国“没有意识到世界大战正在进行”的时候。美国的国土面积几乎相当于整个欧洲。因此,它有很大的资源储备。所以,在经历了两年的战争之后,即便是拥有现代化的毁灭性武器的英国也需要更多的资源。任何一个国家都不可能在一场自己准备不足的战争中永远存在下去。它需要人去战斗,需要资源让这些人继续战斗,当然,还需要钱。

The German army was built with the purpose of taking over Europe and was something the Germans were planning for years. They struck hard and fast. They then had access to a lot more resources. So yes, to win the war an alliance was required, but it wasn't to help prevent Germany take over Britain… they had already given up by the time US started in the war. It was required to liberate the rest of Europe which had been taken over and remove a fascist from power.
A US puppet? The US still works with the UK in terms of special forces, intelligence gathering, scientific breakthroughs and much more. What do you mean the UK nuclear deterrent is controlled by the US? what nonsense is that? The submarines that carry the trident missiles are UK made, controlled by UK with a Royal Navy crew based at UK naval ports. Those submarines answer to the Prime Minister of the united Kingdom, not the US.

二战前德国建立军队的目的就是接管欧洲,这是德国人计划了多年的事情。他们迅速而有力地出击,因此他们可以获得更多的资源。所以,是的,为了赢得战争,联盟是必需的,但这并不是为了帮助英国人抗击德国入侵英国,美国在战争开始的时候就已经放弃了。它被要求解放被占领的欧洲其他地区,并把那个法西斯分子赶下政权。
英国是美国的傀儡吗? 美国至今仍在特种部队、情报收集、科学突破等方面与英国合作。你说英国的核威慑力量被美国控制是什么意思? 这是什么鬼话? 携带三叉戟导弹的潜艇是英国制造的,由英国皇家海军在英国海军港口控制。那些潜艇听命于英国首相,而不是美国。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


UK has one of the highest military budgets in the world, around 7th I believe. The UK still has an influential economy, being in top 10 strongest economies in the world. A great contributor to space technology, and many other technologies.
So I repeat, I am sorry but your comment is totally misguided an lacking facts. The UK is still a key player in the world with much influence. On the question as to whether it could become a superpower again? Maybe not no, given the technologies of today and the alliances such as NATO and UN. The dye is set. In the developed world, the UK would never invade or take over countries in the present day as it did hundreds of years ago. The chances are only countries that still have large land masses, and therefore resources, will be able to remain or become super powers. However, never say never. Empires come and go.
But the UK will always be a big contributor to the world, and one of the strongest countries in the world.

英国是世界上军事预算最高的国家之一,我记得在世界排名第7位左右。英国仍然是一个有影响力的经济体,是世界上最强大的10大经济体之一。它对太空技术和许多其他技术的发展都做出了巨大贡献。
所以我重复一遍,我很抱歉,但你的评论完全是错误的,缺乏事实。英国仍然是世界上具有重要影响力的国家。关于英国能否再次成为超级大国的问题? 考虑到今天的技术以及北约和联合国这样的联盟的存在,也许不会。在发达国家,英国绝不会像几百年前那样,在今天入侵或接管其他国家。只有那些仍然拥有大量土地和资源的国家,才有可能保持或成为超级大国。但是,永远不要说永远。帝国起起伏伏。
但英国永远是世界的重要贡献者,永远是世界上最强大的国家之一。

Peter Hawkins Follow
No, it doesn't. Our lack of superpowerness is nothing to do with the deficit either (America has a large deficit, and is the world's only hyperpower).
We are not a superpower because:
1. Economy not big enough to be one because
2. Population not big enough
3. So we can't afford the size of military that is necessary to be a superpower or hyperpower
In the past, we circumvented points 1 and 2 by having a large empire that we could exploit for men and treasure. This funded our awesome navy, which was the backbone of our military might. We also had the advantage of being first movers in the industrial revolution.
The only way we will ever be a superpower again (if you care about that sort of thing. Personally I don't) would be as part of a United States of Europe. Not much chance of that happening anytime soon.

