历史上从未像现在这样需要大规模的反战运动
正文翻译
The US State Department''s Victoria Nuland is now saying that the US is supporting Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, drawing sharp rebukes from Moscow with a stern reminder that the peninsula is a "red line" for the Kremlin which will result in escalations in the conflict if crossed. On Friday, Ukraine''s President Zelensky told the press that Kyiv is preparing a large offensive for the "de-occupation" of Crimea, which Moscow has considered a part of the Russian Federation since its annexation in 2014.
美国国务院的维多利亚.纽兰现在表示，美国支持乌克兰对克里米亚的打击，这引起了莫斯科的强烈谴责，并严厉提醒美国，克里米亚半岛是克里姆林宫的“红线”，如果越过这条红线，将导致冲突升级。周五，乌克兰总统泽连斯基对媒体说，基辅正在准备对克里米亚发动大规模攻势，以“解除俄罗斯对克里米亚的占领”。自2014年吞并克里米亚以来，莫斯科一直认为克里米亚是俄罗斯联邦的一部分。
Things are escalating more and more rapidly between the US-centralized power structure and the few remaining nations with the will and the means to stand against its demands for total obedience, namely China, Russia, and Iran. The world is becoming increasingly split between two groups of governments who are becoming increasingly hostile toward each other, and you don't have to be a historian to know it's probably a bad sign when that happens. Especially in the age of nuclear weapons.
有着中央集权的权力结构的美国和少数几个有意愿和手段反对完全服从其要求的国家，即中国、俄罗斯和伊朗之间的局势正在迅速升级。世界正日益分裂为两个集团，而这两个集团彼此之间的敌意也越来越大，即使你不是历史学家，也知道这种情况发生时可能是个坏兆头。尤其是在核武器时代。
有着中央集权的权力结构的美国和少数几个有意愿和手段反对完全服从其要求的国家，即中国、俄罗斯和伊朗之间的局势正在迅速升级。世界正日益分裂为两个集团，而这两个集团彼此之间的敌意也越来越大，即使你不是历史学家，也知道这种情况发生时可能是个坏兆头。尤其是在核武器时代。
The US State Department''s Victoria Nuland is now saying that the US is supporting Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, drawing sharp rebukes from Moscow with a stern reminder that the peninsula is a "red line" for the Kremlin which will result in escalations in the conflict if crossed. On Friday, Ukraine''s President Zelensky told the press that Kyiv is preparing a large offensive for the "de-occupation" of Crimea, which Moscow has considered a part of the Russian Federation since its annexation in 2014.
美国国务院的维多利亚.纽兰现在表示，美国支持乌克兰对克里米亚的打击，这引起了莫斯科的强烈谴责，并严厉提醒美国，克里米亚半岛是克里姆林宫的“红线”，如果越过这条红线，将导致冲突升级。周五，乌克兰总统泽连斯基对媒体说，基辅正在准备对克里米亚发动大规模攻势，以“解除俄罗斯对克里米亚的占领”。自2014年吞并克里米亚以来，莫斯科一直认为克里米亚是俄罗斯联邦的一部分。
As Anatol Lieven explained for Jacobin earlier this month, this exact scenario is currently the one most likely to lead to a sequence of escalations ending in nuclear war. In light of the aforementioned recent revelations, the opening paragraph of Lieven's article is even more chilling to read now than it was when it came out a couple of weeks ago:
正如阿纳托尔.列文本月早些时候为雅各宾杂志解释的那样，目前这种情况有可能导致一系列升级，最终导致核战争。鉴于上述最近的爆料，利芬文章的开头一段读起来比几周前更让人不寒而栗:
正如阿纳托尔.列文本月早些时候为雅各宾杂志解释的那样，目前这种情况有可能导致一系列升级，最终导致核战争。鉴于上述最近的爆料，利芬文章的开头一段读起来比几周前更让人不寒而栗:
The greatest threat of nuclear catastrophe that humanity has ever faced is now centered on the Crimean peninsula. In recent months, the Ukrainian government and army have repeatedly vowed to reconquer this territory, which Russia seized and annexed in 2014. The Russian establishment, and most ordinary Russians, for their part believe that holding Crimea is vital to Russian identity and Russia’s position as a great power. As a Russian liberal acquaintance (and no admirer of Putin) told me, “In the last resort, America would use nuclear weapons to save Hawaii and Pearl Harbor, and if we have to, we should use them to save Crimea.”
人类有史以来面临的最大核威胁现在集中在克里米亚半岛。最近几个月，乌克兰政府和军队多次誓言要重新征服这片2014年被俄罗斯占领并吞并的领土。俄罗斯当权派和大多数普通俄罗斯人都认为，拥有克里米亚对俄罗斯的身份认同和俄罗斯的大国地位至关重要。正如一位俄罗斯自由派人士(并非普京的仰慕者)告诉我的那样，“在万不得已的情况下，美国将使用核武器来拯救夏威夷和珍珠港，如果迫不得已，我们也应该用它们来拯救克里米亚。”
人类有史以来面临的最大核威胁现在集中在克里米亚半岛。最近几个月，乌克兰政府和军队多次誓言要重新征服这片2014年被俄罗斯占领并吞并的领土。俄罗斯当权派和大多数普通俄罗斯人都认为，拥有克里米亚对俄罗斯的身份认同和俄罗斯的大国地位至关重要。正如一位俄罗斯自由派人士(并非普京的仰慕者)告诉我的那样，“在万不得已的情况下，美国将使用核武器来拯救夏威夷和珍珠港，如果迫不得已，我们也应该用它们来拯救克里米亚。”
Whether the Ukraine war brings on a global catastrophe will hinge in large part on whether Washington decides to back a Ukrainian effort to retake the Crimean peninsula.
