世界为气候变化导致的大规模迁移做好准备了吗？
正文翻译
I’ve had an obsession with maps ever since I first sought my bearings in Winnie the Pooh's "Hundred Aker Wood", trying to discover where was "nice for piknicks", and the locations of the characters' houses. My childhood was spent studying and drawing treasure maps, charting imaginary lands and plotting routes to faraway places I longed to visit.
自从我第一次在《小熊维尼》的“百亩森林”里判断方位，试图找到“野餐的好去处”和角色的房屋时，就迷恋上了地图。我小时候喜欢研究和绘制藏宝图、虚幻之地、通往我梦寐以求的遥远国度的路线图。
I’ve had an obsession with maps ever since I first sought my bearings in Winnie the Pooh's "Hundred Aker Wood", trying to discover where was "nice for piknicks", and the locations of the characters' houses. My childhood was spent studying and drawing treasure maps, charting imaginary lands and plotting routes to faraway places I longed to visit.
自从我第一次在《小熊维尼》的“百亩森林”里判断方位，试图找到“野餐的好去处”和角色的房屋时，就迷恋上了地图。我小时候喜欢研究和绘制藏宝图、虚幻之地、通往我梦寐以求的遥远国度的路线图。
Today, my home is plastered with the maps I've collected or been given – reminders of places that are special to me. By my desk, I have a large world map, the continents distinguished from the oceans by their mosaic of colours. Each coloured patch is a country, separated from its neighbour by a neat line drawn onto this two-dimensional representation of our world.
如今，我家里贴满了收集来的或别人给我的地图，提醒我那些特殊的地方。我的书桌旁边有一幅巨大的世界地图，大洲和大洋以各种颜色区分开。在这幅二维的世界地图上，每个色块代表一个国家，并以清晰的线条与邻国分隔开。
如今，我家里贴满了收集来的或别人给我的地图，提醒我那些特殊的地方。我的书桌旁边有一幅巨大的世界地图，大洲和大洋以各种颜色区分开。在这幅二维的世界地图上，每个色块代表一个国家，并以清晰的线条与邻国分隔开。
The borders are cleanly defined, ink separating nationalities destined for different fates. For me, these lines mark exciting possibilities, with the potential for exploration and adventure, to visit foreign cultures with different foods and languages. For others, they are prison walls that limit all possibilities.
国界的划分很明确，利用油墨将各有天命的民族分隔开。对我来说，国界线标志着令人兴奋的可能性：探索与冒险，体验异国文化以及各种饮食和语言。对别人而言，国界是限制一切可能性的监狱围墙。
国界的划分很明确，利用油墨将各有天命的民族分隔开。对我来说，国界线标志着令人兴奋的可能性：探索与冒险，体验异国文化以及各种饮食和语言。对别人而言，国界是限制一切可能性的监狱围墙。
Borders define our fate, our life expectancy, our identity, and so much more. Yet they are an invention just like the maps I used to draw. Our borders don't exist as immutable facets of the landscape, they are not natural parts of our planet, and were invented relatively recently.
国界划分了我们的命运、预期寿命、身份等等。但正如我小时候绘制的地图，国界是一项发明。我们的国界不是一成不变的景观，不是地球上的天然存在，而是近代才出现的发明。
国界划分了我们的命运、预期寿命、身份等等。但正如我小时候绘制的地图，国界是一项发明。我们的国界不是一成不变的景观，不是地球上的天然存在，而是近代才出现的发明。
It can be argued, however, that most of these imaginary lines are not fit for the world of the 21st Century with its soaring population, dramatic climate change and resource scarcity. Indeed, the idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival. They needed their labour and taxes, and emigration still poses a headache for many states.
