如果纳粹德国从未输掉战争,世界会是什么样子?(一)
2022-10-27 翻译熊 6573
正文翻译
What would the world be like if Nazi Germany had never lost the war?

如果纳粹德国从未输掉战争,世界会是什么样子?

评论翻译
Khalid Elhassan
As horrible as one might expect. The Holocaust? That was just Hitler's warmup act. Far worse, encapsulated in Generalplan Ost , was planned after a German victory.
Hitler's main goal in WW2 was to conquer lebensraum from the mostly Slavic races in the east and populate that land with Germans, whom Hitler felt were too hemmed in and crowded in Central Europe. He envisioned a German Reich along these lines:

和人们想象的一样可怕。大屠杀?那只是希特勒的热身行动。更糟糕的是,Generalplan Ost计划是在德国取得胜利后制定的。
(注:东方总计划(德语:Generalplan Ost)是纳粹德国制作的一份计划,主要内容是围绕波兰战役和苏德战争之后如何处置占领地区。德国计划通过移民使得这些地区德国化,并流放斯拉夫人。东部综合计划诞生于1941年巴巴罗萨作战开始之时。具体内容是将波兰及俄罗斯的3,000万—5,000万斯拉夫人强制迁移至西伯利亚等地,同时利用消灭犹太人和战争、饥荒等方式减少斯拉夫人的人口,而因人口减少所产生的空地则由德国人移民所补充。——维基)
希特勒在第二次世界大战中的主要目标是征服东部主要是斯拉夫种族为德国人腾出生存空间,因为希特勒觉得这些人在中欧太闭塞太拥挤了。他设想的德意志帝国是这样的:

The fact that those lands were already populated by their current occupants? Between German efficiency and Nazi murderousness, that was seen as manageable. The populations of the conquered territories were untermenschen/ sub-humans, anyhow, so time for ambitious ethnic cleansing.
Generalplan Ost envisioned the extermination of 50% of Latvians, 50% of Estonians, 50% of Czechs, 60% of Russians, 65% of Ukrainians, 75% of Belorussians, 85% of Poles, 85% of Lithuanians, and 100% of Latgalians. The remainder were to be Germanized if judged sufficiently Aryan, enslaved and put to work as helots for the "Master Race" settlers, or expelled beyond the Urals.
A world dominated by people who could calmly plan the murder, enslavement, and ethnic cleansing of hundreds of millions of innocents, would not have been a pleasant one.

事实上,那些土地当时已经被占领者定居了。在德国的效率和纳粹的凶残之间,这被认为是可控的。被征服领土上的人都是下等人,无论如何,是时候进行雄心勃勃的种族清洗了。
Generalplan Ost计划设想消灭50%的拉脱维亚人,50%的爱沙尼亚人,50%的捷克人,60%的俄罗斯人,65%的乌克兰人,75%的白俄罗斯人,85%的波兰人,85%的立陶宛人,以及100%的拉脱维亚人。其余的人如果被认为是雅利安人,就会被日耳曼化,成为“优等种族”定居者的奴隶,或者被驱逐出乌拉尔山脉。
一个由能够平静地策划谋杀、奴役和种族清洗数亿无辜者的人主宰的世界,不会是一个令人愉快的世界。

Bill Ness
Excellent answer Khalid and truly terrifying. I read about the GPO a few years ago and was amazed that the mass extermination of groups of peoples was detailed in such a ruthless clinical manner yet presented in a way not unlike some of the business reports I complete for my work.