乌克兰战争是否会带来一场全球灾难，在很大程度上取决于华盛顿是否决定支持乌克兰夺回克里米亚半岛。
乌克兰战争是否会带来一场全球灾难，在很大程度上取决于华盛顿是否决定支持乌克兰夺回克里米亚半岛。
And that's just Russia. The war in Ukraine is being used to escalate against all powers not aligned with the US-centralized alliance, with recent developments including drone attacks on an Iranian weapons factory which reportedly arms Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and Chinese companies being sanctioned for “backfill activities in support of Russia’s defence sector” following US accusations that the Chinese government is preparing to arm Russia in the war.
这还只是俄罗斯面临的情况。乌克兰战争正被升级，用来针对所有不与美国为中心的联盟结盟的国家，最近的事态发展包括无人机袭击了伊朗一家武器工厂，据报道该工厂为乌克兰战争中的俄罗斯士兵提供了武器，以及中国企业因所谓的“支持俄罗斯国防部门的回填活动”而受到制裁，此前美国指责中国正准备在这场战争中武装俄罗斯。
这还只是俄罗斯面临的情况。乌克兰战争正被升级，用来针对所有不与美国为中心的联盟结盟的国家，最近的事态发展包括无人机袭击了伊朗一家武器工厂，据报道该工厂为乌克兰战争中的俄罗斯士兵提供了武器，以及中国企业因所谓的“支持俄罗斯国防部门的回填活动”而受到制裁，此前美国指责中国正准备在这场战争中武装俄罗斯。
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly been holding multiple meetings with top military officials regarding potential future attacks on Iran to neutralize the alleged threat of Iran developing a nuclear arsenal, a "threat" that Netanyahu has personally been lying about for years.
据报道，以色列总理本雅明.内塔尼亚胡与高级军事官员举行了多次会议，讨论未来可能对伊朗发动的袭击，以消除伊朗发展核武库的所谓威胁，内塔尼亚胡个人多年来一直在撒谎。
据报道，以色列总理本雅明.内塔尼亚胡与高级军事官员举行了多次会议，讨论未来可能对伊朗发动的袭击，以消除伊朗发展核武库的所谓威胁，内塔尼亚胡个人多年来一直在撒谎。
If you've been reading Antiwar.com you've been seeing new articles about the latest imperial escalations against China on a near-daily basis now. Sometimes they come out multiple times per day; this past Thursday Dave DeCamp put out two completely separate news stories titled "US Plans to Expand Military Presence in Taiwan, a Move That Risks Provoking China" and "Philippines in Talks With US, Australia on Joint South China Sea Patrols". Taiwan and the South China Sea are two powderkeg flashpoints where war could quickly erupt at any time in a number of different ways.
如果你一直在看Antiwar.com，你现在几乎每天都能看到关于帝国主义对中国的矛盾升级的新文章。有时他们一天会发好几篇;上周四，Dave DeCamp发布了两篇完全不同的新闻，标题是《美国计划扩大在台湾地区的军事力量，此举可能会激怒中国》和《菲律宾与美国、澳大利亚就南海联合巡逻进行谈判》。台湾地区和南海是两个火药桶，战争随时可能以多种不同的方式迅速爆发。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
如果你一直在看Antiwar.com，你现在几乎每天都能看到关于帝国主义对中国的矛盾升级的新文章。有时他们一天会发好几篇;上周四，Dave DeCamp发布了两篇完全不同的新闻，标题是《美国计划扩大在台湾地区的军事力量，此举可能会激怒中国》和《菲律宾与美国、澳大利亚就南海联合巡逻进行谈判》。台湾地区和南海是两个火药桶，战争随时可能以多种不同的方式迅速爆发。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
If you know where to look for good upxes on the behavior of the US-centralized empire and you follow them from day to day, it's clear that things are accelerating toward a global conflict of unimaginable horror. As bad as things look right now, the future our current trajectory has us pointed toward is much, much, much worse.
如果你知道在哪里可以找到关于美国帝国主义行为的最新动态，并且你每天都在关注它们，很明显就会发现，事情正在加速走向一场难以想象的恐怖全球冲突。虽然现在的情况看起来很糟糕，但我们目前的轨迹为我们指明的未来可能会更糟糕。
如果你知道在哪里可以找到关于美国帝国主义行为的最新动态，并且你每天都在关注它们，很明显就会发现，事情正在加速走向一场难以想象的恐怖全球冲突。虽然现在的情况看起来很糟糕，但我们目前的轨迹为我们指明的未来可能会更糟糕。
Empire apologists will frx this trajectory toward global disaster as an entirely one-sided affair, with bloody-fanged tyrants trying to take over the world because they are evil and hate freedom, and the US-centralized alliance either cast in the role of poor widdle victim or heroic defender of the weak and helpless depending on which generates more sympathy on that day.