不, 它不是。我们不能成为超级大国也与赤字无关(美国有巨大的赤字,是世界上唯一的超级大国)。
我们不是超级大国,因为:
1. 我们的经济规模还不够大
2. 我们的人口不够多
3. 所以我们负担不起成为超级大国所需的军事规模
在过去,我们通过拥有一个庞大的帝国而满足了第1点和第2点。这为我们强大的海军提供了资金,这是我们军事力量的中坚力量。我们还拥有工业革命先行者的优势。
我们再次成为超级大国的唯一途径(如果你关心这类事情的话,我个人认为这不可能了)是成为欧盟的一部分。但这种情况短期内不大可能发生。

Paul M Calvert Follow
Why on earth would we want to? We've seen the film, bought the book and worn the t-shirt. Done it once, never again.
It's expensive, thankless and costly in lives. America wanted to be top dog and we were tired after fighting two world wars and happy to give it all up. It's no coincidence that the "fall" of empire coincided with the rise in the living standards of the common people.
The potential is there, certainly, but what's the point? Where's the profit or advantage in spending a goodly proportion of your GDP on arms when another country is happy to do so, and for what?
By the way, in terms of culture and soft power we are a super power. Far cheaper.

我们为什么要这么做? 我们看过这部电影,买了这本书,穿了那件t恤。我们已经做过一次了,但绝不会再做第二次。
它的代价是昂贵的,吃力不讨好的,甚至还要付出生命的代价。美国想要称霸世界,而打了两次世界大战之后我们累了,所以很高兴放弃一切。帝国的“衰落”与平民生活水平的提高同时发生,这绝非巧合。
当然,我们的潜力是存在的,但有什么意义呢? 当另一个国家很乐意这样做的时候,把GDP的很大一部分花在武器上有什么利润或优势呢?
顺便说一下,就文化和软实力而言,我们一直是一个超级大国。而这方面的成本要便宜得多。

Siddharth Pathak Follow
No - at least not in the next few centuries.
The last time UK became the top dog was because the Asian powers were going through their natural cyclical downturn: the Qing dynasty was overstretched by the 1850s, the Mughal dynasty was similarly weakened by the tides of time, and Southeast Asian dynasties largely followed them, with the exception of Ayutthya in Siam (modern day Thailand) and Konbaung dynasty in modern day Myanmar. But even Konbaung dynasty was overpowered by the British due to the Pyrrhic victory it had over Ayutthya.

不,至少在接下来的几个世纪里不会。
上一次英国成为霸主,是因为亚洲列强正在经历他们的自然周期衰退期: 清朝在19世纪50年代过度扩张,莫卧儿王朝同样被时间的潮汐削弱,东南亚的王朝基本上都在效仿他们,除了暹罗的大城王朝(今天的泰国)和今天的缅甸的康邦王朝。但即使是康邦王朝也因为打败了阿尤提亚而败给了英国人。

The European powers just happened to be in Asia around the time when a number of very powerful dynasties were undergoing through their cyclical downturn. But since humans are very lousy observers of understanding changes and trends over time periods running longer than the average lifespan, we attribute the rise of the Western powers occurring due to some inherent superiority these powers held over the Asian and African (and the rest of the world) regions. This characterization, which is believed almost to be a fact completely leaves out the role colonialism and the massively skewed power dynamics had in making European powers the de facto top dogs of the world. UK became a superpower backed by an unwilling Subcontinent of a rich bounty of resources, became the world’s largest trader bootstrapping the natural dominance India held, and by the end of the 1800s destroyed India’s industrial base to expand its economy.

