历史上有哪些最好地说明了蝴蝶效应/混沌理论的例子？（二）
正文翻译
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What are the greatest examples of the butterfly effect / chaos theory in history?
历史上有哪些最好地说明了蝴蝶效应/混沌理论的例子？
历史上有哪些最好地说明了蝴蝶效应/混沌理论的例子？
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评论翻译
Alex Wineburg
To me, one of the greatest butterfly effects in history is in 1171, when some Tatars decide to poison a local clan chief.
How can this be a big deal, stuff like this happens all the time in the Steppes of Siberia. Well, it drove his family to live in poverty, and his Son was left with a desire for revenge. That son, who was named Temujin, and his ambition to control the Mongolian plains gave him the name of Genghis Khan, leader of all Mongols.
His warriors take over China, Persia, Korea, Central Asia, Iraq, and Russia, killing roughly 10% of the entire human population on Earth in the course of the conquest.
But the Butterfly effect doesn’t end there.
First: The Turks displaced by the Mongols find settlements in Anatolia. The climate of the region is very similar to Central Asia, but far more valuable due to the Black and Mediterranean Sea coasts.
Out of this region, a kingdom ruled by the House of Osman takes over Anatolia and what’s left of The Byzantine Empire in 1453, becoming the Ottoman Empire.
Second: With the Ottomans blocking off the Red Sea ports from Europe, the Kingdom of Portugal invests in long distance trade. Being the first nation to sail across Africa and into the Indian Ocean. This cuts the prices of valuable spices by 90% and encourages other European countries to do the same.
Portugal’s newly united neighbor, Spain decides to sail across the Atlantic to get to India, but they “discover” two new continents instead.
Third: Back in Asia, the Mongolian Yuan Dynasty is overthrown by the Ming.
But with the fear of any future Mongol invasions, they take a far more isolationist policy to invest in building the Great Wall of China.
This isolationism eventually backfires on China centuries later, leading to its century of Humiliation.
Fourth: In Eastern Europe, a duchy called Muscovy that built itself on trade with the Mongols, rises up and unifies the region.
This was how Russia was created.
Summary: The death of a local Mongolian tribesman motivated his son to establish a large empire, whose legacy displaced the Turks into forming the Ottomans, the weakening of China, the creation of Russia, and the discovery of the Americas, and Europe’s power in the following centuries.
对我来说，历史上最伟大的蝴蝶效应之一发生在 1171 年，当时一些鞑靼人决定毒死一位当地氏族首领。
这有什么大不了的呢，这样的事情在西伯利亚大草原上不是经常发生吗。好吧，此举使他的家人生活在贫困之中，而他的儿子因此怀着复仇的欲望。那个名叫铁木真的儿子和他控制蒙古平原的野心使他成为了所有蒙古人的领袖--成吉思汗。
他的战士们占领了中国、波斯、朝鲜、中亚、伊拉克和俄罗斯，在征服过程中大约杀死了地球上全部人类人口的10%。
但蝴蝶效应并没有结束。
首先：被蒙古人取代的土耳其人在安纳托利亚找到了定居点。该地区的气候与中亚非常相似，但由于黑海和地中海沿岸，其价值要高得多。
在这个地区，一个由奥斯曼家族统治的王国在1453年接管了安纳托利亚和拜占庭帝国的剩余部分，成为奥斯曼帝国。
第二：由于奥斯曼人封锁了欧洲的红海港口，葡萄牙王国投资于长途贸易。成为第一个横跨非洲并进入印度洋的国家。这使宝贵的香料价格降低了90%，并激励其他欧洲国家也这样做。
葡萄牙新近联合起来的邻居西班牙决定驶过大西洋前往印度，但他们却"发现"了两个新大陆。
第三：回到亚洲，蒙古的元朝被明朝推翻了。
但由于担心未来蒙古人的入侵，他们采取了更为孤立的政策，投资修建中国的长城。
这种孤立主义最终在几个世纪后反噬了中国，导致了中国的百年耻辱。
第四：在东欧，一个依靠与蒙古人的贸易而建立起来的名为“Muscovy”的公国兴起并统一了该地区。
俄罗斯就是这样产生的。
摘要：一个当地蒙古部落的人的死亡促使他的儿子建立了一个大帝国，它的遗产：使土耳其人流离失所，形成了奥斯曼帝国、削弱了中国、建立了俄罗斯、并发现了美洲，以及欧洲在随后几个世纪获得的力量。
To me, one of the greatest butterfly effects in history is in 1171, when some Tatars decide to poison a local clan chief.
How can this be a big deal, stuff like this happens all the time in the Steppes of Siberia. Well, it drove his family to live in poverty, and his Son was left with a desire for revenge. That son, who was named Temujin, and his ambition to control the Mongolian plains gave him the name of Genghis Khan, leader of all Mongols.
His warriors take over China, Persia, Korea, Central Asia, Iraq, and Russia, killing roughly 10% of the entire human population on Earth in the course of the conquest.
But the Butterfly effect doesn’t end there.
First: The Turks displaced by the Mongols find settlements in Anatolia. The climate of the region is very similar to Central Asia, but far more valuable due to the Black and Mediterranean Sea coasts.
Out of this region, a kingdom ruled by the House of Osman takes over Anatolia and what’s left of The Byzantine Empire in 1453, becoming the Ottoman Empire.
Second: With the Ottomans blocking off the Red Sea ports from Europe, the Kingdom of Portugal invests in long distance trade. Being the first nation to sail across Africa and into the Indian Ocean. This cuts the prices of valuable spices by 90% and encourages other European countries to do the same.
Portugal’s newly united neighbor, Spain decides to sail across the Atlantic to get to India, but they “discover” two new continents instead.
Third: Back in Asia, the Mongolian Yuan Dynasty is overthrown by the Ming.
But with the fear of any future Mongol invasions, they take a far more isolationist policy to invest in building the Great Wall of China.
This isolationism eventually backfires on China centuries later, leading to its century of Humiliation.
Fourth: In Eastern Europe, a duchy called Muscovy that built itself on trade with the Mongols, rises up and unifies the region.
This was how Russia was created.
Summary: The death of a local Mongolian tribesman motivated his son to establish a large empire, whose legacy displaced the Turks into forming the Ottomans, the weakening of China, the creation of Russia, and the discovery of the Americas, and Europe’s power in the following centuries.