美帝国的辩护者会将这种走向全球灾难的轨迹描述为完全由一方的错误行为导致的，某个长着血牙的暴君正试图接管世界，因为他们是邪恶的，他们憎恨自由。以美国为中心的联盟要么扮演可怜的无助受害者的角色，要么扮演弱者和无助者的英雄捍卫者，这取决于哪一种身份能在那天获得民众更多的支持。
美帝国的辩护者会将这种走向全球灾难的轨迹描述为完全由一方的错误行为导致的，某个长着血牙的暴君正试图接管世界，因为他们是邪恶的，他们憎恨自由。以美国为中心的联盟要么扮演可怜的无助受害者的角色，要么扮演弱者和无助者的英雄捍卫者，这取决于哪一种身份能在那天获得民众更多的支持。
These people are lying. Any intellectually honest research into the west's aggressions and provocations against both Russia and China will show you that Russia and China are reacting defensively to the empire's campaign to secure US unipolar planetary hegemony; you might not agree with those reactions, but you cannot deny that they are reactions to a clear and deliberate aggressor.
这些人在撒谎。任何关于西方对俄罗斯和中国的侵略和挑衅的理性诚实的研究都会告诉你，俄罗斯和中国正在对美帝国确保单极星球霸权的运动做出防御性反应;你可能不同意这些反应，但你不能否认它们是对一个明确而蓄意的侵略者的反应。
这些人在撒谎。任何关于西方对俄罗斯和中国的侵略和挑衅的理性诚实的研究都会告诉你，俄罗斯和中国正在对美帝国确保单极星球霸权的运动做出防御性反应;你可能不同意这些反应，但你不能否认它们是对一个明确而蓄意的侵略者的反应。
This is important to understand, because whenever you say that something must be done to try and avert an Atomic Age world war, you'll get empire apologists saying "Well go protest in Moscow and Beijing then," as though the US power alliance is some kind of passive witness to all this. Which is of course complete bullshit; if World War III does indeed befall us, it will be because of choices that were made by the drivers of the western empire while ignoring off-ramp after off-ramp.
理解这一点很重要，因为每当你说必须做些什么来避免核武器时代的世界大战时，你就会听到美帝国的辩护者说“那就去莫斯科和北京抗议吧”，就好像美国的大国联盟只是这一切的某种被动见证者。这当然完全是扯淡;如果第三次世界大战真的降临到我们头上，那将是因为西方帝国的司机们所做的错误选择导致的，他们无视了一个又一个可能让事件转向的出口。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
理解这一点很重要，因为每当你说必须做些什么来避免核武器时代的世界大战时，你就会听到美帝国的辩护者说“那就去莫斯科和北京抗议吧”，就好像美国的大国联盟只是这一切的某种被动见证者。这当然完全是扯淡;如果第三次世界大战真的降临到我们头上，那将是因为西方帝国的司机们所做的错误选择导致的，他们无视了一个又一个可能让事件转向的出口。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
This tendency to flip reality and frx the western imperial power structure as the reactive force for peace against malevolent warmongers serves to help quash the emergence of a robust anti-war movement in the west, because if your own government is virtuous and innocent in a conflict then there's no good reason to go protesting it. But that's exactly what urgently needs to happen, because these people are driving us to our doom.
这种颠倒黑白、将西方帝国结构美化为对抗恶意战争贩子的正义力量的倾向，会压制西方正在蓬勃兴起的反战运动，因为如果你自己的政府在冲突中是善良无辜的，那么就没有理由去抗议它。但这正是我们迫切需要做的事情，因为这些人正在把我们推向毁灭。
这种颠倒黑白、将西方帝国结构美化为对抗恶意战争贩子的正义力量的倾向，会压制西方正在蓬勃兴起的反战运动，因为如果你自己的政府在冲突中是善良无辜的，那么就没有理由去抗议它。但这正是我们迫切需要做的事情，因为这些人正在把我们推向毁灭。
In fact, it is fair to say that there has never in history been a time when the need to forcefully oppose the warmongering of our own western governments was more urgent. The attacks on Vietnam and Iraq were horrific atrocities which unleashed unfathomable suffering upon our world, but they did not pose any major existential threat to the world as a whole. The wars in Vietnam and Iraq killed millions; we're talking about a conflict that can kill billions.
事实上，可以公平地说，历史上从来没有哪个时候比现在更迫切地需要有力地反对我们西方政府的好战行为。对越南和伊拉克的袭击是可怕的暴行，给我们的世界带来了无法估量的痛苦，但它们并没有对整个世界构成任何重大的生存威胁。越南战争和伊拉克战争造成数百万人死亡;但我们谈论的是一场可以杀死数十亿人的冲突。
事实上，可以公平地说，历史上从来没有哪个时候比现在更迫切地需要有力地反对我们西方政府的好战行为。对越南和伊拉克的袭击是可怕的暴行，给我们的世界带来了无法估量的痛苦，但它们并没有对整个世界构成任何重大的生存威胁。越南战争和伊拉克战争造成数百万人死亡;但我们谈论的是一场可以杀死数十亿人的冲突。
Each of the World Wars was in turn the worst single thing that happened to our species as a whole up until that point in history. World War I was the worst thing that ever happened until World War II happened, and if World War III happens it will almost certainly make World War II look like a schoolyard tussle. This is because all of the major players in that conflict would be armed with nuclear weapons, and at some point some of them are going to be faced with strong incentives to use them. Once that happens, Mutually Assured Destruction ceases to protect us from armageddon, and the "Mutual" and "Destruction" components come in to play.
