超过50万劳动力外流“使英国经济面临风险”
2022-12-31 jiangye111 4519
正文翻译
Exodus of more than half a million from workforce ‘puts UK economy at risk’
-Loss of employees since Covid raises fears of weaker growth and higher inflation, says Lords report

超过50万劳动力外流“使英国经济面临风险”
——上议院报告称,自新冠疫情以来,员工的流失引发了人们对增长疲软和通胀上升的担忧


(London commuters. The Lords report suggests early retirement among 50- to 64-year-olds is the key driver of rising economic inactivity.)

(伦敦的上班族。英国上议院的报告显示,50岁至64岁人群提前退休是经济不活跃程度上升的主要驱动因素。)
新闻:

An exodus of more than half a million people from the British workforce since the Covid pandemic is putting the economy at risk of weaker growth and persistently higher inflation, a Lords report has warned.

英国上议院的一份报告警告称,自新冠大流行以来,超过50万人离开了英国劳动力市场,这使英国经济面临增长放缓和通胀持续走高的风险。

The House of Lords economic affairs committee said the sharp rise in economic inactivity – when working-age adults are neither in employment nor looking for a job – since the onset of the health emergency was posing “serious challenges” to the economy.

英国上议院经济事务委员会表示,自疫情爆发以来,处于工作年龄的成年人既没有工作也没有找工作,经济不活跃现象急剧上升,对经济构成了“严重挑战”。

Against a backdrop of severe staff shortages across the country, it said earlier retirement among 50- to 64-year-olds was the biggest contributor to a rise in economic inactivity of 565,000 since the start of the pandemic.

该机构表示,在全国各地员工严重短缺的背景下,50岁至64岁人群提前退休是自疫情开始以来经济不活跃人数增加56.5万人的最大原因。

Rising sickness rates among working-age adults, as well as changes in the structure of migration after Brexit and an ageing UK population were also key drivers behind the rise of the “missing” workforce, it said.

报告称,劳动年龄成年人的发病率上升,以及英国脱欧后移民结构的变化和英国人口老龄化,也是“失踪”劳动力增加的主要驱动因素。

According to the report, “Where have all the workers gone?”, workforce shortages exacerbated by the loss of these individuals from the labour market stands to damage economic growth in the near term, while also reducing tax revenues available to finance public services.

根据这份题为《工人都去哪儿了?》的报告,劳动力市场上这些人的流失加剧了劳动力短缺,这将在短期内损害经济增长,同时也会减少用于公共服务的税收收入。

It said the fall in the labour supply could also add to inflationary pressure, as employers compete for fewer available workers by raising wages. Inflation slowed from a peak of more than 11% in October to 10.7% in November, still among the highest rates since the early 1980s. Average wage growth in the UK has strengthened to about 6% in recent months, although it remains significantly below inflation.

该机构表示,劳动力供应下降也可能加剧通胀压力,因为雇主会通过提高工资来争夺更少的可用劳动力。通货膨胀率从10月份超过11%的峰值降至11月份的10.7%,仍然处于20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。最近几个月,英国的平均工资增长已加强至约6%,尽管仍明显低于通货膨胀率。
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The report comes amid concerns over Britain’s position as the only country in the developed world with employment still expected to be below its pre-pandemic level at the start of 2023.

该报告发布之际,人们担心英国是唯一一个就业预计在2023年初仍将低于大流行前水平的发达国家。

Reflecting the risks to the economy, the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, used last month’s autumn statement to launch a review of workforce participation, which is due to conclude early next year.

作为对经济风险的反映,财政大臣杰里米·亨特利用上个月的秋季声明启动了对劳动力参与率的评估,该评估将于明年初结束。

Economists have warned that a deterioration in public services over recent years and record NHS waiting lists are contributing to the problem, amid a sharp rise in rates of long-term sickness.

