观点“金融末日”:美国违约实际上会是什么样子？
正文翻译
For months you’ve heard warnings about the Very Bad Things that could happen if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. U.S. government default! Market crash! Global financial crisis!
数月来，您已经听到了有关国会未能提高债务上限可能引发的非常糟糕后果的警告。美国政府违约！股市崩盘！全球金融危机！
For months you’ve heard warnings about the Very Bad Things that could happen if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. U.S. government default! Market crash! Global financial crisis!
数月来，您已经听到了有关国会未能提高债务上限可能引发的非常糟糕后果的警告。美国政府违约！股市崩盘！全球金融危机！
That probably feels abstract, maybe even hyperbolic. Worldwide financial meltdown? Really?
这可能感觉有些抽象，甚至可能是夸大其词的。全球金融崩溃？真的吗？
这可能感觉有些抽象，甚至可能是夸大其词的。全球金融崩溃？真的吗？
I spent recent days talking to financial market experts and former government officials about the potential fallout. I wanted to better understand the channels through which panic and losses could spread and precipitate“financial Armageddon,” as one former Federal Reserve official dubbed it. (Other phrases that came up in interviews: “nightmare scenario,” “bankruptcies that rival those in the Great Depression,” and “we might have to go back to trading beads.”)To be clear: There are many unknowns. Be skeptical of ultraprecise forecasts that quantify down to a tenth of a percentage point how much, say, unemployment would rise. Consequences will also vary depending on what markets think will happen. A 24-hour default during which a debt-limit deal appears imminent is different from one in which everyone believes lawmakers may have repudiated some debt forever.
最近，我与金融市场专家和前政府官员进行了对话，以更好地了解可能引发“金融末日”的恐慌和损失传播渠道。（在采访中提到的其他短语有：“噩梦情景”、“堪比大萧条的破产”和“我们可能不得不回到原始交易的时代”。）
最近，我与金融市场专家和前政府官员进行了对话，以更好地了解可能引发“金融末日”的恐慌和损失传播渠道。（在采访中提到的其他短语有：“噩梦情景”、“堪比大萧条的破产”和“我们可能不得不回到原始交易的时代”。）
One useful lens for thinking through possible consequences was suggested by Richard Berner, a senior Treasury official during the 2011 debt-limit crisis: The global financial system is like an upside-down pyramid, and the tip of that pyramid is the U.S. Treasury market. “Everything else rests upon it,” he told me.
一种有用的思考可能后果的方法是由理查德·伯纳提出的，他是2011年债务上限危机期间的一位高级财政官员：全球金融系统就像一个倒置的金字塔，而这个金字塔的顶端是美国国债市场。他告诉我：“其他所有东西都依赖于它。”
一种有用的思考可能后果的方法是由理查德·伯纳提出的，他是2011年债务上限危机期间的一位高级财政官员：全球金融系统就像一个倒置的金字塔，而这个金字塔的顶端是美国国债市场。他告诉我：“其他所有东西都依赖于它。”
With these disclaimers, here’s a summary of what market experts relayed. Our scenario assumes the U.S. government fails to pay for not only key services such as Social Security checks and military salaries but also principle or interest on at least some U.S. Treasury securities. (It’s unclear whether the government has technical capacity to effectively prioritize payments, anyway, or if ratings agencies would care.) On to the consequences, in seven terrifying steps:
在这些免责声明的基础上，以下是市场专家传达的总结。我们的情景假设美国政府不仅无法支付关键服务，如社会保障支票和军人工资，而且无法支付至少一些美国国债证券的本金或利息。(不清楚政府是否有技术能力有效地优先支付，或者评级机构是否关心。)接下来，是七个可怕的后果：
在这些免责声明的基础上，以下是市场专家传达的总结。我们的情景假设美国政府不仅无法支付关键服务，如社会保障支票和军人工资，而且无法支付至少一些美国国债证券的本金或利息。(不清楚政府是否有技术能力有效地优先支付，或者评级机构是否关心。)接下来，是七个可怕的后果：
1) Treasurys get downgraded — as does virtually every other asset on earth.
1)国债被降级——几乎所有地球上的其他资产也被降级。
1)国债被降级——几乎所有地球上的其他资产也被降级。
U.S. Treasury debt has long been considered risk-free, with the relative riskiness of other assets benchmarked against it. So the sudden realization that Treasurys are unsafe cascades through other assets, including bonds of U.S. corporations. These bonds would be downgraded, making it more expensive for companies to borrow.
美国国债债务长期以来被认为是无风险的，其他资产的相对风险性以其为基准。因此，突然意识到国债不安全会影响其他资产，包括美国公司的债券。这些债券将被降级，使公司借款更加昂贵。
美国国债债务长期以来被认为是无风险的，其他资产的相对风险性以其为基准。因此，突然意识到国债不安全会影响其他资产，包括美国公司的债券。这些债券将被降级，使公司借款更加昂贵。
2) Interest rates rise for U.S. consumers, businesses and the government. It becomes more expensive to buy a house or invest in new equipment. Our federal debt problems — the concern supposedly motivating default threats in Congress — also worsen as debt-service costs rise. (Merely flirting with default in 2011 increased government borrowing costs by $1.3 billion that year.)
2)美国消费者、企业和政府的利率上升。购买房屋或投资新设备变得更加昂贵。我们的联邦债务问题——据称是激发国会威胁违约的关注——也会随着债务服务成本的上升而恶化。(仅仅在2011年暗示违约就使政府借款成本增加了13亿美元。)
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2)美国消费者、企业和政府的利率上升。购买房屋或投资新设备变得更加昂贵。我们的联邦债务问题——据称是激发国会威胁违约的关注——也会随着债务服务成本的上升而恶化。(仅仅在2011年暗示违约就使政府借款成本增加了13亿美元。)
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3) Global investors likely would sell U.S. dollar-denominated assets as confidence in them evaporates; the dollar might lose value in foreign-exchange markets.
3)全球投资者可能会抛售以美元计价的资产，因为对它们的信心消失了；美元可能在外汇市场上贬值。
3)全球投资者可能会抛售以美元计价的资产，因为对它们的信心消失了；美元可能在外汇市场上贬值。
4) Stock markets plummet. Investments that are even slightly risky become less attractive to hold amid so much uncertainty.