每一次世界大战都是历史上发生在整个人类身上的最糟糕的事情。第一次世界大战是在第二次世界大战之前发生的最糟糕的事情，如果第三次世界大战发生，它几乎肯定会让第二次世界大战看起来像一场校园斗殴。这是因为这场冲突中的所有主要参与者都配有核武器，在某个时候，其中一些国家将面临必须使用核武器的绝境。一旦发生这种情况，“共同毁灭保证”就不再能保护我们免受世界末日的影响，“共同”和“毁灭”组件就开始发挥作用了。
每一次世界大战都是历史上发生在整个人类身上的最糟糕的事情。第一次世界大战是在第二次世界大战之前发生的最糟糕的事情，如果第三次世界大战发生，它几乎肯定会让第二次世界大战看起来像一场校园斗殴。这是因为这场冲突中的所有主要参与者都配有核武器，在某个时候，其中一些国家将面临必须使用核武器的绝境。一旦发生这种情况，“共同毁灭保证”就不再能保护我们免受世界末日的影响，“共同”和“毁灭”组件就开始发挥作用了。
None of this needs to happen. There is nothing written in adamantine which says the US must rule the world with an iron fist no matter the cost and no matter the risk. There is nothing inscribed upon the fabric of reality which says nations can't simply coexist peacefully and collaborate toward the common good of all beings, can't turn away from our primitive impulses of domination and control, can't do anything but drift passively toward nuclear annihilation all because a few imperialists in Washington convinced everyone to buy into the doctrine of unipolarism.
这些本不需要发生。没有什么坚不可摧的文字规定必须让美国以铁腕统治世界，而不顾任何代价和风险。没有什么文字规定在现实的结构上，国家之间不能简单地和平共处，为所有人的共同利益合作；不能放弃我们原始的统治和控制的欲望；不能做任何事情，只能被动地走向核毁灭，这一切都是因为华盛顿的几个帝国主义者说服每个人都接受他们单极主义的教义。
这些本不需要发生。没有什么坚不可摧的文字规定必须让美国以铁腕统治世界，而不顾任何代价和风险。没有什么文字规定在现实的结构上，国家之间不能简单地和平共处，为所有人的共同利益合作；不能放弃我们原始的统治和控制的欲望；不能做任何事情，只能被动地走向核毁灭，这一切都是因为华盛顿的几个帝国主义者说服每个人都接受他们单极主义的教义。
But we're not going to turn away from this trajectory unless the masses start using the power of our numbers to force a change from warmongering, militarism and continual escalation toward diplomacy, de-escalation and detente. We need to start organizing against those who would steer our species into extinction, and working to pry their hands away from the steering wheel if they refuse to turn away. We need to resist all efforts to cast inertia on this most sacred of all priorities, and we need to start moving now. We're all on a southbound bus, and it's showing no signs of stopping.
我们无法离开这一轨道，除非我们开始利用我们人数的力量，迫使战争贩子、军国主义的局势持续升级向外交和局势缓和方向转变。我们需要开始把那些反对将我们的物种引向灭绝的人组织起来，如果战争贩子们拒绝转向，我们就要努力把他们的手从方向盘上撬开。我们需要抵制一切在这一最神圣的优先事项上的懒惰行为，我们需要现在就开始行动。因为我们目前都在一辆向南行驶的巴士上，而且丝毫没有停止的迹象。
我们无法离开这一轨道，除非我们开始利用我们人数的力量，迫使战争贩子、军国主义的局势持续升级向外交和局势缓和方向转变。我们需要开始把那些反对将我们的物种引向灭绝的人组织起来，如果战争贩子们拒绝转向，我们就要努力把他们的手从方向盘上撬开。我们需要抵制一切在这一最神圣的优先事项上的懒惰行为，我们需要现在就开始行动。因为我们目前都在一辆向南行驶的巴士上，而且丝毫没有停止的迹象。
评论翻译
Caline
50,000 people attended the peace rally in Berlin yesterday which was organized by German politician Sahra Wagenknecht of The Left party. It's a start, there's more to come.
有5万人参加了昨天在柏林举行的和平集会，这次集会是由德国左翼党政治家萨拉.瓦根克内希特组织的。这是一个开始，未来还会有更多。
50,000 people attended the peace rally in Berlin yesterday which was organized by German politician Sahra Wagenknecht of The Left party. It's a start, there's more to come.
有5万人参加了昨天在柏林举行的和平集会，这次集会是由德国左翼党政治家萨拉.瓦根克内希特组织的。这是一个开始，未来还会有更多。
Outsider
It seems that the only way to get insouciant Americans away from their mindless TV programs and onto the streets is to bring back the draft. Really, the huge Vietnam War protests were more about the draft than the war itself. The draft ended in 1972, but the war didn't come to a complete end until 3 years later. Once the draft ended so did most of the protests.