经济学家警告说,近年来公共服务的恶化和创纪录的国家医疗体系等候名单是造成这一问题的原因,长期疾病的发病率急剧上升。

However, the Lords report suggested the decision to retire early among 50- to 64-year-olds was the key driver of rising economic inactivity, with many appearing reasonably well off. Although it said this group may yet feel the full impact of the cost of living crisis, which could lead more people to return to work to meet rising expenses, it suggested that it was unlikely for a significant proportion of those who exited the workforce in 2020 to come back.

然而,上议院的报告显示,50岁至64岁人群提前退休的决定是经济停滞加剧的关键驱动因素,其中许多人似乎相当富裕。尽管该机构表示,这一群体可能会感受到生活成本危机的全面影响,这可能会导致更多的人重返工作岗位,以满足不断上涨的支出,但它表示,2020年退出劳动力市场的很大一部分人不太可能再回来了。

Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics published on Monday show those in economic inactivity aged between 50 and 65 years old who were considering a return to work were typically at the younger end of the age bracket.

英国国家统计局周一公布的另一组数据显示,年龄在50岁至65岁之间、处于无经济活动状态、正在考虑重返工作岗位的人,通常处于这个年龄段的最年轻端。

Money was also an important motivation, particularly for those less likely to be able to pay an unexpected but necessary bill, or who were paying off a loan or mortgage.

金钱也是一个重要的动机,特别是对于那些不太可能支付意外但必要的账单的人,或者正在偿还贷款或抵押贷款的人。

Lord Bridges of Headley, the chair of the Lords economic affairs committee, said: “Taken together these findings are, like mid-winter, bleak. The rise in economic inactivity makes it harder to control inflation, damages growth and puts pressure on already stretched public finances.

英国上议院经济事务委员会主席布里奇斯勋爵说:“综合来看,这些发现就像仲冬一样令人沮丧。经济不活跃程度的上升,加大了控制通胀的难度,损害了经济增长,并给本已捉襟见肘的公共财政带来压力。

“That’s why it’s critical the government does more to understand the causes of increased inactivity, and whether this trend is likely to persist.”

“这就是为什么政府对了解不活跃增加的原因以及这种趋势是否会持续下去至关重要。”

评论翻译
Salaried_ZebraCard-carrying member of the Anti-Growth Coalition
It's almost as if people are starting to value their own welfare more than the economy. Good for them.
Give people a reason to go back to work (i.e., better pay and conditions), and maybe they might. As it stands, I don't blame anyone who sees the state of the country and what little it's offering them and thinks "nah, no thanks".

人们似乎开始把自己的福利看得比经济更重要了。这对他们有好处。
给人们一个回去工作的理由(比如,更好的工资和条件),也许他们就会回去工作。就目前的情况而言,我并不责怪那些看到这个国家的现状以及它给他们提供的东西很少,然后认为“不,不用了,谢谢”的人。
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Proud_Idiot
Those aren’t the people that have left the workforce. It’s boomers that have a paid off house, close to retirement, and can’t be raised to work.
They’ll soon get a triple locked pension while wagging their finger and saying, “Young people don’t know the value of hard work.”

这些人并不是已经离开职场的人。而是婴儿潮时期出生的人,他们有一套还清贷款的房子,接近退休,也不能被培养去工作。
他们很快就会得到三重养老金,同时摇着手指说教:“年轻人不知道努力工作的价值。”

jiggjuggj0gg
I do casual agency work to top up my full time job and I constantly come across 50+ year olds who are there for fun. All the younger people are there as there second or third job, desperate for shifts to make ends meet, and there will always be some John or Sue who has been perusing the website for fun, nabbed the best shifts, and then spends the whole time bossing younger people around because they are "lazy" for only working 3 days at that job that week.
Without fail these Johns and Sues will both a) call all the younger staff lazy and incompetent, and b) at some point reveal that they own property, live off the income, and do some agency work occasionally because they get bored/want some extra "pocket money" for their next holiday.
It would be fine if this were the odd person, but there have been several exactly like this in every agency job I have worked. It's exhausting to be on your 12th hour of work of the day and be told you're young and so should be doing all the lifting/energy draining tasks, and that you're so lazy, by someone who earns their money by sitting on a property they bought for pennies 20 years ago.