然而，可以说大多数虚构的国界线不适合21世纪的世界：人口攀升、气候急剧变化、资源稀缺。事实上，利用国界将外国人拒之门外的观念是近代出现的。在过去，国家主要关心的是阻止人们离境而不是入境。他们需要劳动力和税收，迁移出境至今让许多国家感到头疼。
然而，可以说大多数虚构的国界线不适合21世纪的世界：人口攀升、气候急剧变化、资源稀缺。事实上，利用国界将外国人拒之门外的观念是近代出现的。在过去，国家主要关心的是阻止人们离境而不是入境。他们需要劳动力和税收，迁移出境至今让许多国家感到头疼。
There are, however, true human borders set not by politics or hereditary sovereigns, but by the physical properties of our planet. These planetary borders for our mammal species are defined by geography and climate. Humans cannot live in large numbers in Antarctica or in the Sahara Desert, for instance. As global temperatures increase, causing climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather over the coming decades, large parts of the world that are home to some of the biggest populations will become increasingly hard to live in. Coastlines, island states and major cities in the tropics will be among the hardest hit, according to predictions by climate scientists.
然而，世界上存在真正的人类国界，它们不是由政治或世袭君主划分的，而是由地球的物理特征决定的。我们这些哺乳动物的地球国界是由地貌和气候划分的，例如，人类无法在南极洲或撒哈拉沙漠里大量生存。在未来几十年里，随着全球气温升高导致气候变化、海平面上升、极端天气，世界上人口最多的大部分地区将变得越来越难以适合居住。根据气候学家的预测，沿海地区、岛国、热带地区的主要城市将遭受最严重的影响。
然而，世界上存在真正的人类国界，它们不是由政治或世袭君主划分的，而是由地球的物理特征决定的。我们这些哺乳动物的地球国界是由地貌和气候划分的，例如，人类无法在南极洲或撒哈拉沙漠里大量生存。在未来几十年里，随着全球气温升高导致气候变化、海平面上升、极端天气，世界上人口最多的大部分地区将变得越来越难以适合居住。根据气候学家的预测，沿海地区、岛国、热带地区的主要城市将遭受最严重的影响。
Unable to adapt to increasingly extreme conditions, millions – or even billions – of people will need to move.
由于无法适应日益极端的环境，数百万乃至数十亿人将需要迁移。
由于无法适应日益极端的环境，数百万乃至数十亿人将需要迁移。
The most densely populated areas of the planet are clustered around the 25-26th north parallels which has traditionally been the latitude of most comfortable climate and fertile land. An estimated 279 million people are packed into this thin band of land, which cuts through countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, the United States and Mexico.
地球上人口最密集的地区集中在北纬25-26度，这里历来是气候最适宜和土地最肥沃的地区。大约2.79亿人聚居在这片狭长的土地上，横贯的国家包括印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、中国、美国、墨西哥。
地球上人口最密集的地区集中在北纬25-26度，这里历来是气候最适宜和土地最肥沃的地区。大约2.79亿人聚居在这片狭长的土地上，横贯的国家包括印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、中国、美国、墨西哥。
But the conditions here are changing. On average, climate niches – the range of conditions at which species can normally exist – around the world are moving polewards at a pace of 1.15m (3.8ft) per day, although it's far faster in some places. Adapting to the changing climate will mean chasing our own shifting niche – which for much of human history has been within the temperature range -11C to 15C (12F to 59F) – as it migrates north from the equator. True livability limits are the borders we must worry about as the world warms over this century, bringing unbearable heat, drought, floods, fires, storms, and coastal erosion that make agriculture impossible and displace people.