对我来说，历史上最伟大的蝴蝶效应之一发生在 1171 年，当时一些鞑靼人决定毒死一位当地氏族首领。
这有什么大不了的呢，这样的事情在西伯利亚大草原上不是经常发生吗。好吧，此举使他的家人生活在贫困之中，而他的儿子因此怀着复仇的欲望。那个名叫铁木真的儿子和他控制蒙古平原的野心使他成为了所有蒙古人的领袖--成吉思汗。
他的战士们占领了中国、波斯、朝鲜、中亚、伊拉克和俄罗斯，在征服过程中大约杀死了地球上全部人类人口的10%。
但蝴蝶效应并没有结束。
首先：被蒙古人取代的土耳其人在安纳托利亚找到了定居点。该地区的气候与中亚非常相似，但由于黑海和地中海沿岸，其价值要高得多。
在这个地区，一个由奥斯曼家族统治的王国在1453年接管了安纳托利亚和拜占庭帝国的剩余部分，成为奥斯曼帝国。
第二：由于奥斯曼人封锁了欧洲的红海港口，葡萄牙王国投资于长途贸易。成为第一个横跨非洲并进入印度洋的国家。这使宝贵的香料价格降低了90%，并激励其他欧洲国家也这样做。
葡萄牙新近联合起来的邻居西班牙决定驶过大西洋前往印度，但他们却"发现"了两个新大陆。
第三：回到亚洲，蒙古的元朝被明朝推翻了。
但由于担心未来蒙古人的入侵，他们采取了更为孤立的政策，投资修建中国的长城。
这种孤立主义最终在几个世纪后反噬了中国，导致了中国的百年耻辱。
第四：在东欧，一个依靠与蒙古人的贸易而建立起来的名为“Muscovy”的公国兴起并统一了该地区。
俄罗斯就是这样产生的。
摘要：一个当地蒙古部落的人的死亡促使他的儿子建立了一个大帝国，它的遗产：使土耳其人流离失所，形成了奥斯曼帝国、削弱了中国、建立了俄罗斯、并发现了美洲，以及欧洲在随后几个世纪获得的力量。
Ethan Young
An excellent answer, but I would also add that what made the Tatars’ murder of Temujin’s father such an egregious crime is the fact that it was committed after they had extended him guest rights and hospitality. The law of hospitality was one of the few laws on the Mongolian steppe, and one that all the tribes who lived there took deadly seriously. Breaching it was considered to be one of the worst crimes you could possibly commit.
很好的回答，但我还要补充一点，鞑靼人谋杀铁木真父亲的罪行之所以如此恶劣，是因为这是在铁木真父亲为他们提供了客人权利和款待之后发生的。招待法是蒙古草原上为数不多的法律之一，也是所有生活在那里的部落都极为重视的法律。违反它被认为是你可能犯下的最严重的罪行之一。
An excellent answer, but I would also add that what made the Tatars’ murder of Temujin’s father such an egregious crime is the fact that it was committed after they had extended him guest rights and hospitality. The law of hospitality was one of the few laws on the Mongolian steppe, and one that all the tribes who lived there took deadly seriously. Breaching it was considered to be one of the worst crimes you could possibly commit.
很好的回答，但我还要补充一点，鞑靼人谋杀铁木真父亲的罪行之所以如此恶劣，是因为这是在铁木真父亲为他们提供了客人权利和款待之后发生的。招待法是蒙古草原上为数不多的法律之一，也是所有生活在那里的部落都极为重视的法律。违反它被认为是你可能犯下的最严重的罪行之一。
Geoff Caplan
Of course we only have one source for all this - The Secret History - which was commissioned by Temujin’s successors. So very likely it was spun to make their violent takeover look righteous…
当然，我们只有一个信息来源--《秘史》--它是由铁木真的继任者委托编写的。所以很有可能是为了让他们的暴力接管看起来很正义......
Of course we only have one source for all this - The Secret History - which was commissioned by Temujin’s successors. So very likely it was spun to make their violent takeover look righteous…
当然，我们只有一个信息来源--《秘史》--它是由铁木真的继任者委托编写的。所以很有可能是为了让他们的暴力接管看起来很正义......
Thomas Wier
A lot of these connections are pretty tenuous. Turkic tribes had been in Anatolia already for two centuries when Genghis Khan expelled the ancestor of Osman. The rise of the Ottoman Empire had much more to do with the sack of Constantinople in 1204 and the Battle of Manzikert in 1071 than anything Genghis Khan did.
这些联系有很多都是非常牵强的。成吉思汗驱逐奥斯曼的祖先时，突厥部落已经在安纳托利亚存在了两个世纪。奥斯曼帝国的崛起与1204年君士坦丁堡被洗劫和1071年曼兹克特战役的关系远远大于成吉思汗所做的一切。
A lot of these connections are pretty tenuous. Turkic tribes had been in Anatolia already for two centuries when Genghis Khan expelled the ancestor of Osman. The rise of the Ottoman Empire had much more to do with the sack of Constantinople in 1204 and the Battle of Manzikert in 1071 than anything Genghis Khan did.
这些联系有很多都是非常牵强的。成吉思汗驱逐奥斯曼的祖先时，突厥部落已经在安纳托利亚存在了两个世纪。奥斯曼帝国的崛起与1204年君士坦丁堡被洗劫和1071年曼兹克特战役的关系远远大于成吉思汗所做的一切。
Ivan Erceg
Didn’t the Turks move to Anatolia because of a cool period in the climate cycle? They would of starved if they didn’t?
土耳其人迁往安纳托利亚不是因为气候周期中的一个寒冷期吗？如果他们不这样做，他们会饿死？
Didn’t the Turks move to Anatolia because of a cool period in the climate cycle? They would of starved if they didn’t?
土耳其人迁往安纳托利亚不是因为气候周期中的一个寒冷期吗？如果他们不这样做，他们会饿死？
Gustavo Izquierdo
The Turks had been there since 1070 before the Mongols even showed up. The turkic tribes had been migrating since the 10th century and Muslim dynasties used them as mercenaries eventually the turkic tribes took over and unified eventually supplanting their overlords. Once they unified they became the seljuk sultanate. If the Mongols never happened it would have been the sultanate of Rum that would have conquered anatolia. If anything the Mongols delayed the Turks from conquering the Byzantine empire.