欧洲列强恰好在亚洲当时的一些非常强大的王朝正在经历周期性的衰退期间进入。但是,由于人类在理解超过平均寿命的时间外的变化和趋势方面是非常糟糕的观察者,我们将西方强国的崛起归因于这些强国对亚洲和非洲(以及世界其他地区)拥有一些固有的优势。这种被认为几乎是事实的描述完全忽略了殖民主义和严重扭曲的权力动态在使欧洲列强成为事实上的世界霸主方面所起的作用。英国成为了一个超级大国,得到了一个拥有丰富资源的次大陆的支持,凭借印度拥有的自然优势成为了世界上最大的贸易商,并在19世纪末摧毁了印度的工业基础以扩张其经济。

All of these factors were chief reasons behind the elevation of UK to becoming a superpower.
But times have changed, and no longer are Asian countries in a quagmire. They are expanding their economies, leveraging newer political organization systems and throwing away the dinosaurs of the past, and in the process dramatically altering the Eurocentric world that most of the people in the West consider as given.
In such an environment, if the UK tries to achieve dominance by revisiting its past methods, I am sorry to say, but it will just trigger a very widespread vengeance which the former colonies wouldn’t hesitate to take it to the state of war. Majority of narratives in India, China and other countries which suffered badly from colonialism are about how the Europeans gained an unfair advantage by pillaging the local civilizations and destroying the essence of being Chinese or Indian, and the same time destroying the identities’ self esteem. That is the reason why development in these countries, apart from being about elevating local living standards, are also about “showing” to the world, and claiming their lost self respect in the world.

所有这些因素都是英国成为超级大国的主要原因。
但时代变了,亚洲国家不再陷入泥潭。他们正在扩张自己的经济,利用更新的政治组织体系,抛弃过去的老古董,并在这个过程中戏剧性地改变了大多数西方人认为理所当然的以欧洲为中心的世界。
在这样的环境下,如果英国试图通过重走过去的道路来获得统治地位,我很遗憾地说,这只会引发广泛的报复,前殖民地会毫不犹豫地把它带到战争状态。在遭受殖民主义重创的印度、中国和其他国家,大多数近代历史叙事都是关于欧洲人如何通过掠夺当地文明、摧毁中国人或印度人的本质,以及同时摧毁身份的自尊,来获得了不公平的优势的。这就是为什么这些国家的发展不仅是为了提高当地的生活水平,也是为了向世界“展示”,在世界上找回他们失去的自尊。

Trying to revisit the ancient colonial era then, will be like playing with fire, and for the sake of average and commoner British people, I hope it never comes to this, because a conflict with two countries - India and China - will involve a country with 64 million people going to war with an incredibly irate, angry and emotional two countries with a combined population of 2500 million people - basically, almost complete destruction of the British identity.
The coming sets of powers which will replace the current unipolar structure will never take lightly to any attempts made by their former colonial master to become the world’s overlord again. So I would say for the sake of everyone, particularly the British people, let’s not go towards superpower dreams.

试图重拾古老的殖民时代,就像玩火自焚一样,为了普通的英国人,我希望永远不要发生这样的事情,因为与印度和中国这两个国家的冲突,将导致一个6400万人口的国家与两个愤怒的、加起来有25亿人口的国家开战——基本上,结果是完全摧毁英国的存在。
即将取代当前单极格局的一批大国,也绝不会对其前殖民主子再次成为世界霸主的任何企图掉以轻心。所以我想说,为了所有人,尤其是英国人民,让我们放弃走向超级大国的梦想。

Ryan Hussein Follow
Is this a joke? Every country has the potential to be a superpower, Uk even has a better chance as they have so many good things that they don’t wish to take. Let's be true here that the British may not be the most heard of in wars or economics. But there standing is beyond far were the USA is. Forget Covid-19 and all that as it caused the military personal decline and military loss. If it wasn’t that the British would be on the top 5 right now! The British are well known for there long-standing empire, the worlds largest in fact. Many people indeed underestimate the British empire due to hate or bias movements. But I love the British empire and UK and I can state that they have a huge potential to become a world superpower, many might argue of USA or Russia that will stand in there way. Yes it's true the UK will not stand a chance against them, but they will put up a fight indeed;