但这里的环境正在发生变化。大体而言，全世界的气候生态位（物种正常生存的环境范围）正在以每天1.15米（3.8英尺）的速度向极地发生偏移，而某些地区的速度更快。我们适应气候变化意味着追寻变化的生态位——在人类大部分历史时期，生态位的温度范围是-11-15摄氏度（12-59华氏度）——生态位从赤道向北方偏移。真正制约可居住性的因素是我们必须担忧的国界，因为本世纪全球变暖导致无法忍受的热浪、干旱、洪水、火灾、风暴、海岸侵蚀，致使农业荒废，人们流离失所。
但这里的环境正在发生变化。大体而言，全世界的气候生态位（物种正常生存的环境范围）正在以每天1.15米（3.8英尺）的速度向极地发生偏移，而某些地区的速度更快。我们适应气候变化意味着追寻变化的生态位——在人类大部分历史时期，生态位的温度范围是-11-15摄氏度（12-59华氏度）——生态位从赤道向北方偏移。真正制约可居住性的因素是我们必须担忧的国界，因为本世纪全球变暖导致无法忍受的热浪、干旱、洪水、火灾、风暴、海岸侵蚀，致使农业荒废，人们流离失所。
Already record numbers of people are being forced to flee their homes with each passing year. In 2021, there were 89.3 million people, double the number forcibly displayed a decade ago, and in 2022 that number reached 100 million, with climate disasters displacing many more people than conflicts. Floods displaced 33 million people in Pakistan this year, while millions more in Africa have been affected by drought and the threat of famine, from the Horn of Africa to the continent's west coast.
每年都有数量空前的人们逃离家园。2021年是8930万人，相当于十年前明确公布数据的两倍。2022年达到1亿人，气候灾害比冲突导致更多的人流离失所。今年，巴基斯坦洪水导致3300万人流离失所，非洲数千万人遭受干旱和饥荒的威胁，包括非洲之角和非洲西部沿岸。
每年都有数量空前的人们逃离家园。2021年是8930万人，相当于十年前明确公布数据的两倍。2022年达到1亿人，气候灾害比冲突导致更多的人流离失所。今年，巴基斯坦洪水导致3300万人流离失所，非洲数千万人遭受干旱和饥荒的威胁，包括非洲之角和非洲西部沿岸。
UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi appealed to global leaders at the COP27 climate change conference to take bold action to tackle the humanitarian consequences of global warming. That change needs to be "transformational" according to the UNHRC. "We cannot leave millions of displaced people and their hosts to face the consequences of a changing climate alone," says Grandi.
在联合国气候变化大会第27次缔约方会议上，联合国难民署高级专员菲利波·格兰迪向全球各国领导人呼吁，采取果敢行动应对全球变暖导致的人道主义后果。联合国人权理事会表示，我们需要“逆转”这些变化。“我们不能让千百万流离失所的人们及其栖息地独自面对气候变化带来的后果”格兰迪说道。
在联合国气候变化大会第27次缔约方会议上，联合国难民署高级专员菲利波·格兰迪向全球各国领导人呼吁，采取果敢行动应对全球变暖导致的人道主义后果。联合国人权理事会表示，我们需要“逆转”这些变化。“我们不能让千百万流离失所的人们及其栖息地独自面对气候变化带来的后果”格兰迪说道。
Without action, hundreds of millions people will have to leave their homes by 2050, according some estimates. One study from 2020 predicts that by 2070, depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, "one to three billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 years".
相关预测表明，如果不采取行动，2050年将有数亿人被迫流离失所。2020年的一项研究预测到2070年，根据人口增长和气候变暖的情况，“预计将有10-30亿人失去6000年来适合人类居住的气候环境”。
相关预测表明，如果不采取行动，2050年将有数亿人被迫流离失所。2020年的一项研究预测到2070年，根据人口增长和气候变暖的情况，“预计将有10-30亿人失去6000年来适合人类居住的气候环境”。
With so many people on the move, will this mean that invented political borders, ostensibly imposed for national security, become increasingly meaningless? The threat posed by climate change and its social repercussions dwarf those surrounding national security. Heatwaves already kill more people than those who die as a direct result of violence in wars.
既然这么多人迁移，这是否意味着以国家安全为名设立的政治国界逐渐失去意义？相比国家安全，气候变化构成的威胁及其社会影响更为重要，死于热浪的人数已经超过战争中的暴力直接导致的死亡人数。
既然这么多人迁移，这是否意味着以国家安全为名设立的政治国界逐渐失去意义？相比国家安全，气候变化构成的威胁及其社会影响更为重要，死于热浪的人数已经超过战争中的暴力直接导致的死亡人数。
Compounding this, the global population is still growing, particularly in some of the regions worst hit by climate change and poverty. Populations in Africa are set to almost triple by 2100, even as those elsewhere slow in growth. This means there will be a greater number of people in the very areas that are likely to be worst affected by extreme heat, drought and catastrophic storms. A greater number of people will also need food, water, power, housing and resources, just as these become ever harder to supply.