在蒙古人出现之前，土耳其人早在1070年就已经在那里了。土耳其部落自10世纪以来一直在迁移，穆斯林王朝利用他们作为雇佣兵，最终土耳其部落接管并统一，最终取代了他们的宗主。他们统一之后，就成为了塞尔柱苏丹国。如果蒙古人没有崛起，那么征服安纳托利亚的将是罗姆苏丹国。如果有的话，蒙古人推迟了土耳其人征服拜占庭帝国的时间。
The Turks had been there since 1070 before the Mongols even showed up. The turkic tribes had been migrating since the 10th century and Muslim dynasties used them as mercenaries eventually the turkic tribes took over and unified eventually supplanting their overlords. Once they unified they became the seljuk sultanate. If the Mongols never happened it would have been the sultanate of Rum that would have conquered anatolia. If anything the Mongols delayed the Turks from conquering the Byzantine empire.
在蒙古人出现之前，土耳其人早在1070年就已经在那里了。土耳其部落自10世纪以来一直在迁移，穆斯林王朝利用他们作为雇佣兵，最终土耳其部落接管并统一，最终取代了他们的宗主。他们统一之后，就成为了塞尔柱苏丹国。如果蒙古人没有崛起，那么征服安纳托利亚的将是罗姆苏丹国。如果有的话，蒙古人推迟了土耳其人征服拜占庭帝国的时间。
Graham Vert
You don’t even need to stop there. The formation of the Ottoman Empire eventually leads to a power vacuum in the Balkans, which creates regional instability that causes WWI. During that war, the Germans smuggle Lenin back into Russia in order to create political instability (which succeeds, to say the least), and Russia becomes communist. And so on…
你甚至还能接着说下去：奥斯曼帝国的形成最终导致了巴尔干地区的权力真空，这造成了地区的不稳定，引起了第一次世界大战。在那场战争中，德国人把列宁偷运回俄国，以制造政治不稳定（至少可以说是成功了），俄国变成了共产主义。等等等等...
You don’t even need to stop there. The formation of the Ottoman Empire eventually leads to a power vacuum in the Balkans, which creates regional instability that causes WWI. During that war, the Germans smuggle Lenin back into Russia in order to create political instability (which succeeds, to say the least), and Russia becomes communist. And so on…
你甚至还能接着说下去：奥斯曼帝国的形成最终导致了巴尔干地区的权力真空，这造成了地区的不稳定，引起了第一次世界大战。在那场战争中，德国人把列宁偷运回俄国，以制造政治不稳定（至少可以说是成功了），俄国变成了共产主义。等等等等...
Debangsu Sarkar
Oh my god! That means I got a D- in the exams cause of Genghis khan!
天啊! 也就是说我在考试中得了D-都是因为成吉思汗!
Oh my god! That means I got a D- in the exams cause of Genghis khan!
天啊! 也就是说我在考试中得了D-都是因为成吉思汗!
Ayse T. Dogu
Great answer, but it think, even if Ottomans didn't formed, the course of history would not change. Because Mongols destroyed another Turkish Empire in Anatolia, which was Seljuks. If anything, i think they delayed the conquest of Istanbul by creating chaos in the region.
很好的答案，但我认为，即使奥斯曼人没有形成，历史的进程也不会改变。因为蒙古人摧毁了安纳托利亚的另一个突厥人帝国，即塞尔柱。如果有的话，我认为他们通过在该地区制造混乱而推迟了突厥人对伊斯坦布尔的征服。
Great answer, but it think, even if Ottomans didn't formed, the course of history would not change. Because Mongols destroyed another Turkish Empire in Anatolia, which was Seljuks. If anything, i think they delayed the conquest of Istanbul by creating chaos in the region.
很好的答案，但我认为，即使奥斯曼人没有形成，历史的进程也不会改变。因为蒙古人摧毁了安纳托利亚的另一个突厥人帝国，即塞尔柱。如果有的话，我认为他们通过在该地区制造混乱而推迟了突厥人对伊斯坦布尔的征服。
Nachi Sawrikar
You can always connect every thing together. One factual error though, Columbus discovered North America / Caribbean in 1492 and Vasco Da Game discovered the route to India in 1498.
只要你想，你总是可以把每件事情联系在一起。不过有一个事实错误，哥伦布在1492年发现了北美/加勒比海，而达伽马在1498年发现了通往印度的路线。
You can always connect every thing together. One factual error though, Columbus discovered North America / Caribbean in 1492 and Vasco Da Game discovered the route to India in 1498.
只要你想，你总是可以把每件事情联系在一起。不过有一个事实错误，哥伦布在1492年发现了北美/加勒比海，而达伽马在1498年发现了通往印度的路线。
Mark Odom
I wonder if native Americans chuckle when they read about Columbus
我想知道美洲土著在读到哥伦布的故事时是否会笑出声来
I wonder if native Americans chuckle when they read about Columbus
我想知道美洲土著在读到哥伦布的故事时是否会笑出声来
Danny Haledon
My guess is. . . no.
我猜...不会
My guess is. . . no.
我猜...不会
David Brann
Columbus “discovered” America only if “discover” means “open to European exploitation.” America had been “discovered” from the West long before it was “discovered” from the East. There was a very advanced Stone Age civilization in the Americas, with cities and millions of people, before Columbus arrived.
只有当“发现”的意思是“对欧洲的剥削开放”时，才能说哥伦布“发现”了美洲。美洲在被西方“发现”之前很久就被东方“发现”了。在哥伦布到达之前，美洲有一个非常先进的石器时代文明，有城市和数百万人。
Columbus “discovered” America only if “discover” means “open to European exploitation.” America had been “discovered” from the West long before it was “discovered” from the East. There was a very advanced Stone Age civilization in the Americas, with cities and millions of people, before Columbus arrived.
只有当“发现”的意思是“对欧洲的剥削开放”时，才能说哥伦布“发现”了美洲。美洲在被西方“发现”之前很久就被东方“发现”了。在哥伦布到达之前，美洲有一个非常先进的石器时代文明，有城市和数百万人。
Eleftherios Tserkezis
A fight between a dog and two monkeys drove the age-long Anatolian Greek communities to extinction.