看来，唯一能让漫不经心的美国人远离他们无脑的电视节目，走上街头的方法就是恢复征兵制度。事实上，关于越南战争的大规模抗议更多的是关于征兵而不是战争本身。征兵在1972年结束，但是战争直到3年后才完全结束。一旦征兵结束，大多数抗议活动也随之结束。
It seems that the only way to get insouciant Americans away from their mindless TV programs and onto the streets is to bring back the draft. Really, the huge Vietnam War protests were more about the draft than the war itself. The draft ended in 1972, but the war didn't come to a complete end until 3 years later. Once the draft ended so did most of the protests.
看来，唯一能让漫不经心的美国人远离他们无脑的电视节目，走上街头的方法就是恢复征兵制度。事实上，关于越南战争的大规模抗议更多的是关于征兵而不是战争本身。征兵在1972年结束，但是战争直到3年后才完全结束。一旦征兵结束，大多数抗议活动也随之结束。
The Black Flag
Someone on this substack wrote that support for all this Ukraine nonsense would evaporate pretty quickly if conscxtion was brought back. All those tweeters and NY Times reader's children being summoned to boot camp.
I think the blue and yellow flags would be returned to a drawer, and their parents/grandparents peace flags dusted off.
有个专栏作者写道，如果恢复征兵制，对乌克兰的支持很快就会消失。因为那些推特用户和《纽约时报》读者的孩子会被召集到新兵训练营。我想蓝色和黄色的旗帜会被放回抽屉里，而他们的父母/祖父母的和平旗帜则会被拿出来掸去灰尘。
Someone on this substack wrote that support for all this Ukraine nonsense would evaporate pretty quickly if conscxtion was brought back. All those tweeters and NY Times reader's children being summoned to boot camp.
I think the blue and yellow flags would be returned to a drawer, and their parents/grandparents peace flags dusted off.
有个专栏作者写道，如果恢复征兵制，对乌克兰的支持很快就会消失。因为那些推特用户和《纽约时报》读者的孩子会被召集到新兵训练营。我想蓝色和黄色的旗帜会被放回抽屉里，而他们的父母/祖父母的和平旗帜则会被拿出来掸去灰尘。
Yuri Bezmenov
Victoria Nuland is a psychotic karen. Just like Lynne Tracy. Gotta love diverse warmongering!
维多利亚.纽兰是个疯子。就像琳恩.特雷西一样。喜欢各种各样的战争贩子!
Victoria Nuland is a psychotic karen. Just like Lynne Tracy. Gotta love diverse warmongering!
维多利亚.纽兰是个疯子。就像琳恩.特雷西一样。喜欢各种各样的战争贩子!
The Revolution Continues
Exactly. Complaining isn't taking action. Marching a million strong into the White House is.
完全正确。抱怨不如采取行动。让一百万人进入白宫才是王道
Exactly. Complaining isn't taking action. Marching a million strong into the White House is.
完全正确。抱怨不如采取行动。让一百万人进入白宫才是王道
Feral Finster
Even that would be ignored or steamrolled, unless and until there was force to back it up.
For that is the only language sociopaths understand.
即使这样，也会被无视或镇压，除非有强大的武力在背后支撑。因为这是反社会的战争贩子唯一懂的语言。
Even that would be ignored or steamrolled, unless and until there was force to back it up.
For that is the only language sociopaths understand.
即使这样，也会被无视或镇压，除非有强大的武力在背后支撑。因为这是反社会的战争贩子唯一懂的语言。
The Revolution Continues
Massive numbers are difficult to steamroll.
如果人数足够多的话很难被镇压。
Massive numbers are difficult to steamroll.
如果人数足够多的话很难被镇压。
Elisabeth
Still I think it would be worth a try, but people are too passive, they do not recognize what is happening ...
我认为这值得一试，但是人们太被动了，他们没有意识到这个世界将会发生什么…
Still I think it would be worth a try, but people are too passive, they do not recognize what is happening ...
我认为这值得一试，但是人们太被动了，他们没有意识到这个世界将会发生什么…
Feral Finster
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
戈林耸耸肩说:“人民当然不想打仗。”“为什么农场里的一个可怜的懒汉要冒着生命危险参加战争呢，他能做的最好的事情就是安然无恙地回到他的农场。自然，老百姓不想打仗;在俄国，在英国，在美国，在德国都是一样的。这是可以理解的。但是，毕竟决定政策的是国家领导人，牵着人民的鼻子走总是一件简单的事情，无论是民主国家、法西斯独裁国家、议会制国家还是共产主义国家。”
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
戈林耸耸肩说:“人民当然不想打仗。”“为什么农场里的一个可怜的懒汉要冒着生命危险参加战争呢，他能做的最好的事情就是安然无恙地回到他的农场。自然，老百姓不想打仗;在俄国，在英国，在美国，在德国都是一样的。这是可以理解的。但是，毕竟决定政策的是国家领导人，牵着人民的鼻子走总是一件简单的事情，无论是民主国家、法西斯独裁国家、议会制国家还是共产主义国家。”
Lisa Savage
General strike is really the only thing that would bring the U.S./NATO war machine to a screeching halt. May I live to see it.