雪上加霜的是全球人口仍在不断增长，尤其是气候变化和贫穷最严重的某些地区。到2100年，在其他地区人口增长放缓的同时，非洲人口将增至近三倍。这意味着将有更多的人口生活在这些地区，那里可能遭受最严重的极端酷热、干旱、灾难性风暴。更多的人将缺少粮食、水电、住房、资源，因为这些东西越来越难以供应。
雪上加霜的是全球人口仍在不断增长，尤其是气候变化和贫穷最严重的某些地区。到2100年，在其他地区人口增长放缓的同时，非洲人口将增至近三倍。这意味着将有更多的人口生活在这些地区，那里可能遭受最严重的极端酷热、干旱、灾难性风暴。更多的人将缺少粮食、水电、住房、资源，因为这些东西越来越难以供应。
Meanwhile, most countries in the Global North are facing a demographic crisis in which people are not having enough babies to support an ageing population. Managed mass migration could thus help with many of the world's biggest problems, reducing the number of people living in poverty and climate devastation, and helping northern economies build their workforce.
与此同时，全球北方的大多数国家正在面临人口危机，新生儿的数量不足以支撑老龄化人口。因此，受管控的大规模人口迁移有助于解决许多最重大的全球问题，减少生活在贫困和气候灾难中的人口，帮助北方国家壮大劳动力。
与此同时，全球北方的大多数国家正在面临人口危机，新生儿的数量不足以支撑老龄化人口。因此，受管控的大规模人口迁移有助于解决许多最重大的全球问题，减少生活在贫困和气候灾难中的人口，帮助北方国家壮大劳动力。
But the main barrier is our system of borders – movement restrictions either imposed by someone's own state or by the states they wish to enter. Today just over 3% of the global population are international migrants. However, migrants contribute around 10% of global GDP or $6.7tn (£5.9tn) – some $3tn (£2.6tn) more than they would have produced in their origin countries. Some economists, such as Michael Clemens at the Center for Global Development in the US, calculate that enabling free movement could double global GDP. In addition, we would see an increase in cultural diversity, which studies show improves innovation. At a time when we have to solve unprecedented environmental and social challenges, it could be just what is needed.
然而，我们的国界体系是主要绊脚石——即人们自己的国家或希望前往的国家限制人口流动。当今的国际移民占全球人口的比例略高于3%，但他们对全球GDP做出的贡献约为10%，即6.7万亿美元（5.9万亿英镑）——比他们在原籍国所做的贡献多出约3万亿美元（2.6万亿英镑）。有些经济学家，例如美国全球发展中心的迈克尔·克莱门斯计算，实现人口自由流动能使全球GDP翻一番。而且我们会看到文化更加多样性，研究表明这能促进创新。在我们必须解决空前的环境和社会挑战的时刻，这样做可能是必要的。
然而，我们的国界体系是主要绊脚石——即人们自己的国家或希望前往的国家限制人口流动。当今的国际移民占全球人口的比例略高于3%，但他们对全球GDP做出的贡献约为10%，即6.7万亿美元（5.9万亿英镑）——比他们在原籍国所做的贡献多出约3万亿美元（2.6万亿英镑）。有些经济学家，例如美国全球发展中心的迈克尔·克莱门斯计算，实现人口自由流动能使全球GDP翻一番。而且我们会看到文化更加多样性，研究表明这能促进创新。在我们必须解决空前的环境和社会挑战的时刻，这样做可能是必要的。
Removing borders or making them far more flexible, especially to labour flows, has the potential to improve humanity's resilience to the stresses and shocks of global climate change. Managed well, migration could benefit everyone.