我在全职工作之外做一些临时的代理工作,经常遇到50多岁的人来找乐子。所有的年轻人都有第二份或第三份工作,渴望轮班来维持生计,但总有一些“约翰”或“苏”们一直在浏览网站,寻找乐趣,占了最好的轮班安排,然后把所有时间都花在对年轻人的命令上,因为他们“懒惰”,一周只在那个工作上工作3天。
毫无例外,这些“约翰”或“苏”们会:1、说所有年轻员工懒惰和无能,2、在某个时候透露他们拥有财产,靠收入生活,偶尔做一些代理工作,因为他们感到无聊/想要一些额外的“零花钱”支付他们的下一个假期。
如果这是一个奇怪的人,那还好,但在我工作过的每一份代理工作中,都有几个这样的人。每天工作12个小时,却被一个靠坐在20年前花几分钱买来的房子上赚钱的人说你还年轻,所以应该做所有的搬运/消耗体力的工作,而且你很懒,这让人很累。

wintersrevenge
That's not what will happen. We will either increase immigration and therefore there will be no wage or condition improvements. Or the jobs will cease to exist and economic growth will be slower and inflation will increase.

加工资什么的不会发生的。我们要么增加移民,因此工资和工作条件不会改善。要么工作岗位将不复存在,经济增长将放缓,通货膨胀将加剧。

Erwin_MuellerGermany
I will say it again and again, maybe it will stick. Immigration improves wages and living conditions. Migrants pay more tax and take less benefits than nativ Brits. It's either Britain will continue it's anti-immigration xenophobic behavior and will lose jobs and continue the economic decline or it will turn back again to Europe and Freedom of Movement.

我会一遍又一遍地说,也许它会坚持下去。移民改善了工资和生活条件。移民比英国本地人缴纳更多的税,享受更少的福利。要么英国继续其反移民的排外行为,失去工作岗位,经济继续下滑,要么英国将再次转向欧洲和自由流动。

MrZakalweRemoaner
Depends on the migrants. Skilled immigration is an absolute boon to the country and economy. Unskilled immigration for in demand professions? Fantastic stuff. Unskilled immigration generally? Not so much. Net loss in an advanced economy.
Some immigration is good for a country, not all. Of course all of it should be balanced with incentives to train and promote instead of merely importing (which we haven't done, shown by our terrible training and investment stats) but you get the picture.

这取决于移民自身。技术移民绝对是国家和经济的福音。紧缺职业的非技术移民?好东西。一般职业的非技术移民?就不那么香了。属于发达经济体的净亏损。
一些移民对一个国家有好处,但不是全部。当然,所有这些都应该与培训和提升的激励相平衡,而不是仅仅引进(我们没有这样做,从我们糟糕的培训和投资统计数据可以看出),但你懂的。

wintersrevenge
Britain is less xenophobic than Germany, massively so. Net immigration to Britain was higher per person than Germany last year. I think around twice as high.
Wages have improved in many sectors particularly low skilled ones due to leaving the EU causing labour shortages.
Britain's economic decline has been in the making for a long time. Turning back to Europe and freedom of movement will not change that.

在很大程度上,英国没有德国那么排外。去年,英国人均净移民人数高于德国。我想大概有两倍高。
由于英国脱欧导致劳动力短缺,许多行业的工资水平有所提高,尤其是低技能行业。
英国的经济衰退已经酝酿了很长一段时间。回到欧洲和自由流动不会改变这一点的。

mimetic_emetic
Neo-liberal optimism is disconnected from reality. How large should the UK's population grow? 90 Million? We have massive disruption to global agriculture on the horizon and we don't have a spare Earth handy.
Immigration is fine for the near-term, but what of 40 years down the line? It seems the neolib hope is that so many die in the global south that food will be affordable and plentiful in the rich countries. Perhaps the future will just sort its self out, since they'll have fusion and flying cars.