这是在开玩笑吗? 每个国家都有成为超级大国的潜力,英国甚至有更好的机会,因为他们有这么多好东西,只是他们不想去抓住这个机会。让我们承认,英国人在战争或经济领域可能不是最广为人知的,但是它与站在顶端的美国的差距并不大。忘记Covid-19和所有这些吧,因为它导致了军人的个人素质的衰落和军队损失。如果不是这样,英国人现在就能排在世界前五名了! 英国人以其悠久的帝国而闻名,事实上它曾是世界上最大的帝国。许多人确实因为仇恨或偏见而低估了大英帝国。但我爱大英帝国和现在的英国,我可以说它有成为世界超级大国的巨大潜力,许多人可能会认为美国或俄罗斯会阻碍它。是的,英国确实没有能力对抗它们,但英国人一定会进行战斗;

The royal navy is the best navy in the world as it invented great tactics in the old ages and made stunning ships will rule the seas and was scary to commonfolk. In fact, some countries feared there navy. Now other countries rule as they have adapted to these tactics rather than making there own. See? Countries like the USA or Russia use British tactics in naval warfare because it's ingenious! Don’t forget their army as well, sure it's not the best but it is a decent fine standing army in the looks of many, it has suffered defeats and stalemates but by far they have had great generals who lead the way into combat causing ever-lasting victories worldwide. Plus, I have never heard of the US controlling some of the British nukes as there mostly brit made, Don't you forget about WWII alright. The British stood alone for 2 years and the germans had to form an alliance with 3 countries in order to pull Britain back. The British managed to defeat the Germans in the battle of Britain signalling to the world that the Germans could be defeated.

英国皇家海军是世界上最好的海军,因为它在古代发明了伟大的战术,制造了令人惊叹的船只,并统治了海洋,这对普通国家来说是可怕的。事实上,一些国家一直害怕他们的海军。现在,很多国家都已经学会了英国的海战策略,而不是制定自己的策略。看到了吗? 像美国或俄罗斯这样的国家在海战中依然使用英国战术,因为它很巧妙! 别忘了他们的军队,当然它不是最好的,但在很多人看来,这是一支体面的优秀常备军,它经历过失败和僵局,但迄今为止,他们有伟大的将军,能够带领他们进入战斗,在世界范围内取得了持久的胜利。另外,我从来没有听说过美国控制了英国的一些核武器,因为这些核武器大部分是英国制造的。别忘了二战,好吗? 英国人孤军奋战了2年,德国人不得不与3个国家结成联盟,才能和英国打的有来有回。英国人在不列颠空战中成功击败了德国人,这向全世界表明,德国人是可以被打败的。

They held firm, and then we have countries like the USA taking all the glory and coming in last minute (which is true). Yes, they have done stuff to help Britain in the war, but everyone forgets pearl harbour that the USA declared war on Japan and then the german Reich declared war on the USA. The US would never join without that happening and also to make the British seem less powerful at this stage. In fact, there is so much of what the British don't I can't explain it all here. The British are a world superpower in the dark held by countries who hate it. They will rise up, I have faith in the queen and the country and the people will rise up and show the world the great empire it once was, but better.

他们坚持住了,然后我们才和美国这样的国家一样获得了所有的荣誉,并等到了战争最后一刻的到来(这是真的)。是的,他们在战争中帮助了英国,但是每个人都忘记了珍珠港事件,美国对日本宣战,然后德国对美国宣战。如果没有这种情况,美国是不会参战的,这也是它为了让英国在当时不能再那么强大。事实上,英国人不懂的东西太多了,我无法在这里全部解释清楚。英国是黑暗中的世界超级大国,被憎恨它的国家把持着。他们会奋起反抗的,我相信女王,这个国家和人民会奋起反抗向世界展示它曾经的伟大帝国的延续,一个更美好的帝国。

Sergio Fajardo Follow
Great Britain is now just Britain and very soon because brexit it will become just England. But let's go straight to the point, in order to be a superpower a country nowadays needs an annual GDP in excess of 12–14 trillion USD something that currently only the U.S and China possess or the E.U if you add the GDP of all it's members!. As of January 2020 the UK’s GDP is only 2.8 trillion USD, so you would need exponential economic growth of 500% GDP growth in a decade just to sit in the big boys table, for something like that to happen the next technological revolution must start in the UK and the country must open it's doors to millions of immigrants just like the Americans did and the odds for that To happen are non existing just look at how many big tech companies are British 0! And the attitude towards welcoming more foreigners into the country…
Like my American friends say the British are great at inventing sports but very bad at playing them; a quick example the computer and the internet were developed by British scientists and look which country is controlling the industry.
So anything is possible who knows maybe the starts aligned and Britain become great Britain again, but in all honesty the path is to become little Britain.