如果取消国界或使其更加灵活，特别是对劳动力流动而言，有可能增强人类应对全球气候变化带来的压力和冲击的能力。如果管理得当，移民可以使每个人受益。
如果取消国界或使其更加灵活，特别是对劳动力流动而言，有可能增强人类应对全球气候变化带来的压力和冲击的能力。如果管理得当，移民可以使每个人受益。
What if we thought of the planet as a global commonwealth of humanity, in which people were free to move wherever they wanted? We'd need a new mechanism to manage global labour mobility far more effectively and efficiently – it is our biggest economic resource, after all. There are already wide-ranging global trade deals for the movement of other resources and products, but few that deal with labour movement.
我们不妨把地球看作全球人类联合体，人们可以自由去往自己想去的地方。我们需要一种新机制，更有效地管理全球劳动力迁移——毕竟劳动力是我们最大的经济资源。其他资源和产品已经有了广泛的全球贸易协定，但劳动力迁移很少有这种协定。
我们不妨把地球看作全球人类联合体，人们可以自由去往自己想去的地方。我们需要一种新机制，更有效地管理全球劳动力迁移——毕竟劳动力是我们最大的经济资源。其他资源和产品已经有了广泛的全球贸易协定，但劳动力迁移很少有这种协定。
Some 60% of the world's population is under the age of 40, half of these (and growing) under 20, and they will form most of the world's people for the rest of this century. Many of these young, energetic jobseekers are likely to be among those moving as the climate changes – will they add to economic growth to build sustainable societies, or will their talents be wasted?
全世界约有60%人口在40岁以下，其中一半（仍在增长）在20岁以下。在本世纪余下的时间里，他们将构成世界的大部分人口。由于气候变化，其中许多年轻、精力充沛的求职者可能成为劳动力迁移大军中的一员——他们将会促进经济增长以建设可持续的社会，还是才华被白白浪费？
全世界约有60%人口在40岁以下，其中一半（仍在增长）在20岁以下。在本世纪余下的时间里，他们将构成世界的大部分人口。由于气候变化，其中许多年轻、精力充沛的求职者可能成为劳动力迁移大军中的一员——他们将会促进经济增长以建设可持续的社会，还是才华被白白浪费？
The conversation about migration has become stuck on what ought to be allowed, rather than planning for what will occur. I believe nations need to move on from the idea of controlling migration to managing migration. At the very least, we need new mechanisms for lawful economic labour migration and mobility, and far better protection for those fleeing danger. Everyone could be offered an official form of United Nations citizenship in addition to their birth citizenship. For some people, such as those born in refugee camps, lacking papers, or citizens of small island states that will cease to exist later this century, UN citizenship may well be their only access to international recognition and assistance, even though citizenship is a human right. Passports could be issued on the back of this.
关于移民的讨论停留在应该允许什么，而不是未来有什么打算。我认为在理念上，各国需要从控制移民上升到管理移民层面。我们最起码需要建立新的机制管理合法、经济上的劳动力迁移和流动，为难民提供更好的保护。每个人除了拥有出生国籍，还可以被赋予正式的联合国公民身份。对于某些人来说，诸如出生在难民营、缺少手续、出生在本世纪后期将不复存在的小岛国家的公民，联合国公民身份完全可以成为他们获得国际承认与援助的唯一途径，尽管公民身份是一项人权。除此之外，还可以向他们发放护照。
关于移民的讨论停留在应该允许什么，而不是未来有什么打算。我认为在理念上，各国需要从控制移民上升到管理移民层面。我们最起码需要建立新的机制管理合法、经济上的劳动力迁移和流动，为难民提供更好的保护。每个人除了拥有出生国籍，还可以被赋予正式的联合国公民身份。对于某些人来说，诸如出生在难民营、缺少手续、出生在本世纪后期将不复存在的小岛国家的公民，联合国公民身份完全可以成为他们获得国际承认与援助的唯一途径，尽管公民身份是一项人权。除此之外，还可以向他们发放护照。
The political theorist David Held argued that we have outgrown our national boundaries through increasing globalisation, and now live in "overlapping communities of fate" from where we should form a cosmopolitan democracy at a global level. Today, we are experiencing a planetary crisis and I believe it is time to see ourselves as members of one globally dispersed species that must cooperate to survive. The scale of the climate crisis requires new global cooperation and, I believe, new international citizenship with global bodies for migration and for the biosphere – new authorities that are paid for by our taxes and to which nation states are accountable.