When WWI broke out (1914), Greece found itself at a crossroads. The liberal prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos was eager to join the Entente in hopes of territorial gains at the expense of the Ottoman empire. King Constantine, who had ties to Germany, was pushing for neutrality, which would favour the Central Powers. The two men were politically powerful and personally influential, so their antagonism divided the country, including the armed forces. The period that ensued is known in Greece as the National Schism.
In a matter of months in 1915, Venizelos was forced to resign from office, then went on to win the snap election, then resigned again. When the new, royalist government allowed Bulgaria to occupy eastern Macedonia, Venizelos set up his own, rival government in Thessaloniki (1916). The country was divided and close to full-blown civil war. But then the Russian revolution took the tsar out, and king Constantine lost the last semblance of tolerance from the Entente. A French naval blockade forced him to exile (1917), and Greece was re-united under Venizelos and formally entered the war.
一只狗和两只猴子之间打的一场架导致历史悠久的安纳托利亚希腊社区走向灭绝。
当第一次世界大战爆发时（1914年），希腊发现自己处于一个十字路口。自由派总理埃莱夫特里奥斯-维尼泽洛斯急于加入协约国，希望通过牺牲奥斯曼帝国的利益来获得领土。与德国有联系的康斯坦丁国王则力主中立，这将有利于同盟国。这两个人在政治上都很有势力，在个人上也都很有影响力，因此他们的对立分裂了整个国家，包括武装部队。随后的时期在希腊被称为国家分裂时期。
在1915年的几个月里，维尼泽洛斯被迫辞职，然后继续赢得了临时选举，然后再次辞职。当新的保皇党政府允许保加利亚占领马其顿东部时，维尼泽洛斯在塞萨洛尼基成立了自己的敌对政府（1916年）。国家被分裂，接近于全面内战。但随后俄国革命将沙皇赶走，康斯坦丁国王失去了协约国最后的宽容。法国的海军封锁迫使他流亡（1917年），希腊在维尼泽洛斯的领导下重新统一，并正式参战。
A fight between a dog and two monkeys drove the age-long Anatolian Greek communities to extinction.
When WWI broke out (1914), Greece found itself at a crossroads. The liberal prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos was eager to join the Entente in hopes of territorial gains at the expense of the Ottoman empire. King Constantine, who had ties to Germany, was pushing for neutrality, which would favour the Central Powers. The two men were politically powerful and personally influential, so their antagonism divided the country, including the armed forces. The period that ensued is known in Greece as the National Schism.
In a matter of months in 1915, Venizelos was forced to resign from office, then went on to win the snap election, then resigned again. When the new, royalist government allowed Bulgaria to occupy eastern Macedonia, Venizelos set up his own, rival government in Thessaloniki (1916). The country was divided and close to full-blown civil war. But then the Russian revolution took the tsar out, and king Constantine lost the last semblance of tolerance from the Entente. A French naval blockade forced him to exile (1917), and Greece was re-united under Venizelos and formally entered the war.
一只狗和两只猴子之间打的一场架导致历史悠久的安纳托利亚希腊社区走向灭绝。
当第一次世界大战爆发时（1914年），希腊发现自己处于一个十字路口。自由派总理埃莱夫特里奥斯-维尼泽洛斯急于加入协约国，希望通过牺牲奥斯曼帝国的利益来获得领土。与德国有联系的康斯坦丁国王则力主中立，这将有利于同盟国。这两个人在政治上都很有势力，在个人上也都很有影响力，因此他们的对立分裂了整个国家，包括武装部队。随后的时期在希腊被称为国家分裂时期。
在1915年的几个月里，维尼泽洛斯被迫辞职，然后继续赢得了临时选举，然后再次辞职。当新的保皇党政府允许保加利亚占领马其顿东部时，维尼泽洛斯在塞萨洛尼基成立了自己的敌对政府（1916年）。国家被分裂，接近于全面内战。但随后俄国革命将沙皇赶走，康斯坦丁国王失去了协约国最后的宽容。法国的海军封锁迫使他流亡（1917年），希腊在维尼泽洛斯的领导下重新统一，并正式参战。
The situation was still precarious, though. Constantine hadn’t formally abdicated, and his eldest son George had left the country with him. Venizelos seized the opportunity to install Constantine’s second son Alexander as king. Their coexistence was uneasy at first, but eventually got way better than expected. The young monarch stayed out of politics and called for support to the government. In the meantime, WWI ended, and Greece received eastern Thrace and Smyrna. To keep them, though, the Turkish National Movement had to be dealt with, and soon armed conflicts broke out.
In late summer 1920, Venizelos got back from France, dissolved the parliament and scheduled an election for October 25. Theoretically, his party had an unassailable advantage — he had expanded the country more than anyone and all but fulfilled the irredentist dreams of a Greece spread over “two continents and five seas.” On the other side, his right-wing opponents had formed a broad coalition and were appealing to the people’s war fatigue, conservative worldview and recent humiliation by the Entente during the National Schism.
Then the unexpected happened.
不过，情况仍然不稳定。康斯坦丁还没有正式退位，他的长子乔治和他一起离开了国家。维尼泽洛斯抓住了这个机会，让康斯坦丁的次子亚历山大成为国王。他们的共存一开始很不稳定，但最终比预期的要好得多。这位年轻的君主不参与政治，并呼吁对政府的支持。与此同时，一战结束，希腊得到了色雷斯东部和士麦那。不过，为了保住它们，希腊必须对付土耳其的民族运动，双方很快就爆发了武装冲突。
1920年夏末，维尼泽洛斯从法国回来，解散了议会，并计划在10月25日举行选举。从理论上讲，他的政党有不可动摇的优势--他比任何人都更多地扩大了国家的领土，几乎实现了希腊遍布"两个大陆和五个海洋"的收复失地民族主义梦想。在另一边，他的右翼对手已经形成了一个广泛的联盟，并诉诸于人民对战争的疲倦、保守的世界观和最近在国家分裂期间协约国对希腊的屈辱。
然后，意想不到的事情发生了。
In late summer 1920, Venizelos got back from France, dissolved the parliament and scheduled an election for October 25. Theoretically, his party had an unassailable advantage — he had expanded the country more than anyone and all but fulfilled the irredentist dreams of a Greece spread over “two continents and five seas.” On the other side, his right-wing opponents had formed a broad coalition and were appealing to the people’s war fatigue, conservative worldview and recent humiliation by the Entente during the National Schism.