大罢工是唯一能让美国/北约的战争机器戛然而止的事情。希望我能活着看到它。
General strike is really the only thing that would bring the U.S./NATO war machine to a screeching halt. May I live to see it.
大罢工是唯一能让美国/北约的战争机器戛然而止的事情。希望我能活着看到它。
Mikhael
It'll have to happen in Europe 'cuz it'll never happen in the U.S.
它只能发生在欧洲，因为它永远不会发生在美国
It'll have to happen in Europe 'cuz it'll never happen in the U.S.
它只能发生在欧洲，因为它永远不会发生在美国
Landru
I like how you are thinking. I think CONgress and the Rail Workers let us down. CONgress I expected to screw rail workers, I thought that was the tipping point to general strike. The rail workers walk off and we follow. That was the opportunity of a lifetime in the u.s. There are zero other groups with that power.
我喜欢你的想法。我认为国会和铁路工人让我们失望了。我以为国会会激怒铁路工人，我以为那将是大罢工的引爆点。如果铁路工人起来抗议，我们也跟着抗议，这将是在美国千载难逢的机会，没有任何其他团体拥有这样的力量。
I like how you are thinking. I think CONgress and the Rail Workers let us down. CONgress I expected to screw rail workers, I thought that was the tipping point to general strike. The rail workers walk off and we follow. That was the opportunity of a lifetime in the u.s. There are zero other groups with that power.
我喜欢你的想法。我认为国会和铁路工人让我们失望了。我以为国会会激怒铁路工人，我以为那将是大罢工的引爆点。如果铁路工人起来抗议，我们也跟着抗议，这将是在美国千载难逢的机会，没有任何其他团体拥有这样的力量。
Third-Eye Roll
It's bad enough for the world's most powerful nation to have one Dr. Strangelove in its war industry, but the United States' government is composed entirely of Dr. Strangeloves. This is why America's national elections are completely meaningless. Nothing short of direct revolt by the people has a snowball's chance in hell of changing anything, and even that might not be enough at this point. Hug your loved ones close while you still can.
对于世界上最强大的国家来说，在它的战争工业中有一个奇爱博士已经够糟糕的了，但美国政府完全由奇爱博士组成的。这就是为什么美国的全国选举完全没有意义。只有人民的直接反抗才能像滚雪球一样改变任何事情，而在美国，即使这样可能也不够。所以趁你还有机会，紧紧拥抱你爱的人吧。
It's bad enough for the world's most powerful nation to have one Dr. Strangelove in its war industry, but the United States' government is composed entirely of Dr. Strangeloves. This is why America's national elections are completely meaningless. Nothing short of direct revolt by the people has a snowball's chance in hell of changing anything, and even that might not be enough at this point. Hug your loved ones close while you still can.
对于世界上最强大的国家来说，在它的战争工业中有一个奇爱博士已经够糟糕的了，但美国政府完全由奇爱博士组成的。这就是为什么美国的全国选举完全没有意义。只有人民的直接反抗才能像滚雪球一样改变任何事情，而在美国，即使这样可能也不够。所以趁你还有机会，紧紧拥抱你爱的人吧。
Rob
Not to minimize the risk of nuclear war, I'd like to believe that Victoria Nuland does not speak for the President (or the Pentagon). In any event, Russia has, and will always have, "escalation dominance," and the war will end when Russia is ready for it to end.
At the same time, "Consortium News" has a piece by Joe Lauria which reports on certain NATO leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, informing Zelensky that victory is not a possibility for Ukraine and that it is time for him to seek some sort of negotiated settlement. At a minimum, this suggests that the fracture lines in the NATO alliance are getting wider--a good thing. I expect that Germany and Italy, among other nations, will be looking for an off-ramp soon.
为了将核战争的风险降到最低，我宁愿相信维多利亚.纽兰说的话不代表总统(或五角大楼)的态度。无论如何，俄罗斯拥有，并且将永远拥有将战争升级的“主导地位”，当俄罗斯准备好结束战争时，战争就会结束。与此同时，“联合新闻”有一篇由乔.劳里亚撰写的文章，报道了包括马克龙在内的某些北约领导人告诉泽连斯基，乌克兰不可能取得胜利，是时候寻求某种谈判解决方案了。至少，这表明北约联盟内部的裂痕正在扩大——这是一件好事。我预计，德国、意大利以及其他一些国家将很快开始寻找退路。
Not to minimize the risk of nuclear war, I'd like to believe that Victoria Nuland does not speak for the President (or the Pentagon). In any event, Russia has, and will always have, "escalation dominance," and the war will end when Russia is ready for it to end.
At the same time, "Consortium News" has a piece by Joe Lauria which reports on certain NATO leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, informing Zelensky that victory is not a possibility for Ukraine and that it is time for him to seek some sort of negotiated settlement. At a minimum, this suggests that the fracture lines in the NATO alliance are getting wider--a good thing. I expect that Germany and Italy, among other nations, will be looking for an off-ramp soon.