4)股票市场暴跌。在如此多的不确定性中，即使是稍微有点风险的投资也变得不那么有吸引力。
4)股票市场暴跌。在如此多的不确定性中，即使是稍微有点风险的投资也变得不那么有吸引力。
5) Companies holding Treasurys suffer hits to both revenue and balance sheets.
5)持有国债的公司的收入和资产负债表都会受到打击。
5)持有国债的公司的收入和资产负债表都会受到打击。
Companies reliant on interest payments for revenue might now have a cash-flow problem. They’ll try to borrow more to cover costs — but banks will want to hoard cash, not give out more loans, during a crisis. So these companies may have trouble paying payroll, rent and other expenses.
This could have knock-on effects for anyone expecting payments from these cash-strapped companies.
依赖利息收入的公司现在可能面临现金流问题。它们将尝试借更多款来支付成本，但在危机期间，银行会想要囤积现金而不是放贷。因此，这些公司可能会遇到支付工资、租金和其他费用的困难。这可能会对期望从这些财政紧张的公司获得付款的人产生连锁反应。
This could have knock-on effects for anyone expecting payments from these cash-strapped companies.
依赖利息收入的公司现在可能面临现金流问题。它们将尝试借更多款来支付成本，但在危机期间，银行会想要囤积现金而不是放贷。因此，这些公司可能会遇到支付工资、租金和其他费用的困难。这可能会对期望从这些财政紧张的公司获得付款的人产生连锁反应。
6) There might be a scramble to close out trades that people would otherwise hold.
6）人们可能会在本来持有交易的情况下，急于平仓。
6）人们可能会在本来持有交易的情况下，急于平仓。
Spurred by post-financial crisis regulations, Treasurys are increasingly used as collateral when people engage in other kinds of transactions — for example, to back borrowing when purchasing bonds or mortgages. If that oncerock-solid collateral suddenly drops in value, more collateral might be demanded right away — or the transaction might have to be “closed out” immediately; i.e., the loan would have to be repaid in full or the full purchase amount for the asset delivered — ASAP.
在后金融危机时期，由于监管规定的推动，国债在人们从事其他类型的交易时越来越被用作抵押品，例如在购买债券或抵押贷款时用作借款的后盾。如果曾经坚如磐石的抵押品突然贬值，更多的抵押品可能会立即被要求，或者交易可能不得不立即“平仓”，即贷款必须全额偿还，或者必须立即交付资产的全部购买金额。
在后金融危机时期，由于监管规定的推动，国债在人们从事其他类型的交易时越来越被用作抵押品，例如在购买债券或抵押贷款时用作借款的后盾。如果曾经坚如磐石的抵押品突然贬值，更多的抵押品可能会立即被要求，或者交易可能不得不立即“平仓”，即贷款必须全额偿还，或者必须立即交付资产的全部购买金额。
This is known as a margin call.
这被称为保证金追缴。
这被称为保证金追缴。
Now, imagine hordes of people being told to close out at once because everyone’s collateral has lost value. This leads to a huge sell-off across other markets because everyone is racing to get the funds their broker or lender demands in time. (“It would be like a global margin call,” Berner said.)
现在，想象一下，因为每个人的抵押品都贬值了，大量人被告知立即平仓。这导致其他市场的大规模抛售，因为每个人都在争取在经纪人或贷方要求的时间内获得资金（“这将像全球保证金追缴一样，”伯纳说）。
现在，想象一下，因为每个人的抵押品都贬值了，大量人被告知立即平仓。这导致其他市场的大规模抛售，因为每个人都在争取在经纪人或贷方要求的时间内获得资金（“这将像全球保证金追缴一样，”伯纳说）。
7) If No. 6, happens, and everyone attempts to close out their trades at once, some of the infrastructure underpinning large parts of the financial system (called “central counterparty clearinghouses”) could essentially get overwhelmed and go down. Backup plans meant to kick in may not work, as they’re not really meant for a systemic shock of this kind.
7）如果第6点发生，并且每个人都试图立即平仓，一些支撑金融系统大部分基础设施的机构（称为“中央对手方清算机构”）可能会被压垮并瘫痪。备用计划可能无法起作用，因为它们并不真正适用于这种系统性的冲击。
7）如果第6点发生，并且每个人都试图立即平仓，一些支撑金融系统大部分基础设施的机构（称为“中央对手方清算机构”）可能会被压垮并瘫痪。备用计划可能无法起作用，因为它们并不真正适用于这种系统性的冲击。
These clearinghouses are tightly interconnected with each other and other institutions and markets; most people I interviewed said they are the fastest and scariest source of contagion to the rest of the world economy.
这些清算机构与彼此和其他机构和市场紧密相互连接；大多数我采访的人都说，它们是对世界经济的最快和最可怕的传染源。
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这些清算机构与彼此和其他机构和市场紧密相互连接；大多数我采访的人都说，它们是对世界经济的最快和最可怕的传染源。
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That’s just the early-stage damage. Longer term, the United States might permanently lose its privileged economic and standing and ability to influence global affairs as we now do.
这只是早期的损害。长期而言，美国可能会永久失去其特权经济和地位，并失去我们现在所拥有的影响全球事务的能力。
这只是早期的损害。长期而言，美国可能会永久失去其特权经济和地位，并失去我们现在所拥有的影响全球事务的能力。
If you’re not afraid yet, you should be.