Then the unexpected happened.
不过，情况仍然不稳定。康斯坦丁还没有正式退位，他的长子乔治和他一起离开了国家。维尼泽洛斯抓住了这个机会，让康斯坦丁的次子亚历山大成为国王。他们的共存一开始很不稳定，但最终比预期的要好得多。这位年轻的君主不参与政治，并呼吁对政府的支持。与此同时，一战结束，希腊得到了色雷斯东部和士麦那。不过，为了保住它们，希腊必须对付土耳其的民族运动，双方很快就爆发了武装冲突。
1920年夏末，维尼泽洛斯从法国回来，解散了议会，并计划在10月25日举行选举。从理论上讲，他的政党有不可动摇的优势--他比任何人都更多地扩大了国家的领土，几乎实现了希腊遍布"两个大陆和五个海洋"的收复失地民族主义梦想。在另一边，他的右翼对手已经形成了一个广泛的联盟，并诉诸于人民对战争的疲倦、保守的世界观和最近在国家分裂期间协约国对希腊的屈辱。
然后，意想不到的事情发生了。
On October 2, Alexander took his dog Fritsch, a German Shepherd he had received as a gift from a British officer, for yet another walk around the Tatoi royal estate. It was a period of idleness for the 27-year-old king, whose main concern at the time was the pregnancy of his morganatic wife. When Alexander reached the vineyard manager’s place, his dog got into a fight with two of the estate’s domesticated Barbary macaques, who happened to be nearby. Alexander tried to separate them, only to be bitten by one of the monkeys, once on the leg and once on the arm or torso.
At first, the wounds were shrugged off as insignificant and not cauterized. A couple of days later, however, Alexander grew sick with high fever, swelling, tachycardia and pain. The best physicians in Athens, including university professors, were called to Tatoi, where they would take turns treating him. Some diagnosed him with Streptococcus bacterial infection, and reports claim one of his physicians tried to prepare an ad hoc Streptococcus serum. At any rate, things only got worse, especially after the first days of October.
10 月 2 日，亚历山大带着他的狗弗里奇（他从一名英国军官那里收到的礼物）再次在塔托伊皇家庄园散步。对于这位 27 岁的国王来说，这是一段无所事事的时期，当时他最关心的是他平民妻子的怀孕。当亚历山大到达葡萄园经理的住处时，他的狗与恰好在附近的两只庄园驯养的巴巴里猕猴发生争执。亚历山大试图将它们分开，却被其中一只猴子咬伤，一次咬在腿上，一次咬在手臂或躯干上。
起初，伤口被认为是微不足道的，没有被烧灼（消毒）。然而，几天后，亚历山大病倒了，出现高烧、肿胀、心动过速和疼痛。雅典最好的医生，包括大学教授，被召集到塔托伊，轮流为他治疗。一些人诊断他患有链球菌细菌感染，并且有报道称他的一位医生试图制备一种特殊的链球菌血清。无论如何，事情变得越来越糟，尤其是在十月的头几天之后。
At first, the wounds were shrugged off as insignificant and not cauterized. A couple of days later, however, Alexander grew sick with high fever, swelling, tachycardia and pain. The best physicians in Athens, including university professors, were called to Tatoi, where they would take turns treating him. Some diagnosed him with Streptococcus bacterial infection, and reports claim one of his physicians tried to prepare an ad hoc Streptococcus serum. At any rate, things only got worse, especially after the first days of October.
10 月 2 日，亚历山大带着他的狗弗里奇（他从一名英国军官那里收到的礼物）再次在塔托伊皇家庄园散步。对于这位 27 岁的国王来说，这是一段无所事事的时期，当时他最关心的是他平民妻子的怀孕。当亚历山大到达葡萄园经理的住处时，他的狗与恰好在附近的两只庄园驯养的巴巴里猕猴发生争执。亚历山大试图将它们分开，却被其中一只猴子咬伤，一次咬在腿上，一次咬在手臂或躯干上。
起初，伤口被认为是微不足道的，没有被烧灼（消毒）。然而，几天后，亚历山大病倒了，出现高烧、肿胀、心动过速和疼痛。雅典最好的医生，包括大学教授，被召集到塔托伊，轮流为他治疗。一些人诊断他患有链球菌细菌感染，并且有报道称他的一位医生试图制备一种特殊的链球菌血清。无论如何，事情变得越来越糟，尤其是在十月的头几天之后。
Ironically, if Alexander were not king, he might have survived. But when it was suggested that his leg be amputated, nobody was willing to take the risk of anesthetizing or crippling him until it was too late to even try. The esteemed physician Georges Widal came from France, but to no avail. Eventually, the king became delirious — he called for his mother and reportedly blamed a broken mirror for his accident or the bad luck he had brought upon himself by lighting his cigarette with the match he had burned one of his father’s letters with. On October 25, he died of sepsis amidst excruciating pain.
The king’s death put things off-balance. Admiral Pavlos Kountouriotis, Venizelos’ close ally, was appointed regent, and the election was postponed until November 14. The single most important consequence, however, was the political boost that the anti-Venizelist coalition received. Overnight, the upcoming general election turned into a de facto referendum over the return of king Constantine. Despite his shortcomings, Constantine enjoyed popularity thanks to his role as commander-in-chief of the army during the Balkan wars.
具有讽刺意味的是，如果亚历山大不是国王，他可能会活下来。但是，当有人建议对他的腿进行截肢时，没有人愿意冒险对他进行麻醉或残废处理，直到为时已晚，甚至无法尝试。受人尊敬的医生乔治-维达尔从法国赶来，但无济于事。最后，国王变得神志不清--他呼唤他的母亲，据说他把自己的事故归咎于一面破碎的镜子，或归咎于他用烧掉父亲一封信的火柴点烟而给自己带来的厄运。10月25日，他在极度的痛苦中死于败血症。
国王的死让事情失去了平衡。维尼泽洛斯的亲密盟友帕夫洛斯-康托里奥蒂斯上将被任命为摄政王，选举被推迟到11月14日。然而，最重要的一个后果是反维尼泽洛斯联盟得到了政治上的推动。一夜之间，即将举行的大选变成了关于康斯坦丁国王回归的事实上的公投。尽管康斯坦丁有缺点，但由于他在巴尔干战争期间担任军队总司令的角色，他享有很高的人气。
The king’s death put things off-balance. Admiral Pavlos Kountouriotis, Venizelos’ close ally, was appointed regent, and the election was postponed until November 14. The single most important consequence, however, was the political boost that the anti-Venizelist coalition received. Overnight, the upcoming general election turned into a de facto referendum over the return of king Constantine. Despite his shortcomings, Constantine enjoyed popularity thanks to his role as commander-in-chief of the army during the Balkan wars.