英国现在还是英国,但它很快就会因为脱欧的影响而变成英格兰。但让我们直奔主题,为了成为超级大国,一个国家现在需要拥有超过12-14万亿美元的年GDP,如果你把所有成员国的GDP加起来,现在只有美国和中国或欧盟拥有这个GDP 体量! 截至2020年1月, 英国的国内生产总值只有2.8万亿美元, 所以英国需要指数级增长十年的GDP,然后完成500%的经济增长率。而这一切的发生前提是未来的技术革命必须开始在英国,并且中国必须打开它的国门让数以百万计的移民移居英国就像美国现在一样, 这种情况发生的几率有多大呢?现有看看有多少大型科技公司在英国?答案是0 ! 这怎么能吸引更多外国人进入这个国家……
就像我的美国朋友说的,英国人擅长发明体育运动,但不擅长运动; 举个例子,计算机和互联网是由英国科学家开发的,再看看哪个国家控制着这个产业。
然而,一切皆有可能,谁知道呢? 也许有一天,英国会重新成为伟大的英国,但说实话,我们目前的发展道路是变成小英国。

Peter Follow
In what time frx? Ever is a long time.
But, first, the deficit has nothing to do with it. The USA has a big deficit and is a superpower.
As others have pointed out, the UK has a relatively small population and a quite small land area. Those factors make it more difficult to be a superpower, but they were there when the UK was a superpower. There have been other superpowers that were from small and not very populous countries as well e.g. the Netherlands during the 17th century, Spain just before that.
England/UK was a superpower because it totally dominated the seas (which let it dominate trade) and because it is an island (which let it devote relatively little to land forces). The Netherlands also became a superpower through trade.
That route is not open now.
But there may be new routes to superpowerdom that we don’t know of yet. Things change. They change in ways that we aren’t even imagining.
However, in the near term, there seems to be no way for the UK to be a superpower.

什么时间? 曾经的一段很长的时间。
但首先,赤字与此无关。美国有很大的赤字,但它是一个超级大国。
正如其他人所指出的,英国的人口和土地面积都相对较少。这些因素加大了它成为超级大国的难度,但在英国成为超级大国时,这些因素就存在了。还有一些超级大国来自人口不多的小国,比如17世纪的荷兰,以及之前的西班牙。
英国曾经是超级大国,因为它完全控制了世界海洋(这让它主导了国际贸易),因为它是一个岛屿(这让它可投入的陆地力量相对较少)。荷兰也通过贸易成为了超级大国。
那条路现在还没有开通。
但可能还有我们不知道的通往超级大国的新途径。事物是变化的。它们会以我们想象不到的方式发生变化。
然而,在短期内,英国似乎不可能成为超级大国。

Bob Gartside Follow
Yes, of course it does..
But it would have to upxe its means and methods of production. That would take capital, lots of capital. Those who have not operated businesses always neglect the need for capital, and the difficulty of continuously generating it and feeding it back into business.
Plant and equipment wears out, or is outdated by developments by others. One example with which I am familiar is the Dobcross Loom. This originated sometime around 1870, it was an innovative woollen weaving loom with multiple shuttles loaded with different coloured threads which were used in a variable sequence under the control of ‘chains’ of differently positioned cams to produce patterns in the woven cloth. The engineering was impressively High Victorian, the manufacture to the highest standards, and the service life outstandingly long. A large plant was built (in the village of Dobcross, where else) and looms produced in quantities. It used to amuse me to visit ‘craft weaving’ inefficienty mills in deepest, darkest, corners of Wild Wales which were producing special ‘folk’ designs on Dobcross Automatics, modern machines in their time, but now outmoded by more modern designs by other loom makers.