新自由主义乐观主义与现实脱节。英国的人口应该增长多少?9000万吗?我们即将对全球农业造成巨大的破坏,而且我们手边没有备用的地球。
移民在短期内没问题,但40年后呢?新自由主义似乎希望全球南方有如此多的人死亡,这样富裕国家就能负担得起充足的食物。也许未来会自行解决,因为他们将有核聚变和飞行汽车。

Erwin_MuellerGermany
You do know that the poorest countries have the highest grow of population? If you want to reduce the overall population of earth then make all countries as rich as Germany or France or the UK.
We do not have shortages of resources. Poor people are hungry because they don't have the moneys to buy food. Migration is a very good solution, the rich countries get workers, the poor countries get a boost in GDP because the migrants send money back home.
We only have disruption to global agriculture because of stupid wars. And stupid people who like to see the countries in Africa poor. Food is already plentiful. Money isn't.
In my future we have 100% green energy, because we could have it already today. In my future the African countries would stop their wars and become as rich as European countries, dropping population massively. In my future the Pope would stop saying that condoms are sin and are worse than AIDS to Africans. In my future countries would stop wars and stop causing famines and mass forceful deportation of whole populations (aka refugees).

你知道最贫穷的国家人口增长最快吗?如果你想减少地球上的总人口,那就让所有国家都像德国、法国或英国一样富有。
我们并不缺乏资源。穷人挨饿是因为他们没钱买食物。移民是一个很好的解决方案,富裕国家得到了工人,贫穷国家的GDP得到了提振,因为移民把收入汇回家了。
愚蠢的战争只会破坏全球农业。还有那些喜欢看到非洲国家贫穷的愚蠢的人。食物已经很充足了。但钱不是。
在我的未来观里,我们拥有100%的绿色能源,因为我们今天就已经拥有了。在我的未来观里,非洲国家将停止战争,变得和欧洲国家一样富有,人口将大量减少。在我的未来观里,教皇将不再说避孕套是罪恶,对非洲人来说比艾滋病更糟糕。在我的未来观里,国家将停止战争,停止造成饥荒和大规模强制驱逐整个人口(又称“难民”)。

Whale31777
U.K. has been experiencing increased immigration since 2000. Brexit didn’t really change the numbers, just the source countries. Wages and living conditions have not kept pace with inflation during this period. Very little relative increase. Do you want to try to understand that? You can keep being patronising but you obviously can’t see the bigger picture. Wages won’t increase if companies don’t increase them. Immigration has very very little effect on that.

自2000年以来,英国的移民人数一直在增加。英国脱欧并没有真正改变这些数字,只是改变了来源国。在此期间,工资和生活条件没有跟上通货膨胀的步伐。相对增长很小。你想试着理解一下吗?你可以继续摆出居高临下的架势,但显然你看不到大局。如果公司不增加工资,工资就不会增加。移民对这个影响很小。

Erwin_MuellerGermany
The UK have massive worker shortages, and at the same time British natives are getting older and require more social care and retire. If you want to see what awaits the UK look at Japan. Japan's economy is literally strangled by old people.
That wages and living conditions didn't kept pace have nothing to do with migrants but with 10 years of austerity. And you people still keep voting for it! 10 years of Tory rule and then you vote for Brexit and more Tory rule.
Companies don't increase wages because you hate unxs. My gosh you even now hate nurses and doctors and firefighters and rail workers because they dare to strike. Zero hours contracts, landlords rule over everything, no houses are build, social institutions are decimated. And you wonder why.
You need more migrants, and at the same time you need a massive investment in social housing, social institutions. And you need to empower unxs and stop with the hate for workers going on strike. You also need to retake public ownership of the rail, energy sector and water, like every other EUropean country has.