具有讽刺意味的是，如果亚历山大不是国王，他可能会活下来。但是，当有人建议对他的腿进行截肢时，没有人愿意冒险对他进行麻醉或残废处理，直到为时已晚，甚至无法尝试。受人尊敬的医生乔治-维达尔从法国赶来，但无济于事。最后，国王变得神志不清--他呼唤他的母亲，据说他把自己的事故归咎于一面破碎的镜子，或归咎于他用烧掉父亲一封信的火柴点烟而给自己带来的厄运。10月25日，他在极度的痛苦中死于败血症。
国王的死让事情失去了平衡。维尼泽洛斯的亲密盟友帕夫洛斯-康托里奥蒂斯上将被任命为摄政王，选举被推迟到11月14日。然而，最重要的一个后果是反维尼泽洛斯联盟得到了政治上的推动。一夜之间，即将举行的大选变成了关于康斯坦丁国王回归的事实上的公投。尽管康斯坦丁有缺点，但由于他在巴尔干战争期间担任军队总司令的角色，他享有很高的人气。
Indeed, the tragic event is arguably what tipped the political scales. On November 14, in one of the closest election results in Greek history as far as popular vote is concerned, the anti-Venizelist coalition won a strong majority of parliament seats. Venizelos himself failed to get reelected and left the country. Queen Olga, Constantine’s mother and the only royal family member in the country at the time, took over as regent. On December 5, a controversial referendum that was boycotted by the Venizelists approved Constantine’s return.
The royalist government didn’t end the conflict in Asia Minor — quite the contrary. The tide was turning, though. The Greek army was growing weaker due to the transfer or disillusionment of Venizelist officers. Royalists, including members of the royal family, were in bad relations with local Anatolian Greeks. Italy and France, who had been catering to Mustafa Kemal for some time, were now free to do so openly. Using Constantine’s return as something between a real reason and a pretext, they withdrew their financial support, all but officially leading Greece into bankruptcy.
事实上，可以说是这一悲剧事件使政治天平发生了倾斜。11月14日，就民众投票而言，在希腊历史上双方最接近的选举结果之一，反维尼泽洛斯联盟赢得了议会的绝大多数席位。维尼泽洛斯本人未能获得连任并离开了该国。奥尔加女王，康斯坦丁的母亲和当时国内唯一的皇室成员，接任摄政。12月5日，一场被维尼泽尔派抵制的有争议的公投批准了康斯坦丁的回归。
保皇党政府并没有结束小亚细亚的冲突--恰恰相反。不过，局势正在发生变化。由于维尼泽尔派军官的调动或幻想破灭，希腊军队越来越弱。保皇党人，包括皇室成员，与安纳托利亚当地的希腊人关系并不好。一段时间以来一直迎合穆斯塔法·凯末尔的意大利和法国，现在可以自由地公开这样做了。他们利用君士坦丁的回归作为介于真实原因和借口之间的某种东西，撤回了财政支持，这几乎正式导致希腊走向破产。
The royalist government didn’t end the conflict in Asia Minor — quite the contrary. The tide was turning, though. The Greek army was growing weaker due to the transfer or disillusionment of Venizelist officers. Royalists, including members of the royal family, were in bad relations with local Anatolian Greeks. Italy and France, who had been catering to Mustafa Kemal for some time, were now free to do so openly. Using Constantine’s return as something between a real reason and a pretext, they withdrew their financial support, all but officially leading Greece into bankruptcy.
事实上，可以说是这一悲剧事件使政治天平发生了倾斜。11月14日，就民众投票而言，在希腊历史上双方最接近的选举结果之一，反维尼泽洛斯联盟赢得了议会的绝大多数席位。维尼泽洛斯本人未能获得连任并离开了该国。奥尔加女王，康斯坦丁的母亲和当时国内唯一的皇室成员，接任摄政。12月5日，一场被维尼泽尔派抵制的有争议的公投批准了康斯坦丁的回归。
保皇党政府并没有结束小亚细亚的冲突--恰恰相反。不过，局势正在发生变化。由于维尼泽尔派军官的调动或幻想破灭，希腊军队越来越弱。保皇党人，包括皇室成员，与安纳托利亚当地的希腊人关系并不好。一段时间以来一直迎合穆斯塔法·凯末尔的意大利和法国，现在可以自由地公开这样做了。他们利用君士坦丁的回归作为介于真实原因和借口之间的某种东西，撤回了财政支持，这几乎正式导致希腊走向破产。
The rest, as they say, is history. In late 1922, the Anatolian front collapsed. Smyrna was burned, the Greek army retreated, and Anatolian Greeks faced a humanitarian tragedy. King Constantine abandoned the country again, half the royalist government were executed for high treason after a military coup, and Venizelos returned. In the negotiations that ensued, it was agreed that all Orthodox Christians living in Turkey (except Constantinople, Imbros and Tenedos) would leave for Greece. After more than 3,000 years, Greek presence was eradicated from Asia Minor.
It’s hard to guess how things would have played out if Alexander hadn’t died in 1920. Of course, it’s true that even a Venizelist victory in the election might not have been enough. History is determined by far more than great men’s personal decisions and interactions. Greece was fighting an uphill battle anyway, and the international milieu was not what it used to be back in 1917 or even early 1920. Yet the story is interesting both as a “What if?” mental exercise and as an example of the games fortune plays. Sometimes, the bite of a monkey can change history.
Above: Panathenaic Stadium, 1920. Prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos (left) side by side with king Alexander (right).