是的,当然有。
但它必须更新其生产手段和方法。这需要资金,大量的资金。那些没有经营过企业的人总是忽视了对资本的需要,以及不断产生资本并将其回馈到企业中的困难。
工厂和设备磨损了,或者其他人的开发导致自己的技术过时了。我熟悉的一个例子是多布克罗斯织机。它起源于1870年左右,是一种创新的羊毛织布机,有多个梭,载着不同颜色的线,在不同位置的凸轮“链条”的控制下,以可变的顺序使用,在梭织布上产生图案。它产生于令人印象深刻的维多利亚时代,是当时制造业的最高标准,而且使用寿命非常长。一家大型工厂(在多布克罗斯村,还有别的地方)建成,大量生产织布机。在威尔士最深处最黑暗的角落里,参观那些效率不高的“手工织造”作坊让我觉得很有趣。这些作坊用当时的现代机器多布克罗斯自动织机生产特殊的“民间”设计,但现在却被其他织机制造商更现代的设计淘汰了。

For the Dobcross Loom Works never upxed their machine design. What had been good enough for grandad was good enough for us. — in the meantime other manufacturers, maybe in other countries, were investing in new machine designs and gradually rendering the venerable Dobcross designs comparatively inefficient and slow. Dobcross did not invest in new designs of loom, largely because the money which should have gone to investment was absorbed non-productively by taxation. After a proper return for the owners of the business, and after tax, there was no money left over for investment. (The arrangements to determine the splits between profits, dividends, and investment were made by politicians and civil servants with no knowledge of the realities of business finance).
Thus, my brothers and sisters, the United Kingdom consumed its own capital and ran down its own productive industry.

因为多布克罗斯织机厂从未更新过他们的机器设计。对祖父来说足够好的东西对我们来说也足够好。——与此同时,其他制造商,也许是其他国家的制造商,都在投资新的机器设计,逐渐使古老的多布克罗斯设计变得相对低效和缓慢。多布克罗斯没有投资于新的织机设计,主要是因为本应用于投资的钱被税收以非生产性的方式吸收了。在给企业所有者适当的回报和税后,没有剩下的钱可用于投资。(决定利润、股息和投资之间分配的安排是由政治家和公务员制定的,他们对商业金融的现实情况一无所知。)
因此,我的兄弟姐妹们,联合王国消耗了自己的资本,搞垮了自己的生产工业。

Francis Follow
Never say never.
If you’d said in the 14th Century that the UK would become the world superpower for a while everyone would have considered that statement ridiculous. It was a small island off the coast of Europe (which was itself a bit of a backwater) with limited natural resources, few people, a not terribly good economy, and no strategic location. For that matter it wasn’t even the UK back then - the Scots being independent. That’s not even a country likely to become a great power, never mind a superpower.
Could the UK do it again? It’s about as unlikely to do it again as it was the first time; now at least it’s relatively educated and high tech - but tech spreads much faster. In order to do it it would have to play a gamechanger. Which means that lightning would have to strike twice in the same place. It can not even hope to compete with the US, China, or Russia directly in terms of production or manpower and Germany would be a huge stretch.
Should it try? Being a superpower isn’t actually good for the citizens. It focusses the government and spending on things that don’t directly help the citizens of that country (I’m not saying that it wasn’t worse to be in another country in the Empire than it was in Britain - but that didn’t mean that the average Brit did at all well; most of the gains went to the aristocracy).

如果你在14世纪说英国会在一段时间内成为世界超级大国,每个人都会认为这种说法很荒谬。它是一个远离欧洲海岸的小岛(欧洲本身有点闭塞),自然资源有限,人口稀少,经济不太好,没有战略位置。就这点而言,那时候苏格兰甚至不属于英国,因为苏格兰是独立的。这甚至不是一个可能成为大国的国家,更不用说超级大国了。
英国还会重拾辉煌吗? 第二次发生的可能性和第一次差不多; 至少现在这里的教育程度相对较高,工业的科技含量也较高,而且科技传播得更快。为了做到这一点,它必须发挥改变游戏规则的作用。这意味着闪电必须在同一个地方击中两次。它甚至不能指望在生产或人力方面直接与美国、中国或俄罗斯竞争,而德国将是一个巨大的挑战。
应该试一试? 成为超级大国实际上对公民没有好处。它把重心放在那些对本国公民没有直接帮助的事情上是毫无意义的(我并不是说英国再次成为帝国会比现在的英国更糟——但这并不意味着普通的英国人就能过得更好; 因为大部分收益都会流向贵族阶层)。