英国存在严重的劳动力短缺,与此同时,英国本土人口正在变老,需要更多的社会照顾和退休。如果你想知道等待英国的是什么,那就看看日本吧。日本经济确实被老年人扼杀了。
工资和生活条件没有跟上步伐,这与移民无关,而是与10年的紧缩有关。你们这些人还一直投票支持它!保守党统治了10年,然后你们投票支持脱欧,继续保守党统治。
公司不会因为你讨厌工会就增加工资。我的天,你现在还讨厌护士、医生、消防员和铁路工人,因为他们敢罢工。零时工合同,地主统治一切,没有房子被建造,社会机构被摧毁。然后你还想知道为什么。
你需要更多的移民,与此同时,你需要在社会住房和社会机构上进行大规模投资。你需要赋予工会权力,停止对罢工工人的仇恨。你还需要像其他欧洲国家一样,重新获得铁路、能源和水务部门的公有制。

ApolloNeed
If there is a labour shortage, as we are being told, why are wages rising below inflation? If wages are rising below inflation then employers are saving money on their wage bill, not spending more.
If employers are short of labour why aren’t they competing for it?

如果像我们被告知的那样存在劳动力短缺,那为什么工资涨幅低于通胀?如果工资增长低于通货膨胀率,那么雇主就会在工资账单上省钱,而不是增加支出。
如果雇主缺乏劳动力,他们为什么不去(以涨工资来)竞争呢?

SurestAscetic
Wages are sticky. People tend not to renegotiate the salary of roles they are already in without some kind of organised effort. Consequently, when inflation increases, people who stay in the same role tend to experience gradual real pay cuts - their nominal salary remains the same or nearly the same, but inflation means their real salary reduces. However, if they move jobs, they find they can secure big pay increases as the market for hiring is very tight. On average, since most people in any given job at any given time tend to be staying there, wage increases lag price inflation increases even in hot labour markets. After price inflation recedes, wage inflation tends to stay high for a bit until labour market churn means more people have moved into the new higher-paying roles.
This is called nominal wage rigidity

工资具有粘性。如果没有某种有组织的努力,人们往往不会重新谈判他们已经从事的职位的薪水。因此,当通货膨胀加剧时,留在同一岗位上的人往往会经历逐渐的实际工资削减——他们的名义工资保持不变或几乎不变,但通货膨胀意味着他们的实际工资减少了。然而,如果他们换工作,他们会发现他们可以获得大幅加薪,因为招聘市场非常紧张。平均而言,由于在任何特定时间从事任何特定工作的大多数人都倾向于呆在那里保持不变,所以即使在热门的劳动力市场,工资增长也滞后于价格通胀的增长。在物价通胀回落后,工资通胀往往会维持在高位一段时间,直到劳动力市场动荡意味着更多的人进入新的高薪岗位。
这被称为名义工资刚性

hlyciaPolitics is broken
Because the balance of power in employer-employee salary & benefits negotiations is massively skewed in favour of employers. Due in part to legislation because also the basic reality of an employer losing an employee is usually much less of a problem for the employer than the problems faced when an employee loses their job.
Yes, employers are competing against each other for staff but all employers want staff as cheaply as possible so when/if they offer an "improved" remuneration package it's only the bare minimum above their rivals that will ensure retention/recruitment targets are met, knowing that rival companies aren't going to want to rock the boat either by doing something silly like offer a big pay rise.
Also consider that employers can offer pay rises at any time they like, make sudden announcements of extra bonuses and benefits, they're only contractually obliged to not lower remuneration randomly. Even employers who fear an impending wage war with rival companies don't need to act pre-emptively and unilaterally offer big pay rises, instead they can just wait and only offer improvements after rivals start upping their deals.