如果你还没有害怕，你应该害怕了。
如果你还没有害怕，你应该害怕了。
评论翻译
AnthonyGMoore442
It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007–2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with these banks is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
在1990年代末废除《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》是一个非常糟糕的决定，导致2007年至2008年金融危机期间大型银行的惨败。为了防止另一场灾难，需要立即重新建立《多德-弗兰克法案》和该法案。这些银行发生的事情只是当前情况如果不采取措施将会发生的事情的开端。
It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007–2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with these banks is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
在1990年代末废除《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》是一个非常糟糕的决定，导致2007年至2008年金融危机期间大型银行的惨败。为了防止另一场灾难，需要立即重新建立《多德-弗兰克法案》和该法案。这些银行发生的事情只是当前情况如果不采取措施将会发生的事情的开端。
dimasrahardja
The US national debt is more than $31 trillion, with 38% of it held by foreign entities. The US also has $38 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities and $17 trillion in unfunded Social Security liabilities
美国的国债超过31万亿美元，其中38%由外国实体持有。美国还有38万亿美元的无准备金医疗保险负债和17万亿美元的无准备金社会保障负债。
The US national debt is more than $31 trillion, with 38% of it held by foreign entities. The US also has $38 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities and $17 trillion in unfunded Social Security liabilities
美国的国债超过31万亿美元，其中38%由外国实体持有。美国还有38万亿美元的无准备金医疗保险负债和17万亿美元的无准备金社会保障负债。
The US dollar is the dominant reserve currency, backed by its perceived strength, allowing the US to print unlimited dollars as long as the world maintains trust in it. The US dollar is the backbone of US power, and any actions that undermine confidence in the currency threaten to destabilize its position of dominance. Each unilateral sanction imposed by the US risk damaging the stability and credibility of the US dollar, leading to dire consequences for the nation's power and influence. The US is the only country actively undermining the strength of the US dollar. The freezing of Russia's $300 billion currency reserve by Western governments may lead countries to reconsider investing their funds in US Treasury bonds.
美元是主导的储备货币，受其被认为的强势支持，允许美国随意印刷美元，只要世界维持对其的信任。美元是美国力量的支柱，任何破坏对该货币信心的行动都会威胁其主导地位的稳定性。美国采取的每项单边制裁都有可能破坏美元的稳定性和可信度，从而对国家的力量和影响力产生严重后果。美国是唯一积极削弱美元实力的国家。西方政府冻结俄罗斯3000亿美元货币储备可能会促使各国重新考虑将资金投资于美国国债。
美元是主导的储备货币，受其被认为的强势支持，允许美国随意印刷美元，只要世界维持对其的信任。美元是美国力量的支柱，任何破坏对该货币信心的行动都会威胁其主导地位的稳定性。美国采取的每项单边制裁都有可能破坏美元的稳定性和可信度，从而对国家的力量和影响力产生严重后果。美国是唯一积极削弱美元实力的国家。西方政府冻结俄罗斯3000亿美元货币储备可能会促使各国重新考虑将资金投资于美国国债。
A significant portion of US dollars is held outside the US, estimated at 60-70% of all US dollars in circulation, due to its status as the dominant reserve currency and wide use in international trade and finance. The one trillion dollar trade deficit of the US is a consequence of being the reserve currency, as a strong dollar makes it difficult for US businesses to export goods and services while simultaneously making it easier for other countries to sell to the US. Countries are shipping goods to the US in exchange for green pieces of paper.
美元的相当大部分持有量位于美国境外，据估计，所有在流通的美元中有60-70％位于海外，这是由于其作为主导储备货币和广泛用于国际贸易和金融的地位。美国1万亿美元的贸易逆差是作为储备货币的后果，强劲的美元使美国企业难以出口商品和服务，同时让其他国家更容易向美国销售商品。各国在交换绿色纸片时将商品运往美国。
美元的相当大部分持有量位于美国境外，据估计，所有在流通的美元中有60-70％位于海外，这是由于其作为主导储备货币和广泛用于国际贸易和金融的地位。美国1万亿美元的贸易逆差是作为储备货币的后果，强劲的美元使美国企业难以出口商品和服务，同时让其他国家更容易向美国销售商品。各国在交换绿色纸片时将商品运往美国。
The US budget deficit is $1.38 trillion in 2022 which must be paid for by selling more Treasury bonds. The interest on this debt is greater than the military budget. To pay the interest on its debt, the government sells more Treasury bonds, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. The US printing of dollars has been exporting inflation in other countries for decades, but will eventually increase US inflation. Raising interest rates to fight inflation decreases consumer and business spending, increases the trade deficit, and higher interest payments on government debt. Other countries will respond to the US raising of interest rate by raising their interest rate, risking global recession. The Plaza Accord addressed this issue in the past, but it will be challenging to implement such measures now.
美国2022年的预算赤字为1.38万亿美元，必须通过出售更多的国债来支付。这种债务的利息比军事预算还要高。为了支付其债务的利息，政府出售更多的国债，导致债务增长的循环。美国多年来一直在输出通胀，但最终会增加美国的通胀率。为了抵制通胀，提高利率会减少消费者和企业支出，增加贸易逆差，以及增加政府债务的利息支出。其他国家将会响应美国加息而提高自己的利率，有可能引发全球经济衰退。过去的广场协议解决了这个问题，但现在实施这样的措施将很有挑战性。
美国2022年的预算赤字为1.38万亿美元，必须通过出售更多的国债来支付。这种债务的利息比军事预算还要高。为了支付其债务的利息，政府出售更多的国债，导致债务增长的循环。美国多年来一直在输出通胀，但最终会增加美国的通胀率。为了抵制通胀，提高利率会减少消费者和企业支出，增加贸易逆差，以及增加政府债务的利息支出。其他国家将会响应美国加息而提高自己的利率，有可能引发全球经济衰退。过去的广场协议解决了这个问题，但现在实施这样的措施将很有挑战性。
A well-run country collects taxes to fund essential services and infrastructure. In the US political system, wealthy corporations and individuals can lobby for tax breaks. The shortfall in funding for the US government has reached $31 trillion. Instead of collecting taxes from wealthy corporations and individuals, the government pays interest to them.
一个管理良好的国家应该通过征税来资助基本服务和基础设施建设。在美国的政治体系中，富裕的公司和个人可以游说政府为他们减税。美国政府的财政赤字已经达到了31万亿美元，而不是从富裕的公司和个人那里征税，政府反而支付了他们的利息。
一个管理良好的国家应该通过征税来资助基本服务和基础设施建设。在美国的政治体系中，富裕的公司和个人可以游说政府为他们减税。美国政府的财政赤字已经达到了31万亿美元，而不是从富裕的公司和个人那里征税，政府反而支付了他们的利息。
Banks hold Treasury bonds for their safety, liquidity, regulatory compliance, and potential profitability. When interest rates on Treasury bonds rise sharply, the decrease in bond values reduces liquidity and makes it harder for banks to raise cash quickly. This causes depositors to lose confidence, triggering a bank run. In response to the current bank run, the government is issuing Treasury bonds to raise funds to compensate depositors for any lost funds. There are $19 trillion in deposits in US banks. The estimated unrealized loss on these treasuries is $1.7 trillion. The total size of US banks' equity is $2.1 trillion.