答得好。真的很可怕。几年前,我读到关于GPO的报道,惊讶地发现,大量种族灭绝以如此无情、客观的方式被详细描述,而呈现方式居然与我为工作完成的一些商业报告没有什么不同。

Charlie Mincher
That is the gist. By the time he was finished with all that, 100% of the "defective" Germans would have probably been the next or at least sterilised, then it would be the homeless Germans, the unemployed Germans

这就是要点。当他完成所有这些工作的时候,“有缺陷”德国人可能已经成为下一个,或者至少会被绝育。
届时无家可归的德国人、失业的德国人都将是目标。

Matti Porkka
Not to mention the non-German allies etc. They would have started with pressure to their allies in first going after all the initial targets of genocide and slowly extended it.
Germanization program would have been extended to their allies as well with the inevitable result that those who were not deemed Aryan enough or who weren't becoming sufficiently "German" would have faced slavery or annihilation. And even their murder was often incredibly cruel when victims were not just murdered but also subjected to cruel human experiments.

更不用说那些非德国盟友了。他们会首先向其盟友施压,首先打击所有最初的种族灭绝目标,然后慢慢扩大。
德国化计划也会延伸到他们的盟友,不可避免的结果是,那些被认为不够雅利安人或不够“德国人”的人将面临奴役或灭绝。甚至他们的谋杀也常常是令人难以置信的残忍,受害者不仅被谋杀,还被置于残酷的人体实验中。

Shantanu Ray
Do you think the Finns and Estonians would have been targetted by the Nazis eventually ?

你认为芬兰人和爱沙尼亚人最终会成为纳粹的目标吗?

Matti Hirvola
In the Molotov-Ribbentropp pact the Nazis showed no interest whatsoever in Finland, Estonia etc. However, their attitude changed during the winter war when they realised that the Finns were able to defend their country against the Soviets. So the Nazis thought that Finland might after all be an useful ally for them and urged the Finns to negotiate a peace treaty with Stalin. They would be rewarded later on, when Germany would join the fight against the Soviets. The Finns took the advise, since the front would not have lasted any longer and there was no help coming from the West.

在《莫洛托夫-里宾特洛甫条约》中,纳粹对芬兰、爱沙尼亚等国毫无兴趣。然而,他们的态度在冬季战争中改变了,因为他们意识到芬兰人有能力保卫自己的国家不受苏联人的攻击。所以纳粹认为芬兰可能终究会成为他们有用的盟友,并敦促芬兰人与斯大林谈判达成和平条约。
当德国加入对抗苏联的战斗时,他们会得到回报。芬兰人接受了这个建议,因为前线无法持续太久,而且西方也不会提供帮助。

Guntur Wijayanto
Sounds pretty much like the "discovery" (and subsequent) of the Americas.

听起来很像美洲的“大发现”(以及随后的发现)。

Brandon Lee
Your history is very inaccurate. The european settlers in the americas did not intetionally spread germs to the natives. That is incorrect information.

你的历史非常不准确。美洲的欧洲殖民者并没有故意把细菌传播给当地人。这是不正确的信息。

Stefan Hill
There was one event when blankets from a hospital were handed over to indians with the aims to infect them.

有一次,一家医院的毯子被交给了印第安人,目的是感染他们。

Brandon Lee
Historians now agree that if that happened (which is debatable), it was just an anecdotal happening and certainly was not what caused millions to die.

历史学家现在一致认为,如果那真的发生了(这是有争议的),那也只是一个传闻,肯定不是导致数百万人死亡的原因。

Stephen L
I don't believe that ever happened. First of all, who in their right mind would handle blankets infected with small pox? Second, if the intent was to murder a group of Indians, why unleash an uncontrollable disease? You can't stop small pox from infecting whomever is exposed to it. And although the death rate was far higher for Native Americans than Europeans or their American descendants, it was still pretty high among these groups too.

我不相信那是真的。首先,有哪个头脑正常的人会处理感染了天花的毯子?
第二,如果意图是谋杀一群印第安人,为什么要释放一种无法控制的疾病?你无法阻止天花感染任何接触过它的人。尽管印第安人的死亡率远高于欧洲人或他们的美洲后裔,但其他群体的死亡率也相当高。

Adam Hernandez
I get tired of hearing of reading this same nonsense over and over on Quora. The Europeans certainly were murderous and duplicitous but never conceived of genocide through contagion. The extreme mortality rates of the European diseases was a tragic by product of the merging of two alien ecospheres.