为了将核战争的风险降到最低，我宁愿相信维多利亚.纽兰说的话不代表总统(或五角大楼)的态度。无论如何，俄罗斯拥有，并且将永远拥有将战争升级的“主导地位”，当俄罗斯准备好结束战争时，战争就会结束。与此同时，“联合新闻”有一篇由乔.劳里亚撰写的文章，报道了包括马克龙在内的某些北约领导人告诉泽连斯基，乌克兰不可能取得胜利，是时候寻求某种谈判解决方案了。至少，这表明北约联盟内部的裂痕正在扩大——这是一件好事。我预计，德国、意大利以及其他一些国家将很快开始寻找退路。
unwarranted
I think your logic is flawed. If the weapons manufacturers in the U.S. can give billion dollar packages to Ukraine quarterly, Russia will be militarily stretched and socially stressed with reduced capacity to end the war on its timetable. I am not without hope. The sanctions from the U.S. and Europe are boomerangs that are impacting everyday life in Europe severely. Add to this the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline, and the pain is compounded. The West has the wealth to wage war indefinitely, but it is contingent upon European doors being open for them, and material conditions may lead to some of them being closed before they have weakened Russia to their own satisfaction.
我认为你的逻辑有缺陷。如果美国的武器制造商每个季度都能向乌克兰提供数十亿美元的一揽子援助，那么俄罗斯在军事上和社会上都将面临压力，按照时间表结束战争的可能性将会下降。美国和欧洲的制裁是严重影响欧洲日常生活的反向伤害。再加上北溪输油管道被破坏，这种痛苦变得更加严重。美国有足够的财富无限期地发动战争，但这取决于欧洲的大门是否为他们敞开，而物质条件的恶化可能会导致其中一些大门在他们削弱俄罗斯到自己满意之前被关闭。
I think your logic is flawed. If the weapons manufacturers in the U.S. can give billion dollar packages to Ukraine quarterly, Russia will be militarily stretched and socially stressed with reduced capacity to end the war on its timetable. I am not without hope. The sanctions from the U.S. and Europe are boomerangs that are impacting everyday life in Europe severely. Add to this the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline, and the pain is compounded. The West has the wealth to wage war indefinitely, but it is contingent upon European doors being open for them, and material conditions may lead to some of them being closed before they have weakened Russia to their own satisfaction.
我认为你的逻辑有缺陷。如果美国的武器制造商每个季度都能向乌克兰提供数十亿美元的一揽子援助，那么俄罗斯在军事上和社会上都将面临压力，按照时间表结束战争的可能性将会下降。美国和欧洲的制裁是严重影响欧洲日常生活的反向伤害。再加上北溪输油管道被破坏，这种痛苦变得更加严重。美国有足够的财富无限期地发动战争，但这取决于欧洲的大门是否为他们敞开，而物质条件的恶化可能会导致其中一些大门在他们削弱俄罗斯到自己满意之前被关闭。
Rob
The combined west lacks the industrial capacity to replace losses on the battlefield. I'm talking about both the United States and Europe. What the U.S. did in mobilizing its industry in World War II is no longer possible. That heavy manufacturing base has been almost completely dismantled and the work outsourced to China and elsewhere. And it's not coming back. The rules of capitalism have so decreed.
Russia, in contrast, has its heavy industry cranking out artillery, missiles, tanks and ammo 24/7 at a phenomenal pace that they appear to be able to maintain almost indefinitely. I have lost count of how many times western "experts" have assured the masses that Russia was about to run out of weapons, but it has never been true. The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition, and it's happening right in Russia's front yard. There is no doubt which side is going to prevail, assuming, that is, that the whole world doesn't get blown up first.
合并后的西方国家缺乏弥补战场损失的工业能力。我指的是美国和欧洲。美国在第二次世界大战中动员工业的做法已经不可能了。这个重型制造基地几乎完全被拆除，工作外包给了中国和其他国家。它不会再回来了。资本主义的规则就是这样规定的。相比之下，俄罗斯的重工业以惊人的速度全天候生产火炮、导弹、坦克和弹药，他们似乎能够无限期地保持这种速度。我已经记不清有多少次西方“专家”向大众保证，俄罗斯的武器即将耗尽，但这从来都不是真的。乌克兰战争是一场消耗战，而它就发生在俄罗斯的前院。哪一方会获胜毫无疑问，但前提是，整个世界不会先被炸飞。
The combined west lacks the industrial capacity to replace losses on the battlefield. I'm talking about both the United States and Europe. What the U.S. did in mobilizing its industry in World War II is no longer possible. That heavy manufacturing base has been almost completely dismantled and the work outsourced to China and elsewhere. And it's not coming back. The rules of capitalism have so decreed.
Russia, in contrast, has its heavy industry cranking out artillery, missiles, tanks and ammo 24/7 at a phenomenal pace that they appear to be able to maintain almost indefinitely. I have lost count of how many times western "experts" have assured the masses that Russia was about to run out of weapons, but it has never been true. The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition, and it's happening right in Russia's front yard. There is no doubt which side is going to prevail, assuming, that is, that the whole world doesn't get blown up first.