其余的，正如他们所说，已经成为了历史。1922 年底，安纳托利亚前线崩溃。士麦那被烧毁，希腊军队撤退，安纳托利亚希腊人面临人道主义悲剧。康斯坦丁国王再次弃国，军事政变后保皇党政府半数被以叛国罪处决，维尼泽洛斯归来。在随后的谈判中，同意将居住在土耳其的所有东正教基督徒（除了君士坦丁堡、因布罗斯和特内多斯）迁往希腊。3000 多年后，希腊人从小亚细亚消失了。
很难猜测如果亚历山大没有在 1920 年去世，事情会如何发展。当然，即使维尼泽洛斯在选举中获胜也可能是不够的。决定历史的远不止伟人的个人决定和互动。无论如何，希腊正在打一场艰苦的战斗，国际环境已不再是 1917 年甚至 1920 年初的样子。然而，这个故事很有趣，既可以让人畅想“如果……又会怎样？” ，又是一个命运无常的例子。有时候，一只猴子的一口，就能改变历史。
上图。1920年，帕纳特纳克体育场。首相埃莱夫特里奥斯-维尼泽洛斯（左）与国王亚历山大（右）并排。
It’s hard to guess how things would have played out if Alexander hadn’t died in 1920. Of course, it’s true that even a Venizelist victory in the election might not have been enough. History is determined by far more than great men’s personal decisions and interactions. Greece was fighting an uphill battle anyway, and the international milieu was not what it used to be back in 1917 or even early 1920. Yet the story is interesting both as a “What if?” mental exercise and as an example of the games fortune plays. Sometimes, the bite of a monkey can change history.
Above: Panathenaic Stadium, 1920. Prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos (left) side by side with king Alexander (right).
其余的，正如他们所说，已经成为了历史。1922 年底，安纳托利亚前线崩溃。士麦那被烧毁，希腊军队撤退，安纳托利亚希腊人面临人道主义悲剧。康斯坦丁国王再次弃国，军事政变后保皇党政府半数被以叛国罪处决，维尼泽洛斯归来。在随后的谈判中，同意将居住在土耳其的所有东正教基督徒（除了君士坦丁堡、因布罗斯和特内多斯）迁往希腊。3000 多年后，希腊人从小亚细亚消失了。
很难猜测如果亚历山大没有在 1920 年去世，事情会如何发展。当然，即使维尼泽洛斯在选举中获胜也可能是不够的。决定历史的远不止伟人的个人决定和互动。无论如何，希腊正在打一场艰苦的战斗，国际环境已不再是 1917 年甚至 1920 年初的样子。然而，这个故事很有趣，既可以让人畅想“如果……又会怎样？” ，又是一个命运无常的例子。有时候，一只猴子的一口，就能改变历史。
上图。1920年，帕纳特纳克体育场。首相埃莱夫特里奥斯-维尼泽洛斯（左）与国王亚历山大（右）并排。
Gökdeniz
Well there was a good chance Greece would lose the “conflict” in Asia Minor whether the king had died or not so I am not sure how this relates exactly to butterfly effect, i would be happy to hear your reasoning.
无论国王是否死亡，希腊都很有可能在小亚细亚的 "冲突 "中失败，所以我不确定这与蝴蝶效应有什么关系，我很想听听你的理由。
Well there was a good chance Greece would lose the “conflict” in Asia Minor whether the king had died or not so I am not sure how this relates exactly to butterfly effect, i would be happy to hear your reasoning.
无论国王是否死亡，希腊都很有可能在小亚细亚的 "冲突 "中失败，所以我不确定这与蝴蝶效应有什么关系，我很想听听你的理由。
Eleftherios Tserkezis
I kind of addressed that at the end of my answer. Although we cannot really say Greece was set to win the war, the outcome could be different, either regarding the peace terms or Greece's relationship with the Entente.
我在回答的最后有点涉及到这个问题。虽然我们不能真的说希腊注定要赢得这场战争，但结果可能是不同的，无论是关于和平条款还是希腊与协约国的关系。
I kind of addressed that at the end of my answer. Although we cannot really say Greece was set to win the war, the outcome could be different, either regarding the peace terms or Greece's relationship with the Entente.
我在回答的最后有点涉及到这个问题。虽然我们不能真的说希腊注定要赢得这场战争，但结果可能是不同的，无论是关于和平条款还是希腊与协约国的关系。
Gökdeniz
Yes I see that but the population exchange wasnt done solely because of the conflict anyway and as far as I know, it was a separete treaty that was only briefly discussed in Leusanne. I can see where you are coming from but I dont think this would be the best example for the butterfly effect as there are too many unknowns and what ifs involved.
是的，我看到了，但无论如何，人口交换并不仅仅是因为冲突，据我所知，这是一个独立的条约，只是在洛桑进行了简短的讨论。我明白你的想法，但我不认为这是蝴蝶效应的最佳例子，因为有太多的未知因素和如果涉及其中。
Yes I see that but the population exchange wasnt done solely because of the conflict anyway and as far as I know, it was a separete treaty that was only briefly discussed in Leusanne. I can see where you are coming from but I dont think this would be the best example for the butterfly effect as there are too many unknowns and what ifs involved.
是的，我看到了，但无论如何，人口交换并不仅仅是因为冲突，据我所知，这是一个独立的条约，只是在洛桑进行了简短的讨论。我明白你的想法，但我不认为这是蝴蝶效应的最佳例子，因为有太多的未知因素和如果涉及其中。
Gus Williams
Hello Gokdeniz,
I disagree with your suggestion that the population exchange was inevitable. It only came about because Ataturk managed to stabilize the frontlines in the war against the Greeks, which allowed him to establish the modern Turkish state and then drive Greek forces from Anatolia.
The election of the Royalists in Greece was a major contributor to Ataturk's success. Let me explain why.
First, the return of King Constantine to Greece upset Greece's Entente allies - Britain, France, and Italy all despised Constantine and to see him return to power and be on the verge of major gains in Anatolia ranked. Had Venizelos stayed in power, Greece's allies would have supported Greece more and for longer
Second, when King Constantine returned to power the leadership of the military was purged, with Republica. leaders who had just spent 4 years at war and a year advancing into Anatolia replaced with Royalistsbwith either no experience, or experience from the Balkan Wars.
In 1921 Constantine committed Greek forces to the key Battle of the Sakarya - Wikipedia. It was a close run affair and Ataturk triumphed, allowing him to establish the Republic of Turkey and drive the Greeks from Anatolia.