政治理论家大卫·赫尔德认为，全球化的日益深化使我们超越了国界，现在处于“人类命运共同体”中，我们应该建立一种世界性的民主政体。如今我们正在经历一场全球危机，我认为是时候把我们看作一个分散在全球各地的物种了，只有合作才能生存。气候危机的规模需要新的全球合作，我认为还需要新的国际公民身份，负责管理移民和生物圈的国际机构——新当局的财源来自我们的税收，民族国家对其负责。
政治理论家大卫·赫尔德认为，全球化的日益深化使我们超越了国界，现在处于“人类命运共同体”中，我们应该建立一种世界性的民主政体。如今我们正在经历一场全球危机，我认为是时候把我们看作一个分散在全球各地的物种了，只有合作才能生存。气候危机的规模需要新的全球合作，我认为还需要新的国际公民身份，负责管理移民和生物圈的国际机构——新当局的财源来自我们的税收，民族国家对其负责。
Currently, the United Nations has no executive powers over nation states, but that may well need to change if we are to bring down global temperatures, reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and restore the world's biodiversity. Global governance could also be useful in coordinating the vast new mobile workforce, perhaps using an international quota system to help allocate people to positions during the mass climate migrations of this century. But it would also face challenges created by bureaucracy, corruption and lobbying by powerful corporations.
目前，联合国对民族国家没有行政权。但我们要想给全球降温，减少大气中的二氧化碳浓度，恢复世界的生物多样性，我们完全有必要对此进行改革。全球治理也有助于协调庞大的新流动劳动力，在本世纪气候变化导致的大规模人口迁移中，也许利用国际配额制来给人们分配岗位。但是，我们也会面临官僚主义、腐败、有影响力企业的游说所带来的挑战。
目前，联合国对民族国家没有行政权。但我们要想给全球降温，减少大气中的二氧化碳浓度，恢复世界的生物多样性，我们完全有必要对此进行改革。全球治理也有助于协调庞大的新流动劳动力，在本世纪气候变化导致的大规模人口迁移中，也许利用国际配额制来给人们分配岗位。但是，我们也会面临官僚主义、腐败、有影响力企业的游说所带来的挑战。
Underpinning global governance, however, there also needs to be strong states. The tension between the desires and needs of the individual and society are very real for us all, and hard enough to reconcile when our society is a small, closely knit group, let alone the population of the whole planet. It's hard to care, for example, about a nameless, faceless stranger in a country you've never visited when making choices about your own life in a city thousands of miles from them. Most people find hard to balance the needs of a stranger one street away. Successful nation states help to manage this with structures and institutions that ensure a useful level of cooperation between strangers that nurtures a strong society in which we all can succeed. We willingly make small, daily sacrifices of time, energy and resources as individuals – paying taxes, for instance – to ensure our societies operate. Most of us do this because it's our society, our social family, our nation state.