我厌倦了在Quora上一遍又一遍地读同样的废话。欧洲人当然是凶残和奸诈的,但从未想过通过传染进行种族灭绝。欧洲疾病在美洲的极端死亡率是两个陌生生态圈合并后的悲剧产物。

Anthony O Hughes
Having studied World War II for nearly a quarter of a century now, I find questions like this always interesting to answer and people are often surprised to learn that the world where Nazi Germany won the Second World War wouldn’t be too far off from the one we know today, at least in theory.
To better understand, take a large rock and row to the middle of a lake, then drop the rock over the side. Where the rock hits the water is a very noticeable splash and a crest, however as the wave moves farther out, it gets smaller and by the time it reaches shore it is almost non-existent. Such is the same with Nazi Germany winning World War II in 1945…by 2016, the effects of this would not be as great, compared to the world we know today.

我研究第二次世界大战已有近四分之一个世纪了,我发现这样的问题总是很有趣,人们常常惊讶地发现,纳粹德国赢得第二次世界大战的那个世界,至少在理论上,与我们今天所知的世界相差不远。
为了更好地理解,拿一块大石头,划船到湖中央,然后把石头扔出去。当岩石击中水面时,会有非常明显的飞溅和波峰,然而,随着海浪向远处移动,它会变小,当它到达海岸时,几乎不存在。这和1945年纳粹德国赢得第二次世界大战是一样的……到2016年,与我们今天所知的世界相比,它的影响将不会那么大。

EUROPE
The aim of Nazi Germany’s territorial expansion was the concept of Lebensraum (“Living Space”) with Hitler’s stated goal being for Nazi Europe to extend to the Ural mountains. In a world where Nazi Germany wins, Hitler’s armies have achieved this aim. The territories of the east are now “Reich Commissions” under the direct control of the Nazi government in Europe. Life in the east would be harsh for the locals who would exist under ruthless Nazi rule, racial policies, and extermination directives. Comparing this to Soviet Russia it would have been worse, but not by that much.
Great Britain of course has fallen, but Hitler had no desire to annex this country since he felt the British people were equal to the Germans in terms of superiority. A Fascist England, led by an extremely subservient pro-Nazi government would most likely have come to power to enforce Nazi rule.

让我们一个大陆一个大陆来看,欧洲:
纳粹德国领土扩张的目标是Lebensraum(“生存空间”)的概念,希特勒的既定目标是让纳粹欧洲延伸到乌拉尔山脉。在纳粹德国获胜的世界里,希特勒的军队实现了这一目标。东部的领土现在是欧洲纳粹政府直接控制下的“帝国委员会”。东部的生活对当地人来说将是残酷的,他们将生活在残酷的纳粹统治、种族政策和灭绝指令之下。与苏联的生活相比,情况会更糟,但不会差太多。
英国当然沦陷了,但希特勒并不想吞并这个国家,因为他觉得英国人和德国人在优越感上是平等的。一个法西斯主义的英国,由一个极端顺从的亲纳粹政府领导,很可能上台实施纳粹统治。
图:英国法西斯冲锋队制服


Poland as a state ceases to exist, as do the smaller countries of Liechtenstein and Luxembourg. Germany’s allies Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria would survive and be rewarded with territory and “protection” as long as they remained client states to Nazi Germany. Hungary would most likely have been occupied and annexed, given that country’s lukewarm reception to the Nazis to begin with. Norway would also have remained under direct Nazi control given that country’s desirable natural resources and access to the North Sea.
Yugoslavia would be annexed by both Germany and Italy and it is likely that Greece would have been taken over by Italy as well as part of a new Italian Empire. Thus by 2016 the Balkans crisis and genocides of the modern age might not have occurred, but Nazi racial policy would have killed just as many victims.