Mihai Craciun Follow
Nope. Its relatively small population and relative economic insignificance (all relative to Asia of course), as well as limited space to expand and limited resources hinder its growth. Even the fact that they were able to become so powerful in the first place is nothing short of a miracle.
The only two options it had to maintain miltary and economic super power levels were the following:
·maintain its position in the EU and not leave. As it is now, Britain chose to isolate, to the advantage of the US, which will exert even more influence.

不可能。它的人口相对较少,经济地位相对不高(当然,这些都是相对于亚洲而言的),以及有限的扩张空间和有限的资源阻碍了它的发展。甚至他们能够在第一时间变得如此强大这一事实也可以说是一个奇迹。
要保持军事和经济超级大国的水平,英国只有两个选择:
·保持在欧盟的地位,不离开。而不是像现在这样,英国选择了孤立,这有利于美国,美国将在欧盟发挥更大的影响力。

·now this is my favorite alt history path. The Imperial Federation, which even without India, and only with Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the islands in the Carribean and the Pacific, and potentially parts of South Africa, would have had a huge population today of about 150 million people, give or take a few million. Keeping important trade nodes, such as Singapore or Ceylon, would have boosted its economy as well. It still wouldn’t have been near the US or China, but it would surpass Japan. The feasibility of such a scenario is very complicated; tbh, the only for it to happen is if somehow the Anglosphere colonies don’t develop strong national identities.
I digress. In the short term (50–100 years to come), hell no. It is simply mathematically impossible. But hey, it is the UK we’re talking about, they’ve done it time and time again and gone against the odds. At the same time, India and China are extremely powerful, not even the US will able to keep them at bay for long.

·现在是我最喜欢的历史畅想环节。如果英国还是曾经的大英帝国,即使没有印度,只要加上加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、加勒比海和太平洋的岛屿,以及南非的部分地区,今天英国的人口也将达到1.5亿人左右,误差可能只有几百万。保留重要的贸易节点,如新加坡或锡兰,也会促进经济发展。它仍然不能接近美国或中国,但它将超过日本。这种设想的可行性是非常复杂的; 唯一可能发生的是盎格鲁圈殖民地没有发展出强大的民族认同。
我跑题了。在短期内(50-100年以后),绝对不会。这在数学上是不可能的。但是,嘿,我们谈论的是英国,他们一次又一次地创造了奇迹,克服了困难。与此同时,印度和中国非常强大,即使是美国也无法长期牵制他们。

Luc Rolland Follow
Does the UK need to become a super-power again?
The answer is indeed NO.
Because, this would mean to return to an Empire meaning colonisation again and the world does not want the UK to reestablish another Empire like we do not want Italy to relaunch the Roman Empire.
You do not need to be a super-power to be a great place to live in.

英国需要再次成为超级大国吗?
答案确实是否定的。
因为,这将意味着英国需要回到那个帝国时代,意味着它需要再次殖民世界。没有人希望英国重新建立另一个帝国就像我们不希望意大利重新建立罗马帝国一样。
你不需要成为一个超级大国才能成为一个伟大的居住地。

Now, the UK is a great place to live in as it continues to produce a certain quality of life through a good compromise between services and strong economy with a very GDP. It has grown a top GDP per capita as well and this is what is important, to stay productive (and not overdo it with excessive work). It has come to its true position in the world which is proportional to its population. This was done with a certain concentration into media, banking, petrol and military where the UK dominates the scene pushing the anglospheric vision to the whole world. Now, this is done with the help of the USA indeed.
It is still a great place since it still has some level of social services and free universal health care but these are quickly fading away with the conservative right politics. For example, it is time to ave free tuition fees for all Universities and to nationalise the train systems which are the worst in West Europe.