但是，全球治理需要强大的国家做后盾。个人与社会之间的欲望和需求存在矛盾，这对我们大家来说非常现实。即使我们的社会是一个联系紧密的小圈子，协调起来都够难了，何况是全人类。举例来说，一个你从未去过的国家距离你的城市数千英里，当你为自己的生活做出决策时，很难为那个国家不明身份陌生人着想。大多数人难以平衡一条街外陌生人的需求，但成功的民族国家利用组织和制度有助于做到这一点，确保陌生人之间开展有益的合作，孕育出一个强大的社会，使我们所有人都能取得成功。我们个人愿意每天牺牲少数的时间、精力、资源——例如纳税——确保我们的社会正常运作。我们大多数人之所以这样做，因为这是我们的社会、我们的社会家园、我们的民族国家。
但是，全球治理需要强大的国家做后盾。个人与社会之间的欲望和需求存在矛盾，这对我们大家来说非常现实。即使我们的社会是一个联系紧密的小圈子，协调起来都够难了，何况是全人类。举例来说，一个你从未去过的国家距离你的城市数千英里，当你为自己的生活做出决策时，很难为那个国家不明身份陌生人着想。大多数人难以平衡一条街外陌生人的需求，但成功的民族国家利用组织和制度有助于做到这一点，确保陌生人之间开展有益的合作，孕育出一个强大的社会，使我们所有人都能取得成功。我们个人愿意每天牺牲少数的时间、精力、资源——例如纳税——确保我们的社会正常运作。我们大多数人之所以这样做，因为这是我们的社会、我们的社会家园、我们的民族国家。
The invention of the nation state has been a very powerful tool in enabling us to cooperate so well. As the political theorist David Miller put it: "Nations are communities that do things together."
民族国家这项发明是确保我们高效率合作的强大工具，正如政治理论家大卫·米勒所言：“国家是不同群体之间的合作”。
民族国家这项发明是确保我们高效率合作的强大工具，正如政治理论家大卫·米勒所言：“国家是不同群体之间的合作”。
It would seem unwise, then, to try to completely dismantle or abandon our existing geopolitical system in the brief time we have to prepare for the massive disruption that is expected to occur over the course of this century.
因此，在我们必须为本世纪可能发生的大规模破坏做好准备的短暂时间内，试图彻底摧毁或抛弃我们现有的地缘政治体系似乎是不明智的。
因此，在我们必须为本世纪可能发生的大规模破坏做好准备的短暂时间内，试图彻底摧毁或抛弃我们现有的地缘政治体系似乎是不明智的。
Only strong nation states will be capable of setting up the systems of governance that will help our species survive climate change. Only strong nation states will be able to manage a massive movement of migrants from different geographies and cultures to the native population.
只有强大的民族国家才能建立治理体系，帮助我们人类在气候变化中生存下去。只有强大的民族国家才能管理来自不同地域和文化的移民向本地人口的大规模迁移。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
只有强大的民族国家才能建立治理体系，帮助我们人类在气候变化中生存下去。只有强大的民族国家才能管理来自不同地域和文化的移民向本地人口的大规模迁移。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It may instead require a blend between internationalism and nationalism.
相反，这可能需要国际主义和民族主义的融合。
相反，这可能需要国际主义和民族主义的融合。
In recent decades, the growth of globalisation has led to greater internationalism – a citizen of London may often feel more commonality with a citizen of Amsterdam or Taiwan than with someone from a small country town in Britain. This may not matter for many successful urbanites, but natives of more rural areas can feel left behind by their own country as once dominant industries decline, and social spaces and cultural traditions dwindle away. This creates resentment and fear of the kind that can lead to prejudice against immigrants, as was seen in parts of the UK during the Brexit debate.
近几十年来，国际主义随着全球化的深入而发展——相比英国乡村小镇的人，伦敦人可能往往感觉自己与阿姆斯特丹人或台湾人有更多的共性。这对许多成功的城里人来说可能没什么，但乡下人可能觉得自己被国家抛弃了，因为曾经的主流产业衰落了，社会空间和文化传统没落了。由此滋生了仇恨和恐惧，导致人们对移民产生偏见，英国某些地区在“脱欧”辩论期间发生过这种现象。
近几十年来，国际主义随着全球化的深入而发展——相比英国乡村小镇的人，伦敦人可能往往感觉自己与阿姆斯特丹人或台湾人有更多的共性。这对许多成功的城里人来说可能没什么，但乡下人可能觉得自己被国家抛弃了，因为曾经的主流产业衰落了，社会空间和文化传统没落了。由此滋生了仇恨和恐惧，导致人们对移民产生偏见，英国某些地区在“脱欧”辩论期间发生过这种现象。
Open borders do not have to mean no borders or the abolition of nation states, though. It may be necessary to explore different types of nation states, with different governance options. Will states that are most affected by climate change buy or rent territory in safer places? Or will we see charter cities that operate under different jurisdictions and rules to the territory surrounding them, or floating states that build new territory on the waves?