银行持有国债，以确保安全性、流动性、监管合规性和潜在的盈利能力。当国债利率急剧上升时，债券价值下降会减少流动性，使银行难以快速筹集现金。这会导致存款人失去信心，从而引发银行挤兑。为了应对当前的银行挤兑，政府正在发行国债筹集资金，以赔偿任何失去资金的存款人。美国银行的存款总额为19万亿美元。这些国债的估计未实现损失为1.7万亿美元。美国银行的股本总额为2.1万亿美元。
银行持有国债，以确保安全性、流动性、监管合规性和潜在的盈利能力。当国债利率急剧上升时，债券价值下降会减少流动性，使银行难以快速筹集现金。这会导致存款人失去信心，从而引发银行挤兑。为了应对当前的银行挤兑，政府正在发行国债筹集资金，以赔偿任何失去资金的存款人。美国银行的存款总额为19万亿美元。这些国债的估计未实现损失为1.7万亿美元。美国银行的股本总额为2.1万亿美元。
The new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) help prevents discounted bondholders from taking losses when they have to sell them urgently. The BTFP accepts discounted bonds at face value to be used as pledges for loans to inject more money into the economy. More inflation.
新的银行定期融资计划（BTFP）有助于防止折价债券持有者在不得不急于出售债券时承受损失。BTFP以票面价值接受折价债券作为贷款的抵押品，注入更多的资金到经济中。这会导致更多的通货膨胀。
新的银行定期融资计划（BTFP）有助于防止折价债券持有者在不得不急于出售债券时承受损失。BTFP以票面价值接受折价债券作为贷款的抵押品，注入更多的资金到经济中。这会导致更多的通货膨胀。
terryjudge855
The ongoing banking crisis is far from reaching a resolution. Those with more than a decade of experience understand that credit crises do not dissipate within a mere two weeks. It's amusing to witness some people believing that everything has already concluded so swiftly. We are currently witnessing a credit contraction that will inevitably result in a substantial overall contraction.
目前的银行危机远未得到解决。有着十多年经验的人都知道信贷危机不可能在短短两周内消失。看到有人认为一切都迅速结束了，这是令人感到有趣的。我们目前正在目睹一个信贷收缩，这将不可避免地导致一个大规模的总体收缩。
The ongoing banking crisis is far from reaching a resolution. Those with more than a decade of experience understand that credit crises do not dissipate within a mere two weeks. It's amusing to witness some people believing that everything has already concluded so swiftly. We are currently witnessing a credit contraction that will inevitably result in a substantial overall contraction.
目前的银行危机远未得到解决。有着十多年经验的人都知道信贷危机不可能在短短两周内消失。看到有人认为一切都迅速结束了，这是令人感到有趣的。我们目前正在目睹一个信贷收缩，这将不可避免地导致一个大规模的总体收缩。
IvliaVespa
At least international banks keep their eye on what's happening in the US. I know that it was thinks to my brother's bank that he got his money out of the Silicon Valley bank [where it had been invested] before everything was lost. Just grateful that his NZ bank saw what was happening and managed to save all their customers' monies from the collapse because I somehow doubt the US treasury would have been keen to compensate them when the bank closed.
国际银行至少会关注美国的情况。我知道是因为我兄弟的银行，他将钱投资在硅谷银行，才得以在一切损失之前将钱取出。我很感激他的新西兰银行看到了正在发生的事情，并成功挽救了所有客户的资金，避免了银行的崩溃，因为我不确定美国财政部是否愿意在银行关闭时对他们进行赔偿。
At least international banks keep their eye on what's happening in the US. I know that it was thinks to my brother's bank that he got his money out of the Silicon Valley bank [where it had been invested] before everything was lost. Just grateful that his NZ bank saw what was happening and managed to save all their customers' monies from the collapse because I somehow doubt the US treasury would have been keen to compensate them when the bank closed.
国际银行至少会关注美国的情况。我知道是因为我兄弟的银行，他将钱投资在硅谷银行，才得以在一切损失之前将钱取出。我很感激他的新西兰银行看到了正在发生的事情，并成功挽救了所有客户的资金，避免了银行的崩溃，因为我不确定美国财政部是否愿意在银行关闭时对他们进行赔偿。
cliffbarber1642
How can any banking analyst with a straight face say that the banking industry is stronger than ever when, as a result of the recent bailouts and buyouts we have returned, once again, to a small set of “too big to fail banks” who operate, at least in the case of the US, in a still improperly regulated market. We just do NOT learn from history. It beggars belief.
任何一位银行业分析师怎么能一本正经地说银行业比以往任何时候都更强大呢？在最近的纾困和收购行动中，我们再次回到了一小批“太大而不能倒”的银行，这些银行在美国，至少在一个仍未经妥善监管的市场中运作。我们根本就没有从历史中吸取教训，这真是难以置信。
How can any banking analyst with a straight face say that the banking industry is stronger than ever when, as a result of the recent bailouts and buyouts we have returned, once again, to a small set of “too big to fail banks” who operate, at least in the case of the US, in a still improperly regulated market. We just do NOT learn from history. It beggars belief.
任何一位银行业分析师怎么能一本正经地说银行业比以往任何时候都更强大呢？在最近的纾困和收购行动中，我们再次回到了一小批“太大而不能倒”的银行，这些银行在美国，至少在一个仍未经妥善监管的市场中运作。我们根本就没有从历史中吸取教训，这真是难以置信。
tothehorror5135
REMEMBER! If your bank becomes cutthroat with High Interest Rates on your Loans, then its better to Withdraw all your money to pay off the loan, so they can't put you into more debt and you'll deny them the power as the Lender. Every action has its equal reaction.
记住！如果你的银行对你的贷款采取了高利率，那么最好把所有的钱取出来来还清贷款，这样他们就无法让你陷入更多的债务，你也会剥夺他们作为放贷人的权力。每一个行动都有其相同的反应。
REMEMBER! If your bank becomes cutthroat with High Interest Rates on your Loans, then its better to Withdraw all your money to pay off the loan, so they can't put you into more debt and you'll deny them the power as the Lender. Every action has its equal reaction.