波兰作为一个国家将不复存在,列支敦士登和卢森堡等小国也将不复存在。德国的盟友芬兰、罗马尼亚和保加利亚将会生存下来,只要它们仍然是纳粹德国的附庸国,就会得到领土和“保护”作为回报。考虑到匈牙利一开始对纳粹的冷淡态度,它极有可能被占领并吞并。考虑到挪威的自然资源和通往北海的通道,挪威也将继续处于纳粹的直接控制之下。
南斯拉夫将被德国和意大利吞并,希腊很可能被意大利接管,成为新意大利帝国的一部分。因此,到2016年,巴尔干半岛危机和现代的种族灭绝可能不会发生,但纳粹的种族政策会杀死同样多的受害者。
图:斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇,纳粹南斯拉夫帝国委员会主席


Vichy France controls West Africa and has been allowed to continue to exist as a vassal state under Nazi control in Europe. The fate of the Low Countries and Denmark is hard to determine. Many in the Nazi government saw occupation of these countries as temporary, but Hitler wanted full annexation. The more likely outcome by 2016 is a type of confederation, possible called “Burgundia” (a name Heinrich Himmler suggested) which exists as a Nazi protectorate.
Spain, Portugal, and Switzerland as neutral countries would have remained untouched; however, the Nazi government controls the Straits of Gibraltar and strict access to the Mediterranean Sea.

维希法国控制着西非,并被允许继续作为纳粹控制下的欧洲附属国存在。低地国家(比利时)和丹麦的命运很难决定。纳粹政府中的许多人认为对这些国家的占领是暂时的,但希特勒想要完全吞并这些国家。到2016年,更有可能出现的结果是一种联邦,可能被称为“勃艮第”(海因里希·希姆莱建议的名字),作为纳粹的保护国存在。
西班牙、葡萄牙和瑞士作为中立国将不会受到影响;然而,纳粹政府控制着直布罗陀海峡和地中海的严格通道。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


THE MIDDLE EAST
At Europe’s frontiers lies Turkey untouched, having been neutral during the war. Saudi Arabia, receptive towards Nazi Germany’s anti-Jewish policies and her authoritarian ways, dominates the Middle East and controls all oil in an Israeli-free world. There is no Islamic radicalism as we see today, the Iranian revolution never took place in Persia (Iran), while Iraq and Syria are controlled by the Saudis in a fundamentalist Caliphate-type government confederation with little freedom.

中东
土耳其在欧洲的边界上毫发无损,在战争中一直保持中立。沙特阿拉伯接受纳粹德国的反犹太政策和独裁方式,统治着中东,控制着一个没有以色列的世界的所有石油。没有我们今天看到的伊斯兰激进主义,伊朗革命从未在波斯(伊朗)发生过,而伊拉克和叙利亚则被沙特控制在一个原教旨主义哈里发式的政府联盟中,几乎没有自由。
图:沙特国王和他的王子们是纳粹德国的坚定支持者


AFRICA
North and Central Africa have become colonies of Nazi Germany, Italy, and Vichy France. The decolonization movements of the 1960s were stamped out and local natives live under oppression. It has been speculated that the Nazis would have attempted to exterminate blacks in Africa, but racial policy classified these persons as animals rather than sub-human. Thus, more likely, would have been an apartheid-type system, in which South Africa would have been a strong ally of Nazi Germany.

非洲
北非和中非已经成为纳粹德国、意大利和维希法国的殖民地。20世纪60年代的非殖民化运动被镇压,当地居民生活在压迫之下。据推测,纳粹曾试图灭绝非洲的黑人,种族政策将这些人归类为动物,而不是次等人。因此,更有可能出现的是一个种族隔离式的制度,在这种制度下,南非将成为纳粹德国的坚定盟友。

ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
A weak Russia exists but the Soviet unx collapsed when they surrendered to Nazi Germany. Stalin and his henchmen were arrested as traitors and a second Russian Revolution took place to purge the hard-line communists who had lost the war. What exists today is a pseudo-democratic nation with questionable politics much like we see in the real world. The communist Chinese also took over just as we know today, however there was no Korean or Vietnam War as Russia never moved in to the region to establish communism.
Japan has still lost the war and exists as we know today. Atomic bombs were still dropped, the Philippines liberated, Indonesia and Malaysia restored, and American forces have a strong Pacific presence. The British empire survives in Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, while some Vichy France colonies continue to exist in the South Pacific.