现在,英国是一个非常适合居住的地方,因为它完成了服务业和强劲的经济之间的良好协调,持续创造了高质量的生活环境,GDP非常高。它的人均GDP也达到了最高水平,这是重要的,保持生产力(而不是过度工作)。它已经达到了它在世界上的真正地位,这是与它的人口成正比的。它的重心在一定程度上集中在媒体、银行、石油和军事领域,英国在这些领域占据主导地位,将英国圈的愿景推向整个世界。现在,这确实是在美国的帮助下完成的。
它仍然是一个伟大的地方,因为它仍然有一定程度的社会服务和免费的全民医疗保健,但随着保守的右翼政治力量崛起,这些正在迅速消失。例如,现在是时候对所有大学实行免费,并将西欧最糟糕的铁路系统国有化了。

Now, the UK has its challenges and the situation is difficult since Tatcher abandonned the manufacturing industry and the agricultural world; and this is not a good thing to put all the eggs in the same basket as this can easily fade away like we can observe with the North Sea running out. Germany and Japan prove that you need to have a good industry and be diversified. Nowadays, the UK is not diversified enough. This is reflected by the high levels of poverty.
There will no problems if the UK learns to diversify its economy and revamp its social services.
It will not be a super-power but it can imitate its Scandinavian allies and improve the good quality of life of everyone.

现在,英国面临着挑战,自从英国放弃了制造业和农业,情况就变得很困难了; 把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里并不是一件好事,因为这很容易造成满盘皆输。德国和日本的经历证明,你需要有一个优质和多元化的产业结构。如今,英国还不够多元化。这反映在高贫困率上。
如果英国学会了经济结构的多元化和改革社会服务,它就不会出现问题。
它不会成为一个超级大国,但它可以模仿它的北欧盟友,去提高每个国民的生活质量。

Stephen Jackley Follow
Look at how ‘super-powers’ come to be…
Equality, shared purpose and vision (the US, when founded)
Immense natural resources or investment into education to build ‘human capital’ (the US, Russia, Japan, China….)
Genuine innovation, ‘enlightenment’, and international expansion (previous European superpowers, some present ones)
The UK has none of these, only a few pockets that allow it to maintain some semblance of international influence. It is a nation of great and rising inequality; where investment into education and other key ‘civil platforms’ is exponentially falling; where most people only earn enough to be semi-comfortable after paying their bills.
The fate and feelings of young people are ultimately what determines a nation’s future. In the UK, most won’t be able to buy their own home, and the majority feel disillusioned and disempowered. Greater political considerations (boundary changes, an ineffective and fragmented opposition, etc) will likely make it into a ‘one party state’, ruled over by a Party that unrelentingly serves the interests of a monied elite.
Brexit will benefit that minority, but the prospects of the majority will be further reduced, especially for younger generations. For all these reasons, any power Britain might cling to as a former superpower is not sustainable.

看看“超级大国”是如何形成的……
平等、共同的目标和愿景(美国成立之初)
巨大的自然资源或投资于教育以建立“人力资本”(美国、俄罗斯、日本、中国....)
真正的创新,“启蒙”,以及国际扩张(以前的欧洲超级大国和现在的新兴大国)
英国没有这些,它只有少数几个可以让它保持某种国际影响力的地方。这是一个不平等现象严重且日益严重的国家; 它对教育和其他关键“民用平台”的投资呈指数级下降趋势; 在那里,大多数人在付完账单后只能勉强过上半舒适的生活。
年轻人的命运和感受最终决定了一个国家的未来。在英国,大多数人将无法购买自己的房子,大多数人感到幻灭和丧失权力。更大的政治考虑(边界的改变,无效和分裂的反对派等)可能会使它成为一个“一党制国家”,由一个党派统治,无情地让英国社会服务于有钱精英的利益。
英国退欧只使得少数人受益,但多数人的前景被进一步降低,尤其是对年轻一代而言。基于所有这些原因,英国作为前超级大国可能依附的任何力量都是不可持续的。

很赞 1
收藏