记住！如果你的银行对你的贷款采取了高利率，那么最好把所有的钱取出来来还清贷款，这样他们就无法让你陷入更多的债务，你也会剥夺他们作为放贷人的权力。每一个行动都有其相同的反应。
paouvous
It is shocking to realise that any rumour can spark a bank run and destroy an ethically run bank in the 21st century. As fas as I can understand First Republic was a bread and butter bank holding long term bonds and good quality loans. If this keeps on, banking is dead. It happened in Europe and the ECB pretty much fully covers banks for liquidity problems with cheap short term financing.
在21世纪，任何谣言都可能引发银行风险，并摧毁一个正经经营的银行，这是令人震惊的事实。据我所知，第一共和银行是一家持有长期债券和高质量贷款的基础银行。如果这种情况继续发生，银行业将会垮掉。这在欧洲已经发生过，欧洲央行几乎完全覆盖了银行的流动性问题，提供廉价的短期融资
It is shocking to realise that any rumour can spark a bank run and destroy an ethically run bank in the 21st century. As fas as I can understand First Republic was a bread and butter bank holding long term bonds and good quality loans. If this keeps on, banking is dead. It happened in Europe and the ECB pretty much fully covers banks for liquidity problems with cheap short term financing.
在21世纪，任何谣言都可能引发银行风险，并摧毁一个正经经营的银行，这是令人震惊的事实。据我所知，第一共和银行是一家持有长期债券和高质量贷款的基础银行。如果这种情况继续发生，银行业将会垮掉。这在欧洲已经发生过，欧洲央行几乎完全覆盖了银行的流动性问题，提供廉价的短期融资
sosume5
Its also cased by extremely high property taxes, insurance rates, fuel at the pump and groceries. The people are being crushed and hammered at every turn. Including federal taxes. All 3 beanches have thier hands in the cookie jar, and are forcing us to pay. Even for things we don't need or even want.
这也是由于极高的房地产税、保险费、油价和日用品价格造成的。人们在每一个方面都被压垮和打击。包括联邦税。所有三个分支机构都有份参与，并迫使我们支付。甚至为了我们不需要或不想要的东西也要付费。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Its also cased by extremely high property taxes, insurance rates, fuel at the pump and groceries. The people are being crushed and hammered at every turn. Including federal taxes. All 3 beanches have thier hands in the cookie jar, and are forcing us to pay. Even for things we don't need or even want.
这也是由于极高的房地产税、保险费、油价和日用品价格造成的。人们在每一个方面都被压垮和打击。包括联邦税。所有三个分支机构都有份参与，并迫使我们支付。甚至为了我们不需要或不想要的东西也要付费。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
ubiquitous8947
The US banking crisis has multiple problems. Inflation also raises interest rates, lending issues related to rental vacancy rates, and protection of more than $250,000, but money is being moved to Apple's savings account, which has a high interest rate. Apps such as China's TikTok are full of false information, which is also a problem in the United States, so strong sanctions in the United States regarding Chinese apps are required.
美国的银行危机有多种问题。通货膨胀也提高了利率，与租金空置率有关的贷款问题，以及超过25万美元的保护，但钱被转移到苹果的储蓄账户，这有很高的利息。中国的TikTok等应用程序充满了虚假信息，这在美国也是一个问题，所以美国需要对中国的应用程序进行强有力的制裁。
The US banking crisis has multiple problems. Inflation also raises interest rates, lending issues related to rental vacancy rates, and protection of more than $250,000, but money is being moved to Apple's savings account, which has a high interest rate. Apps such as China's TikTok are full of false information, which is also a problem in the United States, so strong sanctions in the United States regarding Chinese apps are required.
美国的银行危机有多种问题。通货膨胀也提高了利率，与租金空置率有关的贷款问题，以及超过25万美元的保护，但钱被转移到苹果的储蓄账户，这有很高的利息。中国的TikTok等应用程序充满了虚假信息，这在美国也是一个问题，所以美国需要对中国的应用程序进行强有力的制裁。
larry-2
The way I see this recession most likely has an external cause. The United States is losing influence as a federal currency for the first time in decades. They don’t have any economies to utilize to control their inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than previously. They all lend credence to the hypothesis that a new multilateral world order may be in the works.
我认为这次经济衰退很可能有一个外部原因。美国作为联邦货币正在失去影响力，这是几十年来首次出现这种情况。他们没有任何经济来控制通货膨胀，而且现在花在股票和石油交易上的资金比以前少了。这一切都支持一种假设，即一个新的多边世界秩序可能正在形成。
The way I see this recession most likely has an external cause. The United States is losing influence as a federal currency for the first time in decades. They don’t have any economies to utilize to control their inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than previously. They all lend credence to the hypothesis that a new multilateral world order may be in the works.
我认为这次经济衰退很可能有一个外部原因。美国作为联邦货币正在失去影响力，这是几十年来首次出现这种情况。他们没有任何经济来控制通货膨胀，而且现在花在股票和石油交易上的资金比以前少了。这一切都支持一种假设，即一个新的多边世界秩序可能正在形成。
cinemaipswich4636
The 2% target rate of the Fed was there to ensure that small banks could keep their doors open. The Fed ran interest rate to zero for years, ensuring that the small banks would collapse. Depositors money, by law, is only allowed to be invested in AAA rated T-Bonds. The Fed is owned by the Big Boy banks. They are now scooping up all the customers and all the assets. All debt will now be added to the national debt (taxpayers). Privatise the profits, and Socialise the losses, yet again.
美联储设立2％的目标利率旨在确保小银行能够继续营业。然而，美联储将利率降至零，长达数年，导致小银行崩溃。根据法律规定，存款人的钱只能被投资于AAA评级的国债。美联储由大型银行拥有，它们正在抢夺所有客户和所有资产。所有的债务现在将被计入国家债务中（由纳税人承担）。再次私有化利润，社会化损失。
The 2% target rate of the Fed was there to ensure that small banks could keep their doors open. The Fed ran interest rate to zero for years, ensuring that the small banks would collapse. Depositors money, by law, is only allowed to be invested in AAA rated T-Bonds. The Fed is owned by the Big Boy banks. They are now scooping up all the customers and all the assets. All debt will now be added to the national debt (taxpayers). Privatise the profits, and Socialise the losses, yet again.