亚太
虚弱的俄罗斯得以存在,但苏联在向纳粹德国投降后解体了。斯大林和他的追随者作为叛徒被逮捕,第二次俄国革命发生了,目的是清洗那些输掉战争的强硬派共产主义者。今天存在的是一个伪民主国家,存在着的政治问题就像我们在现实世界中看到的一样。正如我们今天所知道的,中国也接管了那里,然而没有朝鲜战争或越南战争,因为俄罗斯从未进入该地区建立共产主义。
日本仍然输掉了战争,仍然像我们今天所知道的那样存在着。原子弹仍然被投放,菲律宾得到解放,印度尼西亚和马来西亚得到恢复,美国军队在太平洋地区有强大的存在。大英帝国在新加坡、澳大利亚和新西兰仍然存在,而维希法国的一些殖民地则继续存在于南太平洋。
图:在另一个现实中,弗拉基米尔·普京仍然是俄罗斯总统


NORTH AMERICA
Nazi Germany in fact never intended to invade America and would have had a very hard time doing so in any event. Thus, America survives and is locked into a Cold War except with Nazi Germany instead of the Soviet unx. Canada, where the United Kingdom government relocated after the fall of Britain, is the new heart of the British Commonwealth.
Of interest is that it is highly likely that during the 1970s and 80s, after the death of Hitler and the top World War II Nazis, something very similar to de-Stalinization would have took place in Nazi Germany and perhaps brought about better relations with the US. The Nazi leaders of the 1990s may perhaps have admitted to the Holocaust as well as offered reparations for the victims. Going into the 2000s would have perhaps seen a Gorbachev-like Nazi leader, seeking better relations with the United States, and a Nazi version of perestroika.

北美
事实上,纳粹德国从未打算入侵美国,而且在任何情况下都很难做到这一点。因此,美国生存下来,并被困在冷战中,除了是与纳粹德国,而不是苏联。加拿大是英联邦的新中心,英国政府在英国解体后迁往加拿大。
有趣的是,在20世纪70年代和80年代,希特勒和二战纳粹头目死后,纳粹德国很有可能发生了类似去斯大林化的事情,并可能改善了与美国的关系。20世纪90年代的纳粹领导人可能已经承认了大屠杀,并为受害者提供了赔偿。进入21世纪,也许会出现戈尔巴乔夫式的纳粹领导人,寻求改善与美国的关系,以及纳粹版的改革。

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
Very little change here from what we know, except that Nazi Germany has occupied Cuba to have a western hemisphere base of operations. South American governments, with perhaps the exception of Brazil, are receptive to the Nazis having similar authoritarian-type governments.

中南美洲
这里和我们所知道的没什么不同,除了纳粹德国占领了古巴,在西半球有一个行动基地。也许除了巴西之外,南美各国政府都能接受纳粹拥有类似的独裁政府。

ANTARCTICA AND THE MOON
Unlike the world of today, where Antarctica is off-limits to military activities, both Nazi Germany and America would most likely have established military bases there. Other Antarctica territorial claims, as we see today from Chile and New Zealand, would probably also exist.
Nazi Germany and America would both have reached the moon, but the establishment of permanent bases there would still be several decades away, even with the enhanced technology of Nazi Germany’s weapons program.