然而，开放边境未必意味着取消边境或废除民族国家。我们可能有必要探索不同类型的民族国家采取不同的治理方案。受气候变化影响最大的国家会去安全地区购买或租用领土吗？我们会不会看到特许城市所属的管辖范围和遵循的法规不同于周边的领土？水上国家会不会在海面上扩建领土？
然而，开放边境未必意味着取消边境或废除民族国家。我们可能有必要探索不同类型的民族国家采取不同的治理方案。受气候变化影响最大的国家会去安全地区购买或租用领土吗？我们会不会看到特许城市所属的管辖范围和遵循的法规不同于周边的领土？水上国家会不会在海面上扩建领土？
It will take work to reinvent the concept of the nation state so it becomes more inclusive so that it strengthens local connections while forging greater and more equitable global networks. There are multiple benefits in encouraging commonality, a kinship with our fellows, based on our shared societal project, language and cultural works. These traits matter to people enough to make patriotism a powerful source of identity.
我们需要努力重塑民族国家的理念，使其变得更具包容性，这样既能增强本土联系，又能建立更加广泛和公平的全球网络。基于我们共同的社会计划、语言、文化作品，增进与同胞的共性和亲切感有很多益处，这些特征对人们来说很重要，足以使爱国主义成为强大的身份认同的源泉。
我们需要努力重塑民族国家的理念，使其变得更具包容性，这样既能增强本土联系，又能建立更加广泛和公平的全球网络。基于我们共同的社会计划、语言、文化作品，增进与同胞的共性和亲切感有很多益处，这些特征对人们来说很重要，足以使爱国主义成为强大的身份认同的源泉。
So why not also engender patriotic feeling about our nations' air, land and water, to encourage people to look after them.? One approach, since we all face environmental threats, might be to enlist military and other security institutions in the struggle against climate change. National service for younger citizens and immigrants to help with disaster relief, nature restoration, agricultural and social efforts could be another solidarity-creating step. And we may need to restore or invent new national traditions that are environmentally or socially beneficial, and for which citizens can feel pride and respect. These could include social groups and clubs that sing, create, play sport or perform together, and to which members can belong for life. These traditions can help maintain dignity in hard times and provide patriotic meaning for immigrants to assimilate to.
那么何不激发人们对本国的空气、土地、水的爱国主义情怀，从而鼓励他们爱护这些资源呢？由于我们都在面临环境威胁，一种方法可能是动员军队和其他安全机构去应对气候变化。招募年轻公民和移民服兵役，让他们帮助救灾、恢复生态、农业、社会活动也是增进团结的办法。我们可能有必要恢复和培养有利于环境或社会的国家传统，使公民产生自豪感和敬意。包括社会组织和俱乐部，大家一起唱歌、创作、做体育运动、表演，使成员拥有终生归属感。这些传统在困难时期有利于维护人的尊严，向移民提供融入社会的爱国主义内涵。
那么何不激发人们对本国的空气、土地、水的爱国主义情怀，从而鼓励他们爱护这些资源呢？由于我们都在面临环境威胁，一种方法可能是动员军队和其他安全机构去应对气候变化。招募年轻公民和移民服兵役，让他们帮助救灾、恢复生态、农业、社会活动也是增进团结的办法。我们可能有必要恢复和培养有利于环境或社会的国家传统，使公民产生自豪感和敬意。包括社会组织和俱乐部，大家一起唱歌、创作、做体育运动、表演，使成员拥有终生归属感。这些传统在困难时期有利于维护人的尊严，向移民提供融入社会的爱国主义内涵。
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