美联储设立2％的目标利率旨在确保小银行能够继续营业。然而，美联储将利率降至零，长达数年，导致小银行崩溃。根据法律规定，存款人的钱只能被投资于AAA评级的国债。美联储由大型银行拥有，它们正在抢夺所有客户和所有资产。所有的债务现在将被计入国家债务中（由纳税人承担）。再次私有化利润，社会化损失。
patelseng
Instability, inflation, and poverty are all consequences of the current economic system. It is necessary to develop a new economic frxwork for the Creative Society that can ensure everyone's stability, security, and high standard of living. But regrettably, that is the time to be most afraid because that is when the people in charge of our country appear on TV to reassure us that everything is under control. Saddening...
目前的经济系统导致了不稳定、通胀和贫困等后果。需要为创造性社会开发一种新的经济框架，以确保每个人的稳定、安全和高水平的生活。但不幸的是，这也是最让人害怕的时候，因为此时掌管我们国家的人会出现在电视上，向我们保证一切都在控制之下。这令人悲伤...
Instability, inflation, and poverty are all consequences of the current economic system. It is necessary to develop a new economic frxwork for the Creative Society that can ensure everyone's stability, security, and high standard of living. But regrettably, that is the time to be most afraid because that is when the people in charge of our country appear on TV to reassure us that everything is under control. Saddening...
目前的经济系统导致了不稳定、通胀和贫困等后果。需要为创造性社会开发一种新的经济框架，以确保每个人的稳定、安全和高水平的生活。但不幸的是，这也是最让人害怕的时候，因为此时掌管我们国家的人会出现在电视上，向我们保证一切都在控制之下。这令人悲伤...
DaveEPie
Kinda of ironic that the US bailed out the UK bond market (pension funds) just a few months ago.
That was one of the triggers.
Those zero percent rate by the ECB FED for 7 years basically build a house of cards.
All coming down with 4.5 interest rates.
Gold up 30% in 6 months.
Your pound and the usd are losing value by the hour.
有点讽刺的是，美国在几个月前救助了英国的债券市场（养老基金），这是其中一个导致问题的触发点。欧洲央行和美联储七年来的零利率政策基本上建立了一座纸牌屋，现在随着4.5%的利率而倒塌。金价在六个月内上涨了30%。英镑和美元每小时都在贬值。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Kinda of ironic that the US bailed out the UK bond market (pension funds) just a few months ago.
That was one of the triggers.
Those zero percent rate by the ECB FED for 7 years basically build a house of cards.
All coming down with 4.5 interest rates.
Gold up 30% in 6 months.
Your pound and the usd are losing value by the hour.
有点讽刺的是，美国在几个月前救助了英国的债券市场（养老基金），这是其中一个导致问题的触发点。欧洲央行和美联储七年来的零利率政策基本上建立了一座纸牌屋，现在随着4.5%的利率而倒塌。金价在六个月内上涨了30%。英镑和美元每小时都在贬值。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
alap1983
As long as the US has "Petro Dollars", its Banks can continue to work poorly and reward themselves handsomely while the US Government Assures the Tax-Payers that everything is well and good.
The US Financial System is functioning because it can essentially outsource its inflation and threaten its partners MORE than it threatens its enemies.
The US Banking System's failures have occurred like clock-work. But nothing is done to actually fix the system because that would expose MULTIPLE issues that are unethical, immoral, and illegal..
只要美国有“石油美元”，它的银行就可以继续糟糕地运作并丰厚地奖励自己，而美国政府则向纳税人保证一切都很好。美国金融系统之所以运作正常，是因为它基本上可以外包它的通货膨胀并威胁其伙伴，而不是威胁其敌人。美国银行系统的失败发生得如此准时。但是，由于这将揭露多个不道德和非法问题，所以没有任何实际修复该系统的行动。
As long as the US has "Petro Dollars", its Banks can continue to work poorly and reward themselves handsomely while the US Government Assures the Tax-Payers that everything is well and good.
The US Financial System is functioning because it can essentially outsource its inflation and threaten its partners MORE than it threatens its enemies.
The US Banking System's failures have occurred like clock-work. But nothing is done to actually fix the system because that would expose MULTIPLE issues that are unethical, immoral, and illegal..
只要美国有“石油美元”，它的银行就可以继续糟糕地运作并丰厚地奖励自己，而美国政府则向纳税人保证一切都很好。美国金融系统之所以运作正常，是因为它基本上可以外包它的通货膨胀并威胁其伙伴，而不是威胁其敌人。美国银行系统的失败发生得如此准时。但是，由于这将揭露多个不道德和非法问题，所以没有任何实际修复该系统的行动。
peaceisgood9639
US and glogal banks are in good shape. Not sure why some journaists like talking about doom and gloom. No doubt shockwaves in one bank or even the talk of it sends bad signals to a few other banks but quick recovery will not be a big deal as far as the political system and the entire health of the economy inlcuding unemployment, GDP, and wealth distribution via tas system are not bad.
美国和全球银行处于良好状态，不确定为什么一些记者喜欢谈论厄运和黑暗。毫无疑问，一个银行的冲击波，甚至是对它的谈论，会向其他一些银行发送不良信号，但是只要政治体制和整个经济的健康状况（包括失业率、GDP和通过税收制度进行的财富分配）不糟糕，快速恢复将不会成为大问题。
US and glogal banks are in good shape. Not sure why some journaists like talking about doom and gloom. No doubt shockwaves in one bank or even the talk of it sends bad signals to a few other banks but quick recovery will not be a big deal as far as the political system and the entire health of the economy inlcuding unemployment, GDP, and wealth distribution via tas system are not bad.