The question we should ask ourselves is if Venizelos had stayed in power in 1920 would the Greeks have committed to the same battle? Would the experienced Greek generals have been more successful?
It is a what if and we don't know the answer. We do know that the Royalist Greek generals were less experienced than the Venizelist generals. We should be prepared for a Venizelist Greek force winning the Battle of Sakarya, and such a victory would have imperiled the Ataturk-led Republic of Turkey. It would have also led to substantial portions of Anatolia being annexed by Greece, reducing much of th population exchane.
I am not guaranteeing a Venizelist Greek victory at the Battlenof Sakarya, but it certainly seems more likely.
你好，Gokdeniz。
我不同意你关于人口交换是不可避免的说法。它的出现只是因为阿塔图尔克在与希腊人的战争中成功地稳定了前线，这使他能够建立现代土耳其国家，然后将希腊军队赶出安纳托利亚。
希腊保皇党的选举是阿塔图尔克成功的一个重要因素。让我解释一下原因。
首先，康斯坦丁国王回到希腊让希腊的协约国盟友感到不安--英国、法国和意大利都看不起康斯坦丁，看到他重新掌权并即将在安纳托利亚取得重大进展，这让希腊的协约国盟友感到不安。如果维尼泽洛斯继续执政，希腊的盟友会更多、更长时间地支持希腊
第二，当康斯坦丁国王重新掌权时，军队的共和派领导层被清洗，刚刚经历了4年战争和一年进军安纳托利亚的共和派领导人被没有经验或只有巴尔干战争经验的保皇派所取代。
1921年，康斯坦丁让希腊军队参加了关键的萨卡里亚战役--维基百科。这是一场势均力敌的战役，阿塔图尔克取得了最终胜利，使他得以建立土耳其共和国，并将希腊人赶出安纳托利亚。
我们应该问自己的问题是，如果维尼泽洛斯在1920年继续执政，希腊人是否会投入到同样的战斗中？经验丰富的希腊将军们会不会更成功？
这是个假设，我们不知道答案。我们确实知道的一点是，保皇派的希腊将军们比维尼泽尔派的将军们经验不足。我们应该可以为维尼泽尔派的希腊部队赢得萨卡里亚战役做好准备，而这样的胜利会危及阿塔图尔克领导的土耳其共和国。这也会导致安纳托利亚的大部分地区被希腊吞并，减少许多人口。
我并不保证希腊在萨卡里亚战役中取得胜利，但它肯定更有可能。
Hello Gokdeniz,
I disagree with your suggestion that the population exchange was inevitable. It only came about because Ataturk managed to stabilize the frontlines in the war against the Greeks, which allowed him to establish the modern Turkish state and then drive Greek forces from Anatolia.
The election of the Royalists in Greece was a major contributor to Ataturk's success. Let me explain why.
First, the return of King Constantine to Greece upset Greece's Entente allies - Britain, France, and Italy all despised Constantine and to see him return to power and be on the verge of major gains in Anatolia ranked. Had Venizelos stayed in power, Greece's allies would have supported Greece more and for longer
Second, when King Constantine returned to power the leadership of the military was purged, with Republica. leaders who had just spent 4 years at war and a year advancing into Anatolia replaced with Royalistsbwith either no experience, or experience from the Balkan Wars.
In 1921 Constantine committed Greek forces to the key Battle of the Sakarya - Wikipedia. It was a close run affair and Ataturk triumphed, allowing him to establish the Republic of Turkey and drive the Greeks from Anatolia.
The question we should ask ourselves is if Venizelos had stayed in power in 1920 would the Greeks have committed to the same battle? Would the experienced Greek generals have been more successful?
It is a what if and we don't know the answer. We do know that the Royalist Greek generals were less experienced than the Venizelist generals. We should be prepared for a Venizelist Greek force winning the Battle of Sakarya, and such a victory would have imperiled the Ataturk-led Republic of Turkey. It would have also led to substantial portions of Anatolia being annexed by Greece, reducing much of th population exchane.
I am not guaranteeing a Venizelist Greek victory at the Battlenof Sakarya, but it certainly seems more likely.
你好，Gokdeniz。
我不同意你关于人口交换是不可避免的说法。它的出现只是因为阿塔图尔克在与希腊人的战争中成功地稳定了前线，这使他能够建立现代土耳其国家，然后将希腊军队赶出安纳托利亚。
希腊保皇党的选举是阿塔图尔克成功的一个重要因素。让我解释一下原因。
首先，康斯坦丁国王回到希腊让希腊的协约国盟友感到不安--英国、法国和意大利都看不起康斯坦丁，看到他重新掌权并即将在安纳托利亚取得重大进展，这让希腊的协约国盟友感到不安。如果维尼泽洛斯继续执政，希腊的盟友会更多、更长时间地支持希腊
第二，当康斯坦丁国王重新掌权时，军队的共和派领导层被清洗，刚刚经历了4年战争和一年进军安纳托利亚的共和派领导人被没有经验或只有巴尔干战争经验的保皇派所取代。
1921年，康斯坦丁让希腊军队参加了关键的萨卡里亚战役--维基百科。这是一场势均力敌的战役，阿塔图尔克取得了最终胜利，使他得以建立土耳其共和国，并将希腊人赶出安纳托利亚。
我们应该问自己的问题是，如果维尼泽洛斯在1920年继续执政，希腊人是否会投入到同样的战斗中？经验丰富的希腊将军们会不会更成功？
这是个假设，我们不知道答案。我们确实知道的一点是，保皇派的希腊将军们比维尼泽尔派的将军们经验不足。我们应该可以为维尼泽尔派的希腊部队赢得萨卡里亚战役做好准备，而这样的胜利会危及阿塔图尔克领导的土耳其共和国。这也会导致安纳托利亚的大部分地区被希腊吞并，减少许多人口。
我并不保证希腊在萨卡里亚战役中取得胜利，但它肯定更有可能。
Chuck Allen
Also the death knell for the surviving Armenians, who were rounded up as the Greeks were pushed out. Very sad.
这也是幸存的亚美尼亚人的丧钟，他们在希腊人被赶走的时候被围捕。非常可悲。
Also the death knell for the surviving Armenians, who were rounded up as the Greeks were pushed out. Very sad.
这也是幸存的亚美尼亚人的丧钟，他们在希腊人被赶走的时候被围捕。非常可悲。
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