合并后的西方国家缺乏弥补战场损失的工业能力。我指的是美国和欧洲。美国在第二次世界大战中动员工业的做法已经不可能了。这个重型制造基地几乎完全被拆除，工作外包给了中国和其他国家。它不会再回来了。资本主义的规则就是这样规定的。相比之下，俄罗斯的重工业以惊人的速度全天候生产火炮、导弹、坦克和弹药，他们似乎能够无限期地保持这种速度。我已经记不清有多少次西方“专家”向大众保证，俄罗斯的武器即将耗尽，但这从来都不是真的。乌克兰战争是一场消耗战，而它就发生在俄罗斯的前院。哪一方会获胜毫无疑问，但前提是，整个世界不会先被炸飞。
unwarranted
I don’t pretend to have a clear picture of Russia’s capacity to manufacture arms as needed, but I think you may underestimate the west’s ability to expedite production. Ukraine is a far cry from WWII, and weapons from the west had been pouring into Ukraine since 2014. The mere fact that the proxy war was planned years ahead of the Russian invasion suggests that availability of weapons would have been a topic of keen interest.
我并不想假装对俄罗斯生产所需武器的能力有一个清晰的了解，但我认为你可能低估了西方加快生产的能力。乌克兰战争的规模与二战相差甚远，自2014年以来，来自西方的武器一直在涌入乌克兰。这场代理人战争是在俄罗斯入侵前几年就计划好的，这一事实表明，武器的可获得性将是一个引起人们极大兴趣的话题。
I don’t pretend to have a clear picture of Russia’s capacity to manufacture arms as needed, but I think you may underestimate the west’s ability to expedite production. Ukraine is a far cry from WWII, and weapons from the west had been pouring into Ukraine since 2014. The mere fact that the proxy war was planned years ahead of the Russian invasion suggests that availability of weapons would have been a topic of keen interest.
我并不想假装对俄罗斯生产所需武器的能力有一个清晰的了解，但我认为你可能低估了西方加快生产的能力。乌克兰战争的规模与二战相差甚远，自2014年以来，来自西方的武器一直在涌入乌克兰。这场代理人战争是在俄罗斯入侵前几年就计划好的，这一事实表明，武器的可获得性将是一个引起人们极大兴趣的话题。
Rob
It is an open secret that the US and NATO nations have already burned through their stocks of surplus weapons and are now dipping into their own reserves to supply Ukraine. With a little research, you can find more than a few articles containing statements from independent observers, including some defense contractors, to the effect that it is no longer possible to replace more than a small fraction of Ukraine's weapons that have been and continue to be destroyed in the field. And, let's face it, even those replacements will be destroyed in short order.
My understanding is that virtually all of Ukraine's heavy weaponry was demolished by Russian artillery in the first phase of the war. The western alliance provided replacement weapons that have been largely destroyed as well. Now Zelensky is pleading with beggar's bowl in hand for another round of replacements. One can think of Ukraine as having already lost two armies and now begging for yet a third army. At this point, Z must know that it will not be forthcoming, despite all the nice-sounding promises from NATO. The well has run dry.
一个公开的秘密是，美国和北约国家已经耗尽了过剩的武器储备，现在正在动用自己的核心储备来供应乌克兰。只要稍加研究，你就能找到不少文章，其中包含独立观察员(包括一些国防承包商)的声明，内容是乌克兰已经并将继续在战场上被摧毁的武器中，只有一小部分是不可能被替换的。而且，让我们面对现实吧，即使是这些替代品也会在短时间内被摧毁。我的理解是，在战争的第一阶段，乌克兰几乎所有的重型武器都被俄罗斯的火炮摧毁了。西方联盟提供的替代武器也基本都被摧毁了。现在泽连斯基手里拿着乞丐碗乞求再替换一批武器。人们可以把乌克兰想象成已经失去了两支军队，现在又在乞求第三支军队。在这一点上，泽连斯基必须知道，尽管北约做出了所有好听的承诺，但它不会到来。井已经干了。
It is an open secret that the US and NATO nations have already burned through their stocks of surplus weapons and are now dipping into their own reserves to supply Ukraine. With a little research, you can find more than a few articles containing statements from independent observers, including some defense contractors, to the effect that it is no longer possible to replace more than a small fraction of Ukraine's weapons that have been and continue to be destroyed in the field. And, let's face it, even those replacements will be destroyed in short order.
My understanding is that virtually all of Ukraine's heavy weaponry was demolished by Russian artillery in the first phase of the war. The western alliance provided replacement weapons that have been largely destroyed as well. Now Zelensky is pleading with beggar's bowl in hand for another round of replacements. One can think of Ukraine as having already lost two armies and now begging for yet a third army. At this point, Z must know that it will not be forthcoming, despite all the nice-sounding promises from NATO. The well has run dry.
一个公开的秘密是，美国和北约国家已经耗尽了过剩的武器储备，现在正在动用自己的核心储备来供应乌克兰。只要稍加研究，你就能找到不少文章，其中包含独立观察员(包括一些国防承包商)的声明，内容是乌克兰已经并将继续在战场上被摧毁的武器中，只有一小部分是不可能被替换的。而且，让我们面对现实吧，即使是这些替代品也会在短时间内被摧毁。我的理解是，在战争的第一阶段，乌克兰几乎所有的重型武器都被俄罗斯的火炮摧毁了。西方联盟提供的替代武器也基本都被摧毁了。现在泽连斯基手里拿着乞丐碗乞求再替换一批武器。人们可以把乌克兰想象成已经失去了两支军队，现在又在乞求第三支军队。在这一点上，泽连斯基必须知道，尽管北约做出了所有好听的承诺，但它不会到来。井已经干了。
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