美国和全球银行处于良好状态，不确定为什么一些记者喜欢谈论厄运和黑暗。毫无疑问，一个银行的冲击波，甚至是对它的谈论，会向其他一些银行发送不良信号，但是只要政治体制和整个经济的健康状况（包括失业率、GDP和通过税收制度进行的财富分配）不糟糕，快速恢复将不会成为大问题。
enthused7591
That "monetary excess" the guy refers to happened at an already-new organic all-time high stock market AND housing market from early 2020, meaning we took an economic cycle peak and effectively doubled it in 2 years, right as it was nearing a minor correction on its own. This is a bubble that's effectively 40% larger than the 2008 great financial crisis in terms of housing value relative to people's incomes- which is by far and away the most important metric to track. People are getting mortgages equivalent to 45+% of their take home pay - double what it should be. What makes this even worse is that everyone is on the hook for 40% SIMULTANEOUS price increases in groceries, basic essential consumables, utilities, vehicles, insurance, and property taxes, which will compound this consumer spending stoppage and cause unemployment to be higher than it was in 2008-2010. Folks, this will 110% be worse than 2008. Buckle up.
这个人提到的“货币过剩”发生在2020年初股市和房市已经创下历史新高的情况下，这意味着我们在经济周期的顶峰上，将其效果翻了一倍，并且在它自己即将发生小幅调整的情况下。这是一个泡沫，相对于人们的收入来说，住房价值比2008年金融危机要高出40%以上，这是追踪的最重要的指标。人们的抵押贷款相当于他们的收入的45%以上，是应有水平的两倍。更糟糕的是，每个人都要承担40%的物价上涨，包括食品、基本日用品、公用事业、车辆、保险和物业税，这将加剧消费支出停滞，导致失业率高于2008-2010年。各位，这将是比2008年更糟糕的情况。做好准备。
That "monetary excess" the guy refers to happened at an already-new organic all-time high stock market AND housing market from early 2020, meaning we took an economic cycle peak and effectively doubled it in 2 years, right as it was nearing a minor correction on its own. This is a bubble that's effectively 40% larger than the 2008 great financial crisis in terms of housing value relative to people's incomes- which is by far and away the most important metric to track. People are getting mortgages equivalent to 45+% of their take home pay - double what it should be. What makes this even worse is that everyone is on the hook for 40% SIMULTANEOUS price increases in groceries, basic essential consumables, utilities, vehicles, insurance, and property taxes, which will compound this consumer spending stoppage and cause unemployment to be higher than it was in 2008-2010. Folks, this will 110% be worse than 2008. Buckle up.
这个人提到的“货币过剩”发生在2020年初股市和房市已经创下历史新高的情况下，这意味着我们在经济周期的顶峰上，将其效果翻了一倍，并且在它自己即将发生小幅调整的情况下。这是一个泡沫，相对于人们的收入来说，住房价值比2008年金融危机要高出40%以上，这是追踪的最重要的指标。人们的抵押贷款相当于他们的收入的45%以上，是应有水平的两倍。更糟糕的是，每个人都要承担40%的物价上涨，包括食品、基本日用品、公用事业、车辆、保险和物业税，这将加剧消费支出停滞，导致失业率高于2008-2010年。各位，这将是比2008年更糟糕的情况。做好准备。
joechow3338
This kind of bank run, to the rest of the World, is disastrous but it also is a phenomenon of economic down turn of the US hegemony in global economics. For decades, the Fed's fiscal policy is the interest rate manipulation to adjust the value of the Greenback. The devastating effects of the interest rate instrument used by the Fed Reserve govern other countries exchange rates relative to the Dollar. The combined effects of the Pandemic and the Ukraine War push the Fed's interest rate sky rocketing as a means to combat US Domestic inflation surge in a land sliding scale. The cause of such a landslide in inflation, led by raising the country's debt ceiling (printing more money regardless), certainly one should blame the Biden Administration's inability and incompetence to foresee or to halt the US's economic decline. Put it bluntly, the US will not be confronted with this catastrophic bank situation without committing itself to almost an unlimited support in the Russia-Nato conflict - the Ukraine War is not a Russia military aggression alone unilaterally!
这种银行挤兑对全世界来说是灾难性的，但也是美国霸权在全球经济中衰退的一种现象。几十年来，美联储的财政政策就是通过利率操纵来调整美元的价值。利率工具对美联储以外的其他国家的汇率产生了毁灭性的影响。大流行和乌克兰战争的综合影响导致美联储的利率飙升，以应对美国国内通货膨胀的激增。这种通货膨胀的滑坡原因在于提高国家的债务上限（不管是印刷更多货币还是其他手段），显然应该归咎于拜登政府无法预见或阻止美国的经济衰退的无能和不称职。坦白地说，如果美国不投入几乎无限的支持来参与俄罗斯和北约的冲突，美国将不会面临这种灾难性的银行危机——乌克兰战争不是单方面的俄罗斯军事侵略！
This kind of bank run, to the rest of the World, is disastrous but it also is a phenomenon of economic down turn of the US hegemony in global economics. For decades, the Fed's fiscal policy is the interest rate manipulation to adjust the value of the Greenback. The devastating effects of the interest rate instrument used by the Fed Reserve govern other countries exchange rates relative to the Dollar. The combined effects of the Pandemic and the Ukraine War push the Fed's interest rate sky rocketing as a means to combat US Domestic inflation surge in a land sliding scale. The cause of such a landslide in inflation, led by raising the country's debt ceiling (printing more money regardless), certainly one should blame the Biden Administration's inability and incompetence to foresee or to halt the US's economic decline. Put it bluntly, the US will not be confronted with this catastrophic bank situation without committing itself to almost an unlimited support in the Russia-Nato conflict - the Ukraine War is not a Russia military aggression alone unilaterally!
这种银行挤兑对全世界来说是灾难性的，但也是美国霸权在全球经济中衰退的一种现象。几十年来，美联储的财政政策就是通过利率操纵来调整美元的价值。利率工具对美联储以外的其他国家的汇率产生了毁灭性的影响。大流行和乌克兰战争的综合影响导致美联储的利率飙升，以应对美国国内通货膨胀的激增。这种通货膨胀的滑坡原因在于提高国家的债务上限（不管是印刷更多货币还是其他手段），显然应该归咎于拜登政府无法预见或阻止美国的经济衰退的无能和不称职。坦白地说，如果美国不投入几乎无限的支持来参与俄罗斯和北约的冲突，美国将不会面临这种灾难性的银行危机——乌克兰战争不是单方面的俄罗斯军事侵略！
rudyalfonsus686
i pity all the innocent americans. they just don't know how corrupt their government are. how does a bridge in usa can cost 10 billions usd while in another country the same quality bridge only cost 3 billions, if ever they do audit to their developers. Every constructions in USA always consist one word in their financial report, 'GOODWILL', and funny thing is it is allowed in usa. The politicians in USA are very clever to make regulations to protect themself.