因为在雇主与雇员的工资和福利谈判中,权力的天平严重偏向雇主。部分原因是立法,因为雇主失去员工的基本现实通常比员工失去工作时面临的问题要小得多。
是的,雇主之间相互竞争员工,但所有雇主都想要尽可能便宜的员工,所以当/如果他们提供“改进”的薪酬方案时,只有比竞争对手高出最低限度的薪酬,才能确保实现留任/招聘目标,因为竞争对手也不想做一些愚蠢的事情,比如大幅加薪。
还要考虑到雇主可以随时加薪,突然宣布额外的奖金和福利,他们只是在合同上有义务不随意降低薪酬。即使雇主担心与竞争对手的工资大战即将爆发,也不需要先发制人,单方面大幅加薪,相反,他们可以等待,只有在竞争对手开始提高工资后才提出改进措施。
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MettaMoment
We have decided to leave the UK now.
Traditionally it's always been a good place for us to live. I pay a high amount of tax, but in return I got to see a safety net in place for the vulnerable along with free decent healthcare and an education for our children.
This is now all but crumbling around us. We recently had an emergency that required my missus be rushed into A&E and what we found was nothing short of the healthcare you would expect in a third world country. We were begging for pain killers and had an eventual 10 hour wait to see not even a doctor, but a nurse. The same is happening in our kids schools, teachers quitting on mass and the school struggling to afford to supply basic learning materials and heating for the classrooms.
Where we plan to go is far from ideal (the US), but equates to a much better standard of living then what the UK can offer us, as my salary will double and tax burden massively reduced.
It saddens me as I love this country, its my birth country and it's a beautiful isle, I just feel the slide accelerating and want out while we can. This country does not care about the future of its children, it's more concerned with the elderly.
In a lot of ways, I feel like the Russian engineer leaving the crumbling former soviet bloc for the US or Canada, it's classic brain drain material.

我们已经决定现在就离开英国了。
传统上,它一直是我们生活的好地方。我缴纳了大量的税,但作为回报,我看到了一个为弱势群体提供的安全网,以及免费的体面医疗保健和我们孩子的教育。
但现在我们周围的一切都摇摇欲坠。最近我们家发生了一场紧急情况,需要把我太太送进急诊室,我们发现那里的医疗服务和你在第三世界国家所期望的完全没区别。我们乞求止痛药,最终等了10个小时才见到的甚至不是医生,而只是护士。同样的事情也发生在我们孩子的学校里,老师们批量辞职,学校提供基本的学习材料和教室的供暖都难了。
我们计划去的地方(美国)离理想很远,但相当于比英国提供给我们的生活水平高得多,因为我的工资将翻倍,税收负担将大大减轻。
这让我很难过,因为我爱这个国家,这是我的出生地,这是一个美丽的岛屿,我只是感觉下滑加速,想趁我们还能离开时离开。这个国家不关心孩子们的未来,它更关心老年人。
在很多方面,我感觉就像当年俄罗斯工程师离开摇摇欲坠的前苏联集团前往美国或加拿大,这可是典型的人才流失。

EnderMB
As someone that considered (and still is considering) a move to the US, you'll need to make sure you've budgeted for comparable health insurance, and many of the other hidden costs that come from moving there. I'm a Software Engineer, and moving to the US would drastically increase my salary, but that quickly disappears when rent, heath premiums, and tax are thrown in.
Also goes without saying that the visa system is a fucking nightmare. Their system is heavily built around anyone coming in being there temporarily, with companies happily looking to remove "temporary" workers with layoffs whenever possible.

作为一个考虑过(现在仍在考虑)移民到美国的人,你需要确保你已经为同类的医疗保险做了预算,还有许多其他因为搬到那里而产生的隐藏成本。我是一名软件工程师,搬到美国会大大增加我的工资,但当房租、医疗保险费和税收被考虑进来时,这一切很快就抵消掉了。
不用说,签证制度就是个噩梦。他们的系统很大程度上是建立在临时员工的基础上的,而公司很乐意在任何可能的情况下解雇“临时”员工。

skitek
I left the country in August with my family after all the shit going on [over a decade of Tories & Brexit].
Nice to rejoin to EU and as a plus had a £20,000 pay increase for the same job I was doing in Wales

在经历了(10多年的保守党和英国脱欧)所有这些糟糕的事情之后,我在8月份和我的家人离开了这个国家。
很高兴重新加入欧盟,而且做我在威尔士做的同样的工作,但工资增加了2万英镑

cr8erbase
Sorry I’m sure it has been said but please could we try and tax the rich.

抱歉,我确定有人这么说过,但我们可不可以试着向富人征税呢。

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