极地和月球
不像今天的世界,南极洲是军事活动的禁区,纳粹德国和美国很可能都在那里建立了军事基地。其他对南极洲有领土主张的国家,如我们今天看到的智利和新西兰,可能也会存在。
纳粹德国和美国都已经登上了月球,但即使纳粹德国的武器计划技术得到了提高,在月球上建立永久性基地还需要几十年的时间。
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A world where a Nazi Germany exists in 2016 would certainly be different to what we know today and there would definitely have been high death tolls in the 1950s and 60s as the Nazis finished their racial programs and extermination of populations. But we also have no Korean or Vietnam war and little strife in the Middle East with Al Qaeda and ISIS non-existent. Time perhaps has a way of leveling itself out as the ripples in the pond are barely noticeable the more time passes. But, I still prefer the world we live in today.

今天纳粹德国的世界肯定会和我们今天所知的不同,在20世纪50年代和60年代,当纳粹完成他们的种族计划和灭绝人口时,肯定会有很高的死亡人数。但我们也没有朝鲜战争或越南战争,也没有基地组织(Al Qaeda)和ISIS以及中东地区当前存在的冲突。时间也许有一种平衡自己的方式,就像池塘里的涟漪随着时间的流逝几乎不被注意到一样。但是,我还是更喜欢我们今天生活的世界。

Paul Irving
Nazi occupation of Cuba would have required US acquiescence, & defeating the (Canada-based) Royal Navy. It seems very, very unlikely. Cuba was more or less a US protectorate until its revolution. I am sure the USA would not have accepted it.
The USA developed the atom bomb by 1945 with the help of people & documentation sent by the UK. If the UK had been defeated there is no guarantee that either the people or the documentation would have got away. A US bomb would probably have taken rather longer to develop without that help. Still ahead of the Germans, though.
Without massive Soviet aid after the defeat of Japan (what happened in reality), a Communist victory in China does not seem likely.
Why invade & annex Hungary but not Turkey? Hungary assisted the German invasions of Yugoslavia & the USSR - why punish it for that & make enemies out of allies?

纳粹占领古巴需要美国的默许,并击败(加拿大)皇家海军。这似乎非常非常不可能。古巴在革命前或多或少是美国的保护国。我敢肯定美国不会接受的。
1945年,在英国人和文档的帮助下,美国研制出了原子弹。如果英国被打败了,没有人能保证这些人和文档可以存活。如果没有他们的帮助,美国的炸弹可能需要更长时间才能研制出来。不过还是领先于德国人。
日本战败后,如果没有苏联的大量援助(事实就是如此),共产党在中国的胜利似乎是不可能的。
为什么入侵并吞并匈牙利而不是土耳其?匈牙利协助德国入侵南斯拉夫和苏联,为什么要为此惩罚它和把盟友变成敌人?
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Why gobble up the client states? Slovakia & Croatia had Germany-friendly puppet governments. Best to leave well alone.
Colonies - why grab Spanish & Portuguese colonies? Fascist or semi-fascist governments, friendly or at least neutral. Why make enemies out of friends? Especially since you have some of their colonies being given to countries which fought Germany.
Why give the whole Fertile Crescent to Saudi Arabia? There were locals (e.g. Rashid Ali in Iraq) who were better-organised, better-armed, better-educated, & already inclined to be friendly. Why suppress them & hand over their countries to one of the most backward lots in the region? Yet again, you’re turning friends into enemies for no reason.

为什么要吞并附庸国?斯洛伐克和克罗地亚都有亲德的傀儡政府。最好不要去管它。
殖民地,为什么要攫取西班牙和葡萄牙的殖民地?它们是法西斯或半法西斯政府,友好或至少中立。为什么要把朋友变成敌人?特别是因为他们的一些殖民地被割让给了与德国作战的国家。
为什么要把整个新月沃土给沙特阿拉伯?有些当地人(例如伊拉克的拉希德·阿里)组织更好,装备更好,教育更好,而且已经倾向于友好。为什么要镇压他们,把他们的国家交给该地区最落后的国家之一?又一次,你无缘无故把朋友变成了敌人。

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