我对所有无辜的美国人感到遗憾。他们只是不知道他们的政府有多么腐败。在美国，一座桥梁的造价可能高达100亿美元，而在其他国家，同等质量的桥梁只需30亿美元，如果他们对开发商进行审计的话。在美国，每项建设项目的财务报告中总是会出现一个词——"商誉"，有趣的是，在美国这是被允许的。美国的政治家非常聪明，他们制定法规来保护自己。
i pity all the innocent americans. they just don't know how corrupt their government are. how does a bridge in usa can cost 10 billions usd while in another country the same quality bridge only cost 3 billions, if ever they do audit to their developers. Every constructions in USA always consist one word in their financial report, 'GOODWILL', and funny thing is it is allowed in usa. The politicians in USA are very clever to make regulations to protect themself.
我对所有无辜的美国人感到遗憾。他们只是不知道他们的政府有多么腐败。在美国，一座桥梁的造价可能高达100亿美元，而在其他国家，同等质量的桥梁只需30亿美元，如果他们对开发商进行审计的话。在美国，每项建设项目的财务报告中总是会出现一个词——"商誉"，有趣的是，在美国这是被允许的。美国的政治家非常聪明，他们制定法规来保护自己。
Evildr
La directrice générale du FMI, Kristalina Geogieva, a noté que le monde abandonnait le dollar.
Bien sûr, elle pense comme un directeur de casino: quelle différence cela fait-il, pour quel argent et quels jetons ils joueront, car l'essentiel est ce qu'il y a dans cette institution. Mais le dollar s'en va, une autre monnaie viendra à sa place. Georgieva n'en souffrira pas, restant la directrice générale.
Tout le monde a déjà compris que la dé-dolorisation est en marche, que de nombreux pays abandonnent le dollar, car c'est une monnaie toxique, absolument opportuniste, qui sert à atteindre des obxtifs politiques plutôt que financiers.
Nous n'enterrons pas le dollar maintenant, nous n'enterrons pas les États-Unis, nous l'avons souligné à maintes reprises avec vous, mais disons que le processus de complète dé-dolorisation et d'acquisition de la souveraineté, tant financière, politique qu'économique, a commencé. Et je suis très heureux que le distingué directeur général du Fonds monétaire soit avec nous dans cette compréhension.
Si les réserves des autres pays seront inférieures à 40% des fonds en dollars, la situation deviendra déjà critique pour les Etats-Unis. Dans ce cas, les États-Unis se transformeront en une puissance financière régionale, car ce sont ces valeurs qui fournissent la balance commerciale extérieure élémentaire du pays, mais ne s'appliquent pas aux autres États.
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·格奥尔基耶娃指出，世界正在抛弃美元。
当然，她像赌场经理一样思考：“他们将用什么钱和筹码进行交易并不重要，重要的是这个机构中有什么。”但美元正在消失，另一种货币将取而代之。格奥尔基耶娃将不会受到影响，仍然是总裁。
众所周知，脱美元化正在进行中，许多国家正在放弃美元，因为它是一种有毒的、绝对机会主义的货币，更多是用于实现政治目标而不是金融目标。
我们现在不会埋葬美元，我们也不会埋葬美国，我们已经多次强调过了，但是可以说脱美元化和获得金融、政治和经济主权的进程已经开始。我很高兴国际货币基金组织的尊敬总裁能够与我们在这方面有共识。
如果其他国家的储备资金低于美元资金的40％，那么对美国来说情况就已经变得危急了。在这种情况下，美国将变成一个区域金融大国，因为这些价值提供了国家基本的对外商业平衡，但并不适用于其他国家。
La directrice générale du FMI, Kristalina Geogieva, a noté que le monde abandonnait le dollar.
Bien sûr, elle pense comme un directeur de casino: quelle différence cela fait-il, pour quel argent et quels jetons ils joueront, car l'essentiel est ce qu'il y a dans cette institution. Mais le dollar s'en va, une autre monnaie viendra à sa place. Georgieva n'en souffrira pas, restant la directrice générale.
Tout le monde a déjà compris que la dé-dolorisation est en marche, que de nombreux pays abandonnent le dollar, car c'est une monnaie toxique, absolument opportuniste, qui sert à atteindre des obxtifs politiques plutôt que financiers.
Nous n'enterrons pas le dollar maintenant, nous n'enterrons pas les États-Unis, nous l'avons souligné à maintes reprises avec vous, mais disons que le processus de complète dé-dolorisation et d'acquisition de la souveraineté, tant financière, politique qu'économique, a commencé. Et je suis très heureux que le distingué directeur général du Fonds monétaire soit avec nous dans cette compréhension.
Si les réserves des autres pays seront inférieures à 40% des fonds en dollars, la situation deviendra déjà critique pour les Etats-Unis. Dans ce cas, les États-Unis se transformeront en une puissance financière régionale, car ce sont ces valeurs qui fournissent la balance commerciale extérieure élémentaire du pays, mais ne s'appliquent pas aux autres États.
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·格奥尔基耶娃指出，世界正在抛弃美元。
当然，她像赌场经理一样思考：“他们将用什么钱和筹码进行交易并不重要，重要的是这个机构中有什么。”但美元正在消失，另一种货币将取而代之。格奥尔基耶娃将不会受到影响，仍然是总裁。
众所周知，脱美元化正在进行中，许多国家正在放弃美元，因为它是一种有毒的、绝对机会主义的货币，更多是用于实现政治目标而不是金融目标。
我们现在不会埋葬美元，我们也不会埋葬美国，我们已经多次强调过了，但是可以说脱美元化和获得金融、政治和经济主权的进程已经开始。我很高兴国际货币基金组织的尊敬总裁能够与我们在这方面有共识。
如果其他国家的储备资金低于美元资金的40％，那么对美国来说情况就已经变得危急了。在这种情况下，美国将变成一个区域金融大国，因为这些价值提供了国家基本的对外商业平衡，但并不适用于其